Impact case study database

The University of Liverpool’s earthquake hazard research has influenced public policy in the UK and improved engineering and industrial design across Europe. Impacts include:

1. shaping of UK Government policy on the use of hydraulic fracturing for hydrocarbons at Preston New Road, Lancashire, leading to a moratorium on fracking across England

2. developing improved safety-linked decision-making for gas production in the Netherlands

3. improving engineering seismic-design for the UK’s nuclear industry for increased safety

4. assessing seismic risk to school buildings in Basel, Switzerland, which aided mitigation measures to be targeted for increased public safety

4.1 Shaped UK Government policy on fracking at Preston New Road and across England

Between 2019 and 2020, Liverpool’s research [ 3.6] has been used by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), the UK regulator, and the UK’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) to change public policy and guidance related to induced earthquakes due to hydraulic fracturing (fracking) at Preston New Road, Lancashire. As part of an OGA-led review led by Dr Edwards and reported to BEIS, Liverpool undertook a study into the risk due to seismic activity at Preston New Road, as summarised by the OGA [ 5.1].

Liverpool’s work concluded that an unlikely future scenario of a magnitude 4.5 event (2.9 was largest to date) would lead to widespread building damage that could also be a serious risk to public safety; from cracked plasterwork affecting 10% of buildings, to more serious structural damage of varying degrees affecting 5.4% of buildings, with 5.4% also likely to suffer chimney failure. Minister for Energy and Clean Growth, Claire Perry MP, cited Liverpool’s research within a BEIS topical questions debate with fellow MPs in the House of Commons in January 2019, stating [ 5.2]: “ we have had some great evidence from the University of Liverpool” in response to a question from the MP for Sheffield South East about the impact of fracking in Lancashire.

As a direct result of Liverpool research, fracking was ultimately suspended across England in late 2019 by the UK Government, with the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), Andrea Leadsom MP, stating [ 5.3]: “… I’ve also always been clear that shale gas exploration must be carried out safely. In the UK, we have been led by the best available scientific evidence, and closely regulated by the Oil and Gas Authority, one of the best regulators in the world. After reviewing the OGA’s report [ 5.1] [summarising Dr Edwards team’s research] *into recent seismic activity at Preston New Road, it is clear that we cannot rule out future unacceptable impacts on the local community. For this reason, I have concluded that we should put a moratorium on fracking in England with immediate effect.*”

4.2 Developed improved safety-linked decision-making for gas production in the Netherlands

An ongoing review (2015 and 2020) of induced seismicity in the Groningen Gas Field, the Netherlands, has led to the development of seven sequential hazard and risk models, all utilising Liverpool’s research into local seismic hazard [ 3.3]. These models have been submitted by the operator to the Dutch regulator and used as the basis for decisions on production levels, maximising economic benefits (profit and tax revenue), while ensuring safe continued operation.

To understand and mitigate the effects of earthquakes induced due to gas-field compaction, a probabilistic seismic and risk analysis in the Groningen Gas Field was commissioned by the gas field operator Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BV (NAM) in 2013. The Groningen gas field is the largest natural gas field in Europe and makes a significant contribution toward the Dutch economy. The “ total value of gas sales from 1963 to 2019 is some 417 bln Euro” [ 5.4]. This generates substantial tax revenues: “Since production started in 1963 to 2019 the tax income from the Groningen field for the Dutch state was some 360 bln Euro” [ 5.4]. However, due to increasing induced seismicity, since 2014 the Dutch government decided to impose annual cuts in production output, leading to a planned closure of the gas field in 2022, with projected losses in tax revenue amounting to billions of Euros.

