Impact case study database

Improved financial inclusion through heightened access to cooperative and mutual microinsurance

Professor Arun’s research on risk management [R3, R4] found that policies should develop more inclusive and composite packages of microinsurance products for greater financial inclusion of the poor. Based on the originality of the research on risk management, in 2016 Professor Arun was invited to serve as the Chair of the financial inclusion committee of the International Cooperatives and Mutual Insurance Federation (ICMIF) to provide leadership to ICMIF’s efforts to improve access to microinsurance for low-income households. As a result, between 2016 and January 2019 this programme has reached over 2,000,000 low-income households, impacting roughly 10,000,000 lives who now have microinsurance where they had previously not had any insurance protection [S1].

The work of Arun in the ICMIF “5-5-5 mutual Microinsurance Strategy” [S2] has also led to the development and publication of diagnostic reports [S3, S3a, S3b, S3c] on the landscape of mutual and cooperative microinsurance in India, Kenya and the Philippines which have led to the delivery of insurance products that are most appropriate to the needs of each market. This work's primary beneficiaries are low-income households who gain access to affordable and appropriate insurance products. These products ultimately provide mitigation against the risks of these consumers’ everyday lives, and mitigates the negative impacts of adverse events, preventing the household from slipping into poverty. Secondary beneficiaries include the insurance providers – mutual microinsurance institutions – which have gained valuable insights into the design and delivery of appropriate, inclusive and composite microinsurance packages, and improved technical knowledge for greater financial inclusion. Tertiary beneficiaries include the ICMIF – the global representative body of the cooperative and mutual insurance sector – as well as the countries where the project is running, as the work helps to demonstrate their shared commitments to improving the resilience of poor people to disasters and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals [S1].

The Senior Vice-President of ICMIF states: ‘ As Chair of the Steering Group this [strategy] has resulted in impact at various stages of the project, including the development and publication of the first-of-its-kind diagnostics reports on the landscape of mutual and cooperative microinsurance in India, Kenya, Sri Lanka and the Philippines. These reports subsequently enabled ICMIF to deliver appropriate insurance products to the specific needs of the market where there were none before. Since 2016, 2 million low-income households have been covered with mutual or cooperative microinsurance as a result of the 5-5-5 Strategy, this means 10 million lives have been protected at a cost of less than one US dollar per household.’ [S1].

Changing the perspective of the gendered nature of financial behaviour

Professor Arun’s research identified that in order to improve the resilience of low-income individuals in managing their finances, there is a need for improved sequencing and innovation of financial products and financial education [R4, R5 and R6]. In India this research has been used to develop intensive gender-focused approaches in supporting start-up enterprises in Bihar and running relief camps in Kerala directly influencing the development of policy and government guidelines in both states.

1. Amending the start-up practices and policy in Bihar

In 2017, Arun organised a series of training and research workshops with the Start-up Incubation Centre of the Chandragupt Institute of Management Patna (CIMP) which drew on Arun's research [R4, R5] to encourage and support female led entrepreneurship in Bihar [S4].

Urban Kare, a government certified start-up in the State of Bihar commented: ' ...[we] benefitted from the handbooks issued during the workshop which contains theoretical and practical knowledge...Many of the entrepreneurs...also shared how the workshop has empowered them to examine the existing practices of their business.' [S5] While Bihar Mahlia Udyog Sangh Patna, an apex body of women entrepreneurs in Bihar commented that: 'BMUS have taken adequate note on the findings to promote risk-taking ability among our female entrepreneurs amidst the challenges of part-time nature of the job and work-life balancing pressures' [S6].

Based on a study of 104 start-ups in Bihar research highlighted the inconsistency in the definitions of women’s entrepreneurship between the start-up policies of the state of Bihar and India’s national policy [R4]. Consequently, the Government of Bihar agreed to revise the 2016 Start-up Policy in order to reflect the nature of women’s participation (harnessing gender capital) in start-ups, and to reform the entrepreneurship ecosystem into the policy.

Building on the workshops in 2017 CIMP Director stated: '[We]…have recommended State functionaries to revise the start-up Policy 2016 of the State of Bihar in terms of its definition for Women Entrepreneurship. With this development, the start-up policy will be in line with the Start-up India Policy. This development will ensure proper participation by female entrepreneurs in the state of Bihar.' [S4].

The research findings were discussed with Invest India (official consultants nominated from Start-up India to overlook State’s progress) in a meeting held in April 2019, in the presence of Indian Telecom Services (ITS) Director Technical, based on which these recommendations will be incorporated in the Policy Revision in 2021. These revisions will benefit the operation of the policy in practice, and also contribute substantially to the aim of attaining gender equality through entrepreneurship and start-ups.

1. Running of flood relief camps in Kerala

Natural disasters are becoming increasingly common with a cascading effect on communities and infrastructure. Research [R6] analysing the relief operations of Kerala floods was based on primary research with 921 affected inmates of relief shelters, 24 camp managers and 317 volunteers, along with rapid evaluation of secondary data. Despite many significant advances in the state for improving preparedness, response and recovery programmes for Disaster Management, the need for an effective interconnected management plan is a severe gap in policy and there is a call for ways to develop programmes to manage and mitigate multiplying risk occurrences. The UKIERI funded study found gaps in existing policies, evidenced through weaknesses in governance and institutional capacities. Arun recommended steps for a gender sensitive, inclusive relief management plan that enhances preparedness, management and transition of communities to work in tandem with authorities to alleviate the effects of recurring disasters to both the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority and the Kunnukara Panchayat. Both acknowledged that the practical and inclusive recommendations have informed the designing of gender sensitive, inclusive shelter camps in Kerala in the future [S7]. Based on Arun’s research Kunnukara Panchayat, a region that was most devastated by the floods in Kerala in 2018 has established digilockers for residents to enhance the preparedness of communities to face future disasters through safeguarding important official documents. [S8].

