Impact case study database

KAEG has been involved in informing public debate and the government on fracking-induced seismic activity. KAEG‘s fracking research has been reported in numerous media outlets, with an international reach of >12 million, including reports in the US, Germany and Singapore, and extensive UK coverage by the BBC, Sky, LBC, the Guardian, Daily Express and Financial Times ( 5.1). KAEG expert opinion has been sought by several environmental groups, including Greenpeace ( 5.2), and local community action groups such as ‘Frack Free United’ and ‘Residents Action on Fylde Fracking’ ( 5.1). KAEG has worked with policymakers, raising awareness, informing understanding of geologically vulnerable areas, and how fracking-induced earthquakes are triggered. The research ( 3.2-3.7) has been applied to guidelines and policy regulating the UK fracking industry.

Advising the UK government and developing fracking policy

Over the past decade, KAEG has advised the UK government on how fracking-related earthquakes are caused, high-risk areas where fracking should be avoided, and procedures needed to minimise the risk of fracking-induced earthquakes (see 3.2).

Following fracking-related seismic activity at Preese Hall, Lancashire, the UK government reviewed regulations and, in 2012, introduced a traffic light system ( 5.3). Ed Davey, then Energy Secretary, stated, “This was a key decision – based on the best science available – and after extensive consultation. Indeed, I insisted on consulting on the report itself and its recommendations to promote as much transparency as possible.” ( 5.2). The system put in place a series of checks to monitor seismicity, requiring drilling to stop for 18 hours in the event of tremors >0.5ML, a standard recommended to government in a 2012 report co-authored by Prof. Styles ( 5.2, 5.4). Further recommendations have also been implemented, including the requirement of operators to conduct local geological studies, including mapping faults and fully understand local geology, to assess whether fracking could reactivate existing faults ( 5.5 5.6). The Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) also makes an independent assessment of the likelihood of seismic activity based upon recommended geological studies ( 5.6).

On 22^nd May 2018, Prof. Styles’ report ( 3.2) was launched in the House of Lords in an event hosted by Baroness Lynne Featherstone, who commented, “This report asks some serious questions of the Government and the fracking industry. Ministers must take heed and listen to the growing weight of evidence on fracking and, at the bare minimum, implement a moratorium on fracking in coal mining areas and review fracking across the UK” ( 5.7). On the same day, an Early Day Motion (EDM) on fracking in former coalfield areas was presented to the House of Commons by John Mann, supported by 19 MPs. The EDM draws upon 3.2, highlighting ‘the risk of earthquakes posed by fracking beneath coal-mined areas where mining-induced seismicity has already occurred’ ( 5.8). It calls on ‘the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government’ to adopt Prof. Styles' best-practice recommendation that planning applications for any fracking site include all available, high-resolution, carefully mapped datasets and incorporate these in the ‘National Planning Policy Framework’, and further calls on ‘the Government and local authorities to place a moratorium on fracking-related activities in coalfield areas’ ( 5.8). The report was cited in the House of Commons Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee (2^nd July 2018), in a report titled ‘Planning guidance on fracking 2017–19’ ( 5.9). In this, the committee recommends that the government assesses fracking guidance and responds to its findings that fracking in former coal mining areas could reactivate old or unknown faults ( 5.9).

In August 2019, fracking began at Preston New Road 2 (PNR2), Lancashire, after agreeing a Hydraulic Fracture Plan with fracking operator Cuadrilla ( 5.3). The plan proposed using mitigation measures recommended in 3.3, including the traffic light system, to undertake geological surveys of the area and monitor seismic activity ( 5.3). Fracking commenced at the site on 15^th August; a series of seismic events were recorded including red-light events that resulted in fracking being paused. On 26^th August, the UK’s largest fracking-induced earthquake occurred, measuring 2.9ML, which was widely felt across the region with cosmetic damage to some buildings ( 5.3). Based upon the measures proposed in 3.3, OGA suspended operations. In an interim OGA report in November 2019 ( 5.3), based upon the seismic data and traffic light monitoring system at PNR2, it was concluded that it is not possible with current technology to accurately predict the probability of fracking-associated tremors. Based on this, the government put a moratorium on fracking in England ( 5.4, 5.10). Business and Energy Secretary Andrea Leadsom MP said, “In the UK, we have been led by the best available scientific evidence...after reviewing the OGA’s report into recent seismic activity at Preston New Road, it is clear that we cannot rule out future unacceptable impacts on the local community'' ( 5.10).