Liverpool’s research into site-specific earthquake ground motion [e.g. 3.1, 3.3, 3.4] has provided the basis for (gas) output dependent risk calculations in Groningen, as detailed by the Earthquake Advisor to NAM: “ Regional, never-mind global models, as typically used in large-scale engineering projects were not fit for purpose” [ 5.4]. It was therefore imperative “ to avoid the use ‘typical’ industry-standard approaches such as the use of global empirical models and instead to develop a site-specific physics- based ground motion model” [ 5.4]. “ Work undertaken by the NAM Ground motion characterisation team, comprising internationally leading experts, including Dr Edwards (University of Liverpool), has led to the development of a state-of-the art model for earthquake ground motion” [ 5.4]. The work has enabled the operator to define production levels that reduce the incidence of earthquakes and maintain risk exposure at a level acceptable to the regulator.

Liverpool’s work has been extensively used for operational planning (by the operator), assessment of safe production levels (by the regulator, SodM, and Ministry of Economic Affairs [ 5.5]), assessment of the safety of buildings for chemical production [ 5.6], engineering design of the commercial ‘Groninger Forum’, risk assessment of levees/dams and an update of building design criteria. The wider impact of this work is highlighted by the Earthquake lead of NAM, who noted that “ due to the importance for the Dutch economy the studies are followed closely by the media in The Netherlands and are discussed regularly in the Dutch Parliament” [ 5.4].

4.3 Improved engineering seismic-design for UK’s nuclear industry for increased safety

Liverpool’s research has provided regulatory compliance for existing and new-build nuclear sites across Europe and has been successfully used in the development of nuclear power station design [ 3.1, 3.2]. The Horizon Nuclear Power project (2008 - 2019), which developed the design earthquake criteria for the £15 bn new-build nuclear power station at the Wylfa Newydd site in Wales, used a novel approach that has not been used previously in the UK [ 5.7a]. As part of this, Liverpool’s research was used to develop a site-specific ground motion model which allowed the reduction in uncertainties and subsequently a reduction in conservatism.

As a result of Liverpool’s research, the contractor ARUP could utilise an approach that defines the earthquake criteria to ensure a consistent risk for all elements of the nuclear facility, and for which they were shortlisted for the Ground Engineering Awards 2020 [ 5.7a]. Taking advantage of Liverpool’s research, the criteria ensures a design “ with lower … uncertainty, ultimately reducing design costs, but ensuring safety and operational performance during earthquakes” according to the Associate Director of ARUP [ 5.7a]. A journal article [ 5.7b] written by the ARUP project team noted that “ the site-specific stochastic model [ 3.2, and updates thereof] was the preferred model from those included on the logic tree as it has been developed specifically for the Wylfa Newydd site, utilizing ground motion data recorded throughout the UK as well as at the WPS station adjacent to Wylfa Newydd.” More realistic seismic criteria that ensured an appropriate level of resilience and safety was therefore achieved, whilst ensuring unnecessary conservatism was removed and financial costs were minimised.

4.4 Assessed seismic risk to school buildings in Basel, Switzerland and aided mitigation measures to be targeted for increased public safety

Liverpool’s research [ 3.4, 3.5] has also provided improved seismic hazard assessment in Switzerland, highlighting the potential threat to school buildings in Basel [ 5.8]. To apply research into local seismic hazard assessments, a methodology was developed by Liverpool, alongside partners at ETH Zurich, for determining local-scale earthquake effects across a city-region [ 3.5].

The Head of Earthquake Hazard and Risk at the Swiss Seismological Service [ 5.9], notes that the “ research has allowed us to reduce uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard on a national scale – and consequently more accurate and reliable national seismic building codes, which ensure occupants safety during earthquakes. It has further facilitated the development of products aimed at improving disaster response that allow to direct help and resources immediately following an earthquake. At the smallest scale, school building stock in Basel has directly benefitted from this research, allowing the prioritisation of seismic retrofitting to vulnerable buildings and ensuring the safety of school children.”

