Impact case study database

The Government of Nepal and the UN recognise earthquakes and landslides, along with flooding and drought, as major obstacles to Nepal’s national development priorities (evidence source E1). The Durham research on earthquake-triggered landslide hazard has underpinned key elements of the humanitarian response to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake by the Government, the FCDO, and the UN, and has been used to guide the Government’s geohazard assessment and reconstruction efforts across the entire earthquake-affected region. In parallel, the research on earthquake scenario ensembles forms the scientific basis for national-scale humanitarian contingency planning for the next major earthquake by the UN, the Government, and all major international NGOs in the country. We examine each of these separate areas of impact below.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2015 earthquake, the landslide maps ( R3) and associated guidance notes based on prior experience ( R1, R5) were used by a range of beneficiaries to understand the hazard and improve the immediate response. A full summary is provided by Datta et al. (2018; E2), but specific uses include:

• Provision of critical information on the likely evolution of the hazard to the FCDO in Nepal ( E3) and to the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office, which coordinates all UN activity in Nepal; this underpinned fact sheets on earthquake and landslide risk that provided operational guidance for all UN staff ( E4);

• Identification of potential blockages to the road network and aid distribution by the UN Logistics Cluster and the World Food Programme ( E5); and

• Development of landslide reports by the Nepal Earthquake Assessment Unit, which was run by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to document the earthquake impacts ( E6).

Durham research on landslide occurrence in Nepal ( R1) and simple rules to minimise landslide exposure ( R2) was subsequently used by the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA), Government of Nepal, to refine the landslide assessment methodology for a comprehensive Geohazards Assessment across the 14 worst-affected districts in 2016-2017. This effort, supported by People in Need (a humanitarian NGO) and UN-OPS (Office for Project Services), was the only comprehensive large-scale hazard assessment carried out by the Government after the earthquake, and classified the hazard severity in more than 1,000 settlements in order to guide reconstruction efforts and identify settlements in need of relocation. The research findings were used by the NRA geohazard assessment teams to identify safer relocation options ( E7, E8).

The ongoing Durham-led post-earthquake landslide mapping and analysis ( R4) has provided the Government of Nepal with its first comprehensive, up-to-date database of landslide hazard. This database is updated twice yearly and used to generate household-level landslide risk maps for more than 1 million individual houses across the 14 worst-affected districts. The landslide database and risk maps have had impact in at least four separate ways. First, they have been used by the Durable Solutions consortium, led by People in Need and funded by the FCDO, to provide a dynamic overview of landslide risk across the 14 worst-affected districts in support of relocation and reconstruction ( E8). As stated by the Country Director of People in Need, ‘ To my knowledge, the Durham data is the only relevant information on the developing landslide risk across this broad area, and as such has been invaluable for our work in Durable Solutions. The decision making around landslide risk reduction since 2015 has inevitably been highly sensitive, and so having precise and reliable data has been essential for us, for the NRA and for wider donor-funded reconstruction programs. As of August 2020, Durable Solutions has supported the relocation of more than 11,000 people across nearly 2,500 households to safer locations, which includes the development of 32 entirely new ‘integrated settlements’ … Based around the [Durham] landslide mapping and modelling, we have engaged with local technical specialists in 62 municipalities across 6 districts to build capacity in risk informed decision making’ ( E8).

Second, the database and maps have been formally adopted as the only current source of landslide hazard information within the Government’s official disaster information platform, Bipad, maintained by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Agency (NDRRMA), and the maps have been distributed to all 135 municipalities ( palikas) within the 14 worst-affected districts ( E9). As stated by the Chief Executive of the NDRRMA, ‘ The Durham data is the only on landslides data held within Bipad, and is presented in maps for use by palikas, who under our new federal system hold much responsibility for disaster risk reduction and management… This platform, and the scientific data within it, has been critical in articulating the impacts of disasters in Nepal and forms a valuable advocacy tool for disaster risk reduction and the NDRRMA’ ( E9). Durham data on landslide occurrence and impacts have been incorporated by the NDRRMA into their 2020 monsoon preparedness plan, and have been presented to the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management National Council, chaired by the Prime Minister. The Chief Executive points out that ‘ the landslide susceptibility models generated by Durham have been used to articulate the scale and geography of the landslide hazard and risks that we face. This has allowed an initial prioritization of efforts such as messaging to palikas likely to be at highest risk during this period… Durham have been able to provide valuable data on the numbers of people exposed to landslides to really quantify and bring focus to the scale of this risk, and in particular how this has changed since the 2015 earthquake. I have presented these datasets at Council meetings, which has provided evidence into high level government discussions and decisions around priorities for landslide risk reduction. I note also that these data have then been more widely quoted by Ministers in their own work on the extreme impacts of landslides that have been experienced in 2020’ ( E9).

