Impact case study database

A metallogenic belt is typically formed by multiple geological events that have led to the Earth’s crust being endowed in metals that are associated with different formation mechanisms as well as ages. As such, for economic exploration, it is critical to establish the geological age of the metal (e.g., copper, gold, molybdenum) enrichment in the Earth’s crust that a company is targeting. Herein lies the power of the application of the Re-Os molybdenite chronometer based on Durham-led research [e.g., R1 – 6] and why companies such as Rio Tinto and MMG, as part of their exploration program want to establish the chronology of the mineral enrichment targeted in their exploration programmes . Commissioned through focused industry-based (Rio Tinto, MMG, Eldorado, Sun Metals – see below) research projects at Durham, Re-Os molybdenite ages (hereafter referred to as Durham-led Research - DLR) have provided critical data to evaluate exploration models. This allows mineral companies to devise accurate resource estimates and exploration programmes and save exploration expenditure and thereby reduce any industry-related environmental impact. Although due to confidentiality exact figures cannot be given, the total impact claimed here is worth hundreds of millions of US dollars.

In the cases discussed below, the impact has occurred since August 2013 and is on-going, as is the nature of impact with mineral exploration. Companies will not divulge the specific details of their explorations to maintain their competitive market position, but they have provided testimony that falls within the REF period.

*Rio Tinto and MMG Impact cases [E1, 2]

The DLR has provided Rio Tinto and MMG data that has permitted reassessment of mining activities and exploration in the REF period, respectively. The DLR has resulted in plans to increase the life of mine operations at one of the World’s major copper producers for another 20 years. This yielded a revenue of hundreds of millions of US dollars.

Both Rio Tinto and MMG are major explorers for porphyry-related copper reserves (supply ~75 % of the world’s copper) that typically also contain significant reserves of molybdenum and gold. Porphyry deposits are a major geological manifestation of where the Earth’s crust has been repeatedly intruded by small porphyry plutons that also channel metal-rich fluids, resulting in a local enrichment of metals (e.g., copper), with the younger events often overprinting the older events [R2 – 6 and industry-led research at Durham ], or occurred spatially close together (< a few kms) or at deeper crustal levels. Over the last decade, it has been shown that the youngest magmatic-hydrothermal event is typically the major carrier of the economic resource. As such, knowing the age of the sequence of the magmatic-hydrothermal events [R2 - 6] is of paramount importance in determining the likely economic value during preliminary exploration.

DLR Outcome 1 – During the REF period the MMG case highlights how the Re-Os molybdenite ages obtained by DLR have specifically aided in providing the understanding that the economic mineralisation occurred in a very short time interval (0.5 millions of years), and is only specifically related to one intrusion event (the youngest), although the prospect geology includes igneous activity that spans nine million years. This has benefited MMG by permitting the company to focus their exploration accordingly. The company state that, whilst it is difficult to put an absolute financial figure on the impact, direct savings in terms of drilling (USD 100,000 per drill hole – exploration at this scale involves 100+ drill holes) and time (e.g., mapping, assay analysis, geophysics, etc) had enormous impacts. Specifically: ‘ Constraining the timing / geological formation of metal enrichment is fundamental to not only the scientific understanding of how economic concentration of copper and molybdenum (Cu-Mo) form, but also to develop financially effective exploration programme and deposit models. The geological dating of the Mo bearing mineral molybdenite by the Re-Os radioisotope tool is the most accurate and precise methodology to achieve this, with the laboratory at Durham University led by David Selby being world leading in its development and application.’ Principal Exploration Geologist, MMG Las Bambas **[E1] .

