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Submitting institution
University of Aberdeen
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Interdisciplinary research across ecological, social sciences and law at the University of Aberdeen addresses a gap relating to stakeholder engagement in marine spatial planning and decision making. The research developed a novel stakeholder-driven methodology to facilitate understanding of outcomes of policy changes surrounding complex marine ecosystems. The method has increased understanding of how natural capital principles can be applied to ecosystems planning throughout the UK, allowing the broader values and benefits from marine ecosystems to inform decision-making. This approach is being incorporated by fishing industry representatives, by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee which informs UK government policy, and in the ‘Marine Pioneer’ (UK Government) programme, testing a natural capital approach to decision making and helping implement the UK 25-year Environment Plan.

2. Underpinning research

The advent of natural capital principles and approaches, which consider the value of the natural environment for people and the economy, has been a recurrent theme in UK marine policy since the 2011 National Ecosystem Assessment and 2014 follow on report (http://uknea.unep\-wcmc.org/\). An examination of the law in Scotland revealed that within the Marine Acts there are multiple mentions of the ‘ecosystem approach’, which integrates management of land, water and living resources to promote conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. Yet nowhere is the approach translated into a decision-making process (Slater & MacDonald 2018, [2]). There was therefore an identifiable need to articulate such a process while striking a balance between varied and vested interests, whether that be proposals for offshore wind farms, marine protected areas, industrial fishing or recreational interests. In response, we developed the Ecosystem Service [ES] matrix [3, 6], a participatory systems analysis developed through the ‘Cooperative Participatory Evaluation of Renewable Technologies on Ecosystem Services (CORPORATES)’ method. This is considered to be the first decision support framework of its kind in the sector [1,2,4, S1] and supports the expansion of participatory methods [7], such as such as mapping activities and benefits associated with different sectors, facilitating joint-sector debate, knowledge exchange, risk mitigation and dialogue on a sector-wide scale in line with UK Policy (http://corporates.moonfruit.com/\).

Building the UK's first Ecosystem Services [ES] matrix

Potts has led research on how ecosystems provide a variety of social-cultural benefits (ecosystem services) [6]. The approach developed the ES matrix in 2014, an analysis of all UK, Scottish, English, NI and Welsh protected habitats and species and an assessment of how they contribute to ecosystem services (e.g. CO2 sequestration, food provision, cultural benefits etc). [6]. The ES matrix was based on an expert-based analysis and peer review quantifying the relationships between protected features and services. We analysed the contributions of 60 habitat features from EU and UK designations, followed by 70 protected species. The matrix was expanded to include health benefits in 2015 [5] and seabirds in 2017. The output was a peer reviewed UK set of features - ES relationships that has informed UK Policy [see supporting testimonial S10] and applied internationally (see below).

Identifying a test bed for the first UK ES policy framework: CORPORATES

Since 2013, Professor Scott, Dr Potts and Ms Slater have sought to address a policy gap in how to make decisions around ES in the marine context [1]. The CORPORATES framework provides a methodology to identify and understand ecological processes and services. It combines social and ecological sciences to help policymakers, planners and decision-makers comprehend an ecosystems approach. We developed a suite of methods including spatial mapping of activities and benefits, conceptual model building on ecosystem dynamics and trade-off analysis that were applied to two workshops in 2015 with participation from marine renewable energy, fisheries, tourism, local government and conservation NGOs. On request we subsequently facilitated training workshops at the request of SNH (now NatureScot), JNCC and 22 regional Marine Planners [see supporting testimonial S1].

Expanding the role of participatory mapping to assess ES

Drawing upon outcomes of the CORPORATES project we recognised that there were significant gaps in [1] the application of natural capital principles at local scales and [2] an understanding of how to do so. This coincided with the launch of the UK Government’s 25-Year Environment Plan, which calls for a requirement to understand the full value of the marine environment, taking into account all potential beneficiaries.

A 10-step decision process was developed from the CORPORATES framework [7] and applied to case studies in Wick, Aberdeen (Scotland), The Humber and The Wash (England). This included co-design of workshops with local coastal partnerships; using GIS layers and SENTINEL satellite imagery to map natural and human features and connect them to ES benefits; co-design of scenarios to test the variability of services and benefits against a range of forces (e.g. climate and land use); and logic chain analysis for distribution of benefits. This informed the Defra / Marine Management Organisation (MMO), UK Government initiative. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/marine\-pioneer\) [S9].

3. References to the research

References (citations vis Scopus)

[1]* Slater AM, Irvine, K, Byg, A, Davies, I, Gubbins, M, Kafas, A, Kenter, J, MacDonald, A, O’Hara Murray, R, Potts, T, Tweddle, J, Wright, K, Scott, BE. (2020) Integrating stakeholder knowledge through modular cooperative participatory processes for marine spatial planning outcomes (CORPORATES). Ecosystem Services. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101126, 2 citations

[2]* Slater, A-M & MacDonald, A 2018, Embedding Law in Participatory Processes Enables an Ecosystem Approach to Marine Decision Making: Analysis of a North Sea Example. In The Ecosystem Approach in Ocean Planning and Governance. Leiden. https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004389984_010

[3]* Burdon, D, Potts, T, Barbone, C, Mander, L. (2017) The matrix revisited: A bird's-eye view of marine ecosystem service provision. Marine Policy, 77: 78-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.12.015, 17 citations

[4] Scott, BE, Irvine, K, Byg, A, Gubbins, M, Kafas, A, Kenter, J, MacDonald, A, O’Hara Murray, R, Potts, T, Slater, AM, Tweddle, J, Wright, K, Davies, I. (2016) The Cooperative Participatory Evaluation of Renewable Technologies on Ecosystem Services (CORPORATES). Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science Vol 7 No 1. http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/02/4961 and Marine Scotland Topic Sheet 16 V1 https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/marine/Publications/TopicSheets/tslist/corporates

[5]* Saunders, J, Potts, T, Jackson, E, Burdon, D, Atkins, JP, Hastings, E, Langmead, OL, Fletcher, S. “Linking Ecosystem Services of Marine Protected Areas to Benefits in Human Wellbeing?’ In: Turner, R.K. and Schaafsma (eds) Coastal Zones Ecosystem Services: Studies in Ecological Economics Volume 9. Springer, 2015. p. 167-191. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17214-9_9, 1, 300 downloads

[6]* Potts, T, et al. (2014) Do marine protected areas deliver ecosystem service functions that support human welfare? Marine Policy 14: 139-148 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.08.011, 149 citations

[7]* D. Burdon, Potts, T., McKinley, E., Lew, S., Shilland, R., Gormley, K., Thomson, S., Forster, R. (2019) Expanding the role of participatory mapping to assess ecosystem service provision in local coastal environments. Ecosystem Services, 39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101009, 19 citations

* = peer reviewed

Grants

Scott, Slater and Potts Cooperative Participatory Evaluation of Renewable Technologies on Ecosystem Services (CORPORATES), NERC (1/07/14-31/03/16) GBP85,552.

Potts Evaluating service flows from marine protected areas: case studies from Scotland, UK and Xiamen, China. Royal Society of Edinburgh (1/04/15-31/01/18) GBP11,680.

Scott. Supergen ORE Hub. EPSRC(1/07/18-30/06/22) GBP9,000,000,000 (GBP394,203.91 to Aberdeen, 50% by 2020)

Potts (Knowledge Exchange and Commercialisation Award, internal pump priming support from University of Aberdeen), (2019) GBP9,000.

4. Details of the impact

Research led by the University of Aberdeen has underpinned the development of three frameworks: the ES matrix, the CORPORATES framework and Participatory Mapping. Collectively they underpin new approaches to policy processes around ecosystem services and the multiple uses of the marine environment [2]. For example, the Head of Planning and Strategy at Marine Scotland stated, “ ….how this (CORPORATES) has been set out has influenced a lot of what we (Marine Scotland) do in these types of approaches. Because it is taking it from that high level and trying to ground-truth it”. A representative from N Power , found the CORPORATES approach valuable: “I found the environment conductive to discussions that I wasn’t necessarily expecting. After 20 years in this business, I had never thought about it this way before”.

The methods have provided evidence, tested new stakeholder engagement and planning techniques and knowledge exchange under the Scottish National Marine Plan (2015) and the UK 25-Year Environmental Strategy [see supporting impact statements]. The research has made an impact in influencing the UK Joint Nature Conservation Committee natural capital assessments and regional marine planning.

Shaping dialogue and informing decision-making between regulators, statutory bodies and marine industries.

The CORPORATES framework has been influential in understanding the ecological, social and economic trade-offs between renewable energy, Marine Protected Areas and commercial fishing [testimonial S1]. CORPORATES has informed fisheries research [1] and marine planning guidance [S2]. The ES matrix and participatory mapping have influenced fishing industry discussions on natural capital and how fishing can support or undermine services [S3]. This was the first foray by SEAFISH (a public body set up to support the seafood industry) into ES and our work in [S3] informed SEAFISH strategy.

CORPORATES has been adopted and published as Scottish Government scientific guidance informing marine planning at a site scale [2]. The approach has also led to an acceptance by regulators, statutory bodies and marine industries that there needs to be a profound shift in the policies regarding the current approach to strategic environmental assessment and environmental impact assessment. The ES matrix has been used to inform regulatory assessment, for instance as a contributing evidence base to support the appraisal of Scottish Marine Protected Areas [S4]. The research has also informed global Marine Protected Area assessments (149 citations of Potts et al 2014) [3] and the UK Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (DBEIS) is funding our work (GBP40,000 investment for a PhD studentship) on a Bayesian modelling approach for sustainable marine ecosystems and offshore energy.

Informing marine planning and natural capital accounting and assessment.

The ES Matrix and related outputs has informed policy and scientific debates about how natural capital accounting can support marine planning and assessment by integrated understanding of the connections between marine social-ecological systems. For example, our research outputs [3,6, above] formed a part of the evidence base for a Joint Nature Conservation Committee assessment on the ecosystem services for marine habitats [S5]. Research outputs contributed to the UK national assessment of ‘good environmental status’ under the EU Marine Strategy Directive. Our work featured in the section ‘evaluation public pressures’ with direct reference to our participatory mapping work [7] in the assessment [S6]. In terms of marine planning programs at the regional scale, our work directly informed the Shetland Islands Marine Region State of the Environment Assessment, with our 2014 and 2017 papers cited upfront as ‘key literature’ [S8]. The Environment Agency has used our literature and data to inform and guide a 2020 assessment of benthic ecosystem services in the Solent [S9].

Embedding place based participatory natural capital and ecosystem service assessments in UK policy and planning.

The ES Matrix and participatory mapping approach were deployed to support the UK Marine Pioneers as test cases [testimonial S10]. In 2019 we led the Suffolk Pioneer to test how natural capital can be delivered in local pilots. The method explored how natural capital concepts could be applied in the Deben Estuary in workshops with policy, industry and community representatives.

