Results and submissions : REF 2021

Food Ladders: Increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability to food insecurit ...

Submitting institution: The University of Sheffield
Unit of assessment: 14 - Geography and Environmental Studies
Summary impact type: Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

One in five UK adults experience food insecurity. Blake has redefined food support through her innovative framework, Food Ladders. Blake’s work drove organisational and policy change achieving greater reach, access to resources and influence for food charities, including the UK’s largest surplus food redistributor, FareShare. Her framework has led to policy interventions to eliminate vulnerability to hunger, poor nutrition and social isolation through collaborations locally and internationally. Food Ladders has been pivotal to the UK’s planning responses, disaster mitigation, and longer-term strategy for more than 40 UK-wide charities, local and central government, and business during COVID-19.

2. Underpinning research

Blake’s research has established her as a leading expert on the effects of poverty on food security and community wellbeing. Her work shows how to repair those effects by transformative resilience that intersects along multiple points in food systems. To examine the systems that shape food consumption, community food support, commercial food access and surplus food redistribution, her research draws on participatory and ethnographic techniques alongside quantitative analysis. Her key research findings are set out below.

A. Inequality of foodscapes. Blake’s research on food landscapes (foodscapes) reveals how everyday social practices and national and local government policies play an important role in shaping diets. It highlights how food access is discriminatory and based on class and race [R1, R2]. Her methods include qualitative interviews, participatory video, and workshops with charities and those with lived experience of food insecurity. Drawing on intervention research she finds that foodscapes can be rebuilt with cost-effective interventions that enhance markets by increasing demand for healthy foods by providing consumers with resources to afford fruits and vegetables [R6].

B. Food insecurity is a systemic problem with effects that extend beyond nutrition and economics. Blake’s research demonstrates that the effects of poverty extend beyond the ability to afford food, hunger and poor health. Effects include loss of social networks, erosion of community spaces, denigration of local foodscapes and collective de-skilling that limits the community resources needed for self-organising [R3]. Findings that have been magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic with more people describing themselves as squeezed, stressed and struggling.

C. The social value of surplus food. As a recognised global expert on how surplus food can be used to achieve social value Blake’s ethnographic research identified that food-centred activity contributes to reducing loneliness and isolation [R3, R4]. Using a survey methodology, she compiled the first dataset that quantitatively demonstrates the significant part that food support plays in improving diets and access to fruits and vegetables, introducing people to new foods and reducing loneliness and isolation [R3]. Furthermore, that efficient distribution of surplus food to third sector organisations frees up time for them to spend with communities, enables food-based social activity to take place that would not otherwise occur, and extends the reach of the work of community organisations [R4, R6].

D. Food Ladders as a mechanism for enhancing community resilience and self-organising. Following on from C, Blake’s research demonstrates that to address hunger we need interlinked solutions to create longer term change. She identified how different types of and combinations of activity (food banks, pantries, shared meals, holiday clubs, cafes) achieves different levels of resilience— Catching, Capacity Building, and Transforming within three areas of practice— food, social and economic [R3]. While there is coordination in some places, generally food support is offered in isolation. Blake’s Food Ladders framework articulates a roadmap to understand local food systems that can signpost what type and where further interventions are needed. It also offers a way for local government, industry and third sector organisations to collaborate to achieve shared aims and capitalise on available assets and resources [R5].

4. Details of the impact

Impact 1: Creating organisational change leading to enriched foodscapes

Charities

Food systems and the food support sector can lack cohesion and collaboration (Finding D). Blake’s work has been credited with promoting and delivering collaborative working and widespread sectoral change. Food ladders are mentioned in discussions and meetings amongst food sector organisations from large organisations such as Food Ethics Council and Feeding Britain to smaller charities [S1].

Blake’s research (Findings A, C and D) has enabled FareShare (the UK's largest charity fighting hunger and food waste supplying to more than 11k charities) to:

Better understand the role of food support and work more strategically. Dr Blake’s work “provided us with key insights … simply providing food does not necessarily increase social interaction. It depends how the organisations use and engage with the food. This helps us to know who we can engage with to properly tackle the issues of loneliness” [S2].
Redefine their key performance indicators: “FareShare can evaluate and report on its impact as well as allow for data driven decision making across all levels of the organisation [S2]”. FareShare now measures how their support enables people to increase diet diversity and make healthier choices [S2].
Demonstrate their social impact to food industry partners. FareShare has extended its long-term funding from key players in the food sector valued at around £19 million [S2] and Expanded from working with one major retailer, Tesco, to four including Asda and Waitrose.

In addition, Blake’s research has supported food charities across the UK including City Harvest London, a charity supporting 300 organisations in the city [S3] and The Bread and Butter Thing (TBBT), a Manchester-based charity. TBBT’s CEO identifies Blake’s work as ground-breaking and accessible to practitioners “ Dr, Blake is one of the few academics in the field who have not only researched this but presented it in a pragmatic, practical way that practitioners in the sector can use” [S4].

Business and industry

Blake’s research has influenced major producers in the food sector including Sanworth Brothers, GreenCore, Institute of Grocery Distribution, Business in The Community (BiTC) and the British Poultry Council leading to changes in working practices, strategies, and campaigns.