The Kerala Institute of Local Administration, an autonomous body constituted by the Government of Kerala states: 'suggestions made by your study team to enhance gender sensitivity and inclusiveness...will motivate local bodies to re-evaluate resilience and preparedness at the grassroots level. Specifically, the recommendations for safe and equitable relief camps that provide both voice and participation of women will add much value, given the States focus on gender mainstreaming policies and its success in gender inclusive strategies at the grassroots levels. Such ways forward will help in formulating socially inclusive disaster management policies, including harnessing the potential of all groups of women, including volunteers who have been the backbone of our community structures' [S9].

Adhikari’s research and his involvement in reform efforts, have underpinned the Nepalese public sector accounting and accountability in three key areas:

• Development and implementation of the first accounting manual.

• Standardisation of accounting through the implementation of Nepal Public Sector Accounting Standard (NPSAS).

• Capacity building to support the implementation of the manual and standard.

Development and implementation of the first accounting manual

Adhikari has been collaborating with the Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), the Ministry of Finance (MoF), Nepal, since 2001.This collaboration was further strengthened after undertaking comparative research in which Adhikari compared public sector accounting practices in Nepal with those of Russia, Norway, Sri Lanka [R1, R2], as well as with the international accounting standard [R3]. The importance of having a consistent approach to accounting practice was emphasised in his research. In 2014, the FCGO started developing the first accounting manual appointing an accounting firm, Suvod Associates. Adhikari was consulted by Suvod Associates for input and his research [R1, R2, R3] was drawn upon throughout the development of the manual [S1]. Suvod Associates confirms that Adhikari’s research was valuable ‘‘ to get insights into different aspects of Nepal’s public sector accounting, accounting requirements of the country and international best practice in public sector accounting” [S1].

The MoF states “ We are aware that your work [Adhikari’s] has also been used in the process of developing an accounting manual for government entities” [S2]. In 2016, the accounting manual was enforced in more than 4,000 public sector entities [S3]. The enforcement of the manual’s recommendations has promoted consistency in accounting practices, helping to ensure that public entities discharge the accountability of resources entrusted to them. One member of the State Assembly Kathmandu 1 (one of the 10 constituencies of the City) confirms: “ Reference to your work is consistently made during the discussion on government accounting…These works have been used in deciding on reform strategies, developing the manual for government entities and implementing Nepal Public Sector Accounting standards and has helped develop a policy of capacity building of government accountants” [S4].

Standardisation of accounting through the implementation of NPSAS

Adhikari’s research made the MoF aware of international trends in public sector accounting and identified the accounting requirements of the country [S2]. In particular, Adhikari’s research [R3; R4; R5; R6] highlighted the challenges faced by developing countries when implementing international accounting standards and emphasised the importance of following an incremental approach. The MoF states “ the research [Adhikari’s] has been used in the process of developing and piloting Nepal Public Sector Accounting Standard (NPSAS)” [S2] . In 2017 Adhikari was approached by JBRH and Co. an accounting firm assigned by the government to pilot the accounting standard [S5]. Two ministries were selected to pilot the NPSAS so as to provide sufficient time to analyse the challenges experienced in the process and arrange the required resources to extend the standard to the remaining ministries. All 42 central level agencies now prepare their consolidated financial statements using the forms recommended in the NPSAS [S6]. The standardisation of accounting practices has increased international trust in public sector accounting, as the FCGO states that international investors and development partners have started using information generated by the government rather than pursuing their own accounting system, which was an established practice previously [S2, S6].

Capacity building of government accountants

Government accountants in the past have been reluctant to embrace change due to a lack of focus on capacity building. Adhikari’s research highlighting the importance of capacity building prior to introducing reforms [R5], was used by JBRH and Co. to identify challenging areas and develop the competences of government accountants [S5]. The FCGO has used the research to develop a policy on capacity building for government accountants [S4, S4a]. During 2018-2019, 13 training sessions were offered across the country during which 448 government accountants were trained in different aspects of using the manual and the standard. The training programmes were facilitated jointly by the FCGO and JBRH and Co. [S7]. JBRH and Co. states that they have used [Adhikari’s] research “while facilitating trainings to government accountants and administrators on Nepal Public Sector Accounting Standards” [S5]. The enhanced capacity of government accountants has provided the government with the opportunity to continue its reforms, thereby contributing to further impacts. These include:

•The FCGO developed new accounting forms in 2019 [S6]

•The FCGO developed the Public Asset Management System following the accounting manual in 2020 [S8]

These reforms are aimed at further strengthening public sector accountability in Nepal [S6, S8, S9].

Co-producing guidelines and policy on disaster risk reduction in conjunction with UNDRR

Essex research [R1-R5] has had a direct impact on collaborative accountability policy towards disaster risk reduction, particularly in terms of responding to situations involving natural disasters. The research has made a unique contribution to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR formerly the UNISDR), in terms of developing the implementation guidelines for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction on the topic of “Accountability and Governance for Disaster Risk Reduction” for UN member countries [S1, S2]. Jayasinghe was the sole accounting expert in the steering committee, his research on the conceptual framework for accountability and the challenges of introducing such collaborative accountability frameworks in disaster risk reduction was drawn upon by the UNDRR [S2, S3]. His research has informed the UNDRR’s disaster risk reduction policy moving it beyond traditional top down and bottom up accountability towards a more collaborative form of accountability involving multiple disaster agencies and community organisations [S1].

In 2015 Jayasinghe jointly led a workshop on ensuring accountability in disaster risk management and reconstruction in Colombo, Sri Lanka in support of UNDRR as part of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 [S4, S5]. The workshop attended by the Chief of Section for disaster risk reduction governance and accountability at the UNDRR, informed two key documents used in the discussions at UNDRR steering committee: (i) accountability and governance concept notes [S6] and (ii) a briefing paper with recommendations based on the key outcomes and findings from the workshop [S7].

Jayasinghe was then formally invited in 2016 by the Chief of Section, disaster risk reduction governance and accountability [S8] to join the steering committee to inform the UNDRR document on Sendai framework implementation guidelines for member countries on the topic of “Accountability and Governance for Disaster Risk Reduction”. The document ‘Accountability in the Context of Disaster Risk Governance’ was subsequently formally published by the UN in 2019 [S1]. This pragmatic guide supports the implementation, follow up and review of the Sendai framework for the Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 by offering an effective implementation strategy for the member states.

