Impact case study database

By providing a robust and respected evidence base, Strathclyde’s Scottish Centre for Employment Research (SCER) has shaped Scotland’s approach to fair work and driven its implementation and ongoing development. This has been achieved through sustained stakeholder collaboration and membership of key groups by Professors Findlay and Lindsay since 2014. As a result, Scotland has established a clear policy, implementation and monitoring framework which has enabled improvements across the various dimensions of fair work, most notably security of employment and income, and highlighted priority areas for action. Sectoral analysis has been at the heart of this, ensuring targeted responses to challenges including the ramifications of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Shaping Scotland’s approach to fair work

Described as ‘a source of inspiration, challenge and support’ by the former Permanent Secretary to the Scottish Government (2010-2015), Professor Findlay made a substantial contribution to the Working Together Review of Progressive Workplace Policies in Scotland conducted in 2014 [ S1a]. Commissioned by the Government, the Review Group (comprising 8 members, with Findlay as the only academic representative) drew heavily on SCER research to identify good practice and opportunities for improvement. According to the Review Chair, Findlay ‘played an absolutely vital role in…ensuring that we all saw the big picture, our discussions were evidence-based, and shaping our conclusions and recommendations’ [ S2a]. More specifically, SCER ‘research on the potential of employer-union partnership both at workplace level and in the development of policy at a strategic level, and…on the future challenges facing Scotland’s workplaces, were both crucial to our recommendations that progressive workplace practice could be better supported at a national level by the creation of a stakeholder body to provide leadership on Fair Work’ [ S2a]. This is evident in the Review report itself which cites R1 as evidence of the benefits of union engagement in skills utilisation and ‘calls for a more complete approach to optimising our workplaces…recognising the relevance and value that can be delivered by all parties and the gains that can accrue from focussing on common interest’ [ S2b pp.3,18].

Responding to the Working Together Review recommendations with parliamentary approval, the Scottish Government ‘implemented a number of changes’ in 2014/2015 including: the establishment of a Cabinet Secretary post for Fair Work, Skills and Training (believed to be the first of its kind in Europe); creation of the proposed stakeholder body (known as the Fair Work Convention); continued support for Scottish Union Learning and a refreshed Memorandum of Understanding with the Scottish Trade Union Congress (STUC); establishment and continuation of a staff governance model in the NHS; and support for the Living Wage through funding of the Poverty Alliance and Living Wage Foundation, promotion of Living Wage accreditation and setting an example with the Public Sector Pay Policy [ S2c]. Established in April 2015 to provide a ‘focal point to develop, promote and sustain a fair work framework in Scotland’, the Fair Work Convention (comprising 9 members, including Findlay as independent academic advisor) spent its first year developing an evidence-based Fair Work Framework. Published in 2016, this drew heavily on SCER’s existing body of research (mapping entirely to the broad and holistic approach outlined) as well as new studies commissioned for the purpose including a mapping of stakeholder views and briefings on the key dimensions of fair work (effective voice, opportunity, security, fulfilments and respect) [ S3a]. The Framework also incorporated SCER’s analytical model from the FITwork project which ‘captures how fair work is a crucial component in delivering high performing and innovative workplaces’ [ S3a p.8]. Attesting to this influence, the Convention Co-Chair commented, ‘one only has to look at the Endnotes to the Fair Work Framework…to see the impact which the research carried out by the Scottish Centre for Employment Research had on the work of the Convention’ [ S3b].

In parallel to this, SCER informed the development of the Scottish Government’s National Performance Framework (NPF) launched in June 2018. As noted by the Deputy Director of the Government’s Fair Work and Skills Division, ‘Professor Findlay engaged closely with the Scottish Government’s Chief Statistician to make successfully an evidence-based case for the inclusion of skills utilisation as an indicator in our National Performance Framework, drawing on SCER research to do so. Having this indicator means that the Scottish Government not only measures skills utilisation, but sees its improvement as a policy focus’ [ S1b]. Endorsement of the ‘Fair Work Framework emphasis on effective voice’ and commitment ‘to supporting the expansion of collective bargaining’ is also stressed [ S1b], with the STUC welcoming its inclusion in the NPF [ S4]. Insights from SCER’s research were also incorporated into the report of the Scottish Parliament Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee 2015 inquiry into the quality of employment in Scotland. Quoting Findlay’s written submission and oral evidence (given June 2015) numerous times, the report pushed for a ‘firm commitment towards employee engagement and encouraging the strong management and leadership skills needed to improve the workforce in improving its own wellbeing’ and recommended that the Government ‘embed these aims in all the employment business support programmes it funds’ [ S5]. This led the Government to integrate fair work in its 2015 statutory guidance on the selection of tenderers and award of contracts, which was supplemented with procurement best practice guidance and a toolkit for public bodies and suppliers in 2018 [ S6].

Driving the implementation and monitoring of fair work

Since establishing the Fair Work Framework in 2016, the Fair Work Convention (co-chaired by Findlay from 2017) has played a key role in advancing Scotland’s fair work agenda. By providing advice and guidance, developing networks and alliances, undertaking research and monitoring, the group has enabled sustained progress to be made. While much is still to be done to make fair work a reality for all workers and employers across Scotland, with the Convention itself noting that faster action is required if Scotland is to become a world-leading ‘Fair Work Nation’ by 2025, advances in a number of areas have been made. These are outlined in the Fair Work in Scotland report, published in December 2020, which introduces the Fair Work Convention’s Measurement Framework consisting of 39 indicators to reflect the multidimensional nature of fair work and facilitate detailed monitoring [ S7a]. Drawing on the latest Official Statistics (including the Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey, and the Scottish Employers Skills Survey) and ensuring statistical significance to provide robust and reliable information, the report evidences improvements across 14 of the indicators between 2015/16 and 2019/20. Though potentially attributable to multiple influences, these improvements are specifically in areas prioritised by the Convention in seeking to drive change, such as in relation to security of employment and income, and effective voice. With the Scottish Government actively pursuing this, the overall measure of employment security in Scotland (comprising security of contract, pay and hours) has improved from 54.5% of workers in 2015 to 63.9% of workers in 2019. Similarly, the commitment to effective voice as a key element of workplace quality has seen a rise in the proportion of workers whose terms and conditions are covered by collective bargaining in Scotland from 34.9% in 2015 to 38% in 2019, as well as a pledge by the Scottish Government to establish national collective bargaining in social care [ S7a].

Various initiatives involving SCER have contributed to these improvements, namely sectoral research highlighting particular challenges and priority areas for action, and the development of an employee self-assessment tool and a benchmarking tool to support employers’ in delivering fair work. Seeking to ensure that fair work is embedded in the delivery of social care services (a sector which employs 7.7% of the Scottish labour force), the Convention established a Social Care Inquiry in January 2017. Overseen by a Social Care Working Group (comprising 10 members, including Professor Lindsay) and encompassing SCER research on how frontline workers and their managers feel about their day to day work [ R4], the inquiry made recommendations to improve employee voice, representation and terms and conditions which are being implemented by the Scottish Government [ S7b]. Reflecting on the progress made to date, UNISON Scotland’s Regional Manager notes that this ‘is founded upon a recent consensus that enhanced job quality is key to the type of stable workforce required to obtain returns on skills investment, to elevate the status of care work, thereby increasing the quality and capacity of care in Scotland. All that traces back to specific findings and recommendations from Findlay/SCER research’ [ S8]. Similar work to develop a Fair Work Charter for the construction industry to improve the practices of contractors and sub-contractors is also underway, involving the Scottish Government, Scottish Futures Trust and industry partners [ S4a,b]. In addition, at the request of the Scottish Partnership Forum (SPF) in 2018, SCER undertook a review of partnership working in NHS Scotland which informed efforts to progress the ‘partnership at all levels to support a more holistic approach to the delivery of health and social care services’ [ S9].

To support employers to embed fairer working practices, the Government published a Fair Work Action Plan in February 2019 which sets out a range of measures including a benchmarking tool to assess current practice (developed with input from Findlay), a refreshed Scottish Business Pledge aligned more closely to Fair Work principles, a new learning network, and an international Fair Work Summit. It also contains a commitment to ‘extend Fair Work criteria to every type of grant, funding stream and business support budget’ [ S10a]. As reported by the Advisory Group on Economic Recovery in 2020, this Fair Work First approach ‘to the award of business support grants has been phased in by the enterprise bodies and the Scottish Government’ [ S10b]. Highlighting the benefits of this, the Director of Human Resources at Skills Development Scotland points ‘to numerous examples…where Fair Work ideals have been embedded into the skills action plans developed with businesses’ which have enabled them ‘to grow through improving their staff and including them in decision making processes’ [ S1c]. Public agencies have also reaped rewards from embedding fair work into their employment practices. According to the Director of Strategy Services at Scottish Enterprise, which employs approximately 1,200 staff, ‘both internally and in service delivery, we have made significant changes in response to the Fair Work Framework, and these have delivered benefits to the businesses we interact with, and to our staff’ [ S1d].

The principles of fair work have also underpinned the Scottish Government response to the coronavirus pandemic. According to the Deputy Director of the Fair Work and Skills Division, the ‘commitment to ensuring effective voice, and more broadly to fair work, has been at the heart of our Covid-19 response. The ethos of the Fair Work Framework – solving collective problems through voice, collaboration and dialogue – is now embedded in various ways and processes through which Scotland deals with lockdown, post-lockdown restart and future economic recovery. The Advisory Group on Economic Recovery has also stressed the importance of embedding fair work in Scotland’s longer-term economic recovery, and the Scottish Government is actively working to deliver on their recommendations’ [ S1b]. This is reflected in actions to establish tripartite voice channels for restart and recovery, address variations in experiences during the pandemic for groups with protected characteristics, and attach fair work conditionality to Covid-19 support [ S10b]. Furthermore, as noted in a joint statement on ‘Fair work during the transition out of lockdown’ issued in July 2020: ‘Adopting Fair Work practices has helped to guide employers and workers in agreeing fair and flexible practices. We have already seen the value of this approach to decision making in responding to the crisis so far, and the efforts being made across all sectors is hugely appreciated’ [ S10c]. As part of this, ‘a protocol between the Scottish Government and the civil service unions has been developed on how they will work together during the coronavirus crisis’ which ‘sets the expectations for an approach to be taken across the civil service sector and promoted more widely across the public sector and beyond’ [ S10c].

Since 2014, research undertaken by the Scottish Centre for Employment Research (SCER) at Strathclyde has contributed to the improvement of work and workplaces across Scotland by evidencing successful practice and the broad benefits of workplace innovation. Specifically, it has:

• Facilitated collaboration and secured stakeholder commitment to workplace innovation;

• Enhanced business and skills support for workplace innovation through public agencies;

• Enabled businesses to adopt innovative practices to improve performance; and

• Stimulated trade union engagement with workplace innovation to deliver member benefits.

