Results and submissions : REF 2021

Affecting change of UK public health policy on vitamin D, sun exposure, skin cancer ...

Submitting institution: The University of Manchester
Unit of assessment: 7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type: Health
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

Research which established and mapped safe levels of sun exposure while meeting vitamin D requirements for different skin types has led to new public health advice and guidance from a range of UK public health, medical professional and charitable bodies. This includes a recommendation from Public Health England that everyone take a vitamin D supplement in autumn/winter or all year round in particular cases (given sun exposure and skin pigmentation). Making use of the team’s UK ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and vitamin D availability map, Boots Plc undertook a UK-wide press campaign promoting vitamin D supplementation and other bone health products with a [text removed for publication] increase in like-for-like sales of vitamin D, showing a shift in public behaviour re vitamin D supplementation.

2. Underpinning research

From 2007 onwards, interdisciplinary environmental research at The University of Manchester (UoM) has combined expertise in atmospheric science, dermatology and photobiology. The novelty of this research is in combining large-scale climate monitoring and modelling, with complex intervention studies with human participants. The research had the aim of determining whether it is possible in the UK to gain sufficient vitamin D through safe sun exposure (no risk of sunburn) [1, 2] and to deliver this information in a format suitable for a public health message.

Supporting this aim, the research had the following objectives:

to establish the seasonal cycle in vitamin D status across the UK [3];
to determine how much UVR and sunlight is required to raise vitamin D status to sufficient levels [4 - 6] and
to determine whether this is easily attainable in the UK climate.

The work was completed for two population sub-groups, lighter skin (skin types I-IV) and darker skin (skin type V) [2, 5] since melanin (pigmentation) protects against sunburn but also reduces vitamin D synthesis.

The most significant research findings are:

The research confirmed, for the first time in in vivo studies, the seasonal cycle in vitamin D status and associated ‘vitamin D winter’ i.e. the period when there is not enough sunlight to make any appreciable vitamin D in skin (October to early March) in the UK [3]; a hypothesis first established in ex vivo (or modelling) research by Webb and colleagues in the late 1980s.
The research has established, for the first time, levels of sunlight exposure – for lighter and darker skin types – that balances the benefits of adequate vitamin D production with the risks of sunburn and skin cancer. This research [1, 3, 4] showed that summer sun exposure could safely provide for yearly vitamin D needs in UK (maintaining the circulating metabolite at > 25 nmol/L year round).
More specifically, the research shows that, for people with lighter skin, daily (or almost daily) sunlight exposure of unprotected skin for just 10-15 minutes during the spring and summer months should provide adequate vitamin D to avoid vitamin D deficiency all year round [4 - 6]. For most, this will be a relatively safe level of exposure, minimising the risks of skin cancer seen with higher exposure levels. It is important to note that this should be undertaken in the middle of the day, with exposure of lower arms and lower legs to maximise benefit. The research also shows that, for people with darker skin (skin type V) in the UK, 25-40 minutes of exposure under the same conditions will avoid summertime deficiency, while vitamin D supplements should be considered during the winter months [2, 5]. This research showed that these complexities could be presented as relatively simple messages for lighter and darker skin types [2]. Nonetheless, it was clear that for many, this exposure was not achieved in an increasingly diverse population [3 - 5], where existing public health policy was to protect against sun exposure.
For the first time, the research has established a highly rigorous annual UK UVR – and, therefore, vitamin D – availability map, showing a broad diminution in availability of UVR from sunlight from south west to north east in the UK [6]. While this work is UK specific it is directly applicable to locations at similar latitudes and can be modified to other latitudes based on the local UVR climatology.

3. References to the research

The underpinning research is published in over ten papers in peer-reviewed journals. Citations from Web of Science (November 2020).

Felton SJ, Cooke MS, Kift R, Berry JL, Webb AR, Lam PM, de Gruijl FR, Vail A, and Rhodes LE (2016) Concurrent beneficial (vitamin D production) and hazardous (cutaneous DNA damage) impact of repeated low-level summer sunlight exposures. British Journal of Dermatology, 175: 1321-28, DOI: 10.1111/bjd.14863 (34 citations)
Webb AR, Kazantzidis A, Kift RC, Farrar MD, Wilkinson J, and Rhodes LE (2018) Meeting Vitamin D Requirements in White Caucasians at UK Latitudes: Providing a Choice. Nutrients, 10(4), 497; DOI: 10.3390/nu10040497 (14 citations)
Webb, AR, Kift RC, Durkin M, O’Brien S, Vail A, Berry JL, and Rhodes LE (2010). The role of sunlight exposure in determining the vitamin D status of the UK white Caucasian adult population. British Journal of Dermatology, 163, 1050-1055; DOI:10.1111/j.1365-2133.2010.09975.x. (104 citations)
Rhodes LE, Webb AR, Fraser H, Kift R, Durkin M, Vail A, O’Brien S, Allan D, and Berry JL (2010) Recommended summer sunlight exposure levels can produce sufficient (>20 ng ml⁻¹) but not the proposed optimal (>32 ng ml⁻¹) 25(OH)D levels at UK latitudes Journal of Investigative Dermatology, 130, 1411-1418; DOI:10.1038/jid.2009.417 (98 citations)
Farrar MD, Kift R, Felton SJ, Berry JL, Durkin MT, Allan D, Vail A , Webb AR and Rhodes LE (2011) Recommended summer sunlight exposure amounts fail to produce sufficient vitamin D status in UK adults of South Asian origin, The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 94 (5): 1219-1224; DOI: 10.3945/ajcn.111.019976. (70 citations)
Kazantzidis A, Smedley ARD, Kift RC, Rimmer JS, Berry JL, Rhodes LE and Webb AR (2015) Modelling approach to determine how much UV radiation is available across the UK and Ireland for health risk and benefit studies. Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences 14:1073-81; DOI: 10.1039/c5pp00008d (17 citations)

The research has been supported by GBP1,300,000 in funding from: European Union, Department of Health Policy Research Programme, Action Medical Research, BUPA Foundation, Dunhill Medical Trust and Cancer Research UK (three grants), and British Skin Foundation. The research is also underpinned by UV monitoring, funded by DEFRA (GBP1,600,000, 2007-2018).

Rhodes was awarded the Edna Roe Lecturer Award 2019, for contributions to photobiology science (International Union of Photobiology). Webb and Rhodes have delivered invited plenary lectures at major international conferences, including: World Congress of Photobiology (2019), American Society for Photobiology Congress (2018), European Society for Photobiology Congress (2010-17), British Association of Dermatologists Conference (2015). As detailed below, Webb and Rhodes have undertaken advisory roles for numerous important government and charity scientific advisory groups, including Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition, Public Health England, and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

4. Details of the impact

Vitamin D is an essential vitamin, helping to regulate the amount of calcium and phosphate in the body, and therefore important to healthy bones and muscles. A lack of vitamin D can lead to bone deformities and pain, and recent research suggests vitamin D reduces infection and modulates the severe complications of Covid-19. For most people, exposure to sunlight is the primary source of vitamin D. Yet the dominant message in health advice has focussed solely on the risk of sun exposure, such as sunburn and skin cancer, rather than these important benefits. In 2019, a YouGov poll for the University of Manchester showed that while many people know about the benefits of sun exposure their behaviour is still very often driven by risk aversion.

This research [1-6] has produced impact in two key areas relating to vitamin D acquisition: UK public health policy and communications relating to sunlight exposure, and sales of vitamin D supplementation.

i) Changing guidance and informing UK public health policy

Impact through changing guidance and informing public health policy has been achieved as a result of the research being used in policy development by relevant public bodies and charities. By virtue of their research [1-6], Webb and Rhodes have acted as scientific experts to these bodies. Much of this policy change has resulted through the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN). SACN’s recommendations directly inform those of Public Health England (PHE) and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).

In 2013, SACN undertook a review of their sun exposure assumptions in providing for the nation’s vitamin D needs. Webb was a special advisor on the photobiology of vitamin D to the SACN ‘Vitamin D and Health’ committee and report ([A], p. v), delivering a position paper in October 2013 and following up with further evidence in November and December 2013. This drew upon the research into safe summer sun exposure providing adequate vitamin D [1, 3, 4] as well as how this is simply conveyed for lighter and darker skin tones [2].

Subsequently, SACN published recommendations based on the University of Manchester research [1-4] that – for the first time – recommended a Reference Nutrient Intake for vitamin D of 10 µg (400 IU) per day for everyone over age 4 years [B]. Prior to the 2016 report and based on the assumption that needs were met through sunlight exposure, there was no recommended dietary intake of vitamin D for most of the UK population. Whilst SACN Recommendation S.37 ([A], p. xv) acknowledges that sunlight is a major source of vitamin D, it notes that numerous complex factors associated with exposure preclude offering specific advice on sun exposure. [Text removed from publication].