The methods [7] were adapted in the Deben to explore scenarios of change on sea level rise and land use. The outputs included an operational manual for participatory mapping [S11] adding to the evidence base for planning directed by the Marine Management Organisation. The work was developed in partnership with Scottish and UK policy agencies (JNCC, SNH, and Marine Scotland), local authorities (Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire) and community organisations (EGCP, Moray Partnership, and Wick) providing a peer reviewed and tested means of delivering a ecosystems approach to natural capital management of the marine environment.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

Corroborating Sources [S]

  1. Marine Scotland and Marine Scotland Science (MS and MSS) Testimonial letter. Deputy Director of Marine Scotland Science and Head of Planning and Strategy, Marine Planning and Policy

  2. Batts, L., Shucksmith, R., Shelmerdine, R.L., Macdonald, P., Mouat, B. Understanding and influencing the marine management and development processes - Best practice guidance for fishers. Report for Fisheries Innovation Scotland, project FIS014:. https://bit.ly/3uvKmji

  3. SEAFISH (2019) Ecosystem services and the UK seafood industry: https://bit.ly/2NE2KpJ [Page 11]

  4. Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base tor Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report https://bit.ly/3aO1sBi [Page 27]

  5. JNCC 2020. Review of the Evidence Supporting the Provision and Resilience of Ecosystem Services of Select Marine Habitats and Species. 10 January 2020. https://bit.ly/3qVr3Oq

  6. UK Marine Online Assessment Tool. 2019. UK Government & Cefas. https://moat.cefas.co.uk/> Contribution located: https://moat.cefas.co.uk/uses-of-the-marine-environment/evaluating-public-perceptions/ (Case study 6).

  7. Hooper, T., and Austen, M. 2020. Application of the natural capital approach to Sustainability Appraisal. Method Summary. October 2020. Report prepared as part of the South West Partnership for the Environment and Economic Prosperity (SWEEP) and the Marine Pioneer programme. [Cited on pg.15 as a detailed marine example].< https://bit.ly/2ZT7dHn>

  8. Shucksmith, RJ (2017) Shetland Islands Marine Region State of the Marine Environment Assessment. NAFC Marine Centre UHI. Report for the Shetland Islands Marine Planning. Partnership. pp 172;https://bit.ly/2ZPSey7;\[pg.4\]

  9. Watson, S.C.L., Watson, G, J., Mellan, J., Sykes., T., Lines, C., Preston, J., (2020) Valuing the Solent Marine Sites Habitats and Species: A Natural Capital Study of Benthic Ecosystem Services and how they Contribute to Water Quality Regulation. Environment Agency R&D Technical Report ENV600. https://bit.ly/3qWlAXu [Page. 22 and 23. Direct data used in assessment].

  10. Marine Management Organisation (MMO) Testimonial letter. Head of Marine Evidence.

  11. Burdon D, Potts T (2020) Participatory mapping of natural capital and benefits: method guidance document. Daryl Burdon Ltd, Willerby, UK, report to Suffolk Marine Pioneer, 34pp, (Report No. DB LTD 007/2019c): https://bit.ly/3stfaQ7

Submitting institution
University of Aberdeen
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Research led by Dr Comte, School of Geosciences has highlighted the risks surrounding unsustainable use of groundwater resources in Africa and has directly informed governance and planning in Sub-Saharan Africa. This includes a UN development programme led by the Comoros government worth USD60,800,000 with estimated 450,000 direct beneficiaries leading and increased infrastructure for water monitoring. Comte’s research findings have triggered a review of groundwater data and model outputs relating to risk of depletion and saline intrusion by the Kenyan national water authority (WRA), which has helped shape training by the Regional Centre on Groundwater Resources Education Training and Research in Africa (RCGW) and crucially, raised awareness regarding the risk surrounding salinisation of aquifers to both policymakers and public.

2. Underpinning research

In Sub-Saharan Africa, groundwater resources are undergoing rapid and unprecedented development due to increasing global population growth rates, leading to increased water demand. Groundwater is an important resource due to its abundance and resilience to increasing climate variability compared to surface water. However, poor knowledge and management of an aquifer’s local and regional capacity to support large-scale community development often leads to irreversible deterioration by over-abstraction (unsustainable extraction relative to natural recharge from rainfall); particularly in coastal regions, where this can cause salinisation of the aquifers as well as land subsidence.

Due to poorly maintained government-managed monitoring infrastructure (borehole observation networks), there is limited understanding of groundwater response to abstraction and climate variability. This means that use of groundwater through private and community boreholes is either unknown or unregulated despite efforts by the governments to register all groundwater users. This has resulted in significant underestimation of groundwater abstraction, leading to sinking water tables and saltwater intrusion. Intergovernmental agencies such as the Water Resources Agency (‘WRA’, was WRMA) whilst mandated to regulate the management and use of water resources faces a challenging task given the lack of information on groundwater functioning.

Dr Comte, a hydrologist specialising in the sustainable development and management of groundwater resources, has led research focussing on the impact of rapidly increasing groundwater exploitation on reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa. Since 2015, Comte has built on a body of work demonstrating that government-managed groundwater monitoring networks are inadequate and insufficient to provide meaningful monitoring of the spatial-temporal evolution of the resources (undertaken before he joined the University of Aberdeen). From 2015-18 Comte has led investigations on the impact of rapidly increasing groundwater exploitation on groundwater reserves, with a focus on depletion and saltwater intrusion in Kenya [1-2], the spatial characterisation of aquifer structures and seawater intrusion in coastal areas, including the impact assessments of volcanic heterogeneity on coastal groundwater salinity through numerical groundwater modelling [3].

Comte’s work, presented at the Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association WIOMSA in South Africa in 2015 [1] showed that human activities (e.g. increasing groundwater development) are more detrimental effect to groundwater resources (depletion and salinisation) than climate change (recharge variability) [2]. He also showed that government-managed groundwater monitoring networks are inadequate and insufficient to provide meaningful monitoring of the spatial-temporal evolution of the resources [2]. In recognition of the value of the research, the WRA part-funded a PhD studentship, enabling secondment of a WRA hydrologist to Comte’s team at the University in order to facilitate a source of in-house expertise in Nairobi in groundwater monitoring. The research [3-5], designed and led by Comte, has enabled the development of a strong working relationship with the WRA.

Comte’s field research in Eastern Africa (2016 onwards), funded by the Royal Geographical Society has expanded these initial findings [P1] to develop and embed a new conceptual understanding of the response of groundwater resources to climate change and human activities in Nairobi aquifers, relevant to the socio-economic development of Kenya and the wider East Africa region [3]. As part of this project, WRA offices (Nairobi and Kiambu) supplied borehole completion reports and abstraction records. Comte and Oiro then used geophysical surveys and in-situ groundwater measurements along with analysis of available long-term climate and borehole monitoring data in order to assess the water quality of two strategic Kenyan aquifers (the coast and Nairobi), used by over 7,000,000 people [5].

The research highlighted the need to map the extent of seawater intrusion and to understand key driving forces - quality and water levels observed from monitoring wells showed the negative impact of groundwater over-exploitation in both the long and short term. The water quality was found to deteriorate over time suggesting that abstraction acts as a primary driver to saltwater intrusion. [3, 4]. [P1] also examined the use of groundwater through private boreholes in the region. Using climatic trend analysis from seven meteorological stations and land-use change mapping (EarthExplorer website), Comte and Oiro found that the practice and utilisation of private boreholes is incompletely regulated despite current effort by the governments to register all groundwater users, resulting in significant underestimation of groundwater abstraction. Findings also showed that in coastal areas, borehole construction was not adapted to the specific vulnerability of wells to saltwater intrusion, with the narrow, deeper boreholes, which are favoured by drillers more vulnerable to saline intrusion than shallow, large diameter wells. [5].

In 2018, Comte was mandated by the consultancy group AURECON to implement a World Bank-funded, Kenya-wide water resources development project to provide hydrogeological technical expertise. Expertise specifically involves building capacity of the Kenyan Water Authority groundwater staff, through the approach of ‘training-of-trainers’, in numerical groundwater model application, including model formulation, testing and uptake of a range of long-term (100-years) sustainable groundwater management scenarios for use to policy making [P4].

In 2017, as a result of these findings, Comte was contacted by scientists in Botswana who were keen to apply his findings to the Limpopo river basin (LRB), an arid, water-stressed basin with high susceptibility to floods. The project titled ‘Extreme rainfall and floods in arid regions (Botswana): replenishment or contamination of water resources?’ [P2] provided the groundwork to develop preparedness and enhance community resilience to flood and drought conditions by building understanding amongst stakeholders of multiscale hydrological processes underlying droughts and floods and combine this with water resource planning. The project aims to forge stronger links between scientists and water management stakeholders including the Water Research Commission (WRC) and Ministry of Public Works and Housing in order to aid local and regional authorities by improving hydrological monitoring networks and strengthening communication between local and national levels of governance. This research has now been expanded under the flagship ‘Connect4WR’ project, within the DFID/FCDO’s SHEAR programme [P3].

3. References to the research

Key references (citations via Scopus)

[1] Comte J-C, et al (2015). Physical and societal challenges in groundwater security in coastal East Africa: case studies in the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania (conference presentation), 9th WIOMSA Scientific Symposium – Wild Coast Sun, South Africa, 26 – 31 October 2015

[2] Comte, J.C et al 2016. Challenges in groundwater resource management in coastal aquifers of East Africa: Investigations and lessons learnt in the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 5, pp.179-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.065, 37 citations

[3] Oiro, S., Comte, J-C, Soulsby, C. & Walraevens, K. (2018). Using stable water isotopes to identify spatial-temporal controls on groundwater recharge in two contrasting East African aquifer systems. Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 63, no. 6, pp. 862-877. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1459625, 16 citations

[4] Oiro, S . & Comte, J-C (2019). Drivers, patterns and velocity of saltwater intrusion in a stressed aquifer of the East African coast: joint analysis of groundwater and geophysical data in Southern Kenya. Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol. 149, pp. 334-347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2018.08.016, 5 citations

[5] Oiro, S., Comte, J.C., Soulsby, C., MacDonald, A. and Mwakamba, C., 2020. Depletion of groundwater resources under rapid urbanisation in Africa: recent and future trends in the Nairobi Aquifer System, Kenya. Hydrogeology Journal, 28(8), pp.2635-2656. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02236-5, 1 citation

Sources of funding awarded to Dr Comte as Principal Investigator:

[P1] Royal Geographical Society (with IBG) Environment and Sustainability Research Grant: East African groundwater resources under climatic and human pressure, 2016-2017 (GBP10,000)

[P2] NERC Urgency Grant: Extreme rainfall and floods in arid regions (Botswana): replenishment or contamination of water resources? 2017-2018 (GBP52,064)

[P3] NERC/DFID Research Grant - SHEAR Programme: Connect4 water resilience: connecting water resources, communities, drought and flood hazards, and governance across 4 countries in the Limpopo basin, 2018-2020 (GBP252,352)

[P4] AURECON: Groundwater numerical model, 10/2018-09/2019 (GBP23,585)

4. Details of the impact

Comte’s research findings have drawn attention to key issues relating to the unsustainability of increasing water demand in Eastern Africa, such as poor monitoring of resources and extensive drilling and pumping rates [3-5]. By engaging with and training water management authorities, policy makers and communities, Comte’s research has underpinned new guidelines for water managers, supported decision-making and introduced best practice for local authorities and raised awareness of local communities to the risk of saline intrusion to water quality.

