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Submitting institution
University of Glasgow
Unit of assessment
10 - Mathematical Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Poor air quality has profound negative impact on human health. UofG has developed a statistical emulator for the urban air quality model (ADMS), enabling the Scottish Environment Protection Agency to quantify the compliance failure risk to air quality regulations under different scenarios. UofG’s emulator and statistical modelling informed the design and development of both the Scottish Government’s National Modelling Framework and the evaluation of low emission zones (LEZ) in Scottish cities, the first of which came into effect in Glasgow in December 2018. UofG statistical modelling enabled accurate quantification of the health impacts of the different air pollutants in Scotland and provided key insights in terms of modelling and understanding of how implementation of the LEZs would impact public health.

2. Underpinning research

Statistical research in the monitoring of air and water quality has been a long-standing focus of UofG. Colleagues in the Scottish Government (SG) and Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) have developed strong working relationships with the UofG Environmental Statistics group whose research focuses on the statistical modelling of air and water data. Underpinning UofG research first focussed on the development of air quality indicators (and associated uncertainty) [3.1] using high-quality routine monitoring data. In 2015, SEPA contacted Scott to develop statistical methods to examine and model the output from the proprietary ADMS-Urban air quality model being used in Aberdeen [3.2]). This work focussed on statistically assessing the validity, accuracy and precision of ADMS-Urban. SEPA have subsequently gone on to use ADMS-Urban in other Scottish cities including Glasgow and Edinburgh. This is a complex, proprietary mathematical model, involving traffic flow and topology of the city, being driven by vehicle data and meteorological conditions. The complexity of this model precludes its use in routine decision-making and SEPA approached UofG to develop a more computationally efficient statistical approach to support decision-making.

The UofG statistical research then developed an emulator [3.3] that is a statistical model, which simulates the complex model structure of ADMS-Urban. While ADMS-Urban delivers detailed maps of the air quality across the city, using traffic and meteorological inputs to drive the concentrations across a fine grid, like many complex physico-chemical models, this can be very computationally intensive, hence the need for a statistical emulator that is accurate and computationally fast. Working with an honorary research fellow (Finazzi) and the SEPA team, Scott developed a statistical emulator, whose code was then ported to SEPA to enable direct use of the emulator output. This emulator permits SEPA to explore the impact of a variety of scenarios including intervention measures such as changes in vehicle classes and volume of traffic on air quality, and thus to directly feed into management measures. The emulator is also being used to evaluate the risk that locations in a given city would be above the nitrogen dioxide annual average limit. The UofG research has shown that this risk is driven by uncertainty in meteorological conditions and emissions [3.3].

In 2018–2019 Anderson further developed for SG and SEPA, based on the work in [3.5], an annual average high spatial resolution Scotland-wide air quality index [follow-on work specified in 5.1, page 8], which allows areas with high overall pollution concentrations to be identified. This has produced maps and datasets of Scotland-wide pollution estimates for a range of pollutants (including NO2, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5) at a variety of resolutions including Scotland as a whole, local authorities and census data zones. The UofG-authored report [3.4] produced for the Scottish Government contains maps (and associated datasets) that display the probability that the level of a particular pollutant is above a given threshold, based on a particular set of environmental conditions. UofG research also produced easy-to-use software enabling users to update maps and estimates as new pollution and/or meteorological data becomes available [G4: 3.4].

UofG research led naturally to the investigation of associated health effects in the Scottish population focusing on the use of novel statistical models to determine the impact of air quality on cardiovascular and respiratory disease, the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Scotland [G2, G3, 5.7]. This research has revealed a relationship between fine particulate matter (PM10) and cardiovascular ill health and that particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations both exhibit substantial and independent effects on respiratory health [3.5]. Further research led to the quantification of the potential impact of reducing air pollution in city centres where Low Emission Zones (LEZ) are implemented [G1; 3.6, 3.7].

3. References to the research

  1. Lee, D., Ferguson, C. and Scott, E.M. (2011) Constructing representative air quality indicators with measures of uncertainty. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 174(1), pp. 109-126. (doi: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00658.x

  2. Finazzi, F., Scott, E.M. and Fasso, A. (2013) A model based framework for air quality indices and population risk evaluation, with an application to the analysis of Scottish air quality data.  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 62(2), pp. 287-308. (doi: 10.1111/rssc.12001)

  3. Finazzi, F., Napier, Y., Scott, E.M., Hills, A., Cameletti, M. (2019) A statistical emulator for multivariate model outputs with missing data. Atmospheric Environment 199, 415-422. (doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.11.025)

  4. McIntosh, A. and Anderson, C. (2019) Modelling the Risk of Exceeding Air Quality Monitoring Thresholds in Scotland. Project Report. Scottish Government. eprints.gla.ac.uk/229232/

  5. Huang, G., Lee, D. and Scott, E. M. (2018) Multivariate space-time modelling of multiple air pollutants and their health effects accounting for exposure uncertainty.  Statistics in Medicine, 37(7), pp. 1134-1148. (doi: 10.1002/sim.7570)

  6. Lee, D., Robertson, C., Ramsay, C., Gillespie, C. and Napier, G. (2019) Estimating the health impact of air pollution in Scotland, and the resulting benefits of reducing concentrations in city centres. Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology, 29, pp. 85-96. (doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2019.02.003)

  7. Lee, D., Robertson, C., Ramsay, C. and Pyper, K. (2020) Quantifying the impact of the modifiable areal unit problem when estimating the health effects of air pollution. Environmetrics, online early (doi: 10.1002/env.2643)

Grants:

  • G1: EPSRC SECURE network grant EP/M008347/1. GBP446,638

  • G2: EPSRC, A rigorous statistical framework for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution (2013-2016), EP/J017442/1. GBP269,754

  • G3: Scottish Government, Estimation of the spatial and temporal associations of air pollution on health in Scotland. GBP114,000

  • G4: Scottish Government, Development of a High Spatial Resolution Air Quality Indicator for Scotland (2018) GBP43,751

4. Details of the impact

Background

In 2010, the UK’s Environmental Audit Committee determined that poor air quality results in up to 50,000 additional premature deaths/annum. In 2018, the UK government wrote “Poor air quality is the largest environmental risk to public health in the UK, as long-term exposure to air pollution can cause chronic conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases as well as lung cancer, leading to reduced life expectancy” (UK Govt, 2018).

The UK and Scotland routinely fail regulatory air quality standards in specific cities. In 2015, the Scottish Government published the Cleaner Air for Scotland Strategy (CAFS) [5.1], which aspired for Scotland to have “the best air quality in Europe”. UofG research has supported SEPA in developing modelling tools to assess the likely effect on air quality of introduction of Low Emission Zones (LEZ) and changes to traffic emissions [5.1, p8]. Research on the health impacts of establishing the first LEZs in Scotland, specifically targeting pollution emissions linked to road traffic and local air quality management plans, is a key objective [5.1, p25].

Route to introduction of Emulator into the National Modelling Framework

The CAFS [5.1, pp16-22] set out the National Modelling Framework (NMF) to provide the quantitative evidence to support decisions affecting the planning, design and management of Scotland’s public spaces and transport network. The Scottish Government, Transport Scotland and SEPA have been working collaboratively to develop the NMF with a range of partners including UofG (Scott, Lee and Anderson), learning from the success of early pilot work using ADMS and the UofG emulator in Aberdeen.

SEPA staff described the initial statistical analysis (M.Sc. project by Sim) of the ADMS-Urban baseline model in the Aberdeen Pilot report in 2017. “A detailed statistical analysis of the Base Run was carried out as part of a Glasgow University M.Sc. project (Sim), It was found that using Functional PCA, Clustering Regression and Deming Regression that the ADMS model does not perform well at Wellington Road, but does perform well at other monitoring locations...” [5.2, p100].

Providing the evidence base to improve Scotland’s Air Quality

Following the Aberdeen pilot, the Scottish Government’s NMF launched in 2015. UofG research is incorporated into both the NMF and decision support system implemented within SEPA in three ways:

  1. The emulator code allows SEPA to estimate the risk (probability) of compliance failure (i.e., of exceeding EU directive levels) under different emissions scenarios, specifically the key effects of meteorological conditions on exceedances. This is essential in developing emission reduction strategies for use at city level and has shown circumstances, under which emission control will not deliver the expected improvement in air quality due to prevailing meteorological conditions [5.3].

