Impact case study database

The development of modelling tools, statistical techniques and collation of observational datasets has enabled the Met Office and international agencies to make GLOMAP part of their strategic programme of model development. This has led to its use in the UK climate projections, the development of a new UK Earth System model (UKESM1), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which is the global climate-modelling programme that informs climate policy.

Adoption of GLOMAP as a core component of Met Office strategy across climate and weather

Leeds’ development of GLOMAP has changed the Met Office strategic approach to the modelling of aerosols. Following GLOMAP’s implementation and successful testing in research versions of the Met Office Unified Model (UM) from 2008, the Met Office Aerosol Strategy Review in 2013 [A] proposed a coordinated approach to aerosol modelling across climate prediction, weather prediction and air quality. *“In 2013 the Met Office was actively trying to support four different aerosol representations used across our modelling systems. The move to adopt the University of Leeds-developed GLOMAP representation was driven primarily by the recognised scientific superiority of GLOMAP to better capture processes that are important for accurate climate projections (principally, GLOMAP simulates aerosol particle size and number, replacing a much simpler in-house model that simulated just the aerosol mass)” [B].

The strategy was reviewed by the Met Office Scientific Advisory Committee (MOSAC), which exists to evaluate the ability of the Met Office's research plans to meet its customer's requirements. The strategy concluded: “The objective of the Met Office and University partners should be to implement GLOMAP in full and simplified versions across all UM [Unified Model] configurations.” [A].

In 2015, the national Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP) between NERC and the Met Office initiated the UK Earth System Modelling project UKESM1 choosing the aerosol component provided by GLOMAP. GLOMAP was subsequently implemented in the atmospheric configuration of the UK Met Office climate model (GC3.1) in 2017 and released as part of the Earth system model (UKESM1) in 2019. “ The GLOMAP code is one of the largest components of the climate model to have been provided by external partners” [B].

GLOMAP replaced a much simpler aerosol model (CLASSIC) developed by the Met Office that had been part of the climate model since 2006. The Met Office’s documentation paper of the atmosphere configuration of the climate model (Walters et al., 2019) concludes that the Global Atmosphere model (version 7) includes *“significant structural improvements that increase the complexity and improve the fidelity of climate simulations, namely the UKCA GLOMAP-mode aerosol scheme…” [C]

Leeds’ research on cloud microphysics and aerosols [6] allowed the Met Office to state in their 2016-2021 Science Strategy that a “…fully coupled aerosol and cloud microphysics scheme will be developed” …which “builds on important developments in simulating and predicting aerosol concentrations” … “This will cement a common approach across weather and climate modelling and will enable a more robust assessment of the indirect effects of aerosol emissions on climate change through their influence on cloud radiative properties.” [D].

To achieve its strategy, the Met Office undertook an organisational restructuring in order to create a dedicated team for aerosol modelling, with a new Head of Aerosol Modelling and a new scientist post within the cross-Office Foundation Science rather than being within the Hadley Centre climate team: “We appointed a new manager to oversee the continued implementation of GLOMAP, and expanded the remit of the cloud modelling group to work on aerosol (an increase from 4 to 6 dedicated personnel working on clouds and aerosols), creating an aerosol and cloud microphysics team.” [B]

Assuring the reliability of climate model projections in national and international assessments

The UK Government is obliged to contribute to international climate modelling efforts. This effort is undertaken through the Hadley Centre Climate Programme reporting to the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). As an integrated component of the Unified Model this includes the underpinning science from GLOMAP: *“The current CMIP6 programme uses GLOMAP aerosol representation. This represents a large change to the previous CMIP5 contribution, enabling the UK’s climate model to tackle aerosol effects on clouds, recognised as a large uncertainty in climate prediction, more accurately than before.” [B]. In addition, Leeds’ underpinning research directly supported the Met Office’s task of assuring the performance of the climate and Earth system models prior to their release. Leeds researchers provided a bespoke and extensive synthesis of aerosol measurement data to the Met Office [5] for model evaluation [C]. Furthermore, vital model adjustments implemented by the Met Office [E] that improved the simulation of historical climate, were based on Leeds’ underpinning research on natural aerosols [3] and model uncertainty analysis [4] [B].

As part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) tasked the Met Office with producing a set of probabilistic climate projections that show how the 21^st Century climate may evolve. The projections were created over several years at the Met Office based on a process involving the assessment of many uncertain model parameters. Leeds researchers directly influenced UKCP18 [F] by selecting the aerosol-related parameters based on an extensive body of work on uncertainty quantification in the Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project [5] and through development of GLOMAP: “To create this dataset, climate prediction simulations at greater than normal spatial resolution using GLOMAP, were carried out to drive the high resolution UK simulations used in UKCP-18. These high resolution simulations employed a simplified aerosol scheme using parameters derived from the aerosol representation in the GLOMAP climate projections.” [B]. UKCP18 climate projection data [G] is available for user groups to download and use and underpins strategic climate change planning by the UK government, local authorities and businesses [B].

