Impact case study database

Faced with an accelerating pace of innovation in Big Data and artificial intelligence in the US and China, European nations have been working on policy measures to escape being on the receiving end of what has been termed ‘data colonialism’, in which digital superstar firms from abroad collect vast amounts of data from European businesses and consumers to innovate and improve their products and services, but without providing a tangible value to European citizens in return. Various options have been considered to deal with this, including a digital tax or the creation of European digital champions (by France for instance). Recently, more innovative ideas are taking hold, especially the ‘progressive data sharing mandate’ proposed by Mayer-Schönberger [R3, R4].

Impact on the German Political Agenda

Mayer-Schönberger’s data-sharing proposal was formally adopted as policy by Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) in December 2019. The SPD is Germany’s second largest political party and has been part of the ruling coalition government with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party since 2013. Initially, former SPD head Andrea Nahles advocated for individuals to be able to ‘extract’ their data from digital platforms (often called ‘data portability’). After becoming aware of Mayer-Schönberger’s research [R2, E1], Nahles and her team became particularly interested, in the words of the SPD’s head of the media policy division, ‘ in the so-called ‘progressive data sharing mandate… and how it could be implemented in Germany and/or the European Union’ [E1]. Seeking further information on the subject, in autumn 2018 Nahles and her staff reached out to Mayer-Schönberger and his co-author, Thomas Ramge, for advice. A number of meetings followed, and both Mayer-Schönberger and Ramge participated in a public expert forum organised by the party on the subject [E1].

The result was a policy adjustment, and from this point Nahles in her speeches began to advocate a legal duty for companies to share some of their data with competitors [E2]. The consultations between SPD leadership and Mayer-Schönberger intensified. Mayer-Schönberger was asked to collaborate with competition economist Professor Justus Haucap to specify the fundamental building blocks of such a data sharing, or ‘Data for all’ law. They delivered their paper to the SPD in December 2018. In February 2019, Nahles published a discussion paper, in which she reprised Mayer-Schönberger’s conceptual argument and argued explicitly for a ‘data sharing mandate’ [E3, lines 170-251]. Nahles also invited experts and stakeholders to an expert hearing at SPD headquarters in Berlin on 14 February 2019, where Nahles reiterated her support for a data sharing law [E4].

In August 2018, Mayer-Schönberger was invited to join the ‘Digitalrat’ or digital council. This advisory body was created, according to its chair, in accordance with the stipulation in the CDU/CSU and SPD agreement ‘ that the digital transformation should be a central theme of the work of the coalition’ [E5]. This council ‘ does not engage in public consultation processes and does not produce a final report, like most other such bodies do, but directly advises the Chancellor and her ministers for the entirety of the 4-year legislative period’ [E5]. Consequently, the Digitalrat is highly confidential, and its interactions with the government are not in the public domain, but the chairman highlights that one of its key topics was the role of data in a digital economy and society, and Mayer-Schönberger’s research in this area saw his selection as one of 10 members. Furthermore, Mayer-Schönberger was asked by the chair ‘ to lead the Digitalrat’s work on the role and governance of data’ based on his expertise as demonstrated in his recent research and publications [E5].

In September 2019, the Commission for Competition Law 4.0 (Kommission Wettbewerbsrecht 4.0) published its report, ‘A new competition framework for the digital economy’. This report explored various options for digital competition regulation, dwelling at length on the ‘Data for all’ proposal put forward by Nahles [E6, p35-7]. Mayer-Schönberger had also met with the Commission and talked at length on several occasions with its chair. The new co-leaders of the SPD, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, continued to support the data sharing proposal and in November 2019, at its annual party conference, the proposal for a data sharing mandate was put to a party vote and the overwhelming majority of delegates agreed to make it an official party policy [E7]. SPD’s head of media policy highlighted Mayer-Schönberger crucial role in shaping the SPD’s data policy, stating that ‘ *Mayer-Schönberger’s work and ideas have influenced and helped us better conceptualize our position on a ‘data-for-all’ law and we are grateful for that. We now hope to advance the proposed law and make it a reality.*’ [E1]

After extensive consultations with the Digitalrat, the SPD adoption of a mandated data sharing policy, and production of the Commission for Competition Law report, the German Government, in late 2019, issued the key elements of a ‘Datenstrategie’ for Germany. In it, according to Digitalrat’s chair, ‘ innovative forms of data pooling and sharing are explicitly mentioned, which reflect the importance of data sharing that Professor Mayer-Schönberger has highlighted in his work. It is the hope of the German government that such a data strategy will greatly aid German economy and society in transitioning into the data age.’ [E5] The eventual Datenstrategie white paper, published January 2021, formally maps out the executive and legislative agenda regarding data and specifically makes provision for an evaluation of whether data sharing in data-driven markets should be mandatory [E8, p.24].

The resulting legislative agenda manifested in the design of the Tenth Amendment to Germany’s Competition Act, a draft of which was officially published in January 2020. This legislation, which owed much to the Competition report, was designed to provide a ‘digital regulatory framework’ and address the increasing importance of data by introducing access to ‘competition-relevant data’ (section 18 (3) GWB) [E9]. Moreover, the law stipulates that if a dominant company refuses to grant another company access to its data, this behaviour can be classified as abusive under certain conditions (section 19 (2) no.1). The draft bill was endorsed by the federal government of Germany on 9 September 2020, remained prominent on the legislative agenda throughout 2020, and was finally enacted by the German Parliament in January 2021.

Impact on European Policy

In parallel to these national policy initiatives, the SPD also incorporated the concept of a ‘Data for all’ law in the policy platform of the SPD for the elections to the European Parliament [E1]. SPD lead candidate Dr. Katarina Barley, also German minister for justice and consumer protection, declared her support for a data sharing mandate on German national television on 8 April 2019 [E10]. The proposal of a data sharing mandate is reflected in the official SPD manifesto for the European elections: ‘ For that we will oblige [monopoly firms] to share their anonymized and non-personal data and make it publicly accessible’ [E11, p.43]. The Council of the EU is currently under German Presidency, and Barley serves as its Vice-President.