Facilitated collaboration and secured stakeholder commitment to workplace innovation

Established in 2014 to underpin Strathclyde’s Innovating Works… research programme, the Workplace Innovation Consortium (WIC) drove policy change and adoption in Scotland by bringing business leaders, policymakers and researchers together to identify and promote best practice in workplace innovation. Reflecting on the significance of this, the former General Secretary of the Scottish Trade Union Congress (STUC) notes how ‘it delivered for the first time a high level, multi-stakeholder forum committed to workplace innovation, designed by SCER and engaging key stakeholders, and committed to co-creating impact in Scotland’s workplaces through leading edge research and evidence (provided by SCER) and the deployment of resources and support (provided by the other partners) to turn research into change in practice’ [ S1]. As a result, the network played a key role in ‘shaping and advancing the Scottish approach to workplace innovation and its role in delivering inclusive growth’ [ S1]. This is apparent in the Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy (2015) which points to alignment ‘with work led by others, such as the Workplace Innovation Consortium, to find innovative ways to draw together all of the resources and expertise at our disposal and work together to achieve innovative workplaces and outcomes’ [ S2a p.58]. The importance of Strathclyde’s subsequent FITwork project [ R1] is also captured in the Labour Market Strategy (2016). As well as identifying WI as one of five priority areas, the strategy identifies government support for the ‘Fair, Innovative and Transformative Work (FITwork) project at the Centre for Employment Research (University of Strathclyde)’ as a key initiative to increase innovation in Scotland’s businesses, noting the provision of Strathclyde’s ‘bespoke online FITwork diagnostic to Scottish Business Pledge and other businesses’ as part of this [ S2b p.36].

Connected to this, exemplar firms from the FITwork project [ R1] (Tribe Yoga/Urban Fitness; GMG Contracting Ltd, Munro Rehab Ltd, Anderson Strathern) became signatories to the Scottish Business Pledge and were then deployed by the Scottish Government to drive wider business innovation through sharing successful practice across influential employer networks. Attesting to the importance of Strathclyde’s research and expertise in driving this, Tribe Yoga, an Edinburgh-based health and wellness studio, ‘attributes its success to providing fair and stable employment’ and outlines the steps involved: ‘Following engagement with the Innovating Works…improving work and workplaces initiative at the University of Strathclyde, the business founder decided to try fair and innovative work as a business model…This approach has generated many business benefits. Employees are engaged, motivated and team oriented…it appears to have delivered benefits in terms of reduced sick leave and absenteeism. Most important, however, is a far stronger sense of ownership, where employees tackle client and operational challenges’ [ S3].

Furthermore, the Scottish Government’s Head of Strategic Engagement confirms that: ‘Over the period since 2014, it has been of great value to officials in the Directorate for Economic Development of the Scottish Government to engage directly with the research of the SCER team. This has informed our own thinking and how we have delivered business support both directly and through the Scottish public agencies, and has helped deliver a new policy agenda, new strategic initiatives, and most crucially, a way of thinking that aligns key government priorities for the economy, for business and for the workforce, underpinned by evidence on the practical steps that businesses can take to be more innovative. This has supported evidence-based policy making that has directly improved our offer to the business community and beyond, and while it is immensely difficult to quantify the outcomes of a new policy focus, we can clearly see the adoption of workplace innovation within key public agencies and the impact that these have had in supporting businesses’ [ S4].

Enhanced business and skills support for workplace innovation through public agencies

As reflected in the Enterprise and Skills Board Strategic Plan (2018) [ S5], stakeholder commitment to workplace innovation has translated into tangible actions to enhance business and skills support. Citing a SCER briefing based on the Harnessing knowledge report [ R1] to justify its strategic focus, the plan recommended an ‘Innovating Workplaces’ campaign which, according to a member of the board, ‘resulted in Scotland’s economic development and skills agencies revising the support they offer to Scotland’s businesses to help them adjust their workplace policy and practice’ [ S1]. This is clear from the changes implemented by Scottish Enterprise (SE), Scotland's national economic development agency, since 2016. According to the Head of Workplace Innovation, ‘Scottish Enterprise has developed an operating model which promotes an approach to Workplace Innovation which is predicated by SCER’s research approach’ [ S5]. More specifically, in response to the research findings they have ‘developed a SE Workplace Innovation Division and service’ which has ‘supported circa 700 businesses per annum since 2016’, ‘launched new programmes to support businesses’ including the ‘WI Engagement programme and High Performing Participating Team programme to support companies on their growth journey’, and ‘developed a new WI service for early growth stage clients’ [ S6]

Another key Scottish Enterprise initiative has been the delivery, in conjunction with SCER,of ‘a series of WI Masterclasses to businesses - bringing research and practical examples together, and evidencing how workplace innovation, in all its forms, can bring together an organisation’s people, processes and networks to develop new ways of working that benefit everyone’ [ S6]. Involving ‘over 500 attendees across 8 sessions’, a SE evaluation concluded that these Masterclasses had been successful in ‘assisting Scottish businesses and key stakeholders to share evidence and practice and network around the benefits and challenges of engaging with the workplace innovation agenda’ [ S7]. Furthermore, ‘SE has also embedded Workplace Innovation into our own organisational structures and practices’, using a bottom-up approach to develop their strategic framework, vision, purpose and values, and delivering ‘an Intrapreneurship Programme to encourage creativity and to make the most of individuals’ skills, knowledge and insight to effect change’ [ S6].

By helping Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Scotland’s national skills agency, to mainstream workplace innovation, SCER’s research has also enhanced apprenticeship provision and engagement with business on skills needs. This is confirmed by SDS Head of Employer Services, who notes that the FITwork project made ‘people stop and look and see what was going on’ and, through the development and application of a diagnostic tool (mentioned in the Labour Market Strategy) ‘got under the real challenges that businesses had and then identified how to move through that solutions process’ [ S8] . The resulting case studies provided ‘very tangible, transferable examples’ which advanced understanding of ‘what the levers were to make things change’, and the work overall ‘pulled everything together and did refocus a lot professionals’ minds to look at what’s been done and how we need to move forward’ [ S8].

Enabled businesses to adopt innovative practices to improve performance

Through direct engagement with over 40 businesses and over 2000 employees (plus approximately 8,000 employees indirectly) between 2015 and 2018, the FITwork project encouraged and enabled businesses to adopt innovative practices through practice redesign and the development of an organisational architecture for innovation. One such company, the leading blue-chip law firm Anderson Strathern (with 53 partners and over 230 employees across Scotland) has implemented various business changes as a result. As noted by the firm’s previous Chairman, ‘throughout that time in working with Professor Findlay, I, and Anderson Strathern, were inspired and motivated to put innovation at the core of our business by working in partnership, collaborating constructively and engaging in new things to reflect new times and challenges’ [ S9]. There were two distinct benefits: ‘First, it reinforced that many of the policies and practices that we operated in the firm were producing the outcomes that we hoped from them. Second, we were able to respond to areas of improvement identified in our FITwork survey responses and to make changes that enhanced our business and the experience of our staff’ [ S9]. This included using ‘FITwork champions’ to drive change, and designing creativity criteria into recruitment, selection, training and remuneration practices, benefitting staff and firm performance. Similar benefits were realised by Chivas Brothers, a global business based in Scotland, who also participated in the FITwork project and continue to reap the benefits. Reflecting on its significance, the Spirit Supply and Warehousing Group Manager notes increased employee engagement, operational flexibility and job progression opportunities which have enabled them to respond effectively to the challenges of the Covid19 pandemic [ S10]. Summing up, he observes, ‘Overall, the research findings and the process of engaging with the researchers helped us break the mould in terms of our previous way of operating, removing barriers that we had previously faced. In addition to helping us to identify problem issues much more accurately, the research also highlighted the types of workplace practices that were likely to diminish these problems, so gave us practical routes forward. Our experience was of identifiable and measurable benefits arising from an all-round successful process’ [ S10].

The workplace innovation Masterclasses run with Scottish Enterprise, which engaged 450 business leaders from firms of all sizes and reached at least 900 more through innovation blogs, also enabled business learning, change and improvement. As detailed in the evaluation survey, actions taken as a result include: reviewing HR service provision to better support innovation; changing recruitment processes to headline creativity and innovation; developing training for cross-team collaboration and information-sharing; and redesigning operational practice to facilitate team learning [ S7].

Stimulated trade union engagement with workplace innovation to deliver member benefits

SCER’s research has also stimulated and supported trade unions to embed workplace innovation in their work to improve skills utilisation and ensure appropriate rewards and progression for employees. According to the recently retired General Secretary of the Scottish Trades Union Congress, ‘The outcome of the Innovating Works and FITwork research provided the STUC and member unions with evidence on which to base discussions with employers – collectively with employers’ representative bodies and individually – about better use of skills in the workplace, the benefits of collaborative working and about how both employers and workers could benefit from more innovative workplace practices. SCER also supported unions by undertaking case studies of better skills utilisation in situ alongside managers, unions and workers in three businesses, showing exactly how individual workers and unions benefitted from better use of skills by accessing new qualifications and better pay, enhancing job satisfaction, and improving career progression prospects for those workers involved’. In addition, ‘union modernisation projects were established to support unions in internal innovation…which enabled unions to implement a range of new and innovative practices and structures to deliver more effective involvements and representation of members, particularly those from groups with protected characteristics’ [ S1].

Supporting regional policy-making through the advancement and application of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling, since 2014 Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) has:

• Informed the Scottish Government’s Community Energy Policy Statement (2015), Energy Strategy (2017) and Community and Renewable Energy Scheme (CARES) which has contributed to the achievement of renewable energy targets.

• Shaped the Scottish Government’s policy response and preparations for Brexit following the EU referendum in 2016, informing ‘Scotland’s Place in Europe’ 2016 and 2018 position statements and the 2016 Scottish Parliament Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Affairs Committee inquiry.

• Enabled policy development within Glasgow City Council in relation to the Glasgow City Region deal, Brexit, Covid-19 and net-zero emissions targets.

• Facilitated third sector policy analysis and debate in partnership with the Scottish Policy Foundation, including influencing the David Hume Institute’s Wealth of the Nation reports and supporting the establishment of CBI Scotland’s new productivity index.

• Enhanced debate around the Northern Ireland Protocol and informed the Northern Ireland Executive’s policy priorities and Brexit negotiations.

• Strengthened policy analysis and evaluations undertaken by the European Commission through the development of its RHOMOLO CGE model.

