Impact case study database

King’s research was summarised in the 2015 policy paper commissioned by Lord Sterling of Plaistow, ‘A Benefit, Not A Burden: The Military, Security, and Economic Value of Britain’s Defence Industry’ [A]. Published ahead of the SDSR 2015, it recommended that: i) the research and development element of defence spending be protected and ideally expanded; ii) government identify the net economic benefits and costs of onshore defence industrial activity in the UK; iii) government identify the aggregate economic and technological value provided by the UK’s supply chains that support the activities of the MoD and its prime contractors, and wider contributions to national innovation and the ‘knowledge economy’; iv) future defence industrial policy be informed by a clear understanding of the net security benefits that defence exports provide; and, v) government clearly distinguish between situations where domestically sourced military capabilities are necessary to ensure freedom of action and those where reliance on foreign sources is acceptable. These recommendations proved to be of significant interest to policymakers and parliamentarians engaged in the preparation of the SDSR 2015, shaping thinking and having an impact on future activities in the following ways:

Reshaping debate in the lead up to the SDSR 2015

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King’s research [1] gained traction across Whitehall and Westminster in the preparation for the SDSR 2015 with inclusion on reading lists for parliamentarians in the House of Commons Library [C] and key findings specifically cited in the June 2015 House of Lords debate by Lord Sterling of Plaistow and the Minister of State for Defence [D1, columns 1217 and 1236]. The research team further disseminated their findings and engaged in activities to shape the debate on the value of defence to the wider UK economy through numerous presentations to key opinion-formers as the preparations for the SDSR progressed. These included: i) a 11 September 2015 meeting convened by the MoD Chief Economist focusing on the SDSR work strand on ‘prosperity’, exploring how the evidence base and line of argument for prosperity could be improved; ii) a 15 September 2015 briefing of the Chairs and Members of the House of Lords Defence Committee, the House of Commons Defence Committee, the All-Party Parliamentary Group for the Armed Forces, and the Public Administration & Constitutional Affairs Committee, during a session dedicated to the report convened by Lord Astor of Hever, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the MoD; iii) a 26 October 2015 briefing on UK defence industrial policy convened by the House of Lords Defence Study Group to which all members of the House were invited owing to its importance.

As a result of their key engagement work, King’s researchers were invited to submit evidence to the 10 Nov 2015 SDSR consultation where Parliament, academics, industry, thinktanks, allies and partners, non-governmental organisations and the public were able to contribute ideas and suggestions on defence and security matters which would be used to inform government work. The King’s submission focused on the need to shift to ‘prosperity’ as the key framework for defence acquisition decision-making. Evidence was also submitted to the Defence Select Committee Inquiries into i) the Commitment to spend 2% of GDP on Defence (Nov 2015) [E1] and ii) Defence Acquisition and Procurement (Oct – Nov 2016) [E2, E3]. Their work was also cited as evidence for the move to ‘prosperity’ in key debates in the House of Lords: "[research by] King’s College London Policy Institute on the economic benefits of hard power stated that sovereign procurement was of national benefit and not a burden. In other words, it should be regarded as a net value to the United Kingdom and not purely a cost” [D2, column 872].

SDSR 2015 policy in action

As a result of King’s research, the SDSR 2015, and the recommendations contained within it led to several subsequent major changes in UK defence industrial policy. Specifically, the SDSR 2015 included ‘prosperity’ as one of its core conceptual pillars. It stated that the UK’s National Security Objective 3 would be to “to promote our prosperity – seizing opportunities, harnessing innovation to strengthen our national security, and working with industry to ensure we have the capabilities and equipment that we need. Our economic and national security go hand-in-hand. Our strong economy provides the foundation to invest in our security and global influence, which in turn provides more opportunities at home and overseas for us to increase our prosperity. A growing global economy helps to reduce poverty and build security for all” [F, p.69].

