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Showing impact case studies 1 to 8 of 8
Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Companies around the world from HSBC to the Dutch recruitment giant Randstad have applied the results of Cable’s research to boost the wellbeing and productivity of their staff. The Indian call centre firm Wipro, for example, says the research helped it to reduce staff turnover by a third.

Cable has produced a popular book that summarises the insights which has sold almost 40,000 copies. And he has been invited to address and advise senior staff at firms including BMW, Facebook and Ericsson.

2. Underpinning research

The research focuses on ways to improve staff wellbeing and performance by encouraging and enabling them to express their unique values and selves in the workplace. It has identified several steps that organisations can follow to become more productive, for example by reducing staff turnover. These small, low-cost interventions can have very large outcomes because they change the nature of the relationship between employer and employees.

One study looked at why employees tend to be more satisfied at work when they believe the employing company shares their values. There is lots of evidence that this so-called “value congruence” effect is strong and influences, for example, workers’ desire to stay with the organisation. The research [3.1] asked a different question: why do shared values have this effect? Through surveys of 997 employees at four water treatment agencies in the US, it generated data to show the value congruence effect was down to building trust between the worker and the organisation and its members.

Another project examined what happens when people exaggerate their skills and experiences at job interviews – the “fake it ‘til you make it” strategy. Surveys of 2,673 people from 107 countries tracked their attitudes and how they performed in the workplace [3.2]. The results showed that applicants who were more honest about the type of person they are, including faults, (called self-verification striving) had happier and more productive experiences at work. Those who try to be someone they are not find it harder because they frequently lack the ability required and become less committed.

A related study looked at ways to improve the experience of employees joining a new organisation by finding ways for them to express their best selves, instead of just expecting them to fit in. In a laboratory study with students and a field experiment with 600 new-starters at an Indian call centre company, the research showed that encouraging people to talk about their strengths, what they could offer the company, and to recall a time when they thought they had fulfilled their potential at work, boosted their self-esteem, their workplace performance and willingness to stay [3.3]. The effects of this socialization exercise were also written up in a publication aimed more directly at the business community [3.4].

A final project studied the positive impacts of workers being able to write their own job titles [3.5]. It surveyed 31 staff at the Make-A-Wish foundation in the US, who were encouraged to invent light-hearted descriptions to supplement their formal titles. (Examples included “goddess of greeting” and “duchess of data”.) Surprisingly, this small change made a significant difference by reducing staff emotional exhaustion. A follow-up trial in a health care system showed the same effect: staff given the opportunity to write their own job titles reported less emotional exhaustion five weeks later.

A popular-business book further explored insights from the research. Called Alive at Work: The Neuroscience of Helping Your People Love What They Do, the book argues that the reason for all the unhappiness is biological: organizations, in an effort to routinize work and establish clear-cut performance metrics, are suppressing what neuroscientists call our Seeking Systems, the part of our brain that craves exploration and learning.

3. References to the research

[3.1] Edwards J & Cable DM The value of value congruence. Journal of Applied Psychology 94 (3) 654 – 677 (2009). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0014891

[3.2] Cable DM & Kay V Striving for self-verification during organisational entry. Academy of Management Journal 55 (2) 360–380 (2012). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2010.0397

[3.3] Cable DM, Gino F & Staats BR Breaking them in or eliciting their best? Reframing socialisation around newcomers’ authentic self-expression. Administrative Science Quarterly 58 (1) February 8 (2013). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0001839213477098

[3.4] Cable DM, Gino F & Staats BR Reinventing employee onboarding. MIT Sloan Management Review 54 (3) (2013) https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/reinventing-employee-onboarding/

[3.5] Grant A, Berg J & Cable DM Job titles as identity badges: how self-reflective titles can reduce emotional exhaustion. Academy of Management Journal 57 (4) 1201–1225 (2014). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2012.0338

[3.6] Cable DM Alive at Work: The Neuroscience of Helping Your People Love What They Do (2018) Harvard Business Review Press.

ISBN:9781633694255

4. Details of the impact

The route to impact has largely been through the dissemination of Cable’s ideas and findings to a broader audience through the book Alive at Work: The Neuroscience of Helping Your People Love What They Do [3.6]. As a consequence, the results and insights generated by the research [3.1] [3.2] [3.3] [3.4] [3.5] have been used by companies around the world to raise staff morale and productivity.

Selling nearly 40,000 copies across the world, the book’s success has provided a platform for Cable to speak directly to companies. From 2018-2019 he accepted invitations to address senior staff at 18 different firms, including Facebook, MetLife, Ericsson, BMW, Estee Lauder and Louis Vuitton.

Significant numbers of senior business leaders have read the book themselves and changed their practice as a result – at the banking group HSBC for example. The UK frozen food company COOK organised an event for 120 team leaders based around principles from the book. James Rutter, the company’s chief creative officer, who read the book and organised the event, says: “It has had a real impact on us at COOK.” The research, he adds, has: “really helped shape how we’ve gone about seeking to enrich and deepen our culture over the past 12 months”. [5.1]

Another example of the research having impact was the Indian call centre company Wipro. A field project there [3.3] showed that giving new starters an hour dedicated to asking them to talk about their strengths and to explore times when they had been most successful at work had a surprisingly large effect. Most strikingly, it reduced staff turnover by a third, compared to employees who received the company’s standard orientation, which instead focused on corporate values and behaviours. Wipro managers were so impressed (the company employs 30 new people each day and turnover is a significant cost) that they scaled up the results of the field trial and, following consultation with Cable, introduced the practice into the call centre organization in 2013.

Another strong example of impact is the Netherlands-based recruitment consultants Randstad. It has incorporated Cable’s findings into leadership training for 1,000 senior staff and integrated the “best self” idea [3.3] into its Customer Delight programme across 14 countries. The company says: “The impact of the best self is such an energizing moment. It lights up the eyes and creates a completely different energy for the rest of the training”. [5.2] The company adds: “The work of Dan Cable has been helping Randstad transform and will continue to be very valuable to Randstad in the future.” [5.2]

The research has also generated much interest in the media – both popular and business publications. Dozens of articles have appeared from Psychology Today to Forbes. [5.3] Four pieces Cable published on the website of the Harvard Business Review have together reached 1 million page views. A piece on humble leadership alone has more than 700,000. “ That’s amazing,” says Kevin Evers of the HBR. [5.4]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] James Rutter, COOK – Beneficiary Letter

[5.2] Jos Schut, CHRO, Randstad – Beneficiary Letter

[5.3] Media Coverage: Links to publications

[5.4] Kevin Evers, HBR – 1 million page views

Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

The thinking and actions of some of the world’s leading monetary and financial policymakers have been changed by this research, which identified a previously-unknown feature of the global economic system.

First presented in 2013, the finding that decisions made on US interest rates can alter the flow of investment into and out of countries across the world, as part of a global financial cycle, challenged standard thinking about the relationship between exchange rate regimes, monetary policy and financial stability. It has since dominated economic and financial discussions on the world stage.

It has “ influenced our thinking about the effect of monetary policy in risk taking in international financial markets” says Janet Yellen, former Chair of the US Federal Reserve and current US Treasury Secretary.

2. Underpinning research

When the United States sneezes, it is said that the rest of the world catches a cold. That’s usually taken to indicate the outsized global influence of American culture, politics and economic performance. This research identifies a more subtle – but just as significant – knock-on effect of US actions. It shows that decisions made on US interest rates can alter global financial conditions as measured by spreads, risky asset prices, credit creation and capital flows into and out of countries across the world, as part of a global financial cycle.

Hélène Rey first suggested the idea of a global financial cycle in a paper she presented to the prestigious Jackson Hole Symposium in August 2013 [3.1].

This pioneering idea was based on Rey’s analysis of how international bond, equity and bank lending flows, risky asset prices and credit growth tend to move together globally, creating a “global financial cycle”. The study showed how the ups and downs of the cycle seem to align with an index called VIX, a traded asset which reflects the expected market volatility over the next month as well as investor sentiment.

Next, Rey analysed how this global financial cycle impacted financial conditions within countries, as waves of capital washed in and out. She showed that stock market returns, corporate credit spreads, banking sector leverage growth and house price inflation correlated with changes in the VIX, and so with changes in risk taking and the global financial cycle. This effect of the global financial cycle on national financial conditions happened irrespective of the exchange rate regime [3.2].