Third, the Durham research has underpinned national-scale investment in earthquake reconstruction and disaster risk reduction by the FCDO. The FCDO Resilience and Inclusion Team Leader in Nepal states that the research ‘ *has been essential in providing a barometer on the evolution of these risks. Specifically, it has allowed us to triage the most at-risk locations (be it individual site-specific assessments of houses, settlements, wards or municipalities at risk)*’ ( E3), in order to target earthquake response and resilience programming. Specifically, ‘ this information has been critical in supporting the Government of Nepal’s National Reconstruction Authority (NRA), via our £63M post-earthquake reconstruction project where the data provides information on geohazards critical for risk-sensitive land use and wider development planning at the local level. It has also directly informed the £5M support to resettlement of vulnerable households project which has facilitated support to at-risk households in the aftermath of the earthquake’ ( E3). The data have also been used to support the design and implementation of wider disaster risk reduction programming by the FCDO, including the use of ‘ evidence on landslide risks to underpin a focus on resilience in our recent £150M Local Infrastructure Support Programme business case, and in our £46M Strengthening Disaster Resilience and Responding to Humanitarian Emergencies in Nepal business case’ ( E3).

Finally, Durham research on the persistently high landslide risk after the 2015 earthquake was specifically cited by the Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations as the rationale for the 2020-21 Humanitarian Implementation Plan for Nepal, a EUR2,000,000 programme that is focused on landslide risk analysis and management ( E8).

Durham research on earthquake scenario ensembles ( R6) now underpins nationwide earthquake contingency planning by the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office and the Government of Nepal. The Resident Coordinator leads the UN presence in Nepal and chairs the Humanitarian Country Team, which comprises all UN organisations and major international NGOs that are active in the country, organised into 11 thematic clusters. The earthquake scenario ensemble has been formally adopted by the Humanitarian Country Team as the basis for their nationwide earthquake Emergency Response Preparedness Plan ( E10). The scenario ensemble provides the sole source of information on earthquake risk that underpins both the overall Plan and the detailed response plans from each cluster. As the Resident Coordinator points out, ‘ [e]ach cluster is now developing its own contingency plan, again underpinned by the scenario ensembles. This ensures that all clusters are using common figures for affected populations and areas of particular concern’ ( E10). Critically, the variability between different scenarios enables clusters to determine whether to plan for the average or the worst-case impacts, in terms of expected case loads. This conceptual advance provides a level of flexibility that would not be possible with a traditional scenario exercise, which typically considers only one or two potential earthquakes. The ensemble also allows the Humanitarian Country Team to anticipate logistical challenges in a future earthquake and to identify priority locations for preparedness actions, such as stockpiling of critical supplies. At the same time, the research findings that the impacts of the 2015 earthquake were particularly acute in remote mountainous areas ( R3, R4), and that a future earthquake is likewise expected to be highly disruptive in rural areas beyond the Kathmandu Valley ( R6), have helped the Resident Coordinator’s Office to focus on national-scale preparedness, allowing planning to be both more targeted and more efficient:

‘*To my knowledge, we are unique among Resident Coordinator’s Offices in having such a close and sustained relationship with academic researchers. It has allowed us to use scientific modelling for our preparedness and response plans, this has given us credibility with the clusters and humanitarian partners. The research which has been developed and shared continuously has meant that we can target our planning both geographically but also based on needs and vulnerabilities, which again allows the humanitarian community to use the limited resources at their disposal much more efficiently.*’ ( E10)

The Resident Coordinator is now working to develop joint earthquake response plans with the Government of Nepal, again underpinned by the scenario ensemble ( E10). Beyond Nepal, the scenario ensemble approach to earthquake planning is applicable elsewhere in South Asia, and Robinson led a similar earthquake scenario and contingency planning exercise with the Resident Coordinator’s Office in Bhutan in 2018 ( E10).