Impact case study database

Aiding police decisions on criminal investigations and prosecutions

The accurate, precise and rapid determination of the year of birth and/or death, based on analysis of human skeletal remains, is critical to deciding whether they are historic or if criminal investigation is required, particularly for surface-found human remains where there is no archaeological context. In acknowledgement of his research expertise in forensic radiocarbon dating, in 2007, on behalf of the Association of Chief Police Officers, Prof Cook was invited to join the police database of expert scientists/witnesses by the Specialist Operations Centre’s Crime Advice Team at the National Policing Improvement Agency. Analysis volume at the Laboratory has increased 15-fold since 2013 as national and international police forces became increasingly aware of the Laboratory’s expertise in radiocarbon and stable isotope analyses and data interpretation.

Since 2014, the Laboratory’s analysis of human remains has contributed more than 280 reports [5.1] to: (i) approximately 50% of all UK Police Forces, the State of Jersey Police and Ireland’s An Garda Síochána; (ii) coroners’ reports (including in the Republic of Ireland and Falkland Islands) and resulted in several criminal convictions [5.2]. This work has been carried out on behalf of all the major UK forensic science companies (e.g. Forensic Access, Eurofins Scientific, Alecto Forensic Services and Cellmark Forensic Services) [5.3]. A leading independent Forensic Pathologist states that " *SUERC is an invaluable resource available to investigating authorities in this country… Pinpointing or excluding a particular time period will focus investigations and cut down on unnecessary enquiries elsewhere.”

Of the >280 cases analysed since 2014, 17 cases were identified as human remains from the modern era, thus requiring full forensic investigation. The Home Office has calculated that each murder enquiry costs around GBP3.2 million, with GBP2.3 million relating to social and economic costs and GBP874,000 to the investigating force. More than 90% of human remains submitted to the Laboratory were too old to require a forensic investigation or inquest, thus providing rapid and cost-effective analysis of human remains that has directly influenced the decisions made by both forensic science companies, police detectives and lawyers, with direct cost savings for the UK police and criminal justice system of up to GBP12.2 million since 2014.

In addition to ¹⁴C isotope measurement, Prof Cook provided additional detailed analysis of dietary isotopes in the remains of 5 of these individuals, (namely stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur), and strontium and oxygen isotope profiles, which facilitated identification of the geographical regions to which the bones were related. These cases are still outstanding in the criminal court system [5.1].

The work by the Laboratory has helped ease the emotional trauma suffered by families, either in the identification of their relative or when it was demonstrated that the remains were not of the correct time period [5.4, 5.5].

One of the most significant examples of this alleviation of emotional distress is related to the Mother and Baby Homes investigation in the Republic of Ireland. From 2011, the journalist and historian Catherine Corless has focused national and international attention on the fate of 796 children who died in at the Mother and Baby Home in Tuam, Co. Roscommon. On the recommendation of the then State Pathologist of Ireland, the Mother and Baby Homes Commission of Investigation in Ireland (MBHCOI) [5.5] asked The Laboratory to date some of the remains found at the Tuam home. The Laboratory’s analysis determined that the remains dated between 1925 and 1961, during the period that the Mother and Baby Home was in operation in Tuam. On 3 March 2017, the Commission announced completion of their test excavation of the Tuam site, stating that “ **Radiocarbon dating was essential in linking the remains found in Tuam to the Bon Secours Mother & Baby Home.**” [5.6]. In the words of Catherine Corless [5.7] “… it was the final proof that those remains were not from famine times, as I had been trying to prove for so long”. **

This dating evidence provided by through The Laboratory’s research has had far-reaching effects on Irish Society. As one of Ireland’s foremost gender historians has noted “this public acknowledgement had a profound effect on some survivors as they have documented in press reports and interviews in other media. It particularly vindicated the work of Catherine Corless and her understanding of the burial practices in the Tuam institution. It also led to questions of accountability more broadly, and calls for an excavation of the area became more vocal from some quarters... The Minister for Children, Roderic O’Gorman, [on 06/09/2020 advocated] in favour of the excavation in Tuam and also a State apology for survivors of the mother and baby homes. While the coming months will tell, these would be two important steps for survivors, their families and Irish society and will have been greatly influenced by the work of Prof Cook” [5.8].