**Contributing to global guidelines for water managers **

In 2016, Comte reported that natural saline intrusion and governance failures were key drivers affecting water quality in the region [1], these findings have been cited as a guideline within the ‘Groundwater Management in coastal zones’, a handbook (2018) released by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) [S1]. Germany is supporting efforts of partner countries to balance their water budgets, specifically projects that involve continuous monitoring of water cycle and quality. The handbook outlines the principles of good governance and acts as a guide for water managers in coastal regions globally; Comte’s research has been cited as a case study to highlight observed problems in coastal groundwater governance specific to East Africa [S1].

Guiding best practice in UN-mediated consultancy

In regions like Comoros where the water table is quite deep (100-200m), a borehole equipped and tested is predicted to cost between GBP5000 and GBP10000. If boreholes fail due to salinisation this means losing tens up to a few hundreds of thousand GBP on borehole cost alone. In order to strengthen water management capabilities relating to water treatment, the Comoros government drew on Comte’s research [1] as part of the Terms of Reference of a tender published in 2016 of a major 8-year, USD60,800,000 development project implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) under the Green Climate Fund [S2i]. As part of this tender, Comte’s research was used to inform the initial feasibility study, with figures from [1] used to illustrate main groundwater salinities of surveyed wells, correlations between borehole/well salinity (Fig 7), geology and distance to coast (Fig 9), pumping schedules for dry and wet seasons (Fig 10) [S2ii].The project, governed by the Comoros Ministry of Energy, Agriculture, Fisheries, Environment, Country Planning and Urbanism (MEAPEATU) was approved in 2018 and is estimated to have 450,000 direct beneficiaries [S2iii]. Comte’s research findings [1] were used to focus the project and provided guidance on the vulnerability of sites to saltwater intrusion thereby enabling the Comoros government to make an informed decision regarding selection of the appropriate implementing organisation (e.g. UNDP) with the highest standards for risk-mitigation, thus ensuring long-term cost savings (lower borehole failure rate) and reduced likelihood of salinisation.

Regional governance, policy and infrastructure

In Kenya, Comte’s research findings [3] have been incorporated into national-scale policy guidelines and have underpinned a terms of reference for national groundwater development project tenders, relating to demand and supply of fresh water and the construction of boreholes by the WRA [S3]. Comte’s research [1] has also been cited in the Government of Kenya (2017) ‘State of the Coast Report II: Enhancing Integrated Management of Coastal and Marine Resources in Kenya, release by the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), Nairobi [S4], under section 6.2.2 in order to highlight the imbalance between demand for piped water and supply in Kilifi County.

Comte’s research [1, 3] is being acted upon at the national level by the WRA of Kenya to inform the groundwater, water quality and permitting sections of the WRA national office [S5i]. The WRA are using Comte’s research findings including new groundwater quality data and model outputs relating to risk of depletion and saline intrusion [2,3,4] to (1) undertake appraisal of existing groundwater monitoring data and redesign their plans and sites for the development of future groundwater monitoring infrastructure, such as observation boreholes [S5ii], (2) improve abstraction metering and water allocation to users [S5ii] and (3) enforce effluent discharge regulations for wetlands [S5ii] in the Nairobi/Rift Valley and South Coast regions. The WRA Technical Coordination Manager confirmed that:

Dr Comte’s research work is being used to guide ongoing drilling of groundwater monitoring networks along the south coast costing a total amount of Kenya Shillings 12, 686,920.00 (USD 126,896.2).’ [S5iii]

Introducing guidelines and training for water authorities

In the Nairobi region, Comte’s expertise and his research findings identifying wetlands as areas of preferential groundwater recharge [2] have heavily informed the WRA’s legal office in their development of a new policy to regulate private urban development, enforce new standards for protection of these wetland areas, and provide evidence of ongoing litigations between the WRA and private developers [S6]. Comte’s extensive in-field expertise, has led to the WRA’s groundwater section seeking his advice on replacement of field instruments best suited for groundwater exploration in Kenya, as well as training for maintenance thereby informing their approach [S6]. Regionally, groundwater salinity maps and models resulting from the research [3] are being used by the WRA’s south coast (Mombasa) office to support community water development [S6]. The WRA and are using the salinity maps from modelling to plan water management in accordance with susceptibility to saltwater intrusion as highlighted by the maps to improve models to run management scenarios and salinity modelling [S5, S7].

In 2015-2018 the WRA provided financial support to build capacity for in-house skill development and expertise building in groundwater resources assessment, modelling and management. Comte contributed by providing direct staff training through supervision of the PhD of Samson Oiro, on secondment from WRA’s groundwater section. This secondment has been integral to the application of numerical models for management scenario testing, in order to better manage pressures on groundwater resources in Kenya [S5iii]. Comte in association with AURECON [P4] has worked with the WRA to strengthen its ‘in-house’ capacity in terms of skills and infrastructure including development of a Groundwater and Management Guideline and a National Aquifer map based on geology and surface water catchments [S6]. Through the project, recommendations have been released to support efforts to strengthen water resource management and planning including deployment of systematic monitoring of active boreholes, particularly for users with high water consumption and use of smart water meters in cases of severe depletion [S6].

The training approach, led by Comte, Oiro and the WRA has been praised and deemed exemplary for capacity building by the Regional Centre on Groundwater Resources Education Training and Research in Africa (RCGW) one of the key inter-governmental organisations. Director General of RCGW, stated that:

(Comte and Oiro) are providing key reference materials for policy makers currently used to assist the Water Resources Authority in designing their new groundwater management plans. In addition, the current groundwater modelling training project led by Prof Comte for the Water Resources Authority, involving WRA staff placements and training of trainers is exemplary for efficient and long-term capacity building of East African water decision makers [S7].

Raising awareness in communities

Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa (particularly in rural areas) often rely on unregulated groundwater access points, and often lack knowledge of management and safeguarding of groundwater resources, and require training. In Kenya, Comte’s research findings [2, 3] supported the introduction of a new collaboration between the WRA and non-governmental organisation, CORDIO, a Kenyan non-profit research institution working at the community level for environmental sustainability [P3]. Although CORDIO initially focused on marine and coastal environments, Comte’s findings relating to the effects of inland saltwater intrusion has since 2017 encouraged CORDI to focus efforts on introducing a consultative approach to practice with communities and WRA policy-makers [S8i]. In addition, during engagement with communities in coastal Kenya [P1], Comte and Oiro engaged with private water well owners, local water user representatives, schools and mosques in order to provide technical advice for safe groundwater practices [S8ii].

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[S1] Groundwater Management in coastal zones’ handbook (p53, 55), https://bit.ly/3cPsYhq

[S2 (group)] (i) Funding Proposal FPO94: Ensuring climate resilient water supplies in the Comoros Islands; (ii) FPO94 Annex II – Feasibility Study; (iii) Green Climate Fund project FPO94 page: https://www.greenclimate.fund/project/fp094

[S3] WRA (July 2020) Water Allocation Plan, Nairobi Aquifer Suite

[S4] State of the Coast Report II: Enhancing Integrated Management of Coastal and Marine Resources in Kenya. National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), 2017

[S5 (group)] (i) Government of Kenya, Ministry of Water and Sanitation, (ii) National Groundwater quality report (2017); (iii) Testimonial statement from the Technical Coordination Manager of the WRA

[S6] Groundwater Modelling Reports 1 and 2, Implementation Support Consultant / AURECON / World Bank (confidential, available on request)

[S7] Testimonial from the Regional Centre on Groundwater Resources Education Training and Research in Africa (RCGW)

[S8 (group)] (i) CORDIO data; (ii) photos taken during fieldwork

Submitting institution
University of Aberdeen
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Climate change, caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is one of humanity’s greatest environmental challenges. Research led by the University of Aberdeen has developed a range of decision support tools for industry, land managers and policy makers utilizing the best scientific understanding to enable real-world reduction in GHG emissions. The “Cool Farm Tool” has been adopted by an alliance of 82 of the world’s largest agri-food businesses and has been used for over 47,000 assessments in 118 countries. It has delivered demonstrable and very significant reductions in GHG emissions from their food production chains. The Windfarm Carbon Calculator has been adopted by the Scottish Government for all windfarm-planning applications of over 50 MW and is used by industry, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and government to assess potential impacts.

2. Underpinning research

Greenhouse gases are created by a number of activities, especially food production and power generation, and are the main driver of climate change.

The United Nations has estimated that by 2050 the world will need to produce 70% more food to support a global population of 9,000,000,000; up to a third of all GHGs come from the global food system. The migration of power generation to sustainable technologies, such as wind turbines, is reducing the level of GHGs produced. However, the construction of windfarms, especially if they are built on carbon rich peatlands, can lead to the release of GHGs. Minimizing such emissions delivers the maximum positive environmental benefits. Models and tools developed by the University of Aberdeen have provided powerful methods to estimate greenhouse gas emissions, which have enabled mitigation actions across a number of industries.

The research presented in this case study was led by University of Aberdeen researchers Pete Smith (Professor of Soils & Global Change 2001–present) and Jo Smith (Professor in Soil Organic Matter and Nutrient Modelling 2001–present). Other key researchers were Jon Hillier (Reader in Biological Sciences 2006–2018), Euan Phimister (Chair in Economics 1997–present) and Paul Hallett (Professor of Biological Sciences 2008–present). The team collaborated with colleagues at the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) research centres (Claire Stirling, Tek Sapkota, Wolde Bori, Bedru Balana) and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Alan Dangour and colleagues). Other partners were Forest Research (Mike Perks), the James Hutton Institute (Jagadeesh Yeluripati and colleagues), The Sustainable Food Lab (Daniella Malin) and industry, Cool Farm Alliance (Rich Heathcote) and Yara, a leading agrochemical company (Frank Brentrup).

The tools presented in this case study were included in the REF2014 (Windfarm Carbon Calculator and Cool Farm Tool). Since that time the tools have been substantially developed further and been deployed more widely, as such, additional impacts have been achieved.

The tools are based on theoretical models of biogeochemical processes and greenhouse gas emissions, described in over 300 journal publications by the team since the REF2014 [1]. After the models were evaluated with independent data and demonstrated to be robust, the team worked with industry partners (such as the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) for windfarms and the Cool Farm Alliance for the Cool Farm Tool) to translate the complex models into tools that could accept readily obtainable, real-world inputs from users in industry.