Finally, the project investigated the cause of fluctuations in the global financial cycle. Rey [3.3] analysed monthly data for 1980 – 2010 (the post crisis sample 2010-2019 was subsequently studied in [3.4]) using newly developed econometric methods enabling to put in evidence causal links between variables. Rey found that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve was an important driver of the global financial cycle. A hundred basis points increase in the effective federal funds rate in the US leads to a contemporaneous increase in risk aversion, a decrease in the estimated global factor in risky asset prices (akin to a 10 percentage points drop in major stock indices), an appreciation of the US Dollar, a decrease in global domestic credit and in leverage for US and non US banks as well as a fall in capital inflows.

Shocks to US monetary policy, in other words, cause spill-over effects on the financial conditions of other countries. This US-induced tightening in advanced economies and emerging markets alike occurs whether or not countries have a flexible exchange rate. Rey [3.3] shows it also takes place in the UK and the Euro area for example.

The finding is significant because it challenges conventional economic wisdom known as the Mundellian trilemma. This states that countries who allow free mobility of capital across their borders, can pursue an independent monetary policy, if and only if they allow the value of their currency to rise and fall relative to others.

The impact of a global financial cycle collapses this trilemma into a dilemma: a country cannot have both monetary and financial autonomy and free import and export of capital, even with a flexible exchange rate. Put another way, if a country wishes to set its own monetary and financial conditions, it must introduce robust macroprudential policies to regulate the financial sector and sometimes it must restrict international capital flows [3.5].

3. References to the research

[3.1] Hélène Rey "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence", Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium (2013).DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w21162

[3.2] Passari, Evgenia, and Hélène Rey. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System" The Economic Journal (2015), 125 (584): 675-698.DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12268

[3.3] Miranda-Agrippino Silvia and Hélène Rey “US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle” The Review of Economic Studies (2020), 87 (6): 2754-2776.DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa019

[3.4] Miranda-Agrippino Silvia and Hélène Rey “The Global Financial Cycle after Lehman” AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol.110, May (2020).DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201096

[3.5] Hélène Rey “International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma”, Mundell Fleming Lecture, IMF Economic Review (2016) 64:6.DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2016.4

4. Details of the impact

The research Rey presented in 2013, which showed for the first time that the world’s financial system runs as a cycle largely controlled by US monetary policy, was provocative, widely discussed and has proven to be very influential at the highest levels.

Following the high-profile launch of her idea [3.1], Rey has been invited to give several highly prestigious lectures on this research such as the Mundell Fleming Lecture at the IMF in 2014 (first woman to give it; 2013 speaker Paul Krugman, 2015 speaker Ben Bernanke) [5.1], the Paolo Baffi lecture at the Banca d’Italia (first woman) in 2019 [5.2], the Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture at the Bank for International Settlement (first woman) in 2017 [5.3]. The IMF constructed its entire 2017 Annual Research Conference on the concept of the “global financial cycle” that was introduced by Rey’s research [5.4].

Backed with solid academic research, Rey’s efforts to discuss and share the findings placed her idea firmly at the top of the global economic agenda.

Because many variables combine to inform and steer economic policies, such as the setting of national interest rates, it is difficult to draw a straight line of cause and effect between Rey’s academic research and specific rate setting or macroprudential decisions. As such, the impact of the research is best indicated by the reach and influence that the results have had on those who do make such decisions. The research has also helped shape the new integrated policy framework of the International Monetary Fund.

For example, Janet Yellen, Chair of the US Federal Reserve from 2014-2018, says:

“Hélène Rey’s research on the global financial cycle and the trilemma has been important in informing Federal Open Market Committee discussions especially about the effect of US monetary policy on the rest of the world. It has also influenced our thinking about the effect of monetary policy in risk taking in international financial markets.” [5.5]

“This line of research is interesting and important. Given the sometimes severe consequences of financial instability, we have to take these issues very seriously,” says Ben Bernanke, also a former US Federal Reserve Chair. [5.6]

“The presence of borrowers and lenders operating in multiple currencies and in multiple countries creates multiple channels through which developments in financial conditions can be transmitted across countries,” says Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the Financial Stability Board and since 2019, UN special envoy for climate action and finance.

“Hélène Rey has been a key proponent of the importance of such channels,” he says. [5.7] The research made “an influential contribution to the discussions at the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.” [5.8]

The research “has helped transform central bank thinking on the international transmission of monetary policy” says Benoît Cœuré, Head of the BIS Innovation Hub and former member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank. [5.9]

He adds: “Professor Rey’s research on the Mundell trilemma and her concept of a “global financial cycle” have led central bankers to qualify their traditional views about monetary policy independence and flexible exchange rates, and have been very influential. We used them at the European Central Bank to understand the international consequences of our conventional and non-conventional monetary policy measures. I have myself referred to Professor Rey’s research in several public speeches as ECB Executive Board member.“

The research has changed how the IMF operates. IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath says: “Professor Rey’s research has been very useful for us. So much so that her insights have been incorporated in the new analytical Integrated Policy Framework of the Fund. We highlight in this new conceptual model the possible role of foreign exchange intervention and capital flow measures to improve monetary autonomy following shocks to international risk appetite. This is in accordance with Professor Rey’s work. This new conceptual framework will, subject to approval from the Board, be gradually rolled out to help our policy advice to emerging markets and advanced economies.” [5.10]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] Mundell-Fleming Lecture - Monetary Policy and International Capital Flows - 13/11/2014 - https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=3895753082001

[5.2] - Fourteenth Paolo Baffi Lecture on Money and Finance, Banca d’Italia, 22/11/2019 - https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/lezioni-baffi/pblecture-14/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1

[5.3] Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture, Bank for International Settlements, 25/06/2017 - https://www.bis.org/events/agm2017/sp170625.htm

[5.4] IMF Conference -Eighteenth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference: The Global Financial Cycle, November 2-3, 2017 - https://www.imf.org/en/News/Seminars/Conferences/2017/09/18/2017-eighteenth-annual-research-conference

[5.5] Janet Yellen - Beneficiary statement

[5.6] Ben Bernanke’s Blog -"Tantrums and hot money: How does Fed policy affect global financial stability?", 06/01/2016 - https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/01/06/tantrums-and-hot-money-how-does-fed-policy-affect-global-financial-stability/

[5.7] 2017 IMF Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture: Speech by Mark Carney, "[De]Globalisation and inflation", 18/09/2017; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2017/de-globalisation-and-inflation.pdf

[5.8] Mark Carney - Beneficiary Statement

[5.9] Benoît Cœuré - Beneficiary Statement

[5.10] Gita Gopinath - Beneficiary Statement

Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Dozens of firms including TecBan (Brazil), Enel (Italy) and Microsoft (US) have used Birkinshaw’s findings and ideas to re-organise, restructure and rethink their business – making them less bureaucratic and better able to act in more nimble ways.

Benefits include high staff morale, faster adaptation to changed circumstances, better engagement with customers, and increased productivity. For example, after re-organising based on advice from Birkinshaw in 2018, TecBan saw 2019 revenues grow by 12%.

After the Brazilian/US consulting company CI&T based a 2017 re-organisation on Birkinshaw’s research, the company grew its revenue per employee by almost 40%.

2. Underpinning research

The research identifies specific changes firms can make to innovate their management model -- the way they are organised and the way they manage their internal operations – so as to move away from the industrial model of organisation developed last century towards one more relevant for today’s digital world. The research also provides a specific, experiment-based methodology to allow firms to implement the necessary changes.

With colleagues, Birkinshaw wrote a highly influential 2008 paper in the Academy of Management Review that introduced to many the concept of – and the study of – management innovation [3.1]. Widely regarded as the first step towards a systematic theory of how management innovation occurs, the study described how people and ideas both inside and outside an organisation could drive the development of new ways of working. Whereas prior studies had emphasised a sequential internal process, or the tendency for firms to blindly follow ‘fashionable’ new ideas, this paper exposed the interplay between internal and external agents to enable these innovative management practices to take shape. The paper won the journal’s best paper prize for that year and has been cited more than a thousand times.

A second project compiled and collated 50 real-world examples of management innovations over the last 150 years, ranging from scientific management, the assembly line and divisional structure to benchmarking and outsourcing. Published as a book [3.2] the collection was **praised by the Financial Times as performing “an important service in calling our attention to the concept of management innovation”.

Building on the theoretical basis laid out in [3.1], follow up work examined in more detail some key aspects of the management innovation process. One study [3.3] used survey responses from 3,668 UK firms to analyse the organisational, individual and situational factors that make a company more or less likely to import successful management ideas and practices from elsewhere. It found companies fared better when they either relied on peer organisations for inspiration, or when they actively looked further afield.