SEPA has been working with Professor Marian Scott (University of Glasgow) and Dr Francesco Finazzi (University of Bergamo) on a method to help address model uncertainty. Their method, [3.3], uses a statistical technique to describe the behaviour of the air quality model. This allows model results to be estimated for many more sets of input data than it is usually feasible to run. SEPA have implemented this method to establish the risks posed to air quality predictions from uncertainty in future emissions and wind speeds. …the technique will be applied to future detailed LEZ modelling. In this way we will be able to estimate the risk to the success of any measures to improve air quality” [5.4, p20].

  1. Design of the LEZ’s in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen, the NMF requires that the correct evidence (data and modelling) is available to support decision making [5.5, Section 2]. Detailed models supported by the UofG emulator for each city provided evidence for taking direct actions at the city scale to reduce street-level emissions. The Glasgow LEZ was launched in Dec 2018, with a 5-year phased implementation of restrictions.

  2. Visualisations developed in [3.1,3.2,3.3] are now in routine use within SEPA for Glasgow [5.6] and Aberdeen for evaluation of air quality monitoring.

This UofG emulator and the risk modelling permits SEPA to explore the impact of a variety of measures such as changes in vehicle classes and traffic on air quality, and thus to directly feed into management measures. “ *The emulator has been invaluable in characterising the behaviour of the ADMS model under a wide range of standard input values (emissions and wind speed and direction)*” [5.6].

Impacts on health

Ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease (including stroke) and chronic lower respiratory diseases are leading causes of death and ill health in Scotland and are clinical and public health priorities for NHS Scotland and Scottish Government. UofG research has shown that improvements in air quality result in significant population health benefits. Lee’s expertise in quantifying the epidemiological evidence as to the impacts of air pollution on public health has informed policy and LEZ design. Prof. Lee’s research [3.7] has provided evidence of impacts but also highlighted that “Differences in the types of study carried out in Scotland make cross comparison of their findings difficult” requiring improved statistical design of studies. [5.7 p6, 5.8] proposing further developments. “ Professor Lee has been a key researcher on air pollution and health in Scotland in particular and has contributed significantly to improving our understanding in Scotland of the nature of the impacts and how intervention measures may lead to future improvements in preventable morbidity and mortality.” [5.8] In recognition of this work, Prof. Lee was invited to become a member of the UK Government’s Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants in April 2020.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

  1. [All evidence, including hyperlinked items, made available in PDF format]Cleaner Air for Scotland – annual progress report 2017/18 https://www.gov.scot/publications/cleaner-air-scotland-annual-progress-report-2017-18/

  2. Aberdeen Air Quality Modelling Pilot Project Technical Report July 2017 http://www.scottishairquality.scot/assets/documents/NMF-Aberdeen-Pilot-Project-Report.pdf

  3. Email from Unit Manager, OceanMet Unit, Scottish Environment Protection Agency

  4. SEPA Cleaner Air for Scotland – National Modelling Framework. Air Quality Evidence Report – Edinburgh Nov 2018 https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/downloads/file/27886/cleaner-air-for-scotland-national-modelling-framework

  5. Transport Scotland Environmental Audit & Advisory Framework Transport Scotland Task 1 - Developing Cost Estimates for Low Emission Zones in Scotland. September 2017

  6. Testimonial: Principal Scientist (Air), Scottish Environment Protection Agency

  7. CAFS Review 2019 Health and Environment Working Group (HEWG). Final Report. June 2019. http://www.scottishairquality.scot/assets/documents/Health-Environment-Working-Group-Report.pdf

  8. Testimonial: Consultant Epidemiologist, Health Protection Scotland

Submitting institution
University of Glasgow
Unit of assessment
10 - Mathematical Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Environment agencies invest substantial financial and staff resources in monitoring UK river networks to improve water quality at a time of increased financial pressures. UofG developed innovative statistical modelling tools to interrogate existing Environment Agency data and assess the ability of current and future monitoring network designs to provide evidence on water quality trends. This evidence crucially demonstrated to the European Commission that UK water quality monitoring policies were compliant with European directives and enabled the Environment Agency to design a new spatially representative network improving water quality monitoring within practical and budget constraints.

2. Underpinning research

Context:

The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD), 2000/60/EC (European

Parliament, 2000), established an integrated framework for the protection of surface waters. Each member state is required to demonstrate compliance with these EU directives through statutory reporting of water quality monitoring. While the position beyond Brexit is unclear, regulation and compliance to maintain/improve water quality will continue through, for example, the UK government 25-year environment plan.

Claire Miller and Marian Scott have been developing innovative spatiotemporal statistical methods to investigate trends in water quality data over the past 15 years. Work from 2009 has focussed on the specific challenges presented by river network data including the river flow and connectedness of the river structure [3.1, 3.2]. The statistical methods in [3.3] were one of the first illustrations of incorporating correlated error structures into generalised additive models to efficiently estimate temporal trends and seasonal patterns in water quality. In response to [3.3] the Risk and Forecasting Manager of the Environment Agency (at that time), Robert Willows, recognised the value of these statistical approaches developed to efficiently investigate complex spatiotemporal trends in river water quality and approached Miller and colleagues regarding a collaborative research project.

Statistical analysis of water quality monitoring:

The resultant research collaboration (jointly funded between EA and UofG) developed statistical models to describe spatial and temporal patterns of nutrients within river networks in England and Wales. The statistical research evaluated the changes in nutrient patterns (based on nitrogen/phosphorus weekly to monthly measurements) in river water over time (over a 20–40 year period up until 2010) and spatially for each of 59 large hydrological areas to identify evidence of past and current trends in the concentration of nutrients in rivers, and how these vary between catchments [3.1]. The research was conducted by Miller & Scott and colleagues and Ana-Maria Magdalina (PDRA, UofG, June 2009–June 2010) in collaboration with Willows and his team between August 2009 and April 2013.

Re-designing monitoring networks:

Following this, UofG developed statistical methods and software [3.2] to identify common spatiotemporal patterns within river network nutrient data (October 2011–April 2016, Kelly Gallacher, PhD Glasgow with Miller, Scott & Willows, and Linda Pope and John Douglass (evidence directorate EA) and colleagues at the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)).

Three online open access web applications were produced using [3.2] to enable the EA to explore and utilise their river water quality data and to investigate the effect of reducing the monitoring network size on water quality monitoring, potentially saving effort and cost (August 2017−January 2018, Craig Wilkie PDRA (UofG) with Miller & Scott & Douglass, with Sian Davies and Hannah Green (EA)). The online apps are based on monthly/seasonal measurements of nitrogen and phosphorus river water quality recorded at individual river monitoring sites over time. Predictions and related uncertainty information are improved by incorporating information on the flow direction of the river and monitoring site connectedness (e.g. where water from site 1 flows to site 2 but site 2 does not flow to site 1). This information indicates that very dense monitoring networks are not required in order to obtain robust information on water quality. Monitoring efforts can be substantially reduced while still retaining high power to detect changes.

Simulation studies [3.4] for spatially representative GRTS (Generalised Random Tesselation Stratified) designs provide evidence for the appropriate size and design for new monitoring networks (August−September 2018 with Marnie Mclean PDRA (UofG) with Miller, Scott, Davies, Green).

3. References to the research

Outputs [include DOIs or ePrints link] (* signals best indicator of quality)

  1. * Miller, C., Magdalina, A.-M., Willows, R., Bowman, A., Scott, E., Lee, D., Burgess, C., Pope, L., Pannullo, F., and Haggarty, R. (2014) Spatiotemporal statistical modelling of long-term change in river nutrient concentrations in England & Wales. Science of the Total Environment, 466-7, pp. 914-923. (doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.113). Partly funded by collaborative project UofG & EA, Cl, GBP61,711 funding contribution from EA, 1st Mar 2009–30th Oct 2010, SC080041.