DLR Outcome 2 - During the REF period, one case from Rio Tinto, at Escondida, Chile, highlights how DLR has permitted the company to restructure its mine site to access and maximise exploitation of the greatest endowment of copper in the region. In a development costing hundreds of millions of dollars, DLR has permitted the company to expand their exploration to locate the most economic concentration of copper. This will ultimately lead to revenues far exceeding the initial development expenditure for the company. The mine restructuring will result in an increase in the lifespan of the mining at Escondida yielding enhanced employment security for hundreds of Chileans and revenue for Chili. The Principal Geologist, at Rio Tinto states: ‘For Rio Tinto, the recognition of the value Re-Os molybdenite geochronology that is provided by Prof Selby at Durham University has changed the way in which we explore for resources over the last five years’ [E2].

Eldorado Gold Corporation Impact cases [E3]

For Eldorado Gold, DLR has aided in steering the company’s exploration program which runs in to CAD10sMillion.

DLR Outcome 3 - During the REF period, in Brazil, DLR identified an age that is genetically associated with the copper and not gold mineralisation. As Eldorado Gold is a gold-focused company, this allowed the company to re-evaluate their exploration program, which in this case, involved leaving the prospect area that, although economic for copper, was not economic for gold. This was an important decision as halting exploration resulted in savings that would have run into several millions of Canadian dollars (CAD). Chief Geoscientist, Eldorado Gold states : ‘The Re-Os molybdenite date allude to the fact that the molybdenite was genetically associated with the Cu-Mo system and not the gold-bearing IRGS system. This was critical in guiding our exploration in the region because as a gold-focused company the IRGS were the most attractive target and thus allowed the company to pull back on the Cu-Mo exploration. As a result, potentially saving several millions of dollars in exploration costs.’

DLR Outcome 4 - During the REF period, in Turkey, a Tertiary geological age has been established to be the key timing interval for gold mineralisation. The DLR has been critical in confirming or denying the age of gold-related mineralisation, which has as a result guided the company’s exploration programs where approximately CAD20million have been spent on exploration.

DLR Outcome 5 – Similarly during the REF period, in Greece, where the key geological ages are 33 to 23 and 23 to 5 million years ago, with the geological characteristics of each age of mineralisation being similar, the DLR has confirmed the timing of gold mineralization and directly guided the company’s exploration strategy that has a budget of up to CAD10million. The Chief Geoscientist, Eldorado Gold states: ‘We have used Re-Os dating of molybdenite on our prospects to determine which generation the mineralisation is related to, and the results have helped guide our exploration strategy in the region where we typically have an exploration budget of CAD5-10million.’

In summary, during the REF period, the outcome of DLR for several international mining companies working in several countries has provided critical data to strategically refine their exploration programs, and in one case revise the location of a principal mining site. Financially, this has permitted companies to maximise expenditure in terms of explorations that totals hundreds of USD and minimise environmental impact. Moreover, in the case of mine redevelopment, DLR has led to further security in terms of employment and country revenue.

Fractured basement reservoirs are a globally underexploited hydrocarbon resource, with only 126 commercially producing fields spread across 26 countries [R5]. The crystalline nature of the low porosity basement means that almost all the hydrocarbon is held in fracture systems. These plays are poorly understood by industry and are difficult to explore due to problems with geophysical imaging in basement rocks and a paucity of core samples core [E1-6].

Holdsworth & McCaffrey’s research findings and expertise have had impacts for the appraisal and development of the UK’s first ever basement-hosted oil fields along the Rona Ridge, west of Shetland (see below). The investments required and value of the potential hydrocarbon resources run into billions of US dollars and are of major strategic importance to the UK [E1-3, E6]. They include:

1. The giant Clair oilfield is operated by BP for the Clair Joint Venture Group (CJVG; a consortium of BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips [now Chrysaor] and Chevron). The field is the largest hydrocarbon resource in the UK Continental Shelf with an estimated 7 billion barrels of Stock Tank oil initially in place (STOIIP) [E1, E2]. The Phase I area came on stream in 2005, whilst the Clair Ridge (Phase II) began production in 2019. The reservoir target is Devonian sandstones that rest directly on Lewisian-like metamorphic basement. Both rock units host oil and are highly faulted, with fracture description and water flood performance considered to be the two main risks in field development. A dedicated basement well in the Clair Ridge is also due to be drilled in 2021 [E2].