International adoption of GLOMAP

International adoption of GLOMAP has been via the Unified Model Partnership: *“The Met Office has world-wide partners that use the latest configurations of this model for weather and climate prediction. Partners using the Unified Model, including GLOMAP configurations, to provide deliverables to their respective governments include National Meteorological Services in Australia (BoM) and the Republic of Korea (KMA), as well as national weather and climate research institutes in New Zealand (NIWA), India (NCMRWF) and Australia (CSIRO)” [B]

The Director of the Climate Science Centre at CSIRO stated that *“GLOMAP is the premier atmosphere aerosol science model of the CSIRO Climate Science Centre (CSC)”… “CSIRO and the Climate Science Centre are now routinely using GLOMAP for air quality research, strategic air quality management projects, and short-term forecasting for the Australian state and federal governments.” [H]. CSIRO made the decision to couple the GLOMAP model to their in-house Chemical Transport Model (C-CTM) due to *“the quality of the science built into GLOMAP, together with the computational efficiency of the software” [H]

As a specific example, C-CTM-GLOMAP formed an important component in assessment of the impact of shipping emissions on population health in Sydney, New South Wales [H]. The study [I] was one of three lines of evidence considered by a government-industry stakeholder workshop in 2015 that focussed on the public health impacts of shipping emissions. The New South Wales (NSW) Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) subsequently implemented legislation to reduce emissions by requiring the use of low sulphur fuel and an air quality monitoring system was introduced [H]. Subsequent inspections have found very good compliance with the NSW requirements [J].

The research was first developed and applied in Leeds in 2010, and has been applied subsequently in multiple cities and local authorities around the UK and internationally.

Climate action, governance and investment in Leeds

Leeds is the UK’s 4^th largest city (population 780,000). The research was the main form of evidence that guided Leeds’ climate action plans from 2012, when the research was first published, to 2019, when a climate emergency was declared, and 2020, when significant policy changes and investments were made [A]. Since 2013, the research has “helped create the evidence base to secure approximately GBP12,500,000 of grant funding in a GBP45,000,000 district heating scheme which is currently supplying low carbon heat to approximately 2,000 households across the city” [A] . This scheme is reducing carbon emissions by 11,000t a year and tackling fuel poverty and fire/carbon monoxide risks in those homes [B]. In March 2015, it provided the evidence that underpinned the creation of a GBP26,000,000 Domestic Energy Efficiency Programme in the wider Leeds City Region that has retrofitted 5,558 especially fuel poor households to the end of 2019/20 [A], thereby addressing inequality and improving public health.

In 2019, the research: “provided the main evidence base underpinning Leeds’ declaration of a climate emergency in March 2019 [C] *, committing the city to work towards net zero emissions by 2030” [A], thus GBP270,000,000 was committed to a transport investment programme to promote public transport and active travel and the up-take of low emissions vehicles across the city, to be completed by 2021 [A]. In 2020, it also led to the cancellation of a proposed GBP100,000,000 link road, with support switching to building a new railway station and park and ride scheme [A]. It has also “provided the model and analysis … to shape how the Council invests GBP80,000,000 a year of capital funding in the low carbon retrofit of the Council’s 55,000 council homes across the city.” [A].

The research led directly to the creation of the Leeds Climate Commission in 2017 [D], an innovative independent body that builds capacities for climate action in the city, which is critical when there is little resource and no statutory responsibility for them to do so. The Commission draws together key actors from approximately 50 public, private and third sector organisations from across the city to drive, guide and track progress towards climate targets in the city. Directly informed by the research, the Leeds Climate Commission also ran a citizens’ jury in 2019 [E], “whose recommendations have helped to shape the city’s response to the climate emergency” [A]. The Leeds Climate Commission has been instrumental in building capacities for climate action and in supporting Leeds City Council in its climate action policies, programmes and plans. The Leader of the Council states: “Research led by Professor Gouldson has directly led to the establishment of an independent Climate Commission in the city, which has drawn together actors from the public, private and third sectors across the city to support, guide and track progress towards both low carbon and climate resilient targets”, [A], and in its White Paper Motion of March 2019, Leeds City Council states that *“through collaboration with the Leeds Climate Commission, it is now one of the leading local authorities in the country in this area. This is underlined by the unprecedented scale of investment prioritised by this Council towards carbon reduction measures” [C]. The Council identifies the benefits of “participating in innovative and enterprising approaches to public administration and governance that other local authorities may then seek to emulate” [A].

Climate action in cities and regions across the UK

The Leeds research team have replicated the research methodology developed and applied in Leeds to provide detailed evidence to underpin the adoption and delivery of climate action plans and/or climate commissions across UK cities and regions. Leeds researchers published carbon accounts and summary climate action plans for every local authority in the UK in 2018. In 2019/20, detailed accounts and plans fed directly into the climate policies and action plans of 45 local authorities across the UK. In Belfast for example, the preparation of a climate action plan “had a transformative effect on Belfast’s work on climate change - both at a city-wide level, and within Belfast City Council… and on the city’s Innovation and Inclusive Growth Commission… This will ensure that [the research] continues to impact on the city’s economic strategy through this decade.” [F]. In Surrey, the regional carbon calculations produced by Leeds researchers formed the main item of evidence underpinning the Surrey Climate Change Strategy [G], thereby directly informing 19 carbon reduction targets and 164 other climate action areas for the county [H]. In York, the research led to the preparation of a new climate action plan, to the establishment of a new Climate Commission, to new planning policies requiring new buildings to be zero carbon, to the development of a ‘blue and green’ nature-based resilience strategy, and to a revised low carbon transport plan for the city [I].

