Impact case study database

The Volcanology Group at UoB has a wealth of experience in responding to volcanic emergencies which has established UoB researchers in key leadership roles in collaborative efforts to reduce volcanic risk. The UoB researchers work with the public and private sector, through all phases of the Disaster Risk Reduction cycle, and have conducted knowledge transfer activities in 32 countries, including 19 ODA recipients. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) have hailed UoB’s “‘ research prowess in volcanology and their convening power to engage and co-ordinate the international volcanology community”^5-10. The UK Department for International Development (DFID) state “ the research and datasets produced by … Bristol’s Volcanology Group [are] valuable underpinning resources for our decision-making” ^5-4 and the US Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) state that UoB’s work has “ changed the way in which volcanic hazard and risk is managed on a global basis”^5-5. Further testament to their achievements, the Volcanology Group were awarded the Queen’s Anniversary Prize in 2015 – an institutional award which honoured the outstanding importance and quality of UoB’s work to reduce volcanic risks ( www.queensanniversaryprizes.org.uk).

1. Informing international policy and aid. The Global Assessment of Risk (GAR) is the flagship report of the United Nations on worldwide efforts to reduce disaster risk. The 2015 report (GAR15) was the first to consider volcanic risk and, as co-leader of GVM, UoB co-ordinated scientists from 80 countries in the development of the report. UoB’s scientists led or contributed to all four background papers on Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk^5-1 and UoB’s system of robust indices³-¹ provided the foundation for the report’s 86 Country Hazard and Risk Profiles. GAR15 produced “the conceptual framing and evidence for the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction”³-⁵ which provides UN member states with concrete actions to protect development gains from the risk of disaster and was adopted in 2015. The ability to assess volcanic risk on a global scale for the first time demonstrates how UoB’s research has built the scientific foundation necessary for the UN to signal volcanic hazards as a policy priority to their member states^5-2.

UoB’s risk metrics, developed for GAR15, have been widely adopted to advocate for funding and to inform authorities and decision-making. The insurance brokers Willis Towers Watson (WTW) describe them as “ a breakthrough in providing global volcanic risk metrics, which suit the needs of a variety of end-users, uniting academia, public sector, civil society and the private sector with a common language for risk … allowing for the cross-sector collaboration necessary to strengthen resilience.” The metrics underpin weekly assessments of volcanism for DFID and the European Response Coordination Centre (ERCC)^5-3. DFID^5-4 explain “ We rely on the Bristol data … to allow us to rapidly start deploying resources (including people and aid) to the area affected”. During the 2018 eruption of Fuego, Guatemala, initial humanitarian reports indicated a large response from DFID was required, but “ By using the GAR data… we quickly understood that the number affected was far lower … thus saving man-hours and funds and allowing a more appropriate response”^5-4. The British Geological Survey state that the national risk rankings have been critical in “ drawing attention to volcanic hazard among government departments who in some cases were apparently unaware that such threats existed”^5-3. The volcanic risk component of GAR15 is openly accessible and has reached a wide audience: >46,000 downloads of open-access book chapters^3-1 ( www.cambridge.org/volcano) and >3,900 downloads of risk data from UNOCHA Humanitarian Data Exchange ( https://data.humdata.org/dataset/volcano-population-exposure-index-gvm).

2. Supporting crisis response. UoB’s expertise in volcanic risk and remote monitoring has resulted in urgent requests for assistance from observatories, the UK government (BGS, DFID) and the US Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP)^5-5. Here we select three recent volcanic crises which illustrate some of the ways in which UoB’s research has been used operationally.

Institutional Disaster Response. The 2018 eruption of Fuego, Guatemala, is one of the deadliest eruptions of the 21^st century and is thought to have resulted in up to 3,000 fatalities. UoB’s satellite monitoring expertise and a 20-year collaborative relationship with Guatemala’s national hazards agency, INSIVUMEH, meant UoB was selected to manage the International Disasters Charter response ( https://disasterscharter.org) to the eruption, through which 17 space agencies make satellite data freely available to those affected by disasters. INSIVUMEH state that “ the information was used to manage the crisis by providing up-to-date information of the volcano’s behaviour and also the location of buildings buried beneath the ash deposits”^5-7.

Reducing the impact of evacuations. In 2014, a series of seismic crises at the previously quiescent volcanic complex of Chiles-Cerro Negro, Ecuador, raised concerns of a possible large eruption. The Risk Management Ministry raised the volcanic alert level from Yellow to Orange on 21/10/14, triggering evacuation of about 3,500 families. UoB provided satellite InSAR data and analysis to the observatory (IG-EPN), which was fundamental in the decision to lower the alert level back to Yellow on 26/11/14^5-5,5-6. This meant that “ evacuees could return home, and that disruption and socio-economic losses were minimised by avoiding a prolonged evacuation”^5-6.

Safety of scientists and emergency responders. In 2018, New Zealand’s research and monitoring institute, GNS Science^5-8, used UoB’s volcanic fatality data^3-2 to develop the Volcano Life Risk Estimator (VoLREst), a world-first operational product and a key part of GNS Science’s Health and Safety protocols. GNS state that UoB’s fatality data provided “ key validation of the hazards considered in the VoLREst tool”^5-8. Following the 2019 Whakaari eruption, in which 21 people lost their lives, VoLREst was used to assess safety and aid decision-making in body recovery operations^5-8. In the hours after the eruption, UoB’s fatality data was used to brief Police and Fire and Emergency in support of their eruption response^5-8.

