Impact case study database

McCorriston and Davidson’s research developed the UK Government’s internal capacity to better understand, analyse and model food price and food trade issues. At the time of the Brexit referendum, it underpinned public and ministerial debate around the potential impact of Brexit on UK food prices. Furthermore, McCorriston’s research highlighted the importance of competition issues in the context of global economic reform of food and agricultural sectors, leading to national and international food policy and food trade reform.

Boosting the UK government food price forecasting capabilities; and informing strategic approaches to food policy

McCorriston, Davidson and colleagues developed the UK Food Price Forecasting Tool for the UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) in 2011, based on research outlined in [3.4], in response to the global commodity crises of 2007 and 2011 affecting UK food price inflation at the time.

The Tool continued to be used by Defra staff from Aug 2013 onwards, to produce 6-monthly forecasts of UK food price inflation, where none had previously been available. Results were used to brief senior Defra ministers, notably the Minister of State for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (2015-19) and cross-departmental collaborations, notably with HM Treasury (HMT) [5.1]. They also routinely underpinned Defra’s monthly Food Price Inflation Note, providing context to Office for National Statistics (ONS) monthly inflation reports, and which are sent to the ministerial team [5.1]. Additionally, results from the Tool directly underpinned the hugely influential Methodology Note, co-ordinated by Defra and HMT, entitled ‘ How Defra has estimated the potential effect of import tariffs on UK food prices, May 2016’. This Note provided the only publicly available assessment of the potential impact of Brexit on UK food prices and was used to inform public debate and government ministers, alike, at the time of the Brexit Referendum [5.1].

A Defra Economist also credited McCorriston with embedding understanding of food price inflation drivers into Defra’s wider, strategic thinking:

“it is impossible to overstate the… enormous influence of your ideas, concepts and work around the drivers and forecasting of food price inflation… without (this), *we would have none of the rich, complexity of understanding about these issues that we have today.*” [5.1]

In 2020, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) updated its in-house econometric model used to forecast different subsets of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), drawing directly on research in [3.4]. A Senior OBR Economist directly credits McCorriston’s research and advice with enabling them to become “ more confident in forecasting UK food price inflation” and having “ *enhanced an important aspect of the OBR’s forecasting capability.*” [5.2].

Further contributions to strategic review and policy change are evidenced by other uses of the research [3.3; 3.4]. Specifically, findings informed: (1) oral and written evidence presented by McCorriston on food price issues to the House of Lords Sub-Committee on ‘Responding to price volatility: creating a more resilient agricultural sector’ in 2015 [5.3]; and (2) Contributions to Chapter 7 ‘International Dimensions of Climate Change’ of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Report, specifically on the potential impact on UK food prices due to climate change impact on the global food system [5.4].

In recognition of his field-leading research, McCorriston was appointed to Defra’s Economic Advisory Panel (EAP) in 2018 for a 5-year term to advise on food chain issues and assessments of food and agricultural trade issues.

Recognition of ‘Competition in the Food Chain’ issues within OECD countries, leading to international policy reform

In the aftermath of the world commodity crises of 2007-08 and 2011, international policy makers were increasingly concerned with competition issues in the food chain. For example, there were concerns about the impact of increasing market concentration in all stages of the food chain and the transmission of shocks from world to domestic retail markets, and their effect on agricultural producers, firms in the food sector and ultimately domestic consumers.

Based on his profile and research on these issues [3.1, 3.3], McCorriston was personally invited by the OECD Competition Directorate in 2013 to define the policy agenda for the OECD Roundtable in Paris (Oct 2013) on ‘Competition in the Food Chain’, by: (i) preparing a letter to delegates, on behalf of the Chair of the OECD Competition Committee, describing the competition issues and problems to be addressed at the Roundtable event [5.5a]; and, (ii) supplying a landmark report ‘Competition Issues in Food Chain’ [5.5b] for OECD publication which summarised the main competition concerns in the food sector across OECD countries. The Roundtable event was attended by anti-trust authorities (that promote fair competition in markets for the benefit of consumers and businesses) from all OECD member countries as well as national and international stakeholder groups,

In response to the event, submissions were received from 31 OECD member countries, detailing their country-specific issues and outlining their policy responses [5.5c]. The event raised international awareness of buyer power issues in the food chain and developed a shared understanding of actual and potential policy responses and comparative experiences of food sector competition issues amongst OECD member countries.