International influence

Internationally, the research has been replicated to support and guide climate action in cities in China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rwanda, Peru and Brazil [J]. The Coalition for Urban Transitions (CUT), states that the Leeds researchers: “…have then been able to scale-up their work to provide robust assessments of the investment needs and economic returns from low carbon urban development for over 800 cities worldwide. These cities are home to over half of the world’s population and are responsible for around three quarters of the world’s GHG emissions.” [J]. Through the Global Commission on Economy and Climate and the associated CUT, Leeds research was cited in a statement by world-leaders published in advance of the UN’s climate negotiations in Paris in 2015 [J], with the statement including Leeds research findings that “investing in sustainable cities could save around USD17 trillion globally by 2050. Investing in energy efficiency could boost cumulative economic output globally by USD18 trillion by 2035 and create jobs” [K]. Through this statement, and through research presented in Global Commission on Economy and Climate’s 2014 report (Better Growth, Better Climate) and its 2015 report (Seizing the Global Opportunity), Leeds research also “directly enabled [the Commission] *to provide robust evidence and a compelling economic case for climate action in the world’s cities” as inputs to the discussions that led to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change [J].

This research also helped to “ensure that the international climate funds administered by the UK Dept. for International Development (DfID) and for Business, Energy, Innovation and Skills (BEIS), as well as the German and Swedish environment ministries, focussed significant parts of their development assistance on enabling national governments in the global south to adopt and deliver climate friendly national urban plans” [J].

Partnership between researchers at Leeds and the UK Met Office has facilitated the sustained translation of research on African weather systems, as detailed at the end of this section, into improvements to the global (low-resolution) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and the regional (high-resolution (CP)) “Tropical Africa” (TA4) model being used operationally by African national weather services to deliver public weather forecasting services.

Model Implementation by African Weather Services

At the time of submission, 17 of the 53 World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) listed African national weather services are using the Met Office models on a regular basis (at least daily on average); this usage is evidenced in model data access statistics provided by the Met Office [A]. In total, 1196 users from 43 countries have accessed the models from 2019 - 2020. Detailed analysis of model usage for two countries has been undertaken as part of the SWIFT project. SWIFT has pioneered the use of weather forecast “testbed” events in Africa, where researchers worked alongside forecasters from the African weather centres to test the Tropical Africa Model in real time.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD [B]) and Senegalese Weather Service (ANACIM [C]) are using the Met Office’s Tropical Africa model as part of their daily short-range forecasts of severe weather. “Following the SWIFT testbed, KMD has continued to use the Tropical Africa model in our severe weather forecasts (which are shared across East Africa through SWFP [the WMO’s Severe Weather Forecasting Programme] *). The model has given KMD forecasters much greater confidence in the details of the location and timing of heavy rains, which are critical to our forecast users.” [B] . Our work has also underpinned several instances in which the Tropical Africa Model enabled KMD to make accurate high-impact weather forecasts, leading to successful interventions: “Forecasts based on the Tropical Africa model have been used to warn the public and to alert the search and rescue authorities. It has resulted in the evacuation of the people affected by landslides and mudslides in western Kenya, in West Pokot on 23rd November, 2019 and Marakwet counties, as well as during the flooding on Lake Victoria and in Budulangi on 29th May, 2020.”” and “ *Forecasts from the model have also been used in successful guidance provided by KMD to the regional task team brought together by the Kenyan government to tackle the locust outbreaks which occurred late in 2019.” [B].

In Senegal, ANACIM are delivering forecasts using the Tropical Africa model: *“This model has much better performance for representation of intense rainfall over our region, both in spatial resolution (4km enables us to predict rainfall on the scale which matters to forecast users) and in terms of forecast accuracy” [C]. The improved forecasts are communicated to millions of people in Senegal [C], Kenya [B] and 15 other countries, enabling them to protect lives and livelihoods.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) is utilising the same high-resolution regional model developed and supported by the UK Met Office, which is shared with the 16 national meteorological offices in the southern Africa region [D]. Operationally this is used as part of national severe weather forecasts and at the Aviation Weather Centre at O.R. Tambo International Airport. Evaluation of this model [E] “… *shows considerable improvement in the prediction of convective storms, relative to global model simulations.*” [D].