In July 2016, based on the SACN report and UoM research, PHE updated their advice on vitamin D. PHE now recommend that everyone take a vitamin D supplement in autumn/winter or all year round in particular cases e.g. those with little sun exposure, or pigmented skin [C]. PHE (to be replaced with the National Institute for Health Protection in 2021) has responsibility for advising the UK governments and agencies on standards of protection for exposure to non-ionising radiation. To support this, they set up the PHE Advisory Group on Non-ionising Radiation (AGNIR) in 1990, which is specifically a scientific review body advising Government. AGNIR last published a review of the health effects of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in 2002. In 2013, AGNIR appointed Rhodes as a Board member, and to co-author the 2017 ‘UVR and Vitamin D Report’ [D]. PHE commissioned the report in response to the difficulties faced by SACN in handling sun exposure recommendations and specifically the nuanced messaging required to address the entire population [4, 5]. The report contributed to PHE’s recognition of the importance of sunlight in vitamin D supply. This underpinned a change in PHE advice on supplementation during Covid-19 lockdown (April 2020) [C]: the limits on outdoor activity for the whole population during this time, led to advice for the whole population to supplement through summer.

NICE Public Health Advisory Committee on sunlight and vitamin D have also changed guidance and recommendations following the UoM research [E]. Rhodes was invited onto the Committee as an Expert Member (2014-2016) and NICE confirm that the UoM work [3-5] “ *directly contributed to the new NICE guidance (NG34)*” on Sunlight and Vitamin D [F]. NG34 now acknowledges that, despite the recommendations in the 2016 SACN report, some people will choose to get their vitamin D from sunlight. The guidelines directly reflect the findings of the UoM research of population sub-groups [4, 5], and recommend developing tailored messages for sun exposure for different skin types. NICE guidelines for Vitamin D (PH56) [G] were updated in 2017, in accordance with the updated SACN recommendations from the UoM research to define specific at-risk groups, and to update reference nutrient intake details [F].

Further public health messages have since been revised, based on the UoM research. Rhodes’ advice [3-5] on sunlight exposure was reflected in adjustments to NHS Choices public advice website post-2010 to include the vitamin D benefit of sunlight exposure [H]. Webb’s advice was further reflected in new guidance regarding supplementation [H: 2016], while PHE advice to NHS on Vitamin D during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic was informed by the work of Webb and Rhodes [C]. Cancer Research UK (CRUK) have also used the research, specifically using the findings of [2] to update their policy and online advice to include specific advice in terms of recommended minutes of safe sunlight exposure for different skin types [I]. In 2018, Rhodes and CRUK collaborated on a CRUK blog including this advice, which has been accessed more than 20,000 times [I]. In 2018, this research also led the British Association of Dermatologists (BAD) to develop two new areas of the BAD public-facing information website: ‘Sun advice for skin of colour’ and ‘Vitamin D Information’ [Text removed for publication].

ii) Changing behaviour of the UK population

The UoM research can be seen to be changing public behaviour in relation to Vitamin D in-take and sun exposure. In late 2018 Boots plc (a major pharmaceutical retailer in the UK), through advertisers Ogilvy, approached Professor Webb to develop a UK UVR and vitamin D availability map [6]. Between February and April 2019, Boots Plc used this research [6] to undertake a UK-wide press campaign promoting vitamin D supplementation and other bone health products [K]. The UoM research specifically identified Stirling as the UK city with greatest risk of vitamin D deficiency [6], and targeted marketing activity by Boots in the city led to a [text removed for publication] increase in sales there. Nationally, Boots experienced an increase in like-for-like sales of vitamin D products of [text removed for publication], compared to 2018 [K]. This increase demonstrates that this public health advice has now reached a significant proportion of the UK population, and altered their vitamin D intake behaviour.

Arsenic research identifies avoidable health risks from groundwater arsenic informing ...

Submitting institution: The University of Manchester
Unit of assessment: 7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type: Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

Worldwide over 100,000,000 people are exposed to arsenic through the use of high arsenic groundwaters, resulting in 100,000s of premature deaths annually. Our research has enabled better prediction of groundwater arsenic, has highlighted eating rice as a major arsenic exposure route, and provided quantitative estimates of arsenic-attributable health and economic risks. Our research has informed development of government and non-government policies and actions to reduce the health and economic impacts of exposure to groundwater arsenic. Beneficiaries include:

millions of people globally whose arsenic exposure through eating rice has been reduced;
[text removed for publication] households in Bihar, India through mitigation of contaminated water supplies; [text removed for publication] and the prevention of [text removed for publication] avoidable premature deaths; and
populations exposed to chemical environmental agents in England and Wales, where our work has contributed to the development of Environmental Public Health Tracking [text removed for publication].

2. Underpinning research

University of Manchester (UoM) research has developed understanding of: (i) what factors control how arsenic gets into groundwater and hence what factors control its distribution in groundwater in different parts of the world; (ii) what the major routes of exposure to humans of arsenic are; and (iii) what the health and economic costs of these exposures are, both to individuals and to the wider community. All of these advances in understanding have contributed to (and continue to) informing decisions by stakeholders on how best to practically reduce human exposures to toxic arsenic.

Research into the most important global type of groundwater contamination (by population exposed) demonstrated that natural bacteria play a critical role in enabling high concentrations of arsenic to build up in groundwater; a key process is a coupled reduction-oxidation reaction accelerated by these bacteria [1]. This involves the reduction of arsenic-bearing minerals, such as iron oxides/hydroxides coupled with the oxidation of organic matter. The importance of this reaction means the supply of reactive organic matter into a groundwater may serve to accelerate the rate of arsenic release from minerals (where it does not constitute a risk) to the groundwater (where it does constitute a risk through drinking water supply). UoM research (e.g. [1], [2]) has confirmed what others have suggested, namely that massive groundwater-sourced irrigation in some groundwater arsenic impacted countries may lead to reactive organic matter from the surface being drawn into groundwater systems – thereby increasing rates of arsenic release. The UoM research concluded that modified irrigation practices (particularly of rice paddies) is necessary.

UoM researchers were the first to publish on the nature and existence of groundwater arsenic hazard in Cambodia and have since established [3] that a substantial groundwater arsenic hazard also exists in the basins of small rivers – enabling better prediction of groundwater arsenic distribution.

UoM researchers demonstrated that rice is an important exposure route for humans to arsenic particularly for people for whom rice is their main dietary staple [4]. We were the first to directly demonstrate an association between the consumption of arsenic through rice and markers (specifically the frequency of damaged cell nuclei) of cancer-related ill-health outcomes [5]. This work indicated that human exposure to inorganic arsenic through eating rice should be reduced; for example, through a combination of better regulation, better growing practices and/or modified consumer behaviour.

UoM also used environmental analyses and biomarkers to demonstrate human exposure to arsenic from private water supplies in south-west England [6]. In particular, analysis of chemical arsenic species in urine have enabled UoM researchers to distinguish between exposure to generally-thought-to-be non-toxic organic arsenicals from seafood and exposure to highly toxic inorganic arsenic from drinking water. Around 5% of householders with private water supplies in south-west England were found to have such elevated arsenic exposures.

4. Details of the impact

Since 2014, UoM research on arsenic in groundwater has significantly impacted on reducing household exposure to arsenic, policy and practice change around arsenic mitigation, and on water supply management, contributing towards the UN Millennium Development Goal of increasing safe water supply. This impact has directly benefitted at least 100,000 households in Bihar State (India) and shaped Public Health England’s (PHE) practices in England. Globally, this research has directly informed the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) updated “Arsenic Primer”, where the UoM research findings on the extent, consequences and options for mitigating arsenic contamination are summarised for water sector professionals and agencies responsible for drinking water quality.

The key research findings [1-6] were disseminated to, and discussed with, those directly working on issues of arsenic poisoning. This was undertaken through stakeholder meetings between UoM and partners in India (with local and national Government agencies, appointed as advisors to the Bihar State Pollution Control Board), Myanmar (Ministry of Education) and Cambodia (Ministry of Rural Development, and a National NGO), developing community science projects with schools in India (in Patna, Delhi and Mumbai), as well as presenting the findings of risk assessment work to all the major water supply companies in England and Wales.

Four areas of specific impact have resulted from the underpinning research at the University of Manchester:

Informing international best-practice:

The International Water Association (IWA) “Best Practice Guide for the Control of Arsenic in Drinking Water (2017)” relies heavily on the UoM work: 8 out of 24 chapters are co-authored by the Manchester team and the team’s work is referenced over 60 times [A]. This best-practice guide has been cited by the World Health Organisation (WHO)/UNICEF in their updated “UNICEF Arsenic Primer” as one of nine publications that are recommended as a general resource on arsenic contamination and mitigation. WHO/UNICEF state that whilst the IWA Best Practice Guide is not always explicitly cited in the Primer, it is regarded as a resource for most of the chapters [B].