The highly influential OECD Business and Industry Advisory Committee (BIAC) subsequently advised that competition in the food supply chain industry should receive equal weight in enforcement, as compared to other sectors, e.g. financial markets or high-tech industries. They also advised that policies designed to address distributional or protectionist concerns, may have unintended consequences, and so should not be addressed within competition law, but rather through non-competition law or codes of practice [5.5d].

Furthermore, the event and OECD report authored by McCorriston [5.5b] directly contributed to:

• Creation of the EU Directive (2019/633) on ‘unfair trading practices in business-to-business relationships in the agricultural and food supply chain’, through highlighting the range of complex concerns that farmers in OECD countries face when dealing with firms in a highly concentrated food sector [5.6a].

• OECD review of ‘Competition Policy in the Mexican Grocery Retail Industry’, through providing the context of competition issues across different food sector environments [5.6b].

Underpinning global acceptance of the links between competition policy and food security, leading to international policy reform

McCorriston’s research underpinned an international acceptance of the importance of competition policy as an instrument of government in promoting food security in developing countries. In 2015, McCorriston was invited by the United Nations (UN) Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) to prepare an influential technical paper on ‘Competition and Food Security’ [5.7a], in part due to his 2013 commission from the UK’s Department for International Development (DfID) to conduct a systematic review on the links between trade reforms and food security in developing countries. The technical paper contributed directly to the FAO’s flagship 2015-2016 ‘State of Agricultural Commodity Markets’ report, on the links between trade and food security [5.7b].

The Director of the Food Systems and Food Safety Division, FAO described the FAO flagship report as “ highly influential in bridging the gap between economic research and national policies” [5.8] and the significance of the 2015-16 report’s focus as:

“a crucial issue for the FAO and policymakers to address, as many developing countries are highly dependent on agricultural exports for a significant proportion of their total export earnings while many others are highly dependent on imports for the provision of food staples… therefore key to the development of appropriate policies in many developing countries.” [5.8]

The flagship report [5.7b] and McCorriston’s underpinning technical paper [5.7a] were presented to an FAO ‘expert group’ and attributed, by the Director of Food Systems & Safety, as being an “ important influence” leading to the following “ international impacts”:

1. FAO support provided to countries involved in renegotiation of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture and developing the understanding of WTO negotiators;

2. “instrumental” in developing the FAO work programme within the Trade and Markets Division, “ particularly in guiding deliberations of the FAO Committee on Commodity Problems in October 2016”;

3. “informing the allocation of resources (staff and financial) to trade related work in support of FAOs Strategic Objective on ‘Enabling more efficient and inclusive agricultural and food systems”.

4. “influential in recognising the… priority that should be given to competition policy as an instrument of government in promoting food security … (and) *that issues around market competition need to be integral to the development of actionable solutions developed in the process towards the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit.*” [5.8]

The impact of McCorriston’s research on competition issues in developing countries extends further. The 2016 World Bank Report ‘Breaking down Barriers: Unlocking Africa’s Potential through Vigorous Competition Policy’ [5.9] cites McCorriston’s underpinning research [3.3] reflecting the importance and widespread reach of this research. McCorriston also played a leading role in preparing a 2015 report recommending wide-scale reforms to Liberia’s agricultural sector; it being one of the world’s poorest countries and recovering from civil conflict. The report, coordinated by the International Growth Centre (IGC), was delivered to the Liberian Cabinet. Concerns, highlighting priorities for reform in the rice market, were subsequently incorporated into the Government of Liberia’s strategy document “Food and Agriculture Policy and Strategy: From Subsistence to Sufficiency” [5.10].