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Submitting institution
University of Portsmouth
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Pierre Failler is the leading exponent of ‘Blue Governance’ (BG), an approach to managing aquatic ecosystems that combines and expands upon Blue Growth (BGr) and Blue Economy (BE) strategies. It places ecosystems and their governance at the forefront of decision-making, positioning them as the central component of sustainable economic policies that pertain to marine environments and resources. Failler’s research and engagement with stakeholders is significant as it has led to the improved design [and ongoing] implementation of more sustainable ocean management policies at both international and national level:

At the international level, Failler’s vision of BG has gone beyond shaping global policy discourses on how ecosystems are valued and their contribution to human wellbeing, to the more practical issue of designing regional BE strategies and toolkits. This is most evident in the African case, where his recommendations have been incorporated into the regional strategies of the African Union (54 countries) ( Impact 1) . At the national level, Failler’s research has led to the design of localised BG strategies that are now being implemented in various countries, including the Bahamas (Americas), Bangladesh (Asia), and the Seychelles (Africa) ( Impact 2).

2. Underpinning research

Failler has been providing expert advice to such stakeholders since his appointment at Portsmouth in 1997. In 2005 he led a EUR4,100,000 EU-INCO project (ECOST, 2005-2010) bringing together 23 partners spanning Asia, Africa, the South Pacific, Europe and the Caribbean to evaluate the societal costs of fishing practices and fishery policies ( G1). The 102 peer-reviewed journal outputs and the associated reports and briefing papers that resulted subsequently informed fishing policy across the globe, even attracting favourable comment in the New York Times (14/1/2008). Failler subsequently led or was a key participant in projects funded by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (fisher migration in West Africa, 2009), World Wildlife Fund (fisheries policy and fisher poverty in West Africa, 2012), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-France (coral reef evaluation in the Caribbean) and the EU (Assistance Mechanism for the Atlantic Action Plan, 2014). In the latter project, one of the key tasks was to ensure the Plan’s objectives were fully coherent with the EU’s “Blue Growth” (BGr) initiative. This led Failler to speculate whether an objective (growth) was indeed realisable if underlying governance systems relating to that objective are ignored – and hence the notion of ‘blue governance’ (BG) came to increasingly dominate his thinking.

The question of how aquatic ecosystems are valued is central to BG research. However, Failler argues that merely valuing ecosystems is insufficient as while economic valuation “can contribute to improving decisions, helping ensure that environmental concerns are taken fully into account, [it is] not a replacement for deliberation, but rather part of it” ( R1, p.371). Instead, the multi-disciplinary BG approach he has developed proposes that structures and processes are designed to ensure accountability, transparency, responsiveness, rule of law, stability, equity and inclusiveness, empowerment, and broad-based participation.

Failler’s growing stature in the fisheries field saw him invited in late 2014 to work with the UN Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) in the development of its first public product - its Conceptual Framework (2015). Failler’s role was to offer expert insight and practical examples of how ‘institutions and governance systems determine, to various degrees, the access to, and the control, allocation and distribution of components of nature and anthropogenic assets and their benefits to people’ ( R2, p.6). This allowed him to expand upon the central tenets of the BG approach – namely, how governance systems can be mobilized to ‘foster the recovery of many depleted marine ecosystems (nature), fisheries (nature’s benefits to people) and their associated food security and lifestyles (good quality of life)’ ( R2, p8). It is from this underpinning research that the unique approach of BG emerged. He was subsequently appointed as a lead author for the IPBES regional report on Biodiversity and Eco-Services for Africa, taking the role of joint coordinating lead author (with Kasisi) on Chapter 2: Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) and the Quality of Life. The chapter, which drew extensively upon his previous research (seven of his published articles are cited), emphasized the need to elevate and operationalize the contribution of indigenous and local knowledge ( R3, p.70). It also delineated how NCP is critically, and crucially, mediated through governance systems, irrespective of whether these contributions take a material (i.e.: fish as a protein source), non-material (i.e.: recreational and spiritual fulfilment), or regulating (i.e.: marine protected areas) form ( R3, p.81). These ideas fed into the co-authored 2018 Science publication where NCP is identified as ‘one of the more recent key elements in the IPBES conceptual framework’, and which ‘elevates, emphasizes, and operationalises the role of indigenous and local knowledge in understanding NCP’ ( R4, p.270). Inevitably, the holistic nature of the BG approach and the specificity of indigenous/local knowledge and governance systems means policy solutions must be devised – and applied - in a case-specific manner.

The growing recognition of the potential of the BG approach and the NCP conceptual framework for policy-making has resulted in Failler being commissioned as both project lead and/or lead author on a growing number of projects and regional/national policy and strategy papers. These include the Africa Blue Economy Strategy ( R5), and the recent UN-Environment Project on defining a Blue Economy Approach and Guidelines ( G2). He has also worked with the World Bank on synthesizing the BG and Blue Economy approaches to aquatic development, a collaboration that spawned a publication in a peer reviewed journal on the policy options for delivering the Blue Economy in Bangladesh ( R6).

3. References to the research

(R1) Tinch, R. et al. (2019). Economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services: a review for decision makers. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 8(4), 359-378. https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2019.1623083 (21 authors including Failler, P).

(R2) Díaz, S. et al. (2015). The IPBES Conceptual Framework - connecting nature and people. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 14, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2014.11.002 (84 authors including **Failler, P.**).

(R3) Failler, P. et al. (2018) Chapter 2: Nature’s contributions to people and quality of life. In IPBES (2018): The IPBES regional assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services for Africa. In Archer, E., Dziba, L., Mulongoy, K. J., Maoela, M. A., & Walters, M. (Eds.). Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, Germany, pp. 77–130. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3236178

(R4) Díaz, S. et al. (2018). Assessing nature's contributions to people. Science, 359(6373), 270-272. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap8826 (30 authors including **Failler, P.**).

(R5) Failler, P. et al. (2019). Africa Blue Economy Strategy. Nairobi: African Union – Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR). https://osf.io/3vy94/?view_only=ea6924dc03bd4f728f5635e81ee6bfc6

(R6) Failler, P., Gulam Hussain, M., Alam, K., Al Karim, A. (2019). Policy interventions for the Blue Economy of Bangladesh. Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics, 6(2): 1-31. https://doi.org/10.15351/2373-8456.1099

The references above contain four peer-reviewed journal articles (R1, R2, R4 and R6), one book chapter (R3) and one policy report (R5). Following peer-review, R 3 and R4 were adjudged as of 2* REF2021 quality. To date, R1 and R4 have been cited 1,265 and 836 times, respectively.

Exemplary grants

(G1) Failler, P. ECOST “Ecosystem, Consilience and Societal Costs of Fishing in Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Funded by the European Commission, January 2005- December 2008 (GBP434,182).

(G2) Fletcher, S. & Failler, P. Sustainable Blue Economy, Funded by the United Nations, September 2020- August 2021 (GBP120,741)

4. Details of the impact

Failler’s research has had a strong and long-term impact upon public policy at both the international and national level. These policies, in turn, are leading to the improved design of environmental policy in the aquatic field across a growing number of (implementing) countries.

Impact 1: Changing International Policy

Africa is a significant testing ground for BG policies. Three of its large marine ecosystems (LMEs) rank within the first four most productive LMEs in the world. If all catches in African waters were landed in Africa, the sector could contribute a landed value of USD20 billion to national economies, with an additional USD3.6 billion injected by the small-scale fishing sectors across the value chain. This represents 1.26% of the GDP of all African countries (and up to 35% for some of the small island states). Not surprisingly, the fisheries of Africa provide a source of livelihood for 8,000,000 active fishers and their families, with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimating as many as 6,000,000 of these could be in poverty ( R3).

Failler was appointed as the joint co-ordinating lead author (overseeing the research of 14 national experts) for the IPBES African regional assessment chapter on ‘NCP and Quality of Life’ in April 2015. His specific contributions were to; (i) identify the mix of governance options, policies and management practices that are currently available to reduce the loss of aquatic biodiversity and of NCP in that region, and (ii) provide a series of take-home messages for revitalising international policy development on the theme. His influence was strongly evident in the second of the two exhortations The Future we Want – Making it Happen Together in the final report, highlighting to policy-makers that “Governance options that harness synergies and deliver multiple benefits, supported by an enabling environment, can help to balance patterns of access and allocation of ecosystem services in Africa. Policy coherence may also contribute towards poverty reduction and help to build resilience.” (the emphasis is ours) ( S1, p. 15).

It also led the African Union to take action following at the Nairobi Sustainable Blue Economy Conference of November 2018. African leaders at the Conference directed the African Union to work with “relevant stakeholders to develop a blueprint of Africa’s Blue Economy Strategy (ABES) that will guide sustainable development and utilization of resources of the Oceans, Seas, Lakes and Rivers for blue economy growth and livelihoods” ( R5, p. ix). Failler was appointed in June 2019 as one of six experts, and his imprint is clearly evident in the final February 2020 document ( S2). Central to the Strategy was the creation of a BG Office reporting directly into the higher echelons of the AU decision-making hierarchy. Its mission is to ensure policy coherence, not only in the realms relating to the management of biological resources (i.e.: fisheries), non-biological resources (i.e.: oil and energy) and ocean governance, but also ensuring BG policy aligns with the longer-term objectives of the African Union Agenda 2063, Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy 2050, the UN Agenda 2030 (SDGs), and the 2016 Lomé Charter on Maritime Security and Safety. According to Dr. Mohamed Seisay at the Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources, the BG policy framework under the leadership of Failler is ‘likely to be a real game-changer in terms of not only more effectively measuring nature’s contribution to people at the international level, but also in providing ever more effective pathways out of poverty for many African fishers and their families’ ( S3).

ABES is accompanied by an 89 point Blue Economy Implementation Plan 2021-2025, with BG being the ‘overarching thematic area’ ( S4, p.3). The Plan pledged to implement a specialist BG toolkit combining BE natural capital accounting, marine and freshwater spatial planning, BE Standards (to ensure the sustainability of production, trade and consumption of BE goods and services) and innovative ‘blue’ funding mechanisms (such as the ‘blue bonds’ issued by the Seychelles) along the lines advocated by Failler across the region ( R5). These tools and techniques were developed under the UNECA Blue Economy and Natural Capital Accounting Systems Programme, trialled in Djibouti, Rwanda and the Seychelles, and endorsed by UNECA in December 2020 ( S5). As UNECA states : ‘The BE Valuation Toolkit and Operational Manual are superlative additions to the armoury of analytic techniques we have available for implementing environmental policy across the African aquatic arena. Failler’s role in helping us develop the toolkit in accord with BG principles is worthy of the highest praise.’ ( S6).

Impact 2: Changing National Strategy

The integration of the concept of BG and its principles into the governance of oceanic ecosystems is, moreover, growing at the national level across the globe. To cite just three examples drawn from three distinct developing regions:

  1. Bangladesh (2016-):

The expansion of Bangladesh’s territorial waters by more than 30% in 2014 following the resolution of territorial differences with Myanmar offered the country unprecedented development opportunities in sectors such as fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, trade and energy. The challenge, as noted in ( R6), was how to take such opportunities and develop smart and sustainable strategies to maximise them – given more than 30,000,000 Bangladeshis are dependent upon the ocean economy. Failler was invited (September 2016) to work as part of a World Bank/EU team with the Bangladeshi government on a BE strategy and policy that would unlock these opportunities and thus realise the nation’s blue economy aspirations.

In parallel he was contracted by the Bangladeshi Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to work more explicitly on the more immediate policy solutions required in terms of the countries extended marine space pending the approval and subsequent implementation of the comprehensive WB/EU BE strategy (published as Toward a Blue Economy: A Pathway for Sustainable Growth in Bangladesh, 2018). The MOFA policy paper (2018) lamented that current institutional arrangements in the country were based on a sector by sector management approach, which was insufficient for sustainable ocean governance. Instead a BG-centric approach was recommended with the prime task of the establishment of a coordination unit across the different government ministries that had previously been working in isolation. In policy terms interventions were proposed across eight policy domains, interventions which all found echo both in a subsequent research paper ( R6) and in the amendment of existing policies. “Mr. Failler’s work with colleagues from the Maritime Affairs Unit of the MOFA was instrumental in initiating moves towards a Blue Economy/Blue Governance approach to ocean governance in Bangladesh. The six-point solutions advocated in just one policy domain (fisheries management) have already led the government to enforce restrictions on fishing (including catching and selling undersized fish), in an effort to boost fish stocks, many of which are on the brink of collapse and indeed, it has paved the right pathway towards a sustainable fisheries management.” ( S7).