Scottish Government

According to the Scottish Government’s Chief Economist, who leads a Directorate of approximately 100 staff providing economic, statistical and research advice on all issues relating to the economy, the embedding of Strathclyde’s CGE model of the Scottish economy since 2011 has significantly enhanced their analytical capabilities and knowledge. With ongoing input from FAI researchers to build in-house modelling capacity and extend the original model, including ‘research on a new two-region (Scotland/rUK), and variations that capture work on energy policy, agricultural policy and fiscal policy‘, the Government is ‘now running the model fully and applying this approach in a number of areas’ [ S1]. This has enabled them to support ‘policymaking at the highest level in the Scottish Government from migration issues, where it informed the Scottish Government policy position on calling for further powers on migration, through to childcare, energy, labour market policy and citizen’s basic income’, which references the model throughout [ S1]. This is acknowledged by the Head of Enterprise and Innovation, who led on developing the Government’s evidence base to inform policy decisions on both energy and climate change. Confirming that the macroeconomic modelling framework ‘was used extensively to explore different energy and low carbon policies’, he notes the importance of Strathclyde’s contribution: ‘This work was supported by colleagues at Strathclyde who worked closely with our team on model developments. This included developing links between our own TIMES Climate Change model and the Strathclyde built CGE model. All this work and the analysis that followed helped to inform our 2017 Scottish Government Energy Strategy’ [ S2].

Analysis undertaken by Strathclyde has also directly informed policy development, a notable example being the 2016 report for the Scottish Parliament on the Long-term Economic Implications of Brexit. As outlined by the Chief Economist, the route from research to policy influence is clear: ‘Following publication of FAI research into the potential impacts of Brexit on the Scottish economy in 2016, we worked with the FAI to incorporate their findings into our analytical work, including working with them on developing new scenarios for our own internal analysis where they offered valuable advice. This informed the policy position set out by Scottish Ministers in ‘Scotland’s Place in Europe’ published in December 2016 and provided the analytical framework for our subsequent analysis and advice to Ministers in ‘Scotland's Place in Europe: people, jobs and investment’ published in January 2018’ [ S1].

This is also confirmed by the Director of External Affairs, who credits Strathclyde with enabling ‘work on Brexit and Scotland’s future population strategy’ which subsequently informed debate and decision-making [ S3]. A key example of this is the 2018 ‘Scotland's population needs and migration policy: discussion paper on evidence, policy and powers for the Scottish Parliament’, which supplemented analysis undertaken by Strathclyde for the Scottish Parliament Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Affairs Committee in 2016. According to the Committee Convenor, the resulting report on the long-term implications of Brexit made ‘a valuable contribution to understanding the specific impacts in Scotland, particularly in relation to our key economic sectors’ and convinced them of the need for additional work ‘to promote a further understanding of the potential impacts of the different trade models in Scotland and the policy decisions that would best protect Scotland’s interests’ [ S4]

Alongside this, research published by Strathclyde as part of the ClimateXChange initiative [ R3] played a key role in shaping energy policy. In the words of the Head of Enterprise and Innovation, it ‘had a major influence upon our understanding of the scale of potential economic benefit from community and locally-owned energy. This was a key part of our evidence base in the Scottish Government’s ‘Community Energy Policy Statement’ published in 2015, which set out our ambitions to support community energy projects’ [ S2]. This was used to justify the Government’s support for community energy, including through the Community and Renewable Energy Scheme (CARES), enabling Scotland to exceed its 2020 target of 500MW of community owned and locally owned renewable energy capacity [ S2].

City of Glasgow Council

Recognised for its contribution to policy development at national level, Strathclyde’s CGE modelling has also enhanced analytical capacity and knowledge within Glasgow City Council. As outlined by the Director of Regional Economic Growth for Glasgow City Council: ‘In the context of the GBP1,100,000,000 Glasgow City Region deal, and the need for better understanding of the Glasgow City economy to support policy development, we commissioned the FAI to develop a city-region Computable General Equilibrium model’ [ S5]. Developed in 2019 and now embedded in the analytical toolkit used by officials in the Council and City Region Intelligence Hub, ‘this modelling framework has been used to not only inform our work on the Glasgow City Region Deal, but in other areas of work, including our response to Brexit and in assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the Glasgow economy’. Stressing its ongoing importance, the Director affirms that ‘the work of the FAI has played an important role in informing our long-term economic development strategy for Glasgow’ and that ‘going forward, we will be using the model in a number of areas, including informing our goal of becoming the first net zero city within the UK [ S5].

Scottish Policy Foundation

To extend the benefits of CGE modelling to the third sector, Strathclyde’s model of the Scottish economy has been shared with various non-governmental bodies. The main thrust of this has been through the Scottish Policy Foundation (SPF), an independent, apolitical grant-making charitable foundation working to promote honest, insightful and objective policy research to the people of Scotland in order to inform public debate. As well as acknowledging FAI’s ‘major contribution to the quality of public debate in Scotland’ through its day-to-day work, including substantial engagement with the business and policy community, the SPF Director confirms the difference that the modelling framework has made since 2017: ‘We have worked in partnership with the FAI to make their Computable General Equilibrium model of the Scottish economy available to think tanks for research purposes, boosting the analytical capacity of these organisations beyond recognition. This framework – alongside general analytical support from the FAI – means that think tanks can develop and test their policy ideas as never before. This partnership has already enabled the David Hume Institute, the Institute for Public Policy Research and Shelter Scotland to undertake research that has addressed some of the key challenges for the Scottish economy’ [ S6]. Furthermore, they ‘estimate that the monetary value of this research and modelling work that FAI has completed on behalf of the David Hume Institute, IPPR Scotland and Shelter Scotland is over GBP50,000’ [ S6]

According to the Director of the David Hume Institute, gaining access to the macroeconomic modelling framework in 2018 enabled it to examine ‘the different avenues through which productivity could have an impact on the economy’ [ S10]. This resulted in the publication of two reports, both of which acknowledge Strathclyde’s substantial input: Wealth of the Nation: Scotland’s Productivity Challenge (2018) and Wealth of the Nation: Who will do the jobs? (2019). Reflecting on the significance of this, the Director notes: ‘The modelling research was integral to our final report and greatly influenced our conclusions. As well as being very widely covered in the media, the report was well received by the policy and business community. Following on from the report, a new productivity index has been established by CBI Scotland - which I know that the Fraser of Allander Institute are helping to develop – supported by 24 recommendations for government’ [ S7]. This work also ‘directly led to the David Hume Institute raising significant additional funds for future work’, with GBP300,000 of funding being secured. The Director asserts that ‘our association with the research track-record and reputation of the FAI was a significant factor in being able to secure these funds’ [ S7].

Northern Ireland Executive

On the recommendation of the Scottish Government, in 2018 Strathclyde was tasked by the Northern Ireland Executive to build a bespoke sub-national CGE model that reflected the unique conditions of the Northern Irish economy. With ongoing support and training from the FAI team, this regional model has been used to understand different EU exit scenarios and guide appropriate policy responses to Brexit, including mitigating any challenges and taking advantage of any new opportunities. Confirming this, the Chief Economist within the Department for the Economy (DfE) states: ‘The research of the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) has been critical to improving our ability within the NI Executive to better understand those challenges and opportunities. This included some of the first published analytical insight in the much debated topic of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Ultimately the work with FAI helped bring new understanding around EU Exit alongside helping us in DfE and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) develop new analytical capabilities that will be used to inform economic policy for decades’ [S8].

European Commission

Stretching its influence beyond the UK, elements of the FAI CGE model have been integrated into the European Commission’s RHOMOLO Spatial Modelling Framework which supports EU policy makers to provide sector, region and time specific simulations on investment policies and structural reforms. As noted in the 2018 technical report, ‘the RHOMOLO model has been used with DG REGIO for the impact assessment of Cohesion Policy and structural reforms, and with the European Investment Bank for impact assessment of EU investment support policies’ [ S9 p.4]. Key Strathclyde contributions include enabling the separation of investment from saving decisions and the introduction of a fixed real wage assumption that allows it to operate as an extended I-O based demand driven model. These are acknowledged by the EC Scientific Officer for Regional Economic Modelling, who affirms that ‘the research that has taken place at Strathclyde in developing methods and techniques for regional CGE modelling have been essential building blocks for the RHOMOLO CGE model and for other regional modelling frameworks’ and that without this ‘it would have taken far longer to develop the sophisticated model that we have in place today, and which we use extensively in our policy analysis and policy evaluations’ [ S10].

By enhancing risk and reliability assessment methods, Strathclyde’s research has enabled companies to improve reliability growth analysis in new product development and risk analysis for complex projects. The research resulted in methods to address systemic technical and project risk problems recognised by industry but for which no coherent analytical models previously existed. The use of the methods has informed decisions to allocate resource for risk mitigation and resulted in new processes for industry in the UK and globally.

Enhanced risk and reliability assessment methods in international standards

The 2019 edition of the international standard ISO 31010 [ S1a] references Strathclyde methods developed in R2 and R3. This global standard aids users in selecting and applying risk assessment methods applicable for a wide range of contexts, including technological systems, engineered products and complex projects. Users include Grundfos, a Danish pump company for whom reliability is a key operating objective given the worldwide use of their pumps in critical infrastructure including water and energy systems, industrial processes, agriculture and irrigation. As confirmed by the company’s Senior Manager for Product Safety, ‘Grundfos engages with and adopts international standards, including ISO31010, because these represent best practice guides, developed through global collaboration and knowledge sharing, for assessing reliability and risk’ [ S2].

The international standard for reliability growth analysis, IEC 61164 [ S1b], reconfirmed in 2018 and adopted by national standards agencies (including the British Standards Institution), includes a model created by Quigley and Walls [ R3, R4]. Users of this standard include the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) directorate responsible for managing complex projects to procure, support and supply the services and equipment required by the three armed services. The senior MOD Dependability Engineer explains, ‘Standards, including IEC61164, are vital to my team because we use them to guide our response plans for major procurement projects. Such standards are valuable because they provide a common language to guide the MOD as procurer and the companies as contractors in developing useful frameworks for reliability assurance… Strathclyde expertise has led the development of these international standards’ [ S3]. This body of research [ R3, R4] has also informed the 2018 Issue of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) International Guidelines for Preparing Reliability Assessment Plans for Electronic Engine Controls (ARP5890). Acknowledging the inclusion of the approach based on Strathclyde’s methodological research as an example of aerospace industry best practice, the Chair of the SAE International Standards Aerospace Propulsion Division highlights that ‘this document has been cited by regulatory organisations (e.g. FAA) as the preferred approach in their rulemaking’ [ S4].

