Impact case study database

Their extensive body of research has enabled King’s researchers to partner with key authorities in national statistics. As a result, their work has influenced the production of economic and migration statistics in both the UK and Ireland. It has had a substantial impact in changing the thinking and operational parameters of the nation’s official statistical body, the ONS, with consequential benefits for the management of the world’s fifth largest economy and public understanding and debate. This influence has extended beyond the UK to the Central Statistical Office (CSO) of the Irish Republic.

Improving the operational parameters of the ONS

GDP is, along with inflation, the most widely used economic statistic. It plays a crucial role in the deliberations of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, for example, and affects the basis on which key policy decisions are made.

King’s research estimating GDP from VAT turnover data was specifically commissioned by the ONS via its research body, ESCoE, to tackle a challenge they identified – namely, that the time period covered by the VAT system does not match well with the period over which official monthly and quarterly statistics need to be generated. This issue is complex and far from easy to resolve and relates to the concept of “staggers” around the timing of VAT returns, which complicates how aggregate estimates are derived. The initial use of VAT utilised a simplified method; however, the ONS was aware this would potentially limit the use of VAT data and/or reduce the quality of the statistics produced.

The research represented the first systematic exploration of a key issue for the use of this data source and the resulting recommendations have been of high importance to developing ONS practice and policy. As noted by Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician at the ONS “a strong collaboration approach, underpinned by regular exchange of information between the researchers and ONS staff, have led to an improvement in the use of VAT data for official statistics” [A].

The findings are currently used to decide on the best methods to deal with the existing issues with VAT data, with the intention of using these methods for the regular production of estimates of monthly GDP. The use of the technique should reduce businesses’ reporting burden and deliver more accurate data accounting for about GBP500 billion of economic activity annually.

There is currently strong public interest in indicators of financial well-being and, in particular, the need to address the failure of the conventional measure of GDP growth to account for changes in the distribution of income. As such, the ONS has worked to improve their calculations in this area.

King’s research, again commissioned by the ESCoE, has contributed to the development of distributional national accounts, providing a new indicator of aggregate income growth that treats each household’s experience equally, to be used by the ONS [2]. This contrasts with existing measures, which give greater weight to the growth experience of high-income households.

The rapid development of the new indicator has been facilitated by King’s research, which “ clearly sets down the theoretical and practical issues that need to be addressed” [A]. Athow of the ONS explains that “ without this work our plans to develop distributional National Accounts would take longer, and perhaps would not be possible” [A].

King’s research [3] has provided valuable inputs to the ONS work on human capital, which is at the core of the ONS’s ‘beyond GDP’ agenda. An accurate measurement of human capital is essential to understand and expand the ONS’s role as a driver of inclusive economic growth.

King’s collaboration with the ONS ‘Well-being Team’, responsible for producing the estimates of Human Capital Services (HCS), began when O’Mahony was appointed as an ONS Fellow in 2015. O’Mahony subsequently produced an evaluation report on the existing HCS measures. A series of joint projects with ESCoE followed. These involved extending HCS to include dimensions such as health and regional mobility and developing a framework for incorporating HCS in national accounts, as requested by key government users [3].

As a result of this work, ESCoE requested O’Mahony to evaluate various estimates of exports in services generated by university education of foreign students. This work resulted in recommendations to the ONS on changing the methods and data sources to improve measures of education exports in the national accounts. As stated by Athow, “ it marks a useful contribution on this path, and links to our wider developments as set out in our public workplan” [A].

King’s research on migration has had two major strands of impact on the work of the ONS.

First, analytical research [4] resulted directly in a major work programme by the ONS to investigate the discrepancies between immigration statistics collected using the IPS and the National Insurance records. The work led to significant revisions to the published data and, in August 2019, to the quality assurance arm of the Statistics Authority withdrawing the National Statistics designation from the published long-term immigration statistics.

National Statistics designation is an indicator of the quality and reliability of published statistics, and King’s work reduced misguided reliance on data that would otherwise have misinformed policy. Indeed, these statistics are among the most high-profile and politically significant, and form the basis for the government’s target to reduce net migration: by making them more robust, policymaking is improved.

Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation at the Office for Statistics Regulation, considers this “one of the most material and important decisions made in [his] time as head of regulation, and has been heavily influenced by Professor Portes’ analysis” [B].

Secondly, King’s research [5] led the ONS to review its estimates of numbers of migrants from the EU, which were traditionally based on methodologies that were becoming less suited to measuring modern migration patterns. Athow of the ONS stated that “this work’s value is helping us understand and explore the way in which this data source could potentially be used in the future as part of our transformation work” [A].

Producing new productivity estimates for Ireland’s Central Statistical Office

Reliable productivity estimates at the industry level are important for a country such as Ireland, which depends highly on multinational corporations. Not only is this information critical for policy makers: these figures are also essential for anyone who uses statistics to inform their decision-making. O’Mahony has also been working with statisticians in Ireland’s CSO to develop and publish productivity accounts [6].

O’Mahony has had significant engagement with the CSO team to advise on how to improve methods and data sources. According to Michael Connolly, Head of National Accounts Integration, “O’Mahony’s expertise and insights were extremely helpful in providing alternative approaches for certain areas of the project where we had encountered difficulty” [C]. Based on her recommendations, a first set of productivity estimates were produced in 2016 with further publications planned. Her contributions are also acknowledged in the ‘Productivity in Ireland 2017’ report, published by the CSO [D].