  1. The Seychelles (2019-):

The Seychelles established a Department for Blue Economy to coordinate the country’s sustainable development strategy in 2015. In January 2018 it adopted the BE Strategic Policy “Roadmap” 2018-2030 which mandated the development of strategic guidelines for the development of a sustainable ocean-based economy. Failler, given his expertise, was asked in April 2019 to develop a Blue Economy Vision for the Seychelles. The Blue Economy Action Plan ( S4) was approved in April 2020. It; (i) proposed practical ways to address the gaps in existing BE policy documents; (ii) identified priority areas for BE interventions, and (iii) offered a detailed set of actions for the next five years. The Plan advocated a governance framework that emphasised the importance of blue financing and integration across aquatic sectors, while highlighting the need for policy to be informed by an understanding of culture and the social impact of changes in the ocean environment. Embedded centrally within the Action Plan was a commitment to develop a blue natural accounting framework. According to Mr Kenneth Racombo, Principal Secretary at the Ministry of Fisheries and the Blue Economy (Republic of Seychelles), Failler’s “ideas and counsels have played a major role in helping bring this policy document to fruition”. ( S8).

  1. The Bahamas (2019-):

Following the adoption of its first National Maritime Policy in 2015, the approximately 100 islands making up the Commonwealth of the Bahamas chose to embrace BE principles for the valorisation of its ocean space and the diversification of its economy. Failler was contracted in September 2019, and the Bahamas Strategy for Blue Activities over the period 2020-2025 was delivered and approved in Summer 2020. Though it shares similarities with the strategy for Seychelles, in that it encourages cross-sector and cross-ministry cooperation, as well as regional integration of management, it focuses more on the use of NCP arguments to justify the mitigation of hazards, the reconstruction of natural coastal defences and enhancing the resilience of ecosystems ( R3). This was perhaps logical as the impact of Hurricane Dorian (August-September 2019) made all too clear to national policy-makers the importance of coastal ecosystem restoration if the country were to cope with future climate change-related events. As a direct result of the strategy, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) provided a loan of USD200,000 to the country to finance the BG strategy, including the restoration of reefs on the two islands that were almost entirely submerged during Hurricane Dorian - Grand Bahama and Great Abaco (which have a combined population of almost 65,000 people) ( S9).

Together, the above international and national impacts have contributed to shifting discourses relating to aquatic ecosystems in order to better recognise their importance beyond economic output, instead considering their more holistic role in terms of NCP and climate change mitigation.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

(S1) IPBES: The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa – Summary for Policymakers, 2018.

(S2) Letter from Professor Emma Archer, University of Pretoria, South Africa, 18.01.2021.

(S3): Letter from Dr. Mohammed Seisay, Senior Fisheries Officer (Coordinating Implementation of ABES), Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources, Nairobi, Kenya, 12.09.2020.

(S4) African Union: Africa Blue Economy Strategy, Implementation Plan 2021-25, 2020.

(S5) UNECA: The Blue Economy Valuation Toolkit (BEVTK) - Presentation and Operational Manual, Final Report – Output No 6, December 2020.

(S6) Letter from Dr Mama Keita, Director, Sub-Regional office, East Africa (SRO-EA), United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Kigali, Rwanda, 25.01.2021.

(S7) Letter from MOfA relating to the creation of the Bangabandhu Chair at UoP where contribution of Failler to development of Bangladeshi policy is highlighted.

(S8) Letter from Kenneth Racombo, Principal Secretary, Department of Blue Economy, Ministries of Fisheries and the Blue Economy, Victoria, Republic of Seychelles, 21.01.2021.

(S9) Letter from Claudia Stevenson, Project Team Leader, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C., USA, June 2020.

Submitting institution
University of Portsmouth
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

RAF Reaper drones have been widely deployed in combat missions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria since 2007. Their use has prompted media debate, public controversy, protests outside the bases involved, Parliamentary Questions, and an Inquiry by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Drones (APPGDrones) on ‘The UK’s Use of Armed Drones’.

Peter Lee was uniquely placed to provide independent advice to the Inquiry based on his detailed research with Reaper crews, and spoke strongly of the increased psychological and emotional jeopardy faced by crews undertaking remotely piloted air operations. He advocated, to both the Inquiry and the RAF, the urgency of introducing military ethics training to provide a moral framework and vocabulary to support the decision-making and mental wellbeing of Reaper crews as they made these life-or-death choices. The RAF acted on his advice and not only introduced bespoke professional ethics training into the initial induction and ongoing development of new and existing crew members of their Reaper squadrons – but asked Lee to develop and deliver this training to all Reaper personnel (around 400 staff - exact number not available for security reasons) in 2018 ( Impact 1).

His expert knowledge of military drones and his ‘unique insights into the human dimension’ of drone operation has seen his appointment as an Expert Advisor to APPGDrones, a position from which he advises on the wider societal use of drones ( Impact 2).

2. Underpinning research

Peter Lee served as a Royal Air Force chaplain (2001-08) before joining RAF College Cranwell (part of the University of Portsmouth since 2013) in 2008 where he taught ethics and air power studies. His experiences as a chaplain infused his research and caused him to reflect upon both the ethics of military interventions and, in particular, the ethical responsibilities of combatants in such interventions.

His initial research into the theme (2010-11) employed a qualitative, discourse analysis approach to better understand new and emerging ethical aspects of UK military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq in the twenty-first century, and was published as Blair’s Just War: Iraq and the Illusion of Morality (R1). Key findings: 1. A link between “British soldiers, sailors and airmen [being] expected, in war, to conduct themselves in accordance with the law and to uphold high ethical standards,” and, “… that they expect to be sent to fight for good reasons” ( R1, pp.163 ff.). 2. The ethics involved were complicated by the unconventional nature of the wars in these countries as there were usually “no uniforms to distinguish legitimate from illegitimate” enemy targets ( R1, p.166).

The application of the European Convention on Human Rights to British combat operations in June 2013, and assumptions about the status of combatants in modern war zones, led Lee to examine the emerging challenges to centuries of Just War ethics assumptions ( R2). His research highlighted the dilemma relating to the role of individual rights when making normative judgements about the morality of war and ethical conduct therein, and noted; “The use of the Reaper by the Royal Air Force on remote operations in the Afghanistan theatre adds a further layer of complexity to those ethical considerations” ( R2, p.30).

The RAF’s first Reaper drones (39 Squadron) flew their initial sortie from Creech Air Force Base (Nevada) in October 2007 and had since conducted surveillance and lethal missile and bomb strikes in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Unlike conventional airpower interventions, however, RAF Reaper operators are not exposed to battlefield dangers. Instead, they deliver lethal weapon strikes from physical safety thousands of miles away in the UK or US. This new modus operandi caused Lee to revisit the Just War theory of political theorist Jean Bethke Elshtain. He argued that while ethical conduct in military personnel remains framed by a complex interplay of social, cultural, military, psychological and legal factors, “ human lives, with all their attendant political, social, and religious complexities, should be the focus when military force is used, or even proposed, for political ends” ( R3, p.859).

This belief prompted Lee to request research access from the RAF (2014) to conduct an in-depth, qualitative questionnaire-based study with 25 RAF Reaper drone operators to explore – using thematic analysis – the role of personal ethics in their day-to-day operational practices (R4). The research provided new insight into the actions and identities of British Reaper drone operators and unravelled the previously unseen, complex and creative ethical dynamics at work in individuals who routinely make decisions and actions that have life or death consequences. Key finding: Some Reaper crew members regularly considered the ethical questions raised by their work but others either did not, lacked a suitable ethics vocabulary/framework, or were uncertain about the topic.

As previous research, extensive public engagement, and media debate had highlighted a limited public understanding of how Reaper drones operated and an absence of insight into the operators’ perspectives Lee made a further successful research access request to the RAF in 2015. The project ( RAF Reaper: 21st Century Drone Warfare from the Operators’ Perspective) saw Lee employ a qualitative, narrative life history approach, interviewing 90 Reaper operators to gain further insights into this way of modern warfare. This led to the publication of the life-narrative, personal-story-based book Reaper Force: The Inside Story of Britain’s Drone Wars (2018). Additional scholarly analysis followed in R5. Key research findings: 1. There was no bespoke ethics element in the training of RAF Reaper drone operators. They were not given any ethical guidance in their training to make decisions about who they would (or would not) target and kill in the course of conducting military operations. 2. A ‘distance paradox’ was identified, where vast physical distances between drone operators and targets are accompanied by high definition, screen-mediated intimate, immersive, emotional and psychological aspects of targeting and killing ( R5, pp.124-5). Lee concluded: “ The potential jeopardy of manned air operations is replaced by increased psychological and emotional jeopardy in remotely piloted air operations. This could be dangerous in an organisation that has, throughout its history, deliberately downplayed emotional and psychological risks and reactions […] Supporting and developing those remote operators is the next great challenge”.

3. References to the research

(R1) Lee, P. (2012). Blair’s Just War: Iraq and the Illusion of Morality. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

(R2) Lee, P. (2013). Rights, Wrongs and Drones: Remote Warfare, Ethics and the Challenge of Just War Reasoning, *Air Power Review,16,(*3), 30-49. https://www.raf.mod.uk/what-we-do/centre-for-air-and-space-power-studies/documents1/air-power-review-volume-16-no-3/

(R3) Lee, P. (2013). Scarred Souls, Weary Warriors and Military Intervention: The emergence of the subject of war in the writings of Jean Bethke Elshtain, Review of International Studies, 39 (4), 859-880. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210512000344

(R4) Lee, P. (2017). The Drone Operator and Identity: Exploring the Construction of Ethical Subjectivity in Drone Discourses. Critical Approaches to Discourse Analysis across Disciplines, 9 (2), 62-78. https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/fass/journals/cadaad/volume-9-2/

(R5) Lee, P. (2018). The Distance Paradox: Reaper, the Human Dimension of Remote Warfare, and Future Challenges for the RAF. Air Power Review, 21 (3), 106-131. https://www.raf.mod.uk/what-we-do/centre-for-air-and-space-power-studies/documents1/air-power-review-vol-21-no-3-raf100-special-edition/

The references above contain four peer-reviewed journal articles (R2, R3, R4 and R5) and one book (R1). Following peer-review, R1, R2 and R3 were adjudged as of at least 3* REF2021 quality.

4. Details of the impact

Introduction

Lee’s research has led to significant quality of life benefits for operators of Reaper aircraft, new understanding and awareness among senior RAF staff and managers of the psychological and emotional jeopardy faced by Reaper operators. It has influenced the wider policy debate around the military and civilian use of drones. The main pathway to impact saw Lee invited as an expert witness to the APPGDrones Inquiry into the UK’s Use of Armed Drones. His input into that Inquiry directly led to introducing new training practices for all UK Reaper Operators ( Impact 1). Lee has also influenced the broader policy debate around the use of drones through his advice to two APPG roundtable events on ‘The Future of Civilian Drones in the UK’ ( Impact 2).

How RAF Reaper drones ‘work’

An RAF Reaper crew has three members. A pilot who remotely flies the Reaper aircraft (known colloquially as a drone) and fires laser-guided 100-pound missiles and 500-pound bombs when authorised under specific legal frameworks/ Rules of Engagement. They are supported by a Sensor Operator who manually controls the missiles and bombs onto the designated targets (physical objects or human combatants), and a Mission Intelligence Coordinator who ensures that the correct person/people or object is being targeted. The pressures on such crew are immense. Defence Procurement International noted that 100,000 hours of flight time had been notched-up by the UK’s two drone squadrons (equating to more than 11 years of being airborne, or flying around the world 550 times) by December 2017. Moreover, drone strike statistics show that UK Reaper drone operators launched 985 Hellfire missiles or bombs against ISIS in Iraq and Syria between August 2014 and December 2020 ( S10).

Yet a crucial finding in Lee’s 2013-15 (R4) research was that more than 50% of all Reaper crew members he had interviewed – precise numbers not given for security reasons – did not have a clear ethics framework or vocabulary within which to make their life and death, kill or no-kill decisions. Decisions they would live with forever and which, inevitably, impacted detrimentally upon their wellbeing. The legal element was clear, but the ethical aspects had not been addressed. For example, Respondent 8 had no ethical consideration beyond ‘operating within the law’ ( R4, p.71), while Respondent B strived to ‘answer the personal question, “is what I am doing morally justified?”’ ( R4, p.71). Subsequent research ( R5) confirmed there was no bespoke Ethics element in the training of RAF Reaper crew members. Yet, the ability to align actions with core ethical values is important for the psychological wellbeing of the Reaper personnel: a strong sense of ethical purpose is a protective factor against moral injury ( R4, pp.122 ff.).

Impact 1: Influencing policy and practice: The APPGDrones Inquiry into the UK’s Use of Armed Drones.