Influenced by the national debate in Germany, the central idea of the data sharing mandate has also been discussed by the President of the EU Commission, Ursula Von Der Leyen, in an op-ed piece published in February 2020 on presentation of the Commission’s strategies for data and Artificial Intelligence. In it, she stated her support for such a policy initiative: ‘ *Big commercial digital players must accept their responsibility, including by letting Europeans access the data they collect. Europe's digital transition is not about the profits of the few but the insights and opportunities of the many…We will develop a legislative framework and operating standards for European data spaces.*’ [E12]

The Commission’s Strategy for Data [E13], published in February 2020, reflects these principles and those outlined in Mayer-Schönberger’s research [R3]. The strategy acknowledges the potential in the ‘ increasing volume of non-personal industrial data and public data in Europe, combined with technological change in how the data is stored and processed’ as a ‘ potential source of growth and innovation that should be tapped’ and therefore ‘ that data should be available to all – whether public or private, big or small, start-up or giant’ [E13, p.1]. To this end, the Commission committed to exploring ‘ the need for legislative action on issues that affect relations between actors in the data-agile economy.’ Though the general principle was to encourage voluntary rather than mandated sharing in the first instance, ‘ where specific circumstances so dictate access to data should be made compulsory.’ [E13, p.13]

Two legislative proposals were subsequently submitted to the European Parliament and European Council on 15 December 2020: The Digital Services Act, and the Digital Markets Act. The latter acknowledges the business advantage inherent in the generation and possession of large quantities of data by Big Tech companies (p.15, 22, 24, 26), and makes provision to ensure that Big Tech firms, or ‘gatekeepers’, provide unhindered, free access to data generated by their businesses on the gatekeeper’s platforms. Aggregated datasets gathered by online search engines regarding online searches and the use of such information constitutes ‘an important barrier to entry and expansion’ and therefore gatekeepers should provide access ‘to these ranking, query, click and view data in relation to free and paid search generated by consumers on online search engine services’ to other business users, whilst ensuring the protection of the personal data of end users [E14, pp.26-27].

The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA) has raised the quality of strategic conversations and led to invention and testing of new options and actions in multiple industries and sectors worldwide, including healthcare, finance, manufacturing, energy, security law enforcement, and charities. Approximately 1,000 individuals from several hundred organisations have been through the Oxford Scenarios Programme (OSP) to date. The OSP is Saïd Business School’s executive development programme founded on the methodology. Alumnae have deployed the OSPA to the benefit of firms such as Rolls-Royce, Anglo-American, and Wärtsilä; intergovernmental organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Patent Office (EPO), and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); NGOs and charities such as the World Economic Forum (WEF), Diabetes UK, and Mercy Corps; and scientific and professional fields such as Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC), BMJ, and United European Gastroenterology. As illustrative examples, participants on the OSP have collaborated with Ramirez on joint scholarly publications that explore the ways in which the OSPA has been employed in their institutions. One such example is Rolls-Royce [R2].

Changes in strategic planning at Rolls-Royce

After issuing 4 profit warnings and witnessing a share price fall of over 50%, in 2016 the OSPA helped Rolls-Royce develop a new strategic planning process that re-orientated the company’s investment process. Several dozen top managers had participated in an OSPA-centred programme the previous summer. This led to an appetite for a company-wide scenario planning process. 25 mid-and-senior level executives selected from different business units, functions, and locations, attended a 3-day OSP workshop, during which they developed a set of scenarios addressing core strategic questions. According to Rolls-Royce’s VP Strategy: ‘These are now used…as a stress test of the resilience of the group and business strategic plans carried out at least annually, and also as one of the decision criteria for each strategic investment option being considered. It is acknowledged within the company that the use of scenario planning contributed to the acceleration of some key strategic investments for the company which otherwise may have been delayed until a future time.’ [E1]

According to the VP Strategy, the introduction of the OSPA as a tool to stress-test the group and business unit strategic plans also yielded several ‘soft’ benefits, including: ‘an “unfreezing” of the senior executives’ thought patterns to become more aware and creative; a mechanism to “make sense” of contextual complexities and uncertainties; a structured thinking approach for considering alternative plausible futures (even if not probable); [and] an ability to collaborate in the wider industrial strategic arenas where scenario planning is more mature/developing.’ [E1]

Incorporating longer-term risks and uncertainties into the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) analysis

The OSPA has supported the IMF’s mission across its 3 major business lines of economic surveillance, lending, and capacity development. According to the IMF’s Director of Strategy, the IMF consulted Ramirez on ‘how to incorporate longer-term risks and uncertainties into [its] traditionally shorter-term analysis.’ [E2] This led to 2 rounds of scenario planning: the first in 2012, the second in 2016. ‘Prof Ramirez’s research, including his book* [R1] …served as important references for guiding scenario planning at the IMF. We have used recent research articles to motivate users [R2] , inform scenario design questions, and tailor scenario planning to users more accustomed to working with probability-related concepts [R5] .’ [E2]

An ongoing review of the IMF’s economic surveillance activities uses custom-built OSPA scenarios to identify work priorities that are robust in an uncertain future and will influence how the IMF allocates resources across its 189 member countries. The Director of Strategy confirms: ‘Our Fall 2018 Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa [E3] used scenario planning – rooted in Prof Ramirez’s research – to call for an adaption of development strategies to demographic, climatic, and technological change.’ [E2]

In response to the 2013-16 Ebola outbreak, the IMF established the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust to provide grants for debt relief for the poorest and most vulnerable countries hit by catastrophic natural disasters or public health disasters. ‘Scenario planning helped IMF management to respond quickly with this new Trust by sensitizing them to how the Fund can help stop a non-economic trigger from causing snowball effects on economic growth and stability,’ says the Director of Strategy [E2]. ‘I can attest that the OSPA has had a considerable impact on the mindsets of IMF staff... It helps us anticipate and cope with ongoing changes… we feel that we have collectively improved our ability to stay ahead of developments and respond with policy options when the need arises.’ [E2]

Improving reception of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF’s) strategic foresight work with key stakeholders

The experience of WEF staff at the OSP, combined with WEF’s collaboration with Ramirez between 2012 and 2014, changed the way WEF approached scenarios and improved the reception of the Forum’s strategic foresight work with key stakeholders and communities as a result. According to WEF’s Head of Society and Innovation, WEF’s new strategic foresight project on future availability of natural resources [E4] ‘ differed markedly from previous scenario projects because it focused specifically on a critical insight from Oxford research around the power and importance of surfacing assumptions in scenario practice [R2, 5] .’ [E5]