Forecaster Training and Practice

Use of the improved NWP models in African forecasting has been accelerated by new forecaster training resources in National Weather Services and in African university degree programmes. Parker led an international process of knowledge exchange (2006 to 2013), resulting in a training guide for operational forecasters; “ Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters’ Handbook” [F]. The Handbook has been translated into French (2018), and >300 copies have been distributed by the Met Office and Météo-France to 20 of the 50 African national weather services, 5 African Regional Training Centres and the 10 tropical African universities offering meteorological degrees. *“This book has become an essential resource for ANACIM forecasters and our community in Africa more widely. We have copies of the book in English and French, and they are kept in our operational forecast office where forecasters consult them every day.” [C]. SWIFT developed training materials on the practical use of NWP based on the methods described in the Forecasters’ Handbook and developed new visualisation software, to enable trainees to work hands-on with images generated from NWP. In February 2020, the WMO Regional Training Centre in Oshodi, Lagos, delivered training using our new software to 28 forecasters from the main weather forecast centres of Nigeria, including Nigeria’s 4 international airports [G] (which are among the busiest in Africa, serving more than 10 million passengers per annum). At KNUST, a new undergraduate module using our software was introduced into the undergraduate curriculum in 2019, to train 80 undergraduate students per annum [H] in practical use of NWP outputs and has become part of the formal ongoing syllabus for the course.

Informing Numerical Weather Prediction at the UK Met Office

Integration of the research into Met Office model improvement has been supported by joint “Process Evaluation Groups” (PEGs). Birch (Leeds & formerly Met Office 2013-2015) co-chaired the Africa PEG alongside the Manager of Regional Systems Evaluation at the Met Office (former PGR at Leeds). The research has informed the representation of physical processes within model code, and the selection of different model configurations and domains. The Met Office have said that: “…sustained contribution and expertise of the group at Leeds on NWP modelling for Africa has influenced how we use and interpret our modelling systems, enabled the development of better tools to evaluate model output, the development of new code that improves models and the quality of the system, reducing key systematic errors over Africa and improving the accuracy of operational forecasts. Recognizing the value of the Leeds research we took the step of embedding staff within the department [at Leeds] *to further facilitate the pull through of the Leeds research into our modelling systems and their use.*” [I]

In 2017, the Met Office made a commitment to develop a new “cold-pool” parametrisation scheme [I], (as part of a major NERC-Met Office investment to develop the new convective parametrisation, named CoMorph, influenced by [1]). The research also influenced the model’s improved representation of dust, by demonstrating the value of prognostic representation of dust uplift [7, I]. “ *These improvements while critical for Africa stretch to regions beyond Africa such as in Asian-Australian, East Asian and North American Monsoon systems and in other dust generation regions of the globe (e.g. Tibetan Plateau, Australia), impacting key partners in India, Australia, China and South East Asia.” [I]

Specifically, these collaborations have shaped the design and accelerated the development of a Tropical Africa Model at 4.4km resolution. “The Leeds group have been at the forefront in evaluating these [convection-permitting] *models in the context of African weather systems” “...with key improvements in the prediction of high impact precipitation events. This research helped to define the requirements for convection permitting models over Africa and accelerate the development of a Tropical Africa model at 4.4km which became operational in September 2018 and is serving data to numerous African countries on a daily basis.” [I, A]

Influencing the implementation of the Paris international climate agreement

In December 2015, the Paris agreement (signed by 196 nations) called for a Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C in order to address policy options and solutions in response to the agreement. The publication of the SR1.5 in October 2018 employed extensive calculations made by Leeds researchers using the FaIR v1.3 model for Chapters 1 and 2 of the report, which fed directly into statements within the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) [A]. Smith performed calculations for SPM Figure 1, and Forster acted as a drafting author of the SPM. The calculations undertaken with the FaIR v1.3 model at Leeds contributed essential quantitative information within the SPM. Specifically, this was the committed warming level from current emissions, the estimated time left before temperatures exceed 1.5°C warming, the estimated time when emissions would need to decline to zero, and the remaining carbon budget (Headlines A1, A2.2, C1 C1.3, Figures SPM1 and SPM2) [A, B]. Forster played an important role in presenting the remaining carbon budget and the underpinning methodology to international delegates, at a meeting in South Korea in October 2018, an important step in securing SPM approval [B].

The IPCC Co-Chair stated that *“…new methodologies and knowledge developed by the University of Leeds (Forster and Smith) has provided major contributions to the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (2018).”…“The new FaIR simple emission‐based impulse response and carbon cycle model (developed by Leeds) has been used systematically in Chapter 2 of this report to develop a classification of mitigation pathways building on estimates of atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and global temperature outcomes until 2100. Compared to the method used in the IPCC AR5 report, and which relied on only one such model (MAGICC), the approach used in the SR1.5 allowed us to explore the robustness of the findings with a different representation of the relationship between emissions and effective radiative forcing in FaIR, and to evaluate the associated uncertainty. The FaIR model was also used to estimate the remaining carbon budget associated with the goals of the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming at 2°C or 1.5°C.”… “Leeds’ FaIR model was also used to develop a conceptual representation of emission pathways related to climate stabilization, clearly identifying the relationship between the timing of net zero CO2 emissions and future peak warming, due to the major effect of cumulative past, present and future CO2 emissions on climate, separated from the requirement to reduce the net radiative forcing of non‐CO2 drivers. The corresponding figure from the Chapter 1 of this report has been used as one of the four figures in the Summary for Policy Makers, and has also been made available online, as an interactive tool” [B].

