Skip to main

Impact case study database

The impact case study database allows you to browse and search for impact case studies submitted to the REF 2021. Use the search and filters below to find the impact case studies you are looking for.

Search and filter

Filter by

  • Royal Holloway and Bedford New College
   None selected
  • 7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
   None selected
   None selected
   None selected
   None selected
   None selected
   None selected
Waiting for server
Download currently selected sections for currently selected case studies (spreadsheet) (generating)
Download currently selected case study PDFs (zip) (generating)
Download tags for the currently selected case studies (spreadsheet) (generating)
Currently displaying text from case study section
Showing impact case studies 1 to 3 of 3
Submitting institution
Royal Holloway and Bedford New College
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Wildfires have accelerated due to climate change at national and international levels, placing people, wildlife habitats and environments at great risk. In 2019, the United Kingdom had the 3rd largest area affected by wildfires in Europe. Led by Professor Andew Scott, Royal Holloway’s research on wildfires over time has responded to the challenges posed by fire by investigating how scientific knowledge can build greater engagement with policy-relevant communities and wider publics. This research changed understanding of the environmental and social-economic effects of wildfire. It has informed national and international policy and been used by practitioners in three main areas: (1) Influencing fire-relevant policies in the European Union, United Nations and national and local authorities in the UK concerning the management of current and future wildfires; (2) in national policy concerning wildfire suppression and in the professional training fire-fighters; (3) Informed understanding of wildfires by politicians, the public, journalists and the wider media.

2. Underpinning research

Fire has been part of Earth’s history for over 400,000,000 years. Charcoal fragments embedded in rocks provide vital clues that reveal the story of fire over time and space. Despite the growing recognition of the importance of wildfire and deliberate fires in shaping ecosystems and landscapes, there is an urgent need to better understand how the evolution and biology of ecosystems responds to fire. Communities need to recognise better which species are fire-resistant, fire-sensitive and capable of being managed by those affected communities. As climate change fuels more extreme wildfire events, there is an added urgency to ensuring that policy-makers and publics understand that fire management is going to require ever great attention and sensitivity to rapid ecological change. The growing prevalence of invasive species and extreme weather, for instance, will challenge existing responses to and strategies for wildfire management.

Led by Professor Andew Scott at Royal Holloway, research collaboration with colleagues in Earth Sciences (Professors Chaloner and Collinson) and members of the International Pyrogeography Research Group (led by the University of Tasmania), focussed on improving knowledge of pre-Quaternary fire systems (R1). By examining charcoal embedded in rocks around the world, the group highlighted the role of fire in deep time and began to reconstruct the role of wildfire in the evolution of humanity. The research addresses how fire knowledge is integral to understanding better the current and future nature and role of fire in global ecosystems. Research needs to focus further on ensuring that robust scientific knowledge contributes to ways of knowing and understanding that include and engage governments and wider publics in fire governance.

There two strands of research. The first investigates how charcoal preserves the anatomy of the plants being burned. It was shown that there were significant periods of increased fire occurrence over deep time that relate to high oxygen concentrations in the atmosphere. This had a significant impact on how plants evolved to live in such fiery landscapes (R6) and developed traits to cope with fire in the modern world. We used the past record of fire before human influence on fire as a baseline from which to assess the influence of human activity on local and global fire systems, as well as assessing the impact of climate change on wildfire (R2 and R3). Our studies of periods of rapid climate change such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, 55,000,000 years ago, and at the beginning and end of the Younger Dryas, 12.5ky ago, demonstrated how fire systems coped with climate perturbations.

The second, related, area of research considers how fire knowledge can inform public understanding and contribute to policy recommendations. The research collaboration and integration led to recommendations for change in policies for land managers, fire services and politicians in framing legislation on wildfire and climate change (R4). The research was also published in more accessible formats designed to showcase the sources and techniques used to understand and analyse fire within the Earth System as a whole (R5, R6).

3. References to the research

The following articles are all published in highly regarded journals and with established academic publishers, all have been peer reviewed, and supported by grant funding from the Leverhulme Trust and NERC.

(R1). Scott, A.C. 2000. The Pre-Quaternary History of Fire. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 164, 281-329 (DOI: 10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00192-9).

594 citations on Google Scholar.

(R2). Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson,J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D'Antonio, C.M., DeFries, R.S., Doyle, J.C., Harrison,S..P., Johnston, F.H., Keeley, J.E., Krawchuk, M.A., Kull, C.A., Marston, J.B., Moritz, M.A., Prentice, I.C., Roos. C.I., Scott, A.C., Swetnam, T.W., van der Werf, G. R., Pyne, S.J. 2009. Fire in the Earth System. Science 324, 481-484.

2140 citations on Google Scholar, also in the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric (score 158). (DOI: 10.1126/science.1163886)

(R3). Bowman, D.J.M.S., Balch, J., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Cochrane, M.A., D'Antonio, C.M., DeFries, R., Johnston, F.H., Keeley, J.E., Krawchuk, M.A., Kull, C.A., Mack, M., Moritz, M.A., Pyne, S.J., Roos, C.I., Scott, A.C., Sodhi, N.S. and Swetnam, T.W., 2011. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth. Journal of Biogeography 38, 2223-2236 (DOI: 10.111/j.1365-2699.2011.02595x).

The paper has 691 citations in Google Scholar.

(R4). Scott, A.C., Chaloner, W.G., Belcher, C.M., Roos, C.I. 2016. The interaction of fire and mankind: Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. volume 371, Issue 1696 252pp. (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0162).