Application of the OSPA meant that participants perceived and experienced the new scenario method as a form of ‘interesting research’ that revealed competing assumptions, new dynamics, and complex contexts for the management of natural resources. Resulting project publications by WEF experienced a significant increase in media mentions and positive feedback from among Forum communities. ‘The project engaged in workshops and dialogue more than twice the number of participants (300) as the average project of its type and duration. The main project was also used to “reframe” strategic conversations around resources with stakeholders – for example, with the members of the Minerals Council of Australia, community groups and Australian policy makers in a series of very challenging but productive workshops,’ confirms WEF’s Head of Society and Innovation. [E5]

Increasing revenues and prioritising the digital agenda at management consultants Kearney and Atkins

Between 2011 and 2018, 128 of Kearney’s international clients participated in the OSP, representing 29 countries; 50 of Kearney’s partners attended (over 15% of partners), and 16 VPs and Principals from the company (194 participants in total). In the words of Managing Director of Kearney’s internal think-tank, the Global Business Policy Council: ‘The program with Oxford has led to a wider application of scenario planning across the various practices (both industry and service sector) of our organization. This impact cannot be overstated. By involving so many of our partners…we have affected a sea change in the firm’s conceptual point of departure, frame of reference, preferred methodology, and intra-firm “communities” that champion the Oxford approach to serving the scenario needs of clients. The number of Kearney projects involving scenario planning has risen significantly since the onset of our program with Oxford. So too have the revenues associated with scenario-related client work.’ [E6]

The OSPA led to prioritisation of the digital agenda at design, engineering, and project management consultancy, Atkins. ‘Impacts have mainly been in the justification for, and adoption of, technology-led strategy, which has steered the priorities of the whole business,’ says the Director of Strategic Planning (DSP). Group Information Services were reorganised at the company in early 2016. Referring to R1, the DSP confirms that the OSPA ‘informed the strategy workshops undertaken in 2015 and subsequent years – and was instrumental in the prioritisation of the digital agenda within Atkins over the last few years. In particular, the 2014 and 2015 engagements catalysed the introduction of further external thinking into senior level workshops in the early part of 2015 – including the invitation to representatives from a technology provider and data analytics firm. This brought this area of the business to the fore and progressively changed the way it was articulated externally to the market.’ [E7]

Tackling technological weakness within the Danish National Police

In the context of a comprehensive review of its internal strategic governance structure in autumn 2017 and full review of its corporate strategy, an OSP live case forced the Danish National Police to tackle their severe technological weakness and introduced the OSPA as an internal tool for management. ‘The impact of our participation in the OSP can be documented from the amendments that were made to the corporate strategy to the decision to alter the internal governance structure to accommodate semi-annual reviews of the strategy in the senior management board. The decision to tackle the ICT assumptions head on resulted in a decision to launch a comprehensive review of the ICT organization of the Danish Police in late 2019, early 2020,’ says the Deputy Director, Strategy and Analysis. [E8]

Diversifying income at Diabetes UK

66 staff (16% of Diabetes UK’s workforce) have been trained in the OSPA following the Director of Operations’ attendance at the OSP in April 2017. ‘ [R1] was used as a guide by the scenarios core team we set up in the charity…it was read by our Chief Exec and Head of Strategy amongst others,’ confirms the Director of Operations. [E9]

The OSPA scenarios led to an assessment of the charity’s portfolio of income generating activities. According to the Director of Operations: ‘The scenarios had highlighted for us the need to engage more in digital healthcare and we have seen an opportunity both to bring in funds through our knowledge assets on diabetes in this area, and also to help shape the digital healthcare agenda for diabetes. We have agreed a staged investment process for several £00k in a programme of work to develop this.’ [E9]

In addition, the OSPA led to a new programme of work on inequalities arising from future scenarios: ‘One of the most striking conclusions we came to from the scenarios thinking was the extent of the new inequalities for some groups and individuals with diabetes that each of our scenarios led to. We have therefore set up a whole programme of work around this area…we are investing in this and have agreed that all our work needs to look through the various different lenses of inequalities that the scenarios highlighted. We are seeing this play out with Covid-19 as it has highlighted the heightened mortality risks to people with diabetes in the lowest income decile,’ says the Director of Operations. [E9]

The above examples illustrate how the greatest value from the OSPA has come from organisations’ embedding the re-perception that the OSPA has helped bring about as an input to other processes. In this way, the OSPA has contributed to organisations’ agility and adaptability by maintaining a more open sense of future and delivering new and different thriving and coping options, all of which are key elements of organisational resilience.

Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) methodology has been used extensively by governments and practitioners in the UK and internationally as a complement to more traditional quantitative risk assessments in megaproject management.

Impact on UK major projects

In the UK, RCF forms a core part of the Infrastructure and Projects Authority’s (IPA) 2016 guidance on risk management [E1] and a special report by the National Auditor. RCF is also used as the method to establish the ‘Optimism Bias Uplift’ required by HM Treasury’s 2018 Green Book, which provides definitive analytical guidance for government on how to appraise policies, programmes, and projects that concern public spending [E2]. Members of the IPA – the government’s centre of expertise for infrastructure and major projects – have benefitted from instruction on the RCF methodology at Saïd Business School’s Major Projects Leadership Academy. The National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) has used RCF to inform the Government’s 2019 consultation on a Regulated Asset Base approach to financing nuclear power plants [E3a], and in its 2020 study informing the government’s Integrated Rail Plan for the Midlands and the North [E3b]. The most high-profile uses of RCF methodology in the assessment period have been High Speed 2 (HS2) and Edinburgh Tram Extension.