Changing the landscape of prosecutions for wildlife crime

In addition to human forensic analysis, The Laboratory has performed forensic radiocarbon analyses of 31 animal parts including rhino horn, ivory and animal pelts for Wildlife Crime Police Units across the UK and forensic science companies acting on behalf of the police, to establish whether trade in these animal parts was subject to CITES regulations [5.9b]: “The SUERC Radiocarbon Laboratory was chosen for the analysis due to its reputation and the unique nature of the task and expertise required” – Joint Nature Conservation Committee.

In 7 cases, the ivory was deemed to be legal (pre-1947), while the other cases rhino horn, ivory and animal pelts were illegally traded. The evidence provided by UofG was critical to a successful prosecution in one such case where " [h]ad we not been able to charge him with the CITES offences all we would have been left with would have been the Customs and Excise offences (for which he would have been unlikely to receive a custodial sentence)**” (Lincolnshire Constabulary, 2019 [5.9a]).

In addition, radiocarbon dating “data has been used to create educational material, documenting the history of the tusks, outlining what available scientific testing can tell us about the tusks and linking to the conservation status of African elephant and its history through CITES… Determining the source and age of ivory using forensic scientific techniques can help to determine if it was legally acquired… assist with law enforcement in source countries and helps build a better picture of the scale and extent of illegal killing of elephants and key trade routes, informing legislation and management actions.”[5.9b].*

Following the Ivory Act 2018, UofG continues to support the National Wildlife Crime Unit in the analysis of those items exempt from the Act, as the NWCU prepare for the new regulations leading to *“ a surge in people trying to sell these items or trying to disguise the items when selling them”* [5.9c].

The international reputation of the Laboratory’s bone-related radiocarbon research, its unique breadth of analytical capability and the speed of turnaround of analyses have thus made it the go-to laboratory for police forces, forensic pathologists and forensic science companies for both human and animal remains.

UofG research has delivered evidence-based tools that enable national and local governments, and their agencies, to implement policies that address coastal erosion and assess risk. This has catalysed a step change in coastal erosion policy, strategy and practice, improving the future resilience of coastal communities and assets [5.1a(i)]. The reach of DynamicCoast is global: 65,440 website hits and 16,660 users from 105 countries since August 2017 ( dynamiccoast.com).

A. Changes to National Policy: UK government requires 5-yearly Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) under the UK Climate Change Act, with “ CCRA1 noted the absence of coastal change analysis between historical mapping and modern datasets” [5.1c, p33]. UofG research addressed this key evidence gap, producing tools which allow policy makers better manage those risks. The Scottish Government has, through both the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) [5.1b] and SCCAP2, used UofG research [3.3] to identify the coastal erosion risks noting that “…GBP1 billion roads, GBP 2 billion railway line and GBP0.5 billion housing within land…susceptible to coastal erosion”. They also confirm that UofG’s tools allow the Scottish Government to better manage these risks: “ Use the [Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model] CESM for Scotland to inform Flood Risk Management Plans” [5.1d, §N2-20, p55]. Thus, UofG research has addressed these evidence gaps, enabling production of “ the first full assessment of [Scotland’s] coastal vulnerabilities” [5.1b]. UofG research has driven Scottish Government’s decision to invest GBP12 million [5.1a(1)] in new central funding for coastal change adaptation. The UK Parliament’s Preparing for Climate Change Progress Report states “ NCERM data are not available in an easy-to-use format; Scotland’s Dynamic website shows that this is possible, and a similar approach should be adopted in England” [5.1e]. Internationally, Ireland’s statutory adaptation plans recommend DynamicCoast as “ best-practice exemplar that Ireland can follow” [5.1f].

B. Changes to Regional/Local Policy: The UofG CESM [3.2] is used by SG agencies [5.2−5.3] responsible for flooding (SEPA), marine (Marine Scotland), nature (SNH), historic environment (Historic Environment Scotland, HES) and 25 (of 32) local authorities. HES and SNH use DynamicCoast to underpin technical guidance for the historic environment [5.3a] and in national advice for planners [5.3b]. SEPA has embedded UofG-developed outputs [3.1, 3.3] into flood webmaps (NSCE maps) to *“inform which actions are likely to be more sustainable to manage coastal flood risk… (and)…inform strategic advice provided by SEPA.*” [5.2a]). Indeed “As coastal erosion and flooding are interlinked, they must be considered jointly. SEPA has used outputs from the Dynamic Coast project to inform the second National Flood Risk Assessment published in December 2018” [5.2c, §2.3].

