Impact case study database

Given the importance of reducing SLCPs, both in terms of climate change and the impact of air pollution on human health, SEI York has undertaken significant work to translate its research findings to policy-influencing organisations and policy-makers in national governments, and is described by the former Chief Scientist of UNEP as “ one of the most effective and important institutions working in the world on cutting edge science-policy issues” (5.1).

Prior to this REF period, SEI York worked closely with UNEP to persuade governments to act on its research (3.1), leading to the formation in 2012 of the international Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) which has a mission to work with state and non-state partners to reduce SLCPs. SEI was the first non-state partner to join CCAC and since August 2013 the SEI York team has continued to play a major role in the development of key initiatives, especially in relation to Supporting National Action and Planning (SNAP) and regional assessments. The Head of the CCAC Secretariat states that “ The SEI team at the University of York…is instrumental in the work that our initiative supporting the development of National Plans on short-lived climate pollutants is implementing in about 20 countries” (5.2). As of November 2020 CCAC has 70 state partners and 76 non-state partners, and is described as “ one of the premier institutions worldwide catalysing actions that combat both air pollution and climate change simultaneously” (5.1). Kuylenstierna and Emberson sit on the CCAC Scientific Advisory Panel, ensuring that SEI York research informs the strategic direction of the coalition.

As part of the SNAP initiative, SEI York researchers worked directly with governments, training them to use the LEAP-IBC tool to quantify emissions and model scenarios for reduced air pollution (5.2) and providing expert scientific and technical input into policy drafts to ensure the final plans are robust and achievable. The application of SEI York research has enhanced the capacity of national governments and institutions to assess air quality and climate impacts, generate mitigation scenarios and produce National Action Plans on SLCP mitigation using LEAP-IBC, with the following a quote from the Federal Ministry of Environment of Nigeria in their national SLCP planning document:

“The LEAP-IBC tool developed by SEI York researchers, and the training provided in August 2018 by the SEI York team to staff at the Federal Ministry of Environment in Nigeria and other national institutions has enabled us for the first time to:

(i) quantify emissions of air pollutants and SLCPs;

(ii) identify, evaluate and prioritize mitigation actions to improve air quality and mitigate climate change, and quantify the human health benefits of the mitigation measures by developing a Nigerian model for SLCPs in LEAP-IBC with support and training from SEI.” (5.3a, similarly confirmed for other countries in 5.3b, c, d and e).

To date seven countries have officially endorsed National Action Plans for SLCP reduction (5.2): Nigeria (2018) (5.4a), Côte d’Ivoire (2020) (5.4b), Bangladesh (2020) (5.4c), the Maldives (2019) (5.4d), Mexico (2020) (5.4e), Togo (2019) (5.4f) and Colombia (2020) (5.4g). The SEI York team have successfully worked with a further nine countries: Ghana (2018) (5.5a), Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Mongolia (5.5b), Morocco, Peru and The Philippines, to advance their commitments to SLCP reduction and move towards the creation of endorsed National Action Plans. In addition, the national planning supported by our researchers has been referenced explicitly in the revised NDC submissions by Bangladesh and the Dominican Republic to the UNFCCC in December 2020 (5.5c and 5.5d).

The multidimensional assessments enabled by the LEAP-IBC tool, including energy planning, GHG mitigation scenarios and air quality assessment, enable governments to understand how policies affecting air quality cut across climate, and vice versa, promoting inter-departmental dialogue and joined-up policy planning:

“SEI researchers, as part of the Climate and Clean Coalition (CCAC), Supporting National Action Planning (SNAP) initiative have provided technical support through training activities using their Low Emissions Analysis Platform – Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assist staff at the Ghana EPA and other national institutions in: quantifying emissions of SLCPs, air pollutants and GHGs; identifying, evaluating and prioritising mitigation actions to improve air quality and mitigate climate change and quantifying the human health benefits of the mitigation measures by developing a Ghana model for SLCPs in LEAP-IBC with support and training from SEI York; establishing a planning process to engage stakeholders and obtain a high-level political endorsement for the National Action Plan; training in the impacts of air pollution on human health. The discussion of the impacts has helped to increase the interest of stakeholders in Ghana to address air pollution; the integration of strategy development between air pollution and climate change, including strengthening linkages between different ministries, departments and agencies; reviewed and provided technical comments during the finalisation of Ghana’s 2nd Biennial Update Report, submitted to the UNFCCC.” (5.3b see also similar confirmation from other countries in 5.3a-e).