Increasing confidence in treatment of risk at Europe’s largest infrastructure project

The Department for Transport (DfT) relied on RCF as the most objective means of reviewing adequacy of contingency when setting the Funding Envelope and Target Cost in the Full Business Case (FBC) supporting Phase One main civils construction works for HS2 in April 2020. The Project Management Office Director at HS2 Ltd, responsible for setting the enterprise-wide standard for project management and controls, confirms RCF’s influence on the company’s approach to risk: ‘The Oxford team has been supporting HS2 for 4 years; helping the company to understand how it can apply Reference Class Forecasting to provide a more realistic view of outturn costs, to support more traditional QRA model outputs. This work resulted in several briefings to central Government and increased confidence in stakeholders and sponsors that the HS2 project can deliver and should go ahead.’ [E4a]

Flyvbjerg and Budzier provided the reference class forecast for HS2’s FBC using a customised dataset of 526 similar projects. DfT complemented their analysis with HS2 Ltd’s Quantitative Cost Risk Assessment (QCRA) to arrive at an overall judgement on the Funding Envelope and Target Cost for delivering Phase One of GBP35-45,000,000,000 (Q3 2019) and GBP40,000,000,000, respectively [E4b]. The interim Head of Risk at HS2 Ltd acknowledges that this work ‘is now viewed as the benchmark for the company and the DfT when comparing QRAs against RCFs to inform risk-based decision-making.’ **[E4c] **

Announcing the project’s move from enabling works to full construction in September 2020, HS2 Ltd expected to recruit 22,000 new roles [E4d]. This was in addition to more than 9,000 people already employed, and over 2,000 UK businesses with contracts. RCF’s pivotal role in setting a more realistic baseline for the project was a key part of the FBC supporting this outcome. Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s engagement with HS2 Ltd continues in 2021, providing route wide RCF services for phases 1, 2a and 2b, together with designing and delivering internal and external stakeholder training on treatment of risk and uncertainty in the project.

Informing contingency planning at Edinburgh Tram Extension

Edinburgh City Council used RCF in 2018 to test and refine its approach to risk before deciding to proceed with construction of the Edinburgh Tram to Newhaven extension. The project completes the originally envisaged Phase 1a of the Edinburgh tram network in Scotland, connecting Leigh and Newhaven to the current end of the Edinburgh tram line. Previously the project team had used Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and government guidance on adjusting for optimism bias to make risk provisions in the form of contingency of GBP43,200,000, representing a 26% uplift on top of the project’s base cost estimate of GBP164,100,000, and a total cost estimate of GBP207,300,000. Flyvbjerg and Budzier established a cumulative probability distribution for a selected reference class of 89 completed light rail extension projects, ordering projects by size of overrun and their cumulative share in the sample. Placing the Edinburgh tram extension at an appropriate point in the reference class distribution, they calculated the existing 26% provision for risk was equivalent to a 39% acceptable chance of cost overrun. The Council responded by comparing reference class projects in Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s report at 20% chance of overrun (mirroring the base case QRA at probability value P80). This resulted in a revised project cost inclusive of optimism bias of GBP257,600,000, an increase of over GBP50,000,000 on the original estimate. This increased the GBP1,900,000 cashflow challenge for the project to GBP14,800,000, with reserves being repaid by 2037 instead of 2027 [E5b].

Reflecting on Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s earlier report to the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry in February 2018 (which referenced **[R1-R6]**), the Council decided to make contingency plans for the higher project cost of GBP257,600,000. This required a series of measures be implemented to fund or mitigate the risk. The Council investigated options to address the increased cashflow challenge by identifying mitigation measures such as forward borrowing to lower cost of funding, review of fare strategy for tram, and bringing forward operational efficiencies, including potential savings on tram and infrastructure maintenance [E5a]. The Council undertook capital cost sensitivity testing as part of its assurance process to determine that the project’s benefit cost ratio remained positive based on Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s optimism bias at probability value P80.

The Project Director of the Edinburgh Tram Extension confirms: ‘Prof Flyvbjerg and Dr Budzier provided a reference class forecast for the project, and in discussion with the project team, advised on the application of the reference class forecast...This served a dual purpose. Primarily, it gave confidence that the budget set aside to complete the project was realistic, and secondly, it provided a counterpoint to the standard QRA approach giving a context for discussion on approach to risk in the project more widely.’ [E5b]

The March 2019 FBC economic appraisal estimated net public transport user benefits of over GBP395,000,000 from the project and overall net present value of GBP112,800,000, as well as contributions to wider policy objectives and outcomes for the city in terms of spatial planning, development strategies, and improved accessibility for areas of high deprivation. The project is creating several hundred jobs during its construction phase and once operational is forecast to create an additional 78 jobs rising to 92 by 2032 [E5a]. Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s research supported the financial modelling in the FBC that gave the Council confidence to proceed.

International impact on major projects

In Hong Kong, Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s research has led to the introduction of an enhanced Environmental and Risk Assessment Stage to government projects. **[R4] ‘has provided valuable insights into how projects should be planned and how early estimates…can be de-biased to prevent cost overruns and time-to-completion delays using RCF approach. In the past 3 years, the Project Strategy and Governance Office has managed to vet more than 200 projects and saved more than HKD50,000,000,000* (09-2020 - GBP5,070,993,915) project cost by adopting cost-effective design and optimising the contingency allowance,’ according to the Secretary for Development (Works), Development Bureau [E6]. RCF was also used by MTR Corporation Limited in 2017 to deliver the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link within the project’s re-set budget and ahead of its re-planned opening date [E7]. In Australia, RCF has informed policy for the planning of federal transport projects since 2018, and in New Zealand it has led to introduction of procedures for de-biasing estimates through the ‘Better Business Cases’ initiative of the Treasury. In Ireland, the Department for Public Expenditure and Reform put recommendations to de-bias project estimates into its 2019 Public Spending Code [E8]. Notable examples of the research’s international impact in the assessment period are the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project in Canada, and potential host cities for the Olympics.

Influencing the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador’s approach to risk

Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s 2018 report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project in Canada drew on [R1], [R3], and [R6] to provide the national and international context for the CAD12,700,000,000 (06-2017 - GBP7,514,792,899) hydroelectric scheme’s failure with regards to cost and schedule overrun, as well as identifying root causes of such overruns. Consequently, RCF was recommended by the Commission to prevent such overruns in hydro-electric dam and other capital investment projects in the future. Flyvbjerg provided expert testimony reviewing highlights of the paper at the public hearings of the independent inquiry on 17 September 2018. The final report of the inquiry noted in its conclusions on cost estimates made at time of project sanction that ‘estimates were affected by optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation and political bias, as these terms were defined by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg.’ [E9a] The final report made several recommendations in recognition of these issues, including ‘recognizing the likelihood of bias in any cost and schedule estimate, government should require the project proponent to provide a range of cost estimates to establish the project’s budget, so that government can determine its own risk appetite.’ The Government updated on implementation of the recommendations in 2020, noting ‘the Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure will adopt recommendations to current risk assessment methodology for construction of large project [within 6-12 months].’ [E9b]