The published report had a transformative global response as it set out the timetable and actions needed to limit warming to well below 2°C. It reported that zero carbon emissions should be achieved by mid-century, informed by evidence on the remaining carbon budget. The publication of the report in October 2018, led to immediate reaction from the media, public and governments around the world, focusing on the need to meet ambitious net-zero targets.

The IPCC Co-Chair stated , “It is very clear that this report* [A] *has changed mitigation conversations from «reducing emissions» to «how to reach net zero CO2 emissions». The small margin of action identified in the assessment of remaining carbon budgets has also triggered numerous reactions, including by youth movements using this information to call for urgent climate action. Recent mitigation ambitions from cities, companies, governments are increasingly formulated with respect to the timing of reaching net zero CO₂. This highlights the importance of the contributions of University of Leeds to these aspects of the SR15 report to climate action.” [B]

In her address to the US congress, on 19 September 2019, prominent climate activist Greta Thunberg began with one science fact to illustrate the importance of climate change, by directly pointing to SR1.5 page 108, and a table of the remaining carbon budget numbers computed by the Leeds team with the FaIR v1.3 model [C].

National legislative responses

The report, and especially its negotiated summary, has led to governments introducing legislated net-zero carbon emissions targets and ambitious emission reduction plans. As a direct result of the publication of SR1.5, the UK government tasked its Committee on Climate Change to apply the emission reduction pathways of SR1.5 to national emission targets. Forster was appointed to the CCC in 2018 for his specific expertise [D] and the CCC delivered its net-zero report in May 2019, recommending a 2050 net-zero target for all greenhouse gas emissions for the UK. The report cites use of the FaIR v1.3 results directly in its technical assessment of the 2050 net zero greenhouse gases target date [E].

*“The SR1.5 assessment of net-zero emission pathways played a crucial role in the instigation of the CCC’s Net Zero Report.”…“The University of Leeds’ researchers, their development of the FaIR model and their experience of SR1.5 supported the CCC Net Zero analyses. In particular, Professor Piers Forster was appointed to the committee in December 2018 in part for his role in the SR1.5 report.” [F]

The UK government responded to the Committee’s direct recommendations and amended the 2008 Climate Change Act to set the 2050 net-zero target into legislation on 26 June 2019 [G], becoming the first major global economy to pass a net-zero emissions law.

“The SR1.5 assessment of net-zero emission pathways and remaining carbon budgets

*produced by the FaIR model were important lines of evidence in the CCC recommendation of a 2050 net-zero date for the UK.” [F]

In November 2018, immediately after the publication of SR1.5, The President of France established the Haut Conseil pour le Climat, modelled on the UK CCC. Using the same evidence and science from the SR1.5 report, citing the CCC Net Zero report [E] as key evidence (43), the Conseil published a report setting a 2050 zero-emission target date [H]. This was signed into law on 29 June 2019, a few days later than in the UK.

New Zealand legislated for a net zero target in November 2019, following the SR1.5 and CCC evidence, setting up a Climate Change Commission, modelled on the CCC [I], as confirmed by [F] “Other country governments, such as New Zealand and France, have also worked directly with the CCC to understand and replicate the analytical approach taken in the UK.”*

UK policy implementation

In its advice on the net zero target, the UK CCC recommended that the Treasury undertake a funding review. The resulting Net Zero Review Interim Report was published in December 2020, as the first of its kind from a finance ministry to set out the steps toward transition to net-zero by 2050 [J], with reference to [E] and [G]. The report outlines the UK government response to date including investments across multiple sectors announced in the UK budget of March 2020. These included GBP1,130,000,000 for a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Infrastructure Fund to help establish four CCS clusters by 2030, a GBP240,000,000 Net Zero Hydrogen Fund, GBP2,400,000,000 for transport decarbonisation, and GBP640,000,000 for tree planting and peatland restoration.

During 2020, NHS England established an expert panel, including Forster, to chart a practical route map to enable the NHS to respond to Net Zero targets. The outcome was a report [K] published in October 2020 to guide this process of action for the NHS, which is the UK’s largest employer, and responsible for 4% of the nation’s carbon emissions.

Over the last decade, Leeds researchers have helped develop satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) from a niche research tool to a robust and reliable data stream. This has driven multiple benefits.

Informing European Space Agency acquisition strategy

Having demonstrated the potential for mapping tectonic deformation using InSAR [1], Wright coordinated the recommendations of the international scientific community [A], which guided and informed ESA in setting their specific acquisition strategy over tectonic areas for Sentinel-1 in 2014 [B]. The Sentinel-1 Mission Manager (ESA) states : “Your research demonstrated the potential of InSAR for assisting in all phases of geohazard management... As a result of your work, we were able to define a tectonic zone mask, and made the decision to acquire both ascending and descending data in tectonic areas...your ongoing guidance has helped us plan extra Sentinel-1 acquisitions to support scientists and civil defence organisations worldwide as they respond to major earthquakes and eruptions.” [B])

Exploiting Sentinel-1 in response to volcanic and seismic events

Leeds researchers routinely provide ground movement information (data and models) to civil protection authorities worldwide during volcanic crises and following major earthquake events. Increasingly, these data are being used worldwide for long-term monitoring. For example, our data [C] contribute to international efforts to integrate InSAR into global volcano monitoring (including the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Volcano Demonstrator, co-led at Leeds). To demonstrate our global reach, we focus on three examples from Iceland, New Zealand and Ecuador.