Scott’s key contribution. e.g. Supplementary online material: Policy challenges and research agenda for the UK. At https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/suppl/10.1098/rstb.2015.0469

(R5). Scott, A.C., Bowman, D.J.M.S., Bond, W.J., Pyne, S.J. and Alexander M. 2014. Fire on Earth: An Introduction. J. Wiley and Sons. 413pp. Available from HEI on Request.

Over 220 citations in Google Scholar.

(R6). Scott, A.C. 2018. Burning Planet. The story of fire through time. Oxford University Press. 224 pp. ISBN 978-0-19-873484-0. Available from HEI on Request.

4. Details of the impact

A key challenge for this research is to ensure that publics and policy-makers understand the current and future role of wildfire and how we manage fire occurrence and intensity. The underpinning research been achieved through strong and long-lasting collaborations of over twenty years with other academics, learned societies and policy-making communities. Building these relationships, particularly with the International Pyrogeography Research Group (led by the University of Tasmania) and Royal Holloway colleagues, encouraged knowledge transfer, policy impact and capacity building. The beneficiaries include academic and professional communities, policy-makers and wider publics.

Informed public policy and services pertaining to wildfires and climate change. There is a shared concern for the role and impact of fire and its relationship with climate change There have been three main pathways to impact: direct citation, acting as an expert adviser and participant in expert fora. The research findings generated by Scott and his co-researchers was directly cited by official reports generated by international governmental, inter-governmental and non-governmental organizations. Scott’s findings, and the data that underpinned the research, was used by policy communities to quantify the impact that wildfire is having on global radiative forcing and climate change. This has been used in the most recent Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (S1) and the European Union’s Policy Document: Science for Disaster Risk Management 2017 (S2). The research was also used in parliamentary and congressional debates about wildfires. For example, the US House Bill 1526, the Restoring Healthy Forests for Healthy Communities Act (2013 to 2014) that advised on the policy implementation to show the diversity of fuel and vegetation types susceptible to fire. Alongside the public citation of research findings, Scott has also acted an expert adviser for parliamentary and policy-relevant communities. In 2019, a Parliamentary Office Science and Technology (POST) briefing paper ‘Climate change and UK wildfire’ that cited 7 of Scott’s research outputs (S3). Royal Holloway’s research informed provided the paper and POST’s key recommendations were published on the bases of the research (R4) were used in the summary of the findings. The United Kingdom Government’s Review of Wildfire Policy (2019) included evidence from Scott as has the 2020 3rd UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (S5).

Scott acted an expert for relevant professional stakeholders. For example, Scott is a member of the England and Wales Wildfire forum that provides policy advice for the UK government (S4). Paul Hedley, the Chief Fire Officer of Northumberland Fire and Rescue Service (NFRS) and the National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) lead for wildfires within the UK writes (S4): “I have successfully proposed Professor Scott membership to the Chair and the Secretariat of the EWWF and given his international standing, his research, knowledge, and networks I believe he has a vital role to play in the EWWF's on-going evidence based development of wildfire policy across a diverse range of sectors”. A key element of this drive to influence and policy is to engage with politicians (such as Jeremy Hunt MP, former Foreign Secretary) and to make them aware of the complex issues both through discussion and papers (S5). Jeremy Hunt MP writes: “I am aware that the excellent contribution he makes as a member of the England and Wales Wildfire forum, which provides policy advice for the UK government on all aspects of wildfire, including most recently, plant flammability and behaviour, is very well respected in Westminster” (S5). “Professor Scott's substantive work on this issue has had a considerable impact on national and international policy and perceptions for policy makers and practitioners and has influenced the conclusions of policy reports by international governmental, and inter-governmental organisations, demonstrating the substantial effect fire can have on climate change. This understanding has undoubtedly raised the issue of wildfire significantly higher on the political agenda”.

Changes to training, education policy and professional development. Scott’s research has changed the professional training offered to UK Fire Services. One of the insights offered to the fire-fighting services was the changing nature and severity of fire. Fire services recognised that they needed to better understand plant flammability and diverse fire behaviour. Paul Hedley of the England and Wales Fire and Rescue Service wrote: “ The outcomes of work undertaken by Professor Scott continues to shape the way we adapt and change to the challenges presented by the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in the UK to not only save our countryside and urban areas but also to potentially reduce injuries and save lives”. (S4) Scott continues to provide expert advice to the England and Wales Fire Service on flammable vegetation in particular. Scott’s research findings are also being used in the training offered by the Forestry Service, who themselves offer training to the England and Wales Fire Service (S6). Rob Gazzard, a Senior advisor for Forestry Commission Contingency Planning, Technical Guidance and Wildfire, noted “ His own (Scott’s) contributions to the UK Wildfire Research Group for which I am the coordinator, through his talks and published research has proved important in shaping current policies on wildfire across a number of sectors. His published research on wildfire in Earth history has changed perceptions of wildfire and has had a direct impact in a range of areas of wildfire science and policy. In my role of training land managers and fire fighters to increase wildfire prevention I now use his material based upon his research in my courses. His research has led me to change the way I explain wildfire to a range of stakeholders in our training courses and policy documents. Without your research our perception of the role of wildfire in the Earth System would be very different and the insights your research has provided is proving important in considering future fire policy in relation to climate change” (S7). In 2020, Scott became part of a community initiative in Surrey with the Fire and Rescue Service, Police and NGOs to provide guidance and advice on wildfire threats to the public (S5).