Research into greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture [3] led to the development of the Cool Farm Tool (2008) in association with Unilever. It used simplified relationships between agricultural management practices (e.g. fertilization, tillage, irrigation, etc.) and emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Since 2013 the Cool Farm Tool has been refined to extend its applicability to perennial crops (e.g. apples, figs and olives) [4]. A water module [5] has now been added that estimates the water footprint of a crop in addition to its greenhouse gas emissions.

The Windfarm Calculator estimates the carbon payback time for a windfarm – the time required for net carbon losses associated with building the windfarm to be balanced by carbon savings through clean energy. Using information such as the depth of peat on which the windfarm would be built and the extent of drainage around the infrastructure, the Calculator (2008) enables planners to avoid developments on sensitive sites, while permitting developments on those where a windfarm does not result in degradation of sensitive soils.

A major evolution of the Windfarm Calculator was the introduction of further modelling (2018) to understand the impact of repowering on carbon emissions; repowering is the process of replacing old wind turbines with new technology. Whilst wind farms exist to generate electricity with minimal carbon (C) footprint, an assessment of repowering has to take into account key processes that affect this such as embedded C (as CO2 emissions) used in the construction of the repowered wind farm, and any disturbance to the environment that can reduce its capacity to sequester Carbon, including the effectiveness of restoration at the end-of-life [2]. This project, managed by ‘Construction Scotland Innovation Centre’ and led by the Universities of Glasgow and Aberdeen, fostered collaboration between the SEPA, Engineering company, ARUP Group and Scottish and Southern Energy plc (SSE) and ensured the tool would be appropriate to influence the development of the next generation of windfarms.

3. References to the research

References (citations via Scopus)

[1] Smith, J.U., Yeluripati, J., Smith, P. and Nayak, D.R. 2020. Potential yield challenges to scale-up of Zero Budget Natural Farming. Nature Sustainability 3, 247–252, doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0469-x, 1 citation.

[2] Waldron, S., Smith, J., Taylor, K., McGinnes, C., Roberts, N. and McCallum, D., 2018. Repowering onshore wind farms: A technical and environmental exploration of foundation reuse. Carbon Landscape and Drainage Knowledge Exchange Network-Led Report; Construction Scotland Innovation Centre: Glasgow, UK, doi: 10.17605/OSF.IO/SCZDE, 1 citation.

[3] Smith, P., Martino, D., Cai, Z., Gwary, D., Janzen, H., Kumar, P., McCarl, B., Ogle, S., O'Mara, F., Rice, C. and Scholes, B., 2008. Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 363(1492), pp.789-813, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.2184, 2371 citations.

[4] Ledo, A., Hastings, A., Heathcote, R., Smith, P. and Hillier. J. 2018. Perennial-GHG: a new generic allometric model to estimate biomass accumulation and greenhouse gas emissions in perennial food and bioenergy crops. Environmental Modelling and Software 102, 292–305. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.12.005, 7 citations.

[5] Kayatz, B., Harris, F., Hillier, J., Adhya, T., Dalin, C., Nayak, D., Green, R.F., Smith, P. and Dangour, A.D., 2019. “More crop per drop”: Exploring India's cereal water use since 2005. Science of the total environment, 673, pp.207-217. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.304, 12 citations.

Grants

Research projects initiated since 2014 totalling greater than GBP8,500,000, funded by UKRI (NERC, BBSRC, EPSRC), EU, Wellcome Trust, Industry (Shell, Unilever), KR Foundation, Scottish Government, Defra and UKERC, have contributed to the science underpinning these Decision Support Tools.

4. Details of the impact

The impact of Aberdeen research has benefited multinational food companies and farmers in developed and developing countries. It has influenced Scottish Government policy and has directly enabled measurable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, informing best practice for future wind turbine installations.

The impact can be summarized under three headings:

1.Improvement in the environmental performance of agri-food companies

2.Influencing agricultural practice in low- to middle-income countries

3.Reduction in GHG emissions associated with windfarms

Improvement in the environmental performance of agri-food companies

The Cool Farm Tool ( https://coolfarmtool.org/) [S1i] was developed in partnership with Unilever, which provided validation data from field trials. By 2013 the company had partnered with 17 industry competitors and created the Cool Farm Alliance in order to enable interested agri-food companies to use the tool to plan their GHG reduction strategies. Project data is confidential to each individual company, but all members can see anonymized aggregate data. Since REF2014, Cool Farm Alliance membership has further grown to 82 companies. There are 10,500 registered users and the tool has been used in 118 different countries to make 47,000 assessments. The success and utility of the tool meant that in 2014 ownership was transferred from UoA to the Cool Farm Alliance, which now administers it and implements updates from the research team [S1ii].

Members of the Alliance include Unilever, PepsiCo, McDonald’s, M&S, McCain, Mars, Kellogg’s, Heineken, Branston, Danone, Tesco, Heinz and Costco [S2i]. The companies use the tool to calculate the impact of their operations on the environment and its trade-off with their productivity. The tool revolutionized the sector’s capacity for empirically based behaviour change, practice and decision-making and has enabled substantial GHG reductions in food supply chains. These have had a significant, quantified impact on their GHG emissions, for example:

  • Unilever showed a reduction of 25% in GHG emissions from its tomato farms. The farms represent 80% of global production of field-grown tomatoes and the top five producing countries (US, China, Italy, Spain, Turkey). They now plan to extend this type of analysis to other crops such as onions, garlic, carrots and strawberries [S2ii].

  • Danone showed an average reduction in emissions of 12% within one year of starting to use the tool in 13 countries and has introduced a “carbon-adjusted” recurring earnings per share (EPS) evolution that takes into account an estimated financial cost for the absolute GHG emissions on its entire value chain [S2ii].

  • Between 2010 and 2015 ADAS and PepsiCo have been working alongside Walkers Crisps to embed the tool in a project to reduce carbon emissions and water use and have achieved an average reduction of 50% in five years across their UK potato farms [S2ii]. These and many similar examples can be found in [S3i].

The Agricultural Sustainability Manager (Europe) at PepsiCo appreciated that the power of the Cool Farm Tool is that it gives the end user the capacity to properly understand the consequences of individual strategies, saying, “I like the Cool Farm Tool because it's not a black box. With other tools you… just pay for the study and are delivered the results. This is a better way of engaging.” [S3i].

The development of the water module (2019) of the Cool Farm Tool has enabled Solidaridad (an international development agency), who have worked with 7,361 farmers in Mexico, Columbia and Peru, to achieve yield improvements of 21% alongside a reduction in emissions of nearly 28,000 tonne of CO2 eq [S3ii].

Influencing agricultural practice in low- to middle-income countries

The Tool was used in over 118 countries between 2013 and 2020. WWF-India (World Wide Fund for Nature – India) produced a report in collaboration with Marks & Spencer and used the Tool to assess the GHG emissions generated by cotton cultivation in Warangal, India, on a pilot scale [S4i]. GHG emissions from farms using traditional cultivation methods were compared with those using better management practices (BMPs). Traditional cultivation was shown to use almost double the amount of fertiliser compared to BMPs. It exceeded the levels recommended by the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, India, and produced almost twice the amount of GHG emissions without improving yield. WWF-India now works with farmers in the Warangal district to promote BMPs in cotton production in order to mitigate environmental impact, as reported by Marks & Spencer [S4i, ii].

Reduction in GHG emissions associated with windfarms

The Carbon Calculator for Windfarms on Scottish Peatlands (Windfarm Calculator) (2008 onwards) [2] was originally developed for the Scottish Government. SEPA assumed ownership of the Calculator in 2013 [S5i] and now handle all queries and updates to the tool (2017) and the University of Aberdeen team continue to provide technical updates [S5ii].

Scottish Government policy was changed in 2017 and published in August 2018, when SEPA made use of the tool compulsory for all planning applications under section 36 – Energy infrastructure: Energy consents - gov.scot ( https://www.gov.scot/publications/energy-consents-application-procedure-and-publicity-requirements/) for companies attempting to gain energy consents for new onshore windfarms of greater than 50 MW [S6]. As per this policy, developers are now required to calculate potential carbon losses and savings from wind farms on Scottish peatlands. By developing an online Carbon Calculator available at https://informatics.sepa.org.uk/CarbonCalculator/index.jsp, the University of Aberdeen has facilitated this process and informing best practice for future windfarm developments. In 2016, the tool was adapted into a web-based version (which includes the enhancements around forestry, made available by the Scottish Government, the associated factsheet states “ The improved ease of use [of the carbon calculator] will reduce the burden on developers as a consequence of the increased user-friendliness and the more sophisticated entry checking and guidance. The expectation is that this will reduce the number of resubmissions. The improved quality of submissions will reduce the validation work required. It will allow developers to submit carbon assessments and conduct initial carbon assessment screening tests on their proposed developments online in a self-service manner. It will allow an aggregated picture to be made of assessments (initial applications and re-applications) across Scotland” [S7].

There have been 10 sites (totalling 1247 MW of the 2039 MW (61%) constructed or applied for since 2016 [S8], each of which had to be justified using the tool. This means the Windfarm Calculator has helped retain the huge stock of carbon held in Scottish soils by avoiding the construction of new windfarms on deep peats and forcing a shift in the siting of windfarms to soils lower in carbon. By thus preserving intact peatlands, this provides a two-way reduction in net GHG emissions.

Developments to the Windfarm Calculator, were facilitated through a joint consultancy project with Forest Research (part of DEFRA), and Glasgow University [2] (2018) and highlighted the potential for “repowering” end-of-life windfarms (by replacing old turbines with new technology) [2, see p27]. The results were used to update technical guidance released by the Scottish Government [S10] and were included in a policy statement produced by the Scottish Government in 2017 on repowering [S9].

After it was published, SSE and Scottish Power assessed the options presented by the report and concluded that the re-engineering cost per turbine foundation would be between two and three times higher than a new foundation for the target turbine type. This translates into a multi-million pound cost-avoidance opportunity for a typical >50 MW windfarm and represents an opportunity to resite windfarms on mineral soils and avoid further degradation of peatlands [2]. In May 2020, Scottish Power acquired a 165 MW major new onshore wind project, including the repowering of Scotland’s very first commercial windfarm, Hagshaw Hill. It is expected that the overall project could create 600 peak jobs and 280 long-term jobs. Stated in the press release, ‘ Hagshaw Hill Repowering Ltd has Section 36 planning consent for up to 14 turbines with max tip height of 200m, a 20 MW battery storage facility and a grid connection already secured.’ [S11]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[S1 (group)] (i) Link to Cool Farm tool; (ii) letter from General Manager, Cool Farm Alliance, outlines the vital role of the tool for that organization and its members.