2. In 2009 Hurricane Exploration Ltd drilled and tested the UK’s first exploration well targeted specifically at fractured basement. Two further appraisal wells and two horizontal development wells were then drilled and led to the UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) assigning field status to Lancaster in 2015. The Lancaster field (2.3 billion barrels STOIIP) produced its first oil in June 2019 from two wells at a rate of 20,000 barrels of oil per day. Hurricane has also undertaken further basement exploration making additional discoveries at its Whirlwind, Lincoln and Halifax prospects (estimated 15.8 billion barrels) all of which lie along the Rona Ridge [E3, E6].

3. In 2018, Spark Petroleum acquired the licence to develop the Bader prospect located in the region separating Clair from the Hurricane fields.

The Durham research that has that has impacted on the developments outlined above stems from analysis of the fault and fracture systems in the sub-surface Rona Ridge (using core samples, well data and geophysical images) and from surface analogues of the equivalent fractured basement (Lewisian Complex) and cover sequences (Orcadian Basin) in NW Scotland [E1-3, E7-8].

For the CJVG, the Clair Reservoir Development Manager [E1] stated in 2018 that the Durham research set out in our final report [E7] has “significantly improved the industry understanding of the basement rock hydrocarbon prospectivity and potential” and that it “gave sufficient confidence to the JV to allow advance planning of a dedicated basement well which will be produced through the Clair Phase I facility (cost GBP22 million)”. They also highlighted that this work helped demonstrate the CJVG commitment to developing basement resources and that Durham “helped the basement licence retention negotiation with OGA” during 2018. In 2020, the Clair Area Reservoir Development Manager [E2] explained that, in the planning of the dedicated basement well (costing GBP20-25 million), the views of the Durham team were “instrumental in convincing the Clair JV that a crestal well location is a better option, with a higher flow-rate potential than the previous well location. The revised well location is a shorter well, implying a cost saving in the range of GBP1-5 million.”

For Hurricane, the CEO has written that two reports on fractured basement commissioned from Durham in 2007 **[E8] (**precursors to **[R5-6]**) were “ a big influence on our decision to explore and ultimately develop fields in the southern part of the Rona Ridge west of Shetland” [E3]. He has also stated that since 2013, “ Durham onshore data and expertise on fractured basement rocks has been used by Hurricane in reducing uncertainties by constraining its subsurface models which are utilised for determining drilling locations and quantifying the likely economic returns in terms of hydrocarbon production and resource of the Lancaster field”. Since each development well costs upwards of GBP20 million and the decision to finally sanction the entire development programme is significant in both financial and economic terms [E1-3, E5, E6]. In summing up, the CEO states that research at Durham was: “pivotal in allowing us to develop Lancaster as the first fractured basement reservoir ever established in the UKCS region.”

Since 2013, Holdsworth has additionally led annual field workshops with CJVG geoscientists (42 individuals to date) to view fractured analogues in N Scotland. This has helped the industry subsurface teams to better conceptualise the structural framework in the fractured basement and associated Devonian cover sequences and to design improved alternative fracture models [E1-3, E5]. A similar field workshop was run for Hurricane in 2012 and influenced their conceptual models for the Lancaster and other fields in the period 2014-present [E3].

A similar Case Study was a finalist and runner up in the NERC Impact Awards 2018 competition in the Economic Impact category [E9]. Award money from this success was used to host a stakeholder workshop on “ The Geology of Fractured Basement Reservoirs” held in the Outer Hebrides in September 2019 and attended by representatives from 13 companies and the UK Oil & Gas Authority (OGA). A day of presentations and discussion was followed by 2 days in the field visiting onshore analogues of fractured basement rocks. Impacts derived from that event are presently on hold due to effects of the COVID pandemic.

