Impact case study database

The research of the WWA team at the University of Oxford has attracted high and increasing levels of media attention since 2014. This has changed public understandings of changes in the weather and climate, by allowing journalists to make evidence-based claims about their interrelations. The research also enables national meteorological institutions in Europe to develop their own weather attribution service.

Changing the understanding of weather events in public discourse

Since 2014, Otto and the University of Oxford team have seen media interest in their work rise sharply. Data from media monitor agency Meltwater show articles discussing their work or including comments from research team members increased more than 40 times at the global level, from 60 in 2014 and 180 in 2015 to 596 in 2017 and 2,605 in 2019 [ E1]. The articles have been published across the world. While in 2015, 2017 and 2019 most were published in the USA, UK, Germany and France, WWA activity has also been referenced in countries as diverse as Vietnam (17 articles in 2017, 52 in 2019), India (7 in 2015, 13 in 2017, 74 in 2019), South Africa (8 in 2015, 2 in 2017, 53 in 2019) and Brazil (26 in 2017 and 88 in 2019) [ E1]. These articles are published in outlets across the political spectrum. In the UK it was not only The Guardian (1 article on Storm Desmond in 2015, 5 in 2017 and 10 in 2019) that reported on WWA research from the University of Oxford or invited Otto and team to comment; the frontrunner was the Daily Mail Online/ Mail on Sunday combination (3 articles in 2017, 43 in 2019) [ E1].

The Strategic Communications Manager for Climate Impacts at the European Climate Foundation (ECF) – an international organisation promoting European leadership in climate change mitigation – corroborates the strong media interest in the WWA research by Otto and colleagues. ECF collaborated with Otto and colleagues in communicating the results of attribution studies on the June 2019 heatwave in Europe, January 2020 bushfires in Australia and July 2020 heatwave in Siberia to global media. The ECF’s Strategic Communication Manager writes that: “[a]ccording to our analysis of Meltwater data, the studies were covered in 1,921, 1,587 and 1,525 news articles, respectively. This puts them among the most widely covered climate science studies in 2019 or 2020” [ E2].

Multiple sources [ E2- E8] indicate that the increased media interest in the research by Otto and colleagues has enabled a qualitative change in public understandings of the relationship between climate change and weather events. The Environment Editor of The Guardian explains that [ E3]:

“[o]ne of the questions frequently asked about climate change is did it cause a specific extreme weather event? For a long time, the answer was by necessity frustratingly vague and qualitative - global heating increases the chance of extreme weather and might increase its severity. The science of real-time attribution, pioneered by Friederike Otto and colleagues and building on the earlier work of Myles Allen, has transformed this. It enables numerical answers to the question, giving clarity and impact to the findings. Crucially, it also does this rapidly, meaning that statements on the influence of climate change on extreme weather events can be reported while those events remain relevant to the news media. It has enabled journalists to state plainly that the climate crisis is making extreme weather worse, and is therefore having real world impacts. Climate change therefore goes from being a threat to a reality. I have little doubt that this transformation has been a significant part of the rising understanding and concern about climate change and rising action.”

The ECF’s Strategic Communications Manager for Climate Impacts adds that the research by Otto and colleagues has been [ E2]:

“extremely valuable in increasing public, media and political understanding of the relationship between human-caused climate change and well-known extreme events. Over a short period, media coverage – particularly in Europe – shifted from saying it is not possible to connect particular events with climate change to recognising that such statements are scientifically justifiable.”

Otto and colleagues’ research has also enhanced the scientific basis for collective action to address climate change. A review of Wütendes Wetter [ R2] in Germany’s leading centre-right, liberal-conservative newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (circulation in print: >230,000 in 2019) explains that the methodological innovations that have accelerated attribution research, for which “Otto … was a driving force … from the start”, offer “the decisive arguments in today's sharp climate protests for action” [ E4, translated]. They have enabled “a completely new line of evidence” where “correlations have now become computer-generated causalities … Suddenly you can search for the fingerprint of climate change after every extreme weather [event]. Science has now gone from assessor to key witness for the prosecution. The question of blame for the global climate crisis can now be tackled with mathematical means” [ E4].

Others have drawn similar conclusions. The ECF’s Strategic Communications Manager states that: “[b]y demonstrating recent consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, in a scientifically robust manner, Dr Otto and colleagues provided further evidence of the urgency of rapid action, which helped galvanise public concern, media pressure and political action” by national government in particular [ E2]. Meanwhile, in a Fox News article from 2017 on the summer heatwave in Southern Europe that year, the Director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center (which provides research for national Red Cross/Crescent agencies) confirms that “the new study [later published as R6] should be a wake-up call to policymakers in Europe about the need to prepare for hotter summers” [ E5].

