Impact case study database

It is estimated that by 2050, 2 billion people in developing nations will be exposed to serious earthquake risk [E1]. University of Cambridge research, and the co-founding by Jackson of Earthquakes without Frontiers (EwF), has increased the resilience of developing nations to earthquake risk through the retrofitting of buildings and the development of improved building codes; improved hazard assessment and city development planning; and a shift in the political understanding of managing earthquake risk which is the result of the empowerment of local scientists and has led to improved public safety policy. Cambridge research in the South Caspian sea region has also led to safer and more cost effective hydrocarbon exploration.

Retrofitting of buildings and development of new building code has led to safer and more resilient buildings

In the 2015 earthquake in Nepal, 98% of the nearly 9,000 deaths were caused by collapsing buildings. In Kathmandu, 300 buildings retrofitted to increase earthquake resilience by the National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET) all survived [E2]. NSET attributed their success in securing and delivering construction contracts in Nepal, both before and after the earthquake, to their collaboration with EwF: ‘EwF definitely did help raise the trust of many bi-lateral agencies and other partners on NSET and our approaches, which we could refine and polish due to our association in EwF’ [E2].

Following the earthquake in Nepal, key findings relating to impact and resilience from Jackson and colleagues were presented to DFID, UNESCO and the Nepalese government. These reports were, as the UK government Chief Scientist explained, ‘highly valued by the [FCO and DFID] for use in their operational planning’ [E3]. The Nepalese government used these reports to guide a new building code to improve earthquake resilience. Amongst the organisations awarded contracts for re-building work following the 2015 earthquake in Nepal were the EwF-affiliated NSET, who have been awarded a USD 10 million contract by USAID for the rebuilding of more than 50,000 residential properties and thousands of schools [E2]. The new building code is being used to guide the construction of new schools that are earthquake-resistant, thereby greatly reducing the risk of building collapse and death, and allowing children to attend school without fear.

Improved hazard assessment and planning reduces risks from earthquakes

Cambridge research showed that devastating earthquakes almost invariably take place on faults that were either previously unknown, or whose threat had not been recognised. In Asia there are thousands of active faults which could slip to cause an earthquake at any time, not all of which have been identified. In Tehran – a city of over 10 million people – EwF has addressed this problem by identifying the Pardisan fault, thereby improving hazard assessment and subsequently changing planning policy. The Geological Survey of Iran states that: ‘Collaborations through EwF have provided the possibility of identifying major hidden … faults ... [for example] … identifying and studying the active hidden Pardisan fault within the capital city of Tehran which was a major step in evaluating the earthquake hazard to Tehran’ [E4]. On the back of the University of Cambridge EwF assessment, the Iranian government ‘decided to revise the city development plan considering the new findings’ [E4].

Empowerment of in-country scientists leads to improved public safety policy

Prior to EwF, the predominant view in developing nations was that earthquakes are predictable, so governments needed only to demand short-term predictions from scientists. A system had evolved in which (a) no action was taken on mitigation; (b) maps of seismic hazard were decades old and largely incorrect; and (c) research in modern or innovative directions was rarely encouraged [E1, E4, E5, E6]. As the US Geological Survey (USGS) makes clear, ‘Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future’ [E7]. In any case, what is needed is to lower the vulnerability of infrastructure and improve the accuracy of hazard assessment and the monitoring of faults, solutions proven in the USA, Japan and elsewhere. Faith in short-term forecasting endured partly because of a lack of local scientific expertise within developing nations. EwF has helped to address this within the framework of a supportive international partnership, through the empowerment of local scientists attached to 26 international partners across 11 different countries. The UNESCO Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics describes how ‘EwF contributed effectively in fighting against the brain drain and isolation of scientists in developing countries’ [E5]. EwF is ‘clearly unique…it builds a tradition and legacy not like other initiatives which have hampered the development of in country science and discourage any growth of sustainable local research in the developing world’ [E5].

EwF also contributed to increasing ‘ the credibility and reputation of the EwF partnership members in their own countries’ [E5]. This has influenced the political mind-set, as described by the National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET): ‘The presence of people from Italy, Nepal, China and Iran all saying the same things to politicians had more impact than in isolation’ [E2]. This has had an impact on public policy in terms of the development of building codes, the retrofitting of buildings, and the revision of city development planning, but it has also shifted the political focus of public safety policy away from short term prediction and towards increasing resilience. In Pakistan, for example, the National Disaster Management Agency has ‘started investing in preparedness and prevention rather than being just a post-disaster agency’ [E5].

Safer and more cost-effective hydrocarbon exploration

Hydrocarbon exploration in the Caspian Sea is high risk as a result of earthquakes and over-pressured sub-surface fluids, but attracts huge investments. These include more than USD 50 billion in the Kashagan field [E8], and a USD 6 billion BP project with Azerbaijan [E9]. The Arup Geohazard and Risk Management Team delivers natural hazard and risk assessment projects for clients worldwide including The World Bank, BP, Shell, HSBC, and others. Jackson and colleagues have advised Arup on assessment of seismic hazard and risk to:

• BP, for their offshore facilities in the Central Caspian region. As Arup have testified, the ‘alignments of mapped geological faults and their characteristics were essential for the seismic hazard assessment’ [E10].

• BP’s gas processing and export facility at Sangachal in Azerbaijan, one of the world's largest oil and gas terminals. Jackson was able to share recent research on the depth at which earthquakes occur in the region. This insight had a ‘ significant impact on the calculated earthquake ground shaking that would potentially occur at the surface and resulted in a safer and more cost-effective design for the oil and gas facilities’ [E10].