Enriched public understanding and media on wildfire and its impact on global ecosystems. Scott and his research team are committed to sharing the benefits of research as far as possible. Between 2014 and 2020, Scott was invited to contribute to a diverse range of media publications and outlets. These included blogs/news (e.g. Huffington Post), online magazines (e.g. Zócalo Public Square), specialist magazines (e.g. International Fire Fighter), popular scholarship (e.g. Fire: A Very Short Introduction published by Oxford University Press), and national and international media (e.g. BBC World Service). He is in demand as an expert commentator on the continued impact of wildfire and the dilemmas faced by communities and local authorities as they seek to adjust and manage fires that do not necessarily ‘die down’ in winter months and/or cooler temperatures. Scott has been interviewed by journalists based in North America, Australia, continental Europe and the UK, including appearances on television and radio programmes. For example, Scott appeared in a 60-minute programme on wildfire recorded for ‘Science for the People’ (2018) was broadcast through 30 radio stations and the podcast downloaded 15,000 times (S8). And a BBC radio programme recorded on fire and climate change (2016) on the World Service had a global reach of 270,000,000 and was also repeated on BBC Radio 4 (S9). Journalists have also acknowledged that Scott’s research and participation in various radio and television programmes has greatly improved their understanding of fire science and the role of fire over millennia. Scott’s work with public media also led to his research being featured on the knowledge platform for disaster risk reduction run by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and in Kew Gardens’ State of the World’s Plants (2017).

Scott’s public-facing scholarship has been widely praised for its accessibility and clarity of thought. The Times noted, “ We need to think about fire and recognize the evolution of our firery world. His book, the product of a lifetime’s obsession is the place to start thinking” and in the New ScientistWhat we need, says Scott, is a transformation in our attitude to this essential cog in the Earth’s working. Consider the alarm raised”. Scott’s research has also changed perceptions of wildfire leading to the incorporation of his research in new plans for exhibitions, finalised in 2020 at the Museum of Science and Natural History in Japan (for 2022) (S10), as well as cultural exhibitions in the USA. Anna Kaye, Colorado artist and exhibition organizer, for example writes “ I have read the pioneering research in several publications of Professor Andrew C. Scott. *Burning Planet: The Story of Fire Through Time has changed my views, inspired and enhanced my work as an artist, as well as my efforts to create a large-scale environmental exhibition.*” (S10) He has also won praise for his public communication and ability to communicate complex ideas in an accessible and informed manner. As Paul Hedley wrote : “I have been in contact with Professor Scott following the 3rd national Wildfire Research Group meeting held in London in February 2019 after first seeing him present at the November 2017 UK Wildfire Conference "Wildfire Resilience in a UK Context" in Bournemouth (S4) . The presentation focused upon the potential impact of a devastating wildfire in Surrey, and looked at factors such as climate change, fire management, non-native fuel, effects on infrastructure and the analysis of wildfire threat and risk. In the paper the reality of this scenario based on fire research both on modern and ancient fire systems and on forward modelling was considered.  Many of the challenges faced by UK fire and Rescue Services were outlined within Professor Scott’s presentation” (S4).

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[S1]. Paper [R2] Used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change Published 2014. Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group. Chapter 8 Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing.

[S2]. Papers [R2, R3, R4] used in European Union Policy Document: Science for disaster risk management 2017. Pp. 294-335 [2,3,4] https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication\-detail/\-/publication/4bc0e055\-3712\-11e7\-a08e\-01aa75ed71a1/language\-en/format\-PDF

[S3]. Parliamentary Committees: Contributed and refereed Parliamentary Briefing document (POST 603) on “Climate change and wildfire frequency” ( https://www.parliament.uk/postnotes) as part of the parliamentary review of wildfire.

[S4]. Testimonial from Paul Hedley, the Chief Fire Officer of Northumberland Fire and Rescue Service (NFRS) and the National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) lead for wildfires within the UK.

[S5]. Testimonial from Rt Hon Jeremy Hunt MP, (Former Foreign Secretary)

[S6]. UK Wildfire Resilience 2017 Report incorporating Scott’s advice surrounding flammable vegetation https://www.dorsetforyou.gov.uk/countryside-coast-parks/dorset-heaths/pdfs/uk-wildfire-resilience-2017.pdf and PDF article recognising the release of the hand book (available from HEI on request).

[S7]. Testimonial from Rob Gazzard, (Senior advisor for Forestry Commission Contingency Planning, Technical Guidance and Wildfire).

[S8]. Science for the People, California (USA): Wildfires (60 mins) March 23 2018

http://www.scienceforthepeople.ca/episodes/wildfire. Syndicated to 30 radio stations and websites and downloaded 15,000 times.

[S9]. August 2016 BBC World Service: The Forum with Bridget Kendall - Fire: How Climate Change is Altering our Attitudes to Wildfires. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p045g1dp

(Heard in more than 100 countries with a global audience of 270 million). http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08349jl

[S10]. Testimonial from Anna Kaye, Colorado artist and exhibition organizer ( https://www.annakayeart.com/)

Submitting institution
Royal Holloway and Bedford New College
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

The continuing rise of atmospheric methane and its unexpected increased growth rate since 2007 threaten to jeopardise global commitments to limit global warming to less than 2°C. Research by Royal Holloway’s Greenhouse Gas Group has generated a body of evidence relating to methane measurements. The research has transformed understanding of the reasons for methane growth and led to refinement of mitigation targets. Impact has been generated through three main routes: 1) measurements of the current and likely future state of global methane; 2) shaping UK and global policy and helping the energy industry to mitigate against climate change and leakage at gas fields; and 3) shaping public debate through UK and international media. The Greenhouse Gas Group’s research has been pivotal to enhanced understanding of methane’s role in enabling UN Paris Agreement targets to be either reached or breached.