  2. a. ** Gallacher, K., Miller, C., Scott, E.M., Willows, R., Pope, L., Douglass, J (2016). Flow-directed PCA for monitoring networks. Environmetrics, 28, 2, (doi: 10.1002/env.2434) Wiley-TIES best paper award 2017. Partly funded by: EPSRC PhD Doctoral Training Grant (K. Gallacher), Oct 2011–Jan 2016.

b. Software development funded by SECURE EPSRC network project, GBP22,277, 1st Nov 2015–30th April 2016 and EPSRC IAA, GBP10,297, 1st Aug 2017–31st Jan 2018. River network case study to inform strategic monitoring review. These have resulted in online web applications for EA:

  1. ** Ferguson, C.A., Carvalho, L., Scott, E.M., Bowman, A.W. and Kirika, A. (2008) Assessing ecological responses to environmental change using statistical models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45(1), pp. 193–203. (doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01428.x)

  2. McLean, M., Miller, C. and Scott E.M. (2018) technical report. Funded by EA and EPSRC IAA funding, GBP16,000(EA) / GBP2,500 (IAA), 1st Aug 2019–30th Sept 2018. Investigation of the impact of GRTS river sampling designs. Project collaborators: Sian Davies, Hannah Green, Mike Dunbar, Stuart Homann (EA). Available on request from host institution.

4. Details of the impact

UofG research has provided the evidence base in support of UK policy regulating environmental water quality, and to inform the design of new monitoring networks: reducing monitoring budgets while improving the spatial representativeness of any network.
Input to policy at a European Union and UK scale. UofG statistical evidence illustrated that monitoring practice by Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), as implemented by UK regulatory agencies for monitoring water quality, did not require strengthening from 2014 onwards. Infraction proceedings against the UK by the EU (which would have been ‘ time consuming, expensive and politically embarrassing’[5.1]) were averted by evidencing that current practice within the UK to protect water quality did not require strengthening (at a time when the EU Directorate-General for Environment believed that UK action programmes were too lenient) [5.1].
Details: The results from [3.1] were used in statutory reporting by DEFRA to the European Commission [5.2]. At the time there was a question over whether the UK policy for monitoring was appropriate. Willows and his colleagues at DEFRA presented the statistical evidence from [3.1] to meetings with the European Commission and the Environment Directorate-General for the EU with final reporting in Dec 2013. This enabled DEFRA to understand the extent to which UK policies to reduce nutrient loads from both agricultural and non-agricultural sources were succeeding.
The results from this work evidenced that no changes to the UK’s policy were required.
We [DEFRA] have directly drawn on the results published by Miller et al (2014) Science of the Total Environment, 466–467, 914–923 in our statutory reporting to the EU Commission’ [5.2]
Input to policy at a UK national scale. UofG research informed EA internal planning to shape their strategic monitoring review, from 2016 onwards. Specifically, UofG research informed the design of a smaller spatially representative monitoring network, using GRTS (reducing from 1000’s to 100’s of monitoring sites) which was approved in February 2020 for implementation from 2021 onwards [5.3].
Details: The statistical tools and evidence in [3.2] and [3.4] have informed the Environment Agency (EA) about their ability to evaluate pressures on water quality from reduced monitoring networks, as part of a goal to produce a more spatially representative network whilst making cost savings [5.4]. Specifically, these tools and evidence have informed EA internal planning to shape their strategic monitoring review and enabled them to quantitatively evaluate the ability of a smaller river water quality monitoring network to provide relevant indicators of water status and change over time. [3.2, 3.4] ‘gave [the EA] confidence that useful broad scale information could be generated from a smaller network’ and [3.4] has ‘given [the EA] confidence around the likely network size and helped [the EA] explore indicative costs’ [5.4] for a new network, based on applying a spatially representative (GRTS) design tool. Building on the work at UofG, EA has now proposed a new network design, and is currently testing the proposed new monitoring sites. The work by UofG has ‘largely been used to provide judgement on an appropriate network size and [design]’ [5.4], and ‘the results directly influenced the final monitoring network design implemented by the EA.’ [5.3] UofG provided expert review [5.3, 5.5] of the proposed new network and EA staff have been assessing proposed monitoring sites for accessibility throughout 2020 . ‘The UofG work was critical in providing the necessary evidence and confidence that the new network design was the right one. Monitoring of sites in the new network is expected to start in January 2021.’ [5.3]
This was achieved through collaborative work with the EA as follows:
Training and knowledge transfer workshops:
- A workshop was held with 15 EA colleagues in London (2016) to demonstrate the statistical software (and training documentation) in [3.2]. Linda Pope from the EA stated, ‘We have had very positive feedback on the workshop which has stimulated a lot of thoughts on how we might use these techniques in the future.’ [5.6]
- This led to a further focussed UofG-led workshop with 8 EA colleagues in Birmingham (April 2017), organised by Sian Davies (EA – an attendee at the April 2016 workshop), to explore the potential for statistical modelling to inform the EA’s review of the size of their water quality monitoring network [5.3]. Follow-up resulted in development of online web applications [3.2].
A webinar was held (May 2018) to demonstrate the use of the three online web applications [3.2] to disseminate results more widely with the technical team for the strategic water quality monitoring review within the EA. The webinar was very positively received with the visualisation tools assisting participants to understand the web application functionality and underpinning statistical analysis [5.7]. This webinar led directly to the commissioning of a follow-up project and report to assess GRTS designs [3.4], and wider interest in the online applications developed from other EA colleagues working in air quality analysis.
Advisory board: Following these three workshops UofG Miller and Scott were asked to participate in EA external strategic advisory board [5.8] to discuss implications and next steps in network review and design following [3.4].
Review and critique of new network design: UofG (Miller and Scott) were invited to peer review and critique the EA GRTS designed river monitoring network funded by EA [5.3,5.5,5.9]. ‘Through 2019, the planning and design of the new monitoring network was carried out by EA supported through consultation with Statistics at UofG.’ with risk assessments for new sites carried out throughout 2020 before planned implementation in 2021 [5.3].
Current and future work: has involved generalisation of the online web applications to enable user practitioners to upload their own data to assess spatiotemporal patterns in quality [5.4], clusters of patterns and relationships and the implications for reducing the size of monitoring networks. These have been developed initially aimed at the EA and are being extended with international collaborators. The online web applications enable informed management decision making without a requirement for statistical expertise to use them.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[all available in PDF format]

5.1 Emails from Risk and Forecasting manager at the Environment Agency

5.2 Letter from Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) 20th March 2014. Nitrates and pesticides policy team leader for water quality

5.3 Testimonial from Environment Agency – Technical lead, river surveillance network (GRTS)

5.4 Testimonial from Environment Agency – Senior Advisor, Environment & Business Directorate (Water, Land & Biodiversity)

5.5 Peer review and critique of Environment Agency (EA) GRTS designed river monitoring network (April 2020) Contract reference no 308645

5.6 Email feedback from Knowledge Transfer workshop April 2016

5.7 Email feedback from Knowledge Transfer webinar May 2018

5.8 Minutes from Environment Agency Strategic Advisory Group meeting, 3rd Dec 2018

5.9 Tender specification, written by EA, for contract work with UofG

Submitting institution
University of Glasgow
Unit of assessment
10 - Mathematical Sciences
Summary impact type
Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Each year, cultural and environmental organisations around the world use accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) to determine the age of items containing organic (carbon-based) material, a process known as radiocarbon (14C) dating. Within the sector globally, >GBP17.5 million/annum is spent on procuring radiocarbon dates. UofG research has developed the extensive set of radiocarbon reference materials to ensure the consistency of 14C measurements made in laboratories around the world. UofG’s research designed the experiments and developed the statistical models that allowed the formal characterisation of these unique reference materials. These are now recognised as the international standards, underpinning the laboratory accuracy and precision of radiocarbon dating in support of heritage and environmental investigations around the globe.

2. Underpinning research

The long half-life of radiocarbon has proved revolutionary in cultural and environmental heritage activities such as archaeology and forensic science, by facilitating measurement of the age of an artefact based on its radiocarbon content measured through a complex process. Quality assurance and quality control are vital aspects to ensure the accuracy and precision of any measured radiocarbon date. Prior to UofG research, no set of natural reference materials existed for the radiocarbon dating community. Our research has focussed on contributing natural reference materials, characterising them through the statistical design of global experiments and providing a full quantification of uncertainties: these reference materials now underpin global radiocarbon measurement [3.1, 3.4] and are fundamental to good laboratory practice.

