Impact case study database

Research conducted by FHRC into flood assessment methodologies and data has significantly contributed to flood benefit appraisal guidance and data, both in the UK and beyond. The methodologies, models and data underpinned by our research have been wholly integrated within flood risk investment decision-making in the UK. From 2013, our research and outputs have been integrated and made available directly to licensed professional flood risk management users (e.g. national and local government, consultants) via a bespoke website ( www.mcm-online.co.uk) where the data are housed and methodological guidance provided via an eHandbook. These flood impact methodologies, models, data and tools, are considered industry best practice and provide the basis for all economic assessments of UK flood losses [F, G, I]. The research fundamentally impacts flood risk management implementation at both strategic and operational levels and its impact should not be underestimated:

“Defra’s £2.5bn. investment in flood defences in the current capital programme (2015-2021) and £5.2bn. in the next programme (2021-2027) have been or will be appraised following the guidance and analysis you developed. The latter programme is expected to deliver £30bn. of benefits in the next 50 years, mostly in the form of flood damages avoided but also in environmental benefits, better mental health and other societal benefits which will improve quality of live and protect lives and livelihoods across England. All these would have not been possible without your work on flood risk providing a better understanding and underpinning the analysis.” [Defra Flood Economist, G]

Our research is frequently used in policy documentation highlighting its significance and it influence on the work on Defra, Environment Agency, SEPA and NRW [e.g. A; D; E]. The thorough, rigorous and comprehensive methodologies produced from the research, and approved by HM Treasury, has facilitated * all central government investment in flood risk management interventions between 2014 and 2000. This is evidenced through the requirement in the national appraisal guidance of England [D], Scotland [E] and Wales to utilise methods and data from the MCM when presenting the cost-benefits of interventions and creating a business case [e.g. D, E]. Operationally, in flood risk investment terms, in England alone, in the financial years 2013/14 to 2018/19, this equates to GBP4.78billion (in real terms to 18/19 values) of UK Government capital investment being allocated using our methodologies and data. Furthermore, research to enable the consideration of local financial, as well as economic, damages into appraisal methodologies has also facilitated the implementation and application of Defra’s Partnership Funding approach; thereby enabling additional local benefits to be realised. Our approaches, therefore, helped to realise an additional c. GBP763million in local investment contributions for flood risk management to 2020/21.

Strategically, the research has been used to guide flood risk management developments. Our data underpins the economic analysis within the previous and current National Flood Risk Assessments of England (NaFRA) (including the recent State of the Nation update [A]), and Scotland, the English Long Term Flood Investment Scenarios (LTIS) [B] as well as consideration of flooding in the Climate Change Risk Assessment [C]. These high-level assessments are fundamental to understanding the distribution of flood risk and are used by governments to prioritise, develop its policy and guidance [G]. Indeed, based on the revised LTIS damage forecasting (underpinned by our data) the English budget for flood risk management over the next 6 year period (2021-2027) has been doubled to GBP5.2billion [G].

Since 2013, the research and the MCM data and methods are being increasingly used internationally and “its impact has reached beyond our borders and our expertise is often sought by policy makers and flood risk managers from other countries” [G]. We have international license holders who utilise our data from countries including, France, Germany, Canada, Ireland, Italy and Malaysia; as well as many engineering companies which work internationally. In particular, FHRC data and techniques have been, and continue to be, used in a national study of Romanian flood risk aimed at meeting the stringent and mandatory obligations of the European Floods Directive [J]. These have been used to improve flood risk assessment and ‘screen in’ areas so as to prioritise flood risk investment across Romania and develop a programme of investment requests to the European Community’s Cohesion Funds [J].

At-risk communities are the key beneficiaries of our research through its use to prioritise investment in flood and coastal erosion risk management and the implementation of flood risk management measures to reduce the impacts of flooding [H, F]. Over 720 schemes have been implemented between 2015 and 2020 in England alone; thereby directly positively impacting the flood outcomes of all those communities benefitting. “By providing better protection for 242,000 homes, EA’s investment programme has delivered valuable benefits for people, with flood risk being substantially lower for many thousands of homes in England” National Audit Office Report (2020; p4) and facilitating the assessment of high benefit-cost ratios of 8:1. This equates to an estimated avoidance of GBP29.4billion of expected household damages, from capital investment in flood protection between 2015 and 2021, and c. 700,000 people benefitting from a reduction in their flood risk. In Wales, over 45,000 properties and in Scotland 10,000 properties benefit in the period 2016 and 2021 from flood defence investment, facilitated by our methods and data.

Importantly, this has widespread social and health implications as well as economic benefits. Beneficiaries of flood risk investment are not only those households which may flood directly, it is estimated that for every household directly flooded, an additional 16 people suffer knock-on effects from the losses of utility services (EA, 2019); so flood risk management investment has the potential to impact society much more widely. The Hull Flood Frontage defences and Oxford flood risk management schemes are just two examples of major interventions which have been evaluated and business cases developed using our research outputs and data. These two large schemes alone provide increased protection to a total of 123,000 properties and mean that an estimated 250,000 people, therefore, avoid the social and health impacts of flooding.

The impact not only relates to newly constructed flood alleviation schemes. Existing flood risk defences will continue to provide benefits (through damages avoided) throughout their lifetime. As is widely acknowledged, every single one of the millions of UK families, households, businesses and communities that has had their risk of flooding reduced via thousands of investment schemes has benefited from the availability of our rigorous and theory-informed research (both within 2014-20 and indeed since 1977) [F, G]. For river flooding in England it is estimated that every year, on average, losses of GBP1.1billion are avoided by existing defences equating to a 63% reduction of inland flood losses (RMS, 2019). As an example, the Winter 2019/20 floods caused c. GBP333million in economic damages and inundated 4,600 properties. However, the economic damages avoided due to existing flood protection were estimated to be at least 14 times greater at GBP4.6billion with the avoidance of flooding to 127,000 properties.

In the Romanian context, a total of 12 major World Bank managed projects are being implemented, covering all flood affected areas in Romania, including along the Danube, locations where the consequences of flooding are high. Annually, the Romanian GDP is estimated to be affected by 4.6% as a result of flood damages, annually affects 300,000 people and there have been 237 fatalities from over 400 floods between 1960-2000. Our research and data are therefore helping to reduce current and future impacts; which are increasing under climate change and due to the deterioration of Communist-era flood defences.

The significance of our research and data is demonstrated by its wide and routine use by flood risk management professionals [I] and policymakers [F, G, J]. 146 organisations (including international and UK government departments, local authorities, consultancies, water companies, NGOs, banks etc.) have used our loss assessment methodologies and data between 2014 and 2020 and we have run a total of 28 courses for EA, SEPA, Local Authority flood risk managers as well as others, training a total of 499 flood risk professionals in our approaches to flood loss assessment. These professionals are those tasked with undertaking or assessing business cases for flood risk interventions. Alongside the MCM data and methods the MCM online calculator tool was developed to directly integrate research outputs into decision-making. This spreadsheet-based tool allows an inexpensive screening approach and is now well-used by flood risk professionals undertaking high-level benefit appraisal. In 2018, the Environment Agency, the organisation in England tasked with strategic overview managing flooding, formally recognised its value by endorsing its use among their staff, as well as incorporating it into their in-house online training [F]. In addition, we have collaborated with Jacobs on their commercial Flood Modeller Damage Calculator tool which assists end users to undertake flood loss assessments.