3. Improved monitoring capacity. UoB’s research has been used to advocate for investment in capacity building and monitoring in several countries that the GAR15 identified as having high-risk active volcanoes and limited capabilities. Here we highlight two examples from Latin America and East Africa which demonstrate the ways in which UoB research has supported countries with dramatically different monitoring capabilities.

Latin America: According to GAR15, over 130 million people live within 100km of a volcano in Latin America. Following the 2018 eruption of Fuego, Guatemala, the work of international scientists led by the US Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) and UoB was “ important in allowing Guatemala to secure a $200M loan from the World Bank to quickly mobilize resources in the aftermath of adverse natural events…”^5-5 . Specifically, UoB researchers were “ instrumental in demonstrating the need for improvements in monitoring … using evidence from GAR15 comparing in country monitoring capacity and risk levels”^5-7. Guatemala’s national hazard agency, INSIVUMEH, state that UoB’s ongoing collaboration has enabled “capacity building in both monitoring resources and the training of staff in cutting-edge monitoring techniques, which help us to respond to developing volcanic emergencies in the forecasting of activity and supporting decision-making, preparedness and emergency response”^5-7 . In contrast, Ecuador has a relatively strong ground-based monitoring capacity. UoB’s use of satellite data during the 2014 Chiles-Cerro Negro seismic crisis has inspired the volcano observatory, IG-EPN, to use satellite data for monitoring high-risk, physically inaccessible volcanoes^5-6. IG-EPN state “ The training, workshop and exchanges with Bristol have inspired and helped to develop our processing of satellite data in house rather than rely solely on international collaborations”^5-6.

East Africa: According to GAR15, over 120 million people live within 100km of a volcano in Africa and the Red Sea. UoB’s work has been instrumental in communicating volcanic risk and building capacity within Ethiopian governmental organisations^5-9. Since 2005, UoB have worked with the Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy (IGSSA)^5-9 on a range of NERC-funded projects which IGSSA state have “improved the knowledge of volcanism in Ethiopia and provided evidence and support for our national geohazard monitoring strategy”^5-9. Motivated by UoB’s satellite surveys, the joint deployment of temporary seismic and geodetic networks has enabled IGSSA to develop their own volcano monitoring strategy. Since 2014, IGSSA have expanded Ethiopia’s national network to include two real-time seismic and seven GPS stations specifically designed to monitor volcanoes. Exchange visits have increased capacity through the training of IGSSA staff members^5-9. IGSSA state that “ a major change is an increased awareness of volcanic hazards and risk within the government and disaster risk reduction communities, culminating in the formation of a multi-organisational geohazard focus group”^5-9. This prompted the National Disaster Risk Management Commission to publicly announce in 2019 “ a paradigm shift from managing geohazard crises to managing risks”^5-9. The BGS describe this as “a step-change in the understanding of volcanism and volcanic hazards in the Main Ethiopian Rift, greater awareness within the Ethiopian government and stakeholder groups, and valuable capacity building through instrumentation and training of personnel in satellite monitoring techniques”^5-3 .

4. Raising public awareness. UoB’s research^3-1 identified significant gaps in public awareness of volcanic hazards, which led the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)'s Challenge Fund Program to fund UoB in leading the VolFilm project ( https://vimeo.com/volfilm; USD200,000). VolFilm has produced 14 educational films on volcanic hazards and impacts in six languages. The Smithsonian Institution’s volcano outreach specialist^5-10, often considered the world’s leading media commentator on volcanology, explains that the films successfully improve people’s understanding: “ I saw a clear reduction in the number of questions I was asked when I shared these films… a testament to how successful they are in relaying important information.. crucial to individuals and communities who need to make critical decisions”^5-10. The films have been viewed in over 90 countries. For example, Nuevo Mundo^5-11, a media group in Guatemala, shared VolFilm’s pyroclastic flow video on Facebook to combat misinformation during the 2018 Fuego eruption. Literacy rates in the area are low and the press and public believed the hazard to be lava rather than pyroclastic flows^5-11. The video effectively explained the impacts of pyroclastic flows and was subsequently viewed ~2 million times with >40,000 shares^5-11. Nuevo Mundo state “ this video helped people help themselves”^5-11, and one viewer commented, “ *This is the information that people living around volcanoes need to know!*”^5-11.

5. New models of financing disaster relief. Financial losses from volcanic eruptions between 1980-2019 totalled about USD12 billion globally. Due to the challenges associated with assessing volcanic risk, only USD1.2 billion were insuredFootnote:

https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters-losses-are-trending-upwards/volcanic-eruptions-the-earths-ring-of-fire.html#111129733 . UoB’s development of volcanic databases and the quantification of global risk in GAR15 has driven the development of novel insurance products. The insurance brokers Willis Towers Watson (WTW) state “Bristol’s work has significantly advanced the potential for volcanic eruption risk modelling and supported the accurate pricing of risk-based insurance policies”^5-2. For example, following the publication of GAR15 and the Sendai Framework, the World Bank funded WTW to explore the feasibility of volcanic parametric insurance^5-2. This insurance is a new product that would provide immediate financing to governments and vulnerable communities during volcanic emergencies. By linking the pay-out to event parameters rather than damage, finance can be released without the need for time-consuming impact assessments. UoB researchers formed part of the WTW-led project consortium and provided the expertise, datasets and risk metrics (e.g. 3.1, 3.2, 3.3) needed to build models for financial decision making. The project developed a Volcanic Risk Financing Roadmap^5-2 and, crucially, led to the development of a World Bank investment case. WTW comment this has significantly advanced “ the potential for parametric insurance policies to be developed by the World Bank and others”^5-2.