In 2016 the APPGDrones initiated a Special Inquiry into the UK’s Use of Armed Drones as “… there is a political and ethical imperative for the Government to review and clarify its procedures for using drones and all the multi-national systems that back them …” (Michael Clarke, Chair of Inquiry Panel, http://appgdrones.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/APPG-Drones-Master-final-amendments.pdf, p.3). Evidence submitted to the Inquiry by Air Marshal Greg Bagwell’s in December 2016 raised concerns that UK Reaper pilots faced ‘some incredible moral dilemmas here’ given “The demand for these systems to operate is relentless, as with the demand to keep growing and training these crews. It’s fair to say we have had some crews who have left because they’d had enough” ( S1, p.13). On being informed of Lee’s research in this area, he was invited to submit written evidence to the Inquiry in March 2017 ( S2). His 15-page submission was delivered on 12 June 2017 and detailed the impact remote warfare had on Reaper crews and their partners – and strongly recommended four mitigating actions; (i) a specific ethics induction (“Remote warfare asks new questions of conventional war ethics and Reaper personnel  should, from the outset, fully understand the practical and ethical demands of their roles”) ( S3, p.13), (ii) individual workload, lifestyle and sustainability assessments, (iii) mandatory psychological support every 3-6 months, and (iv) recognition in the form of medals/awards for “meritorious service that has significant tactical or operational impact and  which incurs significant mental and social costs to the personnel and families involved” ( S3, p.12). At the same time, the report and recommendations – including the proposal “Upon joining the Reaper Force – and perhaps even at the recruitment/ enquiry stage – I recommend that all personnel should undergo an introduction to remote warfare ethics.” ( S3, p.13) - was also submitted to the Officer Commanding, RAF Reaper Force.

On 26 June 2017 the RAF not only accepted Lee’s recommendation to include mandatory professional ethics training for its operators but invited Lee to provide relevant materials to implement this bespoke ethics education programme in both RAF Reaper drone squadrons, “to ensure that personnel selected for Reaper are suitably prepared and understand the role for which they are volunteering” ( S4). Moreover, the RAF also highlighted they were in the process of exploring options for providing psychological support for operators at regular intervals based on what Lee had also advocated. They concluded by thanking Lee for “your work so far, it is of great importance to the Reaper Force […] The ethical dimension is critical and your input is greatly appreciated” ( S4).

The following year, Lee delivered in-person teaching on the ethics of remote (drone) warfare to 80% of RAF Reaper drone crew members (total around 400 personnel but specific number not provided for security reasons) on two training days: one at [text removed for publication] (February 2018), and the second at [text removed for publication] (June 2018). In line with the RAF request, he produced “an audio-visual presentation, relevant recommended reading, and a staff induction to enable current squadron personnel to teach this package in the future” ( S4). To ensure programme continuity, Lee employed a ‘train-the-trainer’ approach, and 6 members of each squadron were taught how to conduct ethics teaching for all new Reaper drone personnel.

The Reaper Force Commander subsequently highlighted (18 June 2018) the value of having a clear ethics framework to guide their work: “Understanding the ethical background, as well as the underlying principles, of the responsibilities and decisions these crew make is a key part of the work the Reaper Force undertakes daily. The ethics training that Dr Lee has delivered is clearly an essential part of helping my crews understand the work they consistently perform to such a high standard, and builds strongly into the Resilience [health and wellbeing] Package Reaper operators now undertake” ( S5).

Two Reaper personnel subsequently wrote independently to Lee describing the impact his ethical guidance had on them in the context of their Reaper Force working environment. A recently appointed sensor operator described how, following Lee’s ethics briefing, they “felt more informed and knowledgeable than ever before […] and could properly go home that night to answer some difficult questions him and his wife had” ( S6). Separately, a pilot wrote: “From my perspective… the work you have done on the Reaper Force has been enlightening and has significantly helped inform the wider community guiding the ethical principles not only of those actually conducting Reaper Operations but more significantly those commanding the Operations.” ( S7).

Impact 2: Influencing the wider policy debate on the use of drones.

In December 2018, Lee was invited to become an Expert Advisor to the APPGDrones in recognition of his “extensive research with the RAF Reaper Force and unique insights into the human dimension” ( S8). He extended his influence on the policy debate to drones' civilian use by offering advice at two APPGDrones Roundtable events in May 2019. Later that year he provided ‘expert support’ in the APPGDrones meeting with [text removed for publication] to discuss the implications of the Roundtables’ findings. In March 2020, the APPG wrote of his contribution:

“His extensive research with the RAF Reaper Force and unique insights into the human dimension of remote air warfare provided invaluable insights into the situation of UK personnel, and his broader research background in the ethics of military drone operations, with regard to the use of both piloted and autonomous drones continues to offer a crucial sounding board to inform the Group’s thinking […] Professor Lee was an invaluable partner, advising and assisting us in planning and chairing two Roundtable events on 8 and 22 May on ‘The Future of Civilian Drones in the UK’.” ( S9).

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

(S1) APPG on Drones. Oral evidence: APPG Inquiry into ‘The Use of Armed Drones: Working with Partners’, 07.12.2016. http://appgdrones.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/APPGDrones-Transcript-Evidence-Session-7.12.16.pdf

(S2) Email from [text removed for publication], APPG on Drones, 27.03.2017.

(S3) Peter Lee – Submission to the APPG on Drones, 12.06.2017. http://appgdrones.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Dr-Peter-Lee-Submission-to-APPG-Inquiry.pdf

(S4) Email from [text removed for publication], RAF Reaper Force HQ, 26.06.2017.

(S5) Letter from the RAF Reaper Force Commander, 18.06.2018.

(S6) Email from RAF Reaper Sensor Operator, 08.04.2020 ( redacted).

(S7) Email from RAF Reaper Pilot, 09.03.2020 ( redacted).

(S8) Letter from the APPG on Drones [text removed for publication], 04.12.2018.

(S9) Letter from the APPG on Drones [text removed for publication], 31.03.2020.

(S10) UK RAF Reaper Drone Strike Statistics. https://dronewars.net/uk-drone-strike-list-2/

Submitting institution
University of Portsmouth
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Standards are a critical feature of contemporary business operations yet, historically, there has been a lack of standards governing professional practise as an emerging field of Human Resource Management (HRM). Valerie Anderson’s research has also shown that HRM practitioners currently have a tendency to prioritise responsiveness over process harmonisation and standardisation. Her research argues that as a consequence there is a real need to ensure consistent, coherent and effective HR practices in organisations, and that these objectives can best be accomplished by working with organisations (national and international) to transform standards-setting in the HRM field.

Her research has been instrumental in the development of new professional HR standards at both the National (British Standards Institute [BSI] national standards for HRM, the Greater London Authority [GLA] Good Work Standard) and international (International Organization for Standardization [ISO] HR standards development) level (Impact 1). The growing adoption and implementation of such standards across the sector provide further testament to the reach and significance of the impacts resulting from Anderson’s research (Impact 2).

2. Underpinning research

Anderson’s contributions in the fields of standards, standardisation, HR strategy and practice, and the value of HR have made her a pre-eminent expert in applied research into standards in the HR field. Since her appointment at Portsmouth in 2003 Anderson has completed a range of research projects into features of standardisation funded by both the University Forum for Human Resource Development (UFHRD) and the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), including the value of learning (2007) and the development of online practice-based diagnostic tools (CIPD, 2011).

Anderson’s research adds to the evidence base that shows the importance of coherent HR standards for labour quality, skill development, and organisational performance ( R1, R2). Yet, many employing organisations do not yet recognise standards as the basis for excellence in HRM practices, her research finding that HRM practitioners choose to prioritise responsiveness over process harmonisation and standardisation ( R3).

Her principal contribution to standards development is documented in R1 (p.333), where she advocates employing a principles-based approach to standards development. In her view this demands a rejection of calls for a strengthening of audit and regulatory processes in order to identify and rectify areas of non-compliance or ‘token compliance’ (rules-based standards). Instead she proposes the identification of a smaller, core set of principles, ideas, or values that apply more broadly within a profession but which require professional judgement consistent with the intent and spirit of the standard (principles-based standards). Critically too, her research acknowledges that standards development is only the start, rather than the conclusion, of the HRD project, ‘Standards development ….represents an opportunity for those in the HRD field to advocate for learning and development as an important feature of work at individual, work-group, organisational, and societal levels’ ( R1, p.341). In R2, Anderson incorporated the research and authored a chapter on Learning and Development that contextualises the potential for learning and development within the framework of existing Standard provision.

The challenges presented by COVID-19 to organisations and workers have been evident and severe, testing the resilience of firms in all sectors, of all sizes. In an environment that is both increasingly uncertain and rapidly changing, employees are crucial to the resilience and recovery of organisations, particularly smaller organisations. Anderson’s research (for example R4) critiques assumptions prevalent in larger organisations that regulation and compliance is an appropriate basis for process effectiveness. This links to her earlier research ( R5) in which she outlines how contextual factors such as organisation size and sector are likely to be important influences on the experience of alignment – alignment ‘providing the opportunity for senior managers and HRD executives to share strategic knowledge and information, and for HRD activities and processes to be integrated “horizontally” to encourage, support and direct appropriate action ( R5, p.264).

In addressing approaches to standards formulation, both nationally and internationally, Anderson’s research challenges traditional, compliance and rules-based approach to standards-setting. In its place she advances the case for principles-based approaches to standards in the HRM field, seeing these as providing a more durable base for both organisational sustainability and individual health, safety and wellbeing.

3. References to the research

(R1) Anderson, V. (2017). HRD standards and standardization: where now for human resource development? Human Resource Development International, 20(4), 327-345. DOI: 10.1080/13678868.2017.1321872

(R2) Wong, W., Anderson. V. & Bond, H. (eds) (2019). Human capital management standards, London: Kogan Page. [Available upon request]

(R3) Short, H. , & Anderson, V . (2020). Standards formation and the implications for HRD. European Journal of Training and Development, 45(1), 74-94 *. * DOI: 10.1108/EJTD-02-2020-0019

(R4) Anderson, V., Garavan, T. & Sadler-Smith, E. (2014). Corporate social responsibility, sustainability, ethics and international human resource development. Human Resource Development International, 17(5), 497-498. DOI: 10.1080/13678868.2014.954187

(R5) Anderson, V. (2009). Desperately seeking alignment: reflections of senior line managers and HRD executives. Human Resource Development International, 12(3), 263-279. DOI: 10.1080/13678860902982009

The references above contain four peer-reviewed journal articles (R1, R3, R4 and R5) and one book (R2). Following peer-review, two articles (R1 and R3) were adjudged as of 2* REF2021 quality. Three articles (R1, R4 and R5) were published in CABS 2* journals.

4. Details of the impact

Anderson’s research has had a significant impact upon the development and adoption/implementation of national and international standards in HRM professional practice.

Impact 1: Development of new National and International Standards

In January 2014 the BSI invited Anderson to contribute her academic expertise in standards and standardisation to help the BSI Human Capital Standards (HCS) Technical committee formulate HRM practice standards. In recognition of her particular expertise Anderson was appointed to the important ‘drafting sub-committee’ charged with formulating the first HRM standard. Anderson’s research provided an initial and highly distinctive contribution to the articulation of the HRM standard as it was agreed by the sub-committee at the outset that a principles-based approach, rather than a traditional ‘rules-based’ approach, would be adopted. Her central role in establishing the overarching framework that would be employed for the development of the HRM standard BS 76000 - Valuing People in Organisations ( S1) is acknowledged by the other committee members. [Text removed for publication], for example, indicates that Anderson “made an immediate impact on the discussions concerning the creation of these standards. She was an influential member of the drafting committee for BS 76000 and led the group that developed BS PD 76006” ( S2). [Text removed for publication] states Anderson “was a key member of the drafting committee for the first UK principles-based people management standard – BS 76000 which set out the principles and requirements for organisations who valued their human capital and wished to demonstrate and evidence to their stakeholders that their people practices were both principled and sustainable” ( S3).

This work was expected to be forward-looking as standards, by their nature, need to exhibit longevity. HR standards of practice that provide the basis for ethical practise, values workers 'voice and discretion’ in all workplace contexts, CIPD. (2019), retrieved from https://www.cipd.co.uk/knowledge/strategy/hr/standards-factsheet) and ensures business continuity through multidisciplinary, multi-sectoral and multi-professional cooperation in the face of emerging social and economic pressures are extremely valuable management tools.

Nevertheless, Anderson’s early research into coaching and strategic alignment ( R5) cautioned against a ‘one size fits all’ approach in framing the standard. Her advocacy of the need for the ‘horizontal integration of HR activities and processes’ ( R5) was instrumental in ensuring BS 76000 provided a framework for “an organisation to create an individually-tailored management system, or to align existing systems, to realise the full value (actual or potential) that people provide to the organisation through their capabilities, knowledge, skills, networks, experience, behaviours and attitudes” ( S1, p.1). Similarly, her insights into the importance of dialogue/bartering between senior managers and HRD practitioners in influencing strategic thinking and practice within the organisation ( R5, p.275) found further and wider resonance in BS 76000: “By establishing a dialogue between the organisation, its people and stakeholders, mutual respect can be fostered to acknowledge the diverse contributions these bring to the organisation and to its shared values and social sustainability” ( S1, ibid).