Horwell’s research, to build an evidence base on the respiratory health hazards of volcanic emissions and effective methods of community protection, has resulted in incorporation of methodological protocols into country-level emergency management plans, co-development of informational products with communities and agencies, and their uptake and use during volcanic crises. This has resulted in raised awareness of effective actions in communities and changes in policy and practice related to mask distribution by agencies.

When a volcano erupts, agencies (usually GOs and NGOs with public health, civil protection, disaster management and humanitarian remits) will often distribute facemasks to reduce individual exposures to volcanic emissions, hence reducing the risk of harm from ash inhalation. Until recently, distributed facemasks have usually been those that have already been stockpiled for public health emergencies (e.g., surgical masks stored for influenza pandemics). Until the HIVE project, there was little-to-no evidence of the effectiveness of these masks in community settings for volcanic crises.

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) which is the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Regional Office for the Americas, has rewritten its guidelines on the health impacts of volcanic eruptions. Within those guidelines, information related to respiratory protection is based on the evidence provided by the HIVE research [E1]. These guidelines replace the current information available across the WHO, globally. The HIVE findings and impact were also summarised in a special supplement of PAHO’s Disasters Newsletter (October 2020), which reaches approximately 27,000 experts worldwide [E1], enabling awareness raising at a local level and, hence, faster implementation of the guidance during volcanic emergencies. A new IVHHN/HIVE standardised epidemiological protocol, for use in eruption crises, was also incorporated as part of PAHO’s Regional Response Team assessment tools. Dr Ciro Ugarte, Director of Health Emergencies at PAHO, has said: “The contribution of the HIVE project has been instrumental in building and sharing scientific evidence on respiratory protection from volcanic ash within the Americas. I would like to specially recognise Durham University for this essential collaboration towards a more resilient health sector in the Americas.” [E1]

In late 2017, the Mt Agung, Bali volcanic crisis triggered a critical shift in the approach to community protection in volcanic emergencies in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs). The fundamental difference between the preparedness for the Agung eruption, and that of previous volcanic crises in LMICs, came from a combination of changes in humanitarian practice, such as the advent of crowdfunding platforms, greater coordination of grassroots response, and a sudden move away from the precautionary principle (any intervention is better than no intervention) towards the principles of effectiveness (only providing proven interventions) and social justice (equality in public health provision). This ethical decision-making was based on the results of the HIVE project [R3-5], which showed that industry-certified (N95) masks were the most effective at protecting against ash inhalation [E2]. This resulted in the donation, stockpiling and distribution of 75,000 N95 masks in Bali by a consortium of NGOs known as Mt Agung Relief (led by Kopernik), a situation which has not previously been observed in a volcanic crisis in a LMIC (see [E1] for case study). Mt Agung Relief also produced a series of public informational products on ash protection based on the findings of the HIVE project [E2-3]. Horwell also shared the findings of the HIVE project through social media and engaged in discussions with communities in Bali through local Facebook groups such as Community Ubud, resulting in evidence-based community-level decision making [E3].

The results of the HIVE research [R3-5] have subsequently been incorporated into new public information products (printable and audio-visual), downloadable from the IVHHN website. They were co-developed with Indonesian NGOs, GOs and community representatives and are now available in English, Spanish, Indonesian, Filipino, Japanese and Turkish. The English and Spanish printable products (booklet, poster and leaflet) are endorsed by PAHO/WHO and carry their logos [E1]. These products provide information on how to protect from inhaling ash (2,443 video views 09/20) and how to fit a facemask (9,946 video views 09/20). Another video documents people’s experiences of protection during the 2010 Merapi (Indonesia eruption), to help people prepare for future eruption crises (9,618 video views 09/20). During the 2018 ash eruptions of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii, a major PPE manufacturer donated over 100,000 N95 particulate respirators, in collaboration with local NGOs and GOs, a decision informed by the HIVE evidence [E4]. Local guidance was also developed by the Hawaii Department of Health (HDOH), based on the IVHHN products [E4]. Additionally, several NGOs in Indonesia have used the information to make their own products, for example, the Yakkum Emergency Unit has produced a series of posters [E5]. The Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) and Direct Relief (a US based humanitarian relief organization) have said that they will be printing and distributing the products in future eruption crises [E6; E7].