Shaping Indian State-level policy:

As a result of their research ([1-5], [B]) in February 2018, Polya and (former Manchester PhD student) Mondal were appointed as Advisors to the Bihar State Pollution Control Board. [Text removed for publication]. Polya and Mondal have presented their work to key stakeholders in Bihar, including UNICEF, the State Minister for the Environment, and the State Health Society, resulting in increased awareness of groundwater arsenic hazard, exposure and health risks [C]. Their input has been specifically noted by the Honourable Deputy Chief Minister for Bihar as inputting to the State’s goals to make arsenic free drinking water available to all areas affected by arsenic contamination [C].

Through stakeholder presentations at the Bihar State Pollution Control Board in February 2018, the group’s research [4] and [B] has contributed to improved awareness and understanding of environmental arsenic’s contribution to the prevalence of cancer within the State [E]. [Text removed for publication]. A student science project with 6 schools/colleges in Bihar, which involved the collection of water samples for analysis in the Manchester Analytical Geochemistry Unit at UoM also served to raise community awareness of geogenic groundwater contaminants.

Informing EU policy:

UoM research on the association of biomarkers of ill-health with consumption of high inorganic arsenic [5] is cited by the European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) 2014 report on “Dietary Exposure to inorganic arsenic in the European Population”, which recommends that dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic can be reduced through appropriate cultivation strategies [F]. Through highlighting the level of arsenic exposures that result in adverse human health effects and the typical range of dietary arsenic exposure in Europe (provided via [5]), this EFSA report underpins the revised European Regulation on Arsenic in Rice (EU Direction 2015/1006 Amending Annex to Regulation (EC) No 1881/2006). This regulates the arsenic content of rice supplied to EU consumers to 200 µg/kg for adults and to 100 µg/kg for children [G]. It is estimated that globally over 50,000 premature deaths annually are attributable to dietary arsenic [G].

Shaping UK and International Public Health Strategy:

The group’s research into private drinking water supplies in the UK [6], conducted with the British Geological Survey (BGS), has [text removed for publication]. Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) aims to develop comprehensive public health surveillance and environmental health tracking systems for toxic hazards and health effects to provide the essential context for risk assessment. The UK Government invests GBP340,000 per annum into EPHT through the Department of Health. [Text removed for publication].

In England and Wales, the EPHT programme is a key function to support the forthcoming PHE Environmental Public Health Strategy. Projects in the EPHT programme, including [6] are crucial to enable PHE to develop comprehensive environmental tracking systems for toxic hazards [K]. The UoM research, including [6], is specifically referenced in the EPHT, where the research is acknowledged to have “ confirmed human exposure to arsenic from the use of private water supplies” [K]. [Text removed for publication].

PHE have confirmed that as a result of the evidence and information they gained through the collaborative research project with UoM-BGS, they now advise other national public health agencies, most recently in the Republic of Georgia and in Ghana, to support the prevention of exposure to hazardous chemicals in drinking water [I].

Development of radioactive effluent management strategies at Sellafield delivers ...

Submitting institution: The University of Manchester
Unit of assessment: 7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type: Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

The Sellafield site, in Cumbria (UK), is one of the most complex and hazardous nuclear sites in the world. Our research in the Effluent Centre of Expertise has led to the following impacts:

optimised treatment protocols for radioactive reprocessing effluents, allowing Sellafield to achieve a 50 – 90% reduction in actinide discharges during targeted periods of plant operations and significantly reducing alpha radioactivity discharges to the Irish Sea;
modified sludge management practices within the spent nuclear fuel ponds has reduced radioactivity within the effluent treatment system by between 69% and 95%, with estimated operational savings of at least GBP22,500,000;
informed biomass control strategies, enabling a 40% increase in fuel retrieval operations from the Pile Fuel Storage Pond (in 2019 compared to 2018), with savings of at least GBP2,400,000.

2. Underpinning research

Research in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Manchester (UoM) has focussed on effluent behaviour at the Sellafield nuclear site, one of the most complex and hazardous nuclear facilities in the world. This research has been undertaken by UoM academics (Morris/Shaw/Lloyd), PDRAs (Smith/Foster/Neill) and PhDs (Weatherill 2013-16; Konovalovaitė 2013–17; Lopez 2015-18; Winstanley 2016-19; Neill 2015-18; Foster 2015-18), alongside industrial partners working within the Sellafield Effluent Centre of Expertise (ECoE). The ECoE is an ongoing research collaboration between the University of Manchester, Sellafield Ltd. and the National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) since 2012.

Research problem

At Sellafield, radioactive effluents arise both from fuel reprocessing, and the management of legacy ponds and silos, which are a range of older facilities containing highly radioactive “sludge”. The UK Government’s Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) have instructed the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, the organisation responsible for operating Sellafield, to prioritise reducing these risks. The optimal management and treatment of the ponds, silos, and reprocessing effluents is crucial to both reduce the hazard, and protect the environment. The legacy ponds and silos are the highest hazards at Sellafield: their safe decommissioning is a programme of the utmost national and international importance.

Research programme

Since 2013, to address these challenges, a UoM programme of research has covered three areas:

Iron oxide flocculation and radionuclide removal during reprocessing effluent treatment [1,2]: The Sellafield Enhanced Actinide Removal Plant (EARP) treats acidic, iron containing radioactive effluents from nuclear fuel reprocessing. As Sellafield moves from reprocessing activities to decommissioning (2019 onwards), EARP will need to treat various effluents, including new clean-out effluents with different chemical compositions than previously treated effluents. The EARP process neutralises the acidic, radioactive effluents to form an iron floc that scavenges the radionuclides from solution. The treated aqueous effluent is then safely discharged to the environment under authorisation. UoM research into the EARP floc formation pathway identified that previously undiscovered Fe₁₃ Keggin moieties were present under very acidic conditions (pH <0.15) [1]. Counter to classic nucleation and growth models, as the pH was increased, the Keggin clusters aggregated to form the iron floc particles [1]. Further research provided detailed insight into the mechanisms of uranium, plutonium and thorium adsorption/removal on the ferrihydrite floc [e.g. 2].
Colloid stability and radionuclide behaviour in spent fuel pond effluents [3,4]: The effluent from the Sellafield Legacy Ponds and Silos (SLPS) nuclear fuel ponds is radioactive and treated at Sellafield in the Site Ion Exchange Plant (SIXEP) before authorised discharge to the environment. Effective effluent treatment reduces the high hazard of these facilities by supporting essential operations to empty and decommission the ponds and further leads to reduced radionuclide discharges to the environment. UoM research [3, 4] provided fundamental understanding of uranium colloid stability and speciation in conditions directly relevant to the Sellafield nuclear fuel ponds.
Biomass characterisation and control strategies in spent nuclear fuel ponds [5,6]: In order to decommission the SLPS facility, nuclear materials must be removed from the legacy ponds and treated in additional facilities. Within the ponds, microbial biomass growth can reduce pond visibility, which in turn affects the transfer of nuclear material through the facility. For the first time, the UoM research [5, 6] provided detailed information on the microbial ecology of these ponds before, during and after bloom periods, and identified that photosynthetic microorganisms were responsible for the loss in visibility during blooms. Identifying the causative organisms of these blooms is vital to underpin biomass control strategies at Sellafield.

3. References to the research

This body of research has been funded through industry (Sellafield Ltd), UoM, EPSRC, BBSRC and STFC, receiving cumulative funding of greater than GBP2,100,000 (EP/R511626/1, ST/N002474/1, EP/G037426/1). UoM researchers are highlighted in bold.

Weatherill, J , Morris, K, Bots, P, Stawski, TM , Janssen, A, Abrahamsen, L, Blackham, R & Shaw, S (2016) 'Ferrihydrite formation: the role of Fe13 Keggin clusters' Environmental Science and Technology. 50 (17) DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b02481
Smith, KF, Morris, K, Law, GTW, Winstanley, EH, Livens, FR, Weatherill, JS, Abrahamsen-Mills, LG, Bryan, ND, Mosselmans, JFW, Cibin, G, Parry, S, Blackham, R, Law, KA, Shaw, S (2019) Plutonium(IV) Sorption during Ferrihydrite Nanoparticle Formation. ACS Earth and Space Chemistry, 3 (11), DOI:10.1021/acsearthspacechem.9b00105.
Neill, TS , Morris, K, Pearce, CI, Sherriff, NK , Burke, MG , Chater, P , Janssen, A , Natrajan, LS, Shaw, S (2018) 'Stability, composition and core-shell particle structure of uranium(IV)-silicate colloids' Environmental Science & Technology. 52 (16) DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b01756.
Neill, TS , Morris, K, Pearce, CI, Abrahamsen-Mills, L, Kovarik, L, Kellet, S, Rigby, B, Vitova, T, Schacherl, B, Shaw, S. (2018), 'Silicate stabilisation of colloidal UO₂ produced by uranium metal corrosion. Journal of Nuclear Materials. 526, DOI: 10.1016/j.jnucmat.2019.151751.
MeGraw, VE, Brown, AR, Boothman, C , Goodacre, R , Morris, K , Sigee, D, Anderson, L, Lloyd, JR (2018), ' A Novel Adaptation Mechanism Underpinning Algal Colonization of a Nuclear Fuel Storage Pond' mBio, 9 (3). DOI: 10.1128/mBio.02395-17.
Foster L, Boothman C, Ruiz-Lopez S, Boshoff, G., Jenkinson, P., Sigee, D., Pittman, J.K., Morris, K. and Lloyd, J.R (2020). ‘Microbial bloom formation in a high pH spent nuclear fuel pond.’ The Science of the Total Environment, 720:137515. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137515

4. Details of the impact

Context

The Sellafield nuclear site in Cumbria (UK) has been operating since the 1940s. It is at the heart of the UK’s nuclear fuel cycle, and activities at the site are now moving towards the safe packaging and storage of higher-activity radioactive wastes and the clean-up and decommissioning of the site. The Sellafield complex accounts for approximately 76% of the UK’s decommissioning legacy, and as of 2019, the estimated cost for decommissioning the site was at least GBP94,000,000,000 with a timeframe of over 120 years [A].