Informing candidate countries’ decisions on whether to host the Olympic Games

[R5], first published as a working paper in 2012, updated in 2016, provided the first authoritative database of cost overrun risks for the Olympic Games. As a result of the research, several potential hosts have reconsidered hosting the Games, including Rome, Oslo, and Hamburg. In a press conference reported in The Financial Times, The Guardian, and The Telegraph on 21 September 2016, the Mayor of Rome referred to a working paper of [R5] when she cancelled the city’s candidacy for the 2024 Olympics, noting that ‘previous host cities such as London have been left with massive cost overruns and huge debts.’ [E10a] Similarly, the leader of citizen engagement behind the campaign to stop Boston’s bid for the 2024 Olympics referred to Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s research showing cost overruns in recent Olympic Games when asked: ‘What do you think did the most to convince Bostonians that the Olympics were a bad idea?’ He replied: ‘I think the most important talking point we had was around the taxpayer guarantee. The International Olympic Committee requires host cities to sign a contract saying taxpayers will be responsible for cost overruns…it was hard for the public to trust the boosters and ensure there wouldn't be costs to pay in the case of overruns, as there have been in all of the recent Olympics.’ [E10b] The Economist has also cited Flyvbjerg and Budzier’s research as the reason why Budapest withdrew its bid to host the Games.

Trevor’s published research has had a significant impact on organisational practice both at a sector and enterprise-level internationally. The concepts in R1 have informed his work with senior leadership teams from over 25 global companies, including IBM, BNY Mellon, HSBC, Shell and Serco. Three Harvard Business Review (HBR) articles, written by Trevor, part of the same body of work as R1, have together received almost 130,000 unique page views within 3 months of publication; twice the average, according to HBR’s Executive Editor [E1]. These practitioner-oriented articles have led directly to Trevor’s engagement at organisations such as Essex County Council where the Strategic Alignment Framework (SAF) decision-making tool precipitated a change in the Council’s public service strategy, investment in organisational capability and corporate change. Trevor’s research has had sector-wide impact in the UK Further Education (FE) sector, with Strategic Alignment (SA) included in the ‘FE Preparing for CEO Programme’ at the Saïd Business School. Over a quarter of the 71 participants are now in CEO roles and the remainder in deputy CEO roles [E2]. His research has also had impact at the enterprise-level in many different sectors. This case study highlights 4 multi-sectoral examples of his research impact during the assessment period: ECC and the British Army in the UK; and Ricoh Europe and Development Bank of Japan, internationally.

UK Government Sector: Investing in organisational capability at Essex County Council

The SAF was used by the Corporate Leadership Team (CLT) of Essex County Council (ECC) in 2016 to review the Council’s enterprise purpose, business strategy and organisational capability in the context of 21st century challenges. Serving 1,440,000 citizens and directly employing around 7,000 staff, ECC is one of the largest and most demographically diverse local authorities in the UK. According to the Director of Organisational Development and People, a key problem for ECC was that ‘prior to the Strategic Alignment workshops, our senior leadership team had very diverse views on what our core purpose was.’ [E3] The prevailing strategic focus had been on ‘ service delivery to small cohorts of hard-pressed individuals – we spent 50% of our budget on 5% of our population.’ As a result, the Council failed to engage the wider population in its goal of promoting economic and social well-being. Signalling a shift in focus, ECC’s new CEO approached Trevor in 2016 after reading his article on strategic alignment in HBR, based on the same body of work as R1 [E3]: ‘The idea was to take the ECC value chain and use Strategic Alignment to envision what the future of the Council might look like and to build a practical pathway towards a new articulation of priorities.’ [E3]

Trevor led an intervention over an 18-month period involving a series of 5 workshops with ECC’s 15 most senior executives – its executive board and their direct reports – and a whole day session with 150 of ECC’s top managers. Senior executives reflected on ECC’s core purpose and undertook enterprise-level mapping using the SAF to understand which organisational capabilities were required to implement the Council’s ambitious new strategy. The result was a reformulation of ECC’s purpose: ‘Jonathan’s work helped us crystallise our core purpose as an organisation […] This was a significant change.’ [E3] The use of Trevor’s research guided a reformulation of the strategy, capability, and shape of ECC organisationally, including its approach to public service provision. Externally, ECC broadened its focus to a much wider section of the community. Hard-pressed working families with children below the minimum income standard became a new strategic priority: ‘ This was a new cohort of approximately 140,000 households…the Council agreed to an initial [text removed for publication] investment to support initiatives to address the needs of this group.’ [E3]

Internal mapping of all ECC directorates using the SAF indicated that ECC’s new business strategy required a radical shift in organisational culture, structure and people capability. The Council’s existing “Efficiency Maximiser” approach was not fit for purpose; the new business strategy required enhanced organisational connectivity and agility - the “Network Exploiter” approach [R1]. ECC’s CLT used the results to initiate a fundamental and enterprise-wide transformation to develop the organisational capabilities required to better serve its communities and their complex needs.

Starting in 2018, ECC invested [text removed for publication] in its workforce strategy - “Our People Plan” - and organisational redesign, aimed at transforming its human resources to be better capable of leveraging internal and external networks of innovators, partners and suppliers. ECC’s 2019-20 Annual Report [E4, p.37-8] refers to the introduction of a new performance development system, a review of working culture, and the launch of a digital learning platform to support innovation exchange between 700 employees across 9 different internal and external community groups. ‘Through the Strategic Alignment framework, we could systematically diagnose ECC’s prevailing organisational culture, structure, processes and people capability, and the extent to which these key organisational components support strategic goals and priorities and identify further any potential barriers to organisational effectiveness. Jonathan’s framework was instrumental in driving fundamental organisational redesign.’ [E3]

ECC’s 2017-2021 Organisation Strategy [E5, p.30] indicates the impact of Trevor’s research as a ‘golden thread’ in the Council’s strategic planning process. ECC’s Director of Strategy, Insight and Engagement confirms that ‘the Strategic Alignment framework guided our approach to developing business planning, including aligning functional business plans to the Organisation Strategy (assisted by moving to 4-year business plans in alignment with the 4-year strategy); aligning activity in business plans with the budget; and aligning activity in business plans with the organisational capability needed to deliver it…[allowing] the Council as a whole to better align the budget to strategic priorities, deliver a more integrated approach to developing our workforce, property and technology, and focus on delivering fewer major programmes but with greater strategic alignment and therefore impact.’ [E3]

UK Government Sector: Developing senior leadership capability in the British Army

In the context of a dramatically changing and unstable global landscape, and the impending Integrated Security, Defence and Foreign Policy Review 2020, the SAF has provided the British Army (BA)’s most senior leaders with a common language and system of thought, enabling them to: (i) review BA’s purpose in the current political and social climate; (ii) prioritise the allocation of scarce resources behind a shared set of strategic priorities; (iii) evaluate the fitness of the BA’s current organisation and capability; (iv) and identify opportunities for positive change.