Other articles have presented the research and its implications in publications aimed at business executives and have had a direct impact on how companies operate. One piece [3.4] in the MIT Sloan Management Review used detailed cases studies to discuss the ways executives could steer the process of management innovation. A second [3.5] piece in the same journal, and a book called Reinventing Management, described in more detail below [5.1], provided a detailed blueprint for the transition from an industrial-era way of working built around bureaucratic coordination and hierarchical decision making to a digital-era model built around emergent self-organisation and collective-wisdom based decision making. A subsequent book, Fast/Forward, developed these research ideas further, as described below [5.2].

3. References to the research

[3.1] Birkinshaw, J.M., G. Hamel and M. Mol. 2008. Management Innovation. Academy of Management Review. 33(4): 825-845. https://doi.org/10.5465/AMR.2008.34421969

[3.2] Mol, M. and Birkinshaw J.M. 2008. Giant Steps in Management. FT Prentice Hall.ISBN-10 : 0273712926, ISBN-13 : 978-0273712923

[3.3] Mol, M. and Birkinshaw J.M. 2009. The sources of management innovation: When firms introduce new management practices. Journal of Business Research, 62(12): 1269-1280. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296309000125

[3.4] Birkinshaw, J.M. and M. Mol. 2006. How Management Innovation Happens. Sloan Management Review¸ 47(4). https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-management-innovation-happens/

[3.5] Birkinshaw, J.M. and J. Goddard. 2009. What is your Management Model? Sloan Management Review. 50(2): 81-90. https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/what-is-your-management-model/

4. Details of the impact

The impact of this research has been driven by wide dissemination and discussion of the findings and by presenting practical steps for firms to follow. For example, Birkinshaw synthesised the research results [3.1][3.2][3.3] into two books that provide explicit guidance to companies on how to transition from the classical ‘industrial era’ model of management to the ‘digital era’ model that is popular among today’s technology firms such as Google and Facebook. The first book Reinventing Management [5.1] defines the specific dimensions that executives should focus on when seeking to develop new ways of working, for example how coordination is achieved, how decisions are made, and how objectives are set. This book also lays out an experiment-based methodology to help executives put these innovative ideas into practice.

The second book Fast/Forward [5.2] articulates a fully-fledged model: the adhocracy, as an alternative to bureaucracy or meritocracy, and explains the elements of this adhocracy model, for example the need to structure operations around market-based opportunities.

Both sold more than 10,000 copies, and Fast/Forward won a Silver prize for business theory in the Axiom business book awards in 2018. [5.3]

The ideas developed in the academic studies and presented in the two books have significantly influenced corporations. For example, the Brazilian firm TecBan, which provides ATMs, armoured trucks and other services to banks across the country and which employs 6,500 people, has used Birkinshaw’s research to re-organise its operations [5.4]. Jaques Rosenzvaig, CEO of TecBan, says the research findings have “driven the company's cultural transformation by bringing the importance of balancing bureaucracy, meritocracy and adhocracy in our management model”. Tangible results include 80 ideas suggested by staff to make processes simpler and more productive, and revenue growth in 2019 of 12% and 88% of staff reporting high morale in the latest survey.

CI&T, a Brazilian/US consulting company also used Birkinshaw’s adhocracy framework as the blueprint for its 2017 re-organisation. Company co-founder Bruno Guicardi says they used it to create “small self-organized fluid teams organized around market opportunities.” The year after this restructuring, the company grew its revenue per employee by almost 40%, and with strong employee engagement and customer satisfaction ratings. [5.5]

Ernesto Ciorra, Chief Innovability Officer of Enel, Europe’s most valuable energy company, says Birkinshaw’s work has been “inspiring for our Group, providing a solid guideline to shape the organizational transformation through a thorough understanding of the differences between bureaucracies, meritocracies and adhocracies, and that the right organizational model should be opportunity-driven.” [5.6] Microsoft executive Ross Smith points to his 400-person team having “some of the highest engagement…and lowest attrition” across Microsoft’s software development operation, following his implementation of Birkinshaw’s ideas in Reinventing Management. [5.7]. Similar success stories have been reported by companies including Swiss (airlines) [5.10], Roche (pharmaceuticals) [5.8], and Implement (consulting) [5.9]. For example, a Roche executive cites Birkinshaw’s work – and strategies presented in Reinventing Management -- as helping them get away “from hierarchy and bureaucracy to an agile organisation.” [5.8]

The research has also had impact because it has formed the basis for an education and training programme. An innovative MOOC called “Managing the company of the future”, offered through Coursera, has been taken by more than 80,000 people since 2014, with a rating of 4.8 out of 5 from 800 raters. And the work with several companies to implement the research is included in case studies on management innovation, for example ING bank, the UK’s Government Digital Service, Bayer, and Tencent. These are offered through the London Business School and external partners including Harvard Business School and business education group The Case Centre.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] Birkinshaw J. (2012) Reinventing Management: Smarter Choices for Getting Work Done. ISBN-10:9781118375907, ISBN-13:978-1118375907

[5.2] Birkinshaw J. & Ridderstrale J. (2017) Fast/Forward: Make Your Company Fit for the Future. ISBN-10:0804799539, ISBN-13:978-0804799539

[5.3] Fast Forward wins Silver Prize in Axiom Business Book Awards 2018 http://www.axiomawards.com/80/2018-winners

[5.4] Letter from Jaques Rosenzvaig, CEO of TecBan Corporation

[5.5] Letter from Bruno Guicardi, co-founder of CI&T Corporation

[5.6] Letter from Ernesto Ciorra, Chief Innovability Officer of Enel, Italy

[5.7] Letter from Ross Smith, Development Team leader at Microsoft

[5.8] Letter from Bodo Eickhoff, Senior Vice President Sales, Roche Germany

[5.9] Letter from Henrik Horn Andersen, Head of Implement Consulting, Denmark

[5.10] Letter from JC Schraven, Swiss Air

Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Technological
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Improved access to essential medicine by under-privileged populations across eight districts in four provinces of Zambia was achieved by the launch in 2017 of a ground-breaking hi-tech inventory distribution system relying on special-purpose forecasting and inventory control algorithms and a distributed computer system with mobile devices adapted to sub-Saharan Africa’s limited infrastructure. This system was designed, developed and deployed by an international partnership including the Zambian government, the World Bank, DfID, UNDP, Professor Gallien’s research team and IBM. It replaced the old, flawed paper-based drug distribution system and for the first time allowed health officials to track the supply and demand of dozens of medicines in real-time, which allowed them to better predict and cope with both seasonal surges in demand and delays in shipping, and to secure the availability of drugs including life-saving antibiotics and malaria medicines for more patients in Zambia.

2. Underpinning research

The research addressed the difficult and challenging issue of how to distribute life-saving drugs in developing countries that lack the necessary systems and infrastructure. Working with the Zambian government and academic colleagues, Professor Gallien first used data from a supply-chain field pilot scheme that ran from April 2009 to April 2010 [3.4] along with his research on national procurement of medicines in African countries [3.3] to devise a computer model that could accurately simulate the national distribution of anti-malarial medicines based on artemether-lumefantrine (AL) [3.1]. Manufactured abroad, these drugs are imported to a national warehouse in the capital city Lusaka. Distributed to about 120 district stores, they are finally shipped to 1,500 health clinics across the country.

The model accounts for clinic orders, patient demand and the timing of deliveries. The results closely mirrored the situation on the ground. For example, while AL stocks in the clinics - from which the medicine is given to people who need it - were adequate at the end of 2009, the computer simulation correctly predicted that many would run out early in 2010 despite sufficient inventory in the Lusaka warehouse.

These results demonstrated that inventory control (formulas used to calculate specific shipment quantities of drugs to every destination on an ongoing basis) were a key reason why clinics ran out of AL. They were not adequately capturing peaks and troughs in both supply and demand, including changes caused by the seasonal nature of malaria and flooding. Existing methods also caused systematic inequalities in patient access to drugs across different geographic areas within Zambia.

Gallien used mathematical models to build better inventory control methods. Numerical experiments showed these would substantially improve patient access to drugs [3.2]. This rigorous and quantitative prediction of the substantial achievable reductions in patient-facing stock-outs provided the key motivation for the Government of Zambia and the World Bank to form an international partnership that would implement the system envisioned by Professor Gallien’s research team and the algorithm it had developed. Professor Gallien contributed extensive technical support to that partnership, and his team shared the computer code implementing the algorithms he had developed so it could be used by IBM.

