Impact case study database

A key challenge for this research is to ensure that publics and policy-makers understand the current and future role of wildfire and how we manage fire occurrence and intensity. The underpinning research been achieved through strong and long-lasting collaborations of over twenty years with other academics, learned societies and policy-making communities. Building these relationships, particularly with the International Pyrogeography Research Group (led by the University of Tasmania) and Royal Holloway colleagues, encouraged knowledge transfer, policy impact and capacity building. The beneficiaries include academic and professional communities, policy-makers and wider publics.

Informed public policy and services pertaining to wildfires and climate change. There is a shared concern for the role and impact of fire and its relationship with climate change There have been three main pathways to impact: direct citation, acting as an expert adviser and participant in expert fora. The research findings generated by Scott and his co-researchers was directly cited by official reports generated by international governmental, inter-governmental and non-governmental organizations. Scott’s findings, and the data that underpinned the research, was used by policy communities to quantify the impact that wildfire is having on global radiative forcing and climate change. This has been used in the most recent Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (S1) and the European Union’s Policy Document: Science for Disaster Risk Management 2017 (S2). The research was also used in parliamentary and congressional debates about wildfires. For example, the US House Bill 1526, the Restoring Healthy Forests for Healthy Communities Act (2013 to 2014) that advised on the policy implementation to show the diversity of fuel and vegetation types susceptible to fire. Alongside the public citation of research findings, Scott has also acted an expert adviser for parliamentary and policy-relevant communities. In 2019, a Parliamentary Office Science and Technology (POST) briefing paper ‘Climate change and UK wildfire’ that cited 7 of Scott’s research outputs (S3). Royal Holloway’s research informed provided the paper and POST’s key recommendations were published on the bases of the research (R4) were used in the summary of the findings. The United Kingdom Government’s Review of Wildfire Policy (2019) included evidence from Scott as has the 2020 3^rd UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (S5).

Scott acted an expert for relevant professional stakeholders. For example, Scott is a member of the England and Wales Wildfire forum that provides policy advice for the UK government (S4). Paul Hedley, the Chief Fire Officer of Northumberland Fire and Rescue Service (NFRS) and the National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) lead for wildfires within the UK writes (S4): “I have successfully proposed Professor Scott membership to the Chair and the Secretariat of the EWWF and given his international standing, his research, knowledge, and networks I believe he has a vital role to play in the EWWF's on-going evidence based development of wildfire policy across a diverse range of sectors”. A key element of this drive to influence and policy is to engage with politicians (such as Jeremy Hunt MP, former Foreign Secretary) and to make them aware of the complex issues both through discussion and papers (S5). Jeremy Hunt MP writes: “I am aware that the excellent contribution he makes as a member of the England and Wales Wildfire forum, which provides policy advice for the UK government on all aspects of wildfire, including most recently, plant flammability and behaviour, is very well respected in Westminster” (S5). “Professor Scott's substantive work on this issue has had a considerable impact on national and international policy and perceptions for policy makers and practitioners and has influenced the conclusions of policy reports by international governmental, and inter-governmental organisations, demonstrating the substantial effect fire can have on climate change. This understanding has undoubtedly raised the issue of wildfire significantly higher on the political agenda”.

Changes to training, education policy and professional development. Scott’s research has changed the professional training offered to UK Fire Services. One of the insights offered to the fire-fighting services was the changing nature and severity of fire. Fire services recognised that they needed to better understand plant flammability and diverse fire behaviour. Paul Hedley of the England and Wales Fire and Rescue Service wrote: “ The outcomes of work undertaken by Professor Scott continues to shape the way we adapt and change to the challenges presented by the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in the UK to not only save our countryside and urban areas but also to potentially reduce injuries and save lives”. (S4) Scott continues to provide expert advice to the England and Wales Fire Service on flammable vegetation in particular. Scott’s research findings are also being used in the training offered by the Forestry Service, who themselves offer training to the England and Wales Fire Service (S6). Rob Gazzard, a Senior advisor for Forestry Commission Contingency Planning, Technical Guidance and Wildfire, noted “ His own (Scott’s) contributions to the UK Wildfire Research Group for which I am the coordinator, through his talks and published research has proved important in shaping current policies on wildfire across a number of sectors. His published research on wildfire in Earth history has changed perceptions of wildfire and has had a direct impact in a range of areas of wildfire science and policy. In my role of training land managers and fire fighters to increase wildfire prevention I now use his material based upon his research in my courses. His research has led me to change the way I explain wildfire to a range of stakeholders in our training courses and policy documents. Without your research our perception of the role of wildfire in the Earth System would be very different and the insights your research has provided is proving important in considering future fire policy in relation to climate change” (S7). In 2020, Scott became part of a community initiative in Surrey with the Fire and Rescue Service, Police and NGOs to provide guidance and advice on wildfire threats to the public (S5).