During ongoing site operations and decommissioning, two types of radioactive effluents are generated. Firstly, acidic radioactive effluents from reprocessing spent nuclear fuel, and the subsequent clean-up of legacy reprocessing facilities are treated in the Enhanced Actinide Removal Plant (EARP). Secondly, neutral to alkaline radioactive effluents from the Sellafield Legacy Ponds and Silos (SLPS) are treated in the Site Ion Exchange Plant (SIXEP). The SLPS are the highest nuclear risks and hazards at Sellafield and removing the radioactive material to reduce those risks therefore carries a level of urgency [B].

Pathways to impact

Formed in 2012, the Effluent Centre of Expertise (ECoE) is a collaboration between UoM, Sellafield Ltd. and the NNL. The aim of ECoE is to “ provide fundamental understanding of the underlying processes impacting on effluent management…. which in turn provides direct cost savings and risk reduction and therefore increases stakeholder confidence in operational activities” [C]. Regular (bi-annual) technical meetings are held between the ECoE partners to discuss key results as they are identified, with subsequent publication of the research in papers and PhD theses. State-of-the art research methodologies (Transmission Electron Microscopy, preparation methods and microbial ecology characterisation) have been transferred directly into industry via the ECoE [D][E].

These results have “already been applied to optimise operations in EARP and ponds and silos” [C]. Whilst UoM has several long-standing research collaborations with stakeholders at Sellafield, the impacts described below stem from the fundamental research conducted in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [1-6], and partly build upon research conducted in the Department of Chemistry at UoM which is discussed in an impact case submitted to UOA 8.

Reach and significance of the impact

In summary, research within the ECoE [1-6] enabled Sellafield to significantly reduce radioactive discharges to the environment from the site [D][F]. Improved understanding of the chemical and microbial processes within these effluent treatment facilities has allowed Sellafield to optimise plant performance thus enabling high hazard reduction [D, F], and to predict the performance of EARP and SIXEP with greater confidence. Sellafield have estimated savings of over GBP24,900,000 as a result of the operational changes underpinned by the ECoE research [D][E][F]. Key highlights are given here:

(i) Iron Oxide formation and radionuclide removal in EARP: reduction in environmental discharge

UoM research on iron oxide floc formation pathways [1] was discussed with NNL and Sellafield in 2013/14 (prior to publication). This discussion highlighted that effluent streams in EARP with higher initial pH values, may be less effective at removing radionuclides from effluents than previously thought. As a result, Sellafield changed the acid dosing of EARP effluents, specifically increasing the level of acidity in the effluent prior to neutralisation in order to enhance Fe₁₃ Keggin formation and radionuclide sorption [F]. This change significantly reduced the “ alpha radioactivity environmental discharges from this effluent treatment facility to the Irish Sea” [F]. Specifically, in high challenge liquor batches there has been a “ *reduction in alpha activity discharge to the sea [by] 90%*” [F]. In the case of ²⁴¹Am, this reduction due to acid dosing changes also has regulatory significance as it “forms part of Sellafield’s demonstration of applying BAT (Best Available Techniques) within the Environmental Permit which forms part of [Sellafield’s] legal consent to operate.” [F].

Additional research on radionuclide removal within EARP [2] provided detailed understanding of the retention mechanisms of key radionuclides on plant. These results directly informed predictive models for radionuclide behaviour, including plutonium, in the EARP system “ that will be used to plan future operations and to ensure radioactivity is abated” [F]. Sellafield confirmed this research has “ significantly improved effluent treatment processes in EARP… assisting the decommissioning process, overall leading to reduction in discharge and assisting in the clean-up of Sellafield site. These improvements support the optimisation of site decommissioning, which is a multi-billion pound project…These improvements would not have been possible without the research” [F].

(ii) Uranium colloid stability: improved management of spent nuclear fuel pond decommissioning

During decommissioning of the SLPS, removing highly radioactive sludge reduces the hazard in the ponds, a top priority decommissioning need. During pond retrievals, “settling” must occur to separate liquids from the highly radioactive solids. The associated radioactive liquors are then treated within SIXEP. Previously, these liquors were collected in an effluent collection vessel (ECV) where the radioactivity in the liquors was increasing with each retrieval. The uranium colloid stability research [3, 4] was discussed within the ECoE during 2015/16 (prior to publication). Underpinned by this new understanding of dynamic colloid behaviour [3, 4], in 2017, Sellafield adopted new protocols for plant operations and pond effluents management, and have confirmed “without the University of Manchester research this new fundamental understanding would not have been developed.” [D].

The new protocols include new ECV mixing regimes implemented to reduce the colloid concentrations in the ECV “which in turn reduced both alpha activity and turbidity in the system by over 95% [and] total beta activity concentrations by 69%” [D]. This has also reduced the processing time on plant, resulting in estimated cost savings of GBP500,000 over the lifetime of the retrievals programme [D]. Reducing colloid concentrations in the ECV has also reduced the level of monitoring and surveillance required on site, leading to estimated cost savings of GBP2,000,000 over the lifetime of the retrievals programme [D]. Likewise, increasing the rate of waste retrievals has reduced batch processing times, resulting in further estimated cost savings of GBP10,000,000 over SIXEP’s operational lifetime [D].

The results in [3, 4] also directly informed decisions to reconfigure the effluent discharge route. This has sustained in-pond visibility at a level that enables retrievals from the SLPS to continue, resulting in a further operational cost saving estimated at GBP10,000,000 over the lifetime of the retrievals programme [D]. Overall, the research has enabled “ high hazard reduction; a reduction in the effluent activity challenge; the avoidance of delays to retrievals that would deliver potential cost savings in the order £10M+ [more than GBP10,000,000] ; simplification of effluent treatment; [and] improvements to the characterisation of high activity samples” and is integrated into the Sellafield “Alpha Guidelines Document”, the primary information source on the behaviour of alpha emitting radioactivity in the SLPS [D].

(iii) Biomass characterisation: control of microbial bloom events and enabling movement through the Fuel Handling Pond

As discussed already, safely removing highly radioactive sludge from the SLPS is essential to reducing the hazard of these facilities. However, microbial blooms in the SLPS can reduce pond visibility, which in turn can severely delay sludge retrievals [E]. In 2018, UoM research utilising the DNA analysis pipeline demonstrated in [5,6] enabled the predominant photosynthetic species that cause these microbial blooms in the Pile Fuel Storage Pond (PFSP), to be identified [E]. As a result, an optimal, targeted frequency of the ultrasonic biomass control units in the PFSP could be selected to control the species in the pond enabling Sellafield to implement effective bloom control strategies [E].

Sellafield amended these ultrasonic settings in April 2019. After this and for the remainder of 2019, there were 40% more days with sufficient visibility to enable pond retrievals to occur when compared to 2018 [E]. Furthermore, retrievals were possible everyday between 1 January 2020 to 15 March 2020 (74 days), compared to only 26 days in the same period in 2019 [E]. Each day that in-pond retrieval operations are impacted by an algal bloom is “estimated to cost the programme in excess of GBP50,000” [E], already representing a cumulative saving of GBP2,400,000. Given the retrievals programme is likely to last 10 years+ [B], the benefit of targeted algal bloom control will run into millions of pounds [E]. Additionally, enabling the PFSP decommissioning programme to run on time, increases confidence in the programme of key stakeholders including the site operators (NDA), regulators (ONR and Environment Agency) and the general public [E].

DNA sequencing using the DNA profiling pipeline demonstrated in [5, 6] has also been used to characterise several hydraulically connected ponds including the First Generation Magnox Storage Pond (FGMSP) and the Fuel Handling Pond (FHP). Controlled movement of material between these ponds is necessary to repackage degraded spent fuel materials and thus reduce hazard. These methods and data showed that each pond has a distinct microbial community adapted to live in that facility, despite being hydraulically connected. Sellafield therefore concluded “that there were minimal risks of cross contamination [of biomass] causing visibility problems” [E]. This negated previous concerns that movement between ponds potentially seeds bloom causing microorganisms, and “ helped [Sellafield]

with the decision-making process to allow the transfer of fuel between the two facilities and

in doing so has allowed the FGMSP high hazard and risk reduction programme to progress” [E]. Permitting the transfer of fuel from the FGMSP to FHP has led to major cost savings (estimated at greater than GBP10,000,000) [E].