Iceland suffers from regular volcanic crises, which have the potential to cause major local and international disruption, as was seen in the Ejyafjalljökull eruption of 2010, when the lengthy closure of trans-Atlantic airspace cost the aviation industry alone more than USD1.7billion (IATA, 2010). Leeds researchers have provided rapid analysis of InSAR results (within a few hours of satellite data acquisition) and software tools to inform the national-level responses of the Icelandic Civil Protection and the update of aviation colour codes, during events at Bárðarbunga (2014/15) and the Reykjanes Peninsula (2020) [D, E]. The Nordic Volcanological Center state: *“Results from University of Leeds were regularly presented at meetings of the science committee of the Icelandic Civil Protection, and as such formed the basis for effective societal response to the events” [D]. Regarding the 2020 activity, the Iceland Meteorological Office state: “Professor Andrew Hooper assisted by generating preliminary deformation models to determine the likely cause of the unrest, the geometry and location of the intruded magma body and the rate of magma inflow [...which] supported the initial decision to raise the aviation color code at this volcano to yellow on the 26th January 2020” [E] . They continue, “The GBIS software [4] has proved to be a robust and efficient tool for generating rapid volcanic deformation models in near-real time during volcanic crises, which is essential for facilitating informed decisions regarding the potential threat of volcanic hazards” [E].

In New Zealand, Leeds researchers supported the response to the 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake, the largest in New Zealand since 1855. The response was coordinated by the national team at GNS Science who state “The rapid response tools developed by your team enabled the delivery of InSAR data products to GNS within just a few hours of the first satellite overpass, which were vital in supporting the response to the earthquake. These data...helped guide our teams in the field and...supported the national civil defence recovery efforts.” [F]. The new understanding of fault processes from the collaborative research “ has strongly informed our approach to revising the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model […and] was also used to update the New Zealand National Coordinate System.” In addition, GNS installed the Leeds LiCSAR system [3] in early 2020 with a c.NZD 60,000 investment “to help monitor deformation across the whole of New Zealand.” [F].

In Ecuador, the Instituto Geofísico of the Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IGEPN) is responsible for monitoring geophysical hazards and providing up-to-date information to national civil defence. They have worked closely with COMET scientists at the University of Leeds. In March 2017, Leeds provided rapid data processing and modelling during a major volcanic crisis at Cerro Azul in the Galápagos, within 10 hours of the request. IGEPN state “ Deformation measurements and modelling results provided by […] Leeds contributed to our assessment that unrest was not likely to result in an imminent eruption, and was incorporated into our hazard bulletins.” [G]. IGEPN is now using InSAR tools developed in Leeds to monitor volcanoes across Ecuador, which they state: “...is a significant help to us for monitoring the 20 of our 40 potentially active volcanoes without any ground-based monitoring,” and “At the present time (September – December 2020) we are monitoring a developing situation at Sangay volcano in which the rate of vertical uplift in the summit area is increasing week by week […] automatic processing systems such as LICSBAS, developed in Leeds, have helped us to efficiently monitor the ongoing situation.” [G].

Commercial applications of Sentinel-1

The development of large-scale processing algorithms by Leeds researchers, with improved speed of delivery, accuracy and measurement coverage provided the underpinning technology for Leeds spinout company SatSense Ltd. SatSense produces a high-resolution deformation product for the entire UK from Sentinel-1 data, which is updated within a few hours of each satellite overpass [H]. Data are used by commercial clients in sectors including property conveyancing, geotechnical services, energy, and civil engineering.

SatSense started operating in the first quarter of 2018 when they received investment, including GBP500,000 from Unipart Rail and the Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund (administered by Mercia Fund Managers). The company received an additional external investment of GBP500,000 from Mercia/NPIF in Q1 2020. SatSense has created 4 full-time positions, as well as a part-time chair and financial director. Turnover was [text removed for publication] in 2020, and is growing rapidly [I].

The SatSense CEO states: *“The algorithms developed at the University of Leeds have enabled SatSense to build a unique team and product that is highly valued by our customers in several sectors” [I]. Customers using SatSense data include Groundsure [J], who are the largest provider of property assessment reports to house buyers; in Q4 2020, SatSense data was used in [text removed for publication] [K]. VP Operations for Groundsure states that: “SatSense data provide incredibly detailed and reliable satellite-derived deformation analysis in our latest, premium subsidence reports. The data give us a cutting edge over our competitors” [K]. Network Rail, who operate 32,000 km of rail track in the UK, have used SatSense data to investigate ground stability issues that can impact on their network. [text removed for publication]

Asda is one of the largest supermarket chains in the UK. Between 2015 and 2018, it held a 15% market share in the groceries market. More than 18,000,000 people shop in Asda stores weekly and consumer spending at Asda has been estimated at over GBP4,000,000,000 per quarter between 2015 and 2017 (statista.com). The Asda Chief Customer Officer said: “As a major food retailer, we have a responsibility and the ability to bring about large scale change when it comes to tackling food waste. By partnering with the University of Leeds, the team has been able to take our insight and really explore this area, meaning that we now have a greater understanding of customer attitude and behaviour, helping shape the way we communicate with our customers and ultimately the way we do business” [A].

