Impact case study database
Search and filter
Filter by
- School of Oriental and African Studies
- 22 - Anthropology and Development Studies
- Submitting institution
- School of Oriental and African Studies
- Unit of assessment
- 22 - Anthropology and Development Studies : B - 22B Development Studies
- Summary impact type
- Societal
- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
Research at SOAS has openly challenged public perceptions that Fairtrade and other certification schemes improve conditions for the poorest people in producing countries. Initial research on the effects of Fairtrade certification on rural labour markets and wages and a subsequent systematic review of wider agricultural certification schemes, have had an impact on the practices of agricultural certification standard bodies (including Fairtrade International and the ISEAL Alliance) in terms of monitoring and assessment of the impact of the schemes as well as on standard setting. The research has informed the reform of the coffee sector in Ethiopia and has also changed public understanding of certification standards.
2. Underpinning research
Fairtrade schemes award certifications to producers of commodities such as coffee, tea, bananas, flowers, cocoa etc. to reassure consumers that these are produced in relatively “decent” working conditions. Yet, prior to the research described in this case study, there had been virtually no independent research on the impact of such certifications on the poorest people, especially wage workers, and on the effectiveness of agricultural certification schemes in addressing rural poverty. Fairtrade was and remains the best known of these schemes and it has separate certification standards for ‘hired labour’ and ‘smallholder’ producer organizations (SPOs), based upon the assumption that smallholder producers did not employ significant numbers of wage workers. Fairtrade also claimed that rural producer cooperatives were democratic and egalitarian, again without a strong foundation in independently collected, methodologically careful research. Meanwhile, standards monitoring organizations like ISEAL (the global membership organization for credible sustainability standards) also lacked knowledge and capabilities in this respect.
SOAS-led research has challenged such assumptions with two research projects. The first project was led by Christopher Cramer (Professor of the Political Economy of Development); the second by Carlos Oya (Professor of the Political Economy of Development). The research also engaged John Sender (Emeritus Professor of Economics at SOAS), Deborah Johnston (then Professor of Economics, SOAS), and Florian Schaefer at LSE.
In the first project - Fairtrade, Employment, and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia and Uganda, FTEPR (2010-2014, Department for International Development, GBP692,958) - the researchers carried out fieldwork in Ethiopia and Uganda. Surveys were conducted to compare labour markets and production, looking at areas with 1) certified producer organizations; 2) smallholder production with no Fairtrade certified organizations; and 3) areas defined around large-scale commercial plantations. In total, 1,700 people were interviewed, through individual interviews and focus group discussions – including cooperative leadership, private plantation and company managers and owners, policy officials and wage workers [3.3]. The research showed that huge numbers of very poor people depend for their survival on wage employment in small-scale coffee and tea production in Ethiopia and Uganda. The key finding was that Fairtrade certification could not be associated with any positive outcomes for wage workers compared to other production arrangements [3.1]. This was the case both in larger scale flower farms in Ethiopia and in smallholder producer organizations (SPOs). Further, the research found that cooperatives were highly unequal organizations, in which the largest and best-off producer-members captured most of the limited gains from Fairtrade certification [3.2]. The research recommended changes to the claims made by Fairtrade as well as improved monitoring to ensure better wages and working conditions [3.2].
Following the dissemination of the FTEPR findings, the Campbell Collaboration (the leading international organisation promoting evidence-based policy in the form of systematic reviews) and 3ie-International Initiative for Impact Evaluation commissioned and funded (GBP71,624, 2014-2016) a systematic review of research on the impact of all agricultural certification schemes on socio-economic outcomes for producers and wage workers in developing countries [3.4; 3.6].
The systematic review carried out in 2016 and 2017 provided the first exhaustive and rigorous review of the state of the evidence on the impact of standards systems – certification - in developing countries. The work entailed a critical review and analysis of the evidence from 43 quantitative impact evaluations that explored the effectiveness of certification schemes, and 136 qualitative studies examining the barriers to and enablers of effective certification schemes. It found some marginal, positive effects of certification schemes on producer prices and on certified farmer incomes but no effects on household incomes or assets and mild, negative effects on wages [3.4; 3.6]. This lack of clear effects was compounded by the limited evidence base for each outcome and by widely varying results across what studies there were [3.5; 3.6]. The study recommended that organizations revise their claims to effectiveness and improve their reporting practices and monitoring capabilities to ascertain the impact of their interventions.
3. References to the research
3.1 Cramer, C., Johnston, D., Mueller, B., Oya, C., & Sender, J. (2017). Fairtrade and labour markets in Ethiopia and Uganda. The Journal of Development Studies, 53(6), 841-856. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2016.1208175 Peer-reviewed
3.2 Cramer, C., Johnston, D., Oya, C., & Sender, J. (2014). Fairtrade cooperatives in Ethiopia and Uganda: uncensored. Review of African Political Economy, 41(sup1), S115-S127. https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2014.976192 Peer-reviewed
3.3 Cramer, C., Johnston, D., Mueller, B., Oya, C., & Sender, J. (2014). How to do (and how not to do) fieldwork on Fair Trade and rural poverty. Canadian Journal of Development Studies / Revue canadienne d'études du développement, 35(1), 170-185. https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2014.873022 Peer-reviewed
3.4 Oya, C., F. Schaefer, & D. Skalidou (2018). The effectiveness of agricultural certification in developing countries: a systematic review. World Development 112, December, 282-312 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.08.001 Peer-reviewed
3.5 Skalidou, D. & C. Oya (2018). The challenges of screening and synthesising qualitative research in a mixed methods systematic review: the case of the impact of agricultural certification schemes. Journal of Development Effectiveness 10 (1), 39-60 https://doi.org/10.1080/19439342.2018.1438495 Peer-reviewed
3.6 Oya, C., F. Schaefer, D. Skalidou, C. McCosker, & L. Langer (2017). Effects of certification schemes for agricultural production on socio-economic outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Campbell Collaboration Systematic Review https://doi.org/10.4073/csr.2017.3 Peer-reviewed
4. Details of the impact
The research has had an impact on the practices of specific organizations, especially Fairtrade and ISEAL, as well as on public understanding of certification schemes. Fairtrade has since changed its standards to pay far more attention to wages and working conditions in smallholder producer organizations. The research has also influenced the reform of the Ethiopian government policy for the coffee sector.
The Systematic Review [3.6] engaged representatives of the ISEAL Alliance as members of the project advisory group. ISEAL is the global membership organisation for certification schemes; most of the certifications covered in the Systematic Review are ISEAL members. Their involvement from the start facilitated the subsequent take-up of some key recommendations. In her testimonial, the ISEAL Director of Impacts explains how the organisation has used the review as a “core resource” to forming the gathering, analysis and presentation of the evidence on the effectiveness of certification systems [5.1]. The director explains how the research has inspired ISEAL “to improve the quality of future studies and study reports”, as well to “integrate a regular systematic mapping of the literature on sustainability standards into our own operations”. Throughout the assessment period, the Systematic Review contributed to ongoing internal ISEAL discussions about the complexity of impact pathways and how to improve standards in order to meet poverty reduction goals. It raised awareness of the limited rigorous research on the impacts of standards on workers, thus providing an impetus to their fundraising for more research - particularly on the impacts of activities undertaken by the standard systems beyond certification [5.1a]. Both projects have also shaped ISEAL commitments on how to communicate their impact more accurately to members, farmers, buyers and to the general public so that they are not misled. The report now sits on Evidensia, a platform founded in 2019 by the ISEAL Alliance, Rainforest Alliance and WWF with the support of the Global Environment Facility to improve research standards in the sector [5.1b]. The SOAS Systematic Review was cited in ISEAL’s presentation to the Global Sustainability Standards Symposium 2019 [5.1c, slides 13, 14, and 33]. Summing up the project’s impact, ISEAL writes that “Ultimately, this study provides much learning for sustainability standards and ISEAL will work with its member systems and the SOAS research team to learn from this review”. [5.1d p3].