Following publication of BS 76000 in July 2015, Anderson was appointed as chair of a BSI committee responsible for developing the Learning and Development guide (Published Document [ PD] 76006) underpinning BS 76000. The guide was intended to provide ‘useful tools to help tackle organisational learning and development more effectively’, BSI, (2017) retrieved from https://shop.bsigroup.com/ProductDetail?pid=000000000030350673), and drew heavily upon the principles-based approach espoused in Anderson’s research. [Text removed for publication] acknowledges that Anderson’s “ *leadership was crucial to the development of the content of BS76006 (Learning and Development)*”, content that was directly linked to “ her expertise and research-informed knowledge” and which “was recognised by other committee members and provided the basis from which to progress the construction of the standard quickly” ( S4). Anderson was also invited to scrutinise the drafts of BS 76005 (Valuing people through diversity and inclusion: Code of practice for organizations - the ‘Diversity and Inclusion standard’) and recommend revisions and content prior to its publication in April 2017. The media release preceding the release of BS 76005 explicitly acknowledges the principle-based approach advocated by Anderson - ‘ BS 76005 is informed by and supports the principles contained in BS 76000 Human resource - valuing people - management system - requirements and guidance, an existing standard which specifies high-level strategic requirements for a management system for valuing people’ BSI (2017). Retrieved from https://www.bsigroup.com/en-GB/about-bsi/media-centre/press-releases/2017/june/British-Standard-for-diversity-and-inclusion-launched/) - and its direct lineage to the HRM BS 76000 panel on which Anderson participated.

The centrality of Anderson to the development of BS 76000 and PD 76006 led to her being invited to support CIPD in helping develop the Mayor of London’s Good Work Standard (GWS) in February 2018. The brief was to draft a capital city standard that would enable London based organisations to (i) attract, recruit and retain the best skills and talent; (ii) reduce absences and sick leave; and (iii) maintain higher levels of employee engagement and motivation, outcomes which would manifest themselves in increased productivity, cost savings and reputational gain. Her role was to help develop the standard from ‘where it is now to where we would like it to be’ by creating an initial draft, leading an internal workshop with the Greater London Authority (GLA), producing and testing a second version with employers and other key stakeholders, and then developing a final version ( S6). The GWS was launched in July 2019, establishing a benchmark that the Mayor wanted every London employer to work towards and achieve. Aimed at employers of all sizes across public, private and voluntary sectors, the GWS Employer Guidance ( S7) produced by Anderson and the CIPD team is linked to an online self-assessment tool, enabling organisations to seek accreditation and recognition so that they might stand out as exemplary employers.

Anderson’s expertise in HR Standards and Standardisation also extends into the international arena following her appointment as Convenor of the Working Group (ISO/TC 260/WG 11) to develop the first International Standard for Learning and Development in Organizations on behalf of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Technical Committee (Human Resource Management) in October 2018. ‘ Valerie’s contribution was not just to lead the development of PD 76006 but to build a firm bridge between applied research in the domain and using that to guide practice by professionals. This has been recognised by the international committee of experts from nearly 30 countries in TC260 who approved the proposal from the UK to develop an international standard in L& D helmed by Valerie’ ( S3). This role enables Anderson to lead the process of agenda-setting and prioritisation in relation to the development of a global HR standard (due end 2021) and is further evidence of how her research is helping to shape the development of new professional HR standards at the international level.

IMPACT 2: Adoption/Implementation of Standards

The Standards that Anderson has helped formulate have impacted directly at organisational level as a consequence of adoption/implementation. This diffusion has taken place through three principal channels:

First, directly by organisations themselves. Organisations intent on adopting the BSI standards have purchased them with a view to adoption and certification. Reasons of data protection prevent BSI from releasing the names of purchasing organisations, but [text removed for publication] confirms that as at the REF census date BS 76000 Human Resource Valuing People had been purchased by [text removed for publication] organisations. BS 76005 Valuing People through Diversity and Inclusion had been purchased by [text removed for publication] organisations, and [text removed for publication] organisations had purchased BS PD 76006 - Guide to Learning and Development ( S5). Three examples, drawn from organisations that have adopted the standards in different parts of the UK, serve to illustrate the local-level impact and reach of such standards. [Text removed for publication] acknowledges that: “ the impact of these standards has not just been on the employed workforce … but reaches across our expanding volunteer workforce”, going on to state ‘ Adoption of these standards has impacted positively on our strategic and operational achievement’ and ‘ There is also a wider social impact of these standards through the expansion we have been able to undertake in developing and empowering volunteers, peer mentors and members of marginalised and overlooked communities’ ( S8). [Text removed for publication] (a medium sized enterprise [text removed for publication] specialising in HR support, employment law and employee relations), was the first to implement BS 76005, indicates that it has led to a ‘ direct business improvement effect’ as ‘the range of tasks and client services that we can offer has increased’ ( S9).

London-based organisations do not have to purchase the Good Work Standard, they can simply apply for accreditation using the GSW online self-evaluation tool. By end 2020 89 organisations had received accreditation as GWS employers, ranging in size from the Cripplegate Foundation (10 employees) and Jewellery Box Ltd (25), up to the London Fire Brigade (5,992) and the Metropolitan Police (41,862 employees and an annual budget of GBP3.24 billion.)

Second, through their widespread acceptance by HRM professional bodies. The CIPD, the professional body for human resource management and people management with a global membership of 150,000 HR practitioners, confirms that the national Standards developed (and the international Standards under development) with the input of Anderson are strategically important to the CIPD vision. [Text removed for publication], confirms ‘ Her work PD 76006 was ground-breaking in that it codified evidence-based L&D practices for organisational implementation’ and that these standards “ continue to gain steady adoption” with important impacts on “productivity, managerial capability and enhanced workforce welfare” ( S3).

Third, in facilitating the work of Standards Accreditation and Certification Organisations (SACO). SACO carry out formal, third party recognition and assessment processes of BSI accredited organisations that want independent verification to demonstrate (to their stake/shareholders) that they have met the requirements of any given Standard(s). One of these SACOs, the [text removed for publication], a market leading UK and international accreditation service provider with a portfolio covering more than 2500 companies), has carried out [text removed for publication] UK organisational HR based audits in sectors as varied as NHS Informatics, legal services, construction, education; security and criminal justice; surveyors, training provision; housing association, and charity. In the view of [text removed for publication] the work of Anderson is crucial as it serves to *“‘raise the bar’ in people management, drive quality and other performance improvements and helps client organisations to win customers, retain staff and build loyalty” ( S2) .

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

(S1) British Standard, 2015, BS 76000 - Valuing People in Organizations, British Standards Institute

(S2) Statement from [text removed for publication], 11/02/2020

(S3) Statement from [text removed for publication], 17/01/2020

(S4) Statement from [text removed for publication], 19/03/2020

(S5) Statement on sales figures from [text removed for publication], 19/01/2021

(S6) Statement from [text removed for publication], 23/03/2018

(S7) Good Work Standard, Accredited Employers Greater London Authority, 11/03/2020

(S8) Statement from [text removed for publication]

(S9) Statement from [text removed for publication]

Submitting institution
University of Portsmouth
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

The Isle of Wight does not have a fixed link to the mainland. This raises problems as, in the event of a major fire or chemical explosion, for example, additional resource from neighbouring authorities cannot be called upon in a timely manner (the ‘self-sufficiency’ effect). Equally, there is an additional cost of conducting business on and with the Isle of Wight due to transportation costs and the reduced opportunity to exploit economies of scale (the ‘island premium’ effect).

Adam Cox and his team at the University of Portsmouth were asked to estimate the costs associated with the effect of this geographical separation on the Island’s cost of providing public goods and services by the IOW council in August 2016. They found these costs were of the order of GBP381.69 per capita, and equated to about 26.0% of the island’s actual public expenditure.

The impact of their research was two-fold. First, it was used to directly occasion a change in central government policy. The Portsmouth research data proved instrumental in causing the government to revise its local authority funding model, introducing an ‘area cost’ adjustment in June 2019. Second, this revised funding model grants an extra GBP9 million in local authority funding to the IOW from 2020/21 onwards, thereby allowing the provision of improved public services to the island’s 141,606 inhabitants.

2. Underpinning research

Cox was appointed to the Economics Department in April 2010 and swiftly assumed responsibility for completing economic impact analyses and labour market studies for the Centre of Economic Analysis and Policy. He was subsequently joined by Leonard and Wohlschlegel, and the team produced applied research examining the levels of worklessness in Southampton, the likely economic impact of local regeneration schemes, and providing local economic assessments in Portsmouth. Regional economic modelling was successfully employed in the PERCEIVE project (2016-20), an EU project tasked with creating a better understanding of the channels through which European policies contribute to differing levels of identification with the European project across profoundly different European regions. On the strength of this acknowledged expertise in applied economics in August 2016 the Isle of Wight Council commissioned Adam Cox and this team to undertake research on potential factors occasioning extra costs due to the geographic consequence of being an island ( G1).

The Isle of Wight has a population of 141,606 (2019) and is located about five miles off the English coast. As there are no bridges connecting the island with the mainland, all traffic to and from the island is via ferries. Despite the significant costs in terms of time and money associated with such travel, and the ‘self-sufficiency’ and ‘island premium’ alluded to above, island status had not historically been recognised as a unique/important feature when determining the allocation of local government funding.

The IoW Council issued a tender in April 2016 in response to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government initiating a Fair Funding Review in February 2016. The objective of the review was to set “new baseline funding allocations for local authorities by delivering an up-to-date assessment of their relative needs and resources, using the best available evidence“. The tender was intended to provide underpinning evidence to support the IOW Council in its quest to be granted special status (as an island economy) in funding review. Portsmouth won the tender (May 2016) and the task placed before Cox and his team was to identify all factors that contributed to the increased costs consequent on being an island - and to then quantify them.

This research yielded three outputs, two reports delivered to the Council in January 2017 ( R1 and R2), and an academic journal article entitled ‘Quantifying the cost of foregone public goods spillovers on an island’ published in Regional Studies in 2019 ( R3).

In their report ( R1) the team highlighted the limited nature of public sector spillovers open to an island economy. In most instances local authorities (and residents within a local authority) can make use of facilities provided by neighbouring authorities, such as adult social care, leisure facilities, fire and rescue services, or waste management (‘spillover effects’). This increases the usage of these facilities and allows them to be provided at a more efficient scale. Due to this efficiency gain, local authorities (and the residents therein) will therefore be able to access a given level of public goods at a lower cost. For an island economy, the cost of travel between an island and the mainland makes it impossible (or costly) for the island’s residents (council) to use such facilities provided on the mainland, and so these spillovers are either eliminated (or reduced). The second report (R2) analysed in more detail the ‘self-sufficiency’ and ‘island premium’ effects. The conclusions of both these reports produced by Cox and his team were based upon the theoretical and empirical research findings that were contained in a publication submitted to Regional Studies in March 2017, subsequently published in the same journal following revision in 2019 ( R3).

The Regional Studies ( R3) publication estimated a panel model of local public expenditure using spatial lags in order to account for the public goods spillovers between neighbouring municipalities. A three-step process was employed. First, panel data from 205 municipalities in England, Scotland and Wales over a period of 10 years was used to estimate the impact of the municipalities’ own characteristics, their neighbouring municipalities’ characteristics and public expenditure, and the distance to these neighbouring municipalities on each municipality’s public expenditure. Second, the estimation results from the first step were used in order to predict how much more (or less) a geographically separated municipality such as the IoW would spend if it was not geographically separated (i.e.: it was attached to the mainland by normal road and rail connections) – the ‘island premium effect’. Third, the research team calculated how much more budget the IoW would need in order to enable its citizens to consume the same amount of private and public goods as if it was part of the mainland (the ‘forced self-sufficiency’ effect). This enabled the team to estimate that the overall social loss for the IoW resulting from being detached from the mainland was of the order of GBP381.69 per capita and “… we conclude that, according to our measure of social costs, the Isle of Wight’s costs of geographical separation from the mainland and, thus, lack of public goods spillover, amount to about 26.0% of its actual public expenditure“. ( R3, p.1178). This led them to estimate that, in monetary terms the Isle of Wight’s cost (in a reduced spillover sense) from being an island was equivalent to at least GBP6 million per year. As a consequence, Cox and his colleagues recommended that the island status of the Isle of Wight should be taken into consideration in the calculation of funding for local authority services by the Funding Review ( R3).

The team also stressed that “The proposed approach can yield valuable information for political decisions in a number of scenarios beyond the case of the Isle of Wight used for illustrative purposes in this publication” ( R3, p.1180). This observation subsequently attracted the attention of Rishi Sunak, the then Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government (DCLG), who invited Cox and his team to input directly into the funding mechanism review in July 2018 (see Section 5).

3. References to the research

(R1) Cox, A., Leonard, A., Wohlschlegel, A., & Bendoni, G. (2017). Impact of Physical Separation from the UK Mainland on Isle of Wight Public Service Delivery – Phase 1. Report, University of Portsmouth.

(R2) Cox, A., Leonard, A., Wohlschlegel, A., & Bendoni, G. (2017). Impact of Physical Separation from the UK Mainland on Isle of Wight Public Service Delivery – Phase 2. Report, University of Portsmouth.

(R3) Cox, A., Leonard, A., & Wohlschlegel, A. (2019). Quantifying the cost of foregone public goods spillovers on an island. Regional Studies, 53(8), 1170-1182. DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2018.1548762, listed in REF2.