3. References to the research

[3.1] 2016. Leung N-HZ, Chen A, Yadav P, Gallien J. The Impact of Inventory Management on Stock-Outs of Essential Drugs in Sub-Saharan Africa: Secondary Analysis of a Field Experiment in Zambia. PLOS ONE 11(5): e0156026. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0156026

[3.2] 2017. Gallien J, Leung Z, Yadav P. Inventory Policies for Public Pharmaceutical Distribution in Zambia: Improving Availability and Geographic Access Equity for Essential Medicines. Working paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3072362 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3072362

[3.3] 2017. Gallien J, Rashkova I, Atun R, Yadav P. National Drug Stockout Risks in Africa: Analysis of the Global Fund Disbursement Process for Procurement from 2002 to 2013. Production and Operations Management 26 (6), pp. 997-1014. DOI: 10.1111/poms.12662

[3.4] 2019. Vledder M, Friedman J, Sjöblom M, Brown T, Prashant Yadav P. Improving Supply Chain for Essential Drugs in Low-Income Countries: Results from a Large Scale Randomized Experiment in Zambia. Health Systems and Reform 5(2), pp. 158-177. DOI: 10.1080/23288604.2019.1596050

4. Details of the impact

The research described in section 2 has been used to design and introduce a new drug distribution system in Zambia called eZICS (Enhanced Zambia Inventory Control System). The goals of eZICS include improving drug availability for patients, creating real-time inventory and movement visibility through the supply-chain, digitising Zambia’s distribution system and reducing inventory management labour.

Following system design recommendations outlined in [3.1], its main components include smart phones with barcode scanners at every storage location that are connected to a centralised application and database, enhanced demand and supply lead-times forecasting, and enhanced inventory control policies ([5.4] and [5.5]).

The initiative started in 2010 and was supported by a partnership that ultimately included the Zambian Ministry of Health, the World Bank, the UK Government’s Department for International Development, UNICEF/UNDP, computer giant IBM and Professor Gallien’s research group (see [5.1] and historical timeline in [5.5]).

The collaboration involved a transfer of the technical knowledge and computer code which Professor Gallien’s group had developed for [3.1] and [3.2] to the IBM solution development team responsible for delivering the eZICS system to the Zambian Government for deployment by its central medical store (MSL).

Launched in 2016, the new tool transformed the supply of medicines. Dr. Bonface Fundafunda, Managing Director of MSL and advisor to the Zambian government at the time, says it “allowed an officer at any health facility, to process all the requirements that were needed to enable an informed supply chain decision to be made.” [5.2]

Professor’s Gallien’s studies were pivotal in the tool’s development, he adds. “The studies provided decision-makers with the basis for planning the supply of health products to different health facilities per region of Zambia, taking into account parameters such as climatic impact. For example, facilities being cut off due to annual flooding events.”

Positive impacts of the system included improved stock accuracy, wider transparent access to data on stock levels, orders and movements and better national planning and budgeting for medicines.

After training workshops attended by more than 100 employees, the system was extended in 2018, to cover the supply of 40 medicines across eight districts in four provinces of the country [5.3] and [5.4]. Staff at health facilities could use mobile devices with barcode scanners to record and transmit stock and usage details to a central inventory control system. Unlike the historic system, the eZICS was fully transparent, giving each district real-time information on drug stock levels at the clinics, and the ability to coordinate the transfer of supplies from one facility to another if required.

While the national deployment of eZICS has currently been paused due to funding issues among others, the system “continues to receive high praise in terms of simplicity, broad impact on management of supply chain for health products,” Fundafunda says. “It can be deployed across different types or levels of the health sector, from the low village health centre or health post, to a major referral health facility with equally complex pharmaceutical and health product management infrastructure.” Commenting on the impact of this work, he concludes “this approach enabled the Ministry and partners to start seeing assured healthcare service provision […]. By extension, the assured availability of health products made contribution to positive health outcomes for Zambia.”

Finally, eZICS also served as a pioneering project and proof of concept beyond Zambia as it was the first inventory distribution system with decentralised real-time inventory visibility to be deployed in the public sector of any sub-Saharan African country. Other countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo have since sent missions to Lusaka in order to benefit from MSL’s experience with eZICS.

Embedded image

Figure 1. Research and Impact Timeline

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] "Zambian Government and IBM Provide Improved Access to Life Saving Drugs. IBM Analytics and Mobile Solutions Will Ensure Medicine Availability", 22/05/2014; https://newsroom.ibm.com/2014-05-22-Zambian-Government-and-IBM-Provide-Improved-Access-to-Life-Saving-Drugs

[5.2] Dr B Fundafunda, ZMSL: Beneficiary Statement

[5.3] EZICS – Rollout Plan for Zambia. Sachin Jagtap. Internal Planning Document. 05/02/2018

[5.4] Presentation: "Enhanced Zambia Inventory Control System (eZICS)", A MoH – MSL – UNDP - World Bank Initiative", 12/02/2018

[5.5] Presentation "New eZICS Platform Options", 30/08/2017

Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

The UK changed its corporate governance code in 2018, to recommend the usual three-year period before company executives can sell shares should be extended to five years. Several firms have adopted this policy, including the Weir Group, Pets at Home and RBS.

This policy change was triggered after research described in this case study was highlighted in a November 2016 Green Paper on corporate governance from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

Quoting Edmans’ research, it said: “There is growing evidence that the usual one to three year holding period for shares provided in executive remuneration packages is too short and can incentivise short-term behaviour.” The Green Paper suggested a solution in line with the research findings: to extend the time before a CEO can cash in equity.

2. Underpinning research

The research evaluated a new policy possibility: to encourage companies and regulators to shift the way CEOs are rewarded.

Starting in 2015 Edmans carried out and published research studies that (1) offered some of the first empirical evidence that CEO behaviour was driven by short-term personal financial incentives and (2) provided a possible solution to encourage executives to run firms for the greater good.

The research programme focused on how equity (shares and share options), a common part of executive pay, alters the behaviour of CEOs. Company bosses must typically wait a set period of time before they can sell these shares. This creates a perverse incentive: to artificially drive up the share price immediately before they can sell their stock. It also gives researchers an empirical way to measure this behaviour, by studying the amount of equity that vests (becomes saleable) in a particular period. As usual in economics research, the published papers emerged several years after the studies were completed and the findings disseminated and acted upon. Early results were circulated as working papers in 2013.

The first study [published as 3.1] looked at data for more than 2000 firms between 2006 and 2010. It found that, the more equity that is vesting (becoming saleable) in a given three-month period, the more the CEO reduced investments to boost earnings and the share price in the short-term. For example, they were less likely to invest in capital equipment or research and development. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in vesting equity is associated with an annualized 0.2% decline in growth in R&D, corresponding to a cut of $2 million per year. It was published as a lead article in The Review of Financial Studies, one of the most highly-regarded journals in the world. It also won prizes including the Wharton School-WRDS Award for Best Empirical Finance Paper at the 2014 Western Finance Association (the most prestigious large finance conference in the profession) and the Investor Responsibility Research Center Institute Research Award, 2017. It later was recognised as one of the five-most cited articles out of all papers published in the 2017 volume of The Review of Financial Studies.

The second study [3.2] showed CEOs release more positive news in months in which equity is vesting, compared with the month prior and afterwards. The research checked the timing of almost 340,000 corporate press releases issued between 1994 and 2011 against when the relevant CEO was entitled to sell stock. They found bosses preparing to sell announced 20% more news in those months and cashed out shortly after announcing news. This paper was also published as a lead article in The Review of Financial Studies.

A third [3.3] showed that CEOs selling their equity was associated with companies undertaking share buybacks and announcing mergers and acquisitions (M&A) — using data on more than 6,000 companies and 9,000 CEOs between 2006 and 2015. In this case a one-standard-deviation increase in vesting equity is associated with a 1.2% increase in a firm’s likelihood of conducting a share repurchase and a 0.6% increase in a firm’s likelihood of announcing an M&A, in a given quarter.

Both strategies lead to short-term boosts in share price. Normally, share buybacks are also associated with long-term price increases. But, the research showed, when associated with CEOs selling stock, they led to the companies showing poorer financial performance in subsequent years. A one-standard-deviation increase in vesting equity is associated with an annualised 0.61% higher return over the two quarters surrounding a repurchase, but a 1.11% lower return the year after. For M&A, the negative association with long-run returns persists for longer. A one-standard-deviation increase in vesting equity is associated with an annualised 1.47% higher return over the two quarters surrounding an M&A announcement, but a 0.81%, 0.35%, 0.72%, and 0.62% lower return in the first, second, and third, and fourth subsequent years. This paper won the Investor Responsibility Research Center Institute Research Award, 2017 and the International Centre for Pension Management Research Award, 2018. It has a revise-and-resubmit at the Journal of Accounting Research, a top accounting journal.