ISEAL members such as UTZ (a certification scheme for the sustainable farming of coffee and cocoa) and Fairtrade also individually acknowledged the Systematic Review. Fairtrade confirmed in January 2020 [5.2] that their Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning team had used the Systematic Review in [text removed for publication]. In their response to the review, UTZ explains that it contains important lessons that can inform their work in different areas. Specifically, in relation to their work on monitoring and evaluation, UTZ stated that a key lesson of the study was “the need to continue our investment in our M&E capacity, in order to monitor improvements and innovations to certification and evaluate impact. We will use the findings of the review to refine our Theory of Change and to unpack the underlying pathways of change and how these work in different contexts, for different farmers”. Moreover, UTZ also committed to “align and collaborate with other stakeholders to pool evaluation resources” [5.3 p4].
After an initially hostile response, including legal threats that were then withdrawn and concerns that the FTEPR research findings might damage its reputation, Fairtrade acknowledged the utility of the SOAS research and engaged more constructively with its findings and recommendations. In June 2014, Harriet Lamb, then CEO of the Fairtrade Foundation, stated “We recognize and appreciate the insights their research gives into the type and conditions of employment of vulnerable farm workers […]; we hope that the SOAS data will help address […] how to better reach temporary labourers and casual workers and ensure benefits of trade include them” [5.4 p2]. A 2014 Fairtrade International and Flocert report (FLOCert being the independently governed audit and certification body for Fairtrade) cited the FTEPR research and recognized that workers in SPOs had been “largely overlooked”. Acknowledging that “Fairtrade’s work with farmers in cooperatives does not necessarily result in significant benefits trickling down to the workers”, the report noted that Fairtrade “will be working on this in 2015 and beyond” [p.24 – 5.5]. The annual Fairtrade report (2017) also cited the research and its findings concerning workers and wages in SPOs [p. 19 - 5.6]. During a Fairtrade 2018 consultation to review SPO standards, the need to address the situation of workers in SPOs was discussed – an issue not addressed at all in previous consultation rounds – although the consultation report indicates that many members (who are mainly farmers/employers) were resistant [5.7, p8].
The 2016 completion review of Fairtrade’s Programme Partnership Arrangement with DFID, which was an opportunity to reflect on lessons learned over the previous period of DFID funded Fairtrade programmes, states that: “responding to research findings into working conditions and earnings of smallholder farmers, we have improved and revised the Hired Labour Standard with stronger protection and benefits for workers, launched a new project to improve the situation of workers within small farmer organizations and further improved our monitoring and evaluation systems to gather essential data on wages and working conditions to feed back into our work” [5.8 p27]. The revised Fairtrade Standard for SPO (April 2019) amended the threshold for application of the standard so that now producers employing at least 10 workers should be subject to monitoring of working conditions, “[to] ensure that a larger number of workers in SPO are covered by the requirements in the Standard”, to “strengthen the requirement [that producers give and provide employment contracts to permanent workers] and to promote decent work and reduction of risk of exploitative practices” [5.9 p9]. There has therefore been a clear shift in Fairtrade standards concerning wage employment in SPO, as recommended by the research.
FTEPR research also helped shape major reforms to the coffee sector in Ethiopia. After a presentation of the research to high-level policy officials and coffee sector stakeholders in Addis Ababa (in November 2013), Cramer and Sender were invited to present to the then Prime Minister and his senior advisor, Dr. Arkebe Oqubay. This led to a three-year engagement with the Prime Minister’s Office. The research team was involved in a coffee reform process led by Dr. Arkebe, for which Cramer and Sender wrote a coffee policy paper. A number of policy changes drew directly on the SOAS research findings and recommendations, including the transformation of the Jimma Agricultural Research Institute into a body with a singular focus on coffee; the need to exploit the potential for employment creation in coffee through prioritizing finance for exports; and allowing exporters and traders to invest directly in commercial coffee plantations [5.10].
The initial research (and the related public dispute with Fairtrade itself) has attracted extensive media and press attention and stimulated widespread international public debate. In May 2014 Christopher Cramer provided an overview of the Fairtrade research that was featured on the front page of The Observer [5.11a] as well as a letter to the Financial Times [5.11b]. The Observer article was shared online almost 500 times and led to an intense debate among readers appreciating or challenging the study and its findings. The now CEO of the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data commented: “blanket rejection of a careful and well-thought-out study […] is hardly an appropriate or adult response. The report does not reject the principle of Fair Trade but asks important questions about how it works in practice and there will be plenty of people wanting answers that have a convincing ring to them”. Another dedicated Guardian article [5.11c] was shared 1,234 times and attracted 338 comments from readers supporting or disagreeing with the research findings. One reader noted “this is a good article – it’s made me question my activities – but rather than turning my back on ethical shopping I would prefer reports like this to be used to put pressure on Fairtrade to do more to ensure that its producers are acting ethically through the chain...” [5.11d]. In June 2014 UK fair trade organization Traidcraft published a column [5.11e] in which they stated: “We welcome the research and we are keen to learn from it”. An online column in Forbes from contributor Tim Worstall (Fellow, Adam Smith Institute in London) reviewing the study findings was visited 23,787 times [5.11f]. The research was also covered by the Economist [5.11g] and other various print and online media in the UK, Europe, and the USA, for example in Der Spiegel [5.11h], in 2014 and beyond. In 2019 the research was again cited in a Financial Times report [5.11i] - the author noting that “Fairtrade International says it has since worked closely with the researchers to listen to their views and better understand some of their findings” – and in the Guardian [5.11j – shared 858 times ]. In March 2020 the research was cited by media covering an investigation on Starbucks, Nespresso and child labour. The research has also been used as a benchmark when discussing other research projects on Fairtrade and certification schemes on public online platforms such as Twitter [5.11k].
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1. ISEAL responses a) Letter from ISEAL Director of Impacts; b) Fairtrade, employment and poverty reduction in Ethiopia and Uganda report shared on ISEAL’s Evidensia platform https://www.evidensia.eco/resources/419/fairtrade-employment-and-poverty-reduction-in-ethiopia-and-uganda/; c) The Evidence State of Play – presentation by ISEAL at the Global Sutainability Standards Symposium 2019 https://www.isealalliance.org/get-involved/resources/evidence-state-play-recording-presentation-iseal; d) ISEAL thoughts on SOAS Systematic Review: Effects of agricultural certification schemes for improving socio-economic outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (2017)
5.2. Email from The Fairtrade Foundation – provided for REF purposes only
5.3. UTZ Response to the Effects of certification schemes for agricultural production on socio-economic outcomes in low-and middle-income countries: a systematic review [3.6], April 2017
5.4. Unpeeling the Impacts of Poverty - Harriet Lamb, CEO of International Alert, 28 May 2014 https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/harriet-lamb/fairtrade_b_5402176.html?guccounter=1
5.5. Fairtrade International & Flocert (2015), Monitoring the Scope and Benefits of Fairtrade, Sixth Edition 2014. London: Fairtrade International. Report
5.6. Fairtrade Foundation (2017), Annual report and financial statements for the year ended December 31st 2017
5.7. Fairtrade International (2018), ‘Consultation Results Synopsis: information to stakeholders on the outcome of the second round of consultation – review of the standard for Smallholder Producer Organizations’.