The references above contain one peer-reviewed journal article (R3) and two policy reports (R1) and (R2). (R3) was published in CABS 3* journal and, following peer-review, adjudged as of 3* REF2021 quality.

Research grant funding

G1: Cox, A., Wohlschlegel, A., & Leonard, A. (2016). Impact of Physical Separation from the UK Mainland on Isle of Wight Public Service Delivery. Funded by the Isle of Wight Council, June 2016-January 2017 (GBP39,750).

4. Details of the impact

The impact of the research of Cox and team was two-fold. It not only occasioned a change in central government policy relating to the funding of local authorities (Impact 1), it also leads directly to improved welfare of IoW citizens through enhanced public spending on the island (Impact 2).

The comprehensive research completed by Cox and team ( R3) was used to frame an independent and objective assessment of the most significant factors and consequences resulting from separation, identifying a prioritised long-list of separation related issues that have a direct impact on the delivery of public services ( R1). This report ( R1) was produced to ‘better inform local and national strategy and decision-making’, and its principal findings provided the main substance of the IoW Council’s March 2018 submission to the Government’s Fair Funding Review. In their submission, the IoW Council explicitly referred to both reports ( R1 and R2) and the factors responsible for an island’s extra costs identified therein. It stressed that “recognition for [these factors] is the council’s most important outcome from this consultation”, and attached a copy of R2 to the submission letter, so as to allow DCLG to scrutinise the methodology and findings ( S1). The research ( R2) was further cited as evidence in the Island Infrastructure Investment Plan that was published by the Solent Local Enterprise Partnership in May 2018 ( S2). The purpose of this report was to ‘provide an identification of the future infrastructure needs of the Isle of Wight across a range of “economic infrastructure” categories. This is in the context of the need to support sustainable economic growth on the Isle of Wight, and having regard to national and local priorities’.

The research also informed the IoW MP Bob Seely’s political agenda, and empowered him to secure a Westminster Hall debate specifically on the topic of “ Local Government Funding: Isle of Wight” with the then Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Rishi Sunak, on 16 January 2018. In this debate Bob Seely stated that in a “ study by the University of Portsmouth, the extra cost of providing local government services on the Isle of Wight – the island factor – was estimated at GBP6.4 million per annum” and called for the Minister to “respect, accept and act on, this year and in the future, the costs outlined in the University of Portsmouth report”. In his response, Rishi Sunak acknowledged the study’s “thoughtful and detailed analysis”, which he promised “will not be analysis for analysis’ sake”, going on to state that the factors identified in the study *“are exactly what we need to hear about and consider in formulating a new funding formula” (*both quotes are taken from S3). Bob Seely also cited the UoP research findings in making the case for additional funding for the IOW for services (including healthcare and transport) during a debate with the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Islands on the Economy of UK Islands (10/5/2018, S3). And, following the Economies of Islands debate (May 2018), he further cited the research in a debate on Provision of Healthcare on English Islands (27/6/2018, S3).

Subsequent Parliamentary debates triggered by the research findings also led to the intervention of the Prime Minister - and a promise of an ‘island deal’. In the Prime Minister’s Update on 25 September 2019, the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, announced “ I thank my hon. Friend, who is a doughty and mighty campaigner for the Isle of Wight, as I have seen for myself. I thought that he was going to ask me about the island deal that we are going to do—I can assure him that we are, do not worry” ( S4). Bob Seely further cited the research at the Government debate Improving Healthcare: Isle of Wight on 1 October 2019, and again cited the research in relation to the annual additional costs of providing local government services on the island in his follow-up letter on the subject to the Prime Minister dated 23 October 2019 ( S4).

Concurrently, following the Westminster Hall debate of 16 January 2018, Cox and his team received an invitation to brief Rishi Sunak, the then Under-Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, on the wider research findings relating to public good spillovers. On 3 March 2018 Cox and his team, in conjunction with Bob Seely and leading representatives of the IoW Council, met Rishi Sunak at the Houses of Parliament (Portcullis House) for further detailed discussion of the research and its implications for adjusting the Government’s funding mechanism ( S5). At the conclusion of the meeting, the Under-Secretary requested the Portsmouth team brief his civil servant colleagues on the implications of their research for the UK local authority funding mechanism.

On 19 July 2018 the Portsmouth team met with the Analysis and Data Directorate for Local Economic Policy, the officials working on changes to the funding mechanism. In the meeting Cox and his team provided the Directorate representatives with a detailed overview of their research, responded to questions on the methodology and the results, and responded to the explicit question: “We’d value your views on this, and in particular our suggested measures of “accessibility” and “remoteness” in the context of the Isle of Wight.” ( S6).

In December 2018, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, published ‘ A Review of Local Authorities’ Relative Needs and Resources’. This explicitly acknowledged that; “some local authorities face unique pressures related to their geography; such as the costs associated with conducting business from isolated or peripheral communities (including islands and coastal areas).” It further went on to say that; “The Isle of Wight is a uniquely isolated and remote authority as it is only possible to reach a major town or city from households on the island via a ferry journey. The Government therefore considers it necessary to take account of the additional time taken by ferry transport in any measure of remoteness, including the time taken on board the ferry and at embarkation and disembarkation.” ( S7).

The subsequent June 2019 report ‘Review of Local Authorities’ Relative Needs and Resources: Area Cost Adjustment’ followed up by outlining the structure of area costs adjustments in terms of remoteness, specifically highlighting the Isle of Wight as a case in point ( S8) (Impact One). This new method of calculating local authority funding has been of particular benefit to the IoW, which received an increase of GBP9 million in the annual Local Authority budget 2020-2021, 60% (GBP5.5 million) greater than the national average increase for local authorities. Strikingly, this above average increase in the IoW local authority budget (GBP5.5 million) is almost exactly identical to the aggregate social costs of this geographic separation as computed by the Portsmouth team (GBP381.69 per capita across a population of 141,606 equates to GBP5.4 million). To place this ‘island premium’ in context, this funding increase exceeds the sums currently spent on providing Housing Services (GBP6.65 million), Fire and Rescue services (GBP6.9 million), or Public Health Services (GBP7.65 million) on the island each year. Moreover, this is not a one-off benefit, as the new method will be used for allocating annual local authority funding for the foreseeable future (Impact 2).

Furthermore, the changes the research has instigated has not only raised the IOW’s profile in the corridors of Westminster, but has also influenced the way the Government considers the Isle of Wight more broadly in funding terms. In August 2019, the Health Minister, Matthew Hancock, announced an extra GBP48 million funding for the Isle of Wight NHS Trust. In response Bob Seely stated ‘Last month in Parliament, Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, agreed with Bob that the Island faces additional challenges in providing healthcare because of its isolated status as an Island.’ and ‘When I became the Island’s MP, I promised that Government would listen to the Island more. I am delighted that this Government is beginning to do so’ ( S9).

Just over a year later, at the end of October 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold the IOW local authority was awarded an additional GBP11.4 million in general-purpose grant funding to accommodate council’s COVID-19 pressures, equivalent to GBP79.56 per capita. This placed the IoW in the top 25% in terms of allocation per capita, well above the mean of GBP44 per capita, despite the Island being one of the very few regions in the UK in the lowest Tier (1) at the time.

In a letter of support sent to the Portsmouth team, [text removed for publication] ‘ The Impact of Physical Separation from the UK Mainland on Isle of Wight Public Service Delivery has been the key piece of evidence [text removed for publication] the research undertaken by Dr Cox and his colleagues from the University of Portsmouth has given us the empirical evidence to make a much stronger case for the Island than we would have done. Realistically, it has been the building block on which we have made that case.’ ( S10) .

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

(S1) Letter from council to Department for Communities and Local Government (26/09/2016).

(S2) Solent LEP infrastructure report (05/2018).

(S3) Evidence of R1 & R2 used in Parliament debate (16/01/18, 10/05/18, 27/06/18).

(S4) Evidence of R1 & R2 used to engage Prime Minister Boris Johnson for an Island Deal (23/10/19).

(S5) Briefing note for the Meeting with Bob Seely MP and Rishi Sunak MP (03/03/18).

(S6) Meeting with members of Analysis and Data Directorate (06/07/18).

(S7) Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government’s “review of local authorities’ relative needs and resources” consultation document (12/18).

(S8) Needs and redistribution Area Cost Adjustment report (25/06/19).

(S9) Bob Seely MP welcomes additional funding (05/08/19).

(S10) Letter of support from [text removed for publication] to Cox and his team (25/10/20).

Submitting institution
University of Portsmouth
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Alexis Stenfors’ research investigates manipulative and collusive behaviour in the global fixed income, foreign exchange (FX) and money markets. The research underpinning this ICS has:

  • Been central in defining the legal boundaries in a [text removed for publication] FX price-fixing class action resulting in over [text removed for publication] million in settlements to date, and a landmark criminal prosecution of EURIBOR manipulation in the UK. This set a precedent for future potential prosecutions and trials by helping to define the line between legal (but perhaps unethical) and criminal wrongdoing by individuals working in the global fixed income, FX and money markets.

  • Provided the basis for legal arguments used in major financial litigation cases of LIBOR manipulation and collusion to reach significant financial settlements worth USD658 million with [text removed for publication] banks to date.

  • Defined new parameters and alerts, as well as developed new methodologies, within the world‘s leading surveillance system to detect, limit and prevent market manipulative and collusive behaviour to ensure the integrity of global financial markets.

2. Underpinning research

The global fixed income, FX and money markets are phenomenally large. For instance, the daily turnover in the global FX market is around USD6.6 trillion, and over USD300 trillion worth of financial contracts (bonds, loans, derivatives and mortgages) are linked to LIBOR – the world’s most widely used interest rate benchmark. Prices in these markets affect everybody: from multinational companies buying and selling products abroad to households taking out mortgages. They also influence the cost of government borrowing and central bank policymaking. Indeed, financial crises are typically synonymous with crises within these markets. However, being international, dominated by banks and overwhelmingly traded OTC, the markets are opaque and more susceptible to manipulation and abuse than stock markets. Some of these issues became front-page news in 2013 when the so-called ‘LIBOR and foreign exchange scandals’ were uncovered. This revealed a widespread culture of manipulation and collusive practices among banks in relation to markets and benchmarks linked to money and FX. The consequences of these discoveries includes fines and settlements amounting to billions of pounds, criminal proceedings and stricter regulation across the world. More robust compliance mechanisms in the form of internal controls, oversight and surveillance have also been put in place to spot and, hopefully, prevent such behaviour in the future. Put together, these changes have been introduced to ensure that market participants behave in an ethical manner, and that future issues are identified and dealt with promptly. Ultimately, the aim is to protect consumers, restore trust in financial institutions and safeguard the financial system as a whole.

Since 2014, Stenfors has published journal articles, book chapters and a book on manipulative and collusive behaviour in the global fixed income, currency and money markets. An underlying theme is that he emphasises the need to account for structures and social norms unique and central to OTC markets, but that are absent or significantly different in exchange-traded markets (e.g. stock markets). By doing so, Stenfors also reveals how manipulation and collusion in OTC markets have different structural and behavioural underpinnings – having significant implications for lawmakers, regulators, compliance officers and trade surveillance systems. The key findings can be summarised as follows:

  1. Stenfors’ research demonstrates how banks involved in the LIBOR (and EURIBOR) rate-setting process, and employees working for these, had means, opportunities and incentives to manipulate the benchmark. Moreover, it also shows that whereas the system was flawed in itself, it also created a side effect: deceptive behaviour could sometimes be unconscious and without harmful intent. Stenfors’ research findings help to distinguish appropriate and legitimate behaviour from what could be classified as unethical or even illegal conduct by employees at financial institutions. ( R1, R2, R3, R5).

  2. Social norms, unwritten rules and conventions are important in the global fixed income, FX and money markets – particularly in terms of how banks provide market liquidity to each other. This requires mutual trust, for without liquidity provision, the markets would dry up and ultimately harm the financial system as a whole. Communication and sharing of information are natural ways to restore and maintain trust. However, banks should also compete with each other. Stenfors’ research clarifies the grey zones and distinctions between information sharing that is convention-based (and ethical) and anti-competitive (and subject to antitrust law). ( R3, R4).

  3. The global fixed income, currency and money markets are decentralised and opaque. This makes manipulation, abuse and unethical behaviour difficult to detect. Technological developments and the increasing use of computer algorithms have resulted in new forms of manipulative strategies being implemented, which are even harder to spot by compliance officers and regulators. Using a vast high-frequency dataset with millisecond timestamps, Stenfors’ research shows how such strategies can be examined retrospectively. By doing so, he proposes new approaches and methodologies to identify and detect harmful trading behaviour. ( R6).

3. References to the research

(R1) Stenfors, A. (2014). LIBOR as a Keynesian beauty contest: a process of endogenous deception. Review of Political Economy, 26(3), 392–407. https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2014.917824

(R2) Stenfors, A. (2014). LIBOR deception and central bank forward (mis-)guidance: evidence from Norway during 2007–2011. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 32, 452–472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.07.006

(R3) Stenfors, A. (2017). Barometer of fear: an insider’s account of rogue trading and the greatest banking scandal in history. London: Zed Books. ISBN: 978-1-78360-928-4. In Finnish: Stenfors, A. (2018). Riskitekijä – Pankkimaailman pimeä puoli. Tampere: Vastapaino. ISBN: 978-951-768-621-1.