[S2 (group)] (i) List of Alliance members; (ii) specific examples of members using the tool include Unilever, Danone and PepsiCo

[S3 (group)] (i) Companies using the tool: article from 'The Guardian' on the Cool Farm Tool – a better way of engaging with farmers May 2014; (ii) use of tool by Solidaridad ( https://coolfarmtool.org/2016/10/smart-farmers-opt-for-the-power-of-data-with-the-cool-farm-tool/)

[S4 (group)] (i) M&S WWF-India Cotton Carbon Emission report, 2013 ( https://bit.ly/381d8yT); linked WWF case study (2014), (ii) corroborates M&S investment in Cool Farm Tool ( https://bit.ly/3q8J22z)

[S5 (group)] (i) Land Use Planning System SEPA Guidance Note 4: Planning guidance on on-shore windfarm developments. Section 4.11 quotes the Carbon Calculator as the official SEPA tool ( https://bit.ly/3cTPO7x); (ii) SEPA presentation slides (2014), ‘Renewable development on peatlands: practical considerations in assessing balance of carbon losses and savings’ provides a timeline of SEPA validation of the tool and updates

[S6] Scottish Government website. Section 36: Energy Infrastructure: Energy Consents ( https://www.gov.scot/policies/energy-infrastructure/energy-consents/)

[S7] Scottish Government site with factsheet for the Carbon Calculator for windfarms on Scottish peatlands – used for windfarm planning applications by industry and for granting consent by Scottish Government and Local Authorities, ( https://www.gov.scot/publications/carbon-calculator-for-wind-farms-on-scottish-peatlands-factsheet/)

[S8] Renewables Schemes on the Forestry and Land Scotland National Forests and Land. Shows the 10 over 50 MW sites that were required to use the windfarm tool by regulations in Scotland ( https://bit.ly/3tG5O48)

[S9] Key Scottish Government statement on repowering windfarms ( https://www.gov.scot/publications/onshore-wind-policy-statement/pages/3/, p. 23-24)

[S10] Calculating potential carbon losses and savings from wind farms on Scottish peatlands Technical Note – Version 2.10.0. Link: https://bit.ly/304txOr

[S11] Scottish Power press release, May 2020 outlines acquisition of 165 MW onshore wind project including repowering of Hagshaw Hill and cites Section 36, Energy Infrastructure: Energy Consents

Submitting institution
University of Aberdeen
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Seismic data are used globally by energy companies, and other subsurface industries, to explore for, develop and produce hydrocarbons, mine resources and store waste. These activities are costly and interpretation of seismic data underpins the decision-making processes. Aberdeen’s Interpretation Uncertainty Group’s research has enabled companies to generate improved interpretations of seismic datasets. Improved assessment of uncertainties ultimately leads to considerable cost-saving and mitigation against harmful environmental and economic outcomes.

The companies have utilised the research to run training course for employees, as do recognised training consultants, leading to refined geological interpretation workflows and enhanced decision-making regarding subsurface uncertainties.

2. Underpinning research

Safe and economically viable management of the subsurface requires detailed knowledge of the geology. Seismic images, generated by recording sound waves that reflect-off geological boundaries underground, provide a fundamental source for generation of subsurface knowledge. The acquisition and processing of seismic data is time-consuming and costly (c. Total spent USD163,000,000 acquiring wide-angle 3D seismic data for a single block, offshore Angola in 2013/14Footnote:

https://www.ep.total.com/en/expertise/exploration/subsalt\-imaging\-optimized\-design\-wats\-acquisition\-method ), with exploratory wells (used to aid interpretation of seismic imagery) also costing upwards of USD 30,000,000 million per offshore well. Shell, one of the largest hydrocarbon producers in the world, spent approximately USD13,000,000,000 on exploration between 2015 and 2019. Despite the cost of acquisition, seismic images are used extensively by both extractive (e.g. hydrocarbons, water, minerals) and subsurface storage (e.g. CO2 and radioactive material) industries as a key source of geological information.

Aberdeen’s Interpretation Uncertainty Group (led by Clare Bond) have established a global reputation for applied research into the uncertainties associated with interpretation of seismic images. Outputs generated by the Interpretation Uncertainty Group include joint/academic industry papers [1, 3, 4], invited webinars and seminars [S4], input into industry continued professional development (CPD) training courses [S1, S2] and knowledge exchange sessions [S6]. These research outputs have underpinned key outcomes for industry and policy makers in both energy and underground waste storage industries, reflected by uptake of the research recommendations for workflows and training by global energy companies including Schlumberger, BP, Shell, Equinor and Wintershall Dea.

Research by the Interpretation Uncertainty Group aims to mitigate against the negative outcomes brought about by interpretational uncertainty across a range of subsurface industry sectors (e.g. nuclear waste disposal, hydrocarbon extraction, CO2 storage), which is an area of great expense to the industry. Bond has led research on interpretational uncertainty internationally, integrating techniques and theories derived in the social, psychological and statistical sciences with Earth science. In doing so, she has developed a new interdisciplinary approach to evaluating subsurface interpretation. Since joining Aberdeen in 2010, Bond has built a group working on interpretational uncertainty of subsurface data that engages effectively with industry and policy stakeholders. Research methods include testing approaches of multiple cohorts to interpretation of seismic data [1, 2], assessing differences in approach and techniques [1, 2, 3, 4], and testing the impact of creative space on interpretation and reasoning [1, 5, 6].

Key Research findings:

Collaborative research and published outputs by the Interpretation Uncertainty Group at the University of Aberdeen has demonstrated that:

  • Several factors may influence interpretation outcome. These include interpreter biases and heuristics [2, 6], background, education and training experience [3, 5, 6]

  • Data quality impacts interpretation uncertainty and the prediction of features such as faults in the subsurface [1, 4].

  • Explicit use of reasoning techniques is critical in ensuring a geologically robust interpretation [5]. Recommended strategies include consideration of multiple scenarios, sketching geological diagrams and considering geological evolution and setting [1, 2, 4, 5, 6].

  • Work with industry demonstrates the impact on reservoir volumetric predictions as a consequence of interpretational uncertainty and consequently the range in economic risk [3, 4].

3. References to the research

References (citations via Scopus):

  1. Alcalde, J., Bond, C.E., Johnson, G., Ellis, J.F. and Butler, R.W., 2017. Impact of seismic image quality on fault interpretation uncertainty. GSA Today, doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/GSATG282A.1, 13 citations.

  2. Macrae, E.J., Bond, C.E., Shipton, Z.K. and Lunn, R.J., 2016. Increasing the quality of seismic interpretation. Interpretation4(3), pp. 395-402, doi: https://doi.org/10.1190/INT\-2015\-0218.1, 14 citations.

  3. Richards, F.L., Richardson, N.J., Bond, C.E. and Cowgill, M., 2015. Interpretational variability of structural traps: implications for exploration risk and volume uncertainty. Geological Society, London, Special Publications421, pp. 7-27, doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/SP421.13, 14 citations

  4. Bond, C.E., Johnson, G. and Ellis, J.F., 2015. Structural model creation: the impact of data type and creative space on geological reasoning and interpretation. Geological Society, London, Special Publications421 (1), pp. 83-97, doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/SP421.4, 19 citations.

  5. Torvela, T. and Bond, C.E., 2011. Do experts use idealised structural models? Insights from a deepwater fold–thrust belt. Journal of Structural Geology33(1), pp. 51-58, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2010.10.002, 19 citations.

  6. Bond, C.E., Philo, C. and Shipton, Z.K., 2011. When There isn't a Right Answer: Interpretation and reasoning, key skills for twenty‐first century geoscience. International Journal of Science Education33(5), pp. 629-652, doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09500691003660364, 53 citations.

Grants:

  1. 2018-2019. Geocognition - Visualising and Interpreting Sub-Surface Image Data. Royal Society of Edinburgh, research sabbatical grant (GBP62,691).

  2. 2018-2019. Research contract with Nagra (Swiss Nuclear Waste Body) on structural interpretation uncertainty ( GBP11,000)

  3. 2017-2021. Evaluating consistency in complex structural models in areas of high interpretation uncertainty. Total (GBP108,000).

  4. 2014-2015. Improving Interpretation Outcomes: quantifying biases and designing workflows for better seismic interpretation. NERC - NE/M007251/1 ( GBP93,215).

  5. 2013-2017. Uncertainty in expert interpretation of geological cross-sections and its propagation into 3D geological framework models. BGS-BUFI NERC algorithm and University of Aberdeen College of Physical Sciences, PhD studentship (GBP73,000)

  6. 2011-2013. Learning from experts - the interpretation of seismic datasets. Scottish Higher Education Academy (GBP10,705)

4. Details of the impact

Unsuccessful exploration based on seismic interpretation can cost a energy company USD5,000,000 to USD20,000,000 per exploration site, this added to the cost of acquisition and processing of seismic data (c. USD25,000 per km2 [S1]) can incur substantial losses for the industry. Interpretation of seismic image data is not straightforward and interpretations are subject to considerable uncertainty, meaning that geological interpretations of seismic image data cannot be validated prior to exploratory drilling. This has significant cost implications due to the expense associated with drilling wells.

Seismic interpretations are sensitive to both human factors (e.g. data processing decisions, interpretation bias) and non-human factors (e.g. rock velocities). Interpretational uncertainty relating to subsurface projects may significantly impact the economic viability and the expected integrity of exploratory drilling campaigns and the viability of hazardous waste storage sites, therefore there is considerable interest in new methods to increase certainty. Full consideration of the risks with misinterpretation in geological interpretation of seismic data (including management strategies and potential impacts) is thus critical to mitigate against negative environmental, economic and societal outcomes.

(a) Aberdeen research results used to develop in-house training courses at energy and subsurface service companies.

Training based on the Group’s research findings has been shown to improve understanding and reliability of interpretation among companies’ employees, leading to better decision-making in immediate projects and ultimately through careers, about interpretation of subsurface uncertainties. This allows companies to build in-house expertise and more readily rely upon human-led assessment to improve risk mitigation. As a consultant, Bond has had direct input into the design and formulation of training materials for Wintershall Dea [S1] and has input into BP and Schlumberger training content through webinars designed to supplement internal training offerings [S4]. At Wintershall Dea, Bond’s research underpinned the development of a tool for seismic interpreters to improve their awareness of bias (from 2015-present). This tool lead “… to a better uncertainty management along the […] life cycle of Exploration, Development and Production projects.” and is now available to 400 professionals within the structural geology and seismic interpreter community of practice [S1]. Bond’s research has been incorporated into a wide range of training materials delivered to industry professionals in the energy sector. This includes continued professional development courses delivered with major energy companies such as Shell, ConocoPhillips and BP, which are three of the seven largest energy companies in the world, as well as with Equinor and Wintershall Dea [S1, S3, S4, S5], and via training courses provided to energy companies by external contractors and consultants [S2, S5, S6].

Principal Structural Geologist at ConocoPhillips who previously delivered training based on Bond’s research to 400 geoscientists has stated:

We have evidence that this training […] benefits seismic interpreters. Many of these steps are now a formal requirement in many oil companies during technical review stages and as such exposing employees to Dr Bond's research both improves the quality of individuals' work and provides a set of recommendations for meeting technical review requirements.” [extract from testimonial, S2]. Development of employees’ seismic interpretation skills leads to direct economic benefit for energy companies [S1, S2, S5] through improved geological interpretation and greater leverage of seismic data since 2014 [S1].