The UK and US are facing major challenges with skill shortages in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) and other areas requiring technical knowledge. Business costs to UK firms are estimated at up to £6.5 billion, threatening economic growth and business competitiveness. To address this problem, King’s research has helped policy-makers and businesses identify where skills shortages are and advised them on how to create and manage apprenticeship programmes in the UK and US. These findings have benefitted government departments of education and lifelong learning, industry associations that support skill investments, businesses in different industries in the two countries, as well as the apprentices taking part in the new programmes.

Developing apprenticeship training programmes in the UK life sciences sector

King’s research by Lewis [1,2] identified the emerging need to train people with the right skills to fill manufacturing technician roles in the UK cell therapy industry, leading to the development of new apprenticeship training programmes. The Director of Programmes at the Gatsby Foundation, a charity one of whose goals is to promote technicians, described the immediate impact of Lewis’s work as follows: “His research was taken up by the Medicines Manufacturing Industry Partnership (MMIP) who, through Paul, approached Gatsby to discuss a possible project to address the technician issue. Gatsby met with BEIS and Innovate UK to discuss how technician skills in the sector could be supported and have agreed that Gatsby would fund a project to enable employers in the sector to collaborate on the development of an apprenticeship which would help to fill the technician skills” [A].

In 2017, the Chief Operating Officer of the Cell and Gene Therapy Catapult Centre (the institutional ‘home’ for the apprenticeship) described the impact of Lewis’s work as follows: “On the basis of your work and sustained commitment, the Gatsby Foundation has agreed to fund a project that will enable employers in the sector to collaborate on the development of an apprenticeship training programme that will help to fill the emerging technician skills gap. […] It is highly unlikely that this would have happened without your work” [B].

More specifically, the Gatsby funding, which ran from 2017-18, enabled the Cell and Gene Therapy Catapult Centre to employ a team of educational consultants who worked with employers to develop a manufacturing technician apprenticeship scheme to fill the skills gap. The Gatsby funding was made conditional on a guarantee of further government support for the scheme. This additional funding, which came on stream in 2018, was secured through an application to Innovate UK by the MMIP, an industry-led taskforce whose goal is to ensure that the UK remains a world-class centre for advanced medicines manufacturing. The application was informed by King’s research on the need for technicians [1, 2]. In the words of the MMIP Chairman, King’s research “was invaluable in understanding the scale of demand for technician roles and […] instrumental in securing interim catalytic funding from the Gatsby Charitable Foundation and ultimately £1.5 million of Innovate UK funding to support the development of the apprenticeships” [C].

The ultimate impact of the research was that 29 apprentices, drawn from 11 advanced therapies companies, began training in 2018. This grew to 72 apprentices across 29 employers in 2019-20 and reached 100 apprentices across 32 employers in September 2020 [D]. In 2020 the programme was also extended to Scotland [E, p13], and the UK government described the apprenticeships programme as an example of “what works” in policy that “UKRI will build upon” [F, p21]. Furthermore, the UK government saw the programme as an investment that “is already paying off – as these skillsets and techniques are capitalised in the pursuit of vaccines” [F, p21] – a critical area of research and development as illustrated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

More widely, Lewis’s research has influenced the High-Value Manufacturing Catapult to become more involved in technician training: “there is a clear line of sight from your writing and findings about the importance of technical training and its vital relationship with successful innovation, to our current proposals to formally extend the scope and scale of the Catapult's role in workforce development” [G]. The Welsh Government also benefitted from this work, with its Director of Skills writing that, “your work on skills in emerging industries has informed our thinking on support for the compound semi-conductor cluster of companies in and around Newport” [H].

Scaling up apprenticeship networks in the US

In the US, research by Fortwengel highlighting the potential of cross-national knowledge exchange of good practices for apprenticeship training [3, 4] led to the scaling up of inter-organisational networks to tackle local skills needs. The impact was achieved by improving awareness of the network solution, influencing the financial support for networks in the US and contributing to changing the practice of one prominent network. The new networks helped SMEs, which would not otherwise have the necessary financial and human resources to implement an apprenticeship programme, to engage in human capital formation.

Fortwengel actively shaped the conversation around apprenticeships, highlighting the promise of networks for effective implementation of good practices in workforce training in policy think-tank publications and outlets targeting a wider audience. His expertise led to the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research commissioning him to undertake a market demand study, which directly influenced decisions about the financial support available for the growth of existing and the creation of new apprenticeship networks. Fortwengel worked with the German American Chamber of Commerce, a critical player in the apprenticeship landscape that promotes German-style programmes. As stated by Stefanie Ziska, President and CEO of the German American Chamber of Commerce (South), the collaboration “led to a sustained growth of our activities to form new and extend existing apprenticeship networks in the states of Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Texas,” which in 2019 included 27 firms and 68 apprentices [I]. As a result, the number of inter-organisational networks managed by the German American Chamber of Commerce increased from one in 2016 to four in 2019, with three more launched in 2020 [I].

Furthermore, the market demand study led the German Federal Ministry to announce in 2020 “two calls to financially support the creation of additional apprenticeship networks and clusters. The support will likely be around EUR500,000 over a period of three years, and it will strengthen our strategic interest to support the demand-based training of skilled workers for German and US companies, and might as well serve as an action-based example for US State and Federal Government(s) and their attempts to reform their apprenticeship policies” [J].