DynamicCoast and the NSCE maps enable SEPA to fulfil statutory legislative requirements previously unaddressed (§19-21 2009 Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act), impact recognised by the Scottish Knowledge Exchange Award’s ‘Spotlight’ prize in 2019 [5.4]. SEPA’s Head of Hydrology and Flooding notes: “Dynamic Coast data and analysis is highly relevant to the appraisal of actions to address flood risk…” [5.2b, pg2]; underpinned by these coastal erosion data, flood risk appraisals are more robust and improve future community and infrastructure resilience.

Four Local Authorities (Ayrshire, Fife, Moray and Highland) have used DynamicCoast for coastal erosion and climate change risk assessment within Shoreline Management Plans (SMP), with more expected to follow [confirmed by 5.5 and the Scottish Government Managing Flood Risk Team, 5.1a(i)]: “The Dynamic Coast project has had a truly transformative impact…in support of our local communities…. Awareness of the risks identified within these maps is essential as Scotland embarks on resilience and adaptation planning along asset-rich shores….’ [5.1a(i)].

Through her Knowledge Exchange fellowship, Naylor was able to influence policy at city and regional scale in Scotland (Adaptation Scotland and Clyde Marine Planning Partnership) and England. UofG coastal actions, within Edinburgh’s climate change adaptation plan, allow statutory climate change adaptation duties to be met [5.5d]. Coastal policy in the Clyde Marine Plan [5.5e(ii), Chapter 4] are UofG-driven, confirmed by the Marine Plan Manager [5.5e(i)]: UofG “coastal research ([3.2]; [3.4]) has been a key input to allow us to develop… those aspects relating to sea-level rise, coastal processes and adaptation management…’.

C. Changes to government/industry practice improving coastal resilience: DynamicCoast has driven practice-change within SG agencies. Marine Scotland’s License Operations Team (MS-LOT) use DynamicCoast to ensure marine license compliance with the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 [5.3c]: “DynamicCoast maps have enabled MS-LOT to more easily consider the potential impacts to or from coastal erosion. It has become standard practice to review the maps when considering applications for dredging”, such as at Montrose [5.6, pp43–44].

Statutory consultee, SEPA, used DynamicCoast to prevent a substantial housing development in an erosion risk site, placing it on indefinite hold [5.2d, §1.5]: “Dynamic Coast was referenced in our consultation response for a proposed residential and leisure development at Ardersier, Nairn” [5.2b, p3]. In Edinburgh, UofG research [3.2, 3.3, 3.6] underpins the business case for creating a coastal park and landward relocation of a 3,500-house regeneration project [5.5d(i)].

Coastal businesses also directly use DynamicCoast; world-renowned golf courses such as St. Andrews use UofG data to plan repairs and/or improve climate-resilient business continuity [5.7]. Energy infrastructure is now more resilient: landfalls from proposed offshore renewables were moved to a risk-free site, eg: “Moray Council uses DynamicCoast to inform future development...important in reducing the risk of inappropriate development” [5.5c(i)−(ii)]. Such changes improve business sustainability by better managing coastal erosion risks and reducing future costs.

D. Integration of research methodology into National Practice: In 2017, Ordnance Survey Ltd (OS) adopted DynamicCoast’s innovative methodology to change its data attributions and protocols, improving the accuracy of its tidal surveying [5.8]. Mean High Water Springs (MHWS) constitute the legal land registry boundary underpinning coastal title in Scotland, and DynamicCoast has ensured challenge-free OS tideline positions. This is confirmed by the Managing Director, National Mapping Services [see 5.8]: “These tidal updates greatly enhance the robustness of other key OS products such as Boundary-Line, which represents the hierarchy of administrative and electoral boundaries in England, Scotland and Wales and supports a wide range of government and business decisions.” Dynamic Coast change in Scotland ‘informed the need for a targeted GB-wide coastal revision programme. As a result…OS…update(d) 5,700km of MHWS and associated geographic features in England and Wales to December 2020” [5.8]. Marine Scotland’s Licensing Operations Team noted: “An additional benefit of the work of DynamicCoast has been the updating of the position of MHWS…This allows MS-LOT to provide better advice…when marine licences are required” [5.3c].