(R4) Stenfors, A. (2018). Bid-ask spread determination in the FX swap market: competition, collusion or a convention? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 54, 78–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.08.001

(R5) Stenfors, A. & Lindo, D. (2018). Libor 1986–2021: the making and unmaking of ‘the world's most important price’. Distinktion: Journal of Social Theory, 19(2), 172–190. https://doi.org/10.1080/1600910X.2018.1430599

(R6) Stenfors, A. & Susai, M. (2020). Spoofing and pinging in foreign exchange markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money. 70, 101278 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101278

The references above contain five peer-reviewed journal articles (R1, R2, R4, R5 and R6) and one book (R3). Three articles (R2, R4 and R6) were published in CABS 3* journals and, following peer-review, adjudged as of 3* REF2021 quality. One article (R1) was published in an ABDC B journal and, following peer-review, adjudged as of 2* REF2021 quality.

4. Details of the impact

The research underpinning this ICS has been influential in class actions, criminal prosecutions, financial litigation cases and surveillance systems around the world - to help define, detect and prevent manipulative and collusive behaviour in the global OTC markets. The route from publishing the research to engaging with key stakeholders has included an active dissemination agenda.

Stenfors’ research has attracted widespread interest. To raise general awareness of the problems and the need for change, Stenfors actively engaged with the media through op-eds and interviews. His research (particularly R1, R2 and R3) has been referred to in multi-page in-depth interviews in the Wall Street Journal (30.04.2016 / Circulation: 2,617,000), The Guardian 07.05.2017 / 134,000), The Times (09.05.2017 / 417,000) and Helsingin Sanomat (16.07.2017 / 365,000). Furthermore, he discussed and explained the issues on the radio (e.g. Newshour BBC World Service, Today Programme BBC Radio 4, Eye of the Storm BBC Radio 5 Live) and TV (e.g. CNBC, YLE Uutiset, BBC One Show).

To inform and educate more specialist audiences, Stenfors shared his research findings in leading industry magazines (e.g. Chartered Banker, FX Week) and gave talks and keynote speeches at major professional conferences. Keynotes include V-FI: Valuation of Financial Instruments Conference (London, June 2015; New York, October 2015 - the largest conference of its kind worldwide) ( S1) and Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) conferences (Frankfurt am Main, April 2018; London, November 2018; Dubai, February 2020). According to [text removed for publication] ACFE (with its 85,000 members, the world's largest anti-fraud organisation), Stenfors’ participation in the ACFE Fraud Conference Europe was “an integral part of making the event successful.” ( S2)

To contribute to changing practices and behaviour, Stenfors engaged more closely with key stakeholders through in-house seminars, workshops and conferences (such as Nasdaq, S3) and the Bar Association for Commerce, Finance & Industry ( S4). This activity typically resulted in follow-up conference calls, conversations and meetings with a range of key stakeholders including financial institutions, law firms, regulators, exchanges and electronic trading platform providers, as well as NGOs across the world. This engagement led to three key material impacts:

1. The research has been central in defining the legal boundaries in a [text removed for publication] FX price-fixing class action and a landmark criminal prosecution of EURIBOR manipulation in the UK

Between May 2016 and March 2017, his research findings on market structure, conventions and social norms ( R3, R4) were used by lawyers in the [text removed for publication] FX price-fixing class action. The action alleged that between [text removed for publication], banks (the defendants) conspired with each other to fix, raise, maintain, stabilise, control, or enhance unreasonably prices in the FX market. Stenfors assisted [text removed for publication] (acting on behalf of the claimants) to define the scope and limitations of the [text removed for publication] class action in terms of the jurisdictional and cross-border perspectives. He also assisted the law firm in the process of identifying the ways in which the market was susceptible to manipulation. [Text removed for publication] ( S5) To date, the case has resulted in over [text removed for publication] million (equivalent to over USD75 million) in settlements for [text removed for publication] institutions and investors.

Between December 2017 and June 2018, Stenfors’ research findings on market structure, conventions and social norms ( R1, R3, R5), and on the internal and external communication and signalling process between market participants ( R2, R4) were used in the world’s first criminal trial related to EURIBOR. EURIBOR is the Brussels-based version of LIBOR and used in financial instruments with a notional value of approximately EUR300 trillion. More specifically, the research was used to clarify the burden of guilt of bank employees involved in the EURIBOR rate-setting process. In the highly complex landmark trial (with senior bankers sentenced to more than 13 years in prison), the findings were crucial for legal arguments in securing the acquittal of a [text removed for publication] trader who was charged by the Serious Fraud Office with conspiracy to manipulate EURIBOR between [text removed for publication]. Legal arguments presented to the judge and jury at the Southwark Crown Court in London were prepared by [text removed for publication] ( S6) The impact is significant because the defendant received a fair and fact-based trial and was the only acquitted person among the accused. An identical logic was used, and the same outcome reached, in a similar trial in 2019. It not only set a precedent for future potential prosecutions and trials, but also helped to define the line between legal (but perhaps unethical) and criminal wrongdoing by individuals working in the global fixed income, FX and money markets. By doing so, it has clarified clearly to financial institutions their responsibilities to educate, supervise and monitor the behaviour of their employees.

2. The research has underpinned legal arguments in major financial litigation cases of LIBOR manipulation and collusion to reach significant financial settlements [text removed for publication]

Stenfors’ research findings on the LIBOR fixing mechanism ( R1, R3), the communication and signalling process in OTC markets ( R1, R4), and the competition and anti-trust aspects of LIBOR and its underlying interbank money market ( R2, R4) have been crucial in a multi-class lawsuit alleging a global conspiracy by some of the world’s largest banks to manipulate the LIBOR. The lawsuit brought in [text removed for publication] is one of the largest ever filed against financial institutions.

Stenfors was contacted by [text removed for publication] (the claimants) in April 2013, after having read an op-ed on LIBOR that he had written in the Financial Times. Since 2014, Stenfors’ research findings have influenced legal arguments and been used to define what kind of data (indicative prices, transactions, transcripts of conversations etc.) would be needed for the case, to interpret the data to determine if, how, when and by whom claimants have suffered as a result of the actions by the defendants and to quantify damages and appropriate financial settlements. [text removed for publication] ( S7). From 2016 to date, the [text removed for publication] Plaintiffs have reached proposed settlements exceeding USD68 million [text removed for publication].

Within the same multi-class lawsuit, the research has also been used by the [text removed for publication] Class. [Text removed for publication] ( S8). From 2015 to date, the [text removed for publication] Class has secured settlements totalling USD590 million [text removed for publication].

3. The research has defined new parameters and alerts, as well as developed new methodologies, within the world’s leading surveillance system to detect, limit and prevent market manipulative and collusive behaviour

Since 2015, there has been a strong push by regulators for market participants to put in place more robust and systematic OTC surveillance systems generally, and fixed income specifically. To this end, Stenfors was approached by [text removed for publication] to significantly improve their fixed income surveillance platform. [Text removed for publication] is the world’s leading market surveillance service, being used by stock exchanges, financial regulators and over [text removed for publication] banks worldwide to detect, and ultimately prevent, trading behaviours that may represent market abuse or other forms of irregular trading.

Between May 2019 and August 2020, Stenfors helped [text removed for publication] define and document risks, data inputs, metrics, logics and approaches in [text removed for publication] based on his research findings on manipulative and collusive practices ( R3, R4) and new forms of market manipulation ( R6). [Text removed for publication] ( S9).

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

(S1) V-FI Valuation of Financial Instruments Americas 2015 programme, New York, USA, 21-22.10.2015.

(S2) Written statement by [text removed for publication], 11.07.2018.

(S3) NASDAQ Surveillance Conference 2019 Agenda, Paris, France, 14-16.10.2019.

(S4) The Bar Association for Commerce, Finance and Industry Seminar programme, London, UK, 17.05.2017.

(S5) Statement by [text removed for publication], 28.2.2020 and accompanying settlement documents in the public domain.

(S6) Statement by [text removed for publication], 15.01.2020 and accompanying official documents on the EURIBOR trial.

(S7) Statement by [text removed for publication], 04.03.2020 and accompanying settlement documents in the public domain.

(S8) Statement by [text removed for publication], 29.07.2020 and accompanying settlement documents in the public domain.

(S9) Statement by [text removed for publication], 05.08.2020.

Submitting institution
University of Portsmouth
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Since 2014, the University of Portsmouth (UoP) has collaborated with CARE International UK and their online microfinance platform (Lendwithcare - LWC) to research their communities of borrowers and lenders. The direct impact of that collaboration has been two-fold.

First, UoP research findings into who donates, in particular the projects donors/lenders favour donating to have been utilised by LWC in completing a major re-design of their online platform. This has seen the number of active LWC lenders grow from 20,794 (2014) to 66,002 (2021), with the investor portfolio growing from GBP5.5m to over GBP31.5m over the same period. As a consequence of this expansion, more than 120,000 new loans have been made to low-income entrepreneurs in developing countries [Impact Strand 1].

Second, field research completed with LWC partner microfinance institutions (MFIs) saw these MFIs introduce a number of important operational changes as a result of the UoP research. These changes impacted upon social welfare through enhanced social inclusion (Ecuador - rebalancing the loan portfolio in favour of more marginalised groups), service change (Pakistan - streamlined loan selection processes for existing borrowers), and improved service provision to marginalised women (Zimbabwe - refined loan supervision processes and client training procedures) [Impact Strand 2].

An unexpected and indirect consequence of the success of the collaboration was the recognition of the ‘higher cost-effectiveness’ of the UoP-LWC project compared to other impact assessments commissioned by CARE International from external consultants. This not only convinced LWC to increase the time and budget allocated to their impact activities with UoP but will “most likely privilege [CARE International] collaborations with academic institutions in the future as a direct result” ( S3).

2. Underpinning research

Microfinance is a well-established development instrument that provides financial services and training to low-income populations to lift themselves out of poverty. LWC is a microfinance crowdfunding platform created in 2010 by CARE International UK, a leading international development NGO working in over 100 countries. The funds raised through the platform are then distributed, with the aid of local microfinance institutions (MFIs), to borrowers across eleven developing countries. Research undertaken by the UoP on the effectiveness of microcredit programmes supported by LWC directly responds to increased calls for accountability within the development sector. The team from UoP designed a comprehensive evaluation that considered both sides of LWC’s microfinance programme - the lenders (Impact Strand 1) and the borrowers (Impact Strand 2).

Impact Strand 1 firstly focussed on better understanding the preferences and behaviours of LWCs community of lenders. Lender profiles are displayed on the LWC platform, and a link is provided to all the projects they have funded (a photo and lender descriptor are optional). As lenders do not receive interest on their loans, they can best be viewed as ‘pro-social donors’, and their behaviour can be analysed through the lens of social image theory. The research disclosed that lenders who took advantage of the opportunity to add personal details (photo and descriptor) were much more likely to make a larger number of smaller value loans than those who did not. The research also found that gender, age and money donated to other charitable causes resulted in significant variations in observed donor behaviour. Somewhat surprisingly, religiosity, social capital and income levels – found to be highly significant in other empirical studies - were found to have little to no explanatory power in this particular context. The research concluded that organisations such as LWC should consider encouraging “self-presentation and increase levels of visibility in the donation process. This could be achieved by making public profiles a more prominent feature on their websites and encouraging more funders to complete them” ( R1, p.53).

Impact Strand 1 also investigated how funding pitches from borrowers are presented on the platform - and how this impacts upon lender decisions, research that was published in the European Journal of Operational Research ( R2). The study found that the most attractive attribute to funders was activity type (funders preferring to invest primarily in farming projects, food stalls followed by sewing/tailoring enterprises and then ‘green’ loans). Gender of the borrower and the loan size requested were also important determinants (albeit less so than activity type), while country and number of dependents exerted only a moderate influence on lending patterns. Age of borrower was of minimal significance. The research suggested that these findings could help website design with a view to increasing the contributions derived from LWC crowdfunding campaigns ( R2, p.709).

Impact Strand 2 switched focus to borrowers and examined the degree to which loan recipients under the LWC programme had seen visible improvements in their wellbeing. Three LWC MFI partners with differing size portfolios were selected; Akhuwat Islamic Microfinance (AIM) in Pakistan (813,525 borrowers), Fundación FACES in Ecuador (19,978 borrowers) and Thrive in Zimbabwe (3,384 borrowers). The research involved the completion of three waves of household surveys in Pakistan, two household surveys in Zimbabwe, and a baseline survey in Ecuador. The findings were distributed through academic outputs ( R3, R4) and practitioner-friendly reports ( R5, R6). In each instance, the surveys disclosed a wide heterogeneity in the MFI client base.