Since 2015, Trevor has helped to apply the SAF to the Army Generalship Programme (AGP), organised through the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. The programme is aimed at one, two- and three-star Generals drawn from across the BA’s divisions. The objective is to help them think differently about how the BA can operate successfully in future as one enterprise with multiple moving parts. As of the end of June, 2020, over 60 two-star Generals and Civil Servants have been through the programme to review the BA’s long-term purpose, strategy, and organisational capability, using Trevor’s strategic alignment concepts and the SAF.

Major General (retired) [text removed for publication] comments: ‘Prof Trevor has provided support to, and commensurate impact upon, the personal and professional development of 4 annual cohorts of Army Generalship, influencing over 60 individuals as they progress into the highest ranks. It is a key element of the development of the British Army’s leadership capability, recent examples of which include - all officers and civil servants who have attended the AGP to date will be at least indirectly involved in the 2020 Integrated Review. At least 11 of those graduates of the course will be directly and intimately involved in the Integrated Review, either from an Army perspective, or a wider Defence perspective.’ [E6]

International Private Sector: Guiding Ricoh Europe’s digital services transformation

The Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Ricoh Europe – part of the Japanese multinational printing and digital management company – credits the company’s use of the SAF with significant business improvements during Ricoh’s rapid evolution from hardware provider to digital services company. More than 25% of Ricoh’s global revenue now comes from office services and not print. This has required a significant shift in the company’s business strategy and organisational capability – from stable and autonomous to agile and connected – placing new demands on its 30,000 strong workforce. According to the COO, ‘The SAF has provided the sensemaking device for our corporate board when making enterprise-wide decisions relating to both strategic and organisational design. It has helped us overcome culture, people and technology challenges whilst transforming as a business.’ [E7]

Ricoh Europe used the SAF in 2016 to support a new approach for their 3-year mid-term plan and to disseminate a clearer vision for their business strategy . They also introduced a new programme to retrain their network of over 4,500 engineers across Europe to better align their capability to their strategy . The company also sought to change its culture, shifting from a “command and control” management approach to more open structure. ‘The benefits…have been wide-reaching. We now have a more customer-focussed workforce, with employees reporting a feeling of ownership for success of the group…A better cascade of information has led to more informed, collaborative decision-making and an increase in trust throughout the organisation.’ Overall, changes have significantly improved the firm’s performance over previous years – ‘ our financial results over the past two years are the best they have been in years’. [E7]

The SAF has also been used to structure Ricoh’s Future of Work Customer Advisory Board (CAB), bringing together 25 global companies over the past 4 years to envision the future of work in a facilitated academic environment. Every 6 months, a 3-day summit is held in which senior executives from [text removed for publication] exchange knowledge and share insights about the impact of emerging customer trends, new technologies and business environment changes on business strategy and alignment of work organisation. Outputs of discussions are captured, disseminated and used to inform individual company practice. For example, this includes the SAF being used as the toolkit to better align [text removed for publication] 500-strong EMEA corporate real estate function, responsible for billions of pounds of corporate real estate and physical capital [E7].

International Public Sector: Improving performance at Development Bank of Japan

Trevor has worked with Japanese government-owned Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) since 2016, using the SAF to help to develop the bank’s business strategy and organisational capability to improve performance and impact. The Head of the Bank’s Human Resources Management Department confirms: ‘Professor Trevor’s strategic alignment action research has provided DBJ leaders with a valuable framework to make sense of the diversification of our business portfolio and associated organisational changes to be fit for purpose and high performing…the strategic alignment research has helped us to systematically choose business strategies and develop organisational capabilities, resources, and management systems that improve the performance of DBJ whilst supporting our long-term purpose.’ [E8]

In 2018, DBJ commissioned the University of Oxford (and Trevor specifically) to create the Global Strategic Alignment Leadership Programme (GSALP), a custom executive education offering founded on SA concepts, and intended to support the development of high potential future leaders from across DBJ’s divisions. 45 employees have been through the programme to date. ‘Informed directly by Professor Trevor’s strategic alignment research, the purpose of GSALP is to create a cadre of global leaders within DBJ to lead business transformation in line with our Long-Term Vision 2030 and implement our midterm business plans.’ [E8] Beyond the development of its human resources, GSALP has led to targeted improvements in the bank’s organisational structure, people and culture for improved innovation: [text removed for publication] [E8].

DBJ’s 2019 Integrated Report [E9, p.54-5] features interviews with 4 GSALP participants, who describe how the programme has benefitted their day-to-day work. Among the benefits they list are: ‘engaging in daily work with DBJ’s long-term vision always in mind,’ and ‘helping expand DBJ’s fund procurement base through discussions with peers about DBJ’s “Now” and “Future”.’

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UK pension funds are obliged to seek advice from ICs, and most of the GBP1,600,000,000,000 of UK assets advised on by ICs are held by pension funds. The ability of pension funds to appoint ICs based on a clear record of performance is essential to the efficient allocation of their assets. The regulatory and reporting changes resulting from Jenkinson’s and Jones’s research mean that pension funds will have this ability in future.

The impact occurred in two stages. First, Jenkinson’s and Jones’s existing research on ICs raised awareness about the quality of ICs’ advice, which led to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) including ICs in their 2016–17 Asset Management Market Study. Awareness was raised in academic and practitioner conferences and seminars at which the research was presented and by extensive press coverage (Financial Times 22/09/2013, 29/09/2013, 10/11/2013; New York Times 30/09/2013; Forbes 1/10/2013; and The Economist 05/03/2015). The research done by Jenkinson and Jones as part of the FCA’s Market Study then led to regulatory and industry changes in the asset management sector, as detailed below.