5.8. DFID Review (2016) Unlocking the Power of Fairtrade: Powerful Partnerships for Inclusive Trade and Development: Fairtrade International Programme Partnership Arrangement
5.9. Fairtrade revised Standard for Small –scale Producer Organizations: Main Changes
5.10. Statement from Dr. Arkebe Oqubay, Senior Advisor, Prime Minister’s Office, Ethiopia
5.11. Media file
a. Fairtrade accused of failing to deliver benefits to African farmworkers - The Observer, 24 May 2014
b. Coffee farm workers still face fight for a fair deal - Financial Times, 3 June 2015
c. Harsh truths are necessary if Fairtrade is to change the lives of the very poor - The Guardian, 24 May 2014
d. Quotes from comment section of Guardian article, 24 May 2014
e. Traidcraft response to adverse report on Fairtrade – St Barnabas, 3 June 2014
f. Surprise! Fairtrade Doesn't Benefit The Poor Peasants – Forbes, 25 May 2014
g. Not so fair trade - Agriculture in Ethiopia and Uganda – The Economist, 19 May 2014
h. Fairtrade-Betriebe zahlen Arbeiter laut Studie schlecht - SPIEGEL ONLINE, 27 May 2014 (German)
i. Fair trade food schemes battle to promote better standards - Financial Times, 7 January 2019
j. Is fair trade finished? -The Guardian, 23 July 2019
k. Twitter debate, 2018
- Submitting institution
- School of Oriental and African Studies
- Unit of assessment
- 22 - Anthropology and Development Studies : B - 22B Development Studies
- Summary impact type
- Societal
- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
Research at SOAS has dramatically and significantly improved responses to migration and displacement in the Horn of Africa (HoA). The Research and Evidence Facility (hereafter the Facility) led by Prof Laura Hammond has influenced major policy and funding decisions of a range of actors, including the European Union, the Government of Somalia, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. Facility reports were used to design EU interventions in the HoA, including a EUR63,500,000 regional borderlands development programme and a EUR3,000,000 coordination platform. These were urgently needed, evidence-based improvements that promote better migration management and welfare of displaced populations.
2. Underpinning research
The Facility conducts policy-relevant primary research in nine countries of the Greater Horn of Africa (HoA) to understand the drivers, dynamics and implications of migration and displacement within the region. Fourteen million people are displaced in the HoA (including refugees, internally displaced, and returnees) – 70% of all displaced populations in Africa and more than 20% of the global total. Many more voluntary migrants move within and from the region in search of economic or educational opportunity. The Facility’s research is framed in response to key migration issues identified by the European Union (EU) in the region to directly support policy and programming, providing in-depth analysis on the context in which EU projects are being implemented.
Laura Hammond, Professor of Development Studies at SOAS, is Team Leader of the Facility, which was established in 2016 with funds from the EU Trust Fund for Africa (EUR6,600,000 2016-2022). Based at SOAS, the Facility partners with the University of Manchester and Nairobi-based Sahan Research, and works with over 50 researchers from the HoA region. Through the Facility, Prof Hammond has led research projects on displacement and return in Somalia [3.2]; development challenges in borderland regions (South Sudan-Uganda-Kenya and Somalia/Somaliland-Djibouti-Ethiopia) [3.1, 3.3]; movement between the Horn of Africa and Yemen [3.4] and refugee hosting policies and practices in Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda [3.5].
All research involved in-person surveys, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. In insecure areas (e.g. South Central Somalia) data was collected by researchers based in the localities with careful remote supervision led by Hammond. Further data was collected in analysis workshops, where preliminary research findings and recommendations were presented to stakeholder groups and then refined based on feedback.
Important findings have emerged from the Research and Evidence Facility’s research. A study on migration between the HoA and Yemen found that environmental threats tend to generate short-distance displacement rather than longer-distance movement. During the severe 2017 Horn of Africa drought, migration from the HoA to Europe and the Gulf countries increased only marginally. Many more people moved shorter distances within the region, often settling in border towns, refugee camps or in the nearest urban area [3.4].
A study of displacement in, and return to, Somalia found that the most significant need of migrants, internally displaced persons and refugee returnees to urban centres of Somalia was housing, land and property (HLP); failure to secure these basic resources blocked people’s ability to invest in education, healthcare, and other key areas, or to plan for their futures [3.2].
An assessment of the implementation of the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework in four countries (Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda) found that Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) plays an important, but often unrecognised, role in stimulating political will at the highest level and coordinating refugee hosting practices within the region, encouraging best practice leading to concrete policy improvements particularly with respect to education, jobs and livelihoods [3.5].
This body of research builds upon other work by Hammond on rural-urban migration in Somaliland, part of the 2016-18 Migrants on the Margins project (GBP1,000,000 funded by the Royal Geographical Society, ESRC-DFID and AHRC) that considered the experiences of former pastoralists displaced from their rural livelihoods into urban centres in Hargeisa, Somaliland. Here, too, securing land and property was a prerequisite to comprehensive integration into the city.
3. References to the research
3.1 Hammond, Laura (2019): ”Livelihoods and Mobility in the Border Regions of Ethiopia”. In: Cheru, Fantu and Cramer, Christopher and Oqubay, Arkebe, (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 269-287. Available on request. peer-reviewed
3.2 Sturridge, Caitlin and Bakewell, Oliver and Hammond, Laura (2018): “ Return and (Re)Integration after Displacement: Belonging, Labeling and Livelihoods in Three Somali Cities”. London: Research and Evidence Facility (REF): EU Trust Fund for Africa https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/30923/ peer and stakeholder reviewed
3.3 Hammond, Laura. (2017) “Livelihoods and Mobility in the Border Regions of the Horn of Africa,” in World Bank, From Isolation to Integration: The Borderlands of the Horn of Africa, Washington: The World Bank, pp. 27-68. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33513 peer-reviewed
3.4 Sturridge, Caitlin and Bakewell, Oliver and Hammond, Laura (2018): “ Migration Between the Horn of Africa and Yemen: A Study of Puntland, Djibouti and Yemen” - EU Trust Fund for Africa (Horn of Africa Window) Research and Evidence Facility (REF) https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/30924/ peer and stakeholder reviewed
3.5 Hammond, L.; Sturridge, C.; Sebba, K.R.; Owiso, M.; Mahdi, M.; Manji, F. and Osman, A.A. (2020): “ Comprehensive Refugee Responses in the Horn of Africa: Regional Leadership on Education, Livelihoods and Durable Solutions.’ 2020 https://www.soas.ac.uk/ref-hornresearch/research-papers/file144905.pd peer-reviewed
3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5 were all peer reviewed. All outputs are based on original empirical research and were reviewed by EU and/or user stakeholders prior to final publication. All Research and Evidence Facility reports were commended in an independent review conducted by Dr Jeff Crisp Research Associate at the Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House.
4. Details of the impact
The work of the Facility led by Hammond has improved the design and delivery of EU-funded migration and displacement programmes in the HoA. Research recommendations have shaped projects by intergovernmental organisations and donors related to development of borderlands, support for displaced persons in urban areas, and reintegration support for internally displaced persons and repatriated refugees. This work has led to regional approaches that promote social cohesion between migrant and displaced populations and their hosts, and create economic opportunities for mobile populations. Hammond’s related research on rural-urban migration has also led to award-winning secondary school teaching resources in the UK, developed with the Royal Geographical Society. A film commissioned by Hammond with film makers PositiveNegatives on migration in the HoA (“Life on the Move”) won the 2019 Research in Film Award (Social Media Category) [5.10e].