Finally, the research led to the improved governance of one prominent network in the US, the Michigan Advanced Technician Training Program (MAT ²). This network comprises 20 active firms and 55 apprentices, but “historically, the administrative burden on the partnering firms has been quite high, causing inefficiencies and tensions” [K]. To address this challenge, the network took up the King’s research recommendations by hiring the German American Chamber of Commerce as a third-party organisation. Sophie Stepke, Training Manager of the ZF Group and chair of the strategic steering committee of MAT ², confirmed that “research done by Dr. Fortwengel has been influential in shaping the governance of the MAT2 network and shaped the decision to install the GACC [as an administrative organisation] in 2019…. [This decision] minimizes the resources to be spent by each individual firm on managing the network, thus lowering the barrier to entry into our apprenticeship offering” [K].

This intervention strengthened the network’s governance and had a significant impact on SMEs, which often cannot afford large investments. It also empowered individual apprentices to fulfil their potential. A testimonial from one of the graduate apprentices is illustrative: Nicholas “had always had an aptitude for technical and hands-on tasks… but he struggled with the traditional academic setting at his previous university. Nicholas dropped out of the engineering programme and was working as a security guard”, before opting for an apprenticeship with the network. “Nicholas has now graduated […] and is continuing to work for the employer that sponsored his apprenticeship” [L].

Overall, research by King’s researchers has been transformative not only for government departments, industry associations and businesses in the UK and the US. It has also enabled individuals in both countries to access apprenticeship programmes, fulfilling their potential and achieving their professional aspirations.

Central banks are increasingly concerned about the effects of structural changes such as those caused by Brexit, new digital technologies, or COVID-19, on the validity of models used for economic policy making and forecasting. This concern spans all kinds of models: from statistical models mainly used for forecasting to structural economic models used for narrative analyses of the evolution of the UK and world economy. Researchers from King’s Business School have collaborated with analysts at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) to produce a new model that resolves the problems associated with ‘time variation’ in economic data [A]. The new model has been successfully adopted by the two central banks, improving their analytical capability and leading to more robust policy decisions.

Developing a new forecasting model for the Bank of England

Over the past 18 years, King’s Business School Professor George Kapetanios has collaborated with the Bank of England on multiple projects, resulting in a profound impact on the work of several of its divisions. First and foremost, the modelling techniques co-developed by Kapetanios and colleagues at the Bank [4, A] have been formally implemented into the Bank’s computational processes used in its forecasting platform. The recommended time-varying modelling techniques have been used by various teams to produce models and analyses that have informed the Bank’s policy decisions, taken by members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Francesca Monti, former Head of Modelling in the Monetary Analysis Directorate, explains that the new model co-developed by King’s and Bank of England colleagues “ has been used to discuss various issues with the MPC, and particularly has been used to weigh in on the debate about the exchange rate pass-through, that is how exchange rate movements first affect import prices and then overall inflation, and how it has changed in time, with a rich structural model” [B]. King’s research contribution to understanding how exchange rates feed into inflation has been particularly significant in light of the 2016 Brexit referendum, which has increased exchange rate volatility and is presumed to change the UK's trade relations in a permanent way.

Additionally, in September 2019, when uncertainty about the Brexit deal was rife, the Modelling Team at the Bank of England used the newly developed time-varying estimation techniques [2] to inform the MPC on the impact of macro-economic and financial uncertainty on the UK economy. Dr Monti explains that “ the model was able to disentangle the differential effects of the two types of uncertainty on key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, inflation and other macroaggregates. It also gave very interesting insights on how the two types of uncertainty have affected the economy in different time periods” [B].

The new model [4] also informed the speech given by Bank of England Chief Economist, Andrew Haldane, at the 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming [C]. As the highest profile central banking conference in the world, the event brings together central bankers, financial market participants, government representatives, academics and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern. In his speech on ‘Market Power and Monetary Policy’ Haldane specifically cited the King’s research [4] when discussing the lower incidence of mark-up shocks. Using the King’s finding that over the last few decades the estimate of mark-up shock volatility in the UK economy has decreased, the research contributed to the discussion of developments in product markets and monetary policy. This finding has, in particular, important implications for the variability of inflation and hence the MPC’s ability to meet the inflation target. Ricardo Masolo, Research Manager of the Monetary Policy Outlook Division, explains that “ to the best of [his] knowledge no similar evidence was available for the UK” prior to Kapetanios’ model [D].

Improving the ECB’s modelling efforts and policy analysis

King’s research has also provided the ECB with useful tools for policy analysis, steering their internal policy work. This was enabled by Professor Kapetanios’ formal involvement as a consultant and by his frequent presentations at the ECB, including at the ECB Workshop on Forecasting Techniques and at the Working Group on Econometric Modelling in 2018. Under his direct guidance, many internal tools were produced to support the ECB staff with their economic monitoring and forecasting efforts.

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Senior Lead Financial Risk Expert at ECB, confirms that “ the work of Kapetanios provided us with more efficient reduced-form models for forecasting, as well as with more robust tools to analyse the monetary policy transmission mechanism” [E]. For the ECB, it was especially important to identify a more robust model because of the profound structural changes affecting the world economy, including those caused by globalisation, deregulation and the widespread use of information technologies, which have altered the transmission of monetary policy shocks. The new model [3] significantly helped the ECB adapt its economic estimates with respect to this changing environment. In fact, his contributions “ have been an important reference when setting up internal tools for the economic monitoring and forecasting of euro area macroeconomic developments. Many of those internal tools were developed under his direct guidance and leadership” [E]. His recent work on modelling time-varying volatility [4] has also informed internal ECB tools to monitor and measure market risk.