The FCA’s Asset Management Market Study

The work on ICs which Jenkinson and Jones had been doing since 2012 [R1, R2] had raised awareness about the value added of ICs’ advice and recommendations. The FCA approached Saïd Business School in 2015, asking Jenkinson and Jones to organise a joint University of Oxford–FCA conference on asset management as a precursor to a market study. The conference took place in October that year. Conducted under Chatham House rules and opened by Dame Helena Morrissey, it included 50 speakers, panellists, and discussants, representing asset owners, asset managers, investment consultants, regulators, and academics. [Text removed for publication]

Jenkinson and Jones helped the FCA design the analysis on ICs for the Market Study, using the same methodology that they had used in their earlier research. The interim Market Study was published in November 2016, and the final Study in April 2017. The report findings echoed those of Jenkinson and Jones’ earlier research [R1, R2], stating that ‘on average, consultants are not able to identify managers that offer better returns to investors’, and that ‘many institutional investors struggle to monitor and assess the performance of the advice they receive. There is no standardised framework to assess the quality of advice or to help investors assess whether they are achieving value for money.’ [E2]

Working closely with the FCA, Jones and Jenkinson co-authored the section on Investment Consultants in the FCA’s Interim Asset Management Market Study in November 2016. This drew on a large sample of data, from a range of asset classes, collected from 7 ICs (including the 3 with the UK greatest market share) by the FCA under its regulatory powers. The research supported the principal finding of their earlier work and showed that across all major asset classes ICs failed on average to add value.

The Market Study recommended, pending consultation, that the IC industry be referred to the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) for an in-depth investigation [E1]. Jenkinson briefed CMA in June 2017 in preparation for its investigation, specifically about the transparency of ICs’ claims. The FCA formally referred the matter to CMA in September of that year, the first time it had used the then recently conferred power to refer an industry or sector to the CMA.

The CMA Investigation

Building on the research for the FCA Asset Management Market Study, Jenkinson and Jones conducted additional research with the FCA on the claims of consultants in their marketing materials, finding these claims to be largely misleading [R3]. This research was shared with the CMA and helped to inform its investigation. The CMA’s investigation used the analytical techniques designed by Jenkinson and Jones for the FCA [E3]. After an extensive consultation period, during which ICs were invited to critique the CMA’s analysis, the CMA confirmed the findings of the FCA’s Market Study, demonstrating a lack of value added from IC recommendations. Moreover, difficulties in accessing information about the quality of their provider of asset management services led to a lack of engagement by some pension schemes in choosing and monitoring their providers.

The CMA published its final report in December 2018, in which it recommended that ICs be required to disclose publicly the performance of any recommended asset management products to a common set of standards, and that the government broaden the regulatory scope of the FCA to encompass greater oversight of the Investment Consultancy industry [E4]. These recommendations were welcomed by the Executive Director of Strategy and Competition, FCA: ‘It is essential that competition works well as these services have a significant impact on retirement outcomes of millions of pension savers.’ [E5] The FCA asked the Treasury to extend its regulatory remit to include investment consultancy services and asset allocation advice in February 2019 [E6].

In June 2019, CMA published The Investment Consultancy and Fiduciary Management Market Investigation Order 2019 [E7]. This Order required ‘fiduciary managers – who make decisions on behalf of trustees – and investment consultants to provide clearer information about what their customers are getting for their money, and incentivise pension scheme trustees to shop around to make sure they are getting the best deal to suit their needs.’ [E8] In a press release announcing the Order, Chair of the investigation said: ‘Millions of people rely on pension scheme trustees to invest their savings effectively…Our investigation found that many trustees lack the information needed to assess and compare investment consultants and fiduciary managers, meaning they may not be getting the best value for their members’ money. By putting the requirements of our investigation into law today, we will increase competition and make sure these markets work better for UK pension beneficiaries.’ [E8]

Industry Changes

Trustees, fiduciary managers, and investment consultants were given 6 months from publication of the order (June 2019) to ensure that their practices were in line with its requirements, with the threat those found not in compliance would be taken to court by the CMA [E8].

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Improving tax compliance in Belgium

The research has led cumulatively to an estimated EUR100,000,000 in tax being paid earlier in Belgium since the experiments began in 2015. This has generated a structural difference in tax revenue of approximately EUR10,000,000 for the Belgian Federal Public Service (FPS) Finance, including cost savings of approximately EUR4,000,000 due to fewer administrative costs and reduced need for enforcement action to induce late taxpayers to pay. The research has both advanced payments (leading to cost savings) and raised more tax revenue overall.

Addressing the Federal Parliament in January 2019, the Belgian Minister of Finance confirmed that for the 2015 tax year EUR30,000,000 revenue was collected more quickly compared with previous years (when simplified letters were not used), EUR4,000,000 additional revenue was received, and EUR1,000,000 saved in enforcement costs [E1]. He provided a similar update for the 2016 tax year: ‘Our analyses, carried out in collaboration with our academic partners Jan-Emmanuel De Neve (University of Oxford) and Johannes Spinnewijn, show that similar positive results were also achieved for the 2016 tax year. In total, the new interventions…accelerated the payment of EUR25,000,000 in personal income tax, with EUR3,000,000 (01-2019) in additional income and EUR1,400,000 in recovery costs saved.’ [E1] [Translation from Dutch]

A 2019 OECD report on successful tax debt management strategies in member countries confirms that ‘the experiments conducted so far [with Belgian FPS Finance] resulted in an estimated net benefit of around EUR4,000,000 per fiscal year. On average, the interventions resulted in an 18.2% rise in paid amounts, 17.4% rise in the number of tax liabilities with a payment and a 16.8% rise in the number of tax liabilities with a full payment. As a result, the Belgian Tax Administration has set up a Behavioural Unit to integrate behavioural studies and experiments into its collection and recovery processes.’ [E2]

The Behavioural Unit was referred to by the Belgian Minister of Finance as an outcome of the trial’s success: ‘The undeniable positive results of the various experiments that the Federal Public Service (FPS) Finance has carried out in recent years clearly demonstrate the added value of the use of behavioural theories. Small, low-cost interventions can have a big impact on the behaviour of those liable for payment and reporting…The current and future Governance Agreement with the FPS Finance refers to the importance of applying nudging and behavioural insights to incentivise taxpayers to fulfil their tax obligations. In this context, a new unit is currently being set up within the General Administration of Collection and Recovery that will specifically deal with Tax Compliance and the role behavioural insights can play in this.’ [E1] [Translation from Dutch]

The research in [R2] was designed and conducted in close collaboration with the Belgian FPS Finance’s General Administration of Collection and Debt Recovery. The initial working paper of [R1] received significant attention and led to an invitation for De Neve to speak at FPS Finance in 2015. Based on De Neve’s research and expertise in behavioural science, the Ministry agreed in 2015 to his proposal to develop large-scale field trials to apply behavioural insights to tax filing and tax payment processes in the country.