A Senior Structural Geologist at Shell has corroborated that, “ *Dr Bond's work provides specific guidelines for improving seismic interpretation and mitigating against the negative effects of conceptual bias. This work has allowed us to tailor and focus our training material, and by doing so, improve the technical capabilities of our geoscientists.*” [Extract from testimonial, S3]

(b) Quality control, evaluation and technical review – petroleum, geological storage of waste, mineral exploration

Results from the Interpretation Uncertainty Group at the University of Aberdeen are increasingly used by the energy industry to better constrain geological uncertainties in the subsurface. Consultants and technical advisors within the sector have used this research to aid technical review of subsurface interpretation within large energy companies to reduce the uncertainties associated with exploratory drilling campaigns [S5, S6]. Bond’s expertise has led to contracts with BP, Total [iii] and ConocoPhillips and attracted significant internal investment in the development of new tools and techniques at Wintershall Dea to assess the quality and consistency of subsurface interpretations and to further develop workflows for constraining subsurface uncertainty [S1].

The hazardous waste storage industry both in the UK and in Europe. Nagra (Swiss Nuclear Waste Body) has funded Bond’s research into storage site selection through consultancy services [ii] and input into policy development working with the British Geological Survey and Radioactive Waste Management on managing geological uncertainty in the managing radioactive waste safely process. Finally, Bond and her groups’ research has been used in the mineral exploration industry to aid interpretation and reduce uncertainties around the occurrence and estimated volumes of reserves in the subsurface [S7].

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[S1] Testimonial from Head of Reservoir Management, Wintershall Dea, corroborates Bond’s input into the design and formulation of training materials for Wintershall Dea and the value of CPD courses

[S2] Testimonial from a Senior Associate, Rose & Associates (LLP) (risk assessment experts), corroborates the development of employees’ seismic interpretation skills and direct economic benefit for energy companies

[S3] Testimonial from a Senior Structural Geologist, Shell, corroborates that the research has underpinned guidelines for improving seismic interpretation and mitigating against the negative effects of conceptual bias

[S4] Testimonial from a Senior Structural Geologist and Petroleum Systems Analyst, Schlumberger: corroborates Bond’s input to Schlumberger training content through webinars

[S5] CEO and Chief Scientist at GeoStructure (LLC) testimonial, corroborates that Bond’s research has been used to aid technical review of subsurface interpretation within large energy companies

[S6] Testimonial from Geophysicist, corroborates that Bond’s research has reduced the uncertainties associated with exploratory drilling campaigns

[S7] Introduction to the special issue on geophysics applied to mineral exploration (https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes\-2018\-0314\)

Submitting institution
University of Aberdeen
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
Yes

1. Summary of the impact

Research led by Professor David Lusseau at the University of Aberdeen has underpinned global governance and best practice in marine tourism activities worldwide, introducing methodological approaches to enable appraisal of potential conservation impacts, thereby informing management decisions in the marine tourism industry. Through policy development work and involvement in public information campaigns, Lusseau has raised awareness amongst public, government and industry of the risks associated with unregulated marine tourism activities – contributing to international best practice and educational resources globally, such as the UN World Ocean Assessment (2021) and the International Whaling Commission’s ‘Whale Watching Handbook’. His research has informed management approaches in the United States (U.S.) marine tourism industry and underpins guidance for management approaches in New Zealand such as the use of exclusion zones; his work also underpins new legislation in the U.S. and Canada dictating the minimum distance at which whales can safely be observed.

2. Underpinning research

As a result of increased human activity in marine environments, interactions with marine life is intensifying - these interactions act as stressors and can lead to significant behavioural disturbances. As reported in REF2014, research undertaken by Professor David Lusseau and his team has demonstrated that repeated exposure to human disturbances leads to significant changes in the behaviour of marine species, such as whales and dolphins.

The diversification and intensification of marine activities present complex regulatory challenges, due to associated social and ecological impacts, referred to as ‘sub-lethal’ impacts – that is, activities not directly extirpating value or resources from local communities and ecosystems. The sustainability of non-traditional marine activity sectors, including tourism, depends on the ability of individuals and organisations to manage these stress-mediated indirect sub-lethal impacts, particularly with regard to cetaceans. These impacts emerge from the complex interactions between human exploitation patterns and the way cetaceans use the seas. Managing them therefore requires an understanding of both human behaviour and sectorial microeconomics as well as the population ecology of targeted species or the affected habitat.

Establishing the effect of vessel disturbance

Behavioural responses can be used to detect short-term reactions to a stressor, such as vessel disturbances, which can affect the behaviour of the targeted cetacean populations primarily mediated by foraging disruptions. Since 2008, Lusseau and his team have undertaken studies to inform effects on targeted animal population conservation status. These include [3], which demonstrates that the foraging behaviour of Southern Resident Killer Whales, living in Puget Sound at the border of Washington State (U.S.) and British Columbia (Canada) was disrupted by tourism to a point that it raised conservation concerns particularly due to severe depletions in their primary food source, Chinook salmon. Similar impacts were detected for bottlenose dolphins living in the Moray Firth, Scotland [6], and those living in Doubtful Sound, New Zealand [2] as well as Minke whales living in Iceland [5]. Using impact assessment approaches, Lusseau and his team were able to appraise the likely conservation threat tourism and marine traffic associated with other activities for a particular population, showing comparatively that whilst Minke whales in Iceland could sustain more tourism, this was not the case for bottlenose dolphins in Doubtful Sound (New Zealand) or killer whales in Puget Sound (U.S./Canada). Lusseau and team were also able to make predictions about the likely conservation impact of new developments (such as wind farms) in the Moray Firth, showing that a short-term demographic impact could be expected but that the population would be able to endure it for the duration of the reporting time frame as stipulated by the Habitats Directive (European Commission). Through his research, Lusseau has introduced seminal methodological approaches to enable appraisal of potential conservation impacts within the timescale required for management decisions, in turn has ensuring that the regulation of human disturbances is less open for mis-interpretation and strives to ensure the same regulatory targets as other form of impacts.

Developing governance structures and management models to maintain sustainable wildlife tourism

Lusseau first introduced the idea of exclusion zones to minimise overlap between tourism and the location where cetaceans are likely to engage in activities that are sensitive to the stressor elicited by vessel disturbance in 2003 [2] (see [S11] for corroboration). As outlined in REF2014, this proposal was implemented by and it is one of the rare instances in the world where a wildlife tourism management approach has been shown to be effective at reducing impact while maintaining the economic viability of the activities.

Building on this work at a local scale, Lusseau and research team have developed new socio-ecological agent-based models of wildlife tourism that can be directly applied to test new governance approaches using computer simulations to wildlife tourism, thereby informing policy. In [7], Lusseau and Pirotta (PhD student) introduced simulation approaches to test whether different management regimes (e.g. tax and subsidy) could provide socio-economically sustainable solutions for wildlife tourism, finding that scenarios where time quotas were enforced using a tax and subsidy approach or were traded between operators were more likely to be sustainable [7].

These findings conclude that public-private partnerships have the greatest potential to yield sustainable tourism and in turn, have helped to rationalise the impact assessment process, reducing economic risks for investors and businesses and has shown that all governance approaches can have the scope to yield socio-ecological sustainability.

3. References to the research

References (citations via Scopus)

  1. Lusseau, D., 2003. Effects of tour boats on the behaviour of bottlenose dolphins: using Markov chains to model anthropogenic impacts. Conservation Biology, 17(6), pp.1785-1793, doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2003.00054.x, 435 citations

  2. Lusseau, D. and Higham, J.E.S., 2004. Managing the impacts of dolphin-based tourism through the definition of critical habitats: the case of bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops spp.) in Doubtful Sound, New Zealand. Tourism Management, 25(6), pp.657-667, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2003.08.012, 122 citations

  3. Lusseau, D., Bain, D. E., Williams, R., and Smith, J. C. (2009). Vessel traffic disrupts the foraging behaviour of southern resident killer whales Orcinus orca. Endanger. Species Res. 6, 211–221, doi: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00154, 114 citations

  4. Christiansen, F. & Lusseau, D. Understanding the ecological effects of whale-watching on cetaceans, chapter in book: Whale-watching, sustainable tourism and ecological management. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK (eds J. E. S. Higham, L. Bejder, & R. Williams) Ch. 13, 177-192 (Cambridge University Press, 2014).

  5. Christiansen, F. and Lusseau, D., 2015. Linking behavior to vital rates to measure the effects of non‐lethal disturbance on wildlife. Conservation Letters, 8(6), pp.424-431, doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12166, 70 citations

  6. Pirotta, E., Merchant, N. D., Thompson, P. M., Barton, T. R. & Lusseau, D. Quantifying the effect of boat disturbance on bottlenose dolphin foraging activity. Biological Conservation 181, 82-89,doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.11.003 (2015), 93 citations

  7. Pirotta, E. and Lusseau, D., 2015. Managing the wildlife tourism commons. Ecological Applications, 25(3), pp.729-741, doi: https://doi.org/10.1890/14\-0986.1, 16 citations

Grants

The development of a framework to understand and predict the population consequences of disturbances for the Moray Firth bottlenose dolphin population. Scottish Natural Heritage; 2011-2012; GBP40,000

Predicting the ability of marine mammal populations to compensate for behavioural disturbances, Office of Naval Research; 01/13-12/13; GBP104,191

MASTS prize PhD studentship, Scottish Funding Council, 10/11-09/15; GBP40,000, Lusseau as Lead Supervisor

4. Details of the impact

The research underpinning this case study has led to global impact by:

  1. Raising global awareness through public information campaigns;

  2. Informing global governance to improve vessel impact assessments in Canada and U.S and New Zealand;

  3. Informing best practice for U.S. marine tourism industry

Informing global governance impact assessments and best practice

Lusseau and his team’s research [7] underpinned the development of disturbance management objectives and research framework as well as informed management actions. The research led to the conclusion that conservation threats associated with disturbances are on the rise globally (as recognised by the United Nations World Ocean Assessment (WOA) II, Chapter 6D), a resource dedicated to the current assessment for threats not relating to direct physical injury, caused by shipping to marine mammals [S1i]. Lusseau‘s research formed the evidence base for Section 6.2, ‘Non-lethal activities’ (p157). [ text removed for publication] [S1ii]. WOA 11 was adopted on 31 December 2020 and the finalised assessment, delayed by the current pandemic will be released in early 2021 [S1ii].