Blake contributed to the new Greencore Sustainability Report and Plan launched in 2020. The plan aims to roll out their community engagement programme # StartsWithFood to every site and sets out a commitment to ensure 100% of surplus product is donated to communities by 2022. “ For a business understanding how community groups work and how best to work with them can be daunting. Dr Blake steered us through those…discussions and planning and helped us to think about it in a new way” (Head of Sustainability, Greencore [S5]).
The Strategic Partnerships Director at BiTC credits Blake’s work with dramatically shifting their perspective, “She has helped us better understand the food and charity landscape by introducing us to her research… We recognise now that food donations and access to emergency food are only part of the solution” [S6]. Underpinned by the Food Ladders Framework, BiTC have developed a programme that matches community organisations with businesses to strengthen capacity in 10 cities across the UK.

Impact 2: Generating collaborations and policy for social welfare and health

Community-based networks, policy, and food action plans

Blake initially targeted councils and regional alliances in the North of England with particularly high rates of poverty and more limited resources. Blake’s collaborations with local authorities and key stakeholders led to concrete changes in how local councils (now responsible for public health services) tackle food policy. They are now addressing poverty-based food insecurity through coordinating community services to meet the needs of constituents, moving away from previous approaches reliant on individual interventions.

Examples include:

Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council (DMBC)’s Food Action Plan. According to the Director of Public Health Blake’s research has been “instrumental...and has highlighted to us the role of community organisations in supporting communities to eat well” [S7]. Leading to DMBC being recognised as a “sustainable food city” in 2017 by Sustain, which granted them funding for their Veg Cities project. With Clare Relton (Queen Mary University London) Blake received £1.7 million in funding from the National Institute for Health Research to partner with Doncaster Council to implement a fruit and vegetable voucher scheme to those living in low-income neighbourhoods [S8].
Sheffield City Council’s (SCC) Health Impact Assessment on diet and obesity now includes the recommendation that council and partners follow the principles of food ladders across provision [S9]. Recommendations were adopted by the Food Board in October 2020 Dr Blake is a key expert in directly shaping Food Policy in the City (Health Improvement Principal, SCC [S7]). Linked to this Yes2Ventures has secured council space for a social enterprise food-based business and skills incubator.
Together4Sheffield,** a consortium with voluntary and community organisations, is actively mapping support across the city using the Food Ladder’s framework. This is generating new collaborations and new knowledge about the support available.
*Manchester City Council Established a series of learning lunches targeting food support organisations. The first session drew more than 30 participants from across the city. Through this Manchester is improving capacity among the third sector to enhance access to additional support for those receiving food support. This will escalate the mobility of beneficiaries up the ladder through referrals and increase collaboration across the network to create useful intelligence and influence transformation in the city’s foodscape [S7].

The reach of Blake’s work has extended across the UK and Food Ladders is now being used in plans being developed in Birmingham, Newcastle, Liverpool, and Glasgow. Food Ladders are also being promoted in Ireland by Food Cloud (Ireland's version of FareShare) and Ireland's All Island Poverty Network co-chaired by SafeFood and The Food Standards Agency—Ireland.

National collaborations and programmes

FareShare now collaborates with other national organisations, (e.g. British Red Cross) to address additional needs arising alongside food insecurity, including poor mental health and social isolation (Findings B, C). FareShare continued to seek Blake’s expertise and funded her to evaluate this work. They paid Blake to embed the Food Ladders framework during and after COVID-19 to support their network of charity organisations.
A network of ten independent surplus food redistributors, Xcess, was established with Blake’s help with the aim of releasing more surplus food from the supply chain to achieve maximum social value. “ The use of (Blake’s) food ladders …(is) a simple replicable model to show how important it is to unlock more surplus food and redistribute this through channels that address each aspect of support” (CEO, TBBT [S4]). Smaller or more regional redistribution organisations are now more visible to policy makers alongside the large redistributors at meetings with the food industry, WRAP, Defra and others.

Impact 3: Reducing vulnerability to food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic and providing a roadmap for the future

Blake was invited to join the UK Voluntary and Charity Sector Emergency Planning Board’s response to COVID-19 and Brexit. The group is led by FareShare. “ Our work with Dr Blake has helped us to have a wide overview of the food support landscape in the UK and therefore we are uniquely placed to lead on this work” [S2]. The group identifies and promotes interventions including providing vouchers and hardship funds, improving food access and creating diverse foodscapes, linking communities and informing government policy. It drew directly on Blake’s Food Ladders framework to structure its collective response (Finding D). This changed Defra policy with regard to crisis food support, shifting from centralised food parcels to funding collaborative local provision. It also influenced the children’s hunger policy change resulting in £170m in grants to local authorities in the winter of 2020 to support low-income families

“The board has improved inter government relations with the third sector. Having Dr Blake on the board, with her many years of research knowledge, has given it credibility which is incredibly powerful” Independent Government Policy Advisor [S10].

Transformative Gas Sensing Technology in Volcano Monitoring

Submitting institution: The University of Sheffield
Unit of assessment: 14 - Geography and Environmental Studies
Summary impact type: Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

McGonigle’s research has impacted on volcano monitoring agencies across the globe, expediting their purpose to enhance the safety of those living and working near volcanoes. His work focuses on development of novel techniques for monitoring volcanic gases, providing vital data for diagnosing activity and eruption forecasting. Relative to previous instrumentation, this technology delivers enhanced portability, user-friendly operability and accuracy and reduced cost. These units are now internationally adopted standards, with deployment to almost all degassing volcanoes globally thereby increasing access to valuable monitoring data. McGonigle has partnered with NASA to adapt his technology for a Moon lander sensing application. In 2020 McGonigle won the £50,000 first prize in the Aspect Success programme, in recognition of the enterprise, impact and innovation of this work.

