Impact case study database

Since 2014, MORPH’s predictions have informed policy, planning and management associated with the impacts of housing developments, the loss of feeding habitat, and human activity on bird populations both in the UK and the US.

• An independent coastal partnership, the Solent Forum, commissioned BU to measure the potential impact of housing development on the wintering bird population of the Solent. MORPH predicted that increased levels of human activity from the construction of 60,000 additional houses up to 2034 could potentially increase the mortality of wading birds [E1a, p.4] in the region. Consequently, developers had to offset any negative effects by contributing between GBP356 to GBP927 per house built (depending on the number of bedrooms) [E1b] to fund conservation. From 2014 to 2020, those contributions totalled GBP3,400,000 [E1c], with the potential to reach approximately GBP34,000,000 by 2034* [E1a, p.16]. This was used to create Bird Aware Solent, a multi-award-winning partnership, which coordinates the use of the funding [E1d]. (*Using the baseline developer contribution of £564 x 60,000 houses = GBP33,840,000.)

• BU worked with government adviser Natural England (NE) to assess the effects of habitat loss and disturbance due to new developments on wildfowl populations. NE commented, that, as a result, it can “for the first time… predict whether [such] loss… might result in a decline in protected bird populations or affect their fitness.” NE is currently developing new guidance for its staff which will save “a significant amount of time responding to planning consultations, whilst still ensuring the protection of designated wildfowl populations” [E2].

• In 2015, US-based conservation organisation Ducks Unlimited funded BU research into the effects of disturbance and habitat loss on black brant geese in Humboldt Bay, California [R4]. The subsequent findings formed a key piece of evidence for an impact assessment in 2016 of the environmental effects of the expansion of aquaculture activity by the Coast Seafood Company [E3].The final report stated: “…the Stillman model [MORPH] is the best science available to assess impacts of the project on brant” [E3].

Since 2014, MORPH and its related research has informed the sustainable management of shellfisheries in the Wadden Sea, Netherlands – the world’s largest unbroken system of intertidal sand and mud flats – the Dee Estuary, Burry Inlet and Three Rivers in Wales and England’s Exe Estuary.

• During 2020, MORPH was used to determine whether the management of the Wadden Sea cockle fishery between 2007 and 2019 had been appropriate to maintain high survival rates of the oystercatcher, a confirmation required to allow cockle harvesting in 2020/21. The Programme Towards a Rich Wadden Sea, a Dutch umbrella organisation, stated: “The researchers applied the MORPH model that calculates how many cockles must be available in the Wadden Sea to meet the daily physiological nutritional needs of an oystercatcher…” [E4]. “All parties were satisfied with the quality and thoroughness of [the] study using the MORPH model. The two commissioning parties, Province of Fryslân and the association of manual cockle fishers, OHV, were pleased with the outcome as proof that there was no concern to issue the fishing permit for season 2020/2021.” [E5]

• The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) has documented MORPH’s role since 2014 in the management of Welsh cockle fisheries [E6a, p.3, E6b, pp. 6-9] and the Exe Estuary mussel fishery [E6c, p.4]. The ‘bird model’/’bird food model’ (BFM) referred to is an output from MORPH that assesses the quantity of shellfish that needs to remain after fishing to allow the oystercatcher, a protected shellfish-feeding bird species, to have high survival across Welsh cockle fisheries, as required by conservation legislation. MSC reports: “The Dee Estuary […] stock is assessed under the same “bird model” as all other cockle fisheries in Wales, including Burry Inlet” [E6a, p.3, E6d, p.6]. “BFM is run every year to identify the amount of cockle that is required for the birds including the oystercatcher over the winter period and the quota that the fishermen can take is agreed once enough food for the oystercatchers is identified” [E6b, p.8]. The use of the BFM in the ‘Dee Estuary Cockle Fishery Order’ has also brought financial benefits to the local cockle industry. Before the 2008 order, it “operated on a boom-and-bust cycle”, with beds often shutting for a few years due to very low stocks, before being cleared out once they reopened, leading once again to closure. Since 2008, the beds are able to open every year, providing “up to six months’ lucrative employment for 53 licensed cocklers” [E7]. From 2013-2015 the fishery was worth an estimated GBP883,000 on average per year [E7].

• A report by MSC on the Exe Estuary outlines BU’s impact on mussel harvesting. MORPH predicted that creation of a new oystercatcher food source from shellfishery waste, or a ‘discard bed’, could offset negative effects of the harvesting. This was a condition for consent from NE for harvesting by Exmouth Mussels Ltd. “A discard bed is provided at the upper level of the shore – the area will be agreed between Exmouth Mussels and [NE], based on the [BU] report’s advice.” [E6c, p.4]

• BU has equipped NE with models and knowledge to predict in-house the effect of land use change on bird populations. This enables them to conduct a more cost-effective assessment of impacts, without having to use costly external consultants. An example of NE’s potential to use MORPH is to determine why there has been a reduction in the number of geese using the North Norfolk Coast Special Protection Area. “It has been assumed that this change in behaviour has been triggered by changes in agricultural practice. This modelling work will help determine whether the fitness of these birds has been impacted and will help develop remedies to this latest challenge.” [E2]

• UK conservation charity Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT) used MORPH to diagnose the environmental causes of the population decline of the Bewick’s Swan, currently listed as ‘Endangered’ in Europe. “A team of scientists from the UK and the Netherlands […] worked with Professor Stillman to use the MORPH model to determine that reduced food availability and increased competition were not the cause of population decline.” This evidence “had a direct impact on conservation practice and policy, by directing the efforts of WWT and its partners away from undertaking costly changes to current land management practices in an attempt to increase food availability for the swans” [E8]. WWT has also started to develop individual-based models [IBMs] such as MORPH to predict the impacts of wind turbines on migratory birds. “Professor Stillman’s ground-breaking work on individual-based models has produced a valuable tool that provides… the evidence we need to inform conservation action and policy in a rapidly changing world.” [E8]

• The British Trust for Ornithology now routinely includes MORPH - or related IBM approaches - as one of its methods in conservation projects. They confirm that IBMs “provide a succinct method of analysing past and future scenarios within ecology from the level of the individual”, which is “vital in understanding the responses of populations to environmental pressures” [E9]. They attest that this approach complements their existing analytical methods, stating that – in collaboration with Stillman and others – they have used IBMs in projects on the Burry Inlet, Wales and the Humber estuary. They also confirmed that BU’s work in developing IBMs “has enabled their wider application in applied ecological work, including our own work in ornithology” [E9].