The guide builds on the UN’s Sendai Framework, a roadmap for how the UN can make their communities safer and more resilient to disasters, and Jayasinghe brought unique insights to this report through his research in accounting and accountability [S1]. Specifically, Jayasinghe’s research [R5] informed the conceptual chapters on accountability and the conceptual challenges of accountability in disaster risk reduction [S1, chapters 3,4,5]. For instance, the key terms and definitions of accountability in the context of disaster risk governance highlight that “The accountability in the context of good governance was one of the important tools used by the World Bank in its international development programs and discourses. The intention of these accountability mechanisms and related rational accounting rhetoric was to empower the vulnerable communities and enabling them to participate in decision-making, local accountability and performance evaluation of key stakeholders” [S1, chapter 3, p. 12].

This guidance has two implications for disaster policy. First, it feeds into the UNDRR advocacy group on disaster risk reduction governance and accountability enabling them to understand accountability challenges. Second, the report was commissioned and published by the UN as a publicly available document for its member countries, to use as a policy guide for national level policy formulation and implementation in relation to disaster risk reduction governance and accountability [S1]. For example, the materials from this UNDRR Words into Action Report: “The Accountability in the Context of Disaster Risk Governance” [S1] have already been used by the Royal Commission into Natural Disaster Arrangements in their committee document published on 28th October 2020 (the Royal Commission was established by the Australian Government on 20 February 2020 in response to the extreme bushfire season of 2019-2020, which resulted in devastating loss of life, property and wildlife, and environmental destruction across the nation). In Chapter 24 Assurance and Accountability (Endnote 24.6 p. 503), the commission cited the UNDRR report to stress the Australian state’s primary responsibility to ensure the public’s safety and awareness of risks, and to prevent and reduce disaster risks [S9].

Informing policy on disaster accountability mechanisms in Sri Lanka

Jayasinghe’s research [R1-R5] led to direct involvement with the Sri Lankan Government through the Ministry of Defence Disaster Management Centre for Safer Communities and Sustainable Development (DMC) [S5]. The leading agency for disaster management in Sri Lanka, the DMC implements and coordinates national and sub-national level programmes for reducing the risk of disasters nationally. Professor Jayasinghe research has informed policy and builds a more collaborative approach to disaster risk accountability at central and local levels.

The Director of the Disaster Management Centre in Sri Lanka states: ‘Among the main activities of the DMC are research and development, mitigation and planning preparedness and Professor Jayasinghe research in accounting and accountability in disaster management has been an important contribution to policy debate in these areas…In early 2020, the DMC collaborated with Professor Jayasinghe on multi-hazard risk profiling to ensure collaborative governance at local government level in Sri Lanka to be used in preparing central and local government personnel to environmental disaster situations. A training manual was designed to advocate a collaborative form of disaster risk accountability involving multiple stakeholders which drew on DMC’s disaster risk reduction manuals and Professor Jayasinghe’s research.’ [S5].

Kellard’s research has impacted on a transnational scale, changing thinking and influencing the working policy process of countries and international organisations. Achieving impact in this area is challenging requiring clear empirically based research that is significant and far reaching as international organisations will typically only base their policy on a large number of empirical research papers. Hence, only highly robust research influences the policy process and thinking on commodity price movements. Analysis of governments and international institutions has been influenced by Kellard’s research because it is the most robust confirmation of long and medium-run price movements and their causes. The research is not only influential, but it is significant in terms of its reach across sectors. It has informed the policy process and changed the thinking, policy and practice of international organisations, banks, governments and third sector organisations. Including:

Informing the policy process of international organisations to generate policy recommendations

(i) In a 2017 report, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAOUN) of the UN utilised Kellard’s research [R2] stating, ‘The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis argues that the terms of trade of economies dependent on primary commodities tend to deteriorate in the long run due to the secular decline of primary commodity prices relative to the prices of manufactured goods (Singer, 1950; Prebisch, 1950)…Therefore, developing countries’ reliance on commodity exports is not a viable basis for a long-term development strategy, since the relative value of these exports follows a downward trend…In order to ascertain the validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis across different types of commodities, econometric tests generally found that the hypothesis holds, despite the occurrence of relatively short periods of *commodity price surges (…; Harvey et al., 2010)*’ [S1].

(ii) In 2018 Kellard’s research [R2] was used by UN Under-Secretary-General and the Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS) in order to recommend several policies to least developing countries (LDCs) [S2].

(iii) In 2016, Kellard’s research informed Vietnamese economic analysis by the ILO and was the primary underlying empirical research to warn policymakers regarding the concentration of the production and export of natural resources. Hansjörg, Erwin, and Truong (2016) comment: ‘The long-term terms of trade effect expected by Singer and Prebisch reflects an overall slower productivity growth in developing countries producing natural resources as well as a relative stagnation of the demand of such products. Allowing the market mechanism to work developing countries will be pushed towards the production and export of primary products with relatively low value added. This reduces the possibility of catching-up. Empirically the Prebisch– Singer terms of trade hypothesis is supported for most of the primary products. However, there are some exceptions (see Harvey et al. 2010; Arezki et al. 2013)’. [S3, S3a]

(iv) In International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Papers, Kellard’s research has been used to underpin further analysis and policy recommendations. For example, Arezki et al. (2013) [S4] use the newly constructed long-run data from Harvey et al. (2010) [R2] to assess both the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis using new empirical tests and whether the volatility of commodity prices has changed over the long historical period noting, ‘ Primary commodity prices are found to be highly volatile with often time varying volatility. In general, the volatility has the tendency to increase during the recent years’, underlining the importance of risk management at a country level as an area of policy.

Informing the policy process of Central, Regional and Development Banks

(i) Chari and Christiano (2014) for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis investigate the optimal extraction of natural resources by using the data from [R2]. They report that the data in [R2] ‘ …shows that the prices of all our exhaustible resources have actually risen at a rate far lower than that on U.S. Treasuries. Prices on commodities for which we have the longest continuous data record (lead, coal and gold) rose at an annual average rate of 0.07, 0.13 and 0.16 percent, respectively, since 1650. Not one of the 11 commodities examined rose at a rate comparable to U.S. Treasury securities. (Tin is the closest, at 0.71.) Clearly, this simple version of Hotelling’s theory does not explain commodity price trends…. In our view, devising appropriate policy responses to such fluctuations requires an economic *theory that is consistent with the data.*’ [S5].