2. Underpinning research

McGonigle’s research is focused on inventing technologically innovative and low-cost UV volcano sensing techniques, suitable for widespread dissemination in the global south, and applying them to gain new insights into how volcanoes behave [R1, R2]. This is focused on spectroscopic [R3] and UV camera technologies [R4], in particular McGonigle’s pioneering of the world’s first smartphone sensor-based UV camera [R5, R6], by developing a novel technique for removing the UV absorbing layers from the surface of these detector units. This technology enables capture of gas release data once every few seconds in units as lightweight as 1 kg and with build costs as low as £600, in contrast to 20 kg and £50k, respectively, from the traditionally adopted technology. McGonigle’s sensors also enable direct and accurate measurement of the speed at which the gases are transported from the summit craters. Such data are required in the gas emission rate computation but were hitherto obtained using unreliable proxy data from anemometers. Flux uncertainty has thereby been reduced from ~50% to ~10%. In addition, the UV camera approach’s imaging capacity allows tracking of degassing from one vent to another, such that this technology provides far greater scope to resolve spatially and temporally the trends in behaviour which presage eruptions.

Ultraviolet (UV) sensors measure light intensity at wavelengths from 250 to 400 nanometres, using sources such as the sun, fluorescent lights or germicidal lamps. In volcano monitoring these units are used to measure the rates of gas release from craters to the atmosphere in order to help forecast eruptions. The sensors do this by measuring, at a safe distance from the crater, how much background UV skylight is absorbed by the released gases, from which emission rates can be quantitatively determined. As volcanic gases are sourced from underground magmas, their release rates provide a direct proxy for the rise and fall of magmas within the conduit, enabling diagnosis of activity conditions and prediction of future eruptions. Without such sensors pre-eruptive changes in gas emission rates cannot be identified, severely limiting attempts to predict eruptions and hence issue evacuations which can save human lives.

Until recently UV monitoring approaches were based on outdated technology rendering them bulky, expensive, non-user friendly and unreliable. The reach of captured gas emission data was severely limited, therefore, especially in the global south, where risks are high, but monitoring budgets are restrictive. Furthermore, the acquired data had very poor time resolutions and large errors (typically 2-3 measurements per week, and > 50%, respectively), significantly limiting their utility in resolving changes in behaviour.

The underlying research has been conducted by McGonigle at the University of Sheffield since 2005, supported multiple PI grants, e.g., from The Royal Society (2007-2009; £10k), the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (2008-2013; £80k), the AXA Research Fund (2010-2011; £51k), Google (2013-2014; £6k), The Leverhulme Trust (2016-2017; £44k) and the Rolex Institute (2008-2020; £102k).

4. Details of the impact

McGonigle’s research has led to: 1) transformation of volcano observation by the global reach of these technologies; 2) significantly enhanced monitoring capacity, to the benefit of governmental volcano observatories and citizens living in the vicinity of active volcanoes; 3) the development of next generation space exploration instrumentation, through partnering with NASA. The innovation and transformational impact of his technology was recognised in 2020 when he was awarded first prize, £50,000, in the Aspect Success programme.

1) Transforming volcano observation globally

Global reach has been delivered, since August 2013, through McGonigle’s team training >50 personnel from monitoring agencies in countries including Italy, Papua New Guinea, Ecuador, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, in the use of these technologies, including free distribution of the operating software and hardware protocols developed by this team to ensure the widest possible impact. This has involved invited presentations at key international gatherings of the volcanic gas monitoring community in Ecuador (2017), Perú (2018) and Chile (2019), involving translation of the smartphone UV camera technology into monitoring operations in five Latin American countries with EPSRC Impact Acceleration funding. This led to follow on contracts for McGonigle to instrument volcanoes in northern Chile (£94k; 2019; local government project) [S1, S2] and Perú (£61k; 2019; governmental Geophysical Institute of Perú project) with UV camera and spectrometer units [S3]. More widely McGonigle’s techniques are now ‘used as standard in volcano observatories across the globe’, [S4; Institute of Sustainable Development, France]. Since 2013 more than 100 spectrometer and camera units have been operated on almost every (n>40) degassing volcano on the planet, in more than 30 countries on every continent, resulting in of over 20,000 survey days of data.

2) Significantly enhancing volcano monitoring capacity to the benefit of local populations

Enhanced monitoring capacity has the potential to benefit citizens living in the vicinity of volcanoes. The developed sensors have been deployed to capture pre-eruptive signals on volcanoes near major urban conurbations e.g., the Greater Mexico City region, Mexico (21M people; Popocatépetl volcano), Managua, Nicaragua (1M; Masaya), Quito, Ecuador (1.4M; Reventador), Catania Italy (1M; Etna), Pasto, Colombia (0.4M; Galeras), Goma, DRC (0.4M; Nyiragongo) and San José, Costa Rica (0.3M; Poás).