UofG statistical research has led every step of the process in creating the radiocarbon reference materials, including: identifying plausible natural materials for testing: preparing and designing the testing protocol (with the UofG Radiocarbon Laboratory) through a series of statistically designed, hierarchical inter-comparisons (3 global inter-comparisons since 2000) [3.1, 3.2, 3.4]) involving laboratories based in more than 50 countries with each inter-comparison involving between 60 and 75 laboratories. On receipt of the radiocarbon results from the participating laboratories, UofG statistical researchers developed novel hierarchical random effects models to characterise each material. These take into account laboratory estimated variation and biases before estimation of the consensus age and associated uncertainty. UofG contribution to measurement standardisation is based on two aspects, the sampling and design of experiments to identify and characterise these reference materials and the full statistical uncertainty quantification associated with their measurement.

Using the database of the entire set of intercomparison results, statistical research based on random effects models has delivered a full accounting of uncertainty as a function of material and age (>45,000 years to modern) which has been used in the global calibration curve to specify a priori the variability [3.4, 3.5]. Each past inter-comparison— the fourth (FIRI, 1997−2002), fifth (VIRI, 2004−2008) and sixth (SIRI, 2013−2017) [3.6] —has expanded the repository of reference materials that are available for laboratories (on request) for quality assurance purposes. This unique database has allowed the UofG contribution to the Global international calibration curve (IntCal20) which is used to calibrate all radiocarbon measurements to a common, calendar timescale. During the calibration curve estimation, prior specification of sources of uncertainty are required (based on replicate measurements). UofG analysis of results from VIRI and SIRI were used to address prior uncertainties in the development of IntCal20 [3.5, 3.6].

UofG statistical research has been fundamental to the development of metrological principles and good practice for Radiocarbon laboratories and users. We have led the way in the development of statistical models for the complex data generated in laboratory inter-comparisons, and specifically how the material consensus value is evaluated with its associated uncertainty. These approaches have since been adopted in other cosmogenic isotope communities, including beryllium and aluminium, which are key in geological dating [CRONUS−EARTH 3.7]. UofG statistical research has demonstrated several key findings for end users such as archaeologists (in national museums, in rescue excavations, in cultural heritage), geologists, the antiquities and nuclear industry sectors [3.3]. Findings included:

  • The evidence for significant laboratory biases and their magnitude

  • That laboratory quoted errors are frequently underestimated, and how they should be adjusted to be realistic using error multipliers

  • The statistical quantification of uncertainty, due to both natural materials and laboratory procedures [3.1, 3.2]

3. References to the research

Outputs (include DOIs or ePrints link):

  1. Scott, E.M. (ed.), (2003). The third international radiocarbon inter-comparison (TIRI) and the fourth international radiocarbon inter-comparison (FIRI) 1990–2002: results, analyses, and conclusions, Radiocarbon, 45 (2), 135−408.

  2. Scott, E.M., Cook, G.T. and Naysmith, P. (2010) The fifth international radiocarbon intercomparison (VIRI): an assessment of laboratory performance in stage 3. Radiocarbon 52, 859−865. doi:10.1017/S003382220004594X.

  3. Scott, E.M., Cook, G.T., Naysmith, P. (2017). Should archaeologists care about 14C inter-comparisons? Why? A summary report on SIRI. Radiocarbon, 59(5), 1589−1596. doi: 10.1017/RDC.2017.12.

  4. * Scott, E.M, Naysmith, P. and Cook, G.T. (2018) Why do we need 14C inter-comparisons?: The Glasgow 14C inter-comparison series, a reflection over 30 years. Quaternary Geochronology, 43, pp. 72−82. ( doi:10.1016/j.quageo.2017.08.001)

  5. Scott, E.M., Cook, G.T., Naysmith, P. and Staff, R. (2019) Learning from the wood samples in ICS, TIRI, FIRI, VIRI and SIRI.  Radiocarbon, 61(5), 1293−1304. doi:10.1017/RDC.2019.12

  6. * Heaton, T.J., Blaauw, M., Blackwell, P.G., Bronk Ramsey, C., Reimer, P.J. and Scott, E.M. (2020) The IntCal20 approach to radiocarbon calibration curve construction: a new methodology using Bayesian splines and errors-in-variables. Radiocarbon, doi: 10.1017/RDC.2020.46

  7. Jull, A.J.T., Scott, E.M. and Bierman, P. (2015) The CRONUS−Earth inter-comparison for cosmogenic isotope analysis. Quaternary Geochronology, 26, pp. 3−10. http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/229024/

* = best indicators of research quality

4. Details of the impact

There are approximately 100 radiocarbon laboratories worldwide, each of which relies on fully characterised reference materials to quality assure the >50,000 radiocarbon determinations made annually. Radiocarbon laboratories globally operate a combined model of commercial contract work and applied research and development [5.1−5.4]. The reputation of this global community of laboratories is dependent on the use of the unique certified reference materials stemming from UofG research. Over GBP17.5 million worth of radiocarbon dating is commissioned globally each year, with many end-users working in rescue archaeology, geology (tracing gaseous leaks and hazards), environmental sciences such as tracing ocean currents, in the nuclear sector, and in forensic and material sciences. The UofG-led quality assurance research programme provides the underpinning certified reference materials for all of these analyses globally. These reference materials are key to ensuring measurement consistency and quality across all 100 labs worldwide and their commercial clients. Impact has been delivered in 4 key areas, detailed below.

  1. Changing professional laboratory practice

UofG statistical research is recognised as providing global leadership in the design and organisation of radiocarbon inter-comparisons [5.1, 5.2], enabling standardisation of quality assurance and quality control processes around the world. *“ Without exaggeration, the inter-comparison exercises that you have coordinated have been essential to the Quality Assurance /Control process in our (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) laboratory”. [5.3].

For large AMS laboratories such as the Keck AMS Facility at UC Irvine “The major impact of the Glasgow-based intercomparison studies for our laboratory has been that they provide a comprehensive set of internationally recognized standard materials … [and] represent a unique resource for testing all stages of radiocarbon sample preparation and measurement including the initial chemical pretreatment” [5.4]. This laboratory undertakes in excess of 10,000 research unknowns per annum (two thirds of which are commercial samples, including 1,000 samples for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s global program to monitor CO2 sources and sinks).

Each UofG reference material is reported with a certified consensus value and uncertainty, evaluated using statistical models developed by UofG [3.1−3.2; 3.5−3.6], allowing each individual laboratory to assess their ongoing performance [5.3], and test any new laboratory developments. This delivers improved laboratory precision and accuracy for their commercial customers [5.4, 5.5]. “Any small interlaboratory offsets that may exist are no longer hidden in the scatter of less precise data, and distinguishing these effects from real regional 14C differences is becoming a significant concern” [Keck AMS Facility, 5.4]. Participation in the laboratory intercomparisons is used to demonstrate that the lab results meet international norms for compliance with national regulators [5.2;5.6]. The Director of the US National Science Foundation AMS Laboratory states: “ *It is important to have a continuous updating of the intercomparison materials, to try to test the new types of machines currently being developed (such as) gas-ion source AMS machines” [5.2] under development for the commercial market.

The UofG research has also been adopted by other communities in the characterisation of their reference materials. The basic statistical model [3.1] is used by the International Atomic Energy Agency in characterising their Reference Materials for Radionuclides [5.7], while the CRONUS intercomparison materials [3.7] for the study of cosmogenic 14C, 10Be and 26Al [5.2] are used in geological hazard studies of volcanoes and earthquakes.

  1. Archaeological Calibration

The radiocarbon community and all users use an internationally accepted and recognised calibration curve, which translates the measured radiocarbon age and its uncertainty to a calendar (or more specifically a range of calendar) ages. A major revision of the calibration curve was published in 2020 (IntCal20) [3.6], and in this revision, results from three of the UofG intercomparisons have been used to inform key statistical model parameters (prior specifications of variation) to produce the global calibration curve and uncertainty estimates [5.1].