Whisky is a GBP4 billion export business for Scotland, with brand protection being hugely important for guaranteeing continuity of this trade [5.1]. Whiskies have risen to prominence in auctions and on the secondary market in recent years, with sales of rare single-malt Scotch whisky being recommended as an “asset class”, rapidly rising in value [5.2]. Whisky was first added to the Luxury Investment Index published by the financial consulting firm of Knight Frank, who stated in their 2019 report that prices have risen over 35% in the past year, with UK auction totals of over GBP40 million — a rise of 600% over the past decade. With this rise in values have come heightened concerns regarding counterfeiting within the Scotch whisky industry and the general public. However, until recently there was no ability to confirm year of distillation in any authentication process, leaving industry reputations and buyers at risk from counterfeit goods.

Increased industry awareness of the problem of “fake whiskies”

Since 2016, the team have analysed 137 whisky samples of indeterminate age for whisky industry companies, private individuals and auction houses, and more than a third have been shown to be counterfeit. Dr Dunbar first raised the scale of this counterfeiting issue and its solution using radiocarbon dating to the Worldwide Distilled Spirits Conference (2017) [3.3]. The work was published in the conference proceedings. Soon afterwards, the team was approached to write an article for the trade-oriented Brewer and Distiller International Magazine, bringing this issue to a wider audience. The issue was then brought to the attention of the drinks industry and the national and international public in December 2018 [5.3], when UofG radiocarbon dating revealed that of 55 bottles of Scotch whisky acquired from various sources through the secondary market, 21 were determined to be either outright fakes or not distilled in the year declared. All malt whisky samples purporting to be from around 1900 or earlier were found to be fake. This work was commissioned by Rare Whisky 101 [5.4] and has had a profound effect on the market [5.4-5.9], with results reported in both national and international mainstream and business news. Indeed, the Head of Whisky for Bonhams noted that “ after a number of pieces exposing the prevalence of ‘fakes’ were published in December 2018, there has been an increased public awareness of the problem and its possible solution through radiocarbon dating. It was at this time that I became aware of SUERC as leaders in this field” [5.5]. The infiltration of ‘fake whiskies’ into all routes to market demonstrates that this problem involving high-value spirits is much more prevalent than originally thought, with an estimated GBP41 million worth of fake spirits currently circulating in the secondary market. “ Radiocarbon dating can be of the greatest importance in highlighting the worst and most valuable examples when fraudulent whisky comes onto the market**” [5.5].

[ Text redacted].

Cook and Dunbar have worked more recently with brand owners looking to authenticate high-value casks, where age is critical to value. They recently analysed a cask of 1970’s whisky to be purchased for GBP2.8 million. Confirmation of age authenticity gave the buyer confidence and ensured that the real value of the product was realised upon sale [5.4]. Analyses have been undertaken on behalf of the Metropolitan Police Force [5.9] in pursuit of a criminal case involving the sale of high-cost single malt whiskies.

The Laboratory’s research has thus provided assurance to:

1. Retailers and auction houses, with a recommendation that "old, rare, valuable" bottles of malt whisky and other spirits must be sold with an accompanying certificate to prove age.

2. Brand Owners looking to authenticate "archive" bottles

3. Brand Owners looking to authenticate casks of rare whisky.

Change in professional practice in auction houses

A survey of 23 specialist whisky auction houses in the UK and internationally indicated that perceived difficulties in the resealing of bottles of rare whisky following radiocarbon date certification was a significant barrier to their uptake of this technique. In response to these concerns, the UofG is working with technology company Everledger to provide tamper-proof seals to accompany the radiocarbon dating analysis. The tamper-proof seal is applied to each bottle post-analysis, with Blockchain and near-field communication (NFC) technologies allowing a unique digital identity to be created. These will allow full and secure provenance tracking for each radiocarbon dated bottle, in perpetuity. “Whether it’s fine whiskies or precious gemstones, the authenticity and backstory can be equally as important as the item itself. Organisations like SUERC lead the way when it comes to protecting, and increasing, the value of these prized assets, while defending the industry from fraudsters. By offering a complete solution including the intelligent bottle closures and the Everledger Platform, we’re helping the likes of SUERC to further enhance the vital work that they do” [5.10].