Impact case study database

Professional Military and Defence Engagement

Our work has been widely shared with professional military organisations outside the University sector in the US and the UK. MacKay visited the US Naval Postgraduate School twice to give the main Operations Research colloquium, to a mixed audience of about 100 faculty and students (module OA2900), speaking in 2016 on Concentration and Asymmetry in Air Combat (28/1/2016). This was based on the culmination of the air power strand in a professional journal Royal Air Force Air Power Review, [5.5] with general analyses which included the US-Japanese Pacific Air War, Korea, the Falklands, Vietnam and the First Gulf War. This work has also been presented to other professional audiences composing defence analysts and ranking service personnel, including Historical Analysis for Defence and Security (HADSS) 2014, DSTL Portsdown, (22/5/2014); the International Symposium on Military Operations Research (ISMOR), London, (31/7/2014). Our paper at the latter event led through an audience member to an exceptional invited lecture to Royal Air Force Air Command HQ, High Wycombe, (11/11/2014) delivered to ‘Service personnel of mixed rank from Airmen to Officers and civilian grades from junior to principle scientists’. The organiser of the event said, summarising audience response, that the presentation ‘was pitched at about the right level, one adding it was the best explanation of Lanchester he’d seen, and it was complemented well by the historical context; it all flowed well.’ [5.1] This event further resulted in extended email discussion, one senior audience member remarking that our research dealt with issues in which ‘I am very interested, and which seems to me vitally important when planning not only tactics, but also future force structures, basing, etc.’ [5.1] Academic presentations also included professional and service personnel – for example, the audience at a seminar for the University of Oxford Changing Character of War series, 24/2/2015, included the commander of the Australian Defence College, who subsequently visited YHWAG in York for discussions.

The naval warfare strand has been presented to professional audiences including ranking officers at HADSS 2017, (24/5/2017); as a specialist seminar at the NPS (29/1/2016); and as an Eight Bells lecture to a mixed audience of public, students (staff course officers) and faculty at the US Naval War College. [5.2] This lecture is currently on YouTube, (11/01/21) showing 7,781 views, plus comments.

[3.4], the simulation of the Battle of the Dogger Bank, was statistically innovative and arrived at novel historical conclusions suggesting that the British victory in the battle was highly improbable based on historical evidence and statistical analysis. This led to an invited cover feature in June 2017 for Significance magazine, [5.6] the joint ASA/RSS, US/UK professional magazine for the statistics community which presented our findings to a wider audience .

Public Engagement

Our research has been judged important by national and international media outlets and their presentation of it has generated considerable and intense public debate. [3.2] Bootstrapping the Battle of Britain generated a great deal of media coverage, [5.3] including a controversial Daily Mail article which received 1990 Comments (17/12/20 comments, and articles in Ars Technica (USA/UK) , Popular Mechanics (USA) , New Atlas (Australia), Big Think (USA) , Fox News (USA) , Business Telegraph (UK) and Legion (Canada), among others . [3.2] was perceived as ‘a startling study’ (Fox News) challenging the “myth” of the Battle of Britain in British popular culture, and its impact on popular discourse. According to historical communicator Dan Snow, it ‘sent the history world into meltdown’, largely due to its discussion of a probable German victory in certain possible circumstances, which generated a heated dispute beyond academia between members of the public in many countries who either supported the findings of the research or disputed them, the latter group being described as ‘proud Britons who would rather let their “finest hour” speak for itself’ (Legion **[5.3]**) . A different view was expressed in a comment on the Popular Mechanics article discussing [3.2] which argued that: ‘I appreciate being reminded of my history as I have family on both sides. This type of study is essential to prevent future wars on this scale. Knowledge is a powerful tool in life. Thank you for sharing this story’. [5.3] An interesting contributor was the important independent scholar Stephen Bungay, author of the influential and commercially successful The Most Dangerous Enemy: A History of the Battle of Britain who came across a report on [3.2] in Sci-Tech Daily and was ‘anxious to learn more about the methodology you used’ as we appeared to contradict his own conclusions presented in the 2005 Granada series Battlefield Detectives. [5.3] A friendly and fruitful dialogue has ensued. The initial response to [3.2] led to a second stage of coverage, including a further Legion article and an article for Weekendavisen (Denmark). In response to the public debate generated by the Daily Mail Article, Dan Snow interviewed Mackay and Wood for an episode of his HistoryHit podcast entitled Battle of Britain What Ifs which also covered our published research into the Battle of Jutland and broader questions about probabilities in history and their quantification, generating a second stage of impact. The full episode was listened to 105,000 times, Dan adding that: ‘I loved these guys and hope we get to work together again’ [5.3]

At the local level, The York Historical Warfare Analysis Group (YHWAG) has delivered a range of public engagement events [5.4], including:

• Friction in War, York Festival of Ideas, (19/6/14), combined lecture/simulation

• The Battle of Jutland: Mathematical Wargaming of Naval Conflict, combined lecture/simulation Jutland centenary event, (5/6/16).