The King’s research collaboration has not only helped the ECB set up new policy tools, but also improved the analytical skills of the ECB staff. In fact, as reported by Camba-Mendez, “ Our cooperation with professor Kapetanios not only allowed us to quickly set-up tools for our regular economic and policy analysis, but has also been very important for strengthening the analytical skills of our ECB staff…his availability for some informal exchanges on his method has already provided us with very valuable information, and we very much look forward to future cooperation with Professor Kapetanios in this, as well as in many other areas of financial modelling where his expertise is very valuable to us” [E].

Despite the importance of communication skills as revealed by King’s research, optometrists traditionally receive limited education and training in communication, whether at university or through programs of Continuing Education and Training (CET). To address this issue, supported by the ESRC and the College of Optometrists, the King’s team worked together with colleagues in optometry based at Anglia Ruskin University and City University to create new training opportunities for optometrists. The innovative training has been delivered through workshops, publications and online modules for professionals, and is now taught in modules in the university setting.

Creating new professional development opportunities for optometrists

King’s researchers closely engaged practitioners throughout the research process in a variety of settings, sharing with them findings and recommendations to improve their optometry practice. For example, the researchers organised a credit-bearing workshop at Optometry Tomorrow 2014, the College of Optometry’s annual conference, AGM and exhibition. In addition, 8 credit-bearing workshops were held at King’s College London and at opticians’ practices in England (each with around 10 participants).

The participants were enthusiastic about the opportunities these workshops offered them, stating that “ I have learnt more about communication this afternoon than I did during my training” and “ We all found your presentation very useful and relevant to real life optometry” [A]. Also, a participant who manages a branch of Boots Opticians said that he and his team “ learned the importance that minute details of communication have for our patients’ experience and satisfaction” [B]. These activities contributed directly to the participants’ professional development, counting as credits for CET. CET is a statutory requirement for all fully qualified optometrists, and is a points-based scheme that practitioners are required to participate in throughout their career to update their skills and knowledge.

The King’s team further enhanced the impact of their research through publication of CET credit-bearing material for the magazines of the Association of Optometrists (the leading representative membership organisation for optometrists in the UK), ‘ Optometry Today’ (circulation of approximately 15,000) and ‘ The Optician’ [C,D,E]. These publications used the research findings to provide optometrists with new guidance for the use and avoidance of certain words, updated question styles and new approaches to improved communication with patients. The Clinical Editor of Optometry Today stated that the articles “ proved highly appealing to our readership. 781 optometrists passed the exams associated with the first article, and 842 optometrists passed the exam related to the second article. I am hoping for more articles by the team in the future” [F].

Developing an online CET credit-bearing course

As a result of the growing profile of the King’s research, the College of Optometrists developed a Communication Skills portfolio. The College of Optometrists saw great value in this portfolio, which was published in 2015 on its website [G], and decided in 2018 to turn it into a credit-bearing CET online course “Eye Examinations: improve your skills” (C-70016). Available to its 16,000 members on the College of Optometrists’ online learning website (DOCET), the online course focuses on communication skills and thus addresses one of the CET Competencies optometrists need to continually maintain.

The course has proven to be very popular, with 320 practicing optometrists enrolled on the course as of 31 December 2020. Of those, 228 successfully completed the course [H]. In their evaluation of the material, optometrists scored the module “ outstanding” [I]. The Director of Research for the College of Optometrists, who oversees this work, stated that: “[t]he learning material co-developed with King’s helps optometrists identify and understand how effective communication can improve the outcomes of a patient/clinician appointment. It assists them in understanding how relatively minor alterations to established habits and patterns of communication within an optometrist appointment can lead to improved experience and better clinical outcomes” [I].

Furthermore, participants in the online module highlighted that the module has helped them to change how they conduct eye exams. For example, one states that based on their learning, they have “ reorganised our furniture in our consultation rooms to ensure we always have eye contact with patients” [B]. Several optometrists say they will revise how they communicate with patients during history-taking and testing, that they will be “ tailoring tests to patients’ needs, rather than [using the] same routine for most” and “ will structure my appointments better to meet the needs of the patient” [J].

Influencing the development of university teaching programmes

King’s research further improved the knowledge and competency of practicing optometrists by influencing the development of university teaching programmes. Building on the success of the College of Optometrists’ course and recognising the enthusiasm of practitioners for the material, universities have used the research findings to enhance the teaching of communication skills in optometry programmes, further contributing to state-of-the-art techniques in conducting eye exams.

For example, the renowned Professor of Optometry, Professor Peter Allen at Anglia University, described the new communication skills portfolio as “ an extraordinary resource”, further stating that: “ Over the past five years, I have used the teaching material in the Optometry programme during the Introduction to Clinical Practice – Clinical Optometry 1 module. We are currently restructuring the course and have decided that interpersonal skills will be an integral part of all five Clinical Optometry modules. Approximately 70 students per year undertake the modules and are examined on the teaching material” [K].

The positive responses from practitioners who have engaged with King’s research through the new teaching material, workshops and publications demonstrate the significant impact the research has had on optometry training and practice. The research provided optometrists with the communication skills needed to conduct effective eye exams, ultimately improving their relationship with patients.

The implications of innovative research at King’s Business School gained widespread attention within the Church of England. The findings contributed to a significant organisational shift towards evidence-based policymaking within the Church, improving clergy effectiveness and the wellbeing of their communities.