(ii) Regional development banks, such as the Asian Development Bank, have used Kellard’s research [R1] and [R2] as part of their evidence base on how to model commodity prices. For example, in considering the Chinese economy’s impact on commodities, the Asian Development Bank (2016) report [S6] notes that accounting for structural breaks (i.e., and that therefore highlight the medium-run) are an integral part of appropriately modelling prices, citing [R1] and [R2].

Informing Government policy in Australasia

(i) In a 2016 working paper for the Australian Government’s Productivity Commission [S7], the results of [R2] were employed to frame the thinking about the path of future commodity prices. In particular, it noted research by Kellard: ‘ …has suggested that countries like Australia, which are predominately exporters of primary commodities and importers of manufacturing goods, are likely to *experience falling terms of trade over time as a result of their trade mix.*’

(ii) Kellard’s research has also contributed to economic analysis undertaken by the New Zealand Government. In a New Zealand Government Treasury working paper by Phillip Borkin, [S8a] the methodological approach of Kellard’s research [R1] is employed to show that the country’s terms of trade have been increasing since 1973. The Treasury paper notes that [R1] suggest that researchers should undertake ‘ theoretical and empirical work examining local (i.e., medium-run) trends…Both types of analysis are undertaken below.’ Employing Kellard’s suggestion, the paper finds evidence of an upward trend in the post-1973 period and discusses how to maintain this upward trend. The results of Borkin’s work based on employing Kellard’s suggestion have been cited by further New Zealand Government working papers [S8] and have on-going influence on New Zealand Government budgetary analysis.

Impact on think tanks and third sector organisations

(i) Kellard’s research methods and findings have been deployed by developing country think tanks as the basis for conducting appropriate research and reaching policy decisions. For example, the Moroccan based Policy Center for the New South [S9] focuses on contributing ‘to knowledge sharing and to enrich reflection on key economic and international relations issues, considered as essential to the economic and social development of Morocco, and more broadly to the African continent.’ A recent Policy Brief by Jégourel (2017), on the trends and cyclicality of commodity prices, cites both [R2] and [R3]. For example, in terms of the methodological approach, Jégourel (2017) comments ‘ In addition to these justifications, several studies also focus on improving the quality of the series used. Harvey et al. (2017) thus explain that they removed the gold and silver price series used by Harvey et al. (2016) because of their statistical ambiguity and the distortions they could have created’ [S9].

(ii) The Bangladesh Development Research Centre (BDRC) employed Kellard’s findings [R2] as background and context for the deteriorating terms of trade in developing countries. By constructing an estimation model for terms of trade for Bangladesh, the BDRC gave recommendations to the Bangladeshi Government in 2017. For example, ‘The problem in the case of Bangladesh is that its export quality for manufactured goods has overall been decreasing. Hence, Bangladesh’s increased export value is due solely to increased quantity, but not quality. This implies that in addition to the long-standing policy recommendation for developing countries to diversify exports, it is also important to improve the quality of exports. In other words, export promotion policies focusing on export quantities might be reconsidered and redirected to focus on export quality and export prices.’ [S10]

(iii) In the UK, Kellard’s research has informed Action Against Hunger, an international global charity committed to saving the lives of malnourished children. Drawing on [R2] as underlying research accounting for uncertainty and impacting the drivers of hunger their report, ‘An Outlook on Hunger’ noted ‘Over the long-term, technological improvements tend to drive prices down through increased efficiencies. Even as certain products grow scarcer and prices should therefore rise, their increased value funds improved production and/or the development of alternatives, and so in the long run the prices still tend to decrease…. There is also growing evidence to support the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis that commodity prices decline over the long term relative to that of manufactured goods. See: Harvey, D.I., Kellard, N.M., Madsen, J.B. and Wohar, M.E., 2010…’ [S11]

Modelling and reducing systemic risk (the Reserve Bank of India)

Based on her research [R4,R5], Markose developed one of the earliest and most comprehensive implementations of a large scale data driven financial network software application (App) undertaken for financial systemic risk management in a large economy [S1].The outputs from the network model and App enabled the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to manage systemic risk in a timely basis [S1]. Since 2013, RBI has added the Markose systemic risk network App to their toolbox for monitoring and controlling risk in their financial system. Analysis using the App appears annually in the RBI Financial Stability Reports [S2].

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis when it was recognized that mainstream financial risk management and macro-economic models failed, central banks were setting up Financial Stability Units the world over to develop more system-wide network-based models for tracking financial contagion. Based on her research [R4, R5, R6], Markose was appointed Senior Consultant (between 2011 and 2015) for the digital mapping of the Indian Financial System at the newly formed Financial Stability Unit of the Reserve Bank of India [S3]. The JAVA software of a multilayer network that covers 1,500 Indian financial institutions, including banks and non-banks such as insurance companies and mutual funds, was developed by Markose in collaboration with Dr Simone Giansante [R9]. Through this project the RBI became one of the first central banks to mandate bilateral who-to-whom granular balance sheet data from their financial institutions to set up the digital map of financial flows. As the IMF note this was yet to become the standard in many countries where typically, central banks and mainstream macro-economic models use highly aggregated data which ignore the actual interbank credit flows and also institutional details that are causal in the ensuing crisis [S1].

The outputs from the granular network model allowed RBI to mitigate the systemic risk which identified that an Indian bank was borrowing aggressively in the interbank market and becoming a threat to the system. A network metric developed by Markose-Giansante showed that this bank, not one of the usual suspects, suddenly moved from rank number five to first rank in terms of network centrality metric over a period of 18 months, signalling its growing threat to the system. Indian regulators benefitted from the early warning capabilities that this network modelling of interconnected balance sheets of financial institutions provides [S1]. Markose produced a detailed handbook [R9] for the systemic risk App for the RBI Financial Stability Unit staff as well as training them in the theory behind the financial network methods [S4].