An evaluation of the approach based on Liverpool research [ 5.8] was performed by ETH Zurich and the Swiss Seismological Service as part of a risk assessment into all school buildings in the city of Basel, funded by the Cantonal Emergency Organisation (KKO) of the Canton Basel-Stadt (the city Region of Basel). The study was published in technical reports and a journal article [ 5.8] in 2017. It was found that if there were a similar earthquake to the historical event that occurred in 1356, of 121 school buildings in Basel, 102 would be unusable, with 35 partially collapsing and 12 fully collapsing. Of 16,960 pupils in Basel, their estimates expected 305 fatalities and 1,814 injured. Total potential economic losses were assessed at 566 million Swiss Francs [ 5.8].

The study was subsequently used to identify school buildings that needed to be prioritised for seismic retrofitting measures [ 5.7]. This city-wide assessment of risk was supported through the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate and by the Swiss Federal Offices for the Environment, Roads, and Railways, the Swiss Earthquake Insurance Pool, and ETH Zurich. The method based on Liverpool’s research has further been implemented in the real-time monitoring of the Swiss Seismological observatory, facilitating the rapid identification of at-risk areas such that mitigating measures can be implemented [ 5.9, 5.10].

Research at Liverpool has informed the implementation of operational volcano monitoring systems in Guatemala by developing techniques for the real-time assessment of volcanic activity. The adoption of these new methods by INSIVUMEH in 2018 has:

• changed volcano monitoring practice in Guatemala

• influenced decision making for management of hazard areas near active volcanoes in Guatemala

• detected intensifying activity at Volcan de Fuego in November 2018 which informed an evacuation, and protected 3,925 people whose lives were at risk from eruptive activity

4.1 Volcano monitoring and local capacity building in Guatemala

In 2014 Liverpool researchers recognized that risk mitigation in Guatemala required a long-term commitment. Funding from European Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, and Society of Exploration Geophysics initiated a collaboration with INSIVUMEH to improve monitoring of Santa Maria-Santaguito. De Angelis and Lavallée designed a program centred on four elements:

1. research at Guatemalan volcanoes, in particular Santiaguito and Fuego

2. technical support in the implementation of a volcano monitoring system based on seismic and infrasound data

3. advisory roles to assist with the development of a volcano monitoring programme

4. training of local scientific and technical staff in Guatemala

The U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) confirmed that “one critical role of Dr. De Angelis is his ability to provide Guatemalan scientists with educational opportunities … that cannot be offered by a governmental organization” [5.2], that ”the primary focus of his work has been to increase the understanding of volcanoes and volcanic unrest” [5.2], and that Dr De Angelis ”has carried out his studies with a strong, consistent emphasis on simultaneously improving the capabilities of our Guatemalan colleagues” [5.2].

Long-term sustainability was at the core of the Liverpool-INSIVUMEH cooperation from its inception, as evidenced by the INSIVUMEH Director General, “Local capacity building in Guatemala is a central objective of […] INSIVUMEH; in this respect the role played by Dr. De Angelis has been central” [5.1a]. In January 2016, Lavallée co-led a ten-day workshop to train local staff and academics on monitoring instrument deployment and data analysis, specific to Guatemalan volcanoes [5.1b].

4.2 Responding to an eruption of Volcan de Fuego with technical advice and support

On June 3, 2018, an eruption of Volcan de Fuego “ killed 110 people, and 332 remain missing to date. Over 10,000 had to be relocated, and about 3,600 permanently lost their homes” [5.3]. Almost overnight Guatemala became dependent on outside expertise, requiring technical advice and support [5.4]. The Liverpool team led by De Angelis was the first in the country after the June 2018 eruption. The UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) provided funds “to install seismic and acoustic monitoring equipment and to implement some of their recent research into a real-time system for automatic detection of volcanic activity” [5.3]. According to the Director General of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO), De Angelis was “instrumental in the assessment of the situation on the ground in the aftermath of the eruption” [5.5].

The Guatemalan government’s Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres (CONRED) issued a request for assistance [5.4] to ECHO through its Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), and a team of experts was deployed to Guatemala. De Angelis’ name was “put forward for the ERCC mission by the UK Civil Contingencies Secretariat (Cabinet Office) based on his extensive body of research and work” [5.5]. He joined the ERCC mission on July 3, 2018 [5.5]. The mission concluded on 13 July having implemented a preliminary real-time monitoring system “directly derived from research published by Dr. De Angelis and colleagues” [5.5].

