Impact case study database

The statistical research by Newcastle University has delivered economic, operational, and educational impact on a large geographical scale.

“There have been three implementations of the research within our systems in 2015, 2017 and 2019.” [E1]. The next application is due in the first quarter of 2021. The bi-annual implementations have “…demonstrated a significant improvement in accuracy of 10% in the North East region and 13% in the North region” [E2], allowing the network to operate more efficiently and prevent costs [E1]. NGN documentation, outlining operating processes, includes details of the statistical methodology embedded within NGN’s forecasting activities [E3, E4]

Impact on capacity bookings

The gas demand forecasts produced by the Newcastle University research team have impacted upon gas bookings. NGN has reduced actual gas capacity bookings by 16%, year-by-year, from 612 GWh/day to 514 GWh/day, to match the statistical forecasts [E1]. “Avoiding paying for gas that is not used has resulted in reduced capacity costs of over £1M.” [E1] *. This reduction has enabled NGN to release capacity back to National Grid which can then be allocated to other customers.

Impact during challenging periods including extreme weather

The research methodology has been robust during challenging periods, such as unseasonable weather, changeable weather and bank holiday weekends which enables NGN to avoid charges of £1m per day [E1].

In 2018, the effects of the “Beast from the East” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43218229 were mitigated as a result of the statistical research. During the commencement of this unseasonable weather, NGN increased their maximum day forecast using the holiday factors. Failure to apply the increase would have resulted in NGN under-forecasting the North East local distribution zone maximum day estimate. The unadjusted forecast was 245 GWh/day, the increased maximum prediction using the holiday factors (Newcastle research) was 258 GWh/day. The actual gas demand on the 1^st March 2018 was 254 GWh/day.  NGN booked their gas capacity in line with the Newcastle research-estimated maximum day demand. If NGN had not increased their estimated peak demand and gas capacity being allocated accordingly, overrun charges would have occurred.

“…we have used more accurate and precise forecasts to…ii) avoid charges during operationally challenging periods such as extreme weather e.g. overrun charges of £1M could occur on one date alone if a repeat of the 2018 Beast from the East occurred under the new pricing structure”. [E1].

Impact on gas network inspection planning

The statistical research has had a direct influence on scheduling cost-effective pipeline inspection and *“… avoiding wasted expenditure.” [E1]. The research has allowed NGN to identify the optimum times of year to plan and launch pipeline inspections and conduct inline assessments. A more accurate understanding of the demand at a nuanced, daily level has allowed this to occur. Without accurate forecasts, inspection activities would be sub-optimally executed resulting in wasted expenditure - confidentiality prevents the presentation of financial cost savings.

Impact on gas storage errors

Through more accurate forecasts, the “… research has mitigate(d) gas storage errors, maintaining system balance.” [E1]. Over-forecasts and under-forecasts lead to problems within the regional storage system which can lead to detrimental impacts on the national UK storage position. This can result in less efficient systems, unavailability of resources, higher costs and reduced flexibility for the UK energy system. Underestimating or overestimating demand can impact upon the quantity of carbon gas entering the system from facilities such as bio-methane plants, and hydrogen blending facilities. The effects of over- and under-forecasting have been reduced by the Newcastle research, though it is difficult to estimate a direct quantitative improvement.

Impact on understanding & education: greater confidence and staff development

The research has had a significant impact on staff understanding and education within NGN.

The research methodology allows NGN to make informed decisions and improve situational awareness. “Management now authorise new demand forecasts with increased confidence, knowing that prior authorisations based on the outputs of the research have been successful.” [E2].

*“The research has educated some NGN staff members in the field of Bayesian statistics and provided an opportunity for continued professional development.” [E2].

Establishing UK wide gas distribution improvements

This research work resulted in the establishment of a UK-wide project in Autumn 2018 between all the UK gas distribution distributors (NGN, SGN, Cadent, Wales & West Utilities) and the School of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics at NU [E5]. The focus of this work was evaluating and improving the analysis of leakage at medium pressure across the UK gas distribution networks to ensure that the methods deployed are both accurate and cost-effective to the industry. The gas industry benefits from these statistical approaches in helping make the UK’s energy infrastructure low-carbon, sustainable and secure [E6].

Health, economic and commercial benefits have occurred at a regional, national, and global level. This case study details examples with corroborated impact from the UK, Europe, South America and within the International Transport Forum (ITF).