Improved reliability growth analysis when innovating engineering systems

The research led by Quigley and Walls resulted in novel methods to capture and express the rich engineering knowledge about uncertainties associated with technology innovation in order to enable meaningful assessment of reliability growth through product design and development [ R3, R4, R5]. Leading aerospace and defence companies with global markets continue to be impacted by this research over the period 2013-2020. For example, Rolls Royce Engine Controls, who were involved in the original REMM2 project, state that the resultant modelling guide authored by Strathclyde on the basis of R3 and R4, provided ‘a new way of approaching reliability growth analysis for the UK aerospace sector’ which ‘still forms the basis of the way we continue to approach reliability’ [ S4]. By enabling ‘the elicitation of structured judgement about engineering concerns’ and providing ‘a transparent mechanism to show how this translates to forecasts of reliability for new products’, the approach has resulted in ‘greater effectiveness and efficiency…during the product development process’ [ S4]. Likewise, Irvin GQ (whose products include aerial delivery solutions and rescue, safety and survival equipment) have used Strathclyde’s methods [ R3, R5], developed through multiple projects, to support reliability assessment. According to Irvin GQ’s Engineering Manager, the methods delivered a ‘combination of scientific ability and practical relevancy’ that has ‘allowed us to prioritize major technical risk drivers and to allocate product development resource’; this ‘has led to changes in our routine approach to reliability-in-design…to inform reliability assessment and the consequent decisions to be taken’ [ S5] . As a result, the research ‘impacted key engineering projects, as well as some standard operating practices’ [ S5] .

The application of analytical approaches (based on R3 and R4) through industry funded projects has also brought benefits to Leonardo MW Ltd, one of the biggest suppliers of defence and security equipment to the MOD. As outlined by Leonardo’s Emerging Technologies Manager, these range from ‘more effective and efficient internal processes for reliability in new product development through to contributing to the overall competitiveness of the business since reliability and supportability of our products is a critical operating objective’ [ S6] . Furthermore, ‘the process has allowed us to better manage technical risk in new product development and to deliver on strategically important programmes for innovative sensing technologies, for UK and international (North America, Europe and RoW [rest of the world] clients’ [ S6] .

Providing a customer perspective on the improvements made by such companies, the MOD’s Senior Dependability Engineer states that ‘Over the period 2014-2020 I have seen the real difference Strathclyde research has made to the approach contractors use for assessing reliability. This has enabled the MOD to be more effective in assuring the capability of the innovative equipment procured on behalf of the armed forces. This capability is paramount to successful defence operations’ [ S3].

Improved risk assessment in complex projects

Strathclyde research has led to new modelling methods being used to support risk-informed decisions across different lifecycle stages for systems in multiple industry sectors, as well as to support city resilience planning.

The Railway Safety & Standard Board (RSSB) objective is to lead and facilitate the British rail industry (the regulatory body, owners and maintainers of rail infrastructure, and operators of services on the rail network) to achieve continuous improvement in the health and safety performance of the railways in Great Britain (GB). RSSB have developed and maintain a Safety Risk Model (SRM), which is a quantitative representation of the risk arising from the operation and maintenance of the GB rail network and underpins the industry’s evidence and risk based approach to safety management. Strathclyde research on inference to support prediction of risks [ R5] was developed further through an RSSB funded research project to embed the inference methods within the company’s model [ S7]. As confirmed by RSSB’s Principal Risk Analyst: ‘The application and continued use of the University of Strathclyde work has been very beneficial in enabling RSSB to carry out our risk assessment and analysis work. By providing a risk profile of the GB rail network, the SRM informs design of safety management systems, supports development of long-term risk management strategies, feeds into cost-benefit analysis of risk mitigation actions and provides assurance that risk is managed in line with UK law’ [ S7]. More specifically, ‘Strathclyde’s research has enabled RSSB to overcome the little or no data challenge with rare events within the SRM allowing us to obtain robust estimates for infrequent safety events to the rail industry’ [ S7].

Using the modelling framework created as part of the energy consortium funded research project to manage risk in the real-time planning and scheduling of complex projects [ R6] allowed SSE Renewables to support installation strategy decisions for offshore wind farm projects. According to SSE Renewables’ Director of Engineering and Innovation, ‘Systemic risks related to weather downtime, vessel utilisation, activity durations, vessel reliability, etc., can make it extremely challenging to accurately predict the cost and duration of installation activities, which can consequently require developers to be more risk-averse when bidding in energy auctions by having to retain higher levels of contingency within a projects financial model’ [ S8]. Validated by two external organisations, the Strathclyde model has been embedded within the company’s processes so that the ‘Engineering team view the tool as an essential part of their toolkit, evidenced by SSE Renewables continuing to invest in the development and maintenance of the tool’ [ S8] . The new modelling has changed the level of bidding to the ultimate benefit of energy consumers. For the Beatrice wind farm (2016), analysis using the Strathclyde model ‘contributed towards the shareholder decision making process to sanction the project and the debt financing process for this major capital project’ [ S8]. Similarly, for the Seagreen and three Dogger Bank projects (2019), ‘the Strathclyde tool was used by both teams to develop and refine aspects of the bids’ , allowing SSE Renewables to reduce ‘the estimated capital expenditure within the project Financial Models by c. GBP20,000,000’ [ S8] .

Howick and Eden acted as expert witnesses in the largest ever arbitration case in Europe at the time (companies to remain anonymous), a multi-billion euro arbitration with respect to a claim for disruption in a complex construction project. Invited on the basis of their recognised expertise in modelling the causes of project overruns, Howick and Eden delivered four expert reports to the tribunal (2013-2016) and provided evidence at two hearings in 2016. Drawing on their research, including R1, Howick and Eden presented a case to the tribunal that demonstrated the other side’s simulation models (which were being used to evidence 70% of the case) were flawed and should not be relied on to determine the causes of the overrun. The tribunal accepted their arguments and concluded that the other side’s model was not reliable and thus should not be used to inform an award [ S9]. Confirming this contribution and the wider benefits to the international law firm involved, White & Case note: ‘In addition to the work performed by Dr Eden and Dr Howick within the arbitration process, their published research has been helpful in seeking to understand the science behind dynamic simulation and how it can be used in assessing and predicting project performance’ so that ‘lawyers within White & Case have been able to develop considered views of the strengths and weaknesses of the method in the context of construction claims’ [ S9].

In 2017, the Risk Systemicity Questionnaire (RSQ) (developed through the European Commission Smart Mature Resilience project, drawing on R1 and R2) was utilised by city planners in four European cities (Glasgow, Kristiansand, San Sebastian, Rome) to understand risk interdependencies and identify priorities [ S10a]. These analyses directly informed each city’s Resilience Action Plan, as well as improving internal communication between municipal departments. Taking the City of Rome as an example, use of the RSQ to identify priorities resulted in ‘a comprehensive outline of recommendations for an effective Resilience Action Plan based on a thorough, scientific-based risk assessment’ [ S10b] . These recommendations were subsequently implemented through various initiatives, including the development of early warning systems for extreme weather conditions.

Through sustained engagement with policy makers and other key entrepreneurial bodies and institutions at Scottish and UK levels, since August 2013 research conducted by Strathclyde’s Hunter Centre for Entrepreneurship (HCE) has:

• Informed Scottish Government policy and strengthened Scotland’s entrepreneurial ecosystem by providing evidence-based recommendations for stakeholders; and

• Supported the growth of Scottish Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs) through programmes designed to improve entrepreneurial leadership.

Informed Scottish Government policy and strengthened Scotland’s entrepreneurial ecosystem

Research undertaken by Strathclyde’s HCE informed the development of the Scottish Government’s Scotland CAN DO (SCD) strategy (published November 2013) and subsequent action framework (published April 2014) [ S1a]. Intended to drive business creation and growth through nurturing an entrepreneurial ecosystem which recognises the relationships between innovation and firm growth, SCD responds to the recommendation that an ecosystems management approach focused on deep engagement with stakeholders will be more effective than top down policy interventions [ R2]. This influence on policy is acknowledged by the former Head of Entrepreneurship and Enterprise Support Policy for the Scottish Government (2012-19), who was heavily involved in the design and implementation of SCD:

‘In set-up, scope and delivery, I collaborated extensively with academics from the Hunter Centre of Entrepreneurship (HCE), Strathclyde Business School. This research was essential in developing this ecosystem. I would note that the HCE is the ‘go-to’ academic institution to support the development of enterprise policy in Scotland and one of its most significant impacts is the contribution that HCE research has made to the Scotland CAN DO framework – the Scottish Government’s core enterprise policy… the contribution of the HCE to the REAP project and its resulting published findings [ R2] were fundamental for the Scottish Government and partners in developing the Scotland CAN DO agenda’ [ S1b].

Affirming this, the Chief Executive of the Entrepreneurial Scotland Foundation (ESF) notes, ‘HCE’s research and engagement with the entrepreneurial ecosystem and policy makers in Scotland has helped shaped Scottish government policy on entrepreneurship. HCE’s REAP [ R2] and GEM [ R1] research created the foundations on which the Scottish Government developed and adopted the Scotland CAN DO framework’ [ S2a]. This is reflected in the CAN DO strategy itself, which cites Strathclyde’s GEM research [ S1a p.13]. As noted in an ESF briefing, which draws on Strathclyde’s 2017 Global Entrepreneurship Development Index (GEDI) analysis commissioned by Scottish Enterprise, ‘this approach – along with the combined efforts of the entrepreneurial community – has seen Scotland’s support ecosystem ranked as the 5th most effective globally, up from 13th in 2013, and a doubling of the proportion of Scots actively trying to start a business’ [ S2b]. A key driver of this has been the Scottish EDGE fund, a competition aimed at identifying and supporting Scotland’s entrepreneurial talent which ‘embodies the CAN DO approach’ [ S3]. Now the biggest business funding competition in the UK, to date Scottish Edge has created 1858 jobs, supported 428 businesses, increased their turnover by GBP151,000,000 and leveraged GBP124,000,000 in additional investment [ S4a]. According to an independent evaluation conducted in 2019, over the previous 5 years the competition generated gross value added (GVA) of GBP67,900,000 for the Scottish economy; this represents a return on investment of GBP7.30 to GBP8.50 in net additional GVA for every pound of public money spent on the fund [ S4b].

As well as influencing government policy, Strathclyde has strengthened Scotland’s entrepreneurial ecosystem by providing research-based advice to key stakeholders. Responding to the recommendation that impact analyses take account of the different ways in which ‘growth’ is defined by entrepreneurs ( R3- R5), an evaluation undertaken by HCE in 2015 for Archangels Investors Ltd (an Edinburgh-based angel syndicate investing in high-risk, early stage knowledge intensive companies with growth potential) employed a mixed-methods approach to capture the economic impact of the syndicate’s activities as well as its commercial performance. As well as informing the company, this detailed evaluation supported the case for additional government funding [ S5a]. Reflecting on the benefits, the Archangels’ Managing Director observes:

‘Thanks to methodology developed for the evaluation, we have improved the way we measure our impact and thus we are continuously enhancing our processes and activities with significant benefits for the SME ecosystem in Scotland. Secondly, as this research has become embedded in our practices, we have noticed a significant increase in the number of investors participating in the syndicate’s activities and funding, as well as an increase in the number of SMEs being funded by our members’ [ S5b].