2. Underpinning research

Research by the Greenhouse Gas Group at Royal Holloway addressed three fundamental questions: First, what are the causes of methane growth? Second, which sources have changing emissions and why? Third, what are the opportunities for national and global mitigation? In addressing these questions, the Group used air sampling in the UK and around the world, to reveal that methane is often under-estimated in climate change modelling, where the focus is on carbon dioxide rather than other gases such as methane. Their research has demonstrated that not only that recent industrial activities such as fracking an important trigger of methane release but also that microbial emissions in the tropics from sources such as rice paddies and wetlands are a contributory source. Royal Holloway’s air measurements highlighted ‘plumes of methane’ and warned that climate models would need to better account for this surge in methane because each molecule of methane has a greater warming effect than carbon dioxide. Failure to understand and respond to a spike in methane emissions, especially in natural ecosystems, will undermine the ambitious targets laid out in the UN Paris Agreement ( R1).

Led by Professor Euan Nisbet and Royal Holloway colleagues, Dave Lowry and Rebecca Fisher, the focus of attention was ensuing that the group’s research was underpinned by long-term measurement of methane and its isotopes at remote stations in the Atlantic, Arctic, Bolivia (Amazonia), Cape Town (Southern Ocean) and Hong Kong (tracking China’s outflow). Royal Holloway Greenhouse Gas Group’s first report of methane’s renewed growth was in partnership with US federal agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, R4). RHUL/NOAA-led scientific papers are the key global reports on the State of Methane, providing the primary scientific underpinning for tracking methane’s input to global warming as nations seek to meet the climate goals of the UN Paris Agreement ( R2 to R5). It and showed that methane’s 13C/12C isotopic ratio is trending negative ( R2 and R3), implying a significant global budget shift caused by changing proportions of biogenic and fossil fuel emissions, especially in the tropics, or declining sinks, or both. These findings reset the global methane debate and are key underpinnings to chapters in the IPCC assessment and to regional and global methane modelling and mitigation planning, both on national and global scales. Royal Holloway’s research considered the potential impact of warming on Arctic methane release through destabilization of hydrate ( R6) or warming permafrost and wetland.

A second strand of research addressed the role of methane emissions in urban areas. The Greenhouse Gas Group, using some of the world’s longest peri-urban CH4, CO2, CO and H2 records, led to the innovative development of new technologies for mobile measurement of methane around major sources, such as landfills, gas industry systems, cattle barns, and for determination of methane’s C-isotopic ratios from natural and anthropogenic sources. This is important for developing methodologies for regulators and industry and illustrated how the research at Royal Holloway was very closely tied to national and international collaborative networks ( R1). One example was the work that was undertaken with the UK government and European Union to identify and measure emissions from sources such as landfills, cattle feed lots, landfills and biodigesters.

Royal Holloway’s research helped identify pathways and methane-reduction targets designed to encourage rapid emission reduction. Emission reduction is essential if the UN Paris Agreement and UK national ‘Net Zero’ goals for 2050 are to be met. If the methane rise documented by the Greenhouse Gas Group continues at the current pace in the coming decades, these commitments are likely to fail. Royal Holloway’s research leadership has been recognised recently. In 2020, Royal Holloway researchers led a major invited publication on Methane Mitigation for the prestigious Reviews of Geophysics, published by the American Geophysical Union ( R1). Professor Nisbet is lead editor for a special issue of Philosophical Transactions, a Royal Society volume on Rising Methane (originally set for publication in October 2020), and now rescheduled for publication at the time of the UK-hosted COP26 meeting in Glasgow.

The Greenhouse Gas Group is a leader in investigating ways that methane reduction might be accelerated via UV or catalytic destruction as well as biological oxidation, whereby gas emissions can be directly removed from the ambient atmosphere around intractable sources such as gas fields and land fill sites. As a consequence of this work, Royal Holloway’s researchers continue to advise the United Nations Climate and Clean Air Coalition (UN CCAC) on methane reduction and in the recent past have led UN-sponsored aircraft campaigns in the North Sea for the purpose of reducing gas field emissions of methane.

The Greenhouse Gas Group’s work has been underpinned by multiple grants and until recently was a member of the UK’s NERC highlight consortium, MOYA: The Global Methane Budget (2016-2020 with an operational budget of £5,000,000).