The study began with a public engagement event hosted by York Festival of Ideas designed to share our research about the local community with it. ‘Propaganda and the People in Wartime Yorkshire’ (08/06/19) was delivered by staff and students presenting their research at undergraduate and postgraduate level to an audience of 60 members of the public. Feedback obtained by questionnaire and email response suggested that perspectives had been changed by the event and offers of assistance with the project from local people keen to interact with our research were received. One of our undergraduate students (now an MA graduate) speaking on the naval attack on Scarborough in WW1 was contacted by a member of the audience who was about to publish a book on parcels for troops made by York confectioners and established a dialogue [5.5].

As a result of this event, a connection was established with the Curator of the York Cold War Bunker, an English Heritage site, who suggested collaborative work with the Royal Observer Corps Association (ROCA) to establish research based on an oral history of the organisation, its place in society and the mental and emotional stresses experienced by civilians during the Cold War. He states that ‘the academic rigour and experience brought by Dr Brumby and Dr Price was integral in defining the nature of the proposed research’ and that ‘the project is underpinned by the experience of Dr Price in twentieth century political economic and military history and Dr Brumby’s experience in social history, specifically her approach to oral history’ [5.1].

After meetings with the ROCA chairman and the curator of the Cold War Bunker, a series of events entitled ‘Protest and Protect’ was organised for June-September 2020, with internal funding secured from English Heritage. This programme was curtailed as face-to-face public events at the Bunker and the University became and remained impossible. We responded by refocusing our collaboration, enabling the University to help the Cold War Bunker maintain its professional links and educational reach by adapting our events to run online in real time. We secured funds to employ a final year undergraduate student under the University’s ‘Students as Researchers’ scheme and staged an online event with the Bunker (17/11/20) at which members of ROCA joined a round table discussion in the context of our research and its relevance to their experience. Thirteen ROCA members participated in the project which built on the research underpinning the case study, exploring the experience of ROCA members and the effects of planning for Armageddon on their lives. All participants agreed to take part in oral history interviews with our student, currently underway [5.3].

The curator suggested a further collaboration with the English Heritage ‘Shout out Loud’ project, designed to enhance involvement of disadvantaged young people between 11 and 24 in heritage. A double workshop was staged (25/11/20) with Grimm and Co of Rotherham which uses ‘creative educational approaches to narrow the gap for marginalised children, young people and adults’. Rotherham is ‘a particularly under-resourced part of the UK with some of its boroughs ranking in the bottom 2% on the indices of multiple deprivation scale’ [5.4]. This project is the first stage of a creative writing project with the young people, which is designed to boost their confidence and literacy skills. In working with this group, we have engaged with ‘a group of young people who would otherwise not have the opportunity/inclination to visit a heritage site’ [5.4]. The workshop included our student researcher and produced a discussion with thirteen young people involving our research.

After our workshop on delivery of oral histories, the young people met with ROCA, to ask them about their experiences, enabling knowledge exchange. The Youth Participation Officer for Shout Out loud from English Heritage states that ‘The work undertaken by Alice and Dominic gave the youth group the experience of engaging with a higher educational institution. For a group of young people from an under-resourced area with comparatively low levels of school attainment and adult qualifications, this was a fantastic outcome, even more so as the group of 13 includes 4 individuals who are disabled/have additional needs’ She added that ‘One of these participants who has dyslexia has since mentioned that they are considering applying to study history and/or archaeology at university level. Therefore, the impact of Alice and Dominic’s session on the educational aspirations of the group cannot be overstated’ [5.2].

Overall, this project is a collaboration between local people and institutions, academic historians, and research students which has achieved research impact in enabling local communities to deepen and develop their understanding of their history and heritage. The Curator of the Bunker states that ‘the project has brought together ROCA members with young people from disadvantaged areas who were able to connect with the heritage and lived experience of their region in a way that would not otherwise have happened’ [5.1]. The case study has adapted dynamically to circumstances and the Curator of the Bunker notes that ‘you have run with this idea and in the midst of everything are making something meaningful happen’ [5.4].