Impact case study database

The architecture of offshore hydrocarbon reservoirs is a persistent concern for the oil and gas industry and, without clear geographical mapping, these structures can jeopardise hydrocarbon production and increase drilling costs. Application of Cardiff University’s 3D seismic techniques with international industrial partners ensured £500M in savings for the oil and gas industry .

4.1 Petrobras: Brazil

Cardiff University’s research delivered impacts for Petrobras, the leading oil and gas company in Brazil, on two major hydrocarbon projects: the Lula Field (Southeast Brazil) and Pará-Maranhão Basin (Equatorial Brazil). The Lula Field is the third largest oil field in the world, while the Pará-Maranhão Basin comprises an exploratory frontier with untapped, deep-water prospects on a poorly defined continental margin. Both areas contain important oil and gas fields in strata deposited during continental breakup.

At the Lula Field, located in the Santos Basin, Cardiff University’s 3D seismic modelling identified the full economic potential of pre-salt prospects occurring >5km below the sea floor. Dr Marcos Roberto Fetter Lopes, Manager for Tectonics, Structural Geology and Geomechanics, Petrobras, stated that Cardiff provided “ the first complete assessment of the Lula Oil field”, a site estimated to contain “more than 50 billion barrels of oil, being one of the largest petroleum provinces in the world, still to be fully explored and developed” [5.1].

Cardiff University’s assessment of Lula Field was adopted by Petrobras, enabling the company “ to identify four separate sites as a larger system, saving the company considerable time and resources, and allowing more strategic decision-making when exploring the [Lula] oil field” [5.1]. Cardiff’s work also provided Petrobras with an assessment of potential new drilling sites in Pará-Maranhão Basin and a wider knowledge of the geology of key prospects in Brazil’s deep-offshore basins. This was disseminated through Cardiff-delivered training and field courses, first in 2013 and then 2019, leading to “Petrobras being able to develop a detailed assessment of the petroleum potential of this [Pará-Maranhão Basin] site, and the decision to explore/not explore… representing a significant financial investment/savings” [5.1].

Parallel to work on the Lula Field, training courses (informed by Alves’ research) were delivered to Petrobras’ geologists and engineers; these allowed them to evaluate seismic data using Cardiff’s principles. Cardiff University’s research and guidance extensively influenced company practices on new exploration strategies, and resulted in substantial savings, with the company stating: “we estimate gross savings to Petrobras of around $500M (£402M)” [5.1].

4.2 Partex Oil and Gas and the RAFTS consortium: West Africa

Between 2013 and 2015 a consortium of five companies, including Partex Oil and Gas, TOTAL, and ACREP, funded a Cardiff-led research project (RAFTS) that analysed fault families in West Africa and associated reservoir successions deposited during continental breakup. Specifically, the work explored the potential of the Lower Congo Basin. As cited by Luís Guerreiro, Exploration and New Ventures Manager for Partex Oil and Gas, Block 17/06 offshore Angola is “ an area of great economic interest to Partex Oil and Gas and concession partners” with “ an estimated volume of hydrocarbons of 300 million barrels of oil” [5.2].

As part of RAFTS, Cardiff researchers delivered technical reports, presentations, and field training courses on the petroleum potential of Block 17/06 offshore Angola. After this integrated analysis of the area, Cardiff University’s insights led to widespread changes in exploration strategies for the companies involved: “ Both the RAFTS project and ancillary field course have led to important changes in practice within Partex Oil and Gas and associated partners” [5.2].

Cardiff University’s research “ contributed to a wider, more complete knowledge of key oil and gas prospects in the region” [5.2]. Development planning for the RAFTS consortium included advising about high-risk areas containing increased levels of natural gas that would need to be disposed or re-injected back into the crust. As a result, Partex Oil and Gas confirmed that Cardiff University’s “ project deliverables were key in the decision making process within Partex Oil and Gas, and associated partner companies, leading to a gain of £100M” [5.2].

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4.4 Summary

Research at Cardiff University helped global oil and gas companies to more efficiently explore and extract hydrocarbons by analysing off-shore continental ‘Breakup Sequences’. [Text redacted].