Making drinking water safe by enabling ‘smart’ water distribution networks

Submitting institution: The University of Manchester
Unit of assessment: 7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type: Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

Population and economic growth are placing increased demands on water distribution networks (WDN) in developed and developing countries. To maintain performance, more proactive – “smart” data-driven – management of this critical infrastructure is required. The University of Manchester research has played a critical role in moving the industry toward this goal. This research enabled hardware specifically designed for extensive monitoring of water quality (e.g. turbidity, disinfection) to be developed and, subsequently, new methods to turn the produced data into knowledge. This resulted in

commercialisation and licensing of the unique hardware - HydraClam®; ChloroClam® - bringing direct revenue of more than GBP3,650,000;
additional sales of at least GBP9,200,000 through establishing a new global market for the network wide instrumentation;
providing a means for water distribution companies to transition to smart-water management; and
enabling reliable water monitoring in ‘fragile’ WDNs, such as refugee camps.

2. Underpinning research

Research from The University of Manchester (UoM) into water quality monitoring in the environment has been co-produced with Salamander Ltd, a spinout company formed, and owned by Boult (since 1996). This relationship resulted in a progressive sequence of research, moving from the natural environment to the engineered environment of water distribution networks driven by the commercial imperatives of Salamander Ltd. These include:

Research on instrumentation for high resolution monitoring in WDN:

Underpinning research at UoM included hydrogeochemical investigations, which were distinguished by the efforts to be relevant to real (field) systems and, therefore, required field monitoring to set samples and processes into context [1]. This demonstrated that; (i) water quality was highly variable in the field and so management required measurement at higher spatio-temporal resolution, and (ii) existing monitoring equipment was inadequate for extensive use in the field. UoM developed custom hardware to address this need, which was commercialised through Salamander Ltd. In 2003 the research instrumentation evolved into HydraClam® (measuring turbidity – Figure 1) and ChloroClam® (measuring chlorine concentration). These patented products for monitoring water quality in water distribution networks (WDN), were licensed to Siemens. Research activity tested instruments in difficult environments to make iterative developments of the hardware [1, 2]. This demonstrated that the data was more important than the hardware, consequently research was necessary to develop an appropriate telemetry system.

Figure 1. The HydraClam instrumentation, as an example of the Clam hardware

Research on wireless sensor networks that function in challenging environments:

In order to develop an appropriate telemetry system, research projects were undertaken between UoM, Salamander, and BT plc through several Technology Strategy Board, NERC Small Business Research Initiative (SBRI), and EPSRC/BBSRC projects, including a CASE PhD studentship. The research included testing wireless sensor network telemetry in an offshore environment, in order to optimise use of hardware resources such as battery and bandwidth [2]. This research facilitated commercial development of a machine-to-machine (M2M) telemetry system that enabled the high-resolution monitoring of HydraClam® available in real-time; a critical requirement for proactive (smart) WDN management. Large volumes of data were collected once this was made possible, and it became apparent that further research was required to turn data into knowledge (see below).

Research to demonstrate the utility of high-resolution real-time data in managing a Water Distribution Network (WDN):

From 2009, the research focus shifted from hardware development towards turning WDN quality data into knowledge for operational management decisions. Specifically, this included the use of a mass-balance approach to predict (and thus manage) potable WDNs in relation to discolouration caused by metal oxides. This research demonstrated that high temporal resolution measurements were necessary to fully resolve the relationship between water turbidity (and hence discolourations) in a distribution network, hydraulic flow disturbance, and sediment availability [3]. UoM research also showed that water quality variation can be used as an ad-hoc tracer to measure discharge and manage chlorine decay [4]. Eight UK Water Services Providers (WSP) collaborated in these projects, comprising more than 50% of UK WSPs.

Since 2018, further ChloroClam® research projects funded by an EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account (IAA) in partnership with Save the Children and Evoqua WT Plc in refugee camps in Iraq and Bangladesh, have also reported that the proportionate benefit of smart monitoring is practicable, and preferable, in “ad-hoc or fragile” WDNs than in developed countries [5].

4. Details of the impact

Society depends on WDNs to provide the fundamental need of clean drinking water. Globally, the WDN infrastructure is ageing, deteriorating, and increasingly under pressure from climate change, urbanisation and population growth in developed and developing countries. To address these challenges, and to support the United Nations Millennium Development Goal of increasing access to safe drinking water, WDN infrastructure must become adaptable and resilient whilst avoiding substantial investment costs. To maintain the performance of critical WDN infrastructure, more proactive – “smart” data-driven – management has become a necessity. Ideally, extensive monitoring and rapid decision-making can be used to prevent failures rather than retroactively responding to them.

The UoM research has been critical in moving the industry toward this goal. Initially the research showed the spatio-temporal resolution of existing data was insufficient as a reliable representation of the network. This confirmed existing monitoring equipment was neither designed for the specific environmental settings it was used in, nor to function as part of an extensive network. The UoM research initially developed extensive, cost-effective monitoring instrumentation. Subsequent research addressed the ongoing knowledge constraints, turning the collected data into the required understanding to proactively manage WDNs.

Pathway to impact

Salamander and UoM provided research which brought HydraClam® and ChloroClam® to market in 2003 [1]. This research demonstrated the utility of products and embedded technology into industry/regulators through collaborative trials with industry, and workshops [3,4]. In parallel with this, the HydraClam® and ChloroClam® instruments evolved into separate sensor packages around a central Clam control telemetry unit.

Iterative interaction between Salamander and UoM research has maximised the potential benefit arising from this research by enabling the product to be continually refined, both creating and developing a new market.

Reach and significance of the impact

Revenue generation from sales and licensing of Clam technology

The HydraClam® and ChloroClam® products allow continual monitoring and management of water quality [A], and have been sold by Salamander since 2003. Within this current REF period, HydraClam® and ChloroClam® have been licensed (globally) to Evoqua plc (divested from Siemens Water Technologies), generating royalties of GBP2,000,000 for Salamander [B]. HydraClam® and ChloroClam® have become well-established in the Australia-Pacific (APAC) market: since 2015, sales of 300 units to over 50 water companies has generated approximately AUD3,000,000 revenue (GBP1,650,000, November 2020) for Evoqua [C].

Establishment and development of a new market for network instrumentation

Through the creation of HydraClam® and ChloroClam®, the underpinning research [1-5] has directly stimulated demand and shaped a new market for network-wide instrumentation, which “ only came into existence with the advent of the Clam products and continues to be dominated by their Chloroclam in APAC” [C]. Having established a market for water quality monitoring instrumentation, the ongoing research collaboration between UoM and Salamander highlighted Clam technology could be used to proactively manage the network [B]. Salamander confirm that this “ potentially lucrative market [by Salamander] attracted competition, particularly from [Analytical Technologies Inc] ATi” [B].

ATi are a globally leading manufacturer and supplier of electrochemical analytical monitoring instrumentation, focused on water quality. In 2020, ATi had a global annual turnover of USD30,000,000, and attributed 37% of their business to the UK market [D]. ATi have confirmed that they became aware of the HydraClam® and ChloroClam® products in 2007; and in 2008, invested in developing their own products (NephNet® and MetriNet®) [D], that follow the unprotected parts of the UoM-informed Salamander design. Since 2013, ATi have sold 700 Nephnet, 600 Metrinet and 300 Chlornet units in the UK and Australia [D], (at GBP5000, 8000, 3000 respectively) totalling GBP9,200,000 in sales. This reinforces the increased demand for extensive monitoring in WDN.

Since 2019, Salamander and ATi have collaborated on products to jointly benefit from the Clams and ATi sensor solutions [D]. ATi’s Executive Director has confirmed that “ Boult’s research and the Clam products his team have developed, continues to help and without a doubt contributes to [ATi’s] ability to produce appropriate water quality instrumentation for [their] strategic goal to expand [their] market share and increase revenue.” [D].

As of June 2020, ATi have confirmed 50 orders of the new NephNet/Salamander configurations by UK water companies, and that upon annual servicing, the 800 units already in use by UK WSPs will be retrofitted with Salamander Clams [D]. ATi have confirmed that “ the quality and the perception of water quality to the paying customers is now a top priority to most UK water companies” [D]. Further, ATi estimate that UK water companies will invest around GBP7,000,000 in Smart water quality sensors across the seventh Asset Management Period (AMP7, 2020-2025) [D].