Taken together, this research suggests a simple and effective way to encourage CEOs to run companies for more than their personal gain: encourage them to lead the firm for more years before they can cash in their equity.

Building on this idea, in 2020 Edmans published a critically acclaimed book called Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit, which was named to the Financial Times Business Books of the Year for 2020. The book shows how companies can create profit for investors and value for society, using a “pie-growing mentality” that stresses the size of the pie is not fixed. His research on CEO pay is a cornerstone of the book, showing that the structure of pay (which grows the pie) is more important than the level of pay (which merely redistributes the pie). [3.4]

3. References to the research

[3.1] Alex Edmans, Vivian W. Fang and Katharina A. Lewellen, Equity Vesting and Investment, Review of Financial Studies, Volume 30, Issue 7, July 2017, Pages 2229- 2271,  https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx018

[3.2] Alex Edmans, Luis Goncalves-Pinto, Moqi Groen-Xu and Yanbo Wang, Strategic News Releases in Equity Vesting Months, Review of Financial Studies, Volume 31, Issue 11, November 2018, Pages 4099–4141, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy070

[3.3] Edmans, Alex and Fang, Vivian W. and Huang, Allen, The Long-Term Consequences of Short-Term Incentives (last revised: June 19, 2020). European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI) - Finance Working Paper No. 527/2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3037354 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3037354.

[3.4] Alex Edmans Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit. Cambridge University Press. March 2020. ISBN: 9781108494854

4. Details of the impact

There is growing demand among the public and policy makers for action to tackle short-term thinking in the corporate world. So, the research was timely, found a receptive audience and had direct impact on policy makers, business regulations and corporate practice.

Policy makers:

Impact on policy makers came after Edmans invested substantial effort to disseminate the findings beyond academia. He wrote an FT op-ed in 2017, an HBR article in 2018, and gave a Gresham public lecture series in 2018-9 which included a lecture dedicated to executive pay. He was the guest columnist for Economia, the magazine of the Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, in 2018 and wrote a column on executive pay reform. In 2017 he wrote and published on his own website a non-technical guide on how to reform pay that has been viewed over 10,000 times. He has also spoken at many industry conferences on pay design, for example hosted by the Investment Association, the Institute of Chartered Secretaries and Administrators, and the Westminster Business Forum. The research findings received widespread media coverage in high profile publications. For example, they were featured in a Financial Times front page article and highlighted in both the Wall Street Journal and The Economist’s prestigious Buttonwood column.

As a result of this outreach effort, Edmans was invited to testify to the House of Commons Corporate Governance Inquiry in 2016. The subsequent select committee report, in April 2017, endorsed the findings of his research and called for equity to be cashed in “over a genuinely “long-term” period, normally at least five years”. [5.1]

The research findings were also highlighted in a November 2016 Green Paper on corporate governance from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) [5.2]. Quoting [3.1] it said: “There is growing evidence that the usual one to three year holding period for shares provided in executive remuneration packages is too short and can incentivise short-term behaviour.” The Green Paper suggested a solution in line with the research findings: to extend the time before a CEO can cash in equity from three to five years.

Business regulations:

Following the publication of the 2016 Green Paper, in July 2018 the UK’s Financial Reporting Council revised its Corporate Governance Code, which sets principles and standards for 2,600 firms listed on the London Stock Exchange. It said firms should lengthen the time horizon for shareholdings by executives to five years, and that they should hold shares for two years after retirement. [5.3] The Financial Reporting Council invited Edmans to speak at the launch event for the new Corporate Governance Code.

Corporate practice:

Several high-profile firms including RBS and Pets at Home have switched their practices. In 2018, the multinational engineering company The Weir Group said it would make executives wait up to seven years before they could sell stock. Writing in the company’s annual report, Clare Chapman, chair of its remuneration committee, said the reform was based on academic research that indicated “pay packages with less reliance on short-term performance conditions and requiring large shareholdings, have a positive impact on investment, innovation, long-term decision making and long-term value creation.” [5.4] As Chapman explained in the Harvard Business School case study on The Weir Group’s pay reform, “Professor Alex Edmans from London Business School … assembled the strongest possible academic evidence on pay design and the link with long-term value. … This provided a strong rationale for proposals and gave the RemCo confidence in discussions with both executives and investors that our proposals had a robust underpinning.” [5.5]

Beyond the UK, in 2016 Edmans was appointed in-house corporate governance advisor to the $910bn Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, which on average owns 1.3 per cent of every listed company in the world. In April 2017, the fund released guidelines that said CEOs should be made long-term shareholders because short-term incentives encouraged them to make poor decisions. [5.6] Explaining its decision, it said: “While many CEOs resist such temptations, academic research supports the notion that such behaviours exist.”

Yngve Slyngstad, head of the fund, told the Financial Times it would start pressing companies to force chief executives to own substantial stakes in their companies for at least five and preferably 10 years. [5.7]

Attributing change in the complex business world to specific academic findings should be done with caution. But Tom Gosling, then a senior partner at PwC and an expert in executive compensation who advises the BEIS and others on policy, says Edmans’ research has been instrumental in driving a rethink on short term incentives in corporate pay. “Prior to Professor Edmans’ work, these concerns had not been documented by rigorous evidence,” he says. This evidence was “ highly influential” in encouraging the BEIS to recommend the changes in the UK Corporate Code, he says. And it was “ directly influential” in the development of the Norwegian Fund’s pay guidelines. [5.8]

The 2020 book Grow the Pie won plaudits from reviewers. Andy Haldane, Chief Economist of the Bank of England, said “Alex Edmans’ superb book makes the case, compellingly and comprehensively, for a radical rethink of how companies operate and indeed why they exist. It is a tour de force”. Dame Helena Morrissey, former CEO of Newton Investment Management, wrote “This is a brilliant and timely book, taking the business case for responsible capitalism to a whole new level.” It has been presented at Talks at Google and is currently being translated into Chinese and Korean.

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] House of Commons Corporate Governance Inquiry in 2016; Conclusions and recommendations, 4 April, 2017; https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmbeis/702/70211.htm#_idTextAnchor108

[5.2] BEIS Green Paper: Corporate Governance Reform (November 2016)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/584013/corporate-governance-reform-green-paper.pdf

[5.3] FRC website -Advice to Directors on revised UK Corporate Governance Code, https://www.frc.org.uk/directors/corporate-governance-and-stewardship/uk-corporate-governance-code

[5.4] The Weir Group Annual Report 2017: Directors' Remuneration Report; from https://www.annualreport2017.weir/documents/Remuneration%20Report.pdf

[5.5] The Weir Group: Reforming Executive Pay by Lynn Sharp Paine and Federica Gabrieli. 7 November, 2018. Harvard Business School

https://store.hbr.org/product/the-weir-group-reforming-executive-pay-b/319047

[5.6] NBIM: Remuneration of CEO. https://www.nbim.no/contentassets/bc85c448e6b24ff5a31088883695a344/ceo-remuneration---amp-1-17---norges-bank-investment-management.pdf

[5.7] FT article: 'Norway’s oil fund wants CEO incentive plans scrapped", https://www.ft.com/content/f04af412-1ace-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f

[5.8] Tom Gosling, PwC - beneficiary letter

Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

The macroeconomic policies of several governments and central banks have been directly influenced by the research described in this case study. For example, the research findings underpinned a 2015 decision by the Italian government to abolish property tax on main dwellings.

The work and its findings also helped guide European Central Bank policy to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels, because the research shows how this leads to a significant increase in income across society and a significant increase in consumption for households with high mortgage debt payments.

“These scientific findings have been influential not only in the public debate, but also in in-house policy deliberations on the costs and benefits of the low interest rates policy,” says Oreste Tristani, a senior adviser with the ECB.

2. Underpinning research

When politicians want to stimulate a sluggish economy, or cool an overheating economy, they can change taxes, interest rates and government spending. But the true impacts of these macroeconomic policies on consumer spending, borrowing and saving have been argued over for decades.

This research revealed an important step in this economic chain. In studies of major economies across the world, Paolo Surico showed that households with large mortgages are the most influenced by large-scale policy changes.