De Neve was the lead academic in a team from Warwick and LSE working with FPS Finance. The field experiments ran over 2 tax years between 2016 and 2018 and involved regular meetings between the academics and senior government officials, including the President of FPS Finance, the Administrator-General for Collection and Debt Recovery, and the Administrator-General for Taxation for Individuals. According to the Project Manager in the General Administration for Collection and Debt Recovery at the time (now Advisor leading the Tax Compliance and Behavioural Insights Unit established following the trial’s success): ‘This partnership helped to ensure that the project had a scientific basis and consequently met the conditions for evidence-based policy making based on test/control/intervention. This collaboration with academics quickly grew into a win-win situation, in which the government could rely on scientific expertise that it did not have in-house, and in which academics, thanks to access to (anonymised) administrative data, were able to test their theoretical insights in practice.’ [E3]

The early success of the trial was reported widely in state media [E4, 5] and the Tax Compliance and Behavioural Insight Unit established in November 2018. It initiates and oversees the use of behavioural nudges to enhance the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of all policies targeting tax compliance. According to the unit’s Advisor: ‘all letters sent to individuals or organizations that owe tax of any kind are now reviewed to see if they can be improved by employing the techniques trialled in the research. This includes VAT payment reminders, communication about split payment plans and reminder letters to pay penal fines, amongst others. The research findings are also used in a digital context to enhance uptake and good decision making in the E-services of the tax administration.’ [E6]

Influencing wider applications of nudging in policymaking

As the first behavioural insights unit to be established within the federal administration, the Tax Compliance and Behavioural Insights unit acts as a centre of expertise on the use of behavioural nudges in policy. The unit’s Advisor comments ‘We share learning from the research and provide advice to other administrations within FPS Finance and more widely across other federal ministries and agencies, and regional governments in Belgium. This has included meetings with representatives from the ministry for social security, ministry for labour, ministry for policy and support and the Federal Agency for Administrative Simplification, as well as the regional governments of Wallonia, Brussels, Flanders and the City of Antwerp.’ [E6]

The research fed into an approved proposal to establish a Flemish Behavioural Insights Team (BIT). The resolution referred to the trial’s success when reviewing evidence for behavioural insights being used successfully in political decision-making: ‘The Federal Public Service (FPS) Finance is especially active in applying or testing behavioural science insights. For example, a ‘nudge’ pilot project is being conducted, led by Jan Emmanuel De Neve, behavioural economist at the University of Oxford, to use adapted reminders to encourage taxpayers to pay their taxes quickly and correctly. There is still a lot of margin, given that many people still file their returns on paper and there are around 800,000 late payers. The letters of formal notice sent to people until last year were very confusing. Through a number of variants of nudges, there is hope that the additional income for the state will soon be significant.’ [E7] [Translation from Dutch]

The proposal cited a November 2015 interview with De Neve in political monthly magazine Samenleving & Politiek – in which he reported on the research in [R2] and called for establishment of a Flemish BIT [E4] – in its acknowledgements that ‘a systematic and more structural application of the insights from the behavioural sciences is also an important stimulus for the development of evidence-based policy.’ [E7] [Translation from Dutch]. The same interview was picked up in a May 2016 briefing paper by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) on Belgium’s institutional structure and capacity for applying behavioural insights to policy [E8]. The proposed resolution was adopted later that year on 26 October 2016 and commits the Flemish regional government to developing a framework for the application of behavioural sciences in political decision-making, trialling behavioural science initiatives in selected policies annually, and establishing a Flemish Behavioural Sciences expert team, which has since been established. [E7].

Another resolution to set up and evaluate nudge projects in selected policy areas within Belgian healthcare was adopted by the Chamber of Representatives on 5 July 2018. This too acknowledged the success of the FPS Finance trial, noting that ‘FPS Finance asked Professor Jan-Emmanuel De Neve to set up an experiment to use modified reminder letters with “nudges” to encourage people to pay faster after a reminder letter. More than 200,000 people who did not pay their personal income tax on time received this letter…Compared to last year, the number of people who did pay increased by 17%. In the days after the letters arrived, it turned 18,000,000 more overdue taxes paid than compared to the form letter sent in previous years. It is estimated that the government will have to spend EUR1,000,000 less to induce payment defaulters.’ [E9] [Translation from Dutch] The proposal mandates that the federal government test and evaluate nudges within selected policy areas in the health sector, implement them if they prove to be successful, and establish a Belgian centre of expertise in behavioural science [E9].

The research is now also having a positive influence on countries outside of Belgium. De Neve and Spinnewijn presented the research to 27 different countries at the OECD and Inter-European Organisation of Tax Administrations (IOTA) conference in Brussels in April 2017 [E3]. IOTA is a non-profit intergovernmental organisation which provides a forum to assist members in European countries to improve their fiscal functionality. After the conference, Belgium recommended that the OECD form a Community of Interest on Behavioural Insights. This was launched in late 2017 and shares best practice in applying behavioural insights to improve public policy worldwide. Belgium also leads the Tax Debt Management Network within the OECD and has promoted Behavioural Insights on the network’s agenda [E6].

The JRC of the European Commission organised a knowledge exchange event at Saïd Business School in 2018, at which De Neve presented the research. Representatives from the Romanian and Polish Ministries of Finance attended with Belgian colleagues to learn and hear best practice. The JRC is currently coordinating a cross-national experiment with several European tax administrations to test the use of nudge messages in tax collection, including the deterrence message nudge tested in the trial. FPS Finance are closely involved in this project, with Belgium providing a leading example of the effective use of nudges [E6]. Outside Europe, De Neve has presented the research to senior representatives of the Internal Revenue Service at their annual conference in the United States, where the research is getting further attention.

The Advisor on Tax Compliance and Behavioural Insights, Federal Public Service (FPS) Finances (Belgium) concludes: ‘I have presented the research to tax authorities in Bulgaria, Ethiopia, Netherlands, Poland, Germany, Macedonia, Serbia and Mali. The tax administration of the Czech Republic is now starting trials on the use of behavioural nudges in communication to taxpayers. The design of its trials and the interventions being tested are directly based on the successful Belgian trials.’ [E6]