3. References to the research

( R1) Nisbet, E.G. et al. (2020) Methane mitigation: methods to reduce emissions, on the path to the Paris Agreement. Reviews of Geophysics 58.1: e2019RG000675. 4 Scopus citations (31.12.2020)

( R2) Nisbet, E.G. et al (2019) Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014 - 2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement. Global Biogeochem. Cycles. 33, 318-42 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006009 . 81 Scopus citations (31.12.2020)

( R3) Nisbet, E. G., et al. (2016), Rising atmospheric methane: 2007–2014 growth and isotopic shift, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 30, 1356-1370 doi: 10.1002/ 2016GB005406. Web of Science ‘Hot’ paper through 2017 -top 0.1% for citation. 190 Scopus citations (31.12.2020)

( R4) Nisbet, EG, Dlugokencky, EJ, Bousquet, P (2014) Methane on the rise – again Science 343 , 493-5 doi: 10.1126/science.1247828 *. 279 Scopus citations (31.12.2020) *

( R5) Dlugokencky, E.J., Nisbet, E.G., Fisher, R., and Lowry, D. (2011) Global atmospheric methane in 2010: Budget, changes and dangers. Phil. Trans Royal Soc Lond A 369,* 2058–2072 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0341. 376 Scopus citations (31.12.2020)

( R6) Westbrook, G.K. et al. (including Nisbet, E.G and Fisher, R.E.) (2009) Escape of methane gas from the seabed along the West Spitsbergen continental margin. Geophys Res. Lett, 36, L15608 doi: 10.1029/2009GL039191. 341 citations ( 31.12.2020)

Quality Indicators

Names in bold are staff at Royal Holloway University of London. All references are publications in internationally recognised peer-reviewed journals such as Science and Geophysical Research Letters. The work of Royal Holloway’s Greenhouse Gas Group is heavily cited.

  • Between 2013-2020, the Group’s secured repeated competitive funding from multiple sources including NERC, EU, UN Clean Air Coalition and BEIS. This includes GBP 3,000,000 grant funding from NERC between 2013-2020.

  • Royal Holloway leads and initiated the national GBP5,000,000 14-partner NERC Highlight consortium, Project MOYA, The Global Methane Budget, 2016-2020.

4. Details of the impact

A key challenge for this research is to ensure that policymakers and publics understand the current and future role of methane in climate change modelling and strategies of mitigation. The underpinning research been achieved through strong and long-lasting collaborations of over twenty years with other academics, funding bodies, and policy-making communities. Building on relationships, Royal Holloway’s Greenhouse Gas Group encouraged knowledge transfer, policy impact and capacity building. The beneficiaries include academic and professional communities, policymakers and wider publics. Fundamentally, the need to understand the reasons for the continued growth in atmospheric methane and identify opportunities for mitigation are vital for achieving net-zero carbon ambitions.

There are three strands of impact: informing policymakers, thought leadership, and enriching public understanding.

Informing policymakers on UK and global greenhouse gas growth and sources

The Greenhouse Gas Group informs and influenced global, regional and national policy-making communities. First, the group contributes to reports that inform the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization on greenhouse gas measurements and methodologies. Their scientific papers provide key information tracking the progress of the 2015 UN Paris Agreement. In the draft 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, R2) is cited as a key report on the current state of methane. More widely, Royal Holloway’s evidence on the global state of atmospheric methane is used by key multi-national institutions, including the United Nations, the World Meteorological Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Arctic Council, to inform governments and businesses.

Second, the group’s regional work on Arctic-based measurements informed policy community discussion about the potential impact of warming on Arctic methane release through destabilization of hydrate or warming permafrost and wetland (through multiple NERC projects since 2007). This research led to significant contributions by Royal Holloway researchers to the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Report (AMAP, 2015 and S4), which helped lead the Arctic Council to ‘commit to enhance actions to reduce black carbon and methane emissions at the national level … through the development of national actions or action plans or mitigation’ and creation of an Arctic Council Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane. Arctic Council member states plan a minimum of 10 % reductions in methane by 2030.

Nationally, the group carried out mobile greenhouse gas measurement to inform the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) of local methane emissions, using isotopes to distinguish between gas and agricultural emissions, and have published recommendations for environmental baseline monitoring. In 2012-3, Royal Holloway’s isotopic measurements from aircraft surveys identified the source of the Elgin gas field leak and in 2018 and 2019 Royal Holloway led UN CCAC funded work to identify North Sea gas leakage, improving governmental understanding of methane sources and helping industry mitigate against gas leakage. The group developed mobile measurement techniques and has mapped fugitive methane emissions in street-by-street surveys across London, Birmingham and Bucharest for EU MEMO2 and UN CCAC studies. The UN CCAC studies are carried out in co-operation with the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (currently 62 partners) to inform industry of where oil and gas emissions can be reduced.

This collective work has been recognized as highly significant and cited as such by influential stakeholders. [text removed for publication], US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), states [text removed for publication] ( S1). [text removed for publication] remarked that, “The work has been widely influential on policy makers … jurisdictions now have major programs and policy initiatives that stem directly from the careful monitoring carried out by NOAA and its key partners like Royal Holloway. Global and National Policy Agreements on methane are informed by this work… These initiatives are driven by the knowledge that comes in significant part from the work jointly carried out by NOAA and Royal Holloway”. [text removed for publication] Atmospheric Environment Research at the World Meteorological Organization states [text removed for publication] ( S2).

Royal Holloway is a key member of the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), the UN’s long-term global programme providing the technical basis for the assessment of atmospheric chemical composition. Participation in such expert fora enabled as [text removed for publication] states, [text removed for publication] ( S2). [text removed for publication] again noted [text removed for publication].