Andrew Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, says this research is: “Vital for monetary policymakers to judge properly the appropriate level of interest rates for the economy, to understand fully the ultimate effects of changes in monetary policy and to forecast accurately the evolution of the economy”. [5.1]

As usual in economics research, the published papers emerged several years after the studies were completed and the findings disseminated and acted upon. Early results were circulated as working papers between 2014 and 2018.

In one study (for which the final paper was published in 2018) he used household survey data for the US and UK to show that having a mortgage was the most significant factor in how families choose to spend more or less after a change in interest rates. Households with mortgage debt increased spending by up to 1.2%. People who owned their homes outright did not adjust their expenditure at all. Renters do change their spending but by less than those with a mortgage. [3.1] The research also showed that, when interest rates are lowered, income rises significantly for all households, by about 1%-1.2% over the next three years.

A related study found the same pattern of spending changes after income tax cuts in the UK. This research examined data on spending collected from 7,000 households each year from 1978 to 2009 as part of the government’s Living Costs and Food Survey. The consumption of those with a mortgage rose quicker and further -- up to 2% three years after a cut in the basic rate of income tax-- than other families. [3.2]

Another study examined the impact of a sudden and temporary hike in property taxes in Italy in 2011 Called the Imposta Municipale Unica, it affected 25.8 million tax-payers (around 70% of households) with an average contribution per tax-paying household around €357 on the main dwelling and about €905 on other residential properties. Surico’s study showed the introduction of the property taxes on the main dwelling generated only a modest increase in tax revenues, but that it was associated with a very significant contraction in consumption, equivalent to about 0.11% of GDP in 2012. The largest drop in spending was among households with mortgage debt, a group particularly affected by the financial crisis. [3.3]

A fourth research project used a set of newly-added questions in the 2011–2014 Bank of England/NMG Consulting Survey to investigate household behaviour after a change in income. Up to 6,000 households were asked questions on income, influences on spending and balance sheet and debt positions. This information allowed the researchers to examine differences between the traits of households that received different types of income shocks. It found that British households tend to change their consumption by significantly more in reaction to temporary and unanticipated falls in income than to rises of the same size. Specifically, the “marginal propensity to consume” of households after a negative income shock is estimated to change by between 0.46 and 0.68, but the range is only 0.07 to 0.17 following a positive income shock. Again, having a mortgage – and so relatively constrained access to disposable income - helped to explain this spending asymmetry. In other words, taxing those with large but illiquid assets could cause more of a fall in spending than previously expected. [3.4]

3. References to the research

[3.1] James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira, Paolo Surico. (2020). Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism. The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 87, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 102–129, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy074

[3.2] James S Cloyne and Paolo Surico. (2017). Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 84, Issue 1, January, Pages 45–81, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw021

[3.3] Paolo Surico and Riccardo Trezzi. (2019). Consumer Spending and Property Taxes, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 17, Issue 2, Pages 606 - 649, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy008

[3.4] Philip Bunn, Jeanne Le Roux, Kate Reinold and Paolo Surico. (2018). The Consumption Response to Positive and Negative Income Shocks, Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 96, Pages 1-15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.007

4. Details of the impact

An important social benefit and impact of this research is to reveal a major factor that determines the effectiveness of commonly used monetary and fiscal policy interventions: the role of household mortgage debt in the transmission mechanism. This is vital information for policy makers and others because it shows that fiscal measures that affect households with a mortgage could have a more powerful effect on consumer spending than expected. In contrast, conventional wisdom said the aggregate effects of macroeconomic policies were largely driven by households with lower income.

The results have had direct impact in three ways: on policy makers, on policy and on efforts to rebuild public trust in financial systems.

Policy makers:

Policy makers in governments and central banks around the world have used both the results and the analytical techniques developed in the research to make fiscal interventions more effective. For example, the Bank of England now includes Surico’s findings on transmission of monetary policy to households in its own analyses.

Andrew Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, says Surico’s work is “state-of-the-art and gradually being embedded into the day-to-day analysis that institutions like the Bank of England use.” [5.1]

The European Central Bank is also using Surico’s research. The ECB is now applying the mechanisms he developed to analyse data from the Euro area economy. The initial results appear to be “broadly similar’ says Oreste Tristani, a senior adviser with the ECB, which will allow the ECB to incorporate the mechanisms and results in its work. [5.2]

Policy:

Results from the research have helped to guide ECB policy on keeping interest rates at ultra-low levels. Surico’s research [3.1] shows how low interest rates lead to a significant increase in income across society. “These scientific findings have been influential not only in the public debate, but also in in-house policy deliberations on the costs and benefits of the low interest rates policy,” Tristani says. [5.2]

The research also helped to set a specific policy in Italy: the scrapping of a property tax in 2015. “The results in Paolo’s analysis could not have been more timely from our perspective, as the discussion among members of the government, parliament and their staff had been merely political until then,” says Tommaso Nannicini, a senator of the Italian Parliament and former Chief Economic Adviser and Undersecretary of State to the Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. [5.3]

The research was studied by the Prime Minister’s economic advisers and discussed in parliamentary committees. It provided new impetus to the idea of abolishing the property tax on the main dwelling, and a precise quantification of the economic benefits of such a policy. When Renzi’s government abolished the tax, Surico’s research was quoted in parliamentary reports and official documents. “This represents a great example of evidence-based policymaking and productive interplay between academic research and political discussion,” Nannicini says. [5.3]

Rebuilding public trust:

In a different type of impact, the research also gives a solid evidence base to efforts by the Bank of England and other experts to rebuild public trust in financial institutions. One way they are doing this is to explain how different agents in the economy – by age, wealth, income, residence etc – are personally affected by decisions and policies, and therefore how macroeconomic policies affect inequality and how inequality shapes macroeconomic policies. Surico’s research “speaks directly to this,” Haldane says. “It provides an academic perspective for central banks to lean on when setting their strategy for engaging with citizens.” [5.1]

In 2015, The Economist magazine - in its popular section on explaining economic research by academics and economists to the general public - featured Surico’s work [3.2] to support the notion that tax relief for households with mortgage debt can be an effective policy tool to stimulate a depressed economy. [5.4]

In 2015, the daily Italian newspapers with large national circulation, Il sole 24 ore, Il Corriere and Il Giornale, presented the results of Surico’s research in [3.3] as part of the social and policy discussion on the desirability of a property tax on the main dwelling. [5.5] and [5.6, 5.7]

In 2016-2018, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has used extensive references to Surico’s work [3.1] and [3.2] to explain to the general public and members of Parliament the effectiveness of monetary policy and its transmission to consumption via income effects. This has been used in both formal communications by the Bank of England Deputy Governor to Parliament and in speeches of MPC members to the general public. [5.8, 5.9]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] Bank of England - Beneficiary Statement

[5.2] ECB - Beneficiary Statement

[5.3] Italian Govt Beneficiary – Statement

[5.4] The Economist, Finance and Economics, "Outlaw economics", 11/04/2015, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2015/04/11/outlaw-economics

[5.5] Il Sole 24 Ore Italia, "Imposta sulla prima casa, ecco come risolvere il rebus delle coperture stimolando l'economia ", 21/07/2015; https://st.ilsole24ore.com/art/notizie/2015-07-21/imposta-prima-casa-ecco-come-risolvere-rebus-coperture-stimolando-economia-091921.shtml?uuid=AC0TZwU&refresh_ce=1

[5.6] Il Giornale.it, Economia, "Ecco la prova che la crisi è colpa dell'Imu", 04/07/2015, (from the front page of the hard copy edition) https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica/ecco-prova-che-crisi-colpa-dellimu-1148305.html

[5.7] Corriere Della Sera, Economia, "Proposta per alleggerire le famiglie con il mutuo", 27/07/2015, https://www.corriere.it/economia/15_luglio_27/proposta-alleggerire-b202c8c4-343e-11e5-b933-63839669b549.shtml

[5.8] BoE speech given by Dr Gertjan Vlieghe, External MPC member, Bank of England, "Debt, Demographics and the Distribution of Income: New challenges for monetary policy", 18/01/2016; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2016/debt-demographics-and-the-distribution-of-income-new-challenges.pdf?la=en&hash=EEF6A1AA1535B8AABCCC527EFE7125D842034BAF .

[5.9] BoE speech given by Silvana Tenreyro, External MPC member, Bank of England, "Models in macroeconomics", 04/06/2018; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2018/models-in-macroeconomics-speech-by-silvana-tenreyro.pdf?la=en&hash=C1E64D11B355A380F2819D7CB1F631F03D4A23A1

Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
Yes

1. Summary of the impact

Officials and policy makers around the world have used the research described in this case study to derive more accurate real-time estimates of national GDP, often months before official figures are available. These help firms and consumers make decisions about spending and investment.