Encouraging a shift to evidence-based policymaking in the Church of England

The project produced over 20 internal reports for the Church of England, tackling issues related to clergy wellbeing and effectiveness across the country [A]. The reports were viewed by a range of national policy bodies, including the House of Bishops and Ministry Council, and discussed annually at the National Continuing Ministerial Development Panel. As noted by Dr Tim Ling, former Head of Ministry Development in the Church of England, “The results [referring to A, (i)] were circulated to all diocesan Bishops in the Church of England and to their lead offices. This resulted in active debates about the nature of good practice, resource allocation and policy development” [B]. The research was drawn upon within key debates regarding clergy wellbeing at national and local levels [C]. For example, in June 2017, the General Synod dedicated a large proportion of their meeting to discussing clergy wellbeing, keeping the findings from this research at the heart of discussion on the need to better understand wellbeing issues for change to occur [C, (i)]. The research contributed to conversations about clergy work more widely, with the Church Times publishing three articles about the findings [D]. The articles highlighted the need for greater support for clergy under pressure, explicitly stating that “the study will inform ongoing work in the House of Clergy on well-being” [D, (ii)].

These sustained conversations led to a shift in thinking within the Church of England. A major legacy of the project is its role as a catalyst for a change in the organisational mindset relating to evidence-based policy development within the organisation. As noted by Dr Ling “… the decision-making culture within the National Church of England in this area has fundamentally changed in terms of the extent to which it draws on evidence and has resulted in increased investment in new research to support future policy decision, including the appointment of a full-time researcher in its Ministry Division nationally to lead on the Living Ministry Project” [B].

Enhancing clergy wellbeing and effectiveness

The shift to evidence-based policy-making across the Church of England has had a concrete, positive impact on the working lives of clergy. The evidence provided by King’s research led to higher investment in clergy wellbeing and professional development. One of the most significant and high-level impacts was on the future of nationwide theological education. The research provided evidence to support a major review by the Archbishops’ Council, seeking to understand the impact of investment on theological education nationally (GBP12,000,000 per annum). “The findings influenced how individual dioceses invested in continuing professional education shifting their practice and investment to areas of work identified by the research as being effective. The work also informed the formation of a new national Nurture Course (Pilgrim) for new Christians” [B].

A second notable investment, again in direct response to the research findings, is the Mission Partnership Development Worker (MPDW) project launched by the Diocese of Sheffield. The Church of England granted the Diocese GBP1,000,000 to run the MPDW project from 2015 to 2021 [E]. The project provides administrative support to clusters of 33 neighbouring parishes in the most deprived areas of Sheffield to allow clergy to devote more time to their calling and connecting with parishioners. A video prepared by the research team to promote the scheme to prospective clergy members of the Diocese of Sheffield features clergy who found the new scheme helpful. Rev Philip Ireson explains that he has noticed a difference in his workload since the beginning of the scheme: “I can now be thinking of developing youth work, for instance, which I couldn't have done” [F].

Thirty clergy members gave further description of the impact that the project had had on their lives, demonstrating a reduction in their administrative workload, freeing time for other activities. For example, two years into the MPDW project, compared with those from a control group (n=18), clergy with a support worker (n=13) reported spending more time on mission-related activities and performing activities that they feel competent at [A, (iii)]. Other reported advantages of reduced administrative workload included feelings of connectedness, closer working relationships with clergy in other parishes and more opportunities to share resources and ideas. The Project Manager to the Diocese of Sheffield, Graham Millar, noted the value of the scheme beyond clergy wellbeing: “ the Mission Partnership Development Workers have benefitted clergy in receipt of such workers, parishioner attendance and the financial position of their churches” [E].

Improving community life in the Dioceses of Sheffield

The MPDW project created jobs for nine support workers and potentially benefitted the 3,000 parishioners within the parishes that received additional support. For example, findings in internal reports produced for the Church of England [A] demonstrated that clergy with support were able to spend more time working with children and young people within their parish. A year later, the support workers remained in their roles and virtually all clergy involved in the project cited community events and new parishioner-led activities that were made possible by the project. One priest with a support worker reported that “having an MPDW lift the burden of admin has enabled me to spend more time with people, in particular running groups and courses in evangelism and discipleship. These groups and courses have been hugely beneficial in the spiritual health of our church family”. [A, (iv), p2] Another clergy member stated that “Within six months [of getting a support worker] we have got a messy church off the ground, new Sunday morning activities, more school engagement” [A, (iii), p6].

Two prominent parishioners in the diocese noted the impact of the scheme on the activities and initiatives that were run in their parishes:

“The parish nursing programme would not have happened without our Development Worker and it has greatly impacted the community by encouraging healthy children and families in one of the ten most deprived parishes in the country. The nursing scheme reaches out to people who are on the fringes of society who otherwise could not or would not contact GP services, because they may not have the means or confidence” [G].

“Having a Development Worker means we are more capable running larger events that extend much further into the community… activities included soft archery and Dr Bike and the event was attended by the police, fire, and ambulance services (who brought their vehicles). The children saw the emergency services in a different light which is hoped will build trust between children and these groups. Building such trust is crucial, especially with the police” [H].

Overall, the seven-year King’s research programme has significantly influenced decision-making within the Church of England, leading to enhanced clergy wellbeing and effectiveness, and improved activities and services for the parishioners of the Diocese of Sheffield.

In the wake of catastrophic failures in healthcare and needless patient suffering, official inquiries placed considerable blame on the low standard of care delivered by poorly trained and managed HSWs. This was particularly the case with the Department of Health 2012 report on the abuse of patients with learning disabilities at the Winterbourne View hospital and the 2013 Francis Report on the unnecessary deaths at the Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust. Both reports suggested that the dilution of skill mix through the increased use of unregistered HSWs, in the context of financial pressures and ongoing difficulties recruiting registered nurses, contributed to the care failures.