Thought Leadership in the Greenhouse Gas community. The Greenhouse Gas Group’s academic reputation for innovation and outstanding science has enabled impact through expert participation and leadership. In terms of reputation for innovation, the use of drone measurement of methane above Ascension Island won The Engineer’s prestigious ‘ Collaborate to Innovate’ award ( S7). Since 2013, the group pioneered mobile measurement techniques and this work was presented at the biennial UN WMO/IAEA Greenhouse Gas and Measurement Techniques panel meetings. This panel was originally set up as the UN WMO/IAEA expert panel by C.D. Keeling and co-ordinates global greenhouse gas measurement. This innovative approach to methane measurement research led to role in EU consortia including Meth-MonitEUr, Geomon IP, which contributed to the 6th Environmental Action Programme of the EU, and currently MEMO2. Professor Nisbet was asked to advise the International Methane Science Study within the United Nations Climate and Clean Air Consortium ( S6; 2018 to 2020), where Nisbet shapes operational decisions. In a Nature news report of a RHUL led tropical methane emissions study in MOYA (2019), Jeff Tollefson said “ the key to solving the methane mystery might be in the air samples that Nisbet’s team gathered” ( S5). Nisbet is an expert reviewer for the IPCC 6th Assessment Report and recently received American Geophysical Union Outstanding Reviewer Award 2016 and European Geoscience Union Bio-geosciences Outstanding Reviewer Awarded in 2020.

Enriched public understanding and media on methane. Nisbet and his research team are committed to sharing the benefits of research as far as possible. Between 2014 and 2020, the work of the Greenhouse Gas Group was cited and quoted in multiple media outlets and scientific publications. The Economist (2018) and The Financial Times (2019) devoted lengthy articles to the Greenhouse gas group’s findings, with long-read reports in other news outlets including the Los Angeles Times (2019), Bloomberg Markets (2020), NZZ Zurich (2019), Daily Mail (2016), South China Morning Post (2016). BBC Radio 4 (Inside Science, 2019) and the BBC’s World Service (Discovery: Cheating the atmosphere, 2017) broadcast programmes on the work. Royal Holloway will lead the Royal Society’s Discussion Meeting: Rising methane: is the warming feeding the warming? now scheduled for Autumn 2021 (S9). Royal Holloway researchers have also responded positively to requests for help from journalists writing about the impact of methane on world climate and environments. Examples of this collaborative approach included Yale Environment 360’s blog essay ‘What is Causing the Recent Rise in Methane Emissions?’ by Fred Pearce (25th October 2016) and a Reuters’s news agency ‘Global methane emissions rising due to oil and gas, agriculture – studies’ (14th July 2020), Professor Nisbet continues to be in demand as an expert commentator on the role of methane emissions on global climate. Nisbet has been interviewed by journalists in Europe, North America, Africa and Asia, and featured on NASA’s Earth Observatory (2016) and Radio Echo Shock (2019). [text removed for publication] of NOAA acknowledged that the [text removed for publication] ( S1).

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

( S1) . US NOAA Testimonial, [text removed for publication], US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 16th January 2020.

( S2). UN WMO Testimonial : global methane. Evidence: Letter from [text removed for publication] Atmospheric Environment Research Division, UN World Meteorological Organisation, and coordinator of the Global Atmosphere Watch. 10th January 2020.

( S3). Excerpts from WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 15, 25th November 2019.

( S4). Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Report (AMAP). 2015. Royal Holloway authors are highlighted on page iii in yellow.

( S5). Nature News Article, Jeff Tollefson, Nature. 14th February 2019.

( S6). UN Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) Oil and Gas Science Study Scientific Advisory Committee . Evidence: Contract letter “82346-X-A3-03 UN Environment Kigali Assessment- Methane Science Study”. 25 June 2018.

( S7). The Engineer Collaborate to Innovate Award . 17th November 2016.

( S8). Bundled documentation of Media Reports, 2016-2020.

( S9) Royal Society Discussion Meeting on Rising Methane, led by Nisbet. Now rescheduled for Autumn 2021.

(S10) Altmetric data for Nisbet et al. 2019. Metrics for media reports and policy documents citing the paper.

Submitting institution
Royal Holloway and Bedford New College
Unit of assessment
7 - Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Summary impact type
Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Research led by Professor Hernandez-Molina at Royal Holloway improved understanding of the processes affecting deep marine environments. It showed the influence of bottom-current circulation along continental margins and its relationship to contourite depositional systems. This research was used by energy industries and informed environmental policymakers in two distinct areas. First, energy companies were able to undertake more precise resource evaluation and exploration, and telecommunication companies used the expert mapping to better plan telecommunication cabling. Second, environmental policymakers and international lawyers drew on their research to help define and delimit national sovereign rights and co-ordinate infrastructural planning on the seabed.

2. Underpinning research

Sedimentary deposits produced by thermohaline-induced deep water bottom currents (contourites), are important for three reasons. Contourites are used by marine geologists to generate insights into past ocean circulation with implications for better understanding climate change. Second, energy companies consider sand-rich contourites to be potential reservoir rocks in deep water environments with potential for oil and gas deposits and carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration. Finally, contourites are prone to slope instability carries with it risks to seafloor installations such as pipelines and submarine telecommunication cabling. The research is vital to ensure that deep marine environments are well understood in order to ensure that risk of environmental disaster and expensive damage to critical infrastructure are mitigated.

Research conducted at Royal Holloway pioneered the location and identification of deep-water sedimentary deposit systems and the role of bottom currents on the sedimentation process. Led by Hernandez-Molina and The Drifters group (established in 2016, and composed of 21 researchers, including staff, PhD students alongside a global network of researchers) recognised that research on contourites, despite ongoing for over the last 50 years, was still in need of further refinement because their worldwide important role in marine sedimentation (R1). The spatial and temporal evolution of contourites and the oceanographic processes that make and form them need to be better understood. Contourite processes are proving to be more complex than previously thought with implications for modelling and nomenclature, and enhanced collaboration as pioneered by our group between geologists, benthic biologists and oceanographers is necessary to improve further our understanding of how these extreme environments are shaped by bottom-current dynamics and deposits (R2).