The IMF Deputy Director Asia Pacific, who conducted the Financial Stability Assessment Program (FSAP) for the Reserve Bank of India stated [S1]:

“The Indian regulators have benefitted from the early warning capabilities that this network modelling of interconnected balance sheet of financial institutions provides... [and] has greatly enhanced the ability of the India regulators to manage systemic risk in a timely basis. It must be noted that Professor Markose first developed some of the methods behind this RBI software for an IMF project on the systemic risk for global derivatives, and this is an area she continues to have considerable impact…it is a remarkable achievement for the project that Markose and Giansante pull off this software implementation...”

G20 Reforms of Over-the-Counter Derivatives market

A collaborative IMF research project led by Markose on the Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives Markets using network analysis in 2012 led to her appointment as an academic advisor for the implementation of the G20 reforms of the global derivatives markets.

As one of only four Academic Advisors to the G20 Over-the-Counter Derivatives Coordination Group (ODCG) of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and Financial Stability Board, Markose research [R4, R5] was drawn upon in the 2013 Macroeconomic Impact Assessment of OTC Derivatives Regulatory Reforms Report published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) [S5]. BIS chaired the ODCG which evaluated the combined effects of the regulatory reforms that were being implemented following the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The BIS study, completed under the aegis of Mark Carney as head of the FSB confirmed the primary result that the net benefit of these reforms was roughly 0.12% of global GDP per year justifying the cost to the banks of the proposed reform changes, which have in turn led to a reduction in the counter party risk in Over-the-Counter derivative markets [S5].

In the 10-year retrospective of the Great Financial Crisis, Markose was invited to analyse the impact of the G20 financial reforms of global derivatives markets [S6] for the Banque de France Financial Stability Review 2017 [R8]. Markose’s research and model gave a data driven depiction of the stability or lack of it, for the extant 2017 market infrastructure involving Central Clearing Platforms (CCP) for derivatives clearing and gives proof of concept for the design of skin-in-game capital requirements for CCPs so that they do not need to be bailed out by tax payers [R8].

In 2017 the Governor of the Banque de France, championed Markose research and further stated [S7]:

”This 21st edition of the Stability Review [R8] shows that the banking and financial regulations adopted since the crisis constitute a major acquis to be preserved because they have made the global financial system more robust. It also stresses the importance of a regular assessment of their impacts in order to consolidate this acquis. Our common challenge now is to preserve and enhance it”.

Informing regulatory policy debate on systemic risk in banking systems

Markose’s research continues to be drawn upon in regulatory policy debate for example: On 4 July 2018, Markose gave an assessment of systemic risk from Brexit [S8] at the Westminster Business Forum: Building a resilient UK financial sector - next steps for prudential regulation, structural reform and mitigating risks alongside the Deputy Governor and Executive Director of the Bank of England. Attendees included members of Treasury Select Committees. Markose warned about a potential misfiring of repo markets due to the conditions highlighted in her 2017 Banque de France Review [R8] and paper [R7] co-authored with Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia staff on the large demand for high quality liquid assets needed for CCP clearing and settlement. As monetary and financial systems become increasingly digital, Markose’s expertise led to an invitation as a panellist on systemic risk from cyber-attacks at the March 2020 Bank of England Conference on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine learning on the UK Economy [S9].

Essex research [R1, R2, R3] undertaken as part of the SCA-Emp research team resulted in a free online diagnostic toolkit which has been adopted by companies and professional bodies changing professional standards and methods. A wide range of organizations, including a major UK local authority, consultancies, textile and automotive firms in Brazil, Ethiopia and South Africa have adopted the SCA-Emp diagnostic toolkit [R4] for use in the delivery of their supply chain and procurement strategies.

The SCA-Emp toolkit [R4] is used to justify the choice of supply chain partners in a transparent way. The toolkit has been accessed by users in Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia, Germany, Italy, Japan, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, South Africa, Uganda, UK, and the US.

Adoption and embedding the SCA-Emp diagnostic toolkit in the UK

Essex research [R1, R2, R3] and the SCA-Emp diagnostic toolkit [R4] is a central part of Sheffield City Council’s (SCC) ethical procurement strategy, launched in October 2018 [S1]. SCC is the fourth largest unitary authority in the UK, with a budget of over GBP 1,100,000,000 per annum with cGBP 700,000,000 spent with 3^rd parties [S2].

Head of Procurement and Supply Chain at SCC states:

'The SCA-Emp diagnostic toolkit has facilitated external accreditation of SCC by the Real Living Wage Foundation. SCC recently updated the Real Living Wage Foundation on progress with the Ethical Procurement Policy implementation and the Living Wage Foundation were particularly impressed with SCC's use of the SCA-Emp diagnostic toolkit, which includes the ability to monitor and measure the progress of supplier interventions.' [S3].

A unique version of the toolkit was co-produced by the SCA-Emp research team and practitioners from Sheffield City Council and was supported by professional bodies including CIMA and the CIPD. Following the launch of SCC’s ethical procurement strategy, the online toolkit was rolled out to its supplier base from 29 March 2019 [S4]. The toolkit is used by managers in accounting, HR and supply chain management. Since the launch of the ethical procurement strategy and diagnostic toolkit in October 2018 SCC was awarded with an accreditation by the Real Living Wage Foundation [S2]. The council has seen 80% of its supply chain paying Real Living Wage [S5], 50% of contracts awarded to local suppliers with savings of GBP 547,000, and the introduction of a Pay Plus scheme improving supplier relationships [S6].

Adoption in South America

In Brazil the toolkit [R4] has been adopted by companies in sectors across engineering, automotive and clothing industries, Government backed social organisations and the Brazilian Association for Human Resources (ABRH). As a result, the companies have reported improvements to performance through the introduction of new management practices.

The Brazilian Association for Human Resources state:

‘[the toolkit led to the] Implementation of the entire internal meeting process using SCRUM methodology, which led to a considerable increase in productivity, integration, communication and tasks’ distribution. The level of engagement has also increased. People were not aware of others’ duties’ [S7].