Changing working practises of water supply companies – enabling the transition to ‘Smart Water Management’ through data integration and machine learning

Clam telemetry has enabled the level of data integration necessary to transition to ‘Smart Water Management’. As confirmed by SafeGroup Automation (SGA) – a leading Australian provider of control systems engineering - “ the availability of this effective hardware and the high-resolution data it produces is a critical part of opening up the possibility of more proactive “smart” management” [C]. Specifically, as SGA note, in combination with “ the design of the Clam telemetry [which] will allow it to be easily integrated into the large SCADA systems that SGA manage for large water companies – and potentially other businesses – across APAC” [C].

In early 2018, Siemens UK secured funding to create a new Centre of Competence for accelerating and embedding digitalisation in the water and wastewater sector [E]. Through a secure cloud based Internet of Things application, water companies would be able to better meet stringent regulatory targets and manage their network infrastructure more efficiently. In 2018, based on his role in the Clam research [1,3,4], Gaffney was appointed onto the Siemens UK team [E].

Siemens UK developed MindSphere – an industrial cloud-based platform for collection, storage and use of data. MindSphere resulted from significant strategic investment by Siemens UK, who have targeted the water industry to be early adopters of this technology MindSphere enables automated data analytics to turn the data (produced from Clam style telemetry) into knowledge, operational control and management decisions [E]. Siemens UK have confirmed “ fundamental aspects of the applications targeted at water quality management are based on the underpinning research done at University of Manchester into the use of extensive monitoring” [E].

From inception, Clams and Clamnet® were designed to meet the need for increased spatial and temporal resolution – large numbers of units and large amounts of data – a large number of units cannot physically be readily visited. Also the amount of data and datasets can grow quickly, so uploading and accessing data must be scalable. Siemens UK have selected Clams and Clamnet® to be their favoured remote telemetry unit (RTU) to connect sensors to – Clams are currently the only MindSphere-enabled devices that can be used in low-cost extensive water quality monitoring and are therefore a fundamental element of these developing solutions [E]. In relation to MindSphere, Salamander state that “ the quality of the input data and the machine learning outputs are direct results of the University [of Manchester] research” [B]. Siemens have confirmed that as of July 2020 the first 7 MindSphere enabled Clams were installed with a UK water company as a pilot for a larger programme monitoring clean water service reservoirs [E]. Further evidence that Clams are enabling “smart” water management, globally, is the contracted provision for 60 of the latest version of Clams, at an Australian water company serving 1,750,000 customers [C].

Improving service provision in refugee camps

In 2016, Boult worked with Save the Children – a major international aid and development agency operating in over 100 countries, to demonstrate the utility of extensive monitoring in WDNs in fragile contexts (refugee camps) [5] [F]. Ill-health consequences of failures in chlorination in these contexts are very high compared to well-founded WDNs. ChloroClams were deployed in several refugee camps in Iraq, housing 20,000 people [F]. The trials demonstrated that monitoring devices that require no infrastructure – such as power and telephone lines – and minimal user input, are capable of operating successfully in these environments, and that these devices provide measurements at a temporal resolution that enables any inadequacies in chlorine dosing regimes to be exposed [F].

As a result of these trials, Save the Children have identified further opportunities to use ChloroClam®: ChloroClams® on site at a Bangladeshi camp (housing approximately 850,000 people) [F]. Further, “ the potential of this type of monitoring is now being factored in as a tool in future [Water, Sanitation and Hygiene] activities at Save the Children” [F].

New geological understanding reducing risk and uncertainty to improve economic exploitation ...

Submitting institution: The University of Manchester
Unit of assessment: 7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type: Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

The oil and gas industry has benefited from increased success and efficiency in oil exploration and development through University of Manchester research. The industry is currently responsible for over 50% of global energy needs, and in 2020 was valued at USD86Trillion. Exploration wells range in cost from 10s to 100s million USD, and the risk associated with such investments has been reduced through better information and new research concepts that inform company decision making.

The understanding of outcrop and subsurface geology and interpretation of geophysical data, has been advanced by new data collected from northern Africa to develop evaluation models. The results have been utilised by 22 international oil companies (including Repsol, BP, and Petroceltic) to improve prediction of where to explore for oil and gas resources in North Africa, thus reducing uncertainty and risk, and also impacted the appraisal and development of oil and gas fields. This research has facilitated more targeted use of resources concerning multi-million-dollar decisions for exploration and development. This work has also built capacity within national government bodies in North Africa, through guided professional development and training of their geoscientists.

2. Underpinning research

In relation to oil extraction, many areas of North Africa are under-explored and have energy poverty, or only have geological studies of small areas, with limited research that lacks larger scale regional context. The North Africa Research Group (NARG) at the University of Manchester (UoM) has been undertaking geological research since 2000 to address this limitation. The NARG comprises collaboration between UoM (the lead partner and where most research is undertaken), Heriot Watt University and TuDelft University. It was founded in 2000 and is led by Prof Jonathan Redfern at UoM, and collaborates with international academic and industry partners. This enables industry sponsors to ensure the research is of direct value and benefit.

The UoM-led research has two distinct scales:

Regional basin-scale (>> 10km):

This body of work evaluates basin structural evolution and depositional systems over a regional scale (defined as far greater than 10km), based on combined structural and sedimentological analysis, including the evolution of sediments during burial and diagenesis. The research involves biostratigraphic studies that have resulted in new stratigraphic frameworks [1] with implications for regional correlation. This research has also advanced understanding on the structural evolution of basins, including developing new models to interpret the complex control salt structures that affect both sedimentation and trapping configurations [2]. These models address the mechanism that controlled the salt geometry and evolution, with important implications for mapping sea floor topography at the time of reservoir deposition. New conceptual models have also been delivered for basin evolution and fluid migration and mapping depositional systems and palaeogeographies across NW Africa [3]. This yielded new models for the timing of hydrocarbon charge and its impact on reservoir quality, explaining the distribution of good and poor reservoirs in the Ain Tsila field, a model that has wider implications for similar inverted basin settings. UoM research also developed models for key depositional systems, with implications for organic enrichment of mudrocks, to enable the prediction of regional distribution of hydrocarbon source rocks [4], as well as modelling the characterisation of reservoir rocks [3, 5] and their porosity and permeability distribution [3, 6].

Field scale (1 to 10s of km):

This body of research determines the distribution and quality (porosity and permeability) of reservoir rocks that control the storage and flow of hydrocarbons in oil and gas fields. This is undertaken through geological analysis and imaging of outcrops, integrated with subsurface core and electrical log data, microscopic observation and low temperature geochemistry. UoM research generated models that predict reservoir distribution and quality [3, 5, 6]. For the first time, this enabled the reservoir properties of wells in the Ain Tsila field in Algeria to be predicted. This developed new concepts both for the evolution of the Ain Tsila structure, but also fluid flow within the basin and basin charge during exhumation.

3. References to the research

UoM authors are denoted in bold. Citation counts are from Web of Science (November 2020).

Luber, T.L., Bulot, L.G., Redfern, J., Nahim, M., Jeremiah, J., Simmons, M., Bodin, S., Frau, C., Bidgood, M. and Masrour, M. (2019) A revised chronostratigraphic framework for the Aptian of the Essaouira-Agadir Basin, a candidate type section for the NW African Atlantic Margin. Cretaceous Research, 93, p.292-317. DOI:10.1016/j.cretres.2018.09.007 (6 citations)
Muniz-Pichel, L., Huuse, M., Redfern, J., and Finch, E. (2019) The influence of base-salt relief, rift topography and regional events on salt tectonics offshore Morocco. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 103, 87-113, DOI: 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2019.02.007 (5 citations)
English, K. L., English, J. M., Bonnell, L. M., Redfern, J., Lander, R. H., Hollis, C., and Yahia Cherif, R. (2017) Controls on reservoir quality in exhumed basins – an example from the Ordovician sandstones, Illizi basin, Algeria. Marine and Petroleum Geology , 80, 203-227. DOI:10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2016.11.011 (8 citations)
Bodin, S., Fröhlich, S., Boutib, L., S Lahsini, S., and Redfern J. (2011) Early Toarcian Source-Rock Potential in the Central High Atlas Basin (Central Morocco): Regional Distribution and Depositional Model. Journal of Petroleum Geology 34 (4), 345-363. DOI:10.1111/j.1747-5457.2011.00509.x (25 citations)
Mader, K, N., Redfern, J., Ouataoui M. (2017) Sedimentology of the Essaouira Basin (Meskala Field) in context of regional sediment distribution patterns during upper Triassic pluvial events. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 130, 293-318 DOI: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2017.02.012 (5 citations)
Newport, R., Hollis, C., Bodin, S. and Redfern, J. (2017) Examining the interplay of climate and low amplitude sea-level change on the distribution and volume of massive dolomitisation: Zebbag Formation, Cretaceous, Southern Tunisia. The Depositional Record, 3(1), 38-59, DOI:10.1002/dep2.25 (3 citations)

4. Details of the impact

Context

Oil and gas exploration and development is economically important. It provides a critical source of global energy and chemical feedstock. In developing countries finding indigenous resources is a high priority given they often have severe energy poverty, and must use a significant proportion of their GDP to import oil and gas. In 2020, the industry was responsible for over 50% of global energy needs, with demand expected to remain at similar levels until 2030/40, even assuming an ambitious rate of energy transition to renewables. The industry is currently valued at USD86trillion. There is continued demand from oil companies to maximise the efficiency of operations and reduce risks of either drilling and not finding economic resources, or not being able to efficiently extract the maximum resource from a discovery.