Cardiff collaborated with the top four gold mining companies in the world, as measured by output, to develop more efficient exploration strategies and methods for locating mineral resources. Working with [text redacted], Barrick Gold Corporation (merged with Randgold in 2019), AngloGold Ashanti and Kinross Gold Corporation, the research delivered the following impacts:

1. directed exploration strategies through modelling the formation of ore deposits in Australia, Africa and Russia;

2. defined industry best practice through global professional training in Cardiff’s Cor! tool;

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4.1 Directing exploration strategies through modelling the formation of ore deposits

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Cardiff University also collaborated with Barrick to investigate the genesis of gold deposits at Loulo Mine Complex in the Kédougou-Kéniéba Inlier (KKI) in Mali, Africa. Cardiff’s isotopic analysis of gold formation within the complex was described by Barrick as vital evidence that “ changed quite fundamentally our regional targeting model for the eastern Kédougou-Kéniéba Inlier” [5.2]. These insights enhanced the exploration strategy within the KKI, saving considerable resources.

As stated by Joel Holliday, Senior Vice President Global Exploration at Barrick: “ We now know why there are no deposits in the north of the KKI between Kofi/Loulo and Sadiola, whereas before there was still a concern that we should be exploring in this area” [5.2]. The scale of the change in strategy is evidenced by the fact that Barrick’s total exploration budget of US$21 million (£15.9M) was influenced by the research: “ Our revised regional model… has allowed us to direct this budget away from high-risk ground that we now consider less prospective and focus on areas which meet the criteria outlined above” [5.2].

In 2019, Blenkinsop was asked by Kinross to advise on their Kupol and Dvoinoye properties in north-eastern Russia, using the research described in Section 2. Evan Lapointe, Regional Director for Exploration at Kinross, said: “ Professor Blenkinsop’s 2019 work has yielded important new insights into the structural character of the Kupol and Dvoinoye districts and has generated a number of targets and areas of interest for consideration in future field evaluations and potential subsequent drilling programs” [5.3].

4.2 Defining industry practice by teaching and applying the Cor! tool

The new Cor! tool for structural analysis of drill core samples produced widespread changes in exploration practice, including adoption of the tool within mining companies across the world. A Cor! workshop at a meeting on mineral deposits around the Pacific Rim (PACRIM 2015) motivated changes in practice across multiple high-profile commercial and government mining companies. Specifically citing output [3.6], a representative of multinational resource company ENRC Africa Holdings Ltd stated: " There is an on-going effort within our group to review all the structural logging procedure, methods and measurements we currently have integrating the lessons I got from this workshop” [5.4]. Another attendee commented: “ We’d take a paper like [Cardiff’s] and show it to ~20 odd students / junior geologists to demonstrate to them the sort of thing that can be done structurally with core” [5.4].

In July 2015, training on Cor! and related structural and economic geology was delivered by Blenkinsop at Mount Isa Mines, Australia, and for exploration geologists from Australia, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines. A Senior Geologist from Mount Isa Mines observed that " using Cor! was seen as critical, as previously these measurements have been difficult to perform with existing skill sets. This has had immediate impact on the data collected from drill core" [5.5]. Other attendees highlighted practical benefits of the training: “ the course taught me a lot on the techniques for quick and effective mapping”, with another emphasising lessons learnt from guidance in the field: “ which were much more valuable in the areas of mineral identification, and detailed geological mapping in identifying contacts, lithology, structures, alteration, and mineralization” [5.6].

The principles behind Cor! have been further delivered globally through an online course, Structural Geology for Exploration and Mining (SGEM), produced and run by Blenkinsop based on Cardiff research [3.6]. Beginning in March 2020, 334 geologists from 91 organisations across 34 countries have registered, with 163 completions so far. This intense interest continues at present. Impact is documented by participants and senior managers:

• Andrew du Toit, participant and Managing Director of Canister Resources, Zimbabwe, said: “ From a management perspective, the deeper understanding of structural geology and structural core logging achieved through the SGEM course has been important in order to direct the drilling program and select the appropriate additional downstream activities…Structural interpretation, based on the principles of SGEM, is vital for generating correct and effective resource models for Canister Resources…The financial implications of incorrect resource models run into tens of millions of dollars” [5.7].