Lusseau’s research [4,7] also underpins the ‘Whale Watching Handbook´, an online toolkit developed by the International Whaling Commission and the Convention for Migratory Species to support managers, regulators, operators and members of the public, globally, to practice responsible management of whale watching across the world [S2]. Their work underpins ‘Responsible Management’: benefits and impacts of whale watching: https://bit.ly/3e3TvtH as well as management strategies and tools: https://bit.ly/307E5fP. The Handbook, which is reviewed each year at the meeting of the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission is an evolving tool incorporating international best practice, educational resources and a summary of the latest, relevant scientific information. The research described in this case study [4] also underpins the development of a global research framework, which aims to understand the population consequences of disturbances produced by the U.S. National Academies [S3].

Raising global awareness through public information campaigns

Lusseau’s research has received worldwide media attention, with synthesis articles published by Nature (2014), the BBC (2016), Ecology for the Masses (2020). These articles have raised the profile of the research, highlighting the need for a precautionary approach to mitigate the risk of unregulated marine tourism (mammal watching) and its consequences [S4].

Lusseau’s research [3] has been featured in a blog ( https://www.seattleaquarium.org/blog/orca-update-why-do-boats-matter) by the Seattle Aquarium [S5i]. This has been used to inform the public of the basis of Governor’s Orca Emergency Response package; SB5577, a recent initiative to address the non-lethal impacts of whale-watching and vessel disturbance on Southern Resident killer whales. In relation to these concerns, the San Juan Islander (Washington, U.S.; daily circulation approximately 1,834) reported on a moratorium on whale watching (2020) on Puget Sound, which was recommended by the former Executive Director of the Marine Mammal Commission on the basis of Lusseau’s research (and others) [S5ii].

Canada

In 2017, Federal Fisheries Minister (British Colombia) announced the government’s plan to pass new regulations in the spring of 2018, which would require boaters to stay at least 200 metres away from resident killer whales in Canadian waters. This decision was based on the South Resident Killer Whale Symposium held in Vancouver, BC in October 2017, which drew on expertise from Lusseau and others. An article released by the B.C. Cetacean Sightings Network in 2017 listed [3] as one of the key references underpinning this decision [S6]. The symposium delegates agreed that rapid action and drastic changes would be needed to save the critically endangered southern resident population.

United States

In 2016, Orca Relief Citizen’s Alliance, a non-profit organisation committed to conservation of orcas, submitted a petition to establish a whale protection zone for the southern resident killer whale due to disturbance by commercial and non-commercial vessels. The petition drew heavily on Lusseau’s research to highlight noise and disturbance as major risk factors to the population, demonstrating that these factors increase as the numbers of vessels increase [S7].

Following increasing pressure as a result of this pressure and growing concern around the effect of vessel disturbance on south resident killer whales, in 2019, the National Marine Fisheries Service (U.S.) announced a public scoping process to determine how best to protect Southern Resident killer whales from noise and disturbance in Washington’s inner body of water. Later in 2019, the Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) was contracted to facilitate a scientific technical review of the best available science evaluating disturbance and noise impacts on southern resident killer whales caused by small vessels and commercial whale watching in response to SB5577 (2019). Lusseau was invited [S8i] to join the Washington State Academy of Sciences (WSAS) committee ‘Underwater Acoustics and Disturbance’ in March 2020, tasked with developing new whale watching rules per SSB5577 and to answer specific questions about underwater acoustics and disturbance to inform the development of new WDFW regulations for a commercial whale watching licensing program in Washington state [S8ii, iii].

The WSAS Committee’s Underwater Acoustics and Disturbance report (August 2020) [S8] drew heavily on Lusseau and his team’s research to identify current important regions of southern resident killer whales foraging and in reducing foraging southern resident killer whales exposure to vessels. The report supported the view that protecting key foraging hotspots would be a mechanism to support the population. Lusseau and team’s research (amongst others) demonstrated that adaptive management would be critical for linking regulations to observed animal distributions rather than to a small geographical area. In turn, this would allow vessel spatial restrictions to be reviewed regularly to accommodate any documented or observed changes in southern resident killer whales foraging patterns. These recommendations can be directly linked to Lusseau and his team’s research [3], and now underpin a U.S. federal rule proposed in 2019 in order to revise the critical habitat designation for southern resident killer whales to include the Strait of Juan de Fuca and coastal waters along the U.S. west coast (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 2019) [S9].

Informing best practice in U.S. marine tourism industry

Lusseau’s research presents an empirically-driven predictive modelling framework that provides an objective approach to plan for the cumulative impacts of tourism activities within the context of other maritime activities and subsequently manage their spatial and temporal operations [2, 4, 5]. Drawing on Lusseau’s research, in 2016, the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), developed an ocean noise strategy roadmap and NOAA national guidelines in order to outline what constitutes marine harassment and highlighting the risks of feeding marine mammals [S10]. These guidelines have led to the innovation of public-private partnership governance models that are now implemented as global best practice by the World Cetacean Alliance in order to manage coastal development and marine tourism.

New Zealand

Research carried out independently in 2016 showed that the voluntary code of management approaches proposed by Lusseau in [1, 2, 7] were effective at reducing the effect of tourism, without disrupting the economic profitability of the sector in the region. The reduced effect was concordant with a demographic improvement for the dolphin population in Doubtful Sound. The authors conclude, ‘ The management measures established in 2008 appear to have benefitted the population of bottlenose dolphins of Doubtful Sound by reducing the frequency and duration of interactions with boats’ [S11].

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[S1 (group)] (i) UN World Ocean Assessment (WOA) II, draft Chapter 6D, p149 and p157 ( https://bit.ly/3sLePIx), (ii) [ text removed for publication]

[S2] International Whaling Commission (IWC), whale watching handbook (Chapter on Responsible Management)

[S3] US National Academies global framework to inform best practice, https://www.nap.edu/read/23479

[S4 (group)] Media articles demonstrating the breadth of uptake of and awareness-raising achieved by Lusseau’s research: Nature (2014) https://go.nature.com/3c83FYK; BBC (2016) https://bbc.in/3sai4JL; Ecology for the Masses https://bit.ly/3lEmoOX

[S5 (group)] (i) Seattle Aquarium blog and infographic ( https://www.seattleaquarium.org/blog/orca-update-why-do-boats-matter); (ii) San Juan Islander media report on moratorium (2020), https://bit.ly/3cODUMb

[S6] News article (B.C. Cetacean Sightings Network) detailing new regulations to help protect resident killer whales (Oct, 2017)

[S7] Petition by Orca Relief Citizen’s Alliance (2016), https://www.orcarelief.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/SRKW-Regulatory-Request.pdf

[S8 (group)] (i) WSAS invitation to join the study committee ‘Underwater Acoustics and Disturbance’; (ii) WSAS report and (iii) acknowledgement of contribution to the enquiry

[S9] U.S. federal rule that was proposed in order to revise the critical habitat designation for SRKW

[S10] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ocean noise strategy roadmap; Global best practice guidelines from World Cetacean Alliance ( https://cetsound.noaa.gov/Assets/cetsound/documents/Roadmap/ONS_Roadmap_Final_Complete.pdf)

[S11] Evidence demonstrating that proposed management approaches were effective at reducing the effect of tourism without disrupting the economic profitability, link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517716300802

Submitting institution
University of Aberdeen
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

The role of offshore renewable energy is essential to UK efforts both to meet climate change targets and to provide energy security. At the same time, legislative requirements are in place to protect the marine environment. This team at the University of Aberdeen has led a programme of interdisciplinary research to explore the responses of key marine mammal populations to different stages of wind farm construction and operation, assessing the extent to which animals may be injured or displaced. Their findings have underpinned the development of novel and safe approaches to mitigating the effects of piling noise, leading to a reduction in the environmental impacts on marine mammals, improvements in the economic viability of offshore renewable energy schemes, influencing industry guidelines, leading to changes in construction practices, and informing national and international decision-making.

2. Underpinning research

UK efforts to meet climate change targets and provide energy security depend critically on offshore renewables. However, there had been two key challenges: 1) developing new offshore infrastructure projects whilst meeting increasingly stringent environmental legislation; and 2) reducing the costs of construction so that the renewable energy sources can compete with conventional approaches. As part of a broad academic-industry collaboration, a team of Aberdeen marine mammal researchers, led by Prof Paul Thompson, has been working on these challenges for the last 15 years, with their work in the Moray Firth internationally recognized for providing unique insights into interactions between top predators and environmental perturbations. Earlier phases of work evaluated methods for studying spatio-temporal variation in marine mammal distribution around offshore development sites [ R1], resulting in the development of novel assessment frameworks that underpinned wind farm planning consents.

These frameworks were informed by results from Thompson’s earlier studies of broad-scale responses of small cetaceans to impulsive noise produced during oil and gas exploration surveys [ R2]. Uncertainty remained over how animals respond to similarly loud noise sources generated when steel piles are hammered into the seabed to install the foundations for offshore wind turbines. Death or injury at close range, auditory damage from accumulated noise and behavioural disruption are risks to marine mammals.

This research challenge was exacerbated in 2016 when, following the threat of EU court action, the UK government developed proposals for Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) for harbour porpoises. Several of these overlapped with consented offshore wind farms developments, two of which – Beatrice Offshore Windfarm Ltd (BOWL) and Moray Offshore Windfarm East Ltd (MOWEL) – were within the University of Aberdeen’s Moray Firth study system. Precautionary management guidance from the Joint Nature Conservancy Council (JNCC), the UK statutory advisor, included proposals for spatio-temporal restrictions on piling activity based upon assumed displacement at 25 km. JNCC guidance also required independent observers to confirm that no cetaceans were observed prior to each piling event in order to mitigate near-field injuries. These proposals provided both economic and environmental challenges to developers and regulators. Potential delays to piling threatened project viability given vessel costs of around GBP250,000 per day. Environmentally, there had been criticism that JNCC guidelines provided inadequate protection from injury because of the observers’ low detection rates for porpoises in offshore conditions.

To address these challenges, Thompson developed and led a strategic research programme and funding consortium to evaluate responses of key marine mammal populations to different stages of wind farm construction and operation. Critically, studies were designed to go beyond the consent monitoring typically required of developers. Instead, they focused on key uncertainties identified by academics, regulators and other stakeholders during the consenting process; measuring noise levels to validate acoustic propagation models used in consenting [ R3] and characterising responses of marine mammals to these disturbances [ R4]. By studying the extent to which animals may be injured or displaced during construction of the UK’s first deep-water wind farm (BOWL), the programme tested and adapted current assessment and monitoring frameworks, reducing uncertainties for subsequent consenting rounds.

Parallel studies in the inner Moray Firth were conducted around a harbour extension at the Nigg Energy Park. These revealed only minor displacement of cetaceans in response to two different piling technologies [ R3], but highlighted the need for underwater noise modelling methods to take account of local bathymetric conditions [ R4]. This work was built upon during the 2017 installation of 84 deep-water turbine bases at BOWL. An extensive array of passive acoustic devices was deployed in a gradient design across a study area of >2000 km2. This permitted the testing of assumptions used in regulatory assessments and mitigation procedures developed by Thompson and project engineers using risk-based assessments informed by the University of Aberdeen baseline studies.