The report was also used by LINC Scotland, the national association for business angels in Scotland, to lobby the Scottish Government. According to LINC Scotland’s Chief Executive:

‘Research undertaken by the HCE, in particular the Archangels Impact Evaluation Report the launch of which the then Deputy First Minister John Swinney attended and spoke at, has helped make the case to the Scottish Government to replace the funding lost for the region since 2019 when the European Regional Development Fund stopped. This research demonstrated the significant return on investment accrued through investing in innovation-driven enterprises and we welcomed the announcement of the additional GBP100,000,000 to be provided by the Scottish Government through the Scottish Growth Scheme’ [ S6].

Supported growth of Scottish Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs)

Alongside influencing policy and strengthening the ecosystem, Strathclyde’s HCE has supported the growth of Scottish SMEs by shaping the design and delivery of a suite of leadership development programmes for entrepreneurs. Underpinned by HCE research evidencing entrepreneurial practices and competencies that help firms grow [ R3- R6], these programmes have focused on the sustained growth of established ventures as well as a bespoke accelerator programme for early stage, high potential firms to help scale their propositions. In doing so, HCE has responded to the REAP recommendations [ R2] that Scotland’s EE should be improved through better networking linkages, improved skills for growth and effective leveraging of university expertise to achieve these and promote innovation-driven entrepreneurship.

Through its design and delivery of the Growth Advantage Programme (GAP), Strathclyde’s HCE has had a positive impact on the growth outcomes of established firms. Piloted in 2015 with funding from Santander, GAP is now in its fifth cohort and has supported 83 founders in further growing their ventures. Partnerships with Scottish Enterprise (SE), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) and Glasgow City Council (GCC) have informed recruitment to ensure that participating entrepreneurs are well-placed to benefit from the programme. This is confirmed by SE’s Head of Scaling Services, who notes, ‘given the impact that GAP has had on the growth of participating ventures, we frequently recommend GAP to clients with ambition and potential to grow and to grow at scale’ [ S7].

Evidence of impact is provided by an evaluation of GAP undertaken in 2020 using a methodology approved by the ScaleUp Institute (SUI) and Arup. As outlined by the Chief Executive of SUI, this established that (relative to a control group of SMEs which has not participated in a growth programme) the average turnover and growth in employees of GAP participant firms was statistically significantly higher [ S8]. Further, the first cohort of participants experienced turnover growth of 17.6% one year after starting GAP with their cumulative turnover growth after 4 years rising to 70.7% [ S8]. This evaluation ‘established that participants upon completion of the programme had gained: improved management skills; increased confidence in leadership and decision making; motivation to grow the business further; liberation from every day-to-day management activities in order to lead the business more effectively [and]; a supportive network of peers [ S8]. Undertaken during the Covid-19 pandemic, it also ‘observed that the GAP programme had impacted the participants’ response to the pandemic and their ability to recover’, with the key benefits being ‘forward thinking, strategic thinking, capability to use business planning tools [and] access to support network’ [ S8]. As a direct result of this impact evaluation, GAP received the full endorsement of SUI making it one of only two UK entrepreneurial leadership development programmes informed by academic research and designed and delivered by a university.

Based on evidence of the benefits of GAP, Be the Business (an independent charity established in 2017 to boost the productivity of small businesses) invited Strathclyde’s HCE to help develop and deliver its leadership programme. According to the charity’s Chief Executive, through the work of Professors Lockett, Shaw and Anderson, HCE has ‘been critical to the roll out of our ‘Productivity through People Programme’; a mini-MBA for leaders of small businesses to develop their leadership and management capabilities’ [ S9a]. To date, Strathclyde has engaged with 39 participants across two cohorts and recently helped with the rapid creation of our ‘Rebuild Programme’; a resource for small businesses to support their recovery from the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic’ [ S9a]. Alongside this, HCE research also informed Be the Business’s ‘recommendation to the UK Government, leading to investment in the Small Business Leadership Programme and Peers Network in 2020’ [ S9a]. As reported by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), these ‘2 schemes represent a GBP20,000,000 investment by BEIS…to enhance resilience and recovery from the impact of COVID-19 and enable SME’s to develop their potential for future growth and productivity’ [ S9b].

Using evidence showing that entrepreneurs at different stages require different types of leadership development and support [ R3- R6], HCE worked with Glasgow City Council and Highlands and Islands Enterprise to design leadership development engagements for high potential innovation-driven entrepreneurs. Outlining the details of the GCC’s programme, the Group Manager for Business Growth notes: ‘Building on the impact of GAP on the growth of more established ventures, DRG have worked with HCE researchers, principally Professor Eleanor Shaw and Dr John Anderson to ask them to draw upon their research to design and deliver a similar programme but targeted at early-stage innovation driven enterprises. The resulting programme, iGAP@Tontine, was piloted in 2018 and our resulting impact evaluation of the programme evidenced that it was successful in providing participating entrepreneurs with access to a research-informed, peer to peer learning experience which specifically improved key objectives of the programme’ [ S10].

By evidencing the nature and implications of poor performance management practice in the public and private sectors, Strathclyde’s research has equipped UK trade unions to campaign effectively for Human Resources Management (HRM) reform to improve employment relations. Building on a wider body of research, this has been achieved through dissemination of Professor Taylor’s STUC report and the application of its findings by the Communication Workers Union (CWU), Unite the Union’s Finance and Legal Sector, Accord and the Public Commercial Services (PCS) Union. As a result of union activity, including senior management briefings and industrial action ballots, numerous public and private sector organisations have reviewed and improved their approach to performance management to the benefit of both employees and employers. Illustrative examples relating to British Telecommunications (BT), Pladis (formerly United Biscuits), Lloyds Banking Group (LBG), Trustee Savings Bank (TSB), HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and the UK Civil Service, namely the Ministry of Defence, are detailed below. The combined workforce of these organisations is more than 238,000 staff [ S1].

British Telecommunications

Taylor’s STUC research directly informed the Communication Workers Union’s campaign to persuade BT to end harsh treatment for under-performers and abandon forced distribution, both of which were causing considerable conflict and stress for staff. As a result, BT agreed a new performance management policy in 2017, incorporating the report’s recommendations. The outcome was a dramatic reduction in employee complaints about performance management within a year and the prevention of an imminent national strike. This is confirmed by Deputy General Secretary of the Communication Workers Union (CWU), who notes that, by providing ‘robust evidence that significantly informed and sustained our negotiations’, the report ‘made a major contribution to improving industrial relations between British Telecom and the CWU, benefiting many 1,000s of employees’ [ S2]. Outlining the specifics, he explains:

‘Drawing on Phil’s research, we made headway over three years in difficult negotiations. On 15 May 2017, the CWU reached agreement when BT dropped forced distribution, abandoned the punitive 5-rating system, moved to annual from bi-annual appraisals and shifted to a three-category (‘brilliant’, ‘good’ ‘work to do’) developmental model. Despite initial difficulties, the system’s roll-out system in 2018 led to a huge fall in employee complaints and tensions’ [ S2].

This is reflected in BT’s annual report for 2018 which notes that the company has ‘undertaken extensive consultation with unions, councils and employee representatives as part of a comprehensive global engagement strategy designed to engender positive employee relations’, leading to the simplification of its ‘performance appraisal process, reducing the frequency of assessment and the number of performance categories to free up time for line managers to talk with their people and focus on developing their capabilities’ [ S3a p.44]. Confirming the improvement in industrial relations, the subsequent report in 2019 stressed how BT has ‘worked constructively with our unions this year to agree a number of transformation initiatives’ and ‘undertaken extensive consultations…to make sure we maintain a healthy and positive relationship with our people’ [ S3b: p.45] This is reflected in the results of the BT-wide ‘Your Say’ employee engagement survey conducted in January 2019, which showed that the company ‘did better than previous years on all our value scores’ [ S3b p.18]. On the basis of the UK staff numbers given in BT’s 2018 annual report, these changes have benefitted at least 82,200 employees [ S1].

Pladis (formerly United Biscuits)

Taylor’s STUC report was also highly influential in the Unite the Union campaign which persuaded Pladis to withdraw their proposals for a new performance management programme in 2016. According to the Unite the Union Convenor of Pladis (who represents 350 engineering workers across the group), the ‘immensely informative’ report formed ‘the basis for a campaign against a change programme, which totally destabilised our previously harmonious industrial relations’ [ S4]. A video presentation outlining the research findings was circulated to union members and, by helping them to understand ‘the serious implications of forced distribution, rankings and ratings and performance improvement plans’, 98.6% voted in favour of strike action. This placed the union in a strong negotiating position which enabled them to ‘negotiate changes acceptable to both employers and employees, restoring stable and consensual industrial relations’. In doing so, Strathclyde’s research helped to prevent ‘industrial unrest, stress, mental ill-health and bullying’ [ S4]. Approximately 1,800 Pladis employees benefitted from these changes [ S1].

Lloyds Banking Group, Trustee Savings Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)

Unite the Union and Accord officials drew heavily on Taylor’s STUC report to advance negotiations with Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) and Trustee Savings Bank (TSB) to reform the unpopular system of performance management and appraisal operated by both banks. Articulated in the series of motions passed at union conferences between 2006 and 2014, discontent with forced distribution for individual appraisals was a longstanding concern on which very little progress had been made due to the lack of evidence to form a persuasive case for reform. As highlighted by the General Secretary of Accord, by 2014 ‘performance management was damaging employment relations like no issue had done previously’, evoking strong feelings ‘regarding unfair rating systems, their links to pay, the way the underperforming category was causing stress and the injustice of forced distribution [ S5]. By providing clear evidence of the negative effects of such practices, the STUC report enabled the unions to present a clear and convincing case for change, backed up with briefings to senior managers by Taylor himself. That this was game-changing is clear from the General Secretary account of the process through which meaningful change was achieved:

‘Prof. Taylor’s research had a major impact. He briefed TSB Senior People Management (21 August 2013) on ‘Alternatives to Performance Management’. He presented to Accord’s 2014 Conference which formed the basis of the case Accord then took to the Head of HR at LBG. Prof. Taylor wrote a briefing in 2014 for Accord negotiators. Informed by this research Accord gained improvements. In Spring 2016, TSB abandoned the distribution curve and moved to a world without targets. Finally, in May 2019, LBG drafted guidance removing pay links to individual performance, emphasising instead coaching and employee development. I am confident these hard-won changes represent an enduring improvement in employment relations to which Prof. Taylor’s research has made a significant contribution’ [ S5, with further documentation in S6].