The Drifters group has two strands of research. First it addresses the role and purpose of deep marine sedimentation. The group investigates the modern marine seafloor in a variety of geographical locations, as well as interrogating the long-term geological past. Evidence for ancient ocean dynamics is used to inform studies on the future evolution of oceans. We analysed samples that we collected during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Programme Expedition (IODP) 339 in 2012 to establish that there was an abundance of sand contourites with potential to act as good quality reservoirs in deep marine environments (R3, R4). The group investigated how submarine processes such as internal waves, eddies and deep-sea storms affect deep water assemblages.

Second, the research is strongly aligned to professional stakeholders such as the oil and gas industries and telecommunication sector. Working with companies such as Total, ENI, BP, Wintershall Dea and ExxonMobil, the underpinning research considers explicitly the economic potential of deep-water deposits and the operational challenges they pose to underwater infrastructure. Specifically, the group identified an extensive distribution of contourite sands around the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and posited that they are likely to act as reservoir units and seals for unconventional oil and gas potential. As a joint industrial project (2017-2020), the group’s underpinning research on contourites attracted commercial sponsorship and produced both assessments of energy potential as well as CO2 sequestration (R5, R6).

3. References to the research

The following articles are all published in highly regarded peer-reviewed international journals, which showcase the internationalization of our research. The research was supported by funding from the European Union, Royal Society and an industry-led Joint Industrial Project (2017-2020) and renewed in 2020 for 2021-2024.

(R1) Rebesco, M., Hernández-Molina, F.J., Van Rooij, D., Wåhlin, A., 2014. Contourites and associated sediments controlled by deep-water circulation processes: state of the art and future considerations. Marine Geology, 352: 111-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2014.03.011 . Impact Factor: 3.349 ( Source: Scopus)

(R2) Hernández-Molina, F.J., Llave, E., Ercilla, G.; Maestro, A., Medialdea, T., Ferrin, A., Somoza, L., Gracia, E., Masson, D.G., García, M., Vizcaino, A., León, R., 2008. Recent sedimentary processes in the Galicia Bank (NW Iberian Margin): An integrated study using high-resolution marine geophysical methods. Marine Geology, 249 (1-2): 21-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2007.09.011 Impact Factor: 3.349 ( Source: Scopus)

(R3) Hernández-Molina, F.J., Stow, D.A.V., et al., 2014. Onset of Mediterranean Outflow into the North Atlantic. Science, 344: 1244- 1250. DOI: 10.1126/science.1251306 Impact Factor: 41.063 (2018) ( Source: Science journal)

(R4) Hernández-Molina, F.J., Sierro, F.J., Llave, E., Roque, C., et al. 2016. Evolution of the Gulf of Cadiz margin and southwest Portugal contourite depositional system: Tectonic, sedimentary and paleoceanographic implications from IODP expedition 339, Marine Geology, 377: 7-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2015.09.013. Impact Factor: 3.349 ( Source: Scopus)

(R5) de Castro, S., Hernández-Molina, F.J., Rodríguez-Tovar, F.J., Llave, E., NG, Z.L., Nishida, N., Mena, A, 2020. Contourites and bottom current reworked sands. Marine Geology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2020.106267 . Impact Factor: 3.349 ( Source: Scopus)

(R6) Miramontes, E., Eggenhuisen, J.T., Silva Jacinto, R., Poneti, G., Pohl, F., Normandeau, A., Campbell, D.C., Hernández-Molina, F.J., 2020. Reply. Channel-levee evolution in combined contour current–turbidity current flows from flume-tank experiments. Geology. 48. https://doi.org/10.1130/G47111.1 . Impact Factor: 5.406 #1 in "geology" category for 13 years in a row ( Source: The Geological Society of America)

4. Details of the impact

Industry, policy-making communities and legal experts depend on a clear understanding of deep-water environments. Currently, there is over 1.500.000km of underwater cabling (vital for the global internet) lying on the world’s seabed and identifying safe-zone locations is a matter of global security. Deep-water environments, including contourites, are highly dynamic and subject to rapid change in erosional and depositional rates. Professor Hernández-Molina’s long-standing relationships with stakeholders in the energy and telecommunications sectors around the world have enabled industrial and policy-relevant impact.

Changing Working Practices in the Energy Industry. Oil and gas companies, and the countries that fund, licence and support such activities, are interested and invested in deep-water prospecting, evaluation and development ( E1). The findings of The Drifters group informed the resource development planning of companies, including Petrobras (Brazil), ENI (Italy), BG/Shell group (Netherlands), Total (France), BP (UK), ExxonMobil (USA), Wintershall Dea (Germany), Spectrum/TGS (UK) and Searcher (UK). Working with technical teams attached to these companies, Professor Hernández-Molina and his team shared their expert knowledge about contourites, and the identification of sandy deposits (reservoir rocks) and organic matter rich sediment (source rocks) within those deposits. Francois Raisson (TOTAL) acknowledge that this work have “important implications for exploration and appraisal undertakings in a number of sedimentary basins” ( E4, E2).