Having explored these shortcomings and generating the first meaningful evidence base on the training and development of HSWs, King’s researchers were well placed to contribute to an upskilling of HSWs. Influencing the establishment of career pathways for individual HSWs and prompting national and strategic organisational initiatives to improve the knowledge and capabilities of HSWs, this work enabled HSWs to develop and better use their skills to increase productivity and to deliver safer and more effective care.

Influencing the Creation of a National Strategy for HSW Training and Development

Published by Health Education England (HEE) in 2014, Talent for Care (TfC) [A] was the first ever national strategy for the training of HSWs in NHS England. King’s researchers were consulted by and made a formal presentation of their research findings to the HEE working group tasked with formulating this strategy [B]. Kirk Lower, National Lead for Talent for Care “was involved in the initial development of Talent for Care and as part of this remit met with Prof. Kessler to discuss his research findings, particularly on the training and development of health care assistants. Prof. Kessler also presented his research findings to the national stakeholder working group, chaired by Stephen Welfare, tasked with drafting Talent for Care” [B].

Generating opportunities for HSWs to Get In, Get On and Go Further in the workplace, TfC sought to resolve the weaknesses in the training and development for this group of workers as revealed by King’s researchers, particularly given their increased replacement of nurses in bedside care [2,3]. In particular, the TfC strategy supported the construction of career pathways highlighted by King’s as previously under-developed [3]. Such pathways were designed to encourage HSWs to progress through different support roles and into registered nursing, helping to meet HSW career aspirations and, in the process, address shortages of registered nurses [A].

Given the disordered approach to HSW skills development highlighted by King’s [3], TfC also fostered a more formal approach to the assessment of HSW training needs through more ordered and regular individual performance reviews. Such reviews were integral to workforce planning and the general performance management of NHS trusts, as regularly assessed and rated by the Care Quality Commission. Moreover, given King’s evidence highlighting the ‘success’ of advanced support workers [4,5], TfC urged and nurtured the development of innovative support roles seen as contributing to organisational strategies designed to further the broader NHS policy goal of developing more person-centred healthcare [A].

Evaluating the Positive Impacts of Talent for Care

Indicative of their expert contribution to the development of TfC, King’s researchers were invited by HEE to undertake an initial evaluation of the strategy in mid-2016 [C]. As attested by Jane Hadfield, National Senior Programme Manager – Apprenticheships at HEE, the King’s report “provided valuable insight into how Talent for Care was viewed and being used by Trusts in NHS England. It highlighted, in particular, the positive impact the strategy was having on organisational policy and practice, designed to improve support worker opportunities for training and development” [D]. Comprising some 20 case studies of NHS Trusts, the evaluation found that TfC had gained considerable traction. Often for the first time, HSW training and development were being considered at board level, prompting changes in practice designed to increase recruitment to the HSW role, provide more structured training opportunities and allow career progression into more advanced roles. TfC’s positive impact was confirmed in a survey of healthcare providers in NHS England, undertaken by King’s as part of this evaluation. The survey found that close to one in two (48%) NHS Trusts in England had discussed TfC at board level; over half (52%) had developed a written plan for the implementation of TfC; and most (83%) agreed or strongly agreed that “TfC had provided a ‘useful’ framework for the training and development of HCSWs” [C]. In terms of new practice as suggested by TfC, the survey revealed that almost all Trusts (94%) had introduced a more robust induction programme for HSWs; over two-thirds (69%) had developed formal competency frameworks for HSWs; and close to three-quarters (70%) had established secondment schemes for HSWs to train as registered nurses [C].

This prompted King’s researchers to convene four regional workshops attended by over 100 local practitioners, allowing attendees to explore and communicate ‘good’ practice on the training and development of HSWs.

Refreshing Talent for Care: Creating New Career Pathways for HSW

In the context of policy shifts, the government’s encouragement of apprenticeship training in the NHS and the development of a new, registered advanced support role, HEE sought a follow-up review of TfC designed to ensure its ongoing value to healthcare employers. HEE again turned to King’s researchers to assist in this review. Drawing on new case-study and survey research, the re-evaluation by King’s researchers [E] found that TfC had lost some momentum among healthcare employers as they placed increased emphasis on work experience as a route into the HSW role, sought to use apprenticeships as the basis for HSW training and endeavoured to address shortages of registered nurses. Vanessa Convey, National Senior Programme Manager - Talent for Care at HEE, explained that “[t]he study findings directly informed the HEE process instigated to refresh the Talent for Care strategy” [F] and explicitly prompted HEE to work towards a refresh of TfC [G], ensuring it was better aligned with HSW training requirements and the evolving needs of healthcare employers. The refreshed TfC documentation is forthcoming.

The reevaluation also presented an opportunity for King’s researchers to highlight the need for an enhanced apprenticeship career pathway for HSWs that allowed them to progress into registered nursing. This pathway was launched in 2017 and is increasingly used by hospital Trusts, with Department of Education data for 2019 indicating around 1,150 individuals on the HSW apprenticeship, 1,600 on the Senior HSW apprenticeship and 1,200 on the nurse degree apprenticeship [H].