Asda estimated that 2,000,000 customers made changes in their homes as a result of the campaign co-produced with Leeds researchers, and 81% of them said that they planned to follow the advice in the interventions [A, B]. Examples included using shopping lists to shop smarter, planning meals and using up food that would otherwise be thrown away. As a result of the interventions, customers saved on average GBP57 per annum in 2015, rising to GBP81 per annum for those who said they had seen the interventions in both 2014 and 2015, by applying these changes in their home [2, 3]. This is estimated to reduce food waste by 48,276 t (0.7% of UK annual) and 183,449 t of CO₂e (using Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP) conversions GBP1 = 0.15 kg food waste; 1 t food waste = 3.80 t CO₂e). A Senior Director at Asda reported that “the customer-reported results showed a positive change in behaviour and true cost savings.” [B].

Secondly, the research was designed to directly inform and improve Asda’s sales strategy and profits. Through the customer food waste campaign, Asda was able to build customer brand loyalty adding GBP5,000,000 to pre-tax profits [B]. The research team modelled Asda’s sales data through the ESRC Consumer Data Research Centre, focusing on mainstream and niche green product lines such as eggs, milk, poultry, cleaning products/hygiene and organic vegetables. The analysis identified more sustainable products that could triple sales in particular postcodes by communicating the correct message to the correct groups [4].

Thirdly, the sustainability strategy at Asda was directly informed by the research. “The project influenced the activities of the sustainable business team, the insight team, the community team, the public affairs team and the trading team within Asda...The customer voice has now been embedded into every aspect of the sustainability strategy” [B]. The Leeds researchers conducted quarterly surveys of 20,000 customers on sustainability issues from 2013 to 2016, which was used to feed into policy direction and Asda’s new Sustainability Strategy 2.0. Progress against the new strategy was publicly reported in “The Big Green Journey” report in 2016 [C]. The Leeds researchers directly contributed to annual consumer sustainability reports to help Asda adhere to the cross-food sector targets in the Courtauld Commitment and to report progress to customers [D].

Asda shared the outcomes of the project with over 1,000 suppliers through their Sustain and Save exchange forum and invested GBP20,000 in holding a conference to present the learnings of the project with staff and suppliers [B]. The work drew the attention of Walmart, Asda’s international parent company, and featured in the 2017 Global Responsibility Report as an example of best practice, which is shared globally across all Walmart companies [E].

The research has also had a wider influence on practice and policy in the retailing sector beyond Asda. This research and interventions it informed were focused on customers, which was unique as the other major retailers focused on their supply chains. The work from the partnership led to three sector-wide accolades: (1) a short-listing in the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) Award for Sustainable Futures [F]; (2) the Environmental Association for Universities and Colleges (EAUC) Highly Commended Green Gown Award for Research and Development [G]; and (3) the KTP Excellence Award, which was awarded the highest grade of "Outstanding" [H].

The grocery and wider retail sector benefited from the outcomes of the partnership showcased by WRAP in the Courtauld Commitment 3 [I] and the British Retail Consortium [J]. The impact of the work was also recognised at a Parliamentary Reception by the Director of WRAP, the Chief Customer Officer at Asda, the CEO of Innovate UK, the Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Rural Affairs and Biosecurity at Defra, and the Member of Parliament for Leeds Central. At the event, the Director of WRAP said : *“Food waste is one of the biggest challenges of our time, it’s bad for the environment, economy and to society as a whole. WRAP has a track record of reducing waste and at the heart of this work is collective action, which is pivotal to this success. We therefore welcome Asda’s work with the University of Leeds to help customers waste less and save money, and encourage more of this type of work to ensure food waste reduction continues.” [A].

Consumption-based emission accounting

A new accounting approach was introduced in 2015, exclusively utilising the Leeds MRIO model. This indicator (consumption-based accounting, commonly referred as the “Carbon Footprint”) has been developed as one of the Government’s headline indicators for climate change. This was a direct result of research undertaken at the University of Leeds, combined with extensive engagement with Parliamentary Select Committees, government advisory bodies (Committee on Climate Change (CCC)), and government departments and agencies including BEIS, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

*“Evidence and policy teams in Defra have very much welcomed this collaboration as your team’s work has helped shape the resource agenda by providing three very valuable indicators”...*[including]... *“carbon footprint (consumption-based emissions)...a new indicator” [A].

*“…changing the carbon accounting approach to consider the broader capture of carbon, including emissions embedded in imports has informed policymakers of the importance of embedded emissions and of thinking beyond territorial domestic emissions.” [A].