Impact in North Yorkshire (NY)

Following NU RAPTOR research in 2016, North Yorkshire Police (NYP) expanded their fleet of safety camera vans to further reduce the number of collisions, deaths, and serious injuries on the region’s roads [E1]. *“…independent research by academics at Newcastle University shows an estimated 20% reduction in casualties owing specifically to the presence of mobile safety camera vans…In 2017 six new, more agile vehicles were introduced by the police…” - *NY Police & Crime Commissioner [E2].

Three-year “before and after” analyses either side of the 2017 £107K fleet expansion, demonstrates the following benefits [E3]:

• a 24% reduction in casualties at 22 specific locations;

• a significant contribution to estimated accident prevention savings of £22.5M p/annum across the whole North Yorkshire region.

The Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner states: “Since 2017, the augmented fleet has enabled greater presence on more high-risk routes to influence speeding and anti-social road use. It has also allowed us to provide visibility and reassurance to many communities which had not previously had a safety camera presence.” [E3].

“The Newcastle research was significant in clarifying the rationale for the expansion of SCVs (Safety Camera Vehicles) and therefore in contributing to a reduction in the annual number of KSI [Killed or Seriously Injured] incidents. This has reduced on average from 514 casualties per annum to 436, bringing an estimated accident prevention saving of £22.5M p/annum and significant societal health and economic benefits.” [E3].

Impact in Northumberland and Tyne & Wear

NU’s RAPTOR software is used by the Northumbria Safer Roads Initiative (NSRI).

*“Since 2018 we have applied RAPTOR to identify traffic collision hotspots in the Northumbria Police Force area (Northumberland and Tyne & Wear) and guide the allocation of enforcement resources… RAPTOR is a key component of traffic strategy and operations and is now an established part of our year-on-year decision-making process”* **– **Senior Transport Planner, NSRI [E4].

All 130 mobile safety camera locations within the region have been assessed by RAPTOR for continuing enforcement. There is an estimated collision event reduction of 38 over a two-year period for the whole of the region since RAPTOR analysis began. Newcastle research has made a significant contribution to estimated collision reduction savings of approximately £4M for the years 2018 and 2019 [E4].

NSRI also use RAPTOR to evaluate the effect of road safety interventions. Pre- and post-analyses of three-year durations either side of the RAPTOR-driven safety camera redeployment demonstrates a significant decrease in casualties of 33% at four sample locations, resulting in estimated accident prevention savings of £235K over a three-year period for these sample sites [E4].

Impact in Lisbon, Portugal

In 2018, the Municipality of Lisbon, Portugal and NU agreed a memorandum of understanding to develop and improve road safety in Lisbon. NU researchers undertook an analysis to assess the effects of road safety cameras on casualty reduction within the city. Subsequently, NU researchers used their statistical methodology embedded in PTV’s VISUM Safety software to predict the safety impacts (“what-if scenarios”) of a new low emission zone scheme in the Baixa-Chiado district of Lisbon. *“The results from the assessment impacted upon the design of the scheme. The Low Emission Zone was presented by the Mayor in January 2020, but unfortunately had to be temporarily suspended due to the (Covid-19) pandemic situation. The Newcastle research methodology has been playing a role in the design of a safer Lisbon…” – *Deputy Mayor, City of Lisbon [E5]. It is expected that benefits from the scheme would now have been evident without the outbreak of Covid-19.

Impact in Bolivia

In 2016, NU researchers delivered a series of road safety workshops about their methods for analysing collision data, the rationale behind their research and a demonstration of the software solutions in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. The work highlighted the benefits of collision prediction and scheme evaluation from the appropriate interrogation of collision data. One of the significant outputs from the event was a Road Safety Charter signed by participants calling for an increased investment in road safety in Bolivia. Based on this Road Safety Charter, which included specific NU research, the Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF) provided the CAF bank a grant of US$200,000 to enhance the development of road safety strategies in four cities in Bolivia: Santa Cruz, Tarija, La Paz and El Alto [E6].

*“An understanding of the Newcastle research, specifically i) the methodology for the accurate analysis of collision and casualty data to identify collision hotspots and ii) the evaluation of road safety schemes such as speed cameras, has enabled the cities to develop a system of self-funding road safety strategies.” – Road Safety Advisor, GRSF/CAF [E6].

Global Commercial Impact

Corroborated International impact is demonstrated through collaboration with PTV Group, a global German company specialising in software solutions for traffic and mobility. Statistics-based algorithms, used within RAPTOR, have been embedded within VISUM Safety software [E7] [E8]. “Algorithms developed by Newcastle University have been integrated within our VISUM safety software from 2017 through to the latest edition VISUM Safety 21 , http://vision-traffic.ptvgroup.com/en-uk/products/ptvvisum-safety/ , which is licensed currently to 140 organizations in 40 different countries, with a total of 3700 licenses so far.” “…Newcastle University research has helped us to achieve estimated license sales of our VISUM Safety Module at an estimated of License value of approximately €1,1M”– Vice-President Business Development & New Mobility, PTV Group [E9].