In January 2019, the HIVE project team returned to Indonesia to conduct four train-the-trainer workshops, on how to fit a facemask, for more than 70 representatives of local agencies and health centres, with the International Society for Respiratory Protection and the Indonesian Red Cross. Those representatives are now engaged in further training and, so far, at least 800 people have received this training [E6].

In Hawaii, the research finding [R6] that communities were coping with vog (gas) exposure in different ways from the official advice, and that the advice was viewed by some as inappropriate given their lifestyles, triggered a complete rewrite of that advice by the HDOH, US Geological Survey (USGS) and IVHHN (Horwell) [E4]. The research also showed how existing advice offered by different agencies varied on different websites. Through workshops held as part of the research, a new Interagency (GO) Partnership was formed (HDOH, Civil Defense, USGS, US National Park Service, County of Hawaii etc.) and an agreement was made that all future advice on vog protection would be consistent across the different agencies. The new guidelines have been published as a booklet, rack brochure and poster, and are available online on a new, comprehensive ‘web dashboard’ which Horwell co-designed with the interagency partnership. The Vog Dashboard ( https://vog.ivhhn.org/), is hosted by IVHHN so that no particular Hawaii/ US agency appears to lead the Partnership and all vog information and data can be accessed from one portal. The guidelines were written to be more reflective of Hawaiian lifestyles and to incorporate the communities’ strategies for coping, where these were evidence based. The agencies then removed their old advice from their own websites so that there was a single point of information [E8]. In May 2018, an unprecedented volcanic crisis emerged as the Kīlauea eruption changed location and style, resulting in multiple volcanic hazards and impacts within the community. The Vog Dashboard became a key source of official information, receiving approximately 50,000 visits per week during this crisis and was also highly recommended by various international media outlets [E9]. Fenix Grange, HDOH, said: “We are indebted to Dr. Horwell and IVHHN for the extraordinary, accessible technical resources and the expertise provided. Their contributions to the massive, multi-disciplinary response to the volcanic eruption crisis of 2018 (and prior events) were very important to the mission of HDOH to protect the people of Hawaii” [E4].

The ash analysis protocols, adopted by IVHHN, have been incorporated into New Zealand governmental policy to be enacted in any future eruptions [E10]. This coordinated framework for public health response to eruptions involves governmental ministries, the national geological survey (GNS Science), Regional Councils, the Met Service and universities. When an eruption occurs, the framework of responses will be enacted and ash collection and characterisation, in accordance with the IVHHN protocols, is part of that crisis management plan. Therefore, official guidelines and practice have been established which purposefully incorporate Horwell’s protocols. Horwell was invited to New Zealand, in Nov. 2013, to present her research to the governmental ministries and at a forum of regional public health representatives, which kicked off the process of writing and establishing the framework.

In 2017, key organisers of the framework (at GNS Science and Massey University) advised on crisis response for an eruption in Vanuatu. They enacted the IVHHN protocol, as part of that response [E10]. Parts of the IVHHN protocol have also been applied in other volcanic crises by local agencies around the world. “Claire’s work has led to improved capacity for rapid eruption response in both NZ and Vanuatu, including the activities of Civil Defence and Emergency Management Groups throughout the North Island.” Graham Leonard, GNS [E10].

To conclude, Horwell’s research on how to protect communities from exposure to volcanic emissions has influenced policy and practice in numerous health-facing organisations, around the globe, resulting in better preparedness, improved public health advice and protection, and enhanced understanding of the hazards of volcanic ash.