The benefits are also acknowledged by the banks themselves, with LBG’s annual report for 2018 proclaiming transformation through the introduction of ‘more modern collaborative working environments’ and the development of ‘a new performance management system ‘Your Best’ which launched in January 2019’ [ S7a]. This was re-emphasised the following year, with the ‘continued roll out and embedding of Your Best, our transformational approach to performance management and career development’ being hailed as one of the ‘culture highlights from 2019’, involving ‘the biggest capability uplift for line managers ever seen across the Group’ [ S7b]. Reflecting on the advantages of the new approach, LBG’s Culture & Colleague Proposition Director observes: ‘spending less time on paperwork has freed up more time to focus on personal objectives and development goals, with regular catch-ups and transforms the way we work. With shared team objectives I’ve definitely noticed colleagues helping each other more and working better as a team, and this has led to a marked improvement in productivity’ [ S7c]. These sentiments are echoed by a Customer Service Adviser who recently posted their thoughts on the company website: ‘If I am being totally honest my initial thoughts were ‘great… here we go again, another session about how we should be a proper team working for each other not alone’, but I’m so happy to say I was wrong… Whilst Your Best is so much more than purpose, I believe that purpose is the reason we stopped being team mates and became friends. This obviously in turn changed the way we work - we became hard working for each other in our own roles which improved performance’ [ S7d].

Demonstrating a broad influence across the financial services sector, Taylor’s report also informed changes in policy and practice at HSBC and the Royal Bank of Scotland. According to Unite the Union’s National Officer for the Finance and Legal Sector, ‘Prof. Taylor’s evidence, combined with the impact of his numerous presentations to union and joint union-company seminars and conferences were decisive in enabling us to secure the removal of the most disliked policies and practices that had disrupted and soured employment relations’ [S8]. For example, following Taylor’s ‘participation as expert advisor in a meeting between HSBC’s European HR Management and Unite at Canary Wharf (10 March 2016) significant improvements took place, leading to annual pay rises no longer linked to performance by 2018’ [S8]. Likewise, in RBS ‘the most punitive elements of Performance Management have been jettisoned, replaced by more consensual forms of appraisal’ [S7]. Across the sector, these changes have benefitted over 120,000 employees [S1].

UK Ministry of Defence and wider Civil Service

In addition, Taylor’s research directly informed performance management changes in the public sector by enabling the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) Union to present a well-evidenced case for reform to the Ministry of Defence. As outlined by the Chair of the PCS Defence Sector Group, this led the MoD to adopt a new system from 2018: ‘Working closely with Professor Taylor, we developed a persuasive argument that the cost of the current policy was an estimated at £90m p.a. In early 2018 senior Departmental management announced their intention to abandon forced distribution and the punitive treatment of underperformers, replacing it with an appraisal system based on the principle of mutuality, which led to far more constructive employment relations. This successful outcome had implications for all 17 departments in the UK Civil Service’ [ S9].

According to the MoD, which publishes annual reports on Civilian Performance Management Outcomes, ‘the introduction of the new process saw the removal of guided distribution and relative assessment as the primary means of assigning performance ratings’ with the aim of being ‘fairer, more effective and more motivating’ [ S10a: p.19]. This put an end to the much-maligned ‘end of year moderation process’ which had allocated ‘all staff into three performance groupings against a target percentage’, requiring that ‘no less than 5%’ be flagged for performance improvement [ S10b p.2]. Drawing on the staff numbers reported, approximately 32,000 employees have benefitted [ S1].

By creating new methods and providing the basis of a coherent framework for evaluating cost-effectiveness, Strathclyde’s research improved analytical capacity at the WHO and the Global Fund to inform better healthcare resource allocation. By developing simulation modelling approaches, Strathclyde's research informed analysis that translated results into actionable evidence to NHS Scotland. Together, the Strathclyde research enabled both national and global decision-makers to formulate and implement policy to improve patient care and outcomes.

Influenced healthcare operations to improve patient care in NHS Scotland

A key challenge for NHS Scotland since 2013 has been the pressure on outpatient appointments, numbering around 4.5 million annually, but not all appointments need to be face-to-face. Working with the Scottish Government’s Whole System Flow Team, Strathclyde researchers modelled clinical and patient pathways and established an evidence base for new approaches to care. Van Der Meer led the creation of a simulation model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a virtual fracture clinic [ R1] which, according to the National Clinical Director, can ‘substantially reduce outpatient attendances in orthopaedic trauma care and free up resources to be used for patient services elsewhere in the healthcare system’ [ S1]. The Chief Operating Officer for NHS Scotland reported benefits of this work in 2014-17 for patients and the NHS: ‘The pioneering application of the Strathclyde research in the Glasgow Royal Infirmary has resulted in a 65% reduction in the number of first outpatient face-to-face attendances in orthopaedics. Based on detailed feedback from service users, patients are satisfied with the new pathway, the information provided and the outcome of their injuries. The overall cost per patient of the virtual pathway was GBP22.84 per patient compared with GBP36.81 for the traditional (non-virtual) pathway, a saving of 38% – which should be seen in the context of more than 120,000 patients per year requiring non-operative trauma care in Scotland’ [ S2]. Additionally, the Strathclyde modelling of the virtual fracture clinic at Glasgow Royal Infirmary supported the scale up of this service process redesign across the UK, and in the Republic of Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand and Australia [ S3]. Taking Ireland as an example, to date 22 hospitals have fully implemented the principles of fracture clinic redesign [ S3]. In order to extend reach, the Strathclyde team developed research-led training, delivered between 2016-2019, to ‘provide NHS Scotland staff with the modelling tools required to implement locally relevant plans for service redesign’ , and 82 alumni of this course now lead projects across NHS Scotland [ S1]. According to the National Clinical Director for Scotland, ‘The challenges of pathway redesign have … never been more important’ and the work of ‘Robert Van Der Meer and colleagues is destined to play a key supporting role in our plan to design and deliver a sustainable health system as we move into 2021 and beyond’ [ S1].

Two strands of work with NHS Scotland led to improved patient care in hospital and care homes during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Firstly, since March 2020, the researchers built discrete-event simulation models to forecast hospital capacity [ S4] [ R1, R3]. Recognising the importance of limited ICU beds, the Scottish Government and NHS Scotland were able to use the information generated by Van Der Meer’s modelling of critical care bed requirements for Covid-19 patients in NHS Lanarkshire to support timely preparations for the April 2020 peak of the pandemic in Scotland. According to the Chief Executive of NHS Lanarkshire, Strathclyde’s models informed the decision to convert ‘theatre capacity to double [the ICU] capacity’ from 30 to 60 beds ‘during the acute phase of the pandemic’ [ S5]. Understanding the timing of critical care bed requirements for Covid-19 meant that NHS Lanarkshire could balance care between Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients. This enabled non-Covid-19 procedures to proceed earlier than previously planned: since ‘a stay in ICU is literally the difference between life and death for a critically ill patient’ [ S5], the work of Strathclyde researchers helped by identifying where NHS Lanarkshire were ‘able to spare ICU capacity in order to admit and operate on high-priority non-Covid patients’ [ S5]. The Chief Executive of NHS Lanarkshire further reported that ‘the Strathclyde forecasting work has improved our ability to provide our frontline staff with predictability about work patterns and the operating environment – a significant contribution at a time of huge stress and uncertainty’ [ S5].

Secondly, an agent-based model built by Strathclyde researchers, drawing on R1 and R2, informed the management of patients in care homes in Lanarkshire. Approximately 40% of UK Covid-19 fatalities can be attributed to deaths in care homes. Strathclyde worked with staff in the local authority and met regularly with healthcare managers to align the creation of the agent-based simulation model with the challenges faced by the care sector. The National Clinical Advisor for Ageing and Health in Scotland recognised that Strathclyde’s modelling was ‘instrumental for making evidence-informed decisions and policy that likely saved lives’ [ S6]. Decisions taken on the basis of Strathclyde’s model were: increased testing for staff and reduced testing for residents; development of individual risk-based visitation plans; and creation of smaller units in larger care homes [ S5]. The National Clinical Advisor said that changing the testing strategy ‘saved approximately GBP8,400,000 in Scotland through December 2020 compared to the strategy in England to test residents every twenty-eight days, freeing up resources for more effective interventions’ and ‘potentially averted an estimated 9,250 Covid-19 cases among the 37,000 care home residents in Scotland over a period of 3 months’ [ S6]. The NHS Lanarkshire Chief Executive said that the results from Strathclyde’s modelling was ‘more timely and easier to justify than guidance from central government. In summary, the Strathclyde research has provided added value on top of the existing sources of advice available to us and helped us keep residents safe from harm, at the same time as implementing what are necessarily burdensome and disruptive safeguarding measures in a way which is risk-based and proportionate’ [ S5].

Influenced economic evaluation practice in global health organisations

The World Health Organization (WHO) appraisal practice was improved since 2016 by adopting a socio-technical analytical framework underpinned by Morton’s theoretical research. In 2020 the WHO chose to publish a public working paper [ S8] co-authored by Morton and referencing [ R4, R5]. This paper, based on Morton and Lauer’s research ‘was developed at WHO in the department of Health Systems Governance and Financing between 2016 and 2019 while being tested with staff in a number of WHO programmes’ [ S8].

By enhancing the analytical capacity at the WHO, the research influenced WHO policy making and thereby improved health outcomes by enabling the economic effects of high-profile investment cases to be better evaluated. Without such analysis, the potential consequences of specific investment asks would not have been included in decision making. The Team Lead for Value of Vaccines, Modeling and Economics at the WHO says of this framework that: ‘No single publication that I can name has been more influential in impacting positively on the quality of economic evaluation…than the paper by Morton and Lauer [which] has been useful in assisting both scientists and policymakers to integrate diverse disciplinary perspectives in formulating global recommendations on vaccine policy’ [ S7a]. This framework [ S8] provided the intellectual basis for investment cases for improved prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases (NCD) and improved global access to vaccination programmes in the period 2015-2020. A WHO analyst confirmed the framework’s impact and reach: ‘We applied these concepts in our work on a global investment case for noncommunicable diseases… as well as in approximately 30 country investment cases for NCDs that have since been done under the auspices of WHO’ [ S7b]. The countries affected include Barbados, Belarus, Fiji, Jamaica, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan, where, the WHO analyst said, ‘country investment cases… have proved to be important in mobilizing political support for the prevention and control of NCDs’ [ S7b].