Enriched public understanding and media on wildfire and its impact on global ecosystems. Scott and his research team are committed to sharing the benefits of research as far as possible. Between 2014 and 2020, Scott was invited to contribute to a diverse range of media publications and outlets. These included blogs/news (e.g. Huffington Post), online magazines (e.g. Zócalo Public Square), specialist magazines (e.g. International Fire Fighter), popular scholarship (e.g. Fire: A Very Short Introduction published by Oxford University Press), and national and international media (e.g. BBC World Service). He is in demand as an expert commentator on the continued impact of wildfire and the dilemmas faced by communities and local authorities as they seek to adjust and manage fires that do not necessarily ‘die down’ in winter months and/or cooler temperatures. Scott has been interviewed by journalists based in North America, Australia, continental Europe and the UK, including appearances on television and radio programmes. For example, Scott appeared in a 60-minute programme on wildfire recorded for ‘Science for the People’ (2018) was broadcast through 30 radio stations and the podcast downloaded 15,000 times (S8). And a BBC radio programme recorded on fire and climate change (2016) on the World Service had a global reach of 270,000,000 and was also repeated on BBC Radio 4 (S9). Journalists have also acknowledged that Scott’s research and participation in various radio and television programmes has greatly improved their understanding of fire science and the role of fire over millennia. Scott’s work with public media also led to his research being featured on the knowledge platform for disaster risk reduction run by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and in Kew Gardens’ State of the World’s Plants (2017).

Scott’s public-facing scholarship has been widely praised for its accessibility and clarity of thought. The Times noted, “ We need to think about fire and recognize the evolution of our firery world. His book, the product of a lifetime’s obsession is the place to start thinking” and in the New Scientist “ What we need, says Scott, is a transformation in our attitude to this essential cog in the Earth’s working. Consider the alarm raised”. Scott’s research has also changed perceptions of wildfire leading to the incorporation of his research in new plans for exhibitions, finalised in 2020 at the Museum of Science and Natural History in Japan (for 2022) (S10), as well as cultural exhibitions in the USA. Anna Kaye, Colorado artist and exhibition organizer, for example writes “ I have read the pioneering research in several publications of Professor Andrew C. Scott. *Burning Planet: The Story of Fire Through Time has changed my views, inspired and enhanced my work as an artist, as well as my efforts to create a large-scale environmental exhibition.*” (S10) He has also won praise for his public communication and ability to communicate complex ideas in an accessible and informed manner. As Paul Hedley wrote : “I have been in contact with Professor Scott following the 3rd national Wildfire Research Group meeting held in London in February 2019 after first seeing him present at the November 2017 UK Wildfire Conference "Wildfire Resilience in a UK Context" in Bournemouth (S4) . The presentation focused upon the potential impact of a devastating wildfire in Surrey, and looked at factors such as climate change, fire management, non-native fuel, effects on infrastructure and the analysis of wildfire threat and risk. In the paper the reality of this scenario based on fire research both on modern and ancient fire systems and on forward modelling was considered.  Many of the challenges faced by UK fire and Rescue Services were outlined within Professor Scott’s presentation” (S4).

A key challenge for this research is to ensure that policymakers and publics understand the current and future role of methane in climate change modelling and strategies of mitigation. The underpinning research been achieved through strong and long-lasting collaborations of over twenty years with other academics, funding bodies, and policy-making communities. Building on relationships, Royal Holloway’s Greenhouse Gas Group encouraged knowledge transfer, policy impact and capacity building. The beneficiaries include academic and professional communities, policymakers and wider publics. Fundamentally, the need to understand the reasons for the continued growth in atmospheric methane and identify opportunities for mitigation are vital for achieving net-zero carbon ambitions.

There are three strands of impact: informing policymakers, thought leadership, and enriching public understanding.

Informing policymakers on UK and global greenhouse gas growth and sources

The Greenhouse Gas Group informs and influenced global, regional and national policy-making communities. First, the group contributes to reports that inform the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization on greenhouse gas measurements and methodologies. Their scientific papers provide key information tracking the progress of the 2015 UN Paris Agreement. In the draft 6^th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, R2) is cited as a key report on the current state of methane. More widely, Royal Holloway’s evidence on the global state of atmospheric methane is used by key multi-national institutions, including the United Nations, the World Meteorological Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Arctic Council, to inform governments and businesses.

Second, the group’s regional work on Arctic-based measurements informed policy community discussion about the potential impact of warming on Arctic methane release through destabilization of hydrate or warming permafrost and wetland (through multiple NERC projects since 2007). This research led to significant contributions by Royal Holloway researchers to the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Report (AMAP, 2015 and S4), which helped lead the Arctic Council to ‘commit to enhance actions to reduce black carbon and methane emissions at the national level … through the development of national actions or action plans or mitigation’ and creation of an Arctic Council Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane. Arctic Council member states plan a minimum of 10 % reductions in methane by 2030.