• Mike Erickson, Senior Vice President of AngloGold Ashanti, the world’s third largest gold producer, said: “ There is a unique opportunity to develop an on-line training program in structural geology for the exploration and mining industry that will fill the current gap. We strongly support [Cardiff’s] initiative” [5.8].

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4.4 Summary

Cardiff University research into ore formation and drill core analysis enabled collaboration with leading gold and copper mining companies, with improved models of ore formation facilitating redirection of annual exploration budgets worth over £17.5M (£15.9M in West Africa and £1.6M in Australia). Cardiff-led training updated professional practice in exploration across four continents, enabling field professionals to maximise opportunities for locating ore deposits via use of the Cor! tool. [Text redacted].

The United Nations recognised the importance of acceptable T&O in their 2010 definition of water as a human right, and UK legislation since 1991 mandates that water companies ensure acceptable T&O standards. Cardiff research identified a causal pathway to T&O problems which facilitated Perkins’ work with water companies delivering the following impact:

1. redefined Welsh Water’s strategy for reservoir water treatment;

2. improved industry best practice and policy, honing strategies and economic savings for UK water companies;

3. redeveloped reservoir management techniques for water companies in the US and Brazil.

4.1 Redefining Welsh Water’s strategy for reservoir water treatment

Through collaboration with Welsh Water, Cardiff’s research identified the relationship between nutrient ratios and cyanobacteria-producing T&O metabolites in drinking water reservoirs. Joanne Burford, Catchment Manager at Welsh Water, said: “ Perkins has brought new knowledge and skills that have led to the successful identification of a key driver for the production of these compounds… the first time Welsh Water or any water company in the UK was aware of this trigger for T&O compound production” [5.1].

Welsh Water stated: “ The critical research provided by Perkins have been applied to improve Welsh Water’s water quality monitoring programmes” [5.1]. These programmes measure ammonium and phosphate to manage the risk of cyanobacteria T&O metabolite production across all 66 reservoirs, servicing the Welsh Nation of three million people with daily drinking water. Perkins’ central mechanisms of nutrient control of T&O risk is now the basis for Welsh Water’s projects to investigate site-specific dynamics and identify management measures to address T&O, and has “driven changes to Welsh Water’s policies to now treat reservoirs holistically” [5.1].

Cardiff’s research also “ greatly influenced the future strategy of Welsh Water” [5.1] by moving beyond reactive and expensive water treatment policies, such as activated granular or powdered carbon filtration. Welsh Water are now actively working towards catchment area monitoring solutions to improve water quality [5.1]. As a result, both Welsh Water’s five-year plan, Asset Management Programme (AMP7), for submission to the Water Services Regulation Authority (OfWat), and the company’s 30-year strategic plan, ‘Journey to 2050’, implemented changes informed by Cardiff research. These include a move towards Smart Catchment Management and improved evidence based management that are “more cost-effective and environmentally friendly solution[s]” [5.1].

The Cardiff research also enabled immediate financial savings by avoiding expensive and inappropriate infrastructure projects. Welsh Water previously planned installing ResMix turbines: devices that continuously mix reservoir water to maintain oxygenation. Following Perkins’ research, it became apparent the turbines would not provide a comprehensive solution, and the company halted the purchase of five ResMix units. Welsh Water estimate that Perkins’ work saved “at least £5M in investment costs and considerable resources over time” [5.1].

Following UK Government guidance on COVID-19, Welsh Water’s monitoring of reservoir sites was significantly reduced throughout 2020. During this period, Cardiff devised and instigated a new predictive model that provided site-by-site risk assessments of T&O metabolite production for Welsh Water reservoirs: “ This new approach to predictive risk monitoring set up by Perkins has worked extremely well and is to be continued post lockdown” [5.2].