Pathway to impact

NARG’s research includes both fundamental science and applied research to meet specific industry challenges. Companies that sponsor NARG, as well as collaborating government bodies, have direct access to this research through a restricted online portal [A]. Broad research aims are developed in collaboration with sponsors through regular steering group meetings to ensure the research addresses the most pressing user issues. Results are shared through technical presentations, workshops, field courses, and publications as well as the extensive NARG GIS database [B]. These data allow companies to recognise opportunities for exploration and ultimately to make decisions on where to drill exploration wells or whether they should downgrade areas for further work. The information also helps de-risk in-place volume and recoverable resource estimates and impacted field development planning, such as where to site wells to optimize field planning.

Impact on exploration – improvement to operational decisions and reduced financial risk

Regional fieldwork and integration with subsurface data, associated with data analysis of outcrop and subsurface samples, has enhanced regional models and aspects of key interval dating through improved biostratigraphy [1] and source rock development [5], both critical for any petroleum system evaluation. This has impacted on companies’ assessment of the prospectivity of acreage, by locating and characterizing potential hydrocarbon source rocks, and improving modelling of their thermal maturity and ability to generate oil or gas. Other examples of models derived from this research include better-defining ancient river systems, thus enabling improved accuracy in predicting the location and quality of sandstone reservoirs in the subsurface [4]. [Text removed for publication].

Exploration wells range in cost from 10s to 100s million USD, with overall exploration and development budgets in the order of 100s of million USD. Such investments are high risk, and the overall impact of this research was to successfully reduce this risk by providing better information on which companies would base their decisions.

The NARG web-based GIS database [B], which was developed in 2018 and incorporates the entire Group’s research outputs, allows an easily accessible and effective resource for corporate knowledge dissemination and facilitates improvements to operational decisions within the sponsor companies. This database was designed to allow geoscientists to confidently understand more the regional geology and characteristics of key reservoir or source intervals, aid subsurface predictions and reduce uncertainty. The research projects including [1] and [5], involved outcrop studies that enabled UoM to record direct field measurements that translated into modelled interpretations, to assist with operational decisions. This includes interpretations on depositional environments, thermo-chronology from logged sections, and new biostratigraphic faunal descriptions [1]. [Text removed for publication].

The data have been, and continue to be, used by companies to screen acreage and develop understanding of the prospectivity of basins and parts of basin, to develop new concepts for targets to drill, and evaluate risk and uncertainty during exploration and development, and appraisal strategies. [Text removed for publication].

Impact on oil field development – improved operating costs

The UoM field scale research of the Ain Tsila field (Morocco) assessed reservoir quality distribution and examined both regional and local controls using an integrated suite of digital and rock data [3]. [Text removed for publication]. As a result of this research, uncertainty of oil well performance was reduced, lowering the financial risk associated with otherwise drilling low productivity wells and thereby contributing to an increase in profitability.

Impact on national exploration capacity and delivery of training in North Africa

Through targeted engagement, NARG have built close collaboration with government agencies and universities in North Africa. Since 2002, UoM have regularly provided staff training and access to field-based courses and workshops, thus improving staff capability and competence to make decisions. In Morocco, there is a longstanding relationship between NARG and ONHYM [B], enabling knowledge exchange, research publications, and the new GIS Database [D], with 7 ONHYM staff directing attending training courses since 2013. This has had a continuing positive impact on national capacity to internally assess the petroleum potential of Morocco, improve their capability to undertake independent studies, and to critically assess work undertaken by international oil companies. In 2018, NARG commenced similar activities in Senegal with Petrosen, undertaking 1 workshop for industry and academia, and running a training programme at the University of Dakar (UCAD).

The development of new international regulatory standards deliver global engine emission ...

Submitting institution: The University of Manchester
Unit of assessment: 7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type: Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

The University of Manchester has developed research-led methods to quantify and standardise the measurement of non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) from aircraft engines, impacting an industry worth approximately USD10Billion per annum. These methods were adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to update aircraft emissions regulations, which affect local air quality across the globe. New international measurement and emission standards for large aircraft engines were introduced. This research enabled:

two new international standards for nvPM emissions measurement;
subsequent technical contribution and drafting of the ICAO regulatory documents; and
the introduction of nvPM mass and number concentration emission limits for new aircraft engines, to reduce global aviation soot.

2. Underpinning research

In 2009, ICAO recognised the requirement for a new metric and emissions standard for aircraft engines above 26.7 kN of thrust (the entire global commercial, non-propeller air fleet). This was driven by the need to address the environmental impact of the global air industry. Prior to this, standardised processes existed to measure both gaseous emissions (NO_x, HC, CO), and an outdated visibility metric called smoke number, but not for non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM, or soot) number and mass concentrations.

Research undertaken by Williams at the University of Manchester (UoM) formed an integral part of the body of work that informed these regulatory standards on emissions of nvPM. As an expert in aerosol measurement and aircraft emissions, Williams was instrumental in all stages of the research and provided key aerosol measurements, quantified the number and size data, and evaluated the aerosol losses and uncertainty in the systems.

The UoM research was funded by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) through a series of international programmes involving academic and industry partners (SAMPLE I-III, 2008-2014; EASA specialist support I–IV, 2014–2019).

The EASA funded research progressed through a series of key components needed to produce the standards:

Identification of suitable measurement technologies and sampling protocols

In 2010, the EASA funded SAMPLE team evaluated methods for measuring nvPM emissions from gas turbines in order to identify suitable technologies for emission measurement. Williams’ research activities in aerosol counting and sizing made a key contribution by providing equipment and analysis of the data contained in [1]. This research [1] identified that condensation particle counter (CPC) instruments proved highly robust tools for measuring aerosol number concentrations; and due to the much smaller scatter in data, were preferred over instruments that indirectly measured aerosol concentrations.

Validation of proposed methodologies and development of software and procedures for correcting data.

Following the identification of aerosol measurement technologies, research was undertaken to develop measurement strategies and methodologies to sample all gas turbine engines with >26.7 kN of thrust, whilst simultaneously developing software and procedures that quality-assure and correct the data collected [2]. All aerosol sampling systems are subject to particle losses, such as diffusional losses, electrostatic losses and thermophoretic losses, which are modelled and verified in the proposed standards. This involved testing the proposed nvPM sampling system in small scale combustor rigs and the exhaust of aircraft turbine engines [1,2].

Measurement of real engine emissions using the new methodology and data handling procedures, to allow ICAO to set appropriate current and future emission limits

In 2013, research progressed to develop the EU emission regulatory reference system that would provide data to ICAO to set appropriate emissions limits [3]. Engine manufacturers are required to ensure their own systems are compliant with one of three regulatory reference systems; there are three reference systems, and manufacturers must show equivalence to one (EU, North American and Switzerland).

A crucial part of the research was to determine the uncertainty in the sampling system and differences between the reference systems used by different aviation regulators (e.g. the US Federal Aviation Administration). Therefore, a comparison of the nvPM system with two other reference systems was needed [3,4]. This was to provide confidence that these reference systems deliver repeatable and comparable data when measuring the same engine at the same time, and to provide quantification of the measurement uncertainty for later modelling. The EU nvPM reference system, alongside the reference systems from North America and Switzerland, was tested against a range of engines to compare their performance. Williams’ research contributed expertise in aerosol counting and sizing to help validate the comparison of the reference system and to determine and model the losses in the proposed measurement standard [3].

Determination of uncertainties in the sampling framework and hence the values reported by engine manufacturers to ICAO

Throughout the SAMPLE projects, new understanding was generated around aerosol sampling loss and uncertainty modelling. From 2014, the research expanded into the losses and uncertainties in the proposed nvPM measurement methodology. Williams quantified the nvPM number and size data of real engines and evaluated the aerosol losses and uncertainty in the measurement systems [3,5]. This enabled bespoke loss and uncertainty models for the sampling system to be developed, which fed directly into the final recommended regulatory documentation.

3. References to the research

The research was published via International Standards, end of project technical reports, and peer reviewed journals, including one of the top journals in the field ( Environmental Science and Technology). The research has secured EUR496,000 of funding (EUR242,000 from EASA and EUR227,000 under the OMEGA ALFA scheme).