The impact of King’s research through TfC on organisational policy and practice has also been apparent in the development of advanced Assistant Practitioner (AP) support roles. Indicating the ongoing and layered impact on workforce development, King's researchers were asked to investigate AP roles and commissioned by the NHS Assistant Practitioner Network to carry out a survey of the role [6]. The research has been used to dispel myths and give clear insight into what the role is and who might take it up. For example, the Royal College of Nursing makes direct reference to the King’s survey research in the information presented to encourage its HSW members to take up this role [I], with workforce data from NHS Digital indicate that the number of Assistant Practitioners in post has increased in recent years. Overall, therefore, this research at King’s has contributed to major government and organisational initiatives, improving the skills and prospects of HSWs and advancing the quality of healthcare in England.

House prices in England and Wales have increased rapidly in the last two decades at considerable cost to society, reducing affordability and leading to homelessness. Research at King’s Business School has shown that foreign investment has been a major contributing factor to this increase.

Dr Filipa Sá disseminated these research findings through a variety of routes to ensure a wider public understanding of the issues involved. For example, on 15 May 2018 she was interviewed on her research [1] by VoxEU, a portal connecting research-based policy analysis to the wider public [A]. This sparked media attention and Sá was invited to give an interview in April 2018 with BBC Radio 4 [B] to discuss how foreign investment has increased house prices and reduced home ownership, and the potential policy implications of her research – specifically the need to relax constraints on housing supply. Consequently, the research was also reported by other national news outlets and cited by journalists when covering the policy discussions around a stamp duty surcharge for foreign investment [C].

The findings of [3] were also cited by the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in an article about measuring the effect of monetary policy on house prices, widely circulated in their August 2015 Economic Newsletter [D].

Influencing the introduction of a stamp duty surcharge on foreign investment in the UK

As demonstrated by King’s research [1], foreign investment increases house prices and reduces homeownership rates. To address this issue, in its Budget of October 2018, the UK government announced the introduction of a Stamp Duty Land Tax surcharge on non-UK residents purchasing residential property in England and Northern Ireland. The Spring Budget 2020 confirmed that the surcharge rate would be 2% and would come into effect from 1 April 2021 [E]. It also confirmed that “ money raised from a 2% non-UK resident Stamp Duty Land Tax surcharge will be used to help fund policies to reduce rough sleeping in England” [E, p54]. The government believed that introducing the surcharge “ *will help to control house price inflation, thereby assisting residents in getting onto the housing ladder in line with the government’s wider objectives on homeownership.*” [F, p2].

The surcharge was first announced by then Prime Minister Theresa May at the Conservative Party conference on 29 September 2018, where she stated: “Last year I made it my personal mission to fix another broken market: housing. We cannot make the case for capitalism if ordinary working people have no chance of owning capital. To put the dream of home ownership back within their reach, we scrapped stamp duty for most first-time buyers… and this week we have announced that we will charge a higher rate of stamp duty on those buying homes who do not live and pay taxes in the UK, to help level the playing field for British buyers. The money raised will go towards tackling the scourge of rough sleeping” [G].

Speaking on the Andrew Marr show on 30 September 2018, Theresa May emphasised the impact of King’s research explicitly, stating “we’re very concerned about the impact that actually foreign buyers have on the housing market and the impact they have on people who are living here who are trying to get onto the housing market. Because the evidence is, and this isn’t from government, King’s College London, for example, show that foreign buyers coming in actually push house prices up and lowers home ownership here in the UK. I want to ensure that people here in the UK are able to own their own homes. And the money we raise from this extra stamp duty on foreign buyers, people who are non-tax resident in the UK, is going to be spent on dealing with the issue of rough sleeping” [H] .

The government published a consultation in January 2019 on a surcharge of 2% for non-residents buying residential property in England and Northern Ireland [F]. This proposed surcharge went through a public consultation phase (11 February to 6 May 2019) and received 78 written responses from developers, estate agents, individuals and other organisations. The government also held 13 meetings with a variety of stakeholders to better understand their views on the proposed surcharge. The results of the consultation demonstrated that overall respondents welcomed the government’s underlying policy objective of supporting home ownership, with a number believing that the surcharge would support this objective [I].

The culmination of these consultations came before the November 2019 general election, where the surcharge was mentioned in the Conservative Party’s election manifesto [J]. Underpinning the desire to ‘unleash Britain’s potential’, King’s research [1] was again used in an official party press release to corroborate the argument that “by adding significant amounts of demand to limited supply, there is evidence that non-resident purchases inflate house prices” [K]. In particular, to support the introduction of the surcharge, the press release stated that “a study by Kings College London estimated that a one percentage point rise in the volume share of residential transactions registered to overseas companies leads to an increase of about 2.1 per cent in house prices, and lowers the overall homeownership rate” [K].

As such, King’s research had clear impact in shaping the introduction of a new tax that is expected to benefit the UK population by reducing house price inflation, promoting home ownership and raising revenue to reduce rough sleeping.

King’s research on labour market requirements and the UK education system has informed policy debates around education and directly influenced government policy, ultimately leading to improved education outcomes for GCSE students and reformed technical education programmes. Three major government education reviews have drawn directly on Wolf’s research findings: one review was led and sole-authored by her, and the second and third reviews drew directly on her research and direct input. Wolf frequently publishes research-based reports for various think tanks [A] and is a regular witness for parliamentary committees. Her acknowledged research-based expertise in these areas has led to her part-time secondment to the No 10 Policy Unit and her research feeds directly into the formation of government skills policy [B].