Worldwide, 500 million people live in areas at risk from volcanic eruptions [E1]. The spectrometer networks first developed by Edmonds and colleagues at the University of Cambridge have been adopted by volcanological observatories on 42 volcanoes (27 since 2013) across 18 countries and five continents [E2, E3]. They are used to protect life, property and livelihoods through forecasting eruptive activity and informing critical decisions on evacuations and exclusion zones; to allow safe industrial re-development; and – through the ABOVE project resilience programme (Aerial-Based Observations of Volcanic Emissions) - to allow the Manam islanders to remain on their island.

Forecasting Eruptive Activity and providing warning of imminent eruptions

The Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences (GNS), New Zealand, were among the first government bodies to develop a spectrometer system based on the design Edmonds and colleagues pioneered. Senior Scientist at GNS, Dr Craig Miller, states [E4]:

‘the UV scanning spectrometer network installed by Edmonds, Oppenheimer and colleagues in Montserrat provided the template for GNS volcanologists to develop a similar system at White Island, New Zealand. It is used for monitoring volcanic activity at this hazardous and unpredictable volcano. An increase in gas flux, along with increased levels of seismicity and ground deformation, would significantly increase the probability of eruption and consequently the alert level at the volcano, which is used for decision-making surrounding issues such as restricting access and warnings to the public’.

In October 2019, SO₂ fluxes measured by the scanning spectrometers (and accompanying tremor) at White Island increased to the highest levels since 2016, suggesting an eruption was imminent over the coming weeks and months [E5, 6]. On 18 November 2019, the alert level was raised to ‘2’ (the highest before eruption) signalling ‘heightened volcanic unrest’ and ‘potential for eruption hazards’ [E7].

Tragically, an eruption on 9 December 2019 killed 19 people. In this case, clear warnings were not heeded, and preventative action which could have saved lives was not taken.

At Volcán Tungurahua (Ecuador), 30,000 people live in areas at risk from pyroclastic flows and lahars. A spectrometer system based on the Cambridge design was installed in 2004. Eruptions in 2013, 2014 and 2016 have had considerable impacts on livelihoods, particularly agricultural activities (with crops damaged and land made unusable due to the deposition of volcanic ash). The scanning spectrometer stations provide SO₂ flux data for the assessment of risk and early warning of eruptions. In February 2014 >600 people were evacuated after alert levels were raised in response to increasing SO₂ flux (to over 2000 tonnes per day), as well as increased rates of earthquakes and ash venting at the summit:

‘The automatic scanning DOAS stations as first developed at Soufriere Hills

Volcano, and which nice results have been shown by Edmonds and colleagues in 2003,

have been widely adopted by volcanological observatories over the past 15 years… At Tungurahua, we installed 2 DOAS systems directly based on the Montserrat UV

spectrometer system, the UV scanning spectrometer network yielded important data which,

when used in combination with other monitored parameters as seismic activity, allowed us

to assess hazard levels and advise local authorities on the general level of volcanic

activity’ [E3, Instituto Geofisico, Ecuador] .

Providing critical input into mandatory exclusion zones

In Montserrat, the eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano ceased in 2011, yet it remains restless. One key characteristic is continued high flux of SO₂, as measured by the spectrometer network, leading the government to retain an exclusion zone around the volcano. The Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) and Scientific Advisory Committee (British Foreign Office) continue to rely on the SO₂ flux data to assess whether the eruption is over or has merely paused. The March 2019 MVO Scientific Report [E8] states:

‘the potential for continuing activity has been considered against the following three criteria:

1. Seismicity

2. Gas – daily SO₂ emission rates above 50 tonnes per day

3. Ground deformation

Criteria 2 and 3 are currently being met.’

Consequently, the volcano remains in an elevated state of unrest, with an exclusion zone including over half the island.

Allowing safe industrial re-development

However, on Montserrat, the monitoring networks are now making economic recovery possible. The Government has permitted a geothermal plant to be established in the exclusion zone, a decision informed by advice from the MVO, based partly on gas flux information. The Director of the MVO [E9] states:

‘In 2014 the Government of Montserrat gave permission for a geothermal company, the Iceland Drilling Company , to begin operations generating two boreholes from which it was projected that much of the island’s energy needs would be provided. A third well is planned for 2020. This permission was based on advice from the Montserrat Volcano Observatory on volcanic risk; gas fluxes were one part of the critical evidence upon which the low risk level for that particular area was assigned.’

Test results indicate that geothermal power could generate more electricity than is needed by the island, freeing it from reliance on diesel-powered generators – among the most expensive electricity in the world – and reducing CO₂ emissions by replacing fossil fuel generated electricity [E10].

Allowing islanders to remain on their land

The ABOVE project, led by University of Cambridge researchers Liu and Edmonds, involves field campaigns to Papua New Guinea volcanoes Rabaul and Manam to deploy UAV gas sensors and train local people in these techniques. Manam is a small island with > 2000 people, who are regularly evacuated to the mainland during eruptions every few years (there have been nine since 2000). Islanders live with extreme volcanic risk, as permanent relocation is unacceptable because the island is essential to their way of life and rehoming on the mainland brings risk of conflict. The UAV technology and training provided by the ABOVE project offers a means for them to remain. An ABOVE project video includes interviews with local people:

‘Those major eruptions [in 2004] were never addressed properly by the government… we have been waiting for 15 years and nothing is happening… We are regarded as IDPs – Internally Displaced Persons - on our own land.’[E11].

The ABOVE project provides equipment and training to the local volcano observatory to continue measurements of gas fluxes using UAVs. One representative from each province in Papua New Guinea came to the training workshop in February 2019 and, thereafter, successfully lobbied provincial governments for additional funding [E1]. The islanders had relied on visual monitoring, but now fly UAVs over the volcano to monitor gas flux and activity to see what and who is most at risk, allowing them to remain on their own land.