The Director of the Nucelo Gestor de Cadeia Textile de Confeccoes (NTCPE) in Pernambuco, which implements strategies to improve the business environment in the textile and clothing sector states:

‘All of the activity of the [business] incubator has been influenced by the toolkit such as the training, consultancy and setting up new projects…the toolkit helped the organisation to have a more complete vision, and grow the mission and vision, working more collaboratively. Developments included setting up a collaborative shop in Sao Paulo, involving 20 companies and a project to certify companies to be suppliers of ABVTEX [The Brazilian Association of Textile Retail]’ [S7].

Within the engineering and automotive industry, feedback on the adoption of the toolkit indicates: increased profits and increased productivity; reinforced organisational rules and regulation within the area of HR; improved relationships between the managers and employees; welfare benefits and free training for employees and middle managers have been reinstated alongside improved communication and performance appraisal processes [S7].

Magnetron, a manufacturer of electrical parts for home appliances in Brazil, comments that the toolkit led to:

‘an increase in the interaction amongst employees and management. For example, we became much more organised in the way we plan/allocate our working hours, particularly before main holidays… [the toolkit] certainly led to an increase in the motivation of our employees... Toolkit helped us to improve the number of partnerships with suppliers.’ [S7].

A large automotive company who used the toolkit increased productivity by around 7% between 2016-2017 and the amount of new business increased by around 5% over the same period through visits to customers, which they believe has increased their competitiveness [S7].

Adoption in Africa

In Africa, the toolkit [R4] has been adopted by companies in a diverse range of industries including vegetation management, technology consultancies, gas and engineering companies and wine makers and distributors, improving stakeholder relations and returns.

The HR Director for a wine company in Ethiopia states: ‘ The toolkit was very instrumental in taking the full inventory of our policies, processes and systems in place, what we have and where our gaps are as well as to draw an action plan to bridge the gaps’ [S8].

One company in South Africa now keeps accounts with suppliers, and has enough cash flow to run the company, which enabled them to create a position for a procurement officer enabling them to monitor expenses and saving time for other departments.

A South African vegetation management company LNL Group state: ‘ After doing the toolkit we learnt it will be best for us to create at least 30 day accounts...We now have enough cashflow for everyday running of the company...A position for a Procurement Officer was created and all orders now go through procurement instead of different people from different departments making orders for themselves…We now also do relevant professional development across all departments.’ [S8].

The adoption of the toolkit has also empowered the same company to screen suppliers and to select those with business practices and policies that are aligned with their own strategic goals and sustainability targets [S9].

As part of a drive to establish more service-oriented and citizen-centric public administration, state governments in India have sought to develop initiatives to professionalise public administration. In 2014, the Ministry of Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions set up a project ‘Pathways for an Inclusive Indian Administration’, led by the IMG to professionalise public administration by introducing competency-based administrative reforms. As a former Technical Secretary to the State Planning Board and an active researcher on Kerala's issues, Arun has extensive experience of the state's public administration challenges and the IMG approached him to contribute his research base to the project. Arun and Adhikari’s research and expertise on public sector accountability [R3, R4, R5], particularly in the South Asian context, enabled them to substantially contribute to the implementation of the project [S1, S2]. The IMG project lead confirms “we found the papers such as Arun et. al. 2018 [R3], Adhikari et al. 2015 [R5] were useful in the proposed development of an accountability framework for civil servants in the state of Kerala“, adding “I appreciate the value of the base research done by you (Arun) and Dr Adhikari in conceptualizing and implementing the competency project in Kerala” [S1]. As of January 2020, selected officials of four state government departments in Kerala were trained in the Competency Framework approach, focusing on the learning aspects of accountability identified by Arun and Adhikari’s research [R2]. These departments cover vital public service functions like law enforcement, town and country planning, urban affairs, rural development, and poverty eradication:

• Kerala State Social Justice Department (responsible for implementing social welfare programmes)

• Kerala State Police (responsible for managing state police forces).

• Kerala’s Scheduled Tribes Development Department (responsible for uplifting the lives of ethnic groups of historically disadvantaged people, some 480,000 people in 37 tribes).

• Kerala’s Local Self Government Department (responsible for overseeing the decentralisation of powers to over 1000 Panchayats, Municipalities and Municipal Corporations in the state).

Drawing on Arun and Adhikari’s research and expertise on public sector accountability [R4, R5, R2, R3] the IMG developed employee handbooks [S2, S3] outlining roles and responsibilities, which are now used by both new and existing employees in the four state departments.

The Competency Framework has become a key component in fulfilling the demand for citizen-centric governance and multiple accountability relationships in these four state departments [S2, S3]. As a result, citizens are benefiting through the delivery of high-quality public services. The Competency Framework has also benefitted these four state departments through improved understanding and better human resources management, including recruitment, defining roles and expectations, identifying training needs and gaps, evaluating future development needs and succession planning and promotion [S1]. The Former Chief Secretary of the Government of Kerala commented – “The exercise [Competency Framework] has brought considerable clarity on the responsibilities… this is the first such attempt in the country. So it is an exercise of national relevance” [S2].

The Administrative Reforms Commission (ARC) in Kerala, whose role is to recommend measures improving the State Administrative System's efficiency, has acknowledged the significance of the outcomes of the Competency Framework project and state ‘” ARC has taken note of these initiatives as part of reform recommendations” further adding ” ARC has drawn from these reports and has recommended institutionalization of competency frameworks for good governance” [S4]. ARC referenced the Competency Framework in their 2018 report, where they have made recommendations for developing competency frameworks for each department in the State [S5] and re-emphasised this in their 2019 report on Personnel Reforms [S6]. The 2020 Governor’s annual report [S7], also acknowledged the competency framework's significance for improving public service delivery and accountability.

Kerala’s Government has internalised the importance of competency management in its new state training policy released in 2017 [S8]. The IMG Project Lead confirms ‘ The project has further enhanced the scope and content of the training programmes for civil servants in the State of Kerala, which is well acknowledged in the State Training Policy’ [S1].