Furthermore, McGonigle “has pioneered highly significant improvements in the capacity of governmental volcano monitoring agencies across the globe” [S4], by delivering technology with:

Improved portability; the lightweight, easily portable nature of the units means they are easy to transport, even to the ‘most challenging field destination’ [S5; Fredy Apaza, Instituto Geológico Minero y Metalúrgico, Perú]. Previously, deploying gas sensors to many volcanic regions, e.g., in Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia and DRC would have been dangerous, expensive and in some cases impossible.
User friendly operability, enabling non-experts to straightforwardly deploy the units and process the resulting data [S6; Andrea Rizzo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy].
Reduced cost, that has enabled the technology to be distributed globally, particularly across the Global South where resources are limited, thereby vastly increasing the “valuable data that we now have available for monitoring and forecasting” [S4].
Improved data accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution, which enables the volcanic process to be scrutinised in much more detail, leading to new knowledge and understanding [S4].

Overall, this has led to enhanced understanding and forecasting, through increased capacity to resolve transitions from non-eruptive to eruptive activity [S6], directly impacting people living nearby by reducing associated potential volcanic risks to livelihoods and health, including respiratory issues and impact injury.

3) Developing new technologies for space exploration

McGonigle’s UV smartphone sensors have been identified by NASA as a technology suitable for measurement of water in Lunar rocks. This data is key to advancing our grasp of the evolution of the planets and moons of the solar system, and in terms of harvesting this resource for life support in NASA’s planned Artemis program lunar station. Collaboratively McGonigle and NASA have created a novel sensor for lunar rover deployment. Previously, NASA were unable to progress this work, which must be performed on the lunar surface, as there was no market-available UV sensor compact enough for installation on board the proposed shoebox sized ‘puffer’ lunar rovers, yet sensitive enough for this highly challenging measurement. Since 2018 McGonigle has been subcontracted to NASA to co-develop a prototype 60g UV spectrometer for this application, based on his sensor module.

“Although it seems there may be multiple options for detectors, there are few viable, effective detector technologies that meet our requirements. Dr. McGonigle’s research enabled us to develop low-cost, lightweight, and high sensitivity UV sensors using off-the- shelf technology for our breadboard instrument” Research and Instrument Scientist, NASA [S6].

This prototype has already rapidly escalated through NASA’s Technology Readiness Levels (TRL); TRLs are now widely used classification characterising the maturity of technology, ranging from 1- ‘Basic principles observed and reported’ to 9 ‘Actual system "flight proven" through successful mission operations’. The spectrometer has now passed rigorous proof of concept tests, demonstrating sufficient sensitivity for this application, reaching TRL4. In 2020 funding was confirmed, by NASA, for development up to TLR6 'prototype demonstration in a relevant space environment' [S6].

Transforming health-related employment support across the UK

Submitting institution: The University of Sheffield
Unit of assessment: 14 - Geography and Environmental Studies
Summary impact type: Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

For over a decade Whitworth’s research has been at the forefront of analysis of UK employment support policy. Whitworth’s research combines critical and comparative policy analysis with applied empirical analyses of the social and spatial impacts of policy interventions. Reaching beyond the academic community to affect real change in policy is a core component of his research practice. His work has directly influenced and led to significant impacts on priority health-related employment support policies at national, regional, and local levels across the UK:

Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) national employment support policy.
World’s largest Individual Placement and Support (IPS) employment trial across the Sheffield City Region.
New cross-cutting governance mechanisms in the nine local authorities of the Sheffield City Region to deliver better integrated employment support.

2. Underpinning research

Around 75% of unemployed benefit recipients in the UK have health-related barriers to work and most wish to be in employment. However, this large group, despite being a policy priority, has for many decades suffered from markedly weaker outcomes and experiences within the UK’s employment support interventions. In response, Whitworth’s research activities have advanced understanding in:

Identification and payment-by-results redesign

DWP’s flagship £3 billion contracted-out Work Programme promised to transform employment support experiences and outcomes. Serving 2 million unemployed participants across Great Britain between 2011-19, Work Programme relied on an aggressive and differentiated outcome-based payment model to seek to incentivise providers to support all service users effectively. In practice, Work Programme saw poor targeting, generic support, disappointing outcomes, and evidence of deliberate neglect (‘parking’) of more challenging unemployed participants [R1]. Parking refers to deliberately neglecting to give time, energy, or resources to unemployed claimants with more substantial barriers to work, given that such claimants are considered to be relatively unlikely to move into paid work and/or to require considerable, and usually expensive, employment support to make a move into paid work realistic [R2]. Whitworth’s innovative statistical analyses provided the first and most robust quantitative decimation of Work Programme’s flawed participant identification process and payment model design as well as alternative evidence-based proposals for each [R2].

Transforming work-health support

Individual Placement and Support (IPS) is an internationally recognised employment support model for service users with severe mental health conditions. It involves IPS employment advisors working to an IPS fidelity scale co-located into secondary mental health teams. IPS is well-evidenced internationally to be effective but is niche in terms of its cohorts, settings, and participant volumes. As such there is enormous policy attention internationally in seeking to modify IPS models and successes to far larger and wider health cohorts across primary care and community settings. The key to success of modified IPS models is to amend the core IPS fidelity scale for these changed cohorts, settings and volumes whilst retaining IPS’s evidenced effectiveness. Whitworth’s research has led international scholarship, setting out an original analytical framework and critical guidance for the rigorous design of modified IPS models tailored to local contexts [R3] as well as then in their robust cost-benefit analysis to inform policy decision-making [R4].