Global Policy Impact

The International Transport Forum (ITF), within the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, is an intergovernmental organisation with 61 member countries. The ITF acts as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiation of policy issues across all transport modes at a global level. NU’s novel collision prediction research is detailed in the section on ‘proactive network management’ within the ITF policy document, “New Directions for Data Driven Transport Safety”, published in 2019 [E10]. Subsequently, the research is used by global member countries of ITF to influence future transport policies and the effective use of data to drive safety decision making.

Economic, commercial, societal and environmental impacts have occurred within the marine, utilities, automotive, social housing, and service sectors.

Impact within the Marine sector

Royston Diesel Power are specialists in diesel power, sales and repairs, with a significant customer-base within the marine and offshore industry. The research work has led to the following benefits since 2016 [E1]:

• an increase in annual sales turnover of £4M;

• an increase in annual exports of £4M;

• an increase in annual profit of approximately £1M;

• the creation of 5 new jobs within the business;

• an investment of greater than £1M in new software and hardware implementation and support.

Statistical data analytics research was used to develop modules for Royston’s fuel monitoring product Engine i. “The research work enabled us to develop new opportunities via our existing customer base and global shipping databases. The data analytical capability has added significant value to customer data through the creation of high-value operational intelligence for the customer.” [E1]. As a result of the research collaboration with Newcastle University, Royston began a 3- year collaborative R&D programme with Innovate UK with a focus on “whole vessel energy monitoring”. The value of the programme was £1.2m.

Impact within the Utilities sector

Advanced Engineering Solutions (AES) are specialist pipeline and pipeline equipment engineers. The research has generated annual turnover of £275,000 [E2] for AES through the capturing of new service contracts. Modern statistical methodology has become an integral part of AES’s analysis processes.

The well-recognised AES pipeline condition assessment process is used on a global basis.

The statistical analysis method for pipeline defect identification, detection and sizing has been implemented and utilised within our processes, used by water companies across the UK, and is becoming a key component within technological services provided to our collaborative organisations in France (Suez) and Australasia (Asset Integrity Australasia).” [E2].

Impact within the Automotive sector

Rain Data specialise in data and cataloguing services for the automotive sales after-market. The research work achieved the following benefits [E3a, E3b]:

• an increase in annual sales turnover of £60k (estimated to be £180k within 3 years);

• an increase in annual profit of £35k (estimated to be £95k within 3 years);

• the creation of 2 new jobs.

Newcastle University research has improved Rain Data services to their customers through establishing data analytics capacity within the business. The implementation of data analytics tools has increased levels of data automation and accuracy; avoided the outsourcing of data cleansing and analytics activities; enhanced the profiling of stock; enabled better prediction of car trends and likely mechanical failures; reduced customer returns thus increasing client satisfaction; and improved stock level efficiency [E3a].

Impact within the Social Housing sector

Orchard Information Systems provide property management solutions and services to housing organisations and councils throughout the UK. Social housing research impact benefits include [E4a, E4b]:

• the development of Intellectual Property (IP) related to predictive models for rent arrears and void properties. This IP has been embedded into Orchard products and services. The prediction of voids is a sector first;

• the creation of 2 new jobs;

• supporting the development of Income Analytics, Orchard’s flagship product.

Data analytics has become a key component of new solutions and business insight for Orchard clients. The generation of new products has strengthened Orchard’s position in the sector and provided competitive advantage.

Impact within the Service sector

Enzen Global provide consulting, technology, engineering and innovation services to the energy and water industries. Core benefits, as a result of the creation of an improved data analytics capability through the research, are [E5, E6a, E6b]:

• an increase in annual sales turnover of £292,000

• an increase in profit of £70,000

• the creation of 4 new jobs

The subsequent year-on-year increase in sales turnover and profit could be up to 10 times higher, although Enzen have not undertaken a full cost-benefit analysis.

The research has been embedded within Enzen’s Knowledge Centre and enabled the company to expand their range of business products and services. The Newcastle University data analytics research has enabled applications to diverse challenges within the utilities service sectors across the UK [E5]. Work with Northern Gas Networks established improved gas demand estimations by using local rather than regional weather measurements. A collaboration with Scotia Gas Networks identified key relationships between socio-economic factors and residential demand. A project with Wales and West Utilities resolved public reported escapes (PREs) of gas yielding financial optimisation benefits.