To maximize research uptake, the Facility pursued an innovative programme of ‘front-loaded advocacy,’ collaborating from the inception of the research with EU Trust Fund (EUTF) contributing states, EU delegations, governments in the region and NGOs. These actors have contributed to project design, framing of recommendations, and public briefing events including a major conference in Nairobi in 2019 (140 participants from the research, governmental, nongovernmental, and diplomatic communities) based on the Facility’s research. This collaboration has ensured receptivity to the research findings and maximized possibilities for uptake of recommendations.
Facility research was directly used as evidence in the design of key EUTF investments: 1) a EUR63,500,000 project to promote cross-border development collaboration in the HoA [5.1] and 2) a EUR3,000,000 project to support IGAD’s role in coordinating a regional approach to refugee management and protection. EUTF Manager Hans Stausboll stated that EU support to IGAD was “a result of this research” and that the research had “stimulated [IGAD’s] Member States into adopting remarkable policy commitments in favour of refugees particularly in the areas of education, health and livelihood.” [5.2]
Under Prof Hammond’s leadership, the Facility’s high profile advocacy work has influenced policy and practice on displacement. Prof Hammond was invited by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to moderate two plenary sessions at the first Global Refugee Forum (December 2019), one on Regional Responses to Refugee Hosting, the other on Durable Solutions. The Forum, attended by more than 3,000 participants, included heads of state, ministers, ambassadors and heads of international UN and nongovernmental organisations. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi acknowledged Hammond’s contribution to the success of the event in identifying solutions and comprehensive responses in action both as “moderator during high-level sessions” and for the “insights [Hammond] brought to the discussion” [5.3]. The Forum raised over 840 pledges for refugee support including job creation and education schemes, and the development of clean energy and infrastructure [5.3].
UNHCR’s Special Envoy for Africa, Ambassador Mohamed Affey, commended the Facility’s work by saying, “We’ve been very impressed by the reports that we have received regarding the return of the population of the Somalis who have been living in the refugee camps for many years. That research and the report that was generated as a result of the research that was done have been of use to me as a Special Envoy in my advocacy work” [5.4 time code: 00:01:33 – 00:01:50].
In December 2018, Hammond was invited to give written and oral evidence to the International Development Committee of the UK House of Commons enquiry on Refugees in East Africa. She argued that 1) post-Brexit, the UK’s continued support for displaced populations in East Africa was crucial; 2) migration within Africa is an essential livelihood strategy for maximizing resources and minimizing risk; 3) the right to safe mobility should be protected alongside efforts to prevent displacement and irregular migration; 4) asylum seekers in the UK should be allowed to work while they await a decision on their cases; and 5) there should be a more joined-up approach to supporting refugees in the UK and in regions of origin. These points were all included in the committee’s final report ‘Forced Displacement in Africa: Anchors Not Walls, where Hammond’s evidence was cited nine times [5.5]. As of 2020, work on several of these points was being implemented, including 1, 2 and 5 by the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office.
In the region, the work of the Facility has influenced debates and policies of information-based NGOs such as the Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat (ReDSS). Secretariat Manager of ReDss, Aude Galli stated the report on Return and (Re)integration after Displacement [3.2] “has concretely informed a number of durable solutions programing in Somalia, but also donors[‘] priorities and focus.” Galli also commended the Facility for “providing a platform bringing practitioners, policy- makers and researchers together to discuss the implications and recommendations from the research findings to inform and adapt our policy and programing work.” [5.6]
Responding to the Facility’s recommendation that IDPs and returnees need secure land tenure and should be integrated into local development plans, the Municipality of Baidoa in Somalia relocated 100 returnee families onto permanent plots in 2019, giving them secure tenure [5.7, pg 4]. Prof Hammond was also asked to advise on the drafting of Somalia’s National Policy on Refugees, Returnees and Displaced Persons; all 12 of her major recommendations were adopted into the final enacted policy in 2019 [5.8], including providing legal support to displaced people, extending protection to include social and economic vulnerability and extending food assistance to returnees for a full year after return.
Hammond’s related research on rural-urban migration was used to develop a suite of award-winning teaching materials for secondary school students in collaboration with the Royal Geographical Society. These included a 2019 Teach Company award (curriculum impact category), Scottish Association of Geography Teachers Overall Winner [5.9a] and finalist for the 2020 BETT awards [5.9b]. The film’ Life on the move’ produced in partnership with PositiveNegatives was awarded the 2019 AHRC Research in Film Award for ‘Best Social Media Short’ [5.9c and d]. The teaching materials included two posters on urban migration distributed to every secondary school (5500 schools) in England and Wales, teaching videos featuring lectures by Hammond and other project researchers, 2,500 copies of comics produced by partners PositiveNegatives, and infographics [5.10a]. The project also hosted two public exhibitions (October and December 2018 – 969 attendees), a major Fellows’ lecture at the Royal Geographical Society (Oct 2018, 441 attendees, 171 online views) [5.10b] Student attendees to the exhibition, which was paired with a workshop on the themes covered, praised the way that the human migration stories were presented. Two students from Westminster Academy said, ‘The exhibition was really good and eye-opening to social issues we may not think about on a daily basis. Enables students to reflect on global issues’ [5.10c, p6]. Another student said that the exhibition ‘helped me decide whether to do Geography’ [at A-level] [5.10c, p3].
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1. European Union Emergency Trust Fund for Africa. Action Fiche: Collaboration in Cross-Border Areas of the Horn of Africa Region – Phase I, Sept. 2016
5.2. Letter from Hans Christian Stausboll, EU Trust Fund Manager (HoA Window) Jan. 2021.
5.3 Letter from UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi, Jan 2020
5.4 Research and Evidence Facility of the EU Trust Fund – SOAS, YouTube: https://youtu.be/Smdg88xEP7s Ambassador Mohamed Affey, UN Special Envoy for Displacement in the Horn of Africa [00:01:33 – 00:01:50]
5.5 International Development Committee Forced Displacement in Africa: “Anchors not Walls” - 5 March 2019 (Hammond’s testimony cited 9 times – see a) Chapter 2, paras 31, 34 and; b) Chapter 3, paras 94, 96 102, 107, and Chapter 3 notes 143, 145, 150, 156 and; c) Chapter 5, para 132, 133 and chapter 5 note 193)
5.6 Letter from Aude Galli, Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat, Jan 2021.
5.7 Research and Evidence Facility (REF). July 2020. ‘Baidoa Municipality initiatives on population displacement and urbanisation: key lessons learned and the way forward’. London: EU Trust Fund for Africa (Horn of Africa Window) Research and Evidence Facility.
5.8 Influencing policy in Somalia
a) Draft of Federal Government of Somalia, National Policy on Refugee-Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons, with 12 recommendations supplied by Hammond which were included in
b) the final policy, adopted in December 2019.
5.9 Awards for teaching resources developed by the Royal Geographical Society based on Migrants on the Margins research:
a) 4* award for ‘Curriculum Impact’ category of the Teach Secondary Awards and the Scottish Association of Geography Teachers ‘Overall Winner’ and
b) Finalist in the 2020 BETT awards in the Free Digital Content or Open Educational Resources category and
c) Film (2019) ‘Life on the Move’, co-created with PositiveNegatives. https://youtu.be/D0SECJeSigw awarded AHRC Research in Film Awards (RIFA) 2019 winner of Social Media Category: https://ahrc.ukri.org/innovation/research-in-film-awards/previous-winners/2019-winners/
5.10 Impact via partnership with Royal Geographical Society (RSG)
a) Email from RGS Secretary confirming distribution of posters and comics to schools and
b) Email from RGS confirming attendees at RGS exhibitions in October and December 2018;
c) Student quotes from attendees to the RGS workshop.