Nationally, the group carried out mobile greenhouse gas measurement to inform the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) of local methane emissions, using isotopes to distinguish between gas and agricultural emissions, and have published recommendations for environmental baseline monitoring. In 2012-3, Royal Holloway’s isotopic measurements from aircraft surveys identified the source of the Elgin gas field leak and in 2018 and 2019 Royal Holloway led UN CCAC funded work to identify North Sea gas leakage, improving governmental understanding of methane sources and helping industry mitigate against gas leakage. The group developed mobile measurement techniques and has mapped fugitive methane emissions in street-by-street surveys across London, Birmingham and Bucharest for EU MEMO² and UN CCAC studies. The UN CCAC studies are carried out in co-operation with the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (currently 62 partners) to inform industry of where oil and gas emissions can be reduced.

This collective work has been recognized as highly significant and cited as such by influential stakeholders. [text removed for publication], US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), states [text removed for publication] ( S1). [text removed for publication] remarked that, “The work has been widely influential on policy makers … jurisdictions now have major programs and policy initiatives that stem directly from the careful monitoring carried out by NOAA and its key partners like Royal Holloway. Global and National Policy Agreements on methane are informed by this work… These initiatives are driven by the knowledge that comes in significant part from the work jointly carried out by NOAA and Royal Holloway”. [text removed for publication] Atmospheric Environment Research at the World Meteorological Organization states [text removed for publication] ( S2).

Royal Holloway is a key member of the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), the UN’s long-term global programme providing the technical basis for the assessment of atmospheric chemical composition. Participation in such expert fora enabled as [text removed for publication] states, [text removed for publication] ( S2). [text removed for publication] again noted [text removed for publication].

Thought Leadership in the Greenhouse Gas community. The Greenhouse Gas Group’s academic reputation for innovation and outstanding science has enabled impact through expert participation and leadership. In terms of reputation for innovation, the use of drone measurement of methane above Ascension Island won The Engineer’s prestigious ‘ Collaborate to Innovate’ award ( S7). Since 2013, the group pioneered mobile measurement techniques and this work was presented at the biennial UN WMO/IAEA Greenhouse Gas and Measurement Techniques panel meetings. This panel was originally set up as the UN WMO/IAEA expert panel by C.D. Keeling and co-ordinates global greenhouse gas measurement. This innovative approach to methane measurement research led to role in EU consortia including Meth-MonitEUr, Geomon IP, which contributed to the 6^th Environmental Action Programme of the EU, and currently MEMO². Professor Nisbet was asked to advise the International Methane Science Study within the United Nations Climate and Clean Air Consortium ( S6; 2018 to 2020), where Nisbet shapes operational decisions. In a Nature news report of a RHUL led tropical methane emissions study in MOYA (2019), Jeff Tollefson said “ the key to solving the methane mystery might be in the air samples that Nisbet’s team gathered” ( S5). Nisbet is an expert reviewer for the IPCC 6^th Assessment Report and recently received American Geophysical Union Outstanding Reviewer Award 2016 and European Geoscience Union Bio-geosciences Outstanding Reviewer Awarded in 2020.

Enriched public understanding and media on methane. Nisbet and his research team are committed to sharing the benefits of research as far as possible. Between 2014 and 2020, the work of the Greenhouse Gas Group was cited and quoted in multiple media outlets and scientific publications. The Economist (2018) and The Financial Times (2019) devoted lengthy articles to the Greenhouse gas group’s findings, with long-read reports in other news outlets including the Los Angeles Times (2019), Bloomberg Markets (2020), NZZ Zurich (2019), Daily Mail (2016), South China Morning Post (2016). BBC Radio 4 (Inside Science, 2019) and the BBC’s World Service (Discovery: Cheating the atmosphere, 2017) broadcast programmes on the work. Royal Holloway will lead the Royal Society’s Discussion Meeting: Rising methane: is the warming feeding the warming? now scheduled for Autumn 2021 (S9). Royal Holloway researchers have also responded positively to requests for help from journalists writing about the impact of methane on world climate and environments. Examples of this collaborative approach included Yale Environment 360’s blog essay ‘What is Causing the Recent Rise in Methane Emissions?’ by Fred Pearce (25^th October 2016) and a Reuters’s news agency ‘Global methane emissions rising due to oil and gas, agriculture – studies’ (14^th July 2020), Professor Nisbet continues to be in demand as an expert commentator on the role of methane emissions on global climate. Nisbet has been interviewed by journalists in Europe, North America, Africa and Asia, and featured on NASA’s Earth Observatory (2016) and Radio Echo Shock (2019). [text removed for publication] of NOAA acknowledged that the [text removed for publication] ( S1).