In this regard, King’s research directly changed UK Government policy on defence procurement by improving awareness and by informing and enriching understanding among key opinion-formers and decision-makers about the importance of leveraging defence expenditure for its wider economic and employment benefits. As Lord Sterling stated “I believe the team’s work had a material impact in ensuring the UK pivoted away from a Competition by Default approach to one that put UK prosperity at the heart of defence decision making” [G].

The King’s 2015 policy paper, ‘A Benefit, Not A Burden’ also highlighted that the acquisition and procurement element of defence spending should ideally be expanded. This recommendation was taken up throughout the SDSR 2015 report and was followed up with a government announcement that extra budget would be allocated to defence equipment in the 2016 budget. The plans stated that “Over the next decade MOD will spend over £178 billion on equipment and equipment support, £12 billion more than in plans prior to the 2015 SDSR” [H1]. By 2017/18 the UK had once again met the NATO requirement to spend 2% of GDP in defence, investing GBP18.9 billion with UK industry, equating to GBP290 per resident, which supported 115,000 jobs across the country [H2].

In 2017, the MoD released the report ‘Industry for Defence and a Prosperous Britain: Refreshing Defence Industrial Policy’ [I]. This document focused on ensuring that British industry would work alongside the Armed Forces “to protect our people, project influence overseas and promote national prosperity” [I]. Central to ensuring this was the refreshed ‘value for money’ definition, which was based on the notion of prosperity suggested by King’s researchers, meaning that MoD procurement choices would be required to give positive weighting to options that would create prosperity in the UK, even if they were more expensive than off-the-shelf options from overseas. As noted by Lord Sterling, “I believe that the evidence generated through this project has made a substantial contribution to the image of defence expenditure as delivering good value for the taxpayer, as well as underpinning the case for better defence economic data collection by the MoD” [G].

Beyond the SDSR 2015 – lasting impact and engagement

King’s research has continued to influence debate in the areas in and around defence spending. At the heart of this has been the UK Government’s move to adopt the suggestion to capture more defence economic statistics to identify the net economic benefits and costs of defence industrial activity in the UK. To do so, the Government has been working to establish a Joint Economic Data Hub (JEDHub) [G]. Comprising key representatives from the MoD, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy along with the Defence Growth Partnership and the UK Defence Solutions Centre, the Hub will contain new forms of economic data that are collected to support the MoD’s ability to evaluate the economic and wider employment effects of defence expenditure [H2]. As a result of his research and influence on the SDSR 2015, Wilkinson was asked by the MoD to be the sole Academic Advisor to the Hub since its establishment in 2018; the JEDHub is currently in its pilot phase and will enable for the first time, a robust analysis of the economic and employment effects of defence expenditure.

In addition, in March 2020 King’s hosted an international Defence Economics Conference where the Minister for Defence Procurement launched a cross-government review of the UK's Defence and Security Industrial Strategy. Wilkinson, Uttley and Dorman were asked to contribute a major analysis of UK expenditure on defence research and development for the review, leading to a number of recommendations which reflect their earlier work on prosperity. These were i) to rapidly increase investment in defence R&D as part of the wider Government commitment to reach 2.4% GDP spend on R&D by 2027, and to ensure the UK remains at the forefront in terms of defence capability development; ii) to ring-fence defence R&D expenditures in the budget, with an additional commitment to increase beyond standard levels of inflation in 5-year cycles; and, iii) to shape defence R&D funding to ensure that the UK has national systems capabilities in specified areas but that it also remains a technologically attractive collaborative partner.

As the Deputy Director of the Review noted, attesting to “the significant impact” of King’s research, these recommendations were “core elements of numerous briefings given by the review team across Government, including to the Cabinet Secretary, Defence Secretary and other national security department Ministers, [and] central to the case made [to] increase expenditure on defence R&D significantly (confirmed last November [2020] by the Spending Review statement that £1.5 billion more would be spent in the next four years on Defence R&D)... In this regard the team’s research was critical in policy decision making around UK defence expenditure and central in making the case for increased defence R&D budgets” [J].