Petzold, A., Marsh, R., Johnson, M., Miller, M., Sevcenco, Y., Delhaye, D., Ibrahim, A., Williams, P. I., Bauer, H., Crayford, A., Bachalo, W. D., and Raper, D. (2011) Evaluation of methods for measuring particulate matter emissions from gas turbines, Environmental Science and Technology, 45(8), p3562 – 3568. DOI:10.1021/es103969v (Web of Science citation count 34 ;November 2020)
Marsh, R., Sevcenco, Y., Walters, D., Williams, P. I., Petzold, A., Bowen, P., Wang, J., and Lister, D. SAMPLE III: Contribution to aircraft engine PM certification requirement and standard Second Specific Contract– Final Report, 2012. https://www.easa.europa.eu/document-library/research-projects/easa2010fc10-sc02
Crayford, A., Johnson, M., Llamedo, A., Williams, P. I., Madden, P., Marsh, R., and Bowen, P. SAMPLE III: Contribution to aircraft engine PM certification requirement and standard Third Specific Contract– Final Report, 2013. https://www.easa.europa.eu/document-library/research-projects/easa2010fc10-sc03
Lobo,P., Durdina, L., Brem, B.T., Crayford, A., Johnson, M., Smallwood, G., Siegerist, F., Williams, P.I., Black, E., Llamedo, A., Thomson, K., Trueblood, B. Yu, Z., Hagen, D., Whitefield, P., Miake-Lye, R., and Rindlisbacher, T. (2020) Comparison of standardized sampling and measurement reference systems for aircraft engine non-volatile particulate matter emissions, Journal of Aerosol Science, 145, DOI: 10.1016/j.jaerosci.2020.105557.
Crayford, A., Johnson, M., Sevcenco, Y. A., Williams, P. I., Madden, P., Marsh, R., and Bowen, P. J. SAMPLE III: Contribution to aircraft engine PM certification requirement and standard Fifth Specific Contract– Final Report, 2014. https://www.easa.europa.eu/document-library/research-projects/easa2010fc10-sc05

4. Details of the impact

Context

Prior to this work, particulate emissions regulations from aircraft engines in the Landing and Take-Off (LTO) cycle were last updated in the 1970s. This previous regulation, based on a metric called “smoke number” (used as a measure of visibility), was not sufficient to address modern local air quality issues affecting human health [A]. In 2009, ICAO called for a new metric and emissions standard for engines rated above 26.7 kN of thrust. ICAO commissioned The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) Aircraft Engine Gas and Particulate Emissions Measurement Committee (E-31) to develop this international standard. In order for regulatory standards for nvPM mass and number emissions to be defined (and thus support future global efforts to improve air quality and public health, as part of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals), a standardised sampling and measurement methodology was required for aircraft engine emissions certification tests.

Pathways to impact

Williams became a key member of the EASA SAMPLE project as a result of his early work and reputation on characterising the chemical and physical properties of aerosol particles. Williams’ role was to collaborate on the technical design of a new nvPM sampling system and the production of a methodology to standardise nvPM measurement across the industry [B], and provide input to the SAE E-31. Following this, Williams was appointed a voting member of the SAE E-31 Committee, enabling him to help develop and subsequently approve the standards for nvPM measurement and reporting [C]. This position enabled Williams’ to directly contribute to the writing of the official ICAO regulatory documentation [B,D].

i) Technological impacts: new technical standards and revised industry regulation

Williams’ research in the SAMPLE project [2,3,5] was an essential component to the development of two new international standards, and to updating the associated regulatory documents, which all large engine manufacturers must now use to report their nvPM emissions to ICAO. These are:

ARP 6320: Procedure for the Continuous Sampling and Measurement of Non-Volatile Particulate Matter Emissions from Aircraft Turbine Engines [E] (2016)
ARP 6481: Procedure for the Calculation of Non-Volatile Particulate Matter Sampling and Measurement System Losses and System Loss Correction Factors [F] (2019)
Contribution to the writing of ICAO regulatory documents Annex 16, Vol II, Appendices 7 & 8 [B,D]

Within the regulations, Williams’ research was a key component to the setting of the new nvPM emission index limits (emission indices: corresponding to amount of nvPM per kg of fuel burnt) that ICAO approved. These emissions indices were for both aerosol mass of nvPM per kg of fuel burnt (EI_m) and reported number of nvPM per kg of fuel burnt (EI_n).

As corroborated by the EASA Environmental Protection Officer, for ARP6320, Williams’ research [1-5] “ contributed to the design and build of the first prototype system, and ultimately to the development of the EASA mobile nvPM system…and developed a software package for EASA which mirrors the functionality of the software tools supported in the ARPs [enabling Williams] to contribute directly to ARP 6481.” [B] . Without this approved standardised measuring procedure, a regulated measurement standard would not have been possible.

In addition to underpinning the technology and methods for size and number concentration measurements, Williams’ research directly contributed to validating the line losses and uncertainties in the sampling system [A,B]. In 2016, drawing on his work in [5] and as a result of his role on the SAE E-31 committee, Williams identified a fundamental flaw in the error analysis of the uncertainty calculations, where variables were being treated independently, but were in fact co-varying [B]. Failure to correctly account for the uncertainties would impact ICAO’s ability to set realistic goals for reducing the emission standards. In addition, it would impact the emission inventories that scientists and air quality regulators use to assess the impacts on local air quality. Williams’ model of the engine exit plane EI_n and EI_m (as developed as part of the work reported in [5] and subsequent EASA projects funded between 2014 and 2019), is currently the only full model in existence, and predicted smaller uncertainties than other approaches adopted within E-31.

Engine manufacturers are required to follow the ICAO Annex for reporting and emission standard compliance when they submit to ICAO for approval of the emissions data they record during engine certification tests. 192 countries are signed up to ICAO, and these new technological standards ensure that from 2020, all in-production engines over 26.7 kN of thrust (all commercial jet engines, excluding turboprop and small turbofan engines) operating in ICAO signatory national airspaces must conform to these standards of reporting EI_m and EI_n, limits.

ii) Environmental impacts: improved regulation standards leading to reduced emissions

Williams’ work [2,3,5] in contributing to the measurement standards for measuring nvPM were fundamental in ICAO determining the limits of nvPM permissible by aircraft engines. As stated in the summary of [5], “measurements were carried out at the exhaust of Rolls-Royce aircraft engines simultaneously with the EASA and Rolls-Royce nvPM systems for comparison. The data obtained will be used to start to fill in the nvPM data base for the setting of future ICAO mass and number nvPM standards”. These limits were approved by ICAO in February 2019 [G]. New regulatory mass concentrations were enforced in January 2020 for in-production engines, and ICAO mandated that EI_n and EI_m have to be reported, as per ARP6320. From 2023, the mass concentration regulation will be replaced with the EI_n and EI_m, metrics.

This new standard meant ICAO completed all main environmental standards for the certification of aircraft and engines; namely for noise, local air quality (NO_x, HC, CO, nvPM) and climate change (CO₂). As of February 2019, the aviation industry was the only sector with environmental mandatory certification requirements at the global level for the operation of its equipment [G]. In addition, the new EI_n and EI_m metrics are summed over the entire LTO cycle, which means aviation is truly limiting emissions and not just concentrations [H]. Furthermore, from January 2023, all new aircraft engine designs will need to be certified to ICAO standards, but with a reduction of approximately 30% for both aerosol number and mass EI [H], thus greatly contributing to reduced global aviation soot emissions, and concentrations, especially near to major airports.

These emission standards will ensure a gradual reduction in the nVPM emissions of aircraft as the levels set by ICAO are periodically adjusted to reduce emissions [B]. Aircraft operate globally - hence the environmental benefits of this standard are global in reach, improving air quality for communities surrounding airports served by commercial jets. [Text removed for publication]. Without a standardised means to accurately measure nvPM engine emission samples [as now provided by William’s contribution to Annex 16 Volume II], this setting and enforcement of limits would not have been possible.

iii) Economic impacts: commercial adoption of engine specification driving new products

This research has informed the environmental regulation of a globally important industry that is valued in excess of USD100,000,000,000. ICAO regulation cycles (and their standards) are typically in place for at least a decade. Failure to report as per the new ICAO regulation on engine emissions, or to meet the emission standards themselves, would prevent engine manufacturers from selling their engines. Therefore ensuring engines meet regulation and are operational is imperative for manufacturers.

To put this into context, two of the largest engine manufacturers are Rolls Royce, and GE Aviation. In 2019, Rolls Royce reported ‘Large Engine’ sales of GBP2,500,000,000 [I] (up from GBP1,600,000,000 in 2016) (approximately 31% of their underlying revenue). Likewise, GE Aviation 2019 annual report [J] gives a combined sales and service of USD24,200,000,000. Using a conservative estimate that ‘Large Engine’ sales at GE contributes 10-20% of this revenue, the value of new engine sales that have to meet the updated regulations is in the range USD2,400,000,000 to 4,800,000,000 (since sales figures are not reported separately).

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The development of new international regulatory standards deliver global engine emission ...

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Identification of suitable measurement technologies and sampling protocols

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Determination of uncertainties in the sampling framework and hence the values reported by engine manufacturers to ICAO

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i) Technological impacts: new technical standards and revised industry regulation

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