  1. Cultural heritage

Directly and indirectly, all users of 14C dates are impacted by this work, as it underpins the precision and accuracy of 14C dating. Radiocarbon dating is widely used in archaeological investigations. Historic England’s National Head of Research stated: “[T]he intercomparisons and the reference standards … have enabled the construction of robust, reliable and readily comparable chronologies, ensuring clear value for money for the development industry which funds the great majority of archaeological investigation in England (a market currently worth an estimated £200M annually)” [5.8]. The value of these studies to the field of archaeology has been acknowledged by Historic England through the provision of both known-age material and financial support for both VIRI and SIRI [5.8]. Radiocarbon dating has had a significant impact in changing our understanding of human history. The Principal Archaeological Research Curator for National Museums of Scotland states: “The shocking discrepancy between the dates for a cemetery population obtained by the laboratories was a wake-up call to the whole audience about the necessity for rigorous inter-laboratory comparisons and the maintenance of the highest standards at all stages of radiocarbon dating” [2017 Society for American Archaeology conference in Vancouver, 5.5)

  1. Forensics and materials science

The world-leading analytical accuracy in bone dating, evidenced through these intercomparisons, of the UofG Radiocarbon Laboratory, has delivered critical age data on over 280 unidentified human remains [5.9] for forensic investigations in jurisdictions throughout UK, with international work in the Falkland Islands and Republic of Ireland since 2014. In Ireland our data provided significant assistance to the investigation into deaths of children at Mother-and-Baby homes from 1920s−1960s [5.10]). The research facilitates investigative decision-making and criminal convictions, reduces police time wastage and financial expenditure; and helps alleviate emotional trauma for victims’ families by providing vital information needed for closure. This global reference material research has also underpinned the development of a specific whisky radiocarbon dating technique by the UofG Radiocarbon Laboratory [5.11] being used to authenticate claims of age.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[PDFs made available]

  1. Testimonial, International Steering Committee of the IntCal group

  2. Testimonial, NSF AMS Laboratory, Arizona

  3. Testimonial, National Ocean Sciences AMS Facility, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

  4. Testimonial, Keck AMS facility, UC Irvine

  5. Testimony, National Museums of Scotland

  6. Testimonial, Ruđer Bošković Institute.

  7. IAEA Reference Control Materials for 14C measurements. RS_IAEA-C1 to IAEA-C9.Rev.01 / 2014-03-24

  8. Testimonial, Historic England

  9. Database of police reports available on request from HEI

  10. 5th Interim Report from Mother and Baby Homes Commission of Investigation for Irish Government.

  11. Testimonial, Bonhams Auctioneers.

Submitting institution
University of Glasgow
Unit of assessment
10 - Mathematical Sciences
Summary impact type
Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
Yes

1. Summary of the impact

Groundwater contamination creates serious environmental and potential health issues. UofG researchers developed statistical modelling and visualisation tools subsequently used by Shell to develop GroundWater Spatiotemporal Data Analysis Tool (GWSDAT), a user-friendly software application to map groundwater pollution. Shell consultants worldwide have used GWSDAT for many years to make well-founded decisions on the management of groundwater, ensuring environmental protection and delivering multi-million dollar cost savings. Since 2014, new tools have been developed and implemented in GWSDAT through a Shell/UofG collaborative project. Many other organisations in the oil and gas, land reclamation and regulatory sectors have now adopted GWSDAT to improve risk assessment, aid decision-making on remediation, and deliver substantial financial savings.

2. Underpinning research

ContextPollutants which leach into groundwater pose significant environmental threats and potential health concerns. Where there is a risk, boreholes are usually drilled at various spatial locations to allow direct measurement of groundwater pollution. The challenge is to use these measurements at particular times and spatial locations to identify the presence, location, and shape of any pollution plume over the entire spatial region and time period. After a pollution episode, a second challenge is to assess the evidence for the success of any active remediation efforts, or the effects of natural attenuation over time. In addressing both of these challenges, standard historical methods of analysis have generally involved the examination of trends at individual boreholes and spatial patterns at individual time points.

Relevant research at UofG

UofG’s Bowman has a long-running research theme on statistical methods that allow the trends and patterns in data to be modelled through flexible regression models. This includes spatiotemporal data [3.2].

Bowman also developed software tools for the creation of interactive visualisations, provided in the ‘rpanel’ package [3.1] for the widely used R statistical computing environment. Visualisation methods for spatiotemporal data were also included in Bowman’s recent article in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society [3.6].

UofG’s Evers has extensive experience of both Bayesian and computational methods in statistics which led to new research on models for spatiotemporal data [3.3].

GWSDAT version 1

The employment by Shell of a UofG PhD graduate (Giannitrapani, completed 2005) transferred this methodology to the company, who were at that time seeking practical tools for the interpretation of monitoring data from boreholes at oil and gas installations around the world. The GWSDAT software tool was created in 2009 by Shell staff, using the modelling and visualisation tools described in [3.1] and [3.2]. This was intended for use principally by Shell staff and consultants.

Further UofG research

Shell part-funded a UofG PhD student (Molinari, completed 2014) to strengthen the methodological foundation of GWSDAT. This involved a spatiotemporal p-spline smoothing model, implemented in a fully Bayesian framework. Rapid delivery of results was a key requirement, and this was achieved through innovative application of linear algebra techniques. The model and computational methods are described in [3.3].

GWSDAT version 2

These methods were incorporated into GWSDAT by Shell staff and subsequently released in 2014 as open-source software, for use by any interested parties.

Further UofG research

Shell part-funded a second PhD student (Low, née McLean, completed 2019) who established that a spatiotemporal model can deliver more accurate and informative estimation of a pollution plume than standard spatial or temporal methods alone [3.5]. Design issues were also addressed through optimal sampling strategies (from a spatiotemporal perspective) to maximise the use of resources, the removal of monitoring points when a network of locations is reduced and the addition of new points when a network is expanded. [3.4]. This research is being developed further by another PhD student (Radvanyi, started 2020), fully funded by Shell.

GWSDAT version 3

As the use of GWSDAT grew, a further new version of the tool was created in a joint venture of the UofG and Shell. This was released in 2018 as an on-line tool ( gwsdat.net) but is also available in desktop form where remote or secure use is required.

3. References to the research

  1. Bowman, AW, Crawford, E, Alexander, G & Bowman, RW (2007). rpanel: simple interactive controls for R functions using the tcltk package. Journal of Statistical Software 17, issue 9. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v017.i09

  2. Bowman, AW, Giannitrapani, M & Scott, EM (2009). Spatiotemporal smoothing and sulphur dioxide trends over Europe. Applied Statistic https://www.un\-igrac.org/resource/groundwater\-monitoring\-country\-profile\-indonesia, 58, 5, 737−752 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2009.00671.x

  3. Evers, L and Molinari, DA and Bowman, AW and Jones, WR and Spence, MJ (2015). Efficient and automatic methods for flexible regression on spatiotemporal data, with applications to groundwater monitoring. Environmetrics, 26, 431−441. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2347

  4. McLean, MI (2018). Spatio-temporal models for the analysis and optimisation of groundwater quality monitoring networks. PhD thesis, University of Glasgow. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/38975/

  5. McLean, M, Evers, L, Bowman, AW, Bonte, M and Jones, WR (2019). Statistical modelling of groundwater contamination monitoring data: a comparison of spatial and spatiotemporal methods. Science of the Total Environment 652, 1339−1346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.231

  6. Bowman, AW (2019). Graphics for uncertainty. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 182, 403−418. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12379

4. Details of the impact

GWSDAT is used worldwide by major industries and government agencies to (a) protect environmental quality, (b) provide a scientific basis for decision-making, and (c) contribute to substantial cost savings. Users are able to map sites in detail, identify regions of high contamination, pinpoint locations where further monitoring is required, and evaluate changes due to management interventions. The following examples have been chosen to illustrate the nature and size of the benefits. The later material demonstrates the reach of the software.