Impact on Policy Debate

In addition to the concrete impacts on government policy and practice listed above, SEI York research has provided robust evidence to back calls for strengthening both global and regional climate responses, with (3.1) alone being cited in 94 policy documents from around the world (5.6). Some of the most influential organisations who use SEI York research to inform policy positions include: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change who cite (3.6) in support of their recommendation that countries should focus on pathways and policies which both improve air quality and reduce impacts of climate change (5.7 at p.268), and; The World Health Organization (WHO) which cites (3.1) in six publications from November 2014 – March 2018 (5.6), including the WHO indoor air quality guidelines on household fuel consumption.

In summary, our research has outlined a global pathway to achieve the 1.5 degrees celsius target whilst also maximising the sustainable development benefits through reducing air pollution exposure and its impact on human health. This pathway has been emphasised in global reports of the IPCC as being the only way by which we can achieve the temperature targets outlined in the Paris agreement. This research has been operationalised through the development of national-scale policy plans and strategies by developing country-specific roadmaps that contribute to reducing the country's contribution to climate change whilst maximising the benefits to the health of their citizens through reducing the exposure to health-damaging air pollution. Specifically, this research has resulted in the development of eight climate change commitments submitted to the UNFCCC that incorporate this pathway of simultaneous climate and air pollution reductions as well as eight additional national action plans that have been endorsed at ministerial or cabinet levels to identify how these climate and air pollution targets can be achieved.

York’s longstanding, well-regarded research in the field of marine protection has had a number of impacts ranging from the local to international scale, influencing policy via provision of evidence bases and demonstrating the positive environmental outcomes that marine protected areas can provide. York’s staff have been internationally recognised for this work, with Roberts being an advisor to the Pew Bertarelli Global Ocean Legacy Program, Stewart being a member of the ICES Scallop Working Group, and O’Leary presenting at the United Nations.

Working with the community to protect and recover Isle of Arran marine ecosystems

In the words of Howard Wood OBE, co-founder of COAST, ‘ *The scientific advice, research and wider collaboration with Professor Callum Roberts, Dr Julie Hawkins and yourself [Dr Bryce Stewart] has been the most significant aspect of the success of COAST, the NTZ and the MPA, along with our community support.*’ [5.1] York researchers have collaborated with COAST, a community-led organisation on the Isle of Arran, since 2004 and provided key scientific advice behind COAST’s campaigns. As a result of the success of the Lamlash Bay NTZ (established 2008), where York research had demonstrated the recovery of both biodiversity and commercial species [3.2], COAST proposed the formation of the South Arran MPA, which was successful [3.5]. Perhaps the most high-profile of the 30 MPAs designated in Scotland in 2014, it covers over 250km². Howard Wood stated: ‘ Without the University of York’s partnering with COAST from 2010 in research monitoring of the NTZ… we would have lacked the science to back up our case. However, just as importantly the stream of media coverage that was generated helped to keep up the momentum, informing and generating local and national public support’ [5.1]. Highlights of this media coverage include the New York Times (6,000,000 digital/print subscribers, NYT April 2020) and BBC’s Springwatch 2018 (1,600,000 viewers, BARB) [5.2a-c]. Greenpeace UK chose Lamlash Bay NTZ as one of only three MPAs in the world to demonstrate ‘ Why ocean sanctuaries are so important’, as part of their 2018 campaign for the world’s largest ocean sanctuary in the Weddell Sea (Antarctica), now signed by over 2,300,000 people [5.3].

Along with the environmental benefits of the NTZ and MPA demonstrated by York [3.5], a 2019 review by the Scottish government found that stakeholders and businesses on Arran believe the NTZ and MPA has had a positive impact [5.4]. The protected areas are thought to provide an additional tourist attraction for the area, and local community groups have galvanised around the MPA, organising events and activities to raise awareness and educate people about the marine environment. For example, COAST has opened a new marine education centre, which had over 11,000 visitors in 2018 [5.4].