Devolution and integration

Local integration is key to delivering coordinated whole-person support for unemployed individuals with health conditions and wider multiple needs, a key weakness and strategic priority in UK employment support. Whitworth’s research has advanced governance scholarship through his original distinction between its ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ forms and zooming in on positively networked accountability as the key but currently neglected route to effective policy integration [R5, R6].

His policy engagement has transformed health-related employment support in the UK in four key areas: design of payment-by-results models; identifying the right individuals for programme participation; transforming work-health employment support interventions; and unpacking the potential of devolution for locally integrated interventions.

4. Details of the impact

Whitworth’s research has transformed policy understanding, and the design and effectiveness of health-related employment support policies in the UK at national and regional levels.

National policy impacts in the UK

Enhancing policymakers’ understandings of programme design

Since 2019 the £600 million voluntary Work and Health Programme (WHP) has replaced the Work Programme as Great Britain’s main contracted-out national employment support programme. DWP’s key performance lever in WHP was a payment-by-results model through which to drive employment outcomes, taxpayer value-for-money and positive service user experiences. From 2015-16, Whitworth was seconded to the DWP and embedded into DWP’s two key teams responsible: firstly, for the WHP participant identification and segmentation tool and, secondly, for WHP’s payment-by-results model. Whitworth guided the team through the key considerations, led team design workshops, and input to senior submissions. Whitworth’s impacts on WHP design were both general and specific. As the DWP Lead Analyst responsible for the WHP payment design summarised: “Adam’s expertise in segmentation and payment-by-results across similar international contracted employment programmes provided an invaluable evidence base and guidance to our thinking” [S1].

Beyond guiding DWP’s overall understanding and thinking in these design teams, Whitworth’s impacts were central to shaping three specific elements of the WHP design:

Identifying the right unemployed individuals for the programme

The WHP is designed with a specific cohort in mind - unemployed individuals with health conditions or disabilities and who have a reasonable prospect of moving into paid work with additional intensive support. Therefore, it is essential that the correct individuals are identified and referred to the programme. If they are not specific, key features of the WHP, including funding per participant, delivery model, support services, and outcome targets on providers cannot be realised. Whitworth’s research expertise in statistical profiling and segmentation [R2] was central to shaping WHP’s final design, including the development of WHP’s Identification Tool to select appropriate referrals from Jobcentre Plus into WHP. Whitworth provided expertise around profiling and segmentation and various profiling options. In addition, he recommended and advised on the incorporation of knockout questions to exclude referrals clearly outside of the target cohort as well as scoring questions to then prioritise the most appropriate referrals of those remaining. Both were incorporated into Identification Tool used by the DWP. As the Head of Health Provision, Change and Design at DWP summarises: “ His recommendations around priorities and a proposed design approach for the Identification Tool to achieve them was influential in shaping our thinking and impacted directly on its final design and operation in Work and Health Programme” [S2].

Payment-by-results design: avoiding the previous pitfalls from differential pricing

Whitworth’s research [R2] identified that incorporating different payment groups and levels into the Work Programme created perverse incentives and ‘parking’ risks and, as a result, undercut DWP’s outcomes, user experiences, and value-for-money objectives. His findings were key to DWP’s decision not to attempt to incorporate these different payment groups and levels into WHP. Whitworth’s research [R2] was cited to this effect in DWP’s official impact evaluation of Work Programme [S3] and as the central piece of research evidence in the design team’s key recommendation to DWP’s Senior Programme Board to avoid payment groups and differential pricing in WHP [S4]. This recommendation was accepted and WHP therefore avoids problematic differentiated payment groups. As the DWP Lead Analyst summarises: “Adam’s research into the weaknesses of the Work Programme payment model, and his knowledge of the limits of DWP’s administrative data for profiling, was key to our recommendation…and fed directly into shaping the eventual payment-by-results design” [S1].

Introduction of up-front secure fees whilst maintaining outcomes incentives.

Finally, Whitworth’s research [R1, R2, R5] was key to persuading DWP that secure up-front service fees of around £600 per customer needed to be included into WHP alongside its outcome-payments, unlike the predecessor Work Programme. This is to both to mitigate ‘parking’ risks and to help smaller specialist third sector providers to be able to engage with the programme – key weaknesses of Work Programme. Whitworth’s contribution directly shaped the eventual payment-by-results design and the decision to use upfront payments [S1].

Regional policy impacts in the UK

Evidence-based design of the world’s largest IPS trial

From 2016-2018 Whitworth led the design of Sheffield City Region’s (SCR) modified IPS health-led employment trial (HLET) during his extended secondment to SCR (£102,000 financed by SCR). With the aim of transforming employment support for individuals with health conditions across the UK, the HLET is a randomised control trial and flagship national policy of the DWP-DH joint Work and Health Unit (WHU). SCR contains around two million residents across nine local authorities spanning South Yorkshire, Derbyshire, and Nottinghamshire.