- Submitting institution
- School of Oriental and African Studies
- Unit of assessment
- 22 - Anthropology and Development Studies : B - 22B Development Studies
- Summary impact type
- Economic
- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
Research conducted at SOAS is the first systematic analysis of the link between climate vulnerability and the cost of capital in developing countries. Based on this research, the Ministers of Finance of the Vulnerable Twenty Group of climate-vulnerable developing countries (V20) planned and launched new financial instruments in collaboration with international partners to address this problem. The V20 Ministers of Finance agreed with the International Monetary Fund to work on a V20-IMF Joint Action Agenda and invited SOAS to write a background paper. The research also had impact on various international financial institutions including the World Bank, where it contributed to the development of a “Sovereign ESG Data Portal” to encourage and facilitate further analysis and improved data quality in this field.
2. Underpinning research
Climate-vulnerable developing countries are most exposed to the physical impacts of climate change, including an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms, droughts, floods, and heat waves, as well as chronic impacts, such as worsening water stress or a sea-level rise. These countries also tend to lack the financial resources to mitigate risks and adapt to climate change by investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and other resilience-enhancing measures.
Research conducted at SOAS between 2017 and 2019 represents the first systematic analysis of the relationship between climate vulnerability and the cost of capital in developing countries. The initial research [3.1] was conducted in 2017-2018 by an interdisciplinary team comprising Prof Gerhard Kling (Professor of International Business and Management at SOAS until August 2019), Prof Victor Murinde (AXA Professor in Global Finance) and Dr Ulrich Volz (Reader in Economics) together with Yuen Lo (MSc student and RA in 2018). A report based on this research was launched in London [3.2] by SOAS, Imperial College and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). To investigate the impact of climate vulnerability on sovereign bond yields, the research by SOAS applied econometric analysis using measures of climate vulnerability and social preparedness for the impacts of climate change along with a series of macroeconomic control variables. The sample analysed comprised 46 countries, including 25 members of the V20 group of climate vulnerable countries, over the period 1996-2016. The research found that the incremental debt cost due to higher climate vulnerability, for the V20 countries, exceeded USD 62 billion over this period. The research also found that a lack of social readiness, which includes education and infrastructure, has a negative and significant effect on bond yields, implying that social and physical investments can mitigate climate risk-related debt costs and help to stabilise the cost of debt for vulnerable countries. The research hence recommended greater investment in climate resilience in vulnerable countries. It also highlighted ways in which international cooperative efforts to measure, monitor, and transfer climate risks will provide an opportunity to prevent a deterioration of sovereign borrowing capacity in affected countries. Bob Buhr, Charles Donovan and Natalie Pullin from Imperial College contributed the country case studies to this report. The framing was developed jointly by SOAS and Imperial College.
Follow-up research conducted in 2019 by Kling, Volz, Murinde and Sibel Ayas (Visiting Researcher at SOAS in 2019) showed that the cost of capital problem also extends to businesses in vulnerable developing countries [3.3]. In particular, it investigated the effect of climate-related risks on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance both theoretically and empirically. First, the paper developed a theoretical model that shows how climate vulnerability could affect firms’ cost of capital and access to finance. Second, the paper examined this issue econometrically, using panel data of 15,265 firms in 71 countries over the period 1999-2017. The research showed that on average the cost of corporate debt in high-risk countries is 0.68 percentage points higher than in low-risk countries because of climate vulnerability. The research hence highlighted the urgency of scaling up investments in adaptation that can mitigate vulnerability risks and demonstrated that climate-vulnerable developing economies need international support through innovative risk transfer mechanisms that would facilitate private and public investments.
This has led to further policy-oriented research, externally funded by the International Network for Sustainable Financial Policy Insights, Research, and Exchange (INSPIRE) (2019-2020, USD 30,000, GBP21,768) [3.4, 3.5] by Volz and Jeanne Stampe (Senior Fellow at the SOAS Centre for Sustainable Finance) co-authored by interlocutors at the Asian Development Bank Institute (John Beirne, Nuobu Renzhi), risk data firm Four Twenty Seven (Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme, Emilie Mazzacurati) and WWF Singapore (Adrian Fenton) to further develop the understanding of the macrofinancial impacts of climate change on vulnerable countries, and develop policy recommendations. It also led to commissioned research jointly undertaken with the V20 Secretariat (Sara James Ahmed) to develop proposals for how the IMF can support V20 countries [3.6].
3. References to the research
3.1. Kling, Gerhard, Yuen Lo, Victor Murinde, and Ulrich Volz (2018), “Climate Vulnerability and the Cost of Debt”, Centre for Global Finance Working Paper No.12, London: SOAS University of London. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3198093 14 citations on Google Scholar as of 31 Dec 2020, excluding self-citations
3.2. Buhr, Bob, Ulrich Volz, Charles Donovan, Gerhard Kling, Yuen Lo, Victor Murinde, and Natalie Pullin (2018), Climate Change and the Cost of Capital in Developing Countries, London and Geneva: Imperial College London; SOAS University of London; UN Environment. URL: http://unepinquiry.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Climate_Change_and_the_Cost_of_Capital_in_Developing_Countries.pdf Policy report cited widely as a reference for further research beyond SOAS
3.3. Kling, Gerhard, Ulrich Volz, Victor Murinde, and Sibel Ayas (2020), “The Impact of Climate Vulnerability on Firms’ Cost of Capital and Access to Finance”, World Development 137 article no 105131. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105131 Peer-reviewed
3.4 Volz, Ulrich, John Beirne, Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme, Adrian Fenton, Emilie Mazzacurati, Nuobu Renzhi, and Jeanne Stampe (2020), Climate Change and Sovereign Risk. London, Tokyo, Singapore; and Berkeley, CA: SOAS University of London; Asian Development Bank Institute; WWF Singapore; and 427. URL: https://doi.org/10.25501/SOAS.00033524 Follow-up research funded by INSPIRE
3.5 Beirne, John, Nuobu Renzhi, and Ulrich Volz (2020), “Feeling the Heat: Climate Risks and the Cost of Sovereign Borrowing”, ADBI Working Paper No. 1160, Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/feeling-heat-climate-risks-cost-sovereign-borrowing Follow-up research funded by INSPIRE
3.6 Volz, Ulrich, and Sara James Ahmed (2020), “ Macrofinancial Risks in Climate Vulnerable Developing Countries and the Role of the IMF. Towards a Joint V20-IMF Action Agenda”, London, Rotterdam, and Bonn: SOAS University of London, Global Center on Adaptation, and Munich Climate Insurance Initiative. URL: https://climate-insurance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Macrofinancial-Risks-in-Climate-Vulnerable-Developing-Countries-and-the-Role-of-the-IMF_Towards-a-Joint-V20-IMF-Action-Agenda.pdf Follow-up research with and for the V20 to support the development of a V20-IMF Joint Action Agenda
4. Details of the impact
The research led to 1) direct policy actions by the Ministers of Finance of the Vulnerable Twenty Group (V20) of 48 climate-vulnerable developing countries that are home to 1.2 billion people. It also 2) influenced the work of several international financial organisations; 3) led the UK government to commission a study on the role of climate risk transparency in preparation of COP26, and 4) led to an award of funding by a research network aiming to support central banks and supervisors in their work to manage climate risk and mobilise finance to support the transition to a sustainable economy through innovative research. 5) the research was picked up by a wide range of international media and thereby contributed to raising awareness of the problem in business, finance, civil society and public policy.