Firstly, these tests measured and modelled levels of underwater noise in relation to the hammer-energies used to install piles for deep-water jacket foundations. Unlike previous studies at shallow water monopile foundations, noise levels were highest during piling “soft-starts” and, unexpectedly, levels reduced as piles were driven further into the sediment [ R5]. Secondly, the tests quantified the extent of harbour porpoise displacement in response to the acoustic deterrent devices (ADDs) used to mitigate near-field (<250m) injury when piling is initiated. This demonstrated that, while this mitigation approach proved effective, strong responses of porpoises to ADDs at distances of > 20 km resulted in far-field disturbance well beyond that required for mitigating injury [ R5]. In contrast, porpoise behavioural responses to pile driving diminished during the construction period and were always much lower than the 25 km threshold used in previous regulator guidance, and data were used to generate new “dose-response” curves to characterize harbour porpoise disturbance levels [ R6]. The generality of these findings is now being assessed within the next phase of this strategic research programme, through the analysis of data from a replicate study conducted during the installation of 100 turbine foundations at the neighbouring 100-turbine MOWEL in 2019.

3. References to the research

The quality of the research is deemed to be at least of 2* quality as corroborated by the following peer-reviewed, international publications (with Google Scholar citations):

[ R1] Williamson, L.D., Brookes, K.L., Scott, B.E., Graham, I.M., Bradbury, G., Hammond, P.S. and Thompson, P.M. (2016) Echolocation detections and digital video surveys provide reliable estimates of the relative density of harbour porpoises. Methods Ecol Evol, 7: 762-769. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041\-210X.12538 ( 26)

[ R2] Thompson P.M., Brookes K.L., Graham I.M., Barton Tim R., Needham Keith, Bradbury Gareth and Merchant Nathan D. (2013) Short-term disturbance by a commercial two-dimensional seismic survey does not lead to long-term displacement of harbour porpoises. Proc. R. Soc. B.28020132001

http://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2001 ( 102)

[ R3] Graham, I. M., Pirotta, E., Merchant, N. D., Farcas, A., Barton, T. R., Cheney, B., Hastie, G. D., and Thompson, P. M. (2017). Responses of bottlenose dolphins and harbor porpoises to impact and vibration piling noise during harbor construction. Ecosphere 8(5):e01793. 10.1002/ecs2.1793. ( 9)

[ R4] Farcas, A. Thompson, P.M. & Merchant, N.D. (2016) Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 57:114-122 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2015.11.012 ( 94)

[ R5] Thompson, PM, Graham, IM, Cheney, B, Barton, TR, Farcas, A, Merchant, ND. (2020) Balancing risks of injury and disturbance to marine mammals when pile driving at offshore windfarms. Ecol Solut Evidence. 1:e12034. https://doi.org/10.1002/2688\-8319.12034

[ R6] Graham I. M., Merchant Nathan D., Farcas Adrian, Barton Tim R., Cheney B, Bono Saliza and Thompson P. M. 2019 Harbour porpoise responses to pile-driving diminish over time. R. Soc. Open Sci.6190335

http://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.190335 ( 16)

Funding:

2011-2012 Scottish Government, Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate. GBP148,926 awarded to Thompson for Methods for monitoring marine mammals at marine renewable energy developments

2012-2016 Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, Hartley Anderson Ltd. GBP245,200 awarded to Thompson for Assessing cetacean responses to pile driving noise

2012-2024 Scottish Natural Heritage (now Nature Scot). GBP344,900 awarded to Thompson for Bottlenose dolphin site condition monitoring in the Moray Firth SAC

2014-2016 Highlands and Islands Enterprise. GBP65,085 awarded to Thompson for Moray Firth Marine Mammals Monitoring Programme (MFMMMP)

2014-2016 Crown Estate. GBP36,000 awarded to Thompson for MFMMMP

2014-2016 Scottish Government. GBP300,000 awarded to Thompson for MFMMMP

2014-2020 Beatrice Offshore Windfarm Ltd. GBP1,818,727 to Thompson for MFMMMP

2019-2022 Moray East Offshore Windfarm Ltd. GBP1,465,086 awarded to Thompson for Marine Mammal Construction Monitoring

4. Details of the impact

Aberdeen’s programme of research exploring the responses of key marine mammal populations to different stages of wind farm construction and operation has led to a reduction of environmental impacts to those marine mammals, improved the economic viability of offshore renewable energy schemes, influenced industry guidelines, leading to changes in construction practices, and informed national and international decision-making.

Reducing the environmental impacts on marine mammals

Working with developers’ engineering teams and the findings from Aberdeen’s large-scale field studies [ R1]; new approaches for mitigating injury risk from piling noise were developed. These relied on routine integration of ADDs into engineering processes at BOWL, to disperse animals from near-field injury zones. Thompson led the development of risk-assessment [ S1i pp110-141; S1ii pp p89-120] that satisfied regulators that this carefully controlled use of acoustic deterrents resulted in sufficiently low residual risk of injury, and was “a key component of the approaches taken by the developers, and accepted by the RAG [regional advisory group] and the Regulator” [ S2i, S2ii], and trialed in the Moray Firth [ S3]. The existence of Aberdeen’s strategic marine mammal research programme provided the necessary framework for the required research and monitoring to be incorporated into the developer’s Project Environmental Monitoring Plan [ S4] and Prof Thompson managed the marine mammals monitoring programme (MMMP) pre- and during construction phases (2014-2021) [ S1]. Results confirmed the efficacy of the mitigation approach but highlighted additional risks from far-field disturbance [ R5]. These findings were rapidly adopted by Scottish regulators who in 2019 altered the required duration of ADD deployments during piling procedures at MOWEL [ S2; S3; S5] to reduce unintended far-field disturbance.

Improving the economic viability of offshore renewable energy schemes

The Aberdeen-based approaches for mitigating injury risk also removed an existing requirement for visual marine mammal observers on piling vessels. Due to the research “digital aerial surveys have almost completely replaced traditional methods for most population-scale surveys of marine wildlife, including marine mammals. Marine Scotland [Scottish Government] only recommends the use of this method to developers of offshore wind farms” [ S6]. Previously, significant uncertainties of engineering delays to e.g. due to poor weather preventing visual observations would extend construction schedules. This presented a key risk to the economic viability of offshore developments given the high daily cost of construction vessels. This work provided greater certainty over construction timescales and contributed to driving down project costs. Developers of the Moray windfarms saw impacts from this tighter integration of mitigation and engineering processes, resulting in “greater certainty over timescales and contributed to an estimated [ text removed for publication] reduction in construction costs” for BOWL [ S3]; and MOWEL having a “ more efficient piling campaign, a shorter programme, with a reduced predicted impact on marine mammals and estimated cost savings in excess on [ text removed for publication] [ S5] with completion of each in 10 months, in contrast to anticipated two- and three-year schedules in their respective consent applications.

Influencing industry guidelines, leading to changes in construction practices

Research evaluating monitoring approaches at Moray Firth windfarms [ S1] re-assured statutory advisors that they represent best practice, encouraging widespread use in the UK and beyond [ S2; S7; S8]. Data from the studies reduced conservatism in assumptions over cetacean displacement, and the “dose-response” curves they generated underpinned environmental assessments for the next phase of offshore wind development for UK (e.g. Hornsea 3 and Moray West) [ S5] and re-assessments for consented windfarms delayed by environmental court actions (eg. Seagreen and Inch Cape) [ S9]. JNCC refer to the research [ R2; R6] in their 2020 guidance for assessing noise disturbance in harbor porpoise SACs for England, Wales and Northern Ireland [ S10].

Informing national and international understanding through galvanizing stakeholder interactions to find solutions

The Aberdeen research has informed broader understanding of the responses of key marine mammal populations to different stages of wind farm construction and operation nationally and internationally. Approaches that Thompson developed working with MOWEL are informing their parent company Oceanwinds’ stakeholder interactions at new developments within important marine mammal habitats including the Baltic Regions, Korea and Japan, and North and South America [ S5]. In the US, Program Director for Ocean Acoustics within the government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has applied the Aberdeen research in decision-making processing, highlighting the work as “ field-leading” and of “ central importance” [ S11].

Impacts beyond the region have been accelerated by Thompson’s involvement in steering and advisory groups. Within the UK this has included the Offshore Renewables Joint Industry Project (ORJIP) on the Efficacy of Acoustic Deterrent Devices and consultancies for other UK developers; In the EU, through Vattenfall’s DEPONS Project; in the US through activities of the Working Together to Resolve Environmental Effects of Wind Energy (WREN) Group. Cross membership of these different bodies and MFRAG led to requests from regulators for early dissemination of the initial data on the extent to which porpoises were displaced by piling noise at the BOWL development to fill a data gap identified during scoping of new consent applications. A confidential briefing paper (pre-publication data, [ R6]) was provided by Thompson for BOWL, and key developers and regulators in September 2017, allowing the data to be incorporated into consent applications at other North Sea sites prior to publication in the formal peer-review literature.

The research of Prof Thompson and his leadership of MMMP has been lauded by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) - the statutory adviser to UK government on nature conservation – as “ useful for not just the Moray Firth wind farms and environment, but it has been used to inform environmental impact assessments and mitigation measures for other wind farms in the UK and beyondas an example to follow in other parts of the UK” [ S7]. NatureScot – formerly, Scottish Natural Heritage – who advise the Scottish Government attribute the research to have helped get “ to where we are now, with three commercial windfarms consented in the Moray Firth … to bring knowledge and expertise to these discussions has enabled pragmatic and proportionate conversations to continue in the search of solutions. You and your team have built strong relationships across the group comprising of regulators, advisers, developers and their consultants. This has also resulted in talks at various national and international fora (Scotmer, WREN etc.) in demonstrating the research findings and helping to formulate future offshore policy and casework guidance not just in Scottish waters, but also beyond [ S8].

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

S1. (i) BOWL – Piling Strategy – Nov 2015

(ii) Moray Offshore Renewables Ltd – Piling Strategy – 2016

S2. (i) MRAG vote agree to use the Aberdeen approach Oct 2015 Minutes

(ii)Testimonial - Head of Marine Scotland Science, Marine Scotland

S3. SSE (BOWL Developer) Testimonial - Director

S4. BOWL – Environmental Monitoring Programme – July 2017

S5. Ocean Winds (MOWEL/MORL Developer) – Testimonial – Managing Director, UK

S6. Hi-Def Aerial Surveying Consultant – Testimonial – Managing Director

S7. JNCC – Testimonial – Head of Marine Management

S8. NatureScot Testimonial - Marine Sustainability Manager/Sustainable Coasts and Seas

S9. Inch Cape Testimonial – Offshore Consents Manager

S10. JNCC 2020 Guidance for assessing the significance of noise disturbance against Conservation Objectives of harbour porpoise SACs

** S11**. Testimonial - former Program Director of US Government Ocean Acoustics, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Showing impact case studies 1 to 6 of 6

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