Shell

In 2013, Shell identified that GWSDAT was used as a primary means of evaluating groundwater status by around 200 consultants in 70 countries, delivering the evidence base for environmental decisions and producing cost savings amounting to over USD3 million per year. In 2019, Shell confirmed that:

“The cost savings, according to one survey of environmental engineers, run into millions of dollars. These come from accelerating the analysis of complex data sets, identifying spills earlier, reducing the reliance on engineering treatment solutions, closing out of longer-term monitoring, and simplifying the preparation of reports. More importantly though, the tool has improved the way we monitor groundwater around our sites and assets.” [5.1b]

Shell’s VP for Environment stated in 2020:

“The partnership between Shell Global Solutions and the University of Glasgow on GWSDAT is a fantastic collaboration which has improved Shell’s management and interpretation of groundwater data leading to value creation through more effective and sustainable remediation.” [5.1a]

Environmental Protection Agency, USA

Edwards Air Force Base is a high-profile aircraft R&D site. In 2017, there was considerable controversy on whether a groundwater contamination plume was stable and whether the decision to shut down hydraulic extraction had been correct. Existing analysis was inconclusive. EPA then used GWSDAT. This convincingly demonstrated the narrowing of the plume while the extraction system was operational and enlargement when it was shut off. This enabled well-directed environmental decisions on a long-term remedy, involving multi-million dollar investment. The EPA hydrogeologist commented:

“I now recommend the software for use by project managers and their contractors across all the EPA regions in the USA. Its ability to provide real insight quickly and objectively is a huge asset.” [5.2]

Dept. of Environmental Conservation, New York State

At a Long Island site, historical releases of gasoline related compounds (BTEX) raised concerns about effects on the groundwater which is the sole-source aquifer for nearly 1.3 million residents. In 2018, the Professional Geologist stated:

“GWSDAT has been implemented at the subject site to answer important questions about the residual nature and fate of the BTEX plume and ... to direct further investigation activities with precision. As a result, fewer wells have been required to be installed, which resulted in savings of at least $150,000 in drilling costs. Moreover, GWSDAT will be used to support future decision-making that could save millions of dollars’ worth of remediation work.”

“GWSDAT is an invaluable tool for sites that pose a threat to public health.” [5.3]

Remediation of chlorinated solvent sites

RSK Group is a major environmental consultancy with offices across Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Western Asia. Since 2016 RSK Group have managed a project involving underground leakage from a storage tank at a metal-working factory site. GWSDAT clearly demonstrated the positive impact of remediation. In another project, GWSDAT demonstrated significant decline in pollution but highlighted one location where contamination remained high. The RSK Benelux Technical Director, commented:

“*GWSDAT is an excellent tool …[which] ... provides a firm scientific basis for good decision-making. It is the only tool I know which can perform analysis across space and time simultaneously. … I continually direct my staff towards it for analysis ...*” [5.4]

Multiple sites in Canada

Stantec Consulting have used GWSDAT extensively in Canada since 2016. At two different petrol station sites, contamination was shown to be under control, leading to shutdown of remediation and annual savings of USD192,000 and USD36,000 respectively. Elsewhere, after a pipeline release in an environmentally sensitive area, GWSDAT provided evidence which allowed the monitoring programme to be amended, providing annual savings of USD155,000. [5.5]

A retail site near Copenhagen

This high-end site suffered an undetected and protracted spill from a fuel line. After a full site investigation (2012−2014), subsequent GWSDAT analysis supported the approval of EUR3 million full scale remediation (2014−2015). Thereafter, GWSDAT clearly established the stability of the situation. In 2018 the site was signed off for no further action, allowing the client to regain its full value. The Remediation Services Team Leader commented:

“GWSDAT has proved to be an invaluable tool, not only in the high-profile project described above but in many other projects where a large series of groundwater data is available.” [5.6]

Further details of these selected examples, and others, are available at gwsdat.net/case-studies.

Professional adoption of GWSDAT

The Environment Agency for England issued guidance in 2020 for risk assessment of land contamination with specific direction to GWSDAT as a recommended tool. In the USA, similar endorsement is given by the Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council. [5.7] GWSDAT is distributed and promoted by the American Petroleum Industry (US) [5.8a] and CL:AIRE [5.8b] a UK-based non-profit organisation which promotes the regeneration of contaminated land. EQuIS, one of the world’s most widely used environmental data management software, provides a facility to export data to GWSDAT, enabling easy interface between the two systems [5.8c]. In addition, presentations on GWSDAT are regularly requested at conference events [5.8d] and GWSDAT expertise appears as an explicit expectation in some job advertisements [5.8e].

GWSDAT continues to inform decision making around Groundwater Management

CPD delivered to hydrogeologists, environmental scientists and other professions is a key impact pathway for the uptake of GWSDAT into industry practice. Dissemination includes both invited presentation to the Network for Industrially Contaminated Land in Africa in May 2020 [5.9a] and video training material in the Indonesian language was created by local professionals [5.9b]. GWSDAT has recently been used by projects in Nigeria [5.10a], Egypt [5.10b] and UAE [5.10c] to deliver insight into groundwater conditions in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions, and to inform management decisions to ensure clean, safe water for all.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

  1. a) Corroborating testimonial from VP, Shell Global Solutions. Exemplar quotation to be found at http://gwsdat.net

b) Shell Data Science LinkedIn article. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-case-transparency-daniel-jeavons/

  1. US EPA at Edwards Air Force Base. http://gwsdat.net/edwards-air-force-base/

  2. Dept. of Environmental Conservation, New York State. http://gwsdat.net/new-york-state/

  3. Remediation of chlorinated solvent sites http://gwsdat.net/case-study-rsk-benelux

  4. Multiple sites in Canada http://gwsdat.net/case-study-stantec/

  5. A retail site near Copenhagen http://gwsdat.net/case-study-ejlskov-denmark/

  6. Recommendation of GWSDAT in regulatory compliance

  7. Environment Agency guidance

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/land-contamination-risk-management-lcrm/lcrm-stage-1-risk-assessment.

Reference to GWSDAT at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/land-contamination-risk-management-lcrm/lcrm-stage-1-risk-assessment#GWSDAT

  1. ITRC recommendation https://www.itrcweb.org/gsmc-1/Content/GW%20Stats/Appendix%20D%20Software/D%207%20Groundwater%20Spatio%20Temporal.htm

  2. Professional adoption of GWSDAT

  3. GWSDAT download from American Petroleum industry at https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/environment/clean-water/ground-water/gwsdat (1000 downloads/annum)

  4. GWSDAT download from Cl:AIRE at https://www.claire.co.uk/projects-and-initiatives/gwsdat?showall=1 (200 downloads/annum)

  5. EQuIS software integration of GWSDAT

https://6.6.help.earthsoft.com/6.6/enterprise/index.htm?lib_groundwater_spatio-temporal_da.htm

  1. Statement from Conference Producer, Environment Analyst http://gwsdat.net/conferences\-and\-events/

  2. Sample job advertisement specifying GWSDAT expertise

  3. Capacity building with GWSDAT

  4. Network for Industrially Contaminated Land in Africa (NiCOLA) presentation, May 2020 (300 views since May 2020) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD1_WP30MNQ. Specific mention of UofG contribution from 12:20.

  5. video training material in the Indonesian language was created by local professionals (1000 views since May 2020). http://gwsdat.net/case-study-indonesia/

  6. GWSDAT use in monitoring groundwater quality and contamination in developing countries:

  7. Odoma, A. L., & Ocheri, M. I. (2020). Spatial Variability of Nitrate Levels in Groundwater of Lokoja Town, Kogi State, Nigeria. Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 39(8), 7-11. https://doi.org/10.9734/cjast/2020/v39i830586

  8. Masoud, A.A., Koike, K. Mashaly, H.A., Gergis, F. (2016) Spatio-temporal trends and change factors of groundwater quality in an arid area with peat rich aquifers: Emergence of water environmental problems in Tanta District, Egypt. Journal of Arid Environments 124, 360-376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.08.018

  9. Yilmaz, Abdullah & Shanableh, Abdallah & Al-Ruzouq, Rami & Kayemah, Naseraldin. (2020). Spatio-Temporal Trend Analysis of Groundwater Levels in Sharjah, UAE. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development. Vol. 11. 9-14. https://doi.org/10.18178/ijesd.2020.11.1.1218.

Submitting institution
University of Glasgow
Unit of assessment
10 - Mathematical Sciences
Summary impact type
Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
Yes

1. Summary of the impact

Assessment of animal pain and quality of life is critical to veterinary practice. UofG statistical research underpinned the development of robust, psychometrically valid tools to measure acute pain, chronic pain and health-related impacts on quality of life in dogs and cats. The SME Newmetrica Ltd. was formed in Nov 2013 to commercialise these UofG tools, changing veterinary practice in both assessment of pain and quality of life, and support for decision-making by owners and veterinarians. Animal healthcare companies also use the tools to support regulatory approvals for new products and markets. The Glasgow Composite Measure Pain Scale (CMPS) is considered the gold standard for assessing acute pain in dogs in clinical settings as recommended in World Small Animal Veterinary Association (WSAVA) pain guidelines.