The initial research [3.1, 3.2] was commissioned by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in collaboration with the V20. The resulting policy report was launched in London on 2 July 2018. The report’s findings were referred to in a Ministerial Communique after a meeting of the V20 Ministers of Finance at the Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF in October 2018. Urging states to act fast, the Communique states: “According to a July 2018 UNEP-mandated report, developed further to the V20 Ministers’ focus on the development policy consequences of green financing, climate change risks could severely penalize V20 economies with 1 dollar of additional costs due to climate vulnerability for every 10 dollars paid in interest. That penalty will double within the coming decade due to rising climate risks with concrete negative consequences for our growth and development prospects.” [5.1 p1].
Volz was subsequently invited to present the report’s findings to a meeting of the V20 Finance Ministers at the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) in Katowice in December 2018. The V20 Finance Ministers further discussed the report’s policy implications at a Ministerial Dialogue at the Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF in April 2019. The press release makes direct reference to the research findings on the cost of climate vulnerability: “In the last ten years, climate vulnerability has cost V20 countries an additional US$62 billion in interest payments alone, […] reducing countries’ ability to invest in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.” [5.2 p1]. and announced in a press release that they would launch new financial instruments. In response to the problem identified in the research, the V20 press release announced an ambitious programme of new financial instruments, in collaboration with international partners such as the World Bank and other multilateral development banks (MDBs). Proposals include an “Accelerated Financing Mechanism (AFM) for Maximal Resilience & a 100% Renewable Energy Transition to upscale existing risk mitigation tools, guarantees and blended finance facilities” in addition to “a new menu of instruments within MDBs and other development banks for adaptation, resilience and renewable energy projects.” [5.2 p2]. Such instruments would ensure continued global economic growth in the face of increasing threats from climate change. Work by the V20 on the AFM is still ongoing, and in 2020, the V20 Secretariat commissioned a concept update paper for the AFM, again with reference to the project’s research.
The Ministerial Brief of the same meeting also refers to the cost of capital problem identified by the research: “A new financing mechanism proposed for access by V20 members facing capital challenges with adaptation and mitigation projects serving V20 goals that are inhibited by higher relative costs of capital due to interest rates and debt maturity/tenures.” [5.3 p1]. Moreover, the V20 Ministers agreed on Workplan Priorities including “Address high costs of capital and mismatch of loan maturities to enable more private & public climate investments” and “Follow-up work on UNEP report on climate risk implications for cost of capital (V20 Regional Consultations in 2019-20)”. [5.4].
To translate these workplan priorities into action, during New York Climate Week in September 2019, the V20 announced the launch of a Sustainable Insurance Facility to protect micro, small and medium-sized enterprises in vulnerable economies. In the announcement, the V20 referred again explicitly to our research findings [5.5 p5]. The research also contributed to a dialogue between the V20 and the IMF. In May 2020, the V20 Secretariat commissioned Volz to lead a study for the V20 to support the development of a V20-IMF Joint Action Agenda on Transition Risks and Climate-related Financial and Fiscal Stability [3.7].
The research has influenced the work of several international financial organisations in this area. Notably, the research instigated follow-up research at the World Bank Group on how climate and environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors are incorporated into both credit rating agencies’ scoring and ESG index composition. Specifically, it informed the World Bank’s methodology for looking into how natural capital wealth is incorporated into sovereign bond pricing. It contributed to the development of a Sovereign ESG Data Portal launched by the World Bank in October 2019 to encourage and facilitate further analysis and improve data quality in this field [5.6]. It also led to work by the World Bank on a proposal for a “TCFD for Sovereigns”, analogous to the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate Related Disclosures (TCFD) [5.7]. Building on the SOAS research, the Interamerican Development Bank (IDB) conducted internal analysis on the impact of climate risk on the cost of capital with a focus on Latin American and Caribbean countries. The research also led the IDB to consider how to integrate climate change into its risk analysis framework and “prompted a preliminary investigation on the IDB credit rating to its sovereign exposure in the region.” [5.8]. The research also influenced the work of international bodies such as the Global Commission on Adaptation, where it “reinforced [an] emphasis on the urgent need to strengthen the capacities of finance ministries and central banks in mitigating and managing macro-fiscal and financial sector risks related to climate change” [5.9].
In response to the research findings, in May 2020 the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID, now Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, FCDO) commissioned a study by Climate Finance Advisors, Benefit LLC on Understanding the Role of Climate Risk Transparency on Capital Pricing for Developing Countries [5.10a, 5.10c]. With this, DFID tried to obtain a better understanding of how greater transparency around climate risks may affect the cost of capital in climate vulnerable countries, the problem identified in our research. The study was also intended to help inform the UK government’s policies aimed at improving the framework conditions for scaling up private financing for adaptation and mitigation in vulnerable countries, in preparation of the 26th UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) on Climate Change. DFID invited Volz to join an Expert Review Panel to advise on this study. The COP26 and its preparations were delayed by a year as a result of COVID-19 and will now take place in November 2021 [5.10b]. The project’s research is cited in the preparatory report, which was published in November 2020 [5.10c, pp11, 22].
The initial research [3.1, 3.2, 3.3] led to the award of peer-reviewed funding in May 2019 by the International Network for Sustainable Financial Policy Insights, Research and Exchange (INSPIRE), an independent research network hosted by the ClimateWorks Foundation and the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, established to support the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) in its work to manage climate risk and mobilise finance to support the transition to a sustainable economy through research. The new research [3.4, 3.5] was conducted by Volz and research partners at the Asian Development Bank Institute, WWF Singapore, and 427 in 2019-2020. The report, which included a chapter on macrofinancial risk in the ten countries forming the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its policy recommendations were endorsed in a foreword by the Deputy Secretary General of ASEAN [3.4]. The report [3.4] was originally scheduled to be launched at the Annual Conference of the NGFS hosted by the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok in April 2020. Due to COVID-19, the conference had to be cancelled and the launch was delayed until the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in October 2020.
The research findings were widely reported on in the media, generating almost 60 pieces of global coverage, including by The Economist [5.11 pp1-3], the Financial Times [5.11 p4], Reuters [5.11 pp5-6], and UN Climate Change News [5.11 pp7-8]. This contributed to rising awareness of the problem in business, finance, civil society and public policy, but also highlighted the potential for virtuous circles: that low cost or affordable borrowing by vulnerable countries to invest in climate adaptation will “help bring down the cost of their borrowing” [5.11 p6].
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1. Ministerial Communique of the V20 Ministers of Finance at the Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund in Nusa Dua, Bali, 14 October 2018 (“4th V20 Ministerial Communique – Bali”) https://www.v-20.org/4th-v20-ministerial-communique-bali/
5.2. Press Release of the V20 Finance Ministers at the Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, 11 April 2019 (“Vulnerable countries and international partners announce collaboration to climate – proof economic growth”).
5.3. Ministerial Brief of the V20 Finance Ministers at the Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, 11 April 2019.
5.4. ‘Snapshot of V20 Workplan Priorities’, Washington DC, 11 April 2019.
5.5. Press Release of the V20 Finance Ministers at New York Climate Week, New York City, 24 September 2019 (“Vulnerable countries to insure MSMEs amidst worsening climate disasters”).
5.6. World Bank Press Release, “World Bank Launches Sovereign ESG Data Portal”, 29 October 2019. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/10/29/world-bank-launches-sovereign-esg-data-portal
5.7. Letter from the World Bank Group
5.8. Letter from the Inter-American Development Bank
5.9. Letter from the Global Commission on Adaptation
5.10. Impact on UK government as host of COP26; a) DFID Terms of Reference – Understanding the implications of increasing transparency and disclosure of climate risks on the cost of capital to developing countries; b) UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 26) - SDG Knowledge Hub: https://sdg.iisd.org/events/2020-un-climate-change-conference-unfccc-cop-26/; c)Climate Finance Advisors, Benefit LLC (2020), Understanding the Role of Climate Risk Transparency on Capital Pricing for Developing Countries. Findings Report, Climate Finance Advisors, Benefit LLC: Washington, DC.