Our close partnership with COAST has also helped them gain international recognition and influence. Highlights include their chairman, Howard Wood, being awarded an OBE and the Goldman Prize (the world’s largest grassroots environmental prize) in 2015 [3.5]. A further significant development since 2014, inspired by the success of COAST, is the Coastal Communities Network, a collection of 17 community groups right around the coast of Scotland, who have already campaigned successfully for improved management of their local coastal areas, including Scotland’s first Demonstration and Research MPA in Fair Isle [3.5]. Stewart provides scientific advice to this network.

Using our findings to influence Scottish & UK government policy on marine protected areas

Even more significantly, York’s work has been vital in ensuring that Scottish MPAs receive adequate protection, so that they are not just ‘paper parks’, which do not prevent damaging fishing activities taking place within them. A highly contentious issue during Scottish government consultations on MPA management was whether to allow mobile towed bottom fishing gears (trawls and scallop dredges), or only low impact fisheries (creeling and diving). York research was frequently cited in the responses to these consultations, and Kenneth Gibson MSP and Claudia Beamish MSP mentioned COAST’s work during debates [5.5a-b]. There was significant opposition from some mobile gear fishers against the protection measures because they would be unable to fish within the MPA. Despite this, the Scottish government announced significant protection of the MPAs, which came into force in 2016 [3.5]. York’s work in Lamlash Bay and wider research on the effects of scallop dredging was pivotal to this decision; a last-minute challenge from the mobile gear fishing industry in January 2016 was rejected by Rural Affairs and Climate Change Committee, with York research used by the Scottish fisheries minister in his speeches during this debate [5.5c]

The 2010 research highlighting the degradation of the Firth of Clyde marine ecosystem by Thurstan and Roberts [3.1] led to a series of actions from the Scottish Government, including the Clyde 2020 Summit in April 2013, which brought together >100 stakeholders with interests in the Clyde. The Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and the Environment, Richard Lochhead MSP, highlighted the ‘trailblazing’ work of COAST and the Lamlash Bay NTZ [5.1]. Following this event, the Clyde Marine Planning Partnership (CMPP) was established in 2016 to deliver the Clyde Regional Plan (CRP), one of only two regional marine plans being developed in Scotland to date. These statutory plans will provide more local ownership and decision making, thereby improving marine resource use and ecosystem health. Based on his research in the area, Stewart was elected to the key scientific advisory panel ( Clyde 2020 Research Advisory Group, RAG) in 2015. Output and advice from the RAG is helping to shape the CRP and is having a significant impact on the development of relevant policies. As one of the first plans of its kind in Scotland, it will serve as a benchmark for future plans in other regions.

In December 2020, a motion was brought to the Scottish Parliament by Kenneth Gibson MSP calling for more NTZs in Scottish waters. In the ensuing debate the motion received cross-party support, with the Lamlash NTZ and the work by the University of York and COAST mentioned numerous times, e.g. ‘ The establishment of the Lamlash Bay no-take zone in 2008 was a ground-breaking decision…I recognise COAST’s continued efforts to work with academic partners, most notably the University of York….…produced a substantial evidence base.’ (Minister for Energy, Connectivity and the Islands, Paul Wheelhouse, MSP). Kenneth Gibson reported on a 2020 survey (supervised by Stewart) which revealed that ‘ Arran residents and businesses consider research undertaken in Lamlash Bay to be “very important” economically...unsurprising given that marine reserves enhance local fisheries and create jobs and new incomes through eco-tourism’. Joan McAlpine MSP added ‘ With the success of the no-take zone in south Arran, we see a way ahead’ [5.5d].

