Impact case study database

In the face of a transition taking place in the mobility system, research by UWE’s Centre for Transport and Society (CTS) has contributed significantly to shifting attitudes and professional practice within transport planning and policy - equipping transport planners and decision makers to cope with uncertainty.

**Changes in government perspective
Supported by CTS research, the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, for the first time, in 2014 completed a strategic scenario planning exercise (illustrated right) - as part of examining uncertainty in future demand for car travel ( S1). This contributed in turn to the country’s Transport and Industrial Relations Select Committee undertaking an inquiry into the ‘Future of New Zealand’s Mobility’, which subsequently reported in August 2017. Meanwhile, the Ministry’s work (led by Glenn Lyons on secondment from UWE) brought about a change in perception over the Ministry’s stewardship of the future. The then Deputy Chief Executive, New Zealand Ministry of Transport noted:

‘thanks to the richness of research insights … harnessed through Glenn’s secondment, we have changed significantly the mindset within the Ministry on engaging with the future. We have also strengthened the thought-leadership standing of the Ministry at a time when multi-billion dollar investment decisions are being made in New Zealand that will shape our future’ ( S2, p3).

With transport and society in transition, the UK Department for Transport (DfT) in Road Traffic Forecasts 2018 (which references R4 – S3, p41) noted that: ‘[while] uncertainty in road traffic demand has always existed, it is perhaps now more uncertain than ever’ ( S3, p27). Significantly, this forecasting exercise that frames and informs policy and investment decisions in England and Wales, has moved from a fan of forecasts around a central (most likely) projection, to a set of *plausible scenarios ( S3, e.g. p10). Lyons has sat on the DfT’s Joint Analysis Development Panel since its formation in 2015, providing strategic advice on the forecasts and focussing on how uncertainty was handled in the draft Road Traffic Forecasts 2018 report. His advice helped shape the published report, with the Department’s response to his advice detailed in the Panel’s 2018/19 annual report ( S4, p32).

Changes in strategic planning behaviourTransport Scotland pioneered the development of a scenario planning tool and process, inspired by, and based on, the work led by Lyons in CIHT FUTURES ( G5, R6) and with significant direct input from Lyons. This shaped its revised National Transport Strategy, reconciling risk and yield associated with policy measures under consideration (Strategy published in February 2020) ( S5). Scenario analysis is, as a result, being adopted across the Scottish Government, including informing its Strategic Transport Projects Review. Director of Transport Strategy and Analysis, Alison Irvine noted in September 2020 that: ‘ it is a testament to the work done that as we look afresh at our strategy following COVID19 that we still feel the strategy is robust and does not require any significant change’ ( S5).

The UK Department for Transport’s Office for Science is leading the introduction of futures methods and culture change to add resilience across the Department’s areas of strategic policy and investment. Lyons (in his role, on half-time secondment, as Mott MacDonald Professor of Future Mobility – see further below) is technical lead in supporting this, and work has included addressing and influencing the 2019 Williams Rail Review, support for city region strategies seeking investment from the GBP1,280,000,000 Transforming Cities Fund, developing pathways for the decarbonisation of all UK domestic transport by 2050, and development of guidance for a consistent approach to scenario analysis in transport appraisal ( S6, p7). Mark Ledbury, Head of Transport Analysis and Strategic Modelling at DfT, notes:

‘Glenn’s research, advisory input and his constructive challenge on handling uncertainty has played a significant part in influencing the Department’s thinking and practice regarding forecasting and appraisal’ ( S7).

Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM), informed by the CIHT FUTURES initiative ( G5), has introduced a vision-led approach for its 2040 Strategy aligned to ‘decide and provide’ ( S8). Transport for the North (advised by Lyons) has adopted ‘decide and provide’ for its strategic planning (as set out in its December 2020 publication Future Travel Scenarios - Adaptive planning to deliver our strategic vision in an uncertain future, in which Lyons was asked to write the Overview ( S9, p16-17)). It is also being adopted by Transport for the West Midlands (where Lyons has been facilitating TfWM’s Modelling Advisory Panel sessions).

**Sector-wide sharing of a new vision-led planning approach to uncertainty
Mott MacDonald is a global engineering consultancy with c.17,000 staff and one of the world’s largest transport planning teams. It sought to respond to the challenges and opportunities of future mobility by funding a Chair in Future Mobility from 2018 onwards, held by Lyons. In collaboration with UWE, Mott MacDonald has developed a six-stage approach to vision-led strategic planning for an uncertain world called FUTURES (depicted right) that embodies the ‘decide and provide’ methodology. Launched in April 2019, FUTURES is now offered to, and used with, clients globally (global business turnover annually is GBP1,400,000,000). Transport authorities engaging with FUTURES include those in: Seattle; New York; Abu Dhabi; Dubai; Prague; and Queensland (as well as several UK cities and regions) ( S10). FUTURES has been placed in the public domain, to signal Mott MacDonald’s encouragement and support of ongoing change in the sector ( S10).

Application of vision-led planning to new development sitesBeyond the ‘decide and provide’ model now being applied by Mott MacDonald in cities nationally and internationally ( S10), the planning and transport sector is also now adopting ‘decide and provide’ in place of the ‘predict and provide’ model. For example, Basford Powers consultancy is using the vision-led ‘decide and provide’ approach to advise private sector clients involved in land promotion regarding new housing developments totalling 8,500 dwellings and 6,000 jobs ( S11). The organisation responsible for the national database of trip rates for developments used in the United Kingdom, TRICS, has commissioned and developed new guidance for their users concerning the practical implementation of the ‘decide and provide’ approach ( S11).

**Revision of professional competencies Lyons’ work for the Chartered Institute of Highways & Transportation (CIHT) (see Section 2 and ( R6) and ( G5)), led directly to a revision of the professional competencies overseen by CIHT and the Transport Planning Society (TPS).

In response to Lyons’ recommendations from the CIHT FUTURES initiative ( R6), the CIHT and the TPS – who jointly oversee the Chartered Transport Planning Professional (the only professional qualification of its kind for transport planning) – undertook a fundamental review between 2018 and 2020. This led to a revised set of professional competencies associated with the qualification to ensure that transport planning remains fit for purpose in the digital age ( S12). The CIHT Chief Executive remarked that Lyons’ recommendations ‘ provide CIHT, the wider sector and key stakeholders a route to facing the future with increased confidence, despite the uncertainty ahead’ ( R6, p4).