In the case of Pakistan, the longitudinal analysis found that while prior management experience was positively associated with business growth, no significant association was found between business growth (and also employment creation) and gender, poverty levels and prior credit experience. Importantly, as would be hoped, poverty levels also reduced among AIM borrowers compared to the hundred-strong control group who had not received MFI loans ( R3). It was complemented by case study research which delved more deeply into the simple, yet innovative, approach based on a practical and financially sustainable operating model that had enabled AIM to become the largest non-bank Islamic micro-finance provider in the world ( R4). These academic outputs were supplemented by the production of practitioner-friendly reports which, among other things, highlighted a sharp divide in the impact of loan provision between rural and urban borrowers ( case of Ecuador, see R5) and the important challenges posed by the economic and cash crisis to both clients and MFI ( case of Zimbabwe, see R6). The identification and exploration of these differences allowed the institutions to improve their knowledge of their clients and re-evaluate their targeting criteria, prompting changes in the internal processes of the MFIs as further described below.

3. References to the research

(R1) Cox, J., Nguyen, T., Thorpe, A., Ishizaka, A., Chakhar, S., & Meech, L. (2018). Being seen to care: The relationship between self-presentation and contributions to online pro-social crowdfunding campaigns. Computers in Human Behavior, 83, 45-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2018.01.014

(R2) Chakhar, S., Ishizaka, A., Thorpe, A., Cox, J., Nguyen, T., & Ford, L. (2020). Calculating the relative importance of condition attributes based on the characteristics of decision rules and attribute reducts: Application to crowdfunding. European Journal of Operational Research, 286(2), 689-712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.03.039

(R3) Afonso, J.S., Cox, J. & Thorpe, A. (2020). Business Performance and Heterogeneity among Islamic Microfinance Clients: Evidence from Pakistan, Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2020-03, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group. http://repec.port.ac.uk/EconFinance/PBSEconFin_2020_03.pdf

(R4) Afonso, J.S. & Khan, A.A. (2019). Islamic Microfinance: exploring the experience of Akhuwat in promoting Qard Hasan in Pakistan. In O’Connor, M. and J.S. Afonso (Eds), Emerging Challenges and Innovations in Microfinance and Financial Inclusion. London: Palgrave McMillan. ISBN 978-3-030-05260-7.

(R5) Afonso, J.S. (January 2018). Lendwithcare Impact Assessment - Fundación de Apoyo Comunitario y Social del Ecuador (FACES). Baseline Report, University of Portsmouth. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xzB9whsYcZi2Y9Tw736S5Y9WCyr9buvX/view?usp=sharing

(R6) Afonso, J.S. (March 2018). Lendwithcare Assessment Project – Thrive Report, University of Portsmouth. https://www.careevaluations.org/wp-content/uploads/LWC-Assessment-Project-THRIVE-Report-March-2018.pdf

The references above contain two peer-reviewed journal articles (R1 and R2), one book chapter (R4), one working paper (R3) and two policy reports (R5 and R6). One article (R2) was published in CABS 4* journal and, following peer-review, adjudged as of 4* REF2021 quality. One article (R1) was published in CABS 3* journal and, following peer-review, adjudged as of 3* REF2021 quality. One article (R4) was, following peer-review, adjudged as of 2* REF2021 quality.

4. Details of the impact

The UoP-LWC linkage dates to January 2014 when Thorpe encouraged his second-year International Development Studies students to launch a series of fund-raising activities to sponsor projects advertised on the LWC platform. In May 2014 he followed up on this by writing to the LWC team expressing his interest in “What factors determine whether (and the extent to which) individuals are prepared to engage with what is, in essence, a developmental crowdfunding scheme like yours? At Portsmouth, we believe the issue of individual engagement in crowdfunding and indeed, within wider citizen science initiatives, is currently badly under-researched, and we are keen to remedy this.”

LWC responded promptly and, in agreeing with his views, requested a meeting to discuss matters further. Following a meeting in London in early June, an informal collaborative relationship was established. LWC provided the UoP team with comprehensive data scraped from the LWC platform (Impact Strand 1) and reported they would ‘think about what specific questions we would like to get the answers to.’ By late June LWC confirmed two questions they were particularly interested in were 'what are the factors that affect the amount of money and/or numbers of projects supported by lenders?' and ‘'are certain types of entrepreneur significantly more/less likely to be funded by certain types of lender?' The questions that underpinned the research were subsequently published ( R1, R2). In parallel, LWC requested support from UoP as independent experts in evaluating the effectiveness of their MFI lending programme in the field (Impact Strand 2).

Impact 1: Research-led changes in Practice - Growing the Lender Base

Findings from Impact Strand 1 improved LWC’s understanding of how to attract new lenders and how to better represent the profiles of borrowers appearing on the website ( R1, R2). The research team made several specific recommendations regarding increasing lender visibility and placing greater emphasis on the community of lenders and their public profiles ( R1), and highlighting lender preferences based on characteristics such as activity type, borrower type and gender ( R2). The recommendations demonstrated how LWC could generate more interest among lenders by improving particular aspects of borrower funding pitches, and increasing the promotional efforts directed towards different groups of potential lenders.

In 2015, LWC employed preliminary recommendations from these studies in a major redesign of their platform. The recommendations emerging from Impact Strand 1 informed the design of several elements of the new platform, including the lender community and visibility of public profiles. The new platform also presented borrower funding pitches in new ways, placing greater emphasis on the borrower characteristics highlighted by the UoP research. The research, notably on lender characteristics and observed donor behaviour was not only influential in helping LWC more effectively target their annual fund-raising campaigns to potential donor groupings. Findings from Impact Strand 2 were also used to give greater authority to these campaigns (i.e., UoP research shows LWC “microloans are proven to empower women and lift them out of poverty” ( S1). LWC considers the redesign as having played a significant role in increasing the number of lenders active on the platform, which increased from 20,794 at the end of 2014 to an aggregate 66,002 (up 217%) in January 2021. Over the same period, the aggregate loan capital issued via the platform increased from GBP5.5m to GBP31.5m, resulting in more than 120,000 additional loans. According to LWC, “the redesign of our website following recommendations from the University of Portsmouth has played a major role in achieving these increases, particularly as a result of demonstrating impact and providing credible evidence to lenders”. Furthermore, “the research was so valuable that we highlighted several of the findings directly on the new website” ( S2, S3).

Impact 2: Improving Social Welfare across Borrower Communities

As the underlying aim of LWC is to improve the lives of poor people through promoting financial inclusion, the LWC team wanted to understand if indeed this was the case, and if so, how was it being achieved. The UoP team were asked to supply technical help and research expertise. Over time this grew to training local interviewers, preparing training manuals in English and Spanish, monitoring the fieldwork, analysing the data, and producing both academic outputs ( R3, R4) and practitioner friendly reports ( R5, R6). The research team also presented at several workshops and events with LWC and their MFI partner institutions, most notably a workshop in London in March 2018 attended by representatives from partners in Ecuador, Peru, Zambia, Malawi, Palestinian Territories, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines (S4). Participation in events such as these, not only allowed the research team to disseminate their findings to LWC and their MFI partners but also offered an opportunity to make policy recommendations relating to the way in which impact is assessed.

AIM in Pakistan had been selected as the first field partner to participate in the evaluation, and a first visit was made by the LWC team and UoP staff in April/May 2015 to survey 500 loan recipients (and 100 in a control group) in four branches based around Lahore. A follow-up visit took place in 2017 (2019 cancelled due to COVID-19). Evaluations also commenced in Zimbabwe (Thrive) in 2016 and 2017, and Ecuador (Fundación FACES) in 2019, the latter a direct consequence of a FACES request following the March 2018 London workshop.

Central to this evaluation process has been the provision of regular outputs (R3, R5 and R6). These reports serve two purposes. First, they provide LWC with robust evidence from the field that can be shared with partners and prospective partners. According to Ajaz Khan; “the quality and independence of the work [was] praised by different partners and stakeholders (internal and external)” ( S3). Second, and more critically, they also offer the local MFI relevant and timely information on their clients that is then used to inform its management decisions and improve their microcredit programme. These reports have had particular impacts in three specific areas:

  1. **Streamlined loan selection processes for existing borrowers (Pakistan)

The 2020 Pakistan report ( R3) gave AIM management an understanding of the requirements and potential benefits of developing internal social performance assessment mechanisms, convincing them to introduce such mechanisms when they updated their updated management information systems. Furthermore, a number of the questions employed in the UoP/LWC impact evaluation survey have been incorporated as part of Akhuwat’s standard client questionnaires ( S5). The improved and streamlined selection processes has enhanced the positive welfare impact resulting not only from LWC funded loans, but also all other current and future AIM borrowers. “We expect the consequences of embedding new internal social performance mechanisms, as advocated by Lendwithcare and the University of Portsmouth in their report, will ultimately feed through to increase the majority of our 800,000+ borrowers’ welfare and wellbeing” ( S5).

  1. **Refined loan supervision processes and client training procedures (Zimbabwe)

The 2018 Zimbabwe report ( R6) recommended that Thrive should review its targeting processes carefully as evidence indicated that the MFI was not reaching the poorer segments of female entrepreneurs. It also highlighted that the compulsory training offered by the MFI was necessary, but was too lengthy. In response Thrive made the previously optional training programme mandatory, but shortened its length (the initial 8 sessions were reduced to 3, thereby shortening the loan application time from approximately 1 month to 10 days). In addition, a social performance officer was appointed to; ensure more effective targeting, systematically monitor progress and, help clients to work more effectively with their loans ( S3).

  1. Rebalancing the loan portfolio in favour of more marginalised groups (Ecuador)

The 2020 Ecuador report found evidence that female entrepreneurs, and those based in rural locations and/or engaged in informal business activities, were significantly less likely to be educated and more likely to be living in poverty than other groups ( R5, p.36). These findings led the MFI partner FACES to review their loan portfolio with a view to rebalancing in favour of these more marginalised groups. As a result, the organisation is better able to address their aims as a social development organisation and to “provide better services to the most relevant groups of borrowers” ( S6).

One unanticipated outcome of the collaboration saw “the quality and independence of the work developed within the project [which has been] praised by different partners and stakeholders (both internal and external)” ( S3). Moreover, the ‘higher cost-effectiveness of the UoP-LWC project’ compared to other impact assessments commissioned by CARE International from external consultants led LWC “to increase the time and budget dedicated to impact assessment activities.” The monies directed to this line of work was substantially increased, LWC contributing GBP60,000 to fund a Postdoctoral position at UoP (Afonso), as well providing GBP30,000 for a doctoral bursary oriented to examining the effectiveness of microfinance evaluation processes. In addition, one of LWC team members received external training on evaluation, and her job description was broadened to “include specific impact and social performance related goals” ( S3). In addition, moving forward, CARE International report “we will most likely privilege collaborations with academic institutions in the future as a direct result of our experiences with the University of Portsmouth.”

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

(S1) Jones, R. (2017) Ethical gift vouchers with the power to keep on giving and giving …, The Guardian, 2 December. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/dec/02/ethical-gift-vouchers-lendwithcare-microloans-empower-women

(S2) LWC (2017) Assessing the impact of microfinance, 7 December and LWC (2018) How your loans make a difference, 30 October.

(S3) Letter from Dr Ajaz Ahmed Khan, Senior Microfinance Advisor, CARE International UK, 1 February 2021.

(S4) The Lendwithcare Workshop, 19-22 March 2018, Programme.

(S5) Letter from Shahzad Akram, Chief Credit Officer, Akhuwat Islamic Microfinance, 3 February 2021.

(S6) Letter from Maria Elena Bravo L., Chief of Social Responsibility, Fundación FACES, 1 February 2021.

Submitting institution
University of Portsmouth
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Following our ‘Buy Online Return in Store’ project and extensive engagement with industry, loss managers in major UK multiple retailers have reported that our findings have been used to influence senior management to implement changes in practice and processes. They have seen improved profitability through greater visibility of hidden costs of online returns and improved returns management through adoption of lean management and circular economy approaches. Further, retailers have moved toward integrating returns management into the wider strategic planning processes through implementing cross-functional teams, and changing returns reporting practices and returns policies. Based on our work, the international industry group ECR Retail Loss has changed its research focus and programme to emphasise e-commerce returns and has commissioned further work based on our findings.

Data scientists at one international clothing retailer have also used our cost model as a basis for the development of a new set of calculations for the cost of returns, identifying potential savings in excess of GBP10million. Total savings across members of ECR Retail Loss, a global membership organisation of major retailers, are estimated at GBP55 million in the two years following the report.

2. Underpinning research

Many traditional retailers now offer the shopper an omni-channel experience. Products purchased online may be returned by multiple channels e.g. post, courier or to a physical store. However, offering this customer choice comes at a cost to the retailer with the increased complexities this brings to processes, IT systems, accounting systems and logistics, to name just a few. Research by Jack and her team investigated the “buy online, return to store” scenario to identify the true cost of returns. The work has been timely, as online returns in the UK are predicted to increase by 27.3% in the next five years and hit a total of GBP5.6 billion by 2023, according to analysts GlobalData. In 2020, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, this has become a major problem for retailers with more shopping online, and more returns made through costlier routes as stores have been closed.