4.3 Developing a real-time volcanic monitoring system in Guatemala

De Angelis later returned to assist VDAP colleagues with the installation of additional equipment, which became the core of what is now an increasingly developing volcano monitoring program in Guatemala [5.1a, 5.2]. A framework for the analysis of acoustic data later published by De Angelis [3.6] had been implemented at INSIVUMEH as early as September 2018 to provide “for the first time a system … capable of detecting and alarming on volcanic explosions, pyroclastic flows and lahars at Fuego” **[5.1a]. ** In 2019 a Volcanic Scientific Advisory Committee (VSAC) was established to advise INSIVUMEH on volcanic risk assessment and strategic planning for volcano monitoring in Guatemala. Based on his world-class track record, De Angelis was nominated as a member of the Volcanic Scientific Advisory Committee [5.7].

In 2019, the Head of Volcanology at INSIVUMEH visited Liverpool to work on the implementation of new volcano monitoring tools through funding from the Society of Exploration Geophysics. De Angelis and INSIVUMEH developed additional software for the real-time calculation of monitoring parameters based on research published in [3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6]. According to the Director General of INSIVUMEH, the “new workflow at INSIVUMEH is based on research by Dr. De Angelis and colleagues, including improved processing to detect and track volcanic activity, assessment of explosion magnitude and evaluation of the volume of ash injected in the atmosphere during volcanic explosions” [5.1a]. In January 2020, De Angelis organized a workshop in Guatemala funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office to train 25 members of INSIVUMEH staff and civil protection officials on the new monitoring tools [5.1a, 5.2, 5.3].

4.4 Changing practice, influencing policy and saving lives in Guatemala

To date, the new volcano monitoring systems at INSIVUMEH have detected over 30,000 events, including volcanic explosions, lahars, and pyroclastic flows at Fuego. The work of the Liverpool team between 2014 and 2020 has significantly contributed to transforming volcano monitoring capacity in Guatemala [5.1a, 5.2, 5.3]. Liverpool research provided new tools for timely detection of eruptive activity, which have already influenced early warning practice and civil protection response during volcanic crises in Guatemala [5.1a, 5.5, 5.6, 5.7].

During the last episode of intensification of volcanic activity at Fuego, in November 2018, the new monitoring systems at INSIVUMEH, based on Liverpool research, detected an early escalation in eruptive activity. This information was instrumental for INSIVUMEH to advise the Guatemalan national civil protection authorities and to jointly recommend the evacuation of 3,925 people, whose life was under threat from the ongoing eruption [5.6].

The significance and reach of this impact is reinforced by the high levels of volcanic hazards across Guatemala, with 1,341,000 people living within 10 km of one of three active volcanoes. The 1902 eruption of Santa Maria claimed the lives of about 8,700 people and “ activity at Fuego could potentially affect an area populated by nearly 1,000,000 people, which includes rural areas where poverty frequently represents an aggravating factor” [5.1a].

4.5 Improving volcano monitoring practice in Italy, Ecuador and New Zealand

In the future, new monitoring systems similar to those implemented at INSIVUMEH will provide surveillance at other volcanoes instrumented with similar equipment. Liverpool has already instrumented the Santa Maria volcanic complex with a network of sensors integrated within the new systems and volcano monitoring protocols through funding from the Society of Exploration Geophysics. Based on the impact of the work in Guatemala and a successful track record, the Liverpool research team received invitations in 2020 from the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy to work on monitoring Mount Etna [5.8], the Instituto Geofisico, Ecuador [5.9], and the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, New Zealand [5.10] to collaborate on the development of infrasound monitoring systems. This is a powerful testament to the significant impact and international reputation of research in volcanology and geophysics at Liverpool.