As a consequence of research led by Hernández-Molina, Total and ExxonMobil changed their exploration approaches to deep-sea sediments by redesigning their appraisal process. [text removed for publication] of ENI E 7) and Adriano Viana (researcher from PETROBRAS E1) state that the research has helped with their exploration along the Brazilian margin, the Santos Basin. Further collaborative work with ENI identified ‘the Mamba Complex’, an estimated 85,000,000,000,000, feet reservoir of natural gas located in offshore Mozambique. Neil Hodgson (Director, Searcher Geodata Ltd) states that

“Professor F. Javier Hernandez-Molina and his research team “The Drifters” Research Group have been working in collaboration with staff at Searcher on contourite deposits for a number of years. Guided and influenced by our interaction with Professor Hernandez-Molina and his team, we have re-evaluated, and reconsidered every deepwater seismic line that we have interpreted over the last 3 years” ( E6) .

[text removed for publication] from Wintersahll Dea) recognises that the revaluation of some reservoirs in different marine basins are possible because the collaboration with The Drifters group research group ( E3). The research on contourite sands reveals evidences their potential as prolific hydrocarbon reservoirs and contributed to the detection of contourites along the South African, Uruguayan, and Brazilian margins. Since their identification, an oil field with oil reserves of up to 2,700,000,000,000 bbl was discovered in the Brazilian Margin; and the discovery of a gas field offshore in Mozambique both in 2014 ( E5, E6).

Improving Risk Management and the Resilience of Underwater Cabling. Hernández-Molina and The Drifters research team worked with representatives of the telecommunications industry. Operating in deep-water environments, prone of underwater hazards such as landslides and deep-water storms, is an expensive proposition. The laying and maintenance of underwater cabling is crucial to the functioning of the world’s internet. Following expert guidance from Professor Hernández-Molina’s team, telecommunications companies changed how and where they laid underwater cabling. [text removed for publication] from Alcatel Submarine Network, USA) states [text removed for publication] ( E8).

The cost implications are very high since the repair of an underwater cable costs millions of pounds because of the difficulty reaching remote locations and accessing underwater cabling systems. The company acknowledged the work of the group in terms of cost mitigation, an example of this includes the [text removed for publication]. (E8)

Technical Advice to Expert Groups and Policy Makers. The research of The Drifters group informed the implementation of the formal legal and geophysical criteria used to determine the limits of the continental shelf. Hernández-Molina’s expertise was sought by the body charged with interpreting the formal criteria, namely the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). The criteria governing the outer continental shelf are highly technical, and the underpinning research of The Drifters research group has been adopted by the CLCS ( E9). Marcelo Parterlini (Argentina), a member of the CLCS, noted that

*“the important research that you and your team are making in relation to contourite deposit systems… its research work is especially important in connection with the delineation of the outer limits of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical-miles in the context of the application of article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea-UNCLOS… In addition, this research that you and your team carry out in a continuous way over time, allow both the geo-marine scientific community and also the States to have access to up-to-date knowledge on these topics. This certainly has a great impact on the application of article 76 and also on the economic-such us new energy sources-, social and environmental protection policies on the extended continental shelf” ( E9).*

Hernandez-Molina was asked to provide technical advice over a period of six years, between 2012 and 2018, as the CLCS received and evaluated submissions from coastal states around the world. Research at Royal Holloway was used by the CLCS to consider new types of margins affected by bottom currents for evaluating the proposal of the coastal states. Coastal states seek ‘recommendations’ from the CLCS because that then forms the basis for establishing their sovereign rights to resources that lie on and beneath the seabed.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

E1. Testimonial from Dr Adriano Viana researcher from PETROBRAS (Brazil) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

E2. Testimonial from [text removed for publication], Process Stratigraphy, ExxonMobil Upstream Research (USA) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

E3. Testimonial from [text removed for publication] from Wintershall Dea (Germany) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

E4. Testimonial from Dr Francois Raisson researcher from TOTAL, SA (France) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

E5. Testimonial from Dr David J Went, Director of Geoscience AME, TGS (UK) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

E6. Testimonial from Dr Neil Hodgson, VP Geoscience Searcher Director, Searcher Geodata Ltd (UK) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

E7. Testimonial from [text removed for publication] from ENI (Italy) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- Bottom current deposits in marine deep-water setting in industry’, 2018.

E8. Testimonial from [text removed for publication] from Alcatel Submarine Networks UK Ltd ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

E9. Testimonial from Dr. Marcelo Paterlini, Member of the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS)** by UNCLOS (United Nations Law of the Sea Convention) ‘Letter of support for Prof. Javier Hernandez-Molina- contourite deposits in industry’, June 2020.

Showing impact case studies 1 to 3 of 3

Filter by higher education institution

UK regions
Select one or more of the following higher education institutions and then click Apply selected filters when you have finished.
No higher education institutions found.
Institutions

Filter by unit of assessment

Main panels
Select one or more of the following units of assessment and then click Apply selected filters when you have finished.
No unit of assessments found.
Units of assessment

Filter by continued case study

Select one or more of the following states and then click Apply selected filters when you have finished.

Filter by summary impact type

Select one or more of the following summary impact types and then click Apply selected filters when you have finished.

Filter by impact UK location

UK Countries
Select one or more of the following UK locations and then click Apply selected filters when you have finished.
No UK locations found.
Impact UK locations

Filter by impact global location

Continents
Select one or more of the following global locations and then click Apply selected filters when you have finished.
No global locations found.
Impact global locations

Filter by underpinning research subject

Subject areas
Select one or more of the following underpinning research subjects and then click Apply selected filters when you have finished.
No subjects found.
Underpinning research subjects