The Kerala Institute of Local Administration (KILA), an autonomous institution functioning for local governments in Kerala, has incorporated the elements of the Competency Framework in its training programme from 2018-2019 onwards. The Director of KILA acknowledges that the handbooks have been of immense value “especially in designing training programmes, Training Needs Assessment and also in developing modules’ concluding that ‘ The concept of Competency framework itself has been of much value as it also guides us on how the capacity development activities have to be designed’ [S9].

The nature of accountability and governance in this region has been systematically changed due to the sustained embedding of the research in all aspects of the competency process over an extended period of time.

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a plan of action for people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnership seeking to eradicate extreme poverty in all its forms and dimensions. All 193 UN’s General Assembly countries are working in collaborative partnership to realise the human rights of all (United Nations). There is growing recognition that hybrid organizations can play a critical role in the achievement of the UN SDGs. Coupled with this there is a global challenge to bring youth into the work force either through encouraging their involvement in entrepreneurship and/or creating new jobs for them. Holt’s research shaped the UN’s social entrepreneurship agenda, building youth entrepreneurship in the UN’s strategic priorities and shaped policy debate around enabling social entrepreneurship in South Africa.

Shaping the social entrepreneurship agenda of the UN

Professor Holt’s research on hybrid enterprises, with associated work on the informal economy [R1-R7], specifically contributed to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Prosperity Goal. Holt was approached directly by the Director of the UN’s Division for Inclusive Social Development (UN DESA), as one of eight invited international experts (the only academic to be included), to contribute to an Expert Group Meeting (EGM) on ‘Youth Social Entrepreneurship and the 2030 Agenda’ [S1;S2;S3]. The group examined ways in which youth social entrepreneurship can be leveraged to become an integrated development solution towards the 2030 Agenda. Holt’s research [R4;R6] and the position paper she prepared for the EGM [R6] along with its recommendations directly shaped the UN’s 2020 World Youth Report (2020 WYR); a UN DESA flagship publication exploring young people's participation in economic, political and community life [S4]. The UN’s 2020 WYR provides robust and varied perspectives into youth engagement (with a specific focus on social enterprise), as well as policy guidance for Governments and local decision-makers in the UN’s 193 member states. The 2020 WYR encourages youth social entrepreneurship as an integrated development solution toward the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals and offers policy guidance to build enabling, responsive and sustainable national ecosystems for young social entrepreneurs [S5].

Building youth entrepreneurship in the UN’s strategic priorities

The UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) commissioned Holt to develop recommendations for the UN on broader aspects of youth entrepreneurship and ways to facilitate this across the world, especially in countries where poverty and informality dominate. UN DESA directly approached Holt due to her research and expertise around ‘for-purpose’ enterprises and informal economy businesses [R1-R4, R5] and her distinct contributions [R6] to the UN 2020 WYR report [S4], which explored the macro-socio-economic status of the countries and recommended directly applicable support programmes to optimise the UN youth programmes in an inclusive and demand driven approach [S6] . She was commissioned to analyse youth enterprise and employment in MSMEs in Cambodia, the Philippines, Gambia, Laos and Fiji and to highlight best-practice policy and practitioner initiatives globally [S7].

Holt’s culminating report ‘ Exploring Youth Entrepreneurship’ [R7] made a number of recommendations for UN youth entrepreneurship activities which was published by the UN in 2020 as advice to the government agencies, policy-makers, universities and other development agencies in UN member states interested in facilitating youth inclusion through entrepreneurship. The recommendations, which are mirrored in the UN’s 2020 WYR [S4], focused on how youth-focused interventions including, counseling, mentoring and sharing of marketing and financing information, could be leveraged and adapted to strengthen youth entrepreneurship ecosystems.

Recommendations from ‘ Exploring Youth Entrepreneurship’ [R7], included a segmented model of entrepreneurship enablers, barriers and potential initiatives that reflect informality, gender and other intersectionalities experienced by young people, are aimed at shaping national level policy in countries experiencing extreme poverty and dominated by an informal economy. The report makes recommendations for decision makers in the UN’s member states introducing initiatives aimed to include the most marginalized rather than only focusing on supporting youth enterprises in programmes such as incubators (where these new businesses often requiring specific knowledge, capital or other resources such as access to networks or markets are beyond the reach of most young people). This report [R7] also synthesizes information for five of the UN priority countries (Cambodia, the Philippines, Gambia, Laos and Fiji) focusing attention on these to encourage more investment and engagement with youth entrepreneurship.

Shaping policy debate to enable the social economy in South Africa

An ILO project with the South African Economic Development Department has been developing a Social Economy Policy for South Africa. A Green Paper outlining the government’s vision on developing social and community enterprises, co-operatives, and non-profit organisations, creating an eco-system that encourages the earning of income whilst focusing on economic and social goals is currently undergoing public consultation. In 2018 the ILO, specifically supported by their Pretoria office commissioned research papers to inform the policy development. Professor Holt’s research on the informal economy [R4] was a key resource and was drawn upon in ‘ Challenges and Opportunities for Social Economy in South Africa’ [S8].

The ILO (South Africa) confirms that: ‘ Professor Holt’s work has been an important motivator for initiating the policy process for the social economy here in South Africa, in particular her 2015 study with Prof Littlewood [R4], that explored the institutional environment for social entrepreneurship. Here there is a direct call for government to engage in a policy process to enable the social economy’ [S9]. In February 2019 a National Social Economy draft Green Paper was published by the Economic Development Department [S10] setting out the government’s proposals to create a formal policy on social economy in South Africa by the end of 2021 [S11].

The collaboration between Provide and Essex Business School (EBS) was initiated by Professor Nigel South of the Essex University Sociology department. South introduced Harris to the CEO of Provide in late 2012. In early 2013 the Mid Essex Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) established a committee that brought together local providers of community health care, acute care and social care in order to consider how services delivered to particular patient groups in Mid Essex might be more effectively integrated. Harris was invited to contribute academic expertise on the management of service innovation to this body [S1]. Harris then drew on his research to examine the ways in which indigenous workplace cultures and communities of practice could underpin service innovation within and between different care providers in Mid Essex.