Jack is recognised internationally as a research-consultant, writer and speaker on accounting and fraud in food supply chains. She has led projects for the Chartered Association of Management Accountants and the Food Standards Agency, as well as for commercial and non-governmental organisations in the industry. This brought her work to the attention of the ECR Retail Loss group in 2014, beginning a collaboration which is still ongoing. With Frei and Krzyzaniak, she brought expertise on costing and sustainable supply chains to bear on issues of interest to ECR Retail Loss and has been able to build on her theoretical interests in how the way in which accounting is communicated can change business practices.

The research on reverse logistics was developed with ECR Retail Loss (formerly the ECR Community Shrink and On Shelf Availability Group) ( G1), globally recognised in the industry as the leading “think tank” on retail loss. Their e-commerce working group was established in 2015, to examine all aspects of e-commerce loss, with an initial focus on the cost of returns. The combined turnover of 20+ organisations represented in this working group exceeds GBP400 billion, and includes retailers such as Amazon, Adidas, Bol.com, John Lewis, Tesco, M&S and TJX Europe. Jack and her team were chosen on the merits of their proposal and the team’s expertise in reverse supply chain management ( R3 and R5).

The project consisted of four in-depth studies of UK multiple retailers involving interviews, site visits and documentary evidence; 17 telephone interviews with loss managers in other retail firms and a desk study of 100 returns policies and over 20 industry reports. The qualitative case-study based research builds a rich and detailed set of data from which Jack and her team were able to develop process maps (Frei and Krzyzaniak), a costing model (Jack), proposals for a lean returns management process (Jack) and circular economy strategies (Frei) ( R1 and R2). Jack and her team presented the interim results to the ECR community at their regular meetings to “triangulate” findings and strengthen their applicability across the retail sector.

Key findings were that multiple returns paths are offered to customers, bringing complexity to businesses and additional costs. The “route” of returns within the business is complex, depending on product type, value, where it is returned, the condition of the returned product (e.g. if it is damaged) and this builds significant costs and inefficiencies into current returns processes. One reason for this is that online businesses have generally been “bolted onto” existing bricks and mortar businesses, with system gaps being patched up. The “patchwork quilt” of systems is inefficient and increases vulnerability, but businesses have been unable to make a case for new, harmonised systems. As a result, few businesses currently collect or process data to give an accurate cost of returns, let alone cost of returns for their online business. It is estimated that the rate of returns for online sales is 22% on average, compared with 8% for bricks and mortar sales, and can be higher than 50% for luxury goods and holiday purchases. Their research showed that the cost of returns averaged around GBP7-12 per returned item. A very small reduction in the rate of returns can achieve increases in net profits of 100-200 basis points.

Their recommendations fall into three key areas that link directly to impact. First, they recommended that their model for the cost of returns should be implemented to improve profitability through greater visibility of hidden costs of online returns. The model can be used to demonstrate to senior management the need to concentrate on reducing the rate of return as the most effective means of enhancing profit. This included the finding that return to store was the most cost-effective route, and that returns should be seen as a profit, not a cost centre. The model was shown to provide better data capture and an improved analysis of cost of returns. The research also recommended improved communications with customers to prevent returns and the removal of transaction steps from the returns management process to reduce costs ( R2).

Second, the team recommended the adoption of lean management and circular economy approaches to improve returns management. Both concepts are timely and relevant in the context of the retail sector because of their potential for improved profitability ( R4).

Third, Jack and team identified the need for implementing cross-functional teams and executive manager oversight of the returns process as best practice for the integration of returns into strategic planning. Loss prevention teams need to gain support from executive officers for changes in return policies and practices ( R1).

3. References to the research

(R1) Jack, L., Frei, R. and Krzyzaniak, S.A. (2019). Buy online return in store: The Challenges & Opportunities of Product Returns in a Multichannel Environment. London: ECR Retail Loss. https://institutducommerce.org/medias/publications/Final Report on Online Returns.pdf

(R2) Frei, R., Jack, L., and Krzyzaniak, S. A. (2020). Sustainable reverse supply chains and circular economy in multichannel retail returns. Business Strategy and the Environment https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.2479

(R3 ) Frei, R., Bines, A., Lothian, I., and Jack, L. (2017). Understanding reverse supply chains. International Journal of Supply Chain Management and Operations Resilience, 2(3), 246-266. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSCOR.2016.082029

(R4) Frei, R., Jack, L. and Brown, S. (2020). Product returns: a growing problem for business, society and environment, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 40(10), 1613-1621. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOPM-02-2020-0083

(R5) El Baz, J., Frei, R., and Laguir, I. (2018). Reverse supply chain practices in developing countries: the case of Morocco. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 29(1), 198-216. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMTM-04-2017-0068

(G1) Jack, L., and Frei, R. Buy online, collect in store: The benefits, barriers and performance metrics of reverse supply chains. Funded by ECR Community, November 2016-May 2018 (GBP28,201).

The references above contain four peer-reviewed journal articles (R2, R3, R4 and R5) and one policy report (R1). Two articles (R4 and R3) were published in CABS 4* and 3* journals, respectively, and, following per-review, adjudged as of 2* or better REF2021 quality. R1 was, following peer-review, adjudged as of 2* REF2021 quality.

4. Details of the impact

The online returns research started in early 2017 with data collection finished by October 2017. Further work was then undertaken to develop the cost model and validate it with stakeholders through workshops organised by ECR. The report, together with its recommendations, was published online in January 2019 and has since been downloaded 59 times including by 19 retailers with annual turnovers between GBP10 million and GBP10 billion from UK, Europe, Russia and the USA, six manufacturers and industry associations from Europe and the USA and 16 solution providers from the UK and Europe. ECR Retail Loss launched a new website in late summer 2020, and an open access version of the report has been made available ( R1).

Building engagement with the research through industry events and media

ECR Retail Loss have run several events to help their members implement the recommendations from the research. The events included a first Webinar on 12 February 2019 ( S1) hosted by ECR Retail Loss, translating the research insights into strategic implications for businesses. The webinar included a representative of [text removed for publication] who elaborated upon how the report was used by senior management to alter their returns management policy so as to focus on the profitability of returns ( S1). In all, 61 people registered for the Webinar from Europe, the USA, Russia, Brazil, Australia and Kazakhstan. Feedback included the following comment from the USA, [text removed for publication]: “Very interesting work that the team has assembled – including highlighting the cost of the CREDIT CARD transaction as a cost of the return; I have not heard that in any discussion including Walmart, US Industry Groups or other areas (truly insightful)” ( S2).

Loss Prevention Magazine (28 March 2019) ran a feature on the back of the report. The team also disseminated the results through an article in The Conversation (21 January 2019), which achieved 61,500 hits and 47 reprints, translated into Indonesian and Romanian ( S3). Jack has been invited to present the work on this project to: the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants Irish Spring Seminar in Cork on 6 March 2020; in an international online seminar for AICPA/CIMA Ireland on 19 November 2020 for practising accountants along with the lead accountant for returns in a major online retailer (annual turnover GBP80 million in Ireland); and a webinar with the University of Sheffield on reverse logistics recorded by AICPA-CIMA in Summer 2020.

Following the first webinar on 12 February 2019, ECR Retail Loss also organised a workshop for a wider stakeholder group on 2 April 2019 in London that led to a selected group of retailers requesting an additional workshop on 25 April 2019 to discuss the implementation of the cost of returns model specifically. 22 representatives from 14 major UK, European and North American retailers attended, along with ECR Community grant providers and industry representatives, with 75% saying that the event met or exceeded their expectations (see S2).

Improved profitability through greater visibility of hidden costs of online returns

According to Colin Peacock, Strategy Coordinator of ECR Retail Loss, the true cost of returns model “has delivered an estimated GBP55 million to the bottom line profitsto their members in the two years following the publication of the report in January 2019. He further states that Jack’s research “remains one of the most important pieces of research we have undertaken, and its relevance and importance is now more relevant than ever with the growth of e-commerce.” ( S4).

In addition to the workshops mentioned earlier, ECR Retail Loss organised another workshop for its members in 15 July 2019 based on the report ( R1). An important part of the impact strategy was to provide a space in which retailers could share experiences of similar and growing issues with online returns, which fed into reviews of returns policies across the sector in 2019/20 ( S4) . One major retailer later responded to say that the findings from the report and workshop had made a significant impact on their review and initiatives for managing returns ( S5).

The workshop was attended by loss managers from four UK, one Spanish and one South African based companies with average annual turnovers of between GBP0.8 billion and GBP56 billion. The workshop took place in the [text removed for publication] of an international clothing retailer (annual international turnover of GBP900 million) in [text removed for publication] on 3 July 2020 and focused on the implementation of the new cost model. The same retailer then set up an NDA with the University of Portsmouth to test and develop the cost model. The data analytics team used the new cost model as a starting point to demonstrate to senior management that customers making returns in store was significantly more cost-effective than any other means of return, something that had not previously been apparent and which would change customer interactions. Subsequently, the international clothing retailer “used the model to inform a change of returns strategy that has led to a GBP10 million saving to the bottom line” ( S4).

Furthermore, the retailer stated that by using the cost model they identified that encouraging customers to return to store rather than by post could realise circa GBP1 million in a further reduction of costs to return goods in a full year. This information is still being reviewed to highlight further benefits to the business ( S6). During the covid-19 pandemic, ECR Retail Loss reported that several of their members have leveraged the model to account for the increased cost of returns being sent to fulfilment centres rather than being returned in store, enabling budget write offs to be estimated. Increased rates of return and the closures of stores will therefore increase the cost of returns and drive further innovation in this field ( S3).

In addition, the University of Portsmouth is negotiating an NDA with a European logistics company with an annual turnover of GBP60 billion who will begin a similar data analysis investigation based on our cost model in 2021. As a result of reading the report and follow-up conversations, one software company in Portsmouth also developed concepts for new products ( S7). These are expected to be introduced through 2021 in the previously mentioned international clothing retailer and the European logistics company.

In September 2020, ECR Retail Loss asked Jack to extend the cost model into an online self-assessment tool and to adapt the model to the cost of food waste to retailers ( S4).

Improved returns management through adoption of lean management and circular economy approaches

A smaller, invited group of ECR Retail Loss members was convened by ECR on 23 January 2020 at the headquarters of one of the major UK retailers. [text removed for publication] from that group have said that the research has been a definite prompt and input to change in their organisations, as well as enabling them personally to feel more confident in developing their evidence to present to company leaders ( S8). A [text removed for publication], working for a British fashion retailer with a turnover of around GBP1.8million, explained how the research helped them to engage with senior management to assess the potential of various changes in their current systemic and operational processes and procedures for handling digital web returns. This involved incrementally assessing all contributing factors to the operational cost and customer mindset when returning goods. Particularly during the COVID-19 crisis, the research helped companies to implement new procedures that changed the way their customer care and warehouse teams worked with customer returns, leading to a stronger business model during an unprecedented trading year ( S8).

ECR Retail Loss organised another workshop for a wider stakeholder group with a focus on how technology can help with returns management, which took place online on 15 July 2020 and was attended by retailers with annual turnovers of between GBP1 billion and GBP400 billion. ECR Retail Loss reported that the series of workshops has enabled retailers to share best practice and build capacity. In addition, they have changed their workshop programmes to increase their promotion of work around the returns process with the aim of ‘selling more and wasting less’ and to integrate a circular economy which was not previously on the agenda for research ( S4).

Integrating returns management into wider strategic planning processes through cross-functional teams and changed returns reporting practices and returns policies

One of the key issues identified in the research is the lack of cross-functional teams and Executive Director oversight of the returns process. A very serious concern of the loss prevention managers interviewed ( R1) was the difficulty in getting investment and intervention to mitigate returns because of the lack of involvement of other sections of their organisation. Through ECR Retail Loss the new cost model has been communicated at board level in the majority of retailers and that several retailers have already implemented cross-functional teams to tackle the growing rate of returns ( S4). ECR Retail Loss also report that others have leveraged the model to make significant changes to the way in which returns are managed, such as changing the threshold value for free deliveries ( S4).

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

(S1) Webinar slides; email communication as evidence of representative of [text removed for publication] endorsing the report and outlining changes they made; feedback from webinar attendees, 02/2019.

(S2) Feedback from webinar participants, 02/04/19.

(S3) Media analytics report, other outlets reproducing our article on tinyurl.com/yqlbjtgt.

(S4) Letter, Colin Peacock, Group Strategy Coordinator, ECR Retail Loss Group, corroborating impact on retailers and industry more widely, 22/10/2020.

(S5) Results of survey of ECR Community members to ascertain level of use of report, 11/2020.

(S6) Letter, major clothing retailer (HQ in South Africa), corroborating impact of cost of returns model, 01/2021.

(S7) Presentation by [text removed for publication] on their returns software at the Gartner Supply Chain conference, one of the biggest in the world, citing Jack’s work, 06/2019.

(S8) Emails from [text removed for publication] from two major UK retailers on how they have used the research for organisational change, 11/12/20 and 21/01/21.

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