Individual Placement and Support (IPS) is a well-evidenced employment support model for individuals with severe mental health conditions. The HLET is the world’s largest IPS trial (£20m, 15,000 service users) and innovatively modifies the traditional IPS model for new cohorts, settings, functions, and volumes. Specifically, unique IPS features designed into in SCR’s HLET by Whitworth are its expansion to a low to moderate mental health and/or physical health cohort, its expansion to an in-work cohort at risk of sickness absence, and its co-location with wider primary care teams (e.g. GPs, physios, IAPT mental health teams) and community services.

Whitworth led protocol development, design, costings, profiling, and evaluation strategy for the HLET. As the HLET Programme Lead at the national WHU describes, Whitworth’s research expertise provided “considerable added value” in a number of areas. This includes model design, costings, profiling, and local evaluation strategy, but particularly in the central IPS task of “careful adaptation of the IPS fidelity scale to address the need of our trial cohorts, which differ from the [IPS] norm in terms of key patient characteristics, caseload sizes and delivery settings” [S5]. As the Director of Public Health in Rotherham, writes: “Adam’s knowledge of international employment schemes for people with health issues and of the IPS fidelity scale and evidence base, and how to flex it, has been essential to guide us through the project winning, design and launch so successfully” [S6]. Dan Jarvis MP, Mayor of SCR, writes: “Your excellent modelling and extensive knowledge of employment support programmes will transform the lives of those who are unemployed or in work and struggling within the City Region” [S7].

The HLET has successfully transformed experiences and outcomes for this key cohort. As of October 2020, the HLET had supported 3,010 service users in total: 1,800 unemployed individuals of whom 33% had successfully been supported into paid employment and 1,210 employed individuals at risk of sickness absence of whom 76% had successfully sustained their employment [S8]. HLET’s 33% success rate compares to a 10% ‘business-as-usual’ Jobcentre Plus counterfactual for the unemployed cohort where reliable benchmark data are known. For this HLET cohort alone this equates to an expected Treasury gain in reduced benefit spend and increased tax take of £6.3 million over 5 years. Although important, such financial calculations fail however to capture the HLET human impacts. One service user says of her success with the HLET: “It’s a very lonely place when you are out of work. But now that I have a job my whole outlook has changed, and things are on the way up. I’m over the moon with my new role and it’s a real pleasure to come to work!” [S8].

Building new regional governance to drive enhanced local integration.

Underpinned by Whitworth’s research into the potential for devolution to drive local integration [R5, R6], a second strand of regional impact relates to SCR’s development of innovative new cross-cutting governance mechanisms – Local Integration Boards (LIBs). Each of the SCR’s nine local authorities use these new governance arrangements to enable effective whole-person employment support. As the Director for Health Improvement in Sheffield, says: “Adam has presented and shared some of his academic work on these ideas to those of us closely involved, and those concepts and thinking have shaped the development of the local system and policy landscape… As a result SCR and political leaders have signed up to building a set of new governance mechanisms called Local Integration Boards (LIBs) across the nine local authorities in SCR” [S9]. Over 100,000 SCR residents are currently unemployed and with multiple support needs but failing to receive the coordinated whole-person support that they require. LIBs represent a key strategic change locally in overcoming this current fragmentation of services.

Taken together, the changes to the employment support system, and how that benefits service user experiences and outcomes, are significant. As the Chief Executive of SCR writes, “Adam’s expertise has had major impacts in the city-region’s employment landscape whether measured in terms of our substantive shift towards better locally integrated employment programmes that Adam consistently advocated, or in terms of the hard numbers” [S10].

Transforming time: understanding climate change and human history using IntCal radiocarbon ...

Submitting institution: The University of Sheffield
Unit of assessment: 14 - Geography and Environmental Studies
Summary impact type: Environmental
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?: No

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1. Summary of the impact

Radiocarbon (¹⁴C) is the most frequently used approach to dating organic artefacts from the last 55,000 years. However, all radiocarbon dating requires calibration to transform ¹⁴C measurements into calendar ages. The IntCal Working Group (IWG) is an international team of 27 scientists formed in 2001 to establish criteria for calibration data and methods for curve construction. Sheffield researchers conducted the key research that gave rise to the curve being developed. The IntCal calibration curve has international reach as the global standard for radiocarbon calibration, being used by all major commercial ¹⁴C laboratories. It has underpinned global climate change policy, and impacted archaeological practice and planning and development decisions in the heritage sector.

2. Underpinning research

Radiocarbon dating relies on the simple idea that, while alive, organisms take in carbon from their surroundings and so have a ratio of isotope ¹²C to ¹⁴C that is in equilibrium with their atmosphere. Once an organism dies, it stops taking in new carbon, the stable ¹²C remains but the ¹⁴C decays at a known rate. Measuring the ratio of ¹⁴C to ¹²C left in a sample therefore provides a dating technique.

If the concentration of atmospheric ¹⁴C had been constant throughout history, this would be straightforward. However, it has fluctuated significantly. In order to date organisms precisely scientists need calibration curves, which provide a reliable historical record of this ¹⁴C variation to accurately transform their radiocarbon measurements into calendar ages. Uncalibrated radiocarbon measurements differ substantially from the best estimates of actual calendar dates and so are of little interpretive value. Sheffield researchers, together with their international collaborators, provide the globally ratified standard for this calibration via the series of IntCal calibration curves.