In June 2019, then UK Secretary of State, Michael Gove, announced the Benyon Review to examine whether and how the strongest protections for areas of sea, known as Highly Protected Marine Areas (HPMAs; equivalent to NTZs), could be introduced in England. Roberts was appointed to the review advisory panel due to his expertise in the area. As Lamlash Bay is still one of only 4 NTZs in the UK, and by far the best studied, it was a key focus of this review. The review team interviewed Stewart and sent a delegation to visit COAST in Lamlash in August 2019. Stewart also provided written evidence to the review in October 2019. The review published its final report in June 2020, citing Stewart et al (2020) [3.5] and recommended the designation of at least 5 new HPMAs, stating ‘The Lamlash Bay case study demonstrated how community support, strong science and political will can be a deciding factor in a successful ‘protection designation’ [5.6].

Utilising our expertise in marine protected areas to stimulate international policy change

In 2016, Pew Charitable Trusts prepared a motion for the IUCN World Conservation Congress as a result of our research [3.6], which demonstrated that the current 10% target of ocean protection was insufficient. This event was attended by 1300+ government, civil society and indigenous peoples and member organisations and proposed raising the ocean protection target to ‘at least 30% of each marine habitat in a network of highly protected MPAs and other effective area-based conservation measures’. The ultimate aim was to create a ‘fully sustainable ocean, at least 30% of which has no extractive activities, subject to the rights of indigenous peoples and local communities.’ The motion cited [3.6], stating: ‘MINDFUL that scientific evidence supports full protection of at least 30% of the ocean as reviewed to reverse existing adverse impacts, increase resilience to climate change, and sustain long-term ocean health’ [5.7]. The motion was passed by an overwhelming majority of national delegations, with 89% in favour.

The study was also instrumental in supporting key points in a scientific consensus statement produced by nations who are party to the Ocean Sanctuary Alliance, a partnership of UN Member States and leaders. The consensus statement was developed in 2016 with Roberts, a member of the scientific steering committee. The statement notes that the science justifies 30% coverage of MPAs, citing [3.6], and states therefore, that ‘10% [MPA coverage] should therefore be viewed as an important waypoint rather than the endpoint for ocean protection’ [5.8a].

The 30% by 2030 goal has generated extensive attention and media coverage. After discussing the science behind the target with Roberts, Lewis Pugh, endurance swimmer and UN Patron of the Oceans, promoted the message as he swam the length of the English Channel in 2018 [5.8b]. Shortly after, the then Environment Secretary, Michael Gove, announced that the UK would support and pursue the goal, stating, ‘ *Protection of our oceans is a global challenge which requires global action. The UK has already safeguarded vast swathes of precious marine habitats, but we must go further.*’ [5.8c] Pugh stated it was ‘ a landmark decision’ and, ‘ It took my breath away. If this is supported by other nations and followed through, it will be the most important moment for ocean conservation in history.’ [5.8b]. Thirty countries have since joined the Global Ocean Alliance led by the UK [5.8d], which is aiming to include the first international legally binding environmental instrument for the protection of biological diversity in the world’s seas and oceans (which includes areas beyond national jurisdiction) in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). As of July 2020, the target had been included in the draft framework for post-2020 [5.9a].

A large coalition of conservation organisations are now actively campaigning for the new target. Greenpeace commissioned York to lead on their ‘ 30X30 A Blueprint for Ocean Protection’ report, which the Head of Oceans at Greenpeace UK states, ‘ has been vital for both supporting our own campaigns, and international collaborations, such as the UK led Global Ocean Alliance’ [5.3]. Conservation International, Campaign for Nature, National Geographic Society, Oceans 5, The Pew Charitable Trusts, and the Wildlife Conservation Society have submitted an intervention urging the CBD to commit to a target of protecting and conserving at least 30 percent of the ocean by 2030 [5.9b].

4.1. Conservation management

York research has informed the in situ management of threatened ecosystems and species.

Our research led directly to the establishment of a Tanzanian not-for-profit company (2016), UK charity (2019) and Tanzanian Non-governmental Organisation (NGO, 2019), all under the name of Reforest Africa [5.1], run by Dr Marshall and guided by UK Trustees and a Tanzanian Board of Directors. Creating Reforest Africa followed years of gathering evidence on the negative impact of inadequate forest conservation on habitat fragmentation and animals [3.1] and on people [3.3], and poor knowledge of forest restoration techniques [2.1]. Thus, Reforest Africa’s mission is “To develop and implement techniques for ecological restoration, conservation and monitoring of African forests for wildlife and people”.