Industry, policy-making communities and legal experts depend on a clear understanding of deep-water environments. Currently, there is over 1.500.000km of underwater cabling (vital for the global internet) lying on the world’s seabed and identifying safe-zone locations is a matter of global security. Deep-water environments, including contourites, are highly dynamic and subject to rapid change in erosional and depositional rates. Professor Hernández-Molina’s long-standing relationships with stakeholders in the energy and telecommunications sectors around the world have enabled industrial and policy-relevant impact.

Changing Working Practices in the Energy Industry. Oil and gas companies, and the countries that fund, licence and support such activities, are interested and invested in deep-water prospecting, evaluation and development ( E1). The findings of The Drifters group informed the resource development planning of companies, including Petrobras (Brazil), ENI (Italy), BG/Shell group (Netherlands), Total (France), BP (UK), ExxonMobil (USA), Wintershall Dea (Germany), Spectrum/TGS (UK) and Searcher (UK). Working with technical teams attached to these companies, Professor Hernández-Molina and his team shared their expert knowledge about contourites, and the identification of sandy deposits (reservoir rocks) and organic matter rich sediment (source rocks) within those deposits. Francois Raisson (TOTAL) acknowledge that this work have “important implications for exploration and appraisal undertakings in a number of sedimentary basins” ( E4, E2).

As a consequence of research led by Hernández-Molina, Total and ExxonMobil changed their exploration approaches to deep-sea sediments by redesigning their appraisal process. [text removed for publication] of ENI E 7) and Adriano Viana (researcher from PETROBRAS E1) state that the research has helped with their exploration along the Brazilian margin, the Santos Basin. Further collaborative work with ENI identified ‘the Mamba Complex’, an estimated 85,000,000,000,000, feet reservoir of natural gas located in offshore Mozambique. Neil Hodgson (Director, Searcher Geodata Ltd) states that

“Professor F. Javier Hernandez-Molina and his research team “The Drifters” Research Group have been working in collaboration with staff at Searcher on contourite deposits for a number of years. Guided and influenced by our interaction with Professor Hernandez-Molina and his team, we have re-evaluated, and reconsidered every deepwater seismic line that we have interpreted over the last 3 years” ( E6) .

[text removed for publication] from Wintersahll Dea) recognises that the revaluation of some reservoirs in different marine basins are possible because the collaboration with The Drifters group research group ( E3). The research on contourite sands reveals evidences their potential as prolific hydrocarbon reservoirs and contributed to the detection of contourites along the South African, Uruguayan, and Brazilian margins. Since their identification, an oil field with oil reserves of up to 2,700,000,000,000 bbl was discovered in the Brazilian Margin; and the discovery of a gas field offshore in Mozambique both in 2014 ( E5, E6).

Improving Risk Management and the Resilience of Underwater Cabling. Hernández-Molina and The Drifters research team worked with representatives of the telecommunications industry. Operating in deep-water environments, prone of underwater hazards such as landslides and deep-water storms, is an expensive proposition. The laying and maintenance of underwater cabling is crucial to the functioning of the world’s internet. Following expert guidance from Professor Hernández-Molina’s team, telecommunications companies changed how and where they laid underwater cabling. [text removed for publication] from Alcatel Submarine Network, USA) states [text removed for publication] ( E8).

The cost implications are very high since the repair of an underwater cable costs millions of pounds because of the difficulty reaching remote locations and accessing underwater cabling systems. The company acknowledged the work of the group in terms of cost mitigation, an example of this includes the [text removed for publication]. (E8)

Technical Advice to Expert Groups and Policy Makers. The research of The Drifters group informed the implementation of the formal legal and geophysical criteria used to determine the limits of the continental shelf. Hernández-Molina’s expertise was sought by the body charged with interpreting the formal criteria, namely the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). The criteria governing the outer continental shelf are highly technical, and the underpinning research of The Drifters research group has been adopted by the CLCS ( E9). Marcelo Parterlini (Argentina), a member of the CLCS, noted that

*“the important research that you and your team are making in relation to contourite deposit systems… its research work is especially important in connection with the delineation of the outer limits of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical-miles in the context of the application of article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea-UNCLOS… In addition, this research that you and your team carry out in a continuous way over time, allow both the geo-marine scientific community and also the States to have access to up-to-date knowledge on these topics. This certainly has a great impact on the application of article 76 and also on the economic-such us new energy sources-, social and environmental protection policies on the extended continental shelf” ( E9).*

Hernandez-Molina was asked to provide technical advice over a period of six years, between 2012 and 2018, as the CLCS received and evaluated submissions from coastal states around the world. Research at Royal Holloway was used by the CLCS to consider new types of margins affected by bottom currents for evaluating the proposal of the coastal states. Coastal states seek ‘recommendations’ from the CLCS because that then forms the basis for establishing their sovereign rights to resources that lie on and beneath the seabed.