The IntCal Working Group (IWG) is an international team of 27 scientists formed in 2001 to establish criteria for calibration data and methods for curve construction. Sheffield researchers have been members since 2001. The key research that gave rise to the impact was undertaken at the University of Sheffield, between 2001 and 2014, by Professor Caitlin Buck, and Professor Paul Blackwell and Dr Tim Heaton (UoA 10). It involved development of a fully probabilistic modelling framework for estimating radiocarbon calibration curves and a suite of Bayesian implementation methods that can be extended as new data structures become available.

Sheffield models and methods have been used for all IntCal curve updates since 2004. The group produces three regularly updated curves dependent upon the environment where the object to be dated obtained its carbon: IntCalXX (where XX represents the year of release) for the Northern Hemispheric atmosphere, SHCalXX for the Southern Hemisphere, and MarineXX for the world’s oceans. These updates (in 2004 [R1], 2009 [R2], 2013 **[R3]**) replaced the previous curves and were made as our understanding of the Earth system advanced and new data sets, such as tree rings, plant macrofossils, or corals, became available. Each update provided new challenges for the Sheffield team members as the unique elements of the calibration data led to modelling complexity. These required bespoke solutions and close collaboration with co-authors to ensure their expert knowledge was incorporated. The 2009 update provided an extension of the calibration curves back from 24,000 (their previous limit) to 50,000 years before present, allowing calibration for the full limit of the radiocarbon technique for the first time. This required Sheffield to provide a careful statistical synthesis of a variety of new reference data sources and novel uncertainty quantification [R4, R5]. For the 2013 curves, Sheffield identified previously unconsidered sources of uncertainty in the reference data and developed new approaches to quantify and incorporate them [R6].

The IWG crosses interdisciplinary boundaries and key to the construction of all the curves are the modelling and statistical analyses, by Sheffield researchers, which are required to combine the diverse data sets, each with their own specific attributes, into each of the IntCalXX, SHCalXX and MarineXX curves.

3. References to the research

Reimer, P.J., Baillie, M.G.J., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J.W., Bertrand, C.J.H., Blackwell, P.G., Buck, C.E., Burr, G.E., Cutler, K.B., Damon, P.E., Edwards, R.L., Fairbanks, R.G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T.P., Hogg, A.G., Hughen, K.A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., … Weyhenmeyer, C.E. (2004). IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. (2004). Radiocarbon, 46(3), 1029–1058. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033822200032999

Reimer, P. J., Baillie, M. G. L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Blackwell, P. G., Bronk Ramsey, C., Buck, C. E., Burr, G. S., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T. J., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kaiser, K. F., Kromer, B., … Weyhenmeyer, C. E. (2009). IntCal09 and Marine09 Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curves, 0–50,000 Years cal BP. Radiocarbon, 51(4), 1111–1150. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033822200034202 [3,831 citations, Scopus 28 May 2020]

Reimer, P. J., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Blackwell, P. G., Ramsey, C. B., Buck, C. E., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Haflidason, H., Hajdas, I., Hatté, C., Heaton, T. J., Hoffmann, D. L., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., … van der Plicht, J. (2013). IntCal13 and Marine13 Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curves 0–50,000 Years cal BP. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1869–1887. https://doi.org/10.2458/azu_js_rc.55.16947. [6,739 citations, Scopus 28 May 2020]

Across all disciplines, this was the most cited paper published by UK authors in 2013, and the sixth most cited published by U.S. authors in 2013.

Buck, C. E., & Blackwell, P. G. (2004). Formal Statistical Models for Estimating Radiocarbon Calibration Curves. Radiocarbon, 46(3), 1093–1102. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033822200033026

Heaton, T. J., Blackwell, P. G., & Buck, C. E. (2009). A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Radiocarbon Calibration Curves: The IntCal09 Methodology. Radiocarbon, 51(4), 1151–1164. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033822200034214

Niu, M., Heaton, T. J., Blackwell, P. G., & Buck, C. E. (2013). The Bayesian Approach to Radiocarbon Calibration Curve Estimation: The IntCal13, Marine13, and SHCal13 Methodologies. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1905–1922. https://doi.org/10.2458/azu_js_rc.55.17222

4. Details of the impact

All radiocarbon dating requires calibration to transform ¹⁴C measurements into calendar ages. IntCal curves are the internationally agreed standard for the radiocarbon calibration - everyone in the world who uses radiocarbon dating depends upon the IntCal curves to calibrate their radiocarbon dates. There are currently at least 141,%20a) laboratories around the world with facilities for radiocarbon dating, all of which use IntCal13, SHCal13, and Marine13 calibrations [S1]. Published laboratory codes from 14 major labs indicate that over 120,000 samples were dated per year between 2013 and 2018. Of these, over 93% are calibrated using IntCal curves. There are currently no competitors to the curves provided by the IntCal Working Group and without curves the laboratory results are not interpretable as dates. At a cost of £350 per date this equates to over £42 million per annum generated for commercial laboratories. Without the curves the revenue generated for commercial laboratories by radiocarbon dating would be considerably lower.

The ability to obtain accurate and precise dating is fundamental, as it informs many of the economic and professional decisions relating to the protection, conservation, and understanding of the Historic Environment. As the global standard for radiocarbon dating, the IntCal curves provide a consistent chronology that enables accurate measurements and verification of findings across the globe. They provide validity and enable cross checking and comparison of dates and discoveries. IntCalXX delivers “ robust, reliable, and readily comparable chronologies between, and within, projects” [S1].