Through Reforest Africa, Dr Marshall led a successful 2019 campaign and fundraising drive, partnering with the Government of Tanzania, Rainforest Trust, World Land Trust, Reforest Africa and another local NGO, to gazette the new, globally unique, Magombera Nature Reserve [5.2]. This stemmed directly from Dr Marshall’s work identifying Magombera as a very important conservation priority for habitat connectivity and species conservation, and placed in the context of regional forest connectivity in [3.1]. In a consultancy report for WWF, Dr Marshall’s data showed extreme levels of illegal tree-cutting in Magombera that would have cleared all regenerating trees from the forest by 2018 if left to continue [5.3a]. This forest has a plant community found nowhere else, with many globally threatened species including a flagship species, the Magombera chameleon, discovered by Dr Marshall in the jaws of a snake. As Director of Reforest Africa, Dr Marshall now directs the management of this protected area through his team of 13 staff in Tanzania. The outline management plan for the reserve developed by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism specifically cites our research and states that it will be used in the management of the reserve [5.2], including forest restoration techniques [2.1] and direct revenue generation for local villages [3.3]. Creation of the new Nature Reserve received widespread media attention, e.g. Steve Lemacq’s BBC Radio 6 Music show dedicated to trees and forests, and numerous press articles. A Chief Scientist at UNEP-WCMC (UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre) stated: “ The creation of this new Reserve demonstrates just how powerful bottom-up, inclusive conservation can be. By working with local communities, charities, academics and private organisations, we were all able to establish a Reserve that protects people’s livelihoods as well as providing a home to a range of endangered species.” [5.3c]

Preceding Reforest Africa, and inspired by the same research [3.1, 3.3, 2.1, 2.2], Dr Marshall’s forest protection and community engagement work in Magombera, since 2013 (Udzungwa Forest Project), has stimulated improvements in habitat quality, species conservation, community knowledge and support including (a) increasing tree density (c. 100 stems/ha in 2007 to c. 450 by 2018-20) and size (mean DBH increase from c. 32 cm in 2013 to c. 38 cm in 2016), (b) reduced illegal firewood collection (from c. 5 down to 0 observations per km between 2013 and 2016), (c) 10-100% improvement in villager knowledge regarding different aspects of forest conservation, from 2015 to 2017, (d) formal community agreement for forest conservation with economic benefits for the communities, and (e) downgrading of a monkey species on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of threatened species [5.3a,b,d,e]. Dr Marshall’s associated species discoveries and field surveys have led to at least five complete and/or ongoing species reclassifications on the IUCN Red List (including three reliant on Magombera Nature Reserve [5.3e]). Successive agreements on forest conservation have led to four nearby villages receiving in excess of TSh 27 million (GBP9,000) in combined revenue from tourism and partnership with Reforest Africa, between 2013 and 2020, and in excess of GBP250,000 through in-kind support. These funds have provided employment, school, tree seedlings, education and training, and the support has given the community a voice in forest management decisions [5.3d]. In 2020, the Reforest Africa team trained more than 2,200 people in the construction of fuel-efficient stoves, resulting in more than 1,300 new households using these in their homes. This has reduced demand for firewood from the forest and was also a direct result of York work [5.3d].

The SMART tool [2.1; 3.2] led to more effective protected area management, through implementation of new methods which assist in planning ‘predictive patrolling’ for rangers, and these have been rolled out at 10 preliminary sites across countries such as Zimbabwe, South Africa and Zambia. The programme manager of SMART, which is in use at 900 sites across 70 countries, stated, “ Dr Beale’s work using data collected by rangers using SMART...has highlighted the importance of effective analysis of ranger-based data to further improve the efficiency of ranger patrols, a key conservation activity in each site where SMART is implemented.” [5.4a] Dr Beale’s work on law enforcement at Queen Elizabeth National Park, Uganda, resulted in rangers detecting 3-5 times more illegal activities when following optimisation regimes, with no additional financial cost. Uganda Wildlife Authority have adapted ranger patrol routes and are continuing to use York’s methods to improve ranger effectiveness across wildlife areas. The Key Biodiversity Areas programme stated, “ Without effective ranger patrols it is likely that we would see rampant poaching for the bushmeat and commercial trade…the ability to significantly increase detection of illegal activities without increased costs is a major advance” [5.4b].