Otto’s research and engagement has also influenced and reinforced the actions of political actors in Germany. Wütendes Wetter [ R2] has been particularly influential. It was ranked 3^rd on the authoritative non-fiction ranking produced jointly by Deutschlandfunk Kultur, ZDF (the German BBC2) and Die Zeit (influential weekly magazine, circulation >500,000 in 2018) in mid-2019 [ E6]. The media prominence of R2 and Otto’s wider engagement influenced the Heat Action Plan proposed by two Bundestag [Parliament] members of Die Grünen [Green Party] in July 2019 and again in July/August 2020. In it Germany’s Green Party calls for more action and financial support from the Federal Government to, for example, provide better information about heatwave risks to citizens and offer a right to reduced working hours during heatwaves for those working outside. The office of one of the Greens’ co-leaders has confirmed that Otto’s work has played a significant part in the thinking behind the plan [ E7, translated and emphasis added]:

“I am happy to confirm that your [i.e. Otto’s] research - including your media work (most recently on the Siberian heat wave) - has an impact on our political discussion. Your studies in attribution research are perceived by us as a warning to have climate protection more rapidly and are generally very helpful in the communication of science-based policy change. The need for a common, coordinated heat action plan has become clearer.”

Moreover, in a podcast interview with Otto in the summer of 2020, Germany’s then Federal Minister of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety indicates that Wütendes Wetter [confirmed her belief that the EU (chaired by Germany in July-December 2020) should become more proactive in climate change mitigation and adaptation [ E8].

Developing a new prototype for meteorological service provision in Germany

The increased understanding of the relationship between extreme weather and anthropogenic climate change has placed new demands on meteorological services in European countries, including Germany. In addition to predicting the weather, they are also increasingly expected to explain to the government, business, the media and the public if weather events are linked to climate change. The Head of Climate and Environmental Advice of the German Weather Service (DWD) confirms that:

“[t]he analysis and evaluation of extreme events is [now] a central topic of DWD research and advice in the field of climate services, since user inquiries have increased significantly in recent years due to the increased damage caused by extreme weather. […] Out of self-interest, but also due to increased inquiries, the DWD started to deal with the topic of attribution in 2017.” [ E9, translated]

As a result of both her research and media coverage in Germany of Wütendes Wetter, DWD invited Otto to its headquarters in Offenbach in January 2018, and “this meeting was the starting point for a close collaboration with you [i.e., Otto] and your research group” [ E9]. This collaboration evolved into a capacity-building project called 'Prototype Extreme Events and Attribution Service' (2018-2021) within the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) – an EU service that supports climate adaptation and mitigation through information provision. The project was awarded to the WWA team with Otto as co-lead and four national weather services – the DWD alongside the UK’s Met Office, KNMI and Meteo France – by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ECMWF is an independent intergovernmental organisation that implements C3S and provides weather predictions to EU Member States and commercial customers worldwide. ECMWF wanted to create a “prototype extreme events and attribution service” [ E10]. It anticipates that this prototype will eventually develop into an attribution service for national weather services in Europe, public bodies concerned with climate change impacts, commercial entities (e.g. in insurance), and outreach to the general public [ E10, emphasis added]. Despite the early stage of the new service, The DWD Head Of Climate and Environmental Advice has similar expectations, and recognises benefits that are already occurring:

“according to our assessment, the project will lead to a new operational climate service that is very helpful for our role. The direct participation in the project allows the DWD the necessary knowledge transfer in order to be able to expand the national climate service portfolio of the DWD in Germany to include the attribution of weather-related extreme events in the next few years.” [ E9, translated]

By October 2020, working with DWD and the three other weather services, the WWA team had: a) developed protocols on attribution, communication and data use; b) put in place a framework for quality assurance about real-time attribution on practical, methodological and scientific levels; and c) enhanced attribution capabilities through 3 pieces of educational material, 3 fact sheets and 2 demonstration cases of high temperature and high precipitation events on a dedicated website [ E11]. The DWD’s Head of Climate and Environmental Advice confirms that “[o]ur task in this [project] is to test the system that you [Otto] have co-developed for practical suitability from the perspective of an operational user” [ E9, translated]. Their interest is not only in the scientific methods and analysis steps but also in the “external communication of [attribution] results” [ E9, translated]. Their Head of Climate and Environmental Advice considers the “very cooperative and technically very valuable” collaboration with Otto “a very important element in the DWD’s expanding portfolio of operational climate services that, in the future, will enable the DWD to offer evidence-based answers to questions about the role of climate change in extreme events” [ E9, translated]. Otto's own commitment to innovative scientific analysis alongside public communication has thus become a central part of DWD's mission.