Adoption of distributed leadership across Provide and Essex County Council

In October 2015 Harris and the CEO of Provide collaborated on the design and delivery of an Essex Business School/ Provide workshop on new forms of distributed leadership and change management. This event allowed Harris to engage closely with twenty selected professionals from four provider organisations ( Provide, Essex County Council Social Services, Mid Essex Health Trust, Age UK Essex) and one purchaser organisation (the Mid Essex CCG). The workshop introduced the concept of ‘distributed change management’ – this offers a distinctive approach to project implementation that is well suited to professionalised workforces [R1-R7]. Through this approach, local care professionals working in multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) were empowered to develop patient-centred care services [S1]. The CEO of Provide states that : ‘[Harris’ research] has helped to establish a ‘distributed’ approach to building alliances with other care providers. This approach to the implementation of large complex projects differs markedly from ‘industry standard’ change management models. Martin’s work on this front has facilitated closer engagement with strategic partners and it has been recognised by the Mid Essex Clinical Commissioning Group as a valuable tool’ [S1]. Between 2016 and 2017, Harris used an IAA (Impact Acceleration Account) secondment to Provide [G1] to monitor the benefits of MDT working. Whilst MDT working produced local improvements in the coordination of previously separate health or social care services, these benefits could not be scaled in ways that would create the ‘systems-wide’ benefits identified by recommendation two of the 2013 report [R3]. Qualitative data gathering conducted during the course of the secondment indicated that rigid and impermeable organisational boundaries between primary, acute and social care had continued to inhibit ‘systems-wide’ innovation in these services.

Essex University facilitation of the Provide/Essex County Council joint venture

In October 2017 the University of Essex Vice Chancellor was approached by the head of Essex County Council with a proposal that Harris and South could facilitate discussions between senior executives responsible for community care, social care and acute care on the ‘systems-wide’ integration of separate primary and acute services in Mid Essex. Intensive discussions hosted by Harris and South at EBS led to the emergence of a collaborative joint venture between Provide and Essex County Council Adult Social Care. The joint venture emphasised high-trust collaborative relationships and knowledge sharing rather than formalised bureaucratic procedures [R3]. This resonates with the underpinning research on how ‘post-Bureaucratic’ organisational forms can enable public sector organisations to develop more flexible and responsive services [R1, R2]. Whilst the title of the new body (known as the Provide/ECC Integrated Community Health and Social Care Programme Board or ICH&SCPB) reflects the formalised nomenclature found in public sector settings, this functioned as an ‘arms-length’ project management organisation that operated outside the formalised bureaucratic hierarchies of the two partner organisations. These features of the Provide/ECC joint venture accord closely with the organisational designs that were recommended by Harris in 2013 [R3]. Harris was invited to sit as an advisor to the newly established Programme Board in March 2018. Further IAA funding allowed Harris to disseminate techniques for joint working across previously fixed organisational boundaries in 2018-19 [G2].

Adoption and embedding of evaluation tool for Provide and Essex County Council

In early 2019 the Project Lead for the newly created Integrated Care Programme Board (ICH&SCPB) invited Harris to contribute expertise on how the new approach to service integration could be envisioned and evaluated. At this point Harris invited Tucker to bring specialist expertise on sense making and change management techniques to the engagement [R5]. Tucker joined the programme Board in early 2019 and later worked with a small group of Provide and ECC middle managers on the joint redesign of critical service interfaces. In May 2019, Tucker and Harris introduced a customised project monitoring/evaluation methodology at a specially convened workshop [S2]. This event built on the idea that service interfaces could be reconfigured on a ‘distributed’ basis by these managers. The new methodology was subsequently adopted by Provide and ECC middle managers who are responsible for evaluating redesigned service provision in the key areas of integrated rapid response, crisis prevention, and the joint processing of patient referrals. The Programme Lead for the ICH&SCPB stated that the evaluation tool ‘ has made a tangible difference to our capacity for monitoring and evaluating progress on a ‘real time’ basis, and it has been adopted as our preferred method of evaluating complex organisational change processes…Using this methodology to evaluate the programme will be of direct and lasting benefit in informing new ways of commissioning integrated care services in Mid Essex’ [S3]. Tucker later advocated the creation of new ‘boundary spanning’ roles that would further facilitate and consolidate the diffusion of best practice. These efforts came to fruition in late summer 2019 when senior managers at Provide and ECC agreed to create a jointly funded post for an Integrated Health and Social Care Programme Manager [S4].

Collaborative design and development of a management learning tool to ensure continued learning and open dialogue between health and social care providers

The final stages of the engagement have seen Harris and Tucker working closely with the CEO of Provide and the ECC Director for Strategy and Integration on the identification and management of new capacities for the realisation of ‘systems-wide’ improvements in joint care services. Harris published a longitudinal account of the organisational learning that has occurred over the course of the seven-year Provide/ECC ‘integration journey’ [R6]. Key insights on the nature of this learning journey have been reflected back to senior and middle managers who have in turn worked closely with Harris and Tucker on the introduction of knowledge management techniques and strategies for building capacity for organisational learning [R7]. The ECC Head of Integration and Partnerships has stated that: ‘The techniques we’ve learnt for developing a shared project culture have been of direct benefit in consolidating our joint venture with Provide. Building capacity for collaboration across previously fixed organisational boundaries has allowed us to reduce the transaction costs that would have been incurred had we adopted a conventional contracting out model of joint care provision’ [S5].

This learning tool has been used to run intensive groupwork sessions that allow small groups of middle and senior managers to work across previously fixed professional jurisdictions and organisational divides. The Integrated Health and Social Care Programme Manager confirms that: ‘Using the management learning tool has allowed Provide to get a much stronger grasp of how care professionals from different organisations can work together at different points in the integration process. The tool has also given us more effective ways of disseminating new forms of best practice as we redesign our care services in collaboration with colleagues from ECC Adult Social Care’ [S6].

The ECC Director for Strategy and Integration has stated that: ‘ The EBS management learning tool (introduced in September 2020) is helping to facilitate dialogue between personnel (from both ECC and Provide) who may have very different professional world views or managerial priorities. The introduction of the tool has been of particular value in maintaining this dialogue under COVID conditions. We are keen to maintain the momentum on this work, and we look forward to working closely with Martin and Danielle on future teambuilding and management learning events in 2021’ [S5] .