The Wolf Review: changing government policy on GCSE requirements

The most significant impacts to date result from Wolf’s single-authored 2011 Review of Vocational Education (‘The Wolf Review’) carried out for the UK Government and for which she was awarded a CBE and a cross-bench life peerage. The Wolf Review’s 2011 recommendations were accepted in full and implemented sequentially, many of them between 2014 and 2019.

For example, based on Wolf’s research on the types of skills and knowledge required by the UK labour market [1,2], as well as on the Review’s analysis of the institutional disincentives leading to a near-abandonment of GCSE resits, a key recommendation was that all students aged 16–19 years who had not achieved GCSE A*–C should continue with Maths and English. Outlined in the July 2014 Further Education Workforce Strategy, published by the Department for Business Innovation & Skills, a commitment was made to reform Maths and English GCSEs to make them both more stretching and more relevant to employers’ needs [C p.4]. Since 2017, the new GCSEs have become the national standard qualifications for 16–19-year-olds in full-time education who did not achieve a good pass in these subjects by the age of 16 years. They now take account of real-world contexts and provide greater assurance of literacy and numeracy [C p.4]. The reform has subsequently led to a very large increase in GCSE passes among 16–18-year-olds who had not achieved A*–C grades at the age of 16 years, from 9% in 2014 to 21% in 2018, and to an overall increase in the proportion of each cohort passing overall [D].

The Sainsbury Review: developing new pathways for technical training

In highlighting the shortcomings of the UK vocational education system and the problems in the performance of the youth labour market, the Wolf Review generated an important policy debate on how to transform the education system to tackle both the UK skills shortage and the lack of career pathways for students. In 2014, this prompted the Secretary of State for Education and the Minister for Skills to establish an Independent Panel on Technical and Professional Education, chaired by Lord Sainsbury, to explore these issues, with a special focus on the lack of quality technical education pathways at the upper secondary school level. Wolf, who was invited to join the panel as the only academic expert, co-authored the report.

The Panel’s report (known as the Sainsbury Review) [E] drew extensively on the Wolf Review as well as on Wolf’s research [1,2,5] to illustrate the discrepancies between labour market demand and government funding for education. Its main recommendations were the creation of two distinct pathways post-16 (academic and technical) and 15 additional routes encompassing all technical education qualifications at levels 2–5 to equip individuals with the knowledge, skills and behaviours necessary to perform well in an occupation. By offering 15 technical education routes, the aim was to help the government overcome the failings of an overly complex system that used to offer more than 13,000 qualifications for 16–18-year olds.

Its recommendations were incorporated into and formed a large part of the government’s Post-16 Skills Plan, published in 2016 and referencing Wolf’s recommendations that only the highest quality qualifications valued by employers should be funded and that qualifications in Maths and English, which best enable adult learners to progress to GCSE standard, should be identified [F]. Following the 2015 election, the Post-16 Skills Plan was launched implementing the ground-breaking recommendations of the Sainsbury Review, thereby creating new T-level qualifications for students at 16+, which are integrated with apprenticeship routes. The first students enrolled in September 2020. The Plan also led to the restructuring of the Institute for Apprenticeships, as an organisation which ensures high-quality apprenticeship and funding standards and is assigned responsibility for overseeing and delivering the 15 core technical routes mandated by the Technical and Further Education Act of 2017.

The Augar Review: reforming non-university post-18 education

Growing concern within the government about the decline in higher-level technical education, skills shortages and underfunding of Further Education led to the creation, by Prime Minister May, of the ‘Independent Review of Post-18 Education and Funding’ headed by Philip Augar, which produced the Augar Review in 2019—the first government review since Robbins in 1963 to investigate the whole of post-18 education [G]. Wolf was one of the panel’s six members, and her research was highly important in raising governmental awareness of the need for reform, especially in areas where the economic theory of human capital shaped funding decisions, leading to investments in low-level qualifications with poor labour market returns. [text removed for publication].

Wolf was the main author of two chapters in the report—on skills and on further education—and many of the report’s key recommendations reference and draw on her research. The first three recommendations in the Skills chapter [G, p. 33 – 61]—which are also the first three in the report—directly reflect her research [3,5] and her most recent substantial report ‘ Remaking tertiary education’ written for the Education Policy Institute and distributed across government [A]. The report called for “a single lifetime tertiary education entitlement, which can be drawn down as a loan in whatever instalments an individual pleases, whenever they wish, and used at any approved tertiary institution” [A p. 67]. This policy would significantly reduce the cost of loans to students and also the cost to taxpayers, enabling resources to be effectively reallocated to other forms of education in order to meet labour market demands and address skills shortages. It argued that this is a precondition for any significant improvement in the quality, openness and employment relevance of the system.

The Augar Review also called for a rebalancing of expenditure on Further Education: this is now a stated objective of the current government. The 2019 Budget delivered on Manifesto commitments with a large capital increase and a National Skills Fund worth GBP2,500,000,000 for further education and skills training over five years; additionally, in September 2020, the Prime Minister set out government policy for skills reform, including a flexible lifetime higher education loan, which was the number one Augar Review recommendation [I].

Informing the government’s developing skills policy

Following her involvement in the reviews, Wolf was appointed a part-time expert adviser to the Prime Minister on skills. Her research feeds directly into the government’s policy for developing skills, developed by the No 10 Policy Unit, the Department for Education and HM Treasury. In particular, her research has been of direct and major importance in helping the government rethink its Further Education and Skills policy by identifying the mismatches between skills demands and educational provision. As Director of the No 10 Policy Unit, points out, “in all three government departments, Professor Wolf’s research is being drawn on very actively to inform policy and funding decisions” [B].