4.2 Strategic changes and economic savings for UK Water Companies

In 2018 Perkins and Welsh Water jointly led creation of the first UK-wide working group (UK Water Industry Taste and Odour Working Group) to share T&O best practice with other water companies [5.1]. After demonstrating the findings from Plas Uchaf and Dolwen Reservoirs, the group instigated a new policy of information sharing between the water companies [5.1]. This was led by Perkins and involved collecting and analysing data from numerous water companies. From the datasets provided, 11 were suitable for analysis, including those of United Utilities, Severn Trent, and Northern Ireland Water. The analysis revealed the same T&O risks as seen in Welsh Water affected reservoirs across the UK [5.1]; Perkins used this information to provide the companies with individual water management plans [5.1]. Since the group's formation, the research led to benefits for water companies across the UK, including:

a) Jersey Water (serving 170,000 daily customers, 350,000 during summer tourism influx)

Perkins advised on intervention management, specifically against ultrasound as a preventative T&O mechanism. Jersey Water stated: “ Based on this information and the findings of Perkins’ research, we did not pursue this option and hence have made savings of approximately £150K per site” [5.3]. Jersey Water is now working towards catchment area monitoring solutions for its six reservoirs, saving the company £900,000.

b) Bristol Water (serving 1.2M daily customers).

Bristol Water received guidance on T&O risk through analysis of Cheddar, Chew Valley and Blagdon reservoirs, where Perkins identified T&O risk management measures and advised against the use of ResMix turbines [5.4]. Bristol Water stated: “ Perkins’ work has been instrumental in developing new strategies to detect T&O risk”, which “ improved the quality of drinking water for people across Bristol and the South West of England” [5.4].

c) Yorkshire Water (serving 5M daily customers).

Yorkshire Water Service stated that partnering with Cardiff University “ identified the opportunity to use molecular analytical techniques at one of our high-risk reservoirs” [5.5]. This enabled new opportunities for “ carefully designed management intervention and ideally preventative strategies” [5.5].

d) Scottish Water (serving 5.4M daily customers).

Perkins’ “ critical research” was shared with Scottish Water through the UK Water Industry T&O Working Group in 2019 [5.6]. Scottish Water detailed how this was “ extremely helpful in providing knowledge that has aided our investment programme to improve reservoir monitoring and understanding T&O events”; it was essential to Scottish Water’s key transition to catchment area monitoring, rather than costly water treatments [5.6].

An additional member of the UK Water Industry T&O Working Group was the Drinking Water Inspectorate (DWI), the England and Wales water regulator that investigates T&O issues and prosecutes water companies, with fines as high as £500,000 in 2019 [5.7]. The Inspector at the DWI, praised the identification of nutrient ratio triggers as “ a significant new development” for the water industry, with DWI incorporating the results of Perkins’ analysis of data into its water companies’ assessment procedures [5.7].

Further building on UK Water Industry T&O Working Group, in 2019 Perkins and the GW4 Water Security Alliance (a research partnership between Bath, Bristol, Cardiff, and Exeter Universities) established the new Reservoirs Management Special Interest Water Research Group. The group includes 29 partner organisations, including 19 water companies, such as Thames Water, United Utilities, Wessex Water and Severn Trent; this provides a unique partnership model to further explore and address issues related to T&O in reservoirs.

4.3 Improving reservoir management techniques for water companies in the US and Brazil.

In collaboration with Welsh Water, Cardiff also engaged in knowledge-exchange programmes with The Bureau of Water Supply at New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYC DEP), in response to an emerging T&O risk detected in their catchments [5.8]. Specifically, since 2019, Perkins supported the NYC DEP to demonstrate preventative management for T&O risks in the Catskills catchment area. Lori Emery, Director of Water Innovation and Research at the NYC DEP, stated that Perkins’ work on T&O triggers is “ assisting us in identifying improvements to our water quality monitoring programs and to determine the causes of T&O events” [5.9]. As a result, Emery highlighted “ increased organizational efficiencies and improved resource allocations” which ultimately “ benefit the quality of drinking water for millions of people across New York” [5.9].