I cannot value enough how useful the London Business School model has been for us,” says

Dr Till Strohsal, an economist with the German government’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy.

Called Nowcasting, the technique has also been used at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York since 2016.

2. Underpinning research

Quarterly GDP figures – critical to track economic activity and to plan investment decisions – usually come with a significant time lag, which means they are out-of-date by the time they are published. Reichlin and her co-authors have developed and applied a formal statistical framework that produces reliable ‘real-time’ projections of GDP.

The process is called nowcasting and is based on a model that reads data as it is produced, on everything from unemployment statistics to consumer surveys.

The nowcast model - described in [3.1] [3.2] [3.6] - uses all of these data, plus any other potentially relevant information, to extract a signal about the state of the economy.

The estimation procedure exploits the strong co-movement of these data series, which means their behaviour can be captured by few factors.

In this way, the model copes with the ‘curse of dimensionality’ (large numbers of correlated series) because it depends on a more limited number of representative parameters. The model assigns weights to the various data sources and optimally exploits the dynamic relationships among them. The nowcast can be interpreted as that component of GDP growth which is highly correlated with all of the input data series. It disregards idiosyncratic information such as the weather, but it captures common signals given by all macroeconomic data releases including surveys.

More specifically, nowcasting uses a factor model written in the state form, with a Kalman filter used to solve problems of missing data due to the non-synchronicity of data release and other problems. The research shows convergence properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the factors and the Kalman filter; it also demonstrates robustness to model misspecification. It explains why the techniques work for the “big data” empirical situation faced by the nowcaster.

This research is a development of ideas in [3.3], as well as other work by Reichlin’s team.

The nowcasting method applies comprehensive technical solutions to address issues that plague other models of GDP, including varying publication lags (“jagged edged” data), mixed-frequency data, and missing input data. As a result, the model computes a joint forecast of predictors and the target series and, at each release, the calculation of the surprise component of the published data release (this is the “news”). The revision of the now-cast of quarterly GDP growth can then be described as the product of the weight of each series (estimated using historical data) and the news for each release. This gives a transparent means to read and exploit the flow of data releases.

The research described here and Reichlin’s contributions are summarised in two survey papers [3.4] [3.5]. The surveys are an essential component of the research programme because they promote the work to stakeholders and end-users, and so set up subsequent impact of the research.

3. References to the research

[3.1] Doz, Giannone, and Reichlin. A quasi-maximum likelihood approach for large, approximate dynamic factor models. Review of Economics and Statistics 94(4), Nov. 2012, pp. 1014–1024.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00225

[3.2] Doz, Giannone, and Reichlin. A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering. Journal of Econometrics 164(1), Sep. 2011, pp. 188–205.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.02.012

[3.3] Forni, Giannone, Lippi, and Reichlin. Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross sections. Econometric Theory 25(5), Oct. 2009, pp. 1319–1347.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S026646660809052X

[3.4] Banbura, Giannone, Modugno, and Reichlin. Nowcasting and the real time data flow. Handbook of Econometrics of Forecasting, v. 2A, ed. by Elliott and Timmermann. Elsevier (2013). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53683-9.00004-9

[3.5] Banbura, Giannone, and Reichlin. Nowcasting. Ch. 7 of Oxford Handbook of Economic Fore- casting, ed. by Clements and Hendry. Oxford University Press (2011).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195398649.013.0008

[3.6] Giannone, Reichlin, and Small, Nowcasting: The real time informational content of macroeconomic data. Journal of Monetary Economics 55 (4), 665–676 (2008).DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.05.010

4. Details of the impact

Through the commercial firm Nowcasting Economics Limited, the research findings have been applied widely in the world of business and economics. Since 2014 several new financial institutions have used the technique. Details are commercially sensitive, but other clients include the central banks of Canada, Belgium and Slovenia. Other state agencies include the German Ministry of Economics and Energy. Many other institutions apply the method on a routine basis. For example, the influential Federal Reserve Bank of New York has used it since April 2016 to produce early estimates of GDP growth for the US economy. [5.1]

It estimates GDP growth for the current and subsequent quarter, based on data released over the course of each week, and publishes them every Friday at 11:15 a.m. on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's public website. They explicitly state their efforts “build on” the work of Reichlin and her colleagues. [5.1]

Another significant application of the research is in Germany. Starting in January 2020, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy uses the nowcasting technique to produce and publish real-time estimates of GDP, as a guide to the performance of the country’s economy. The Nowcasting Economics Limited team developed the relevant model in collaboration with Dr Till Strohsal, an economist with the ministry, and jointly published the results with him as a working paper in 2020. [5.2]

Dr Strohsal says: “ I cannot value enough how useful the London Business School model has been for us. The research has definitely had a big impact here.” [5.3]

Without nowcasting, GDP figures are typically only available 30-45 days after the close of a quarter. “Now we have a reliable forecast every day and that’s very useful for us to understand the direction of the economy and to fulfil our institutional duties.”

It helps the ministry comment on the state of the country’s economic performance to the media and to senior figures in government, Strohsal says. And the ministry also includes nowcast GDP estimates in its official monthly bulletins. “This really was the missing piece of the methodologies we needed,” he adds.

There are two key end-users of this information. The first is the community of economic analysts and forecasters in Germany and elsewhere. The second is the general public and business communities, who need reliable information on the state of the economy to plan and make decisions. It’s impossible to track how this information is used, Strohsal says. “But we hope and expect that it will influence firms and consumers. We know from macroeconomic theory that reliable estimates of economic growth are essential to guide spending and future investment.”

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] Bok, Brandyn and Caratelli, Daniele and Giannone, Domenico and Sbordone, Argia M. and Tambalotti, Andrea, Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data (2017-11-01). FRB of NY Staff Report No. 830. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3075844

[5.2] DP14323 Nowcasting German GDP. CEPR Working Paper. January 2020 https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14323

[5.3] Testimony from Dr Till Strohsal, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Berlin

Submitting institution
London Business School
Unit of assessment
17 - Business and Management Studies
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Some 270 small businesses in South Africa increased sales by almost two-thirds, as a direct impact of the research, which was conducted in collaboration with the World Bank and an NGO. As a result, on average each company was able to take on a new member of staff.

In significant indirect impact based on the research results, the World Bank included marketing as a major new aspect in a $200m investment programme to support thousands of small firms and boost employment prospects in Nigeria, and in a similar $50m programme that focuses on 200 tech start-ups in Peru. The bank and the Mexican government have also applied the research in a joint programme to support 1500 entrepreneurs.

2. Underpinning research

The research tested a basic assumption across the business world: that formal training and education has beneficial effects and makes a positive difference among small businesses in developing countries. Not everyone agrees. Previous research – by academics as well as researchers at the World Bank - has suggested that the effect of business skills training on these businesses might be negligible or even negative. But, until now, there has been little reliable evidence to support either side of the argument.

Using a gold standard of academic enquiry – a randomised controlled trial – this project was able to show conclusively that business training does indeed boost the financial performance of small companies in an emerging market.

The researchers developed, in collaboration with an NGO partner and funding from London Business School and the World Bank, a business skills training programme that is customised to the needs of small businesses in emerging markets. As Tom Parry, then CEO of the NGO partner – Business Bridge South Africa – notes in a CNBC TV interview [5.1], the researchers “helped us refine our model, include as many innovations as we could, and make sure we learned from previous World Bank Studies and previous research projects. [The researchers] then got other major partners on board, received funding from the World Bank, and helped us to scale on a global scale.”

The researchers randomly assigned training to owners of hundreds of small businesses in South Africa. Some 266 businesses were given several hours of training a week for two months that focused on finance skills, such as accounting and balance sheets. Another 270 businesses received the same amount of time on a training course that instead focused on marketing skills, such as promotion and customer relations. A third group of 316 businesses, the control arm, did not receive any initial training. (They did however receive it some 18-months later, once the trial had finished.)

Company sales, profits and staff levels were recorded and compared at the start of the trial and then six and twelve months after the end of the training (i.e., in 2013). Compared with the control group, the companies in the finance-training group saw profits increase by 41%. And those in the marketing-training group saw profits rise by 61%.

The study reported an important difference in the paths taken by these firms to higher profits, and one which reflects the training they received. The firms in the finance group made more money because they cut costs and increased efficiency. But those who received the marketing training made more because they grew their business. They typically increased sales by 64% and hired an extra employee each.

