Impact case study database

The REACT programme directly informed the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Reports included weekly submissions to the government of both interim and final results from each round of surveys.

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In a written answer on 21 October 2020 to a parliamentary question, Helen Whately MP, Minister of State for Social Care, responded that REACT-1 and the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus Infection Survey provide the “latest” and “most accurate” prevalence data [ B].

The Royal Statistical Society in evidence to the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee Data Transparency and Accountability: COVID-19, noted that REACT-1: “ was designed in remarkably quick time”, “ has been particularly important … to inform the government response” and that “ regional estimates are suitably precise” [ C].

REACT-1 reports its own estimates of R and the data help calibrate models generated by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) for the Scientific Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE). These contributions are cited in several government press releases [ D]. On 15 July 2020 the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care said about REACT-1: “ This ambitious testing programme will help us better understand the spread of the virus to date, predict how it may spread in the future and inform our response to the pandemic”. The government press release went on to say that the REACT-1 programme “ is the largest, most significant piece of research looking at how the virus is spreading across the country”. On 11 September 2020, the DHSC stated that findings from the study “ reinforce the need for the ‘rule of 6’ for social gatherings”. On 9 October 2020 REACT-1 was described as “… one of several studies that feed into government decision-making and policies on tackling the spread of COVID-19 in England” [ D].

Minutes of government committees give further evidence of impact. SAGE minutes from 1 October 2020 comment: “ Surveillance studies such as REACT-1 ... are likely to be more reliable indicators of changes in incidence and prevalence than testing system data” [ E]. SAGE minutes from 17 December 2020 cite REACT-1 results of the high prevalence in school-age children (13 to 17 years) indicating the utility of REACT-1 data as part of a decision-making process about the impact of school closures and re-openings: “ *Overall, evidence is consistent with transmission occurring amongst school children when schools are open, particularly in those of secondary school age (high confidence). Multiple data sources indicate that half-term led to a reduction in transmission in children and that transmission rates picked up again in many places when schools reopened following half-term (medium confidence)*” [ F].

The Chief Medical Officer (CMO) and Chief Scientific Adviser both cited REACT-1 estimates of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in England during two press conferences in October 2020 (16th, 22nd) when the second wave was spreading rapidly and widely [ G]. At the press conference on 31 October 2020, the Prime Minister announced a four-week national lockdown, backed by slides from the CMO that included the estimated daily incidence from REACT-1 of 86,300 – 105,800 infections [ H].

The REACT-2 programme has had impact through its provision of data on variation in cumulative risk of exposure by age, ethnicity, occupation, household and region. Following the publication of findings from REACT-2 (5) Health Minister Edward Argar said: “ Large scale antibody surveillance studies are crucial to helping us understand how the virus has spread across the country and whether there are specific groups who are more vulnerable, as we continue our work to drive down the spread of the disease” [ I]. Following subsequent publication of findings on the fall of antibody response over time (6), Health Minister Lord Bethell said: “ This study led by Imperial and Ipsos MORI is a critical piece of research, helping us to understand the nature of COVID-19 antibodies over time, and improve our understanding about the virus itself. We rely on this kind of important research to inform our continued response to the disease, so we can continue to take the right action at the right time” [ I]. A report to SAGE in November 2020 cites REACT-2 among its key sources and proposes a series of interventions to reduce household transmission and protect those living in large households [ J].

The REACT investigators have held regular Press briefings since June 2020 to present and explain their findings through the Science Media Centre, appeared on all the major news channels in the UK (and many overseas outlets), and their results have been widely disseminated across the national and world media.