4.2. Conservation drivers

York research into human, infrastructure and environmental considerations for successful conservation has led to some significant progress in managing these drivers. Forest ecology and human livelihood research [2.1, 2.2, 3.1] and the establishment of Reforest Africa, led directly to a Forest Landscape Restoration Plan for a 40,000km² region of major importance for biodiversity conservation, the greater Udzungwa-Kilombero Ecosystem [5.5a]. Crucially, this plan stimulated a workshop attended by tens of expert delegates, and village representatives from across the region, who universally agreed to a Declaration on Forest Landscape Restoration, with quantifiable commitments by 2030 [5.5a, p18; 5.5b]. To act as a hub for implementation of this plan, in 2019-20 Dr Marshall fundraised ~GBP20,000 to found a new botanic garden, on the edge of the Udzungwa Mountains National Park in Tanzania, that will act as the first seed reservoir, plus a training and method-testing site, for implementation of the Declaration. Thirteen acres of land has been purchased for the garden and letters of support written by Missouri and Edinburgh Botanic Gardens, Rainforest Trust, Tanzania Forest Service Agency and the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group [5.6a-c].

Data from the Valuing the Arc Project [2.2] is used by the National Carbon Monitoring Centre in Tanzania and contributes to Tanzania's assessment of carbon budgets. The results are used to inform the country on carbon changes, forest management policy, and feed into national commitments and international agreements, e.g. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [5.7a]. The associated Kesho landcover scenario tool [2.2; 3.4] has been employed for land-use planning at different scales in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Kenya during the REF period. For example, the African Wildlife Foundation used Kesho to inform the development of the Kilombero Cluster Development Framework in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania, and Frankfurt Zoological Society used Kesho to enable local communities to input their pastoral knowledge into future rangeland management in Loliondo (Tanzania). [5.7b]. This informed planning decisions and led to greater awareness among practitioners and local communities of land use transitions and the interactions of agricultural, infrastructure, conservation and pastoral demands on future land use [5.7b].

Regarding climatic drivers of forest conservation [2.2; 3.5], our AFRICLIM tool has been accessed by more than 50,000 people, averaging more than 500 people daily in 2018-19 [5.8a]. AFRICLIM has been cited by non-academic organisations including Biodiversity International, Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund, International Relief and Development, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, IUCN, and World Agroforestry Centre [5.8b].

Through membership of the IUCN Species Survival Commission's (SSC) Climate Change Specialist Group, AFRICLIM [3.5] and other climate change modelling research [2.2], Dr Platts’ work has been a major influence towards the IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change. Dr Platts co-authored two chapters in the Guidelines and was lead author of a Guidelines case study [5.9a]. The Guidelines have been downloaded more than 12,000 times since 2016, leading to impacts such as improved watershed health for people and amphibians (Columbia), improved assessment of threats to biodiversity from hurricanes (Mexico), and improved protected area management for climate change (South Africa) [5.9b]. The Guidelines are being translated into training modules for IUCN Red List assessments, to help 160+ IUCN SSC specialist groups better account for climate change in their Red List assessments of extinction risk [5.9b].

4.3. Ex situ conservation

In his DEFRA advisory role on the Zoo Expert Committee (ZEC), Dr Marshall and other committee members used York research findings [2.3; 3.6], to propose updates to the UK Secretary of State Standards for Modern Zoo Practice. The Director of Animal and Plant Health and Welfare at DEFRA stated that Dr Marshall “ ...played an important role in ZEC activities, in particular through encouraging zoos to undertake conservation activities and by ensuring that clear requirements on conservation are included in the proposed updates to the Secretary of State's Standards for Modern Zoo Practice.” [5.10]