Impact case study database

Tyndall-Manchester research on carbon budgeting methodologies, and their translation to sub-national carbon budgets has had a major impact across the UK by directly changing how numerous LAs set carbon targets and the associated policies to deliver them. UoM researchers have worked directly with eight local government organisations, held workshops with representatives from ~13% (52) of UK authorities and have had 3,713 unique visitors to the online tool in the first six months from Oct 2019. These organisations are at various stages of: setting both short- and longer-term carbon mitigation targets for the authority area; formally adopting these as targets; translating the targets into policies and then delivering changes in operations and practices. Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA), West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA), Manchester City Council and Leeds City Region are all at the stage of delivering changes in their operations and practices.

Currently at least 18% of the UK population live in areas that have formally adopted our carbon budgets. According to GMCA, “ the SCATTER model, developed by the combined efforts of GMCA, Tyndall-Manchester and Anthesis Consulting, is now being utilized by over 250 [60% of LAs] local authorities” [A]. The Climate Change Committee state that at least 27 LAs, including combined authorities have gone as far as setting targets for their areas using the Tyndall Carbon Budget Tool [B].

Changing policy, processes and expenditure in Greater Manchester (GMCA) and the city of Manchester

The impact is most well developed in the GMCA area. Tyndall-Manchester research [1-6] established the credibility of UoM researchers as leading authorities on carbon budget setting. This enabled the award of funding from the UK’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) for the Setting City Area Targets and Trajectories for Emissions Reduction (SCATTER) project (2017–2018) to develop climate change targets for UK Core Cities, in collaboration with GMCA and sustainability consultancy Anthesis [C]. This research [1-6] was essential for translating a global carbon budget to the local region in a way consistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Prior to this, LAs did not have a robust and transparent way to do this. As noted by Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, “ Tyndall Manchester’s research […] has underpinned a shift in our understanding of the scale and urgency of action needed” [A].

The research, evidence and engagement (through workshops and discussions) was instrumental in both the success of the SCATTER project with GMCA, and in Manchester City Council formally adopting Tyndall’s carbon budgets as policy in November 2018 [D] before official adoption of the budgets by GMCA in March 2019 [A]. By adopting the budgets, Manchester is committed to a new and radically different climate change strategy, with significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions mitigation than in previous policy – shifting from an 80% reduction by 2050 target to a carbon neutral by 2038 target [D]. The spending associated with policy changes shaped by Tyndall-Manchester research is approximately GBP65,000,000 over the period 2017–2020 along with future spending of circa GBP250,000,000. As explained by the Mayor of Greater Manchester, “ Tyndall-Manchester research findings are now firmly embedded in policy-making across the entire GMCA portfolio, directly shaping all strategic policies for the city-region, such as the BEIS-endorsed Local Industrial Strategy and the GM Spatial Framework” [A]. Policy proposals shaped by the research include: Greater Manchester Covid-19 Recovery Plan, Greater Manchester Investment Programme and the Greater Manchester Local Industrial Strategy [A]. Beyond LA impact, major organisations representing 20% of the city’s emissions (including Electricity North West (ENWL), Manchester City Football Club, Bruntwood and Manchester Housing Providers Partnership) have publicly committed to incorporating budgets based on Tyndall-Manchester research into their operations [D]. For example, ENWL has committed to investing GBP63,500,000 between 2019 and 2023, to drive down their own carbon emissions by 10% per year, and to help GMCA and other stakeholders meet their carbon targets based on Tyndall-Manchester research. ENWL have also commissioned further analysis from Tyndall-Manchester to support business customers to make immediate emissions reductions [E].

Improved goals and policy practices across England

Following the GMCA pilot, the methodology for sub-national carbon budget setting has changed the approach to climate change action in West Midlands Combined Authority [F], Sheffield City Council [G] and Leeds City Region [H]. These organisations have publicly declared not only a revised long term target, but a new understanding of the near term action required: “ By receiving the independent report of the Tyndall Centre today, we are making a major step forward in our understanding of the climate emergency… We know the exact scale of the challenge – and that if we don’t change course, we’ll spend our carbon budget within six years” Sheffield City Council **[G]**); “ the proposed target [zero carbon by 2041] …has been set independently based on scientific evidence from the Tyndall Centre. Shorter term targets…have also been set to ensure steady progress” (WMCA **[F]**). WMCA’s whole #WM2041 strategy has been shaped by Tyndall-Manchester’s analysis with immediate implications for the 2020–2025 period and an estimated investment of GBP40,000,000,000 expected for the 2020–2041 budget period [F]. As well as introducing near term targets and a cumulative budget framing, the wider experience of local climate change action gained by researchers in Manchester has been translated into impactful engagement with authorities. “ As the work by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change makes clear – meeting our 2038 target will not be easy [and requires] …coordinated action by local government, industry, business and people of all ages” (Leeds City Region Enterprise Partnership **[H]**). 52 local authority and local enterprise partnership bodies have attended Tyndall-Manchester’s workshops in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland on setting local climate change targets. The free online carbon budget tool allows any LA in the UK to calculate a target using this approach and the site had 3,713 unique users in six months with reports generated for 375 geographic areas across the UK [I].

The increased ambition for decarbonisation in Greater Manchester has led Electricity North West to request the regulator Ofgem change its policy to allow district network operators (DNOs) to be able to plan for, and invest to support, local plans for more rapid decarbonisation than the UK 2050 net zero target. In its recent Decarbonisation Action Plan, Ofgem has recognised this need, paving the way for DNOs across the country to actively support LAs more rapid decarbonisation plans [E].

Accreditation and international adoption

Tyndall-Manchester’s approach is aligned with, and recommended by, the global sustainability organisation CDP, who work with over 650 cities worldwide. The Tyndall-Manchester methodology is one of three accredited for use by the Science Based Targets Network (a global partnership of leading environmental organisations and associations) in their guidance for cities participating in the United Nations ‘Race to Zero’ initiative [J]. The first application of translating Tyndall-Manchester’s research impact beyond the UK is taking place in Sweden, where 5 of the 21 Läns and 11 of 290 Kommuna have requested or received a carbon budget. Järfälla kommun has already adopted the carbon budget set based on Tyndall-Manchester’s research [K].