The economic evaluation process used by Gavi, the global vaccines alliance, was improved by Strathclyde research. Gavi consolidates development aid for vaccines in LMIC from multiple government and philanthropic sources and distributes them based on WHO technical advice. Gavi protect nearly half of the world’s children through vaccination; between 2016 and 2019, it immunised 259,000,000 children, and prevented an estimated 1,500,000 deaths in 2019. The Executive Secretary of the WHO Immunization and Vaccine-related Implementation Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC), recognised the importance of economic evaluation for WHO strategy: ‘Economic evaluation is an important aspect…considered by the IVIR-AC in its recommendations to the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization, which is the highest global policymaking body for vaccines’ [ S7a]. The role of the framework [ S8] in this context was acknowledged by the Executive Secretary of the IVIR-AC : ‘I have had several recent occasions to use the work of Morton and Lauer’ [ S7a]. The framework is now being incorporated formally into a policy commentary on the Full Value of Vaccines Assessment [ S7a].

Strathclyde research was taken up by WHO officials. According to the Unit Head for Blindness and Deafness Prevention, Disability and Rehabilitation, ‘the work of Morton and Lauer has been useful in helping us to translate to policy-makers the impact of discrete health gains onto a set of broader social goals’ [ S7c]. These include investment cases for improved assistive technologies and deafness prevention which were adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2017/18 [ S9a,b]. Morton and Lauer’s research [ S8] also provided the basis for A Healthier Humanity: The WHO Investment Case for 2019-23 [ S7c]. According to an Economic Analyst involved, ‘the concepts contained in the What counts in economic evaluations in health? discussion paper were critical in defining the accounting framework for this flagship report’ [ S7b]. Furthermore, ‘this work continues to underpin ongoing investment cases at the global level, including for the elimination of cervical cancer, cancer treatment, hearing loss and rehabilitation programmes amongst others, where it provides critical methodological support and legitimacy’ [ S7b].

The Global Fund invests around USD4,000,000,000 billion a year to support programs run by local experts in countries and communities most in need. In 2014, ‘the Global Fund contracted with Professor Morton…as part of an international team to advise on the best way to use decision analysis techniques to develop and appraise the cost-effectiveness of country plans for tackling AIDS, TB submitted to Global Fund’ [ S10]. The team included internationally recognised researchers in infectious disease modelling from Imperial College London, Johns Hopkins, and the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute in Basel, with Morton contributing as an expert on decision making and economic aspects. According to the Chief Health Economist of the Global Fund, the engagement with Morton ‘positively contributed to the development of national strategic plans at country level and the robustness of countries’ case for support for funding’ [ S10]. The use of Morton’s framework by the Global Fund supported policy-makers and experts in Bangladesh, Mozambique and Sudan in allocating resource totalling USD779,000,000 (01-2019) in the period 2017-19 [ S10]. Positive feedback on the framework was received from in-country partners of the Global Fund and it was welcomed by officials from the beneficiary counties. For example, the Sudanese Ministry of Health official said, ‘we feel that it will add to the TB programme a lot’ [ S10]. In addition, Morton’s modelling methods helped the Global Fund to ensure ‘that equity and human rights issues are given appropriate priority in country’s plans, which is a priority for funders such as the UK Department for International Development (DFID) [ S10]. Finally, Morton’s research [ R5] influenced the Global Fund’s co-financing policy by providing a justifiable and intuitive rationale for cost-sharing between donor and recipient countries [ S10]. Going forward, the Global Fund ‘are continuing to work to further develop and codify good practice’ in the use of the framework [ S10].

By advancing macroeconometric methods to provide more accurate and timely information, Strathclyde has enhanced regional and national policymaking in the UK, Europe and USA. Specifically, the research led by Professor Koop and Dr McIntyre has:

• Supported analysis and decision-making to address regional imbalances in the UK economy by creating improved estimates of regional economic activity;

• Enhanced national and regional economic policy-making by strengthening macroeconometric analysis within UK, European and US financial institutions and government bodies.

Improved estimates of regional economic activity in the UK

As reflected in recent parliamentary inquiries, regional inequality is a pressing concern in the UK. With the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbating existing imbalances, the levelling up agenda has become firmly established and the demand for timely regional statistics to inform decision-making has increased. Seeking to support policymakers to drive and direct economic development at regional and devolved levels, over the last five years the Office for National Statistics has expanded its data sources and outputs. This includes producing regional GDP figures to provide a more granular breakdown of the UK economy. Initially released annually with a lag of almost a year, the ONS drew on VAT administrative data and other sources to produce quarterly regional estimates from 2019, reducing the lag in data acquisition to six months. It then drew on Strathclyde’s established research expertise through an ESCoE project to improve the timeliness and frequency of regional growth estimates further [ R5, R6]. Confirming this, the ONS notes: ‘to demonstrate that ONS can adapt to the needs of the modern user and help policymaking…we made the decision to adopt the approach developed by the Strathclyde team, to help produce faster estimates of regional growth using their econometric model, and all of the regional growth data that we produce (both annual and quarterly). What this has meant in practice is that we have worked with the Strathclyde team to embed their research and model within our methods. Specifically, and as part of the Levelling up strategy, the ONS has replicated the Strathclyde approach within the ONS production environment, with detailed plans to bring the nowcasting work of Strathclyde University into regular production’ [ S1]. As well as meeting with the ONS monthly ‘to discuss feasibility aspects and clarify any points around the method and outputs’, Strathclyde has ‘delivered comprehensive tailored training to explain the approach in detail to the ONS staff’ [ S1].

The importance of this new approach to estimating regional growth is apparent in the written submissions made by ONS to the Treasury Committee’s inquiry on regional imbalances in the UK economy (2019) and the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee’s inquiry on post-pandemic economic growth: levelling up local and regional structures and the delivery of economic growth (2020). Setting out the range of regional economic data that are currently available as an evidence base for regional policymaking, both sets of evidence refer to the Strathclyde-led ESCoE project (the outputs from which underpin R5 and R6), explaining that it ‘has developed a model-based approach to provide early views of regional economic activity, known as “nowcasts”’ which will enable the ONS to ‘provide a “flash” estimate similar to the UK’s early estimate of GDP”’ in support of the levelling up agenda [ S2a, S3]. The value of this work is further emphasised by the Director General of the Office of Statistics Regulation who wrote to the Chair of the Treasury Committee following his inquiry appearance to outline ‘the pathways towards providing enhanced regional economic statistics and their inclusion in official publication’. Listing nowcasts of regional GDP as one of four ‘building blocks for improved regional economic statistics’, he highlighted the fact that ‘HM Treasury does not currently include much by way of regional economic breakdowns in their budget report’ and suggested that ‘there might be considerable public good served by publishing some regional economic forecasts’ [ S2b].

This research also benefitted the devolved nations directly. For instance, Strathclyde’s nowcasting model [ R5, R6] has been used by the Scottish Fiscal Commission since 2017 to produce regular economic forecasts for Scotland. According to the Commission’s Chief Executive, ‘“now casting” the Scottish economy has helped us bridge the ragged edge between outturn data and the forecasts produced by our structural economic model. Since we started producing economic forecasts in 2017 we have made use of now casts produced by a model based on the Strathclyde approach’ [ S4]. Stressing that ‘it has been reassuring to know that the work is based on rigorous econometric foundations developed at Strathclyde’, he notes how much the Commission ‘appreciated the initial conversations with the Strathclyde team when we were building the now casting model’ [ S4].

In addition, the ESCoE research [ R5, R6] was used by businesses, broadcasters and the press to produce economic analysis and commentary to increase public and stakeholder understanding of regional economic growth. For instance, the macroeconomics team at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), utilised the ‘new set of estimates of quarterly and annual regional growth dating back as far as 1972 that has been published by ESCoE’ alongside ONS data on real output growth by region to explain the ‘increasing economic growth divide between London and other regions’ [ S5a]. This was published in PwC’s UK Economic Outlook report which is circulated to the company’s global network of firms as part of its Connected Intelligence programme. The Financial Times also drew on the estimates, emphasising ‘the importance of the ESCoE exercise’ in addressing the limitations of existing regional economic data which is no longer relevant by the time it is published [ S5b]. Referring to the regional recession which hit the north east of England in 2016, commentary produced in November 2018 observed that ‘policymakers did not learn about this contraction until December last year and, even then, only a growth figure for the year as a whole was published’. Outlining how ‘ESCoE have tried to solve this problem by using econometric techniques to develop a “nowcast’, the article draws attention to the fact that ‘just two weeks after official data suggested the UK was growing at an annual rate of 1.6 per cent, the ESCoE nowcast indicates the north east is growing at roughly half that rate, or 0.8 per cent’ [ S5b]. The value of these nowcasts to policymakers, if they choose to act, was stressed.

Strengthened econometric analysis within financial institutions and government bodies

As illustrated by the following examples, application of Strathclyde’s modelling methods by financial institutions and government bodies in the UK, Europe and the USA has enhanced national and regional economic policy-making. Strengthening inflation trend analysis and forecasting has been particularly beneficial, enabling timely interventions to be made.

To support ongoing analysis of global economic trends, the Bank of England drew directly on Koop’s index of financial conditions research [ R2] to calculate its own Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) ‘to summarise information from the following financial series: term spreads, Interbank spreads, corporate spreads, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, policy rates, equity price returns, equity volatility, house price returns and credit growth’ [ S6a,b]. This has enabled it to conduct analyses to monitor global economic and financial market developments. For example, in 2018 the FCIs based on Koop’s index were used to analyse global financial conditions (showing they had tightened but remained accommodative overall) [ S6a, pp.3,7] and to calculate financial conditions in non-China emerging market economies (evidencing a tightening) [ S6a pp.6-8]. These findings were set out in the Bank’s inflation reports for August and November which informed the interest rate decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee.