Similarly, Perkins was invited to present his research to the Brazilian Water Research Centre (BWRC - University of Campinas) and the Sanasa Water Company. Professor Cassiana Montagner, Research Coordinator of the BWRC, stated that Perkins advised on T&O aspects of the water safety plan for the Capivari river, serving 1.1M people [5.10]. By highlighting the link between metabolites and T&O, Montagner stated that “ we have now begun to incorporate Perkins’ research into our Water Safety Plan to mitigate the risk of T&O issues” [5.10].

4.4 Summary

Cardiff’s research was instrumental in identifying core causes of T&O problems in drinking water, which enabled regional and UK-wide institutional changes and widespread financial savings including:

• defining the future T&O strategy of Welsh Water, resulting in both immediate financial savings of £5M and enabling a proactive risk management strategy;

• changes across the UK water sector instigated by the creation of the first UK-wide T&O Working Group for the water industry, and implementation of Perkin’s approaches UK-wide;

• benefiting water companies in the US and Brazil, further evidencing Cardiff’s international influence and reputation.

The findings of Maier and McDonald resulted in identification of high-value exploration sites and enabled new ore discoveries, generating exploration cost savings of over £23M. Furthermore, Cardiff research helped minimise societal and cultural impacts for landowners and indigenous groups within these prospective areas, removing the need to relocate or disrupt communities in these provinces. Cardiff’s work was applied across the world, benefiting the following mining organisations:

1. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. in South Africa;

2. The Geological Survey of Western Australia;

3. Northern Shield Resources Inc. in Canada.

4.1 Geological modelling in South Africa

Ivanplats (a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Mines) are exploring the northern Bushveld Complex of South Africa, an area estimated to hold 75% of the world’s supply of platinum. In 2014, the company was granted mining rights to a deposit named “Flatreef”, with indicated mineral resources of 41.9 million ounces of PGE and gold ( in situ value currently >£40B), and an additional 52.8 million ounces of PGE and gold in inferred resources.

Since 2012 Ivanhoe worked with Maier and McDonald to develop a clearer geological definition of the Flatreef and wider area. Dr Danie Grobler, Head of Geology and Exploration, Ivanhoe Mines confirmed that Cardiff’s assessment and validation of the stratigraphic interpretation “ enabled Ivanhoe Mines (and our competitors on adjacent properties) to better understand the internal structure of the Flatreef orebody” [5.1].

Cardiff’s geochemical prospectivity vectoring and petrological mapping of the Flatreef area generated significant economic and strategic benefits: “ As a company, Ivanhoe has derived enormous value from the results of these studies and from the ideas and independent scrutiny offered by Dr McDonald and Professor Maier that have helped to test and refine our geological model” [5.1]. Specifically, Cardiff’s independent assessment and validation of the stratigraphic interpretation used by Ivanhoe to plan development of mine locations “ enabled Ivanhoe to better predict the occurrence and economic potential associated with these rocks” [5.1].

Ivanhoe Mines estimated that: “ Considering that total exploration expenses in the last few years has been US$100M, this work translates into at least US$30M [£23.1M] in exploration cost savings” [5.1] and further notes that the research enabled Ivanhoe Mines “ to identify 3 new high priority exploration targets in Southern Africa and globally” [5.1].

Improved exploration increased social welfare for local people “ by reducing the amount of drilling required to identify new ore resources and by making drilling unnecessary on ground judged to be non-prospective” [5.1]. The northern Bushveld Complex is densely populated and Cardiff’s research delineated non-prospective areas within these community neighbourhoods. Ivanplats stated that “ The area of ground affected by these developments is approximately 4km², on which at least 20,000 people are currently living and will therefore not need to be relocated. The potential cost of this relocation would have been approximately US$ 100M [£77.6M]” [5.1].

The research further enhanced professional methods used by Ivanplats across the world: “ Specific guidelines for exploration in the Bushveld and elsewhere that are now applied as best practice by Ivanplats exploration teams” are “used regularly by the Ivanplats geological teams, comprising at least 15 employees” [5.1].