The research evidence received Parliamentary attention in 2016, when the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee held an inquiry into the UK’s 5^th Carbon Budget, Professor Barrett was the only academic invited to provide oral evidence. His evidence was cited 5 times, and emphasised the importance of consumption-based emissions analysis and the Committee’s report recommended that: “ DECC (Department for Energy and Climate Change) work with the CCC to explore options for incorporating consumption-based emissions data into their policy making process and the potential for including these in future carbon budgets.” [B].

The UK was the first country in the world to officially monitor net-imported GHG emissions on an annual basis. The Leeds team was appointed as the official provider of the UK Government headline indicator on consumption-based emissions. “The University of Leeds provides estimates of the UK’s carbon footprint by an agreement with Defra.” [C]. Previously, the UK government had no adequate measure to capture the emissions that had been outsourced to other countries. This annually updated indicator was introduced because of our research in 2015, and exclusively used the Leeds model up to and including the most recent report in 2020.

Informing the Resources and Waste Strategy and the UK Industrial Strategy

The research into consumption-based emissions highlighted that addressing climate change required a fundamental shift in the use of materials and products. Working closely with Defra from 2014 onwards, Leeds researchers revised and developed new metrics to inform and shape the Government’s Resources and Waste Strategy [D] including improved indicators for material footprint and resource productivity compared to older data based on less refined methodology [A]. Defra stated that the research has *“…helped influence the shape of the Resources and Waste Strategy and is providing a sound evidence base on which to set goals and monitor progress in terms of greater resource productivity and reduced carbon and material footprints.” [A]. Ongoing research by Leeds has informed discussions on the development of a resource productivity target for the UK, and Barrett was invited to become a member of the newly formed Government Advisory Group to establish the target. The Leeds research team will also be undertaking the required quantitative analysis. [A]

Further targeted engagement strategies included the production of a policy brief [E] in partnership with Green Alliance, a prominent UK think tank. The climate implications of resource productivity is considered in the Clean Growth Strategy, aligning with Resources and Waste Strategy. As a result of our collaboration, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has said it is better able to deliver Government objectives. The research “…has contributed to the better understanding of energy efficiency and material efficiency to help the eight most heat-intensive industries decarbonise and increase their energy efficiency while remaining competitive.” [F]. This has helped to shape sectoral action plans and influenced the Government’s Industrial Strategy, which aims to support industry to become resource efficient while minimising the negative consequences of extraction, use and disposal. Research from CIE-MAP [4, 5, 6] was used to underpin the UK government’s decision to make an investment of GBP66,000,000 as part of the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund Wave 3, to drive forward “…recycling and reuse technologies using collaborative R&D programmes on material substitution, industrial symbiosis, recycling and reuse, developing new sustainable materials, developing new process technology and addressing cross-cutting themes” [F]

The analysis conducted by Leeds researchers indicated that industrial energy demand is a key factor in addressing these challenges and identified opportunities for progress. As a result of the team’s work, BEIS “…understand better the UK’s industrial energy demand, material flows and resource efficiency in the industrial supply chains and economy as a whole. This has helped us to develop and implement policies to deliver Government’s objectives.” [F], and Defra state that the (Resources and Waste) “…Strategy, the 25yr Environment Plan and the Industrial and Clean Growth Strategies all commit to double resource productivity by 2050” [A].

Scenarios for a net zero future

By identifying the need for transformative change to deliver longer-term climate goals, the research has influenced long-term thinking, and contributed evidence and analysis to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to support its oversight and scrutiny function. Our modelling enabled the CCC to develop a scenario of the UK’s emissions that would otherwise not have been considered (i.e., emissions from imports to satisfy UK consumption). Leeds’ model has exclusively provided the consumption-based emissions data for the CCC progress reports.

The CCC said: “The development of this model and the regular engagement and access to it provided by Professor Barrett’s team have been essential for consumption emissions to feature within the CCC’s annual progress reports, including the 2020, 2019 and 2018 Progress Reports of Parliament and the 2020 Scotland Progress Report.” [G]. In response to recommendations informed by Barrett following the fifth carbon budget, the research was used in the CCC’s advice on the sixth carbon budget [H] “… to provide a high-level projection for future trajectories of consumption emissions.” [G].

In addition, our research has contributed analyses of energy demand to the CCC’s Net Zero report [I] and their subsequent progress report to parliament. This has ensured that resource efficiency was, for the first time, seen as a strategy to deliver emissions reductions in UK industry giving it a prominent focus in their Net Zero scenario. “The CCC drew on the University of Leeds’ work under the CIE-MAP project on resource efficiency as part of assessment of how to reduce emissions from the UK’s industry sector to zero as part of our advice to the Government on setting a UK Net Zero target, summarised in [I]. ” [G].

In parallel, Leeds has maintained collaboration with BEIS supporting analysis of future energy demand and GHG emissions in the UK by “re-estimating the equations related to industrial energy within the department’s Energy Demand Model.” [J]. “This model is an important tool for the Government for providing an analysis of future energy demand and GHG emissions for the UK. The model underpins one of our key publications, the Energy and Emissions Projections report.” [J]. The report informs the government of their progress on reducing emissions.