5.11. Consolidated report on media coverage (2018-2019), including coverage by the Financial Times, Reuters, Forbes, The Economist, as well as UNFCC and the SDG Knowledge Hub.
- Submitting institution
- School of Oriental and African Studies
- Unit of assessment
- 22 - Anthropology and Development Studies : B - 22B Development Studies
- Summary impact type
- Societal
- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
SOAS-led research commissioned by the UK Government’s Stabilisation Unit played an instrumental role in re-shaping the UK Government’s approach to reducing violence and promoting sustainable post-war transitions in conflict-affected countries. The research underpinned the 2018 ‘UK Government’s Approach to Stabilisation’, which set out guidelines for the UK Government’s efforts to stabilise violent conflict across the world. Offering analytical tools to be used by policy makers and practitioners working on conflict transitions, the research informed UK Government strategic planning in countries such as Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Mali and Somalia; it also influenced peace-building NGOs and UK Government staff training.
2. Underpinning research
Approximately two billion people live in parts of the world affected by violent conflict and fragility. In light of this challenge, the UK Government has recognised the need to deliver more effective interventions in conflict contexts. Conflict resolution and peacebuilding have become key components of international interventions in conflict-affected states. In the UK, this has been reflected by the 2015 UK Aid Strategy and the UK Government’s commitment to allocate at least 50% of DFID’s budget to fragile states. However, understanding of what works has been limited and partial. Many violent conflicts remain intractable, new conflicts continue to erupt, and violence and instability regularly recur even in countries where international donors have invested heavily in trying to engineer peace.
Research on war-to-peace transitions has been carried out at SOAS since 2001, when Dr Jonathan Goodhand took up a University Lectureship (promoted to a Professorship in 2014). Goodhand has a long track record of research and teaching on war to peace transitions and has worked closely with Dr Patrick Meehan since 2012 (PhD 2012–2016; Postdoctoral Research Fellow and Co-investigator since 2017). In 2016, the UK Government Stabilisation Unit (SU) commissioned Goodhand, Meehan and Dr Christine Cheng (King’s College London) to conduct research under the ‘Elite Bargains and Political Deals’ (EBPD) project to inform UK and international policy and practice on reducing levels of armed conflict and building sustainable post-war transitions. The resulting report [3.1] provided a more robust evidence base for the UK’s approach to stabilisation and to guide policy makers in delivering more effective interventions in conflict contexts. Goodhand provided overall intellectual leadership for this report and Meehan developed much of the report’s analytical framework in the initial literature review [3.2] he wrote to guide the EBPD project.
Three areas of the research findings have been particularly influential in informing the work commissioned by the SU. These include:
Goodhand’s and Meehan’s research has emphasised the centrality of power relations and elite bargains (discrete agreements that re-negotiate the distribution of power and allocation of resources between elites) to understanding the dynamics of armed conflict and war-to-peace transitions [3.3, 3.4, 3.5 3.6]. This research – some aspects of which have been augmented with co-authored policy-oriented analysis with Dr Mark Sedra (the Centre for International Governance Innovation) [3.6] and the role of war economies in reconstruction with Professor Christopher Cramer (SOAS) [3.5] – highlights the need to focus more explicitly on how power is organised in society. This is crucial in order to understand (and address) drivers of violent conflict. Rather than a technical focus on the design of peacebuilding interventions, the research demonstrates that any intervention will be shaped by power relations and political interests and must be resilient to these pressures [3.2].
The research has demonstrated that transitions from war to peace are shaped by the interaction between three dynamics: (1) the underlying distribution of power – or political settlement – on which a society is based; (2) elite bargains; and (3) formal peace agreements [3.1, 3.2]. The research provides an analytical framework for policy makers and practitioners to assess the multiple dynamics shaping the contexts in which they work [3.1].
The research provides a clear explanatory framework to show that where externally-driven peace processes do not reflect the underlying distribution of power, the foundations for war-to-peace transitions will be highly unstable and the risk of renewed violence will be high. This concept of (mis)alignment has important policy implications for understanding why external interventions in different contexts have played a role in further destabilising armed conflicts, consolidating pre-existing power structures, or facilitating more transformative and inclusive post-war societies [3.1].
3. References to the research
3.1. Cheng, C., Goodhand, J. and Meehan, P. (2018). ‘ Synthesis Paper: Securing and Sustaining Elite Bargains that Reduce Violent Conflict’. UK Government Stabilisation Unit. London. https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/30510/ Peer-reviewed 87-page report
3.2. Meehan, P. (2018). ‘ What are the key factors that affect the securing and sustaining of an initial deal to reduce levels of armed conflict?’ London: UK Government Stabilisation Unit. https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/30509/ Peer-reviewed academic analysis piece
3.3. Meehan, P. (2011). ‘Drugs, Insurgency and State-Building in Burma: Why the Drugs Trade is Central to Burma’s Changing Political Order’. Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, 42(3), pp. 376–404. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022463411000336 Peer-reviewed
3.4. Goodhand, J. (2008). ‘Corrupting or Consolidating the Peace? The Drugs Economy and Post-conflict Peacebuilding in Afghanistan’. International Peacekeeping, 15(3), pp. 405–423. https://doi.org/10.1080/13533310802058984 Peer-reviewed
3.5. Cramer, C. and Goodhand, J. (2002). ‘Try Again, Fail Again, Fail Better? War, the State, and the “Post-Conflict” Challenge in Afghanistan’. Development and Change, 33(5), pp. 885–909. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-7660.t01-1-00253 Peer-reviewed
3.6. Goodhand, J. and Sedra, M. (2013). ‘Rethinking Liberal Peacebuilding, Statebuilding and Transition in Afghanistan: An Introduction’. Central Asia Survey, 32(3), pp. 239–254. https://doi.org/10.1080/02634937.2013.850769 Peer-reviewed
4. Details of the impact
The work of Professor Goodhand and Dr Meehan in the EBPD research project provided a strong evidence base and a set of analytical frameworks that informed the shaping of the new UK Government policy approach to support stabilisation as well as country-level strategic decision-making for UK Government interventions in conflict-affected contexts. The research also influenced the work of peacebuilding agencies such as the NGO Conciliation Resources and was embedded in the training of UK Government staff in various departments such as the (former) Department for International Development (DFID) and Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), and the Ministry of Defence (MoD).
The research was fundamental in shaping the 2018 UK Government’s Approach to Stabilisation: A guide for policy makers and practitioners [5.1]. The Minister of State for International Development, Rt Hon. Alistair Burt MP, endorsed these guidelines as setting out the UK Government’s ‘latest thinking on how the UK sees the role of stabilisation in conflict-affected contexts’ [5.2 p2], acknowledging their importance for responding to the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq and the findings of the Iraq Inquiry. Recalling one of **[3.1]**’s key findings, Rt Hon. Burt stated that ‘understanding conflict and ending violence requires a total focus on the politics and the power holders at play’ and praised the centrality of this work to set the conditions for more sustainable transitions out of conflict [5.2 p4].
The guidelines drew heavily upon the terminology, concepts, analytical framework and core arguments developed in the research [3.1, 3.2]. This included an explicit need to acknowledge and confront the difficult policy trade-offs that exist between efforts to stabilise violent conflict in the short-term, and efforts to provide the foundations for longer-term stability and inclusive development [5.1 pp5, 9, 11, 49, 58–59, 85, 87, 92]. It also included the need to think and work politically and to acknowledge the centrality of elite bargaining processes to the dynamics of violent conflict and stabilisation [5.1 pp27, 38, 87–107]. Other core arguments used included the danger that externally-driven peace agreements and reforms can be destabilising if they misalign with the underlying distribution of power in conflict-affected contexts [5.1 pp8–9, 20, 29, 65, 87, 92]; and the destabilising impact of large-scale militarised interventions [5.1 pp9, 61, 65].