“…this work with Newcastle University opened up a new revenue stream for Enzen and a new way of thinking about data and the opportunities that it provides”. [E5].

Creation of a data science company

Jumping Rivers is a Newcastle-based analytics company specialising in data science and machine learning [E1]. The company commenced trading in October 2016 and is co-located on the Newcastle Helix site alongside the multi-million-pound National Innovation Centre for Data. JR work impacts on businesses in fields as diverse as biotechnology, finance, DigiTech, manufacturing, chemicals, utilities, and healthcare.

“Newcastle University’s research has been fundamental in creating our company Jumping Rivers, providing the company’s core infrastructure and enabling a diverse range of services to be offered to our customers”. [E2].

Meeting North East challenges

Compared to other parts of the UK, the North East has traditionally experienced fewer and lower quality job opportunities. JR has directly met several objectives of the North East Strategic Economic Plan [E3] such as “creating more and better jobs” and providing growth and services within the digital sector. JR is a highly skilled team with individuals holding qualifications including four PhDs in statistics and six MScs in statistics/computing science. All staff are situated in the North East delivering projects on a global level. The ten technical members of staff specialise in areas such as simulation tools, optimised workflows, cloud-computing, statistical inference, and parallel and distributed approaches.

Impacts

Since the financial year 2016-17, JR [E2, E4]:

• annual turnover has increased from £49K to £638K in 2019/20

• operating profits have increased from £4K to £184K in 2019/20

• staff numbers have increased to a headcount of 13 (12.4 FTE) as of March 2021

• has delivered projects for over 100 organisations in Europe, North America, and Africa

• has provided pro-bono sponsorship for over 40 global events, for example in the Ivory Coast, Uganda, and South Africa

The techniques created through Newcastle University e-science projects have been developed so that JR now offer a complete service through ongoing support, applied research, training, and consulting. Projects include establishing effective data infrastructures, running robust computational statistical models, generating reproducible data analysis reports, and enabling statistical inference. All these approaches enhance business decision making through the improved use of data.

JR has delivered impact across many areas; two exemplars are provided below covering the biotechnology and utilities sectors:

Fujifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies (FDB) is a global-based organisation specialising in cell culture, microbial fermentation, and gene therapies. Since 2018, JR has collaborated with FDB to optimise their data collation, usage, and analysis process. FDB has multiple research groups situated in a variety of locations across the world, these teams regularly share large complex data sets. Working closely with a FDB team, JR built a cloud-based data pipeline to conduct process and analytical risk assessments. The risk assessments, built around a Failure Modes and Effect Analysis platform, enable FDB and their clients to identify, numerically score and visualise risks to manufacturing on the journey to commercialising therapeutic drugs.

The digital application is used by all FDB sites globally and has increased their proficiency, elevating client facing capabilities. There are numerous benefits to this work including; more effective prioritisation of tasks in late stage development; reduced chances of errors; enhanced communication of risk to clients; and improved demonstration of risk management systems to global regulatory health authorities including the Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency. The work has helped FDB to demonstrate their recognition of the importance of effective risk management.

“Jumping Rivers and Newcastle University have both contributed significantly to our global operations”. [E5].

Northumbrian Water Limited (NWL) serves 1.3 million properties in the North East of England, and 794,000 properties in Essex and Sussex, primarily through water and sewage services. In recent years, reducing leakage and interruptions to supply have been high priority targets for NWL, its customers, and Ofwat (the water industry regulator).

Since 2018, JR have developed and integrated within NWL data-driven solutions to address leakage and supply interruptions problems. Development of the e-science application was on the Microsoft Azure Cloud, which matched the internal cloud of NWL, and allowed constant feedback to the new application. Data was gathered via APIs from a variety of internal and external sources. Reducing the time taken for 35 engineers to access the required data from two hours to 15 minutes has resulted in annual savings, reduced leakage and reduced interruptions.

The insights provided by JR have been valuable for enhancing NWL service delivery, primarily for NWL customers, but also for NWL themselves, as high performance in these areas is linked to considerable financial incentives.

“Jumping Rivers have demonstrated the value and capabilities of new technologies which we now are looking to adopt further within NWL. Their expertise spans a range of analytics, data science and deployment technologies -including the Microsoft Azure Cloud - which they leverage to build impactful and insightful Proof of Concept models and analyses”. [E6].

NU’s research through JR has provided the bedrock of these case studies and many other projects, enabling commercial, economic, and educational impact within diverse contexts.