4.2 Prospectivity of culturally sensitive Western Australian sites

The Western Australian government is responsible for natural resources within the largest state in Australia, approximately ten times the area of the UK. The Geological Survey of Western Australia (GSWA) oversees geological exploration for the state and, as stated by Dr Hugh Smithies, Project Manager of Geoscience Mapping, has “ routinely requested Prof. Maier’s help in various aspects of nickel- and copper-mineralised systems throughout central Australia and southern Western Australia” [5.2]. Of specific importance is the evolution of nickel and copper-mineralised systems in the Albany-Fraser Orogen region and West Musgrave Province of Western Australia [5.2].

Cardiff’s work within the Albany-Fraser Orogen area “ identified geochemical and isotopic discriminators of high- and low- prospective ground and these have been incorporated into current exploration models for that region” [5.2]. In addition, the GSWA stated that Cardiff’s research “ provided perhaps the most significant body of data and of interpretations relating to the nickel- and copper-prospectivity of the west Musgrave region in central Australia” [5.2].

Cardiff’s research is currently directing exploration into the Musgrave region and within the Albany-Fraser Orogen where Smithies notes the economic and material potential “ cannot be understated” [5.2].The GSWA has a unique policy of publicly releasing all prospectivity maps to encourage private exploration, which is estimated to deliver a return on investment of AUS$23.7 for each AUS$ spent through granted mineral rights, taxes, and employment [5.3]. Through collaborative research and mapping, Cardiff’s input “ has been a critical component to the success of GSWA programs in these regions” and “significantly advanced the understanding of the geological evolution of these regions and their economic potential” [5.2].

A priority for the GSWA is working alongside indigenous traditional landowners, and the Musgrave and Albany Fraser ore deposit belts are some of the most culturally sensitive regions in Australia, home to a wide range of indigenous groups. The GSWA emphasised how the research “ provided a firm geological base, including detailed mapping and geological interpretations, upon which all land-use activities could be better planned and executed – providing clear benefits in terms of minimising potential disturbance of culturally and environmentally sensitive land” [5.2]. As a result, Cardiff’s research in the west Musgrave region “ *formed part of a unique cooperative agreement between the Western Australian State Government and the indigenous Traditional Owners of that region (represented by the Ngaanyatjarra Council)*” [5.2].

4.3 Discovery of Canadian magmatic ore deposits through non-invasive methods

Northern Shield Resources is a Canadian company that aims to conduct non-invasive exploration, using geochemical tools that reduce risk in early-stage exploration. Since 2006, Northern Shield collaborated with Maier on the implementation of geochemical vectoring. These methods now underpin the company strategy. Ian Bliss, the President/CEO of Northern Shield, notes that Maier “ was largely responsible for developing Northern Shield’s methodology to discriminate prospective from non-prospective mafic-ultramafic intrusions and once prospective targets were defined, utilizing geochemistry as a vectoring tool, both on property and drill-hole scale” [5.4].

Northern Shield’s application of Cardiff’s geochemical prospecting strategies “ led directly to the Huckleberry discovery in 2014” a Nickel-Copper-PGM site being actively explored under a joint venture between Northern Shield and South32 Ltd., with an estimated CDN$3M (£1.75M) spent on exploration [5.4]. Although Northern Shield cannot provide a definitive monetary value on Cardiff’s expertise, Bliss estimated that “ contributions at Huckleberry resulted in cost savings of CDN$300,000 (two drill-holes, [£172,000]) and $400,000 [£230,000] for regional exploration and project generation” [5.4].

Maier’s knowledge and application of non-invasive geochemical prospectivity vectors in remote regions of Québec was equally critical: “ Beyond dollar values our exploration methods, based on Dr Maier have positive social and environmental impact” [5.4].

Northern Shield’s operations in the area are near local indigenous First Nation and Inuit communities. Bliss stated that by using Cardiff’s “prospectivity discrimination and vectoring methods based on rock geochemistry, unnecessary damage to the environment, no matter how light, is avoided by reducing the amount of drilling required” [5.4].

4.4 Summary

Cardiff research resulted in delineation of highly prospective exploration tracts and the discovery of new magmatic ore deposits of PGE, nickel and copper in Africa, Australia and Canada. Equally importantly, the research identified areas of lower ore potential, reducing detrimental societal and cultural impacts for landowners and indigenous groups. In total, exploration cost savings of at least £23M were generated.