2. Underpinning research

The assessment of pain and quality of life for companion animals is strongly subjective and the need for psychometrically valid statistically designed tools has been long recognised. These tools are essential in facilitating assessment of analgesic strategies and therapeutic agents to improve animal welfare. Statistical models and experimental design principles were developed by Prof. Marian Scott (Mathematics and Statistics) in collaboration with Prof. Jacky Reid, Prof. Andrea Nolan and Lesley Wiseman Orr (Veterinary Science) and have underpinned 2 clinical tools to assess acute pain and 2 owner-centred tools to assess chronic pain and health-related impacts on quality of life in dogs and cats.

Acute pain tools for dogs and cats

UofG statistical research led the development of structured questionnaires, designed and implemented surveys, and formulated psychometrically valid scoring models (using item response theory, principal components and factor analysis). Together, these underpin the creation of the tools. Statistical research has been instrumental in demonstrating the tools’ validity and reliability, essential properties for any tool used in clinical practice and in joint decision making between owners and veterinarians. The original Glasgow Composite Measure Pain Scale (CMPS; 2001) measured acute pain in dogs using psychometric methodology to a level of precision suitable for clinical trials. Statistical measurement theory was used to analyse the six behavioural categories associated with vocalisation, attention to wound, mobility, response to touch, demeanour and posture/activity.

For routine clinical use, where the emphasis is on speed, ease of use, and guidance for analgesia provision, a short form (CMPS-SF) was developed (2007) [3.1]. Subsequently, the acute pain cat tool (CMPS-Feline) was developed in 2014, initially using the same statistical approach as for the CMPS (for dogs) but also incorporating analysis of facial expressions around the eyes, ears and mouth. UofG statistical research used spatial, shape and landmark analysis to identify anatomical landmarks that discriminate between pain-free cats and cats in pain to deliver the simplified facial elements of the tool [3.2-3.4]. UofG research, with a focus on the communication and interpretability of the tool outputs, led in 2017 to the development and quantification of intervention using discriminant analysis techniques, to inform clinical decision-making [3.4]. The resulting measurement scales (for both dogs and cats) have been validated in different medical and surgical conditions (surgery, cancer, osteoarthritis, obesity), using statistical methods for optimal design and analysis and are now being used to validate the analgesic efficacy of pharmaceutical products in clinical trials.

Chronic pain and health related quality of life (HRQL) tools for dogs and cats

The original Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) tool for dogs was a paper-based assessment with 109 different questions and was too long for owners to easily and routinely use. In 2013 UofG statistical research led to the shortening of the tool to first 46 and then 22 items, and demonstrated the validity of a refined shortened assessment, VetMetrica Canine [3.5], which is superior to the original instrument in its ability to distinguish between healthy and unwell animals. The shortened tool was then validated in different medical and surgical conditions (cancer, osteoarthritis, obesity), using statistical methods for optimal design and analysis (including time trend analysis and mixed effect analysis of variance). Both canine and feline tools can be accessed via a mobile phone app for UK/Europe-based veterinary surgeons and pet owners. Subsequent statistical work in 2019 focussed on the creation of population norms for the HRQL dog and cat tools, and in providing alerts for vets and pet owners [3.6]. The feline generic quality-of-life tool was developed in 2018 (HRQL-Feline/VetMetrica Feline), co-funded by Newmetrica and a SMART grant from Scottish Enterprise. Subsequently, disease-specific HRQL tools have been developed as bolt-on modules for clinical assessment (the first disease being osteoarthritis) [3.7].

3. References to the research

4. Details of the impact

Pain is a vital sign and veterinarians widely recognise its central role in animal care and welfare. However, pain assessment in companion animals is challenging due to the inherent barriers to communication, and the species-specific response to and presentation of pain. The UK companion animal population included an estimated 10.9 million cats and 9.9 million dogs in 2019, many of which at some point in their lives may encounter pain through injury, chronic disease or surgery.

Commercialisation

In November 2013, Prof. Reid founded NewMetrica Ltd. (newmetrica.com) to promote the commercialisation and wider adoption of the UofG pain assessment tools within the veterinary community. UofG research knowledge was acquired by NewMetrica through Easy Access IP [5.1]. Further development of the tools and knowledge transfer has been facilitated through NewMetrica with applications in the UK and internationally. Prof. Scott has continued to work with the company as a scientific advisor, developing the methodology for constructing pain and welfare scales based on the creation of single, composite indicators from distinct observable components. NewMetrica has grown to become a recognised leader in the field of pain and HRQL research [5.1] through commercialisation of the tools in two major markets: (A) NewMetrica’s commercial licence arrangements with veterinary pharmaceutical companies have focused on service provision [5.2] to the veterinary community, capacity-building through continuous professional development (CPD) training, fundamental research and development in clinical trials and driving pharmaceutical sales; (B) NewMetrica issues online licences for non-commercial use of both their dog and cat acute pain tools [5.3], supporting clinical and academic research.

Change in professional practice within veterinary profession

International and national impact is evidenced in the change in professional practice as a result of first paper-based, then web-based and now app-based, pain and quality of life assessment tools. The acute tools are widely used in veterinary practices [5.2, 5.3] and veterinary hospitals around the world. The acute dog tool has been translated into Italian, German, Spanish, Norwegian, French and Swedish, addressing the absence of validated pain assessment tools in these languages. Each translation required cross-cultural validation (e.g. Italian in 2018 [5.4]) to define behavioural expressions. These are available via NewMetrica. The English-language version has been reproduced in the WSAVA Guidelines for the Recognition, Assessment and Treatment of Pain, published in May 2014 and endorsed by veterinary associations in 67 countries [5.5]. The full text of the WSAVA pain guidelines have been accessed 38,595 times (with 13,842 PDF downloads) since publication. Our paper [3.3], presenting the introduction of facial aspects to clinical pain assessment acute pain in cats, was recognised for its outstanding contributions in the field of small animal veterinary practice at the BSAVA awards in 2016; Prof. Reid and UofG were recognised for their “Outstanding Contribution to Animal Welfare” at the Ceva Animal Welfare Awards in 2019” [5.6].

The chronic pain/health related quality of life assessment tool for dogs, having undergone significant practical improvement from its original paper-based version, is now available as a web-based app [5.7] and on the Zoetis PetDialog platform [5.8b]. Additional statistical modelling has delivered an alert system to inform owners at stages when veterinary advice should be sought [3.6]. Additionally, a new online tool for cats has been developed, with a new design, in modular form, with a generic Quality of Life (QoL) module, and bolt-on additions for disease-specific characteristics [3.7].

Capacity-building: CPD delivered to drug companies and their partner veterinary practices has been a key impact pathway for the uptake of the tools into clinical practice. For the cat acute tool (CMPS-Feline), CPD meetings supported by Boehringer and in partnership with NewMetrica, have been conducted in 630 different practices and to 3,779 veterinary professionals (vets and vet nurses) in the period January to December 2016. The Glasgow Feline CMPS was very well received, with the majority of attendees adopting it for use in their practices [5.8a]. Boehringer Ingelheim offer an online version of this tool as part of its Metacam® (meloxicam) drug support ( www.metacam-painscale.co.uk), and the accompanying five education webinars, which have been collectively viewed 2,800 times as part of their Boehringer Academy [5.8a]. Similarly, AnimalCare Ltd. offer their own branded versions of the Glasgow CMPS tools for cats and dogs within ‘The PAC’—their ‘Practice Assistance Centre’ available to their network of veterinary practices. Other licensees of cat and dog tools include CEVA Animal Health (2016–2018) and Dechra (2017) [5.2]. Zoetis have also incorporated both HRQL tools in their online platform, PetDialog) [5.8bi] to allow owners to build a profile of their pet and to track their wellbeing.