The President of Beta Analytic, the largest commercial radiocarbon laboratory in the world, describes the IntCal curves as “ the recognized standard for radiocarbon age calibrations” and recommends recent updates “ as the primary (and preferably only) curves used for radiocarbon dating calibrations” [S2]. Time and monetary constraints would not otherwise allow for such robust statistical methodology and curve refinement within the commercial environment without the findings from the IWG [S2]. In addition, the frequent updates to the IntCal curves have generated improved understanding by allowing for over a million previously produced radiocarbon ages to be reviewed and updated, thus producing ‘new and exciting interpretations’ of historic events [S2].

Accurate and reliable radiocarbon dates calibrated with IntCal09 and IntCal13 have therefore had an impact in a wide range of different social and economic areas since 2013. The following examples have been chosen to demonstrate the variety of fields in which these dating methods are used, and the breadth of impacts that have affected a diverse range of beneficiaries.

Impact on global climate change policy

A precise understanding of our past climate is needed to understand, predict, and mitigate potential, current, and future changes. The IntCal curves enable the comparison of environmental records on radiocarbon timescales with other key independent timescales (e.g. ice-cores).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body responsible for assessing climate change science. Used by policy makers to understand risks, and plan adaptations and mitigations, its reports are the most authoritative documents influencing understanding of international climate change. In September 2013, 259 experts from 39 countries published ‘Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis’, a comprehensive assessment of evidence of climate change. 80 publications cited in this assessment relied on the IntCal curves for their calendar dates [S3].

This assessment formed the scientific basis for the 5^th IPCC report (published in 2014 and agreed by governments of all IPCC member countries). This was described by the vice-chair of the IPCC’s Working Group 3, which deals with measures to mitigate climate change, as “ the most important report the IPCC has ever produced” [S4] as it underpinned the United Nations climate talks in Paris in 2015. These talks led to the formation of the Paris Agreement, the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate change agreement, adopted December 2015 and formally ratified by the EU in October 2016 [S5].

Regents’ Professor, Northern Arizona University, and lead author of Chapter 2 of the 6^th IPCC report testifies that the IntCal curves have “ been critical for providing a perspective on past climate […] essential for our understanding of the climate system, and a baseline for modelling future changes”. IntCal curves are “highly relevant” to policy development as they provide new understanding on the carbon cycle and the processes in the Earth’s climate system [S6].

Impact on developers and practitioners in the protection and appreciation of the historic environment

The IntCal curves provide a reliable, rigorous, international, industry-wide standard that is vital to the commissioning and delivery of commercial archaeology [S1]. The comparability and consistency provided by the IntCal curves, together with improvements in the precision and accuracy of these curves, ensures clear value for money for the construction and land development industry. This funds the great majority of archaeological investigation (a market currently worth an estimated £200 million annually in England, and €2 billion annually across Europe) [S1].

The Bayesian approach used to compile the IntCal curves allows integration with the standard use of Bayesian chronological modelling in the archaeological sector. Within the archaeological sector, calibrated radiocarbon dating, using the IntCal curves, is frequently a required step in the planning process when archaeological work is commissioned for new construction development including large-scale projects [S1]. The National Head of Research at Historic England states that radiocarbon dating and calibration using the IntCal curves, in combination with Bayesian chronological modelling are “ fundamental elements of archaeological specifications issued as part of the planning process” [S1].

Thus, the IntCal curves provide essential infrastructure that enables developers to commission archaeological work to standards that meet regulatory guidance in the UK and beyond [S1].

Increased public awareness in the historic environment

The Heritage Sector is an important economic sector. In England, in 2019, it directly provided £14.7 billion GVA and 206,000 jobs. Knowledge is critical to public enjoyment of the Historic Environment and is often underpinned by accurate radiocarbon dating. In England it provided new insights into the construction of Stonehenge. This knowledge has been incorporated into displays in the Stonehenge visitors’ centre and accompanying recreation of Neolithic houses, both opened in December 2013. IntCal09 enabled “ novel insight” that “ fed directly into the presentation of the Stonehenge site” [S1].

In China, IntCal13 provided evidence for the earliest water-management site in Liangzhu City. IntCal13 calibrated dates were subsequently used in its application, and 2019 inscription, to UNESCO’s World Heritage List. Having a site inscribed on the World Heritage List increases the prestige of the site and helps raise awareness among citizens and governments for the preservation of that site. This increased awareness facilitates a rise in the level of the protection and conservation given to heritage properties. Countries can also apply for financial assistance and expert advice from the World Heritage Committee to support activities for the preservation of its sites.

The site provides new insights into Chinese history by ‘ authentically and credibly demonstrating the degree of development of the rice-cultivating civilization […] in the Neolithic’ [S7]. Use of IntCal13 on artefacts from Liangzhu City provided scientific confirmation for the first time that ‘ Chinese are the inheritors of a 5,000-year-old unbroken cultural tradition’ [S7]. These results are used in 2019-20 Chinese history and mathematics textbooks, an act the president of the Chinese Archaeological Society states helped ‘ foster a cultural confidence among young people’ and improved ‘ their awareness of cultural protection and heritage’ [S7].

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