The guidelines explicitly cited Goodhand, Meehan and Cheng’s research [3.1] as providing ‘helpful analytical frameworks for analysts and policy makers’ working in conflict contexts as well as a fundamental evidence base [5.1 p90]. The research underscored the guidelines’ foundational stabilisation principles [5.1 pp9 and 89] and was cited as a tool for approaches to political deal-making [5.1 pp92, 94 and 97]. Rt Hon. Alistair Burt MP also expressed being ‘especially pleased to see the development of a strong evidence base to underpin the Guide . . . and the collaborative and engaged way my team have sought advice and input from experts outside government’ [5.3 p2]. As noted in the written supporting statement by Ed Hadley, Conflict and Stabilisation Advisor, it is rare for academic research to translate so directly into policy, and the project ‘stands as a shining example of academic/government engagement and interaction’ [5.4 p2]. The research also had a positive impact on strengthening the reputation of the Stabilisation Unit. The 2018 Annual Qualitative Assessment of HMG [Her Majesty’s Government]’s Stabilisation Unit described the SU’s Lessons Team as a ‘key HMG thought leader on current stabilisation’, explicitly citing the EBPD project as a ‘good example’ of this [5.5 p6], and also indicating that the project had been ‘well-received by SU stakeholders’ [5.5 p3].The report also attained significant media attention in the UK and internationally; for example, it received deep coverage by The Guardian [5.6] as well as foreign press [5.7].
Through its impact on shaping the ‘UK Approach’ to Stabilisation, Cheng, Goodhand and Meehan’s work also influenced UK Government strategies and interventions in conflict-affected contexts. The SU conducted a careful internal monitoring of research uptake from the EBPD project. As reported by Ed Hadley, the framework for analysing elite bargaining in conflict contexts [3.1, 3.2] underpinned Joint Analysis of Conflict and Stability (JACS) reports conducted by the SU in Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Mali and Somalia [5.4 p1]. The JACS is a strategic assessment used to underpin UK National Security Council Strategies. Furthermore, [5.1] underpinned the UK Government’s new stabilisation strategy in Libya and Syria [5.4 p1]. Ed Hadley also noted that in countries such as Mali and Yemen the core principles of [5.1] guided discussions between Senior SU Advisors implementing partners delivering programmes, providing a realistic framework for UK Government engagement in-country [5.4 p2]. Had this not occurred, he stated, there was a clear risk that unrealistic and apolitical programmatic interventions would have been implemented. For example, in Mali, SU advisors used the EBPD framework to engage with Adam Smith International, the implementing partner tasked with developing a stabilisation programme in Central Mali, ensuring that the framework was used as a ‘checklist’ to design interventions that were more conflict sensitive. [5.1] also shaped conflict analysis and the designing of UK Government conflict interventions in Syria, and underpinned parts of the 2020–2024 UK Government Strategy on Afghanistan [5.4 p1]. Country-level strategic government documents are classified and cannot be made available; however, Ed Hadley noted in his supporting statement that ‘the project’s robust evidence base enabled substantive challenge to existing policy and has enabled alternative policy approaches to be considered’ [5.4 p1].
In November 2016, Goodhand and Meehan were commissioned (alongside Walton at Bath University, and Plonski at Queen Mary University of London) by Conciliation Resources – an international NGO committed to stopping violent conflict and creating more peaceful societies – to produce a publication entitled ‘Borderlands and Peacebuilding’ as part of Conciliation Resources’ flagship Accord Series. Co-edited by the Senior Adviser Peace and Transition Processes and others at Conciliation Resources, it was published in November 2018 [5.9]. It played a further important role in disseminating key aspects of Goodhand and Meehan’s research on war-to-peace transitions to policy makers and practitioners working on peacebuilding, and the resulting cross-border peacebuilding concepts trialled by the NGO has received ‘positive feedback from the FCDO’ (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office) [5.10]. [5.1] was used extensively to inform the development of the Stabilisation Leaders’ Forum ‘Stabilisation principles’ and shared definition of stabilisation, cementing the UK’s reputation as a ‘thought leader’ in this area. The forum is a group made up of the Heads of over 12 stabilisation-focused organisations – including from Germany, US, Canada, France, Denmark and Sweden – referred to as government-to-government exchanges by Hadley [5.4 p2].
Goodhand and Meehan’s research also had a direct impact on the training that the UK Government provides to staff across various government departments including DFID, FCO and MoD. Indeed, between 2018 and 2020, Goodhand and Meehan developed training materials and delivered training for more than 60 government employees as part of the SU’s quarterly ‘Conflict and Stabilisation’ training course [5.4 p2, 5.8]. The SU also held briefing sessions on the EBPD report [3.1] with colleagues across government and country offices. This included sessions at the Defence Academy; in Yemen, Syria and Afghanistan; at the UK Government’s Conflict Stability and Security Fund (CSSF) Global Workshop; for the Joint Funds Unit (which administers the CSSF); and at DFID Governance and Conflict Cadre conferences. Hadley points out that ‘[a] daylong annual gathering of SU Senior Advisors focused entirely on [5.1] and its core precepts’ [5.4 p2].
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1. UK Government Stabilisation Unit, The UK Government’s Approach to Stabilisation: A guide for policy makers and practitioners, 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uk-governments-approach-to-stabilisation-a-guide-for-policy-makers-and-practitioners [pp. 5, 8–9, 11, 20, 27, 29, 38, 49, 58–59, 61, 65, 85, 87–107]
5.2. Speech - Burt, A. 2018. Deal Making and Peace Building: A new approach to reducing conflict, 14 June 2018. Chatham House, London, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/deal-making-and-peace-building-a-new-approach-to-reducing-conflict
5.3. Letter to Committees (International Development Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee and Defence Committee) from Rt Hon. Alistair Burt MP, Minister of State, on the Publication of the ‘UK Government’s Approach to Stabilisation: A Guide for Policy Makers and Practitioners’, December 2018.
5.4. Supporting statement from Ed Hadley, Conflict and Stabilisation Advisor, Lessons Team, Stabilisation Unit.
5.5. C. Swallow, A. Neaverson, V. Metcalfe-Hough and E. Laws, Annual Qualitative Assessment of HMG’s Stabilisation Unit, 5 October 2018. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/778635/FINAL_SU_AQA_Summary_and_Recommendations.pdf
5.6. Patrick Wintour, ‘Britain must strike deals with “unsavoury” elites, says FCO report’, The Guardian, 31 July 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/31/britain-must-strike-deals-with-unsavoury-elites-says-fco-report?CMP=share_btn_tw
5.7. Markus Haefliger, ‘Comeback des Realismus in der britischen Aussenpolitik’, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 9 August 2018. https://www.nzz.ch/international/comeback-des-realismus-in-der-britischen-aussenpolitik-ld.140994 (German)
5.8. UK Government Stabilisation Unit, ‘Conflict and Stabilisation Course’ Agenda 21–23 May 2018, 11–13 September 2018.
5.9. S. Plonski, Z. Yousuf, O. Walton, P. Meehan and J. Goodhand, Borderlands and peacebuilding: A view from the margins. Accord Insight 4. London: Conciliation Resources, 2018. https://www.c-r.org/downloads/CONJ6359-Accord-Insight-4-Borderlands-WEB-181030_0.pdf
5.10. Letter from Director of Research and innovation and Director of Accord, Conciliation Resources