UofG HRQL domains are included in a Zoetis Petcare Osteoarthritis checklist for owners [5.8bii] used in clinical veterinary practice. The development of the first psychometrically validated acute pain and chronic pain assessment tools for cats and dogs has stimulated and reframed the debate around how pain assessment should be conducted. The acute pain tools are widely used in clinical practice [5.2, 5.3, 5.4]. Online licenses issued between January 2016 and December 2020 for the CMPS-SF tool (dogs) number 2,455 in 76 countries, with the greatest volume in the UK, USA, Spain, Australia and Canada; 90% were specifically for vet practice usage. Over the same period, licenses for the CMPS-Feline tool number 2,206 in 67 countries, primarily USA, UK, Spain and Canada; 93% were specifically for veterinary clinic use [5.2]. These numbers reflect changing practice in veterinary clinics, such as in the use of analgesics.

Vetmetrica is the brand name for NewMetrica’s portfolio of structured questionnaire instruments to measure HRQL in animals. Since launch in January 2014, Vetmetrica.com has registered 169 veterinary practices and 2,179 owners (N.B. pharmaceutical companies also count as a single owner). The tools allow vets to involve owners with clinical follow-up, or to monitor an otherwise healthy pet and alert to a change in health status. To date, 12,194 owner assessments and 2,428 vet assessments have been completed [5.6], showing active engagement with the tool. The chronic pain tools have raised awareness in owners of subtle changes in pet behaviours, thus extending the reach beyond clinical practice to the wider community of pet owners, raising their awareness of pain and welfare issues. **“ [Vetmetrica’s] real time monitoring allows for early identification of problems leading to quicker intervention and the results can be used to help guide owners’ decisions and monitor responses to treatment.” [5.9a]

The Zoetis Petcare Osteoarthritis Checklist now forms part of a North American Vet Tech course (NAVTA Course) [5.8biii, 5.9c]

Regulatory changes: FDA and medicines approval

Since its incorporation Newmetrica has worked closely with the US FDA Center for Veterinary Medicines (CVM) to ensure compliance with the US government’s 21 CFR 11 standard for electronic data capture. This also ensures that the data resulting from the web-based apps and the subsequent statistical modelling meets the stringent quality assurance needed by the FDA CVM [5.10], opening the market for wider use in US clinical trials. These tools have provided the pharmaceutical industry with valid, reliable and responsive outcome measures to assess the efficacy of analgesic compounds in clinical trials. The tools have a role in supporting regulatory approval and are also used in the official documentation that accompanies veterinary products.

Recognising the benefits of HRQL assessment, a number of pharmaceutical companies have also used the UofG/NewMetrica-developed HRQL tools in clinical trials to bring new products to market.

Clinical trials

  1. During 2017–18, Royal Canin (Gard, France) used VetMetrica-Canine in clinical trials of their SATIETY weight management product. Canine overweight and obesity affects nearly 60% of dogs in the UK, reducing quality of life. Use of the tool showed a significant improvement in HRQL as a result of weight loss in dogs on the diet product, which was launched in November 2019 [5.11a].

  2. In 2016 and 2017 Elanco Animal Health Inc (Indiana, USA) used CMPS-SF to gain regulatory approval from the FDA for three different preparations of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory robenacoxib for dogs (both oral and injectable) and cats (oral), demonstrating their effectiveness in the relief of postoperative pain [5.10b]. The same studies were also described in a post-authorisation approval (tablet and injection) from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for a new indication of postoperative pain and inflammation in dogs (2019) [5.11b].

  3. Aratana Therapeutics similarly used CMPS-SF to demonstrate product effectiveness to gain regulatory approval from the FDA for their novel local anaesthetic, bupivacaine liposome injectable suspension (NOCITA) for cranial cruciate ligament surgery. The slow-release formula addresses an unmet need for postoperative pain control post-surgery in the home environment. The Massachusetts Society for the Care & Protection of Animals stated, “ The introduction of NOCITA into the veterinary market has allowed us to greatly improve how we provide post-operative analgesia to our patients”. Between 2016–2018, Aratana earned USD10.8 million specifically for the NOCITA product with year-on-year growth. [5.11c]

  4. Kindred Biosciences, Inc have used the HRQL-Feline tools to demonstrate improvement in QoL in anaemic cats treated with epoCat, (KIND-510a), a long-acting feline recombinant erythropoietin in a 6-week pilot field trial. Cats rapidly increased mean haematocrit and demonstrated statistically significant improvements across all three health-related QoL domains. These results are critical to ongoing clinical trial discussions with the FDA [5.11d].

Conceptual and cultural impact- assessment of pet health and wellbeing: The development of the validated HRQL assessment tools for cats and dogs have stimulated and reframed the debate around how pain assessment and its impact should be conducted. Since the HRQL tools are used by owners in their own home, this has raised awareness in owners of subtle changes in pet behaviour [5.8b, 5.11b] and when combined with the alerting system, these tools enable owners to seek veterinary support in a timely manner.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

  1. Letter from the CEO Newmetrica.

  2. Details of online licences for non-commercial use of both their dog and cat acute pain tools are available (recording user location, practice and intended use)

  3. Details of commercial licenses available on request, which will include information on licenses and outcomes of trials where tools have been used.

  4. Italian version of Dog Acute Tool has been developed and published (The Italian Society of Veterinary Regional Anaesthesia and Pain Medicine, ISVRA) doi:10.12834/VetIt.699.3421.3.

  5. a) WSAVA endorsement letter;

b) WSAVA Guidelines for Recognition, Assessment and Treatment of Pain (published on WSAVA website, and in Journal of Small Animal Practice, in May 2014). doi:10.1111/jsap.12200;

c) List of Countries endorsing WSAVA guidelines by Global Pain Council;

d) Guidelines of the American Animal Hospitals Association Pain Management Guidelines for Dogs and Cats (2015); e) Download metrics of the WSAVA pain guideline since its publication in May 2014 https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/172/5/114.3.altmetrics

  1. a) Animal Welfare Lifetime achievement − CEVA 2019;

b) Simon Award (acute pain scales) − BSAVA 2016

  1. Download metrics of the online alert tool

  2. Capacity-building through industrial partners

a) Boehringer usage of tools: i) CPD training metrics; ii) App of Glasgow CMPS-Feline tool; iii) Promotional material for Glasgow CMPS-Feline tool Boehringer Ingelheim;

b) Zoetis Osteoarthritis Tool: i) PetDialogue app for HRQL; ii) Zoetis Dog osteoarthritis tool checklist; (iii) Press release on NAVTA course using Zoetis Tools.

  1. Sample of articles aimed at veterinary practitioners to promote uptake or acute tools: including testimony from veterinary practitioners

  2. Corletto, F. (2017) Using acute pain scales for cats. Veterinary Record 180, 444−446. Editorial by Federico Corletto (Head of Anaesthesia and Analgesia, Dick White Referrals, London; President, European College of Veterinary Anaesthesia and Analgesia) http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/vr.j2065

  3. Reid, J., M. Scott, and A. Nolan, Pain assessment in companion animals: an update. In Practice, 2017. 39(10): p. 446−451. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/inp.j4513

  4. Course notes from Advanced Nursing and Critical Care (pdf available from HEI)

  5. Testimony from Greenside Veterinary Practice.

  6. FDA testimonial

  7. Clinical trials and regulatory approval

  8. Testimony from Royal Canine to assess health related quality of life in dogs on a weight loss program with a Royal Canin diet

  9. Elanco Animal Health: i) tablet-form robenacoxib (Elanco study doi:10.1186/s12917-017-1100-x; FDA approval summary (NADA141−463), May 2016, see Section B – Substantial evidence, p.6); ii) injectable robenacoxib (Elanco study doi:10.1111/jvim.14698; FDA approval summary (NADA 141−443), November 2016, see Section B – Substantial evidence, p.7); iii) EMA assessment report.

  10. Aratana Therapeutics: i) Aratana study doi: 10.1186/s12917-016-0798-1; published, Aug 2016—a subsequent unpublished pivotal trial, also using CMSP-SF, is described in the FDA approval; ii) FDA approval summary (NADA141-461), Aug 2016, see Section A, p.4 and Section B, p. 6; iii) MSPCA comment on Aratana’s NOCITA.; iv) Practice User Testimony

  11. Press release from Kindred Biosciences

Showing impact case studies 1 to 5 of 5

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