Building on earlier ESRC-funded collaborative research [ S7a], in 2019 Professor Koop worked with the European Central Bank (ECB) Business Cycle Analysis Division to evaluate the importance of the Phillips curve, the standard theoretical and empirical benchmark showing the relationship between real activity and inflation, following the financial crisis. Published in a ECB working paper to support policy deliberations and decision-making within European institutions, this research confirmed the existence of a Phillips curve in the euro area and provided reassurance that it ‘is still a valid policy instrument once it is robustly estimated’ [ S7b]. Reflecting on the importance of this work, the ECB Senior Economist who was involved (now a project leader at the European Commission) notes that ‘Prof. Koop has contributed to a major breakthrough in forecasting and modelling’ [ S5]. As well as being used ‘routinely to handle large quantities of data’, his techniques have and continue to be ‘directly applied to the analysis of the Phillips curve and price dynamics, and provide an important and increasing contribution to the forecasting framework of the ECB, more and more relying on Big Data frameworks’. Significantly, ‘the ECB’s forecasting framework is the main process that informs policy reports and Central Bank communication, and provides advice to the Executive Board’ [ S8]. The recognised value of Koop’s research [ R3, R4] to European policy-making is also apparent from his inclusion in a ‘specially constituted Nowcasting group currently monitoring economic developments in real time during the COVID-19 crisis’ [ S8]. The Project Lead at the European Commission (formerly the ECB Senior Economist) confirms that Koop’s ‘Model Averaging techniques are at the moment the backbone of our Nowcasting framework, and they allow to combine the information stemming from different models and from the use of traditional and large quantities of Big Data to produce a weekly update of the nowcast to be sent to DG-ECFIN and to the Cabinets’ [ S8]. The Directorate‑General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG-ECFIN) is the Commission department responsible for EU policies promoting economic growth and recovery, higher employment, stable public finances and financial stability. Attesting to its broader relevance and application, aspects of this work have recently been published in a European Central Bank working paper to inform analysis and policy-making [ S7c].

Koop’s research [ R1, R2] has also supported econometric analysis and policy-making within two of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks in the USA. These form part of the Federal Reserve System which serves as a central bank for the USA with the aim of providing stable monetary policy and a safe and flexible financial system. According to the former Director of Economic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1998-2019) who ‘was responsible for briefing the Bank President for the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve’, inflation research conducted with Koop ‘allowed me to provide timely and insightful analysis of a number of critical issues’ [ S9]. The Head of the Macroeconomics Group within the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, also acknowledges the ‘tremendous value and influence’ of Koop’s research, specifically the development of a new model ‘for assessing trends in inflation and forecasting future inflation’ [ S10]. Stretching its influence nationally, he notes that, ‘our model has also been used in a number of other central bank studies of inflation trends and forecasts’ to inform economic policy-making [ S10].

Within the context of rising rates of in-work poverty and worsening pay and conditions for low-paid workers, Strathclyde research around the real Living Wage (LW) informed policy and practice in the UK by providing robust evidence of the benefits for businesses as well as employees. Specifically, the research:

• Increased the number of UK accredited Living Wage employers and advanced the development of a global Living Wage standard by demonstrating the business case for adoption.

• Informed UK, Scottish and Welsh government policy to improve public and voluntary sector pay and conditions by evaluating practice and providing evidence-based recommendations.

Increased UK Living Wage accreditation and advanced a global Living Wage standard

As a critical first step in overcoming resistance to LW adoption, Strathclyde’s business case research provided evidence of the benefits for employers [ R3]. As noted by the Deputy First Minister for the Scottish Government at the launch of the report in January 2015, ‘the knowledge exchange project, carried out by the University of Strathclyde and the Living Wage Foundation – and commissioned by Barclays – gives evidence of the business benefits of paying the Living Wage. It isn’t simply good for individuals, it is also good for companies. It helps to increase staff retention, reduce absenteeism and enhance businesses reputation’ [ S1a].

Having demonstrated these benefits, Strathclyde’s report was used by the LWF from January 2015 to persuade employers to adopt the LW, become accredited LW employers and defend this position to stakeholders. Reflecting on its significance, the LWF’s Assistant Director confirmed that, ‘since publication, the research has been instrumental in helping the Living Wage Foundation to make the case to employers to pay the Living Wage, highlighting both the financial and non-financial impact of the Living Wage in creating value, and providing practical advice about implementation and measurement of the Living Wage in UK businesses’ [ S2].

More specifically, the report was ‘used as an engagement tool in conversations with prospective employers’, with its case studies and insights being ‘embedded in the Living Wage Foundation’s core presentations to employers, local authorities, policy-makers, civil society organisations and campaigners to build understanding and awareness of the Living Wage’ [ S3]. Trade unions have also drawn on it to explain and evidence the argument for a Living Wage to members and their employers. For instance, since 2015 UNISON (one of Europe’s largest unions with more than 1.3 million members, 70% of whom are women) has referenced the report in its Campaigning, organising and negotiating for a Living Wage guidance. The version issued in September 2015 contained an appendix on the business case, with a link to the full report, alongside a letter template to facilitate communication with employers which draws attention ‘to the clear business case for implementing the Living Wage’ [ S4a pp.14-15]. Clearly considered of benefit, reference to the report was carried through to UNISON’s Bargaining for the living wage guide (last updated 2018) which includes quotes from Barclays, Penrose Care, SSE and PricewaterhouseCoopers ‘to reflect the positive experiences of major organisation that have introduced the Living Wage’. It also advises that ‘the information set out in this section can be selectively incorporated within an annual pay claim or launched as a separate initiative’ [ S4b p.4].

As a result of this activity, ‘since the research was undertaken in 2014, the number of accredited Living Wage employers has risen from around 1000 to almost 7,000 across the UK, including over 40% of the FTSE 100’ which ‘has led to pay rises for over 240,000 employees and put over £1bn back into the pockets of low paid workers’ [ S2]. Moreover, the case study evidence has had impact across the business supply chain. The extension of the LW to service contracts is a clear example of this, as noted by the Emeritus Chair of the LWF Board in November 2017: ‘The Service Providers Leadership Group used the report in their discussions with prospective clients to encourage the adoption of Living Wage compliant service contracts. By their estimation some 60-80% of cleaning contracts by the major service industry players are now paying a living wage’ [ S2].

Evidence from Barclays obtained through Strathclyde’s case study research has subsequently been reproduced in the Living Wage Investor Toolkit (2020). Aimed at encouraging investors to engage their portfolio companies on fair pay and encourage them to become Living Wage accredited employers, this toolkit is as an important part of the Build Back Better campaign to mitigate the impact the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses. Launched by the LWF and ShareAction in September 2020, the toolkit notes how Barclays gained reputational benefit as a sustained by-product of paying the LW, which has helped the company to offset the additional cost of paying the LW. It also affirms the importance of long-term value drivers as outlined in the business case, with Barclays stressing that ‘being an accredited Living Wage Employer is a practical demonstration of our values in action’ [ S5]. Reference was also made to the business case and report in the design of a survey of LW employer experience by Cardiff Business School, which was commissioned by the LWF in 2017 and addressed to all accredited employers [ S6].

By encouraging and supporting implementation of the LW, this sustained activity has positively affected employment conditions. Taking Scotland as an example, LW accreditation has played a key role in improving security of employment across the country. According to recent analysis undertaken by the Fair Work Convention, ‘of the 5 dimensions of fair work, security has seen the most improvement in the past 5 years. The Convention’s composite measure of security of employment, hours and pay shows that security of work in Scotland has improved, largely due to improvements in the real living wage’ [ S7 p.7]. More specifically, ‘the proportion of employees (18+) earning less than the real living wage decreased from 19.6% in 2015 to 15.2% in 2020’ [ S7 p.43]. Testimonials shared on the Living Wage Scotland website speak to this and the broader social and economic benefits, with Dumfries and Galloway Council considering ‘accreditation as the most important contribution to tackling poverty across Dumfries and Galloway’ and Fords Daly Legal observing that ‘it's helped the business become more robust and able to weather challenges due to the dedication and commitment of staff’ [ S1b].

Furthermore, due to the success of the UK Living Wage campaign, the report has gained international attention. As well as supporting the establishment of Living Wage groups in Hong Kong and the USA [ S2, S8], it has shaped the development of a global Living Wage Standard [ S2] and directly informed public policy in Ireland. Shortly after the report launch in 2015 , ‘the report was distributed to employers at an Irish Government convened meeting in Dublin which initiated a government policy discussion on productivity and the Living Wage’, as a result of which the opposition party, Sinn Fein, ‘adopted a Living Wage as their official policy on low pay’ [ S6]. Affirming the global influence of the LWF’s work in relation to the UN Sustainable Development goals, the CEO and Executive Director of the UN Global Compact, the world’s largest corporate sustainability initiative, has commended ‘the UK Living Wage Foundation for the lead it is showing in promoting the business case for the payment of a decent level of income and demonstrating how it can be adopted in practice’ [ S9] . On this basis they have urged ‘all employers to review their policies and practices in relation to this matter and to commit themselves to making what would be a very significant contribution to the achievement of the UN’s transformational vision’ [ S9].

Informed government policy to improve public and voluntary sector pay and conditions

As well as using the report to convince organisations to adopt the Living Wage, Barclays PLC employed Strathclyde’s report [ R3] to inform MPs and policy makers of the evidence for the business case for a Living Wage. Following the report launch in 2015, they circulated the report within the UK Government, including members of the APPG on Poverty and Ministers and Secretary of State in the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). The research was then used as a point of reference in the Secretary of State’s discussion with the Permanent Secretary about DWP paying the Living Wage and ensuring compliance with Treasury Guidelines on pay [ S6]. Strathclyde’s research has also helped to convince national and local governments across the UK to apply the Living Wage in procurement processes. As confirmed by the Living Wage Foundation Assistant Director: ‘Policy makers in Scotland and Wales have adopted the Living Wage in public sector contracts, as have over 80 councils across England. The Living Wage campaign has impacted national policy and minimum wage levels, most notably influencing the introduction of the governments ‘National Living Wage’ - a high minimum wage for over 25s which came into effect in April 2016 ’ [ S2].

In tandem with this, Cunningham’s research on policy and delivery in the Social Care sector [ R6] informed the work of the Scottish Government’s Living Wage Implementation Group (LWIG) in social care from 2018 onwards. As acknowledged by the Scottish Government representative on the group: ‘the independent research was useful in supporting LWIG to fulfil its role in a more evidenced-based way: it provided more in-depth analysis of the issues and made suggestions for both national and local organisations’ [ S10]. Details of how the report was used and its influence on policy and guidance have also been confirmed by the Scottish Government:

‘Your draft report was shared with LWIG and we were pleased that you and your colleagues came to present the findings which allowed for more in-depth discussion with the research team. The findings had implications for future policy and practice in particular for updating our guidance for implementing the real living wage. Following your presentation the LWIG took the decision to discuss the findings at subsequent meetings. Officers from COSLA and Scottish Government met with other networks e.g. commissioners to discuss the findings. We grouped the findings into themes and used them primarily to update and strengthen the living wage guidance which was issued in October 2019 ’ [ S10].

More specifically, the recommendations from the research supported the Implementation Group’s work by making the process of agreeing costs more transparent, defining costings, clarifying expectations around overnight support and promoting collaboration. Following on from this, Cunningham’s research was used by the Social Care policy in the newly established Fair Work in Social Care Group to develop recommendations on fair work. It was also adopted in the Joint Scottish Government/COSLA Adult Social Care Reform Programme’s commissioning and procurement work-streams and improved procurement in Social Care [ S10].