Given that firms in the control group hire on average two employees, the study showed that the marketing training represents a 57% increase in employment. In deprived contexts such as South African townships (where the unemployment rate hovers around 50% and micro-businesses are the most common form of business), this increase in hiring implies significant numbers of job opportunities that would not otherwise have existed.

David McKenzie, Lead Economist in the Development Research Group at the World Bank, summarises the direct impact of the study thus [5.3]; “This is the strongest set of results that I have seen of any attempt to do business training in a developing country, and I think this is a fantastic study.”

3. References to the research

[3.1] Anderson S, Chandy R & Zia B. Pathways to Profits: The Impact of Marketing vs. Finance Skills on Business Performance. Management Science 64 (12) p5559-5583 (2018)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2920[3.2] Anderson S, Chandy R & Zia B. Pathways to Profits: Identifying Separate Channels of Small Firm Growth through Business Training. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper; No. 7774. (2016) https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24855

[3.3] Anderson S, Chandy R & Zia B. Pathways to Profits: Can Entrepreneurship Training Really Work for Small Businesses? VoxDev (2019) https://voxdev.org/topic/firms-trade/pathways-profits-can-entrepreneurship-training-really-work-small-businesses

[3.4] Anderson S, Chandy R & Zia B. The Impact of Marketing and Finance Training on Firm Performance in South Africa. Innovations in Poverty Action (2016) https://www.poverty-action.org/study/impact-marketing-and-finance-training-firm-performance-south-africa

[3.5] Anderson S, Chandy R & Zia B. Managerial Capital and Business Transformation in Low-Income Countries, Centre for Economic Policy and Research, https://pedl.cepr.org/content/managerial-capital-and-business-transformation-low-income-countries-0

4. Details of the impact

The intervention described in the research led to a direct impact - documented in [3.1] and described for practitioner and policy audiences in [3.2-3.5] - on the hundreds of firms that were part of the study, and on the individuals who were given jobs by those in the marketing training group. For example, Dawn Warden, a participant who runs a clothes shop, says that sales increased. [5.2] Another, entrepreneur Mvikeli Biyana, says: “I’ve got more contracts and I employ more people”. [5.2] Wafaa Abdurahman, who worked as a trainer for the project, says: “It created a different vibe, a different understanding, a different mindset”. [5.2]

Additionally, the research had indirect impact through the actions of entities such as the World Bank, which invest large sums in business skills training in emerging markets. Given the importance of the research findings [3.1], they were disseminated widely in World Bank and policy-maker oriented outlets [3.2-3.5], as well as in the London Business School Review [5.8] even while the core academic paper was still undergoing peer review. Results that show how marketing skills increase sales and so allow businesses to take on more staff have directly influenced the design of multi-million dollar programmes run by the World Bank to boost the economic and employment contributions of hundreds of small and start-up firms in Nigeria and Peru. Specifically, both programmes have been designed to offer access to marketing expertise, alongside the more traditional finance skills.

Bilal Zia, a senior economist at the World Bank – and a co-author on [3.1] -- notes: “The implications of this research are compelling. The World Bank alone spends over $1 billion dollars per year on business training programs. Yet the impact of these programs has been unclear. What this paper shows is not just that the impact is “there”; it also shows the mechanism of the impact: of “how” the impact happens. The insights from this study have already been applied to other World Bank projects, for example in Nigeria, where business training programs have been moulded based on the insights from this study." [5.4]

The Nigeria program ran from 2015-2018, backed by an initial $200m World Bank loan. It offered support to thousands of small and medium sized enterprises across the country, to help them expand and reach new markets. For the first time in such a project, this programme paid for marketing professionals to be made available to the firms: some two-thirds of the companies accepted the marketing help. The full results of the programme, including boosts to sales and employment, are still being processed. But early findings confirm that the introduction of the marketing skills have been beneficial and have significantly improved aspects including the use of best practice.

The Peru project started in 2020 and is funded with $50m from the World Bank. It focuses on growing some 200 innovative tech start-up firms. Again, based on the results of the academic study [3.1], the programme has been designed to make marketing support a major component.

Leo Lacovone, a lead economist with the World Bank says the results of the academic study [3.1] were a game changer. He says: “These significant financial programmes would not have been designed in this way to include marketing skills if it wasn’t for the results of the South Africa study.” Previous programmes focused on the financial aspects of running a business, such as accounting, he says. “Marketing aspects were a bit of a blind spot because there was no evidence that they had any benefit. Now there is. That makes a fundamental difference to the way we design and implement these programmes.” He expects the findings and the value of marketing skills on sales and employment will influence more programmes in the future, both those run by the World Bank and by national governments. [5.9]

The World Bank has also worked with the government of Mexico from 2016 to 2019 to design and run an exercise to improve the performance of 1,500 entrepreneurs, mostly in the service industries such as restaurant and shop owners, which offer significant opportunities to create new jobs. Marketing skills were a large component, again because the results of the study [3.1] showed their impact on sales and employment.

The UK charity Grow Movement used the results of the study to help design a $500,000 project to offer remote business consulting support to some 500 small firms in Uganda. The scheme, which used volunteers to deliver marketing and other advice over the telephone, raised sales by almost a third (28%) to an average $352 a month. [5.6]

Chris Coghlan, co-founder of the charity, said: “Because of the positive results of the work in South Africa we deliberately designed some of the Uganda projects to have a marketing focus. And I think it had a real impact in helping to grow the sales of these companies. The project was covered in the Economist and has sparked interest among other organisations who may now start remote coaching projects in developing countries.” [5.5]

The research [3.1] won the 2016 Gary L. Lilien ISMS-MSI Practice Prize, given every two years to a research project that represents the “most outstanding implementation of marketing science concepts and methods”. The award recognizes work that “had significant, verifiable and, preferably quantitative impact on the performance of the client organization.” Practice Prize Committee Chair John Roberts, Professor of Marketing at the University of New South Wales noted: “This work—as well as that of the other finalists for the award--represents the finest of what marketing scientists have to offer practitioners. Each finalist used targeted marketing science modeling approaches to help the client organization improve its profits and performance substantially.” [5.7]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

[5.1] Tom Parry, CEO, Business Bridge - appearance on "Beyond Markets" (Launched in South Africa in 2010); Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lsxHjBBVyo&feature=youtu.be

[5.2] Client Videos:

Dawn Warden, Gaboozie Trades, and Egbert Wessels, Business Bridge Trainer: https://youtu.be/4hOdpRku-Uc

Mvikeli Biyana, Mvikeli Investment, and Karabo Makgoane, Business Bridge Trainer: https://youtu.be/bzKrVXd8_dI

Mahmood Chikte, Solar Joy, and Wafaa Abdurahman, Business Bridge Trainer: https://youtu.be/SsaqORshWdo

[5.3] Video statements by Dr David McKenzie, Lead Economist, The World Bank: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5dWtaXwJIA&feature=youtu.be

and by Dr Bilal Zia, Senior Economist, The World Bank: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnHJ_zjyHos&feature=youtu.be

[5.4] Dr Bilal Zia, The World Bank – Beneficiary Statement

[5.5] Chris Coghlan, Grow Movement – Beneficiary statement

[5.6] Grow Movement news feature, "UK AID funded study by top global business schools finds coaching African micro-entrepreneurs over mobile phone is effective in relieving poverty", 05/10/2019; https://www.growmovement.org/uk-aid-funded-study-by-top-global-business-schools-finds-coaching-african-micro-entrepreneurs-over-mobile-phone-is-effective-in-relieving-poverty/

[5.7] 2015 INFORMS award to Stephen Anderson-Macdonald, 2015 Gary L. Lilien ISMS-MSI Practice Prize: Winner(s)

Winning material: “The Impact of Marketing Skills on Business Growth, Prosperity, and Survival: Insights from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Collaboration with the World Bank.”; https://www.informs.org/Recognizing-Excellence/Award-Recipients/Stephen-Anderson-Macdonald

[5.8] Chandy R, Anderson S, Zia B. Surviving and Thriving: Can Innovation Among Micro-Entrepreneurs in South Africa Teach Global Corporations a Lesson? (2016) London Business School Review; https://www.london.edu/think/diie-educating-the-worlds-microentrepreneurs.

[5.9] Leonardo Iacovone, Lead Economist, Finance, Competitiveness & Innovation Global Practice, the World Bank: from conversation with David Adam, Impact Case Consultant; 18/01/2020

Showing impact case studies 1 to 8 of 8

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