Impact case study database

Policies on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsSince 2014, Page’s research [ R1, R2, R5] led to the first methodologies for calculating specific GHG emissions factors for peat oxidation and fire for degraded tropical peatlands [ E1a-d]. The Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry report (2015) [ E1a] extensively implemented Page’s methodologies to support the Government of Indonesia and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) initiative to reduce GHG emissions under REDD+ [ E1c]. The Indonesian government incorporated Page’s methodologies into two schemes for international emissions projection estimates (2015): INCAS [ E1a] and UNFCCC [ E1b] – now the standard methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from forests and peatlands in Indonesia. Page’s peatland emissions research was used in the 2017 UNEP Emissions Gap Report, providing estimates to reduce global GHG emissions by 2030 [ E1d].

Policies on biofuels derived from palm oil Page’s research on carbon emissions from Indonesian peat fires [ R1] contributed to the European Parliament’s 2017 vote to ban biofuels made from vegetable oils, including palm oil, by 2020 [ E2a]. The Rainforest Foundation, Norway, drew upon Page’s findings on GHG emissions from peat oxidation and fire [ R3, R4], leading to a total ban on the public procurement and use of palm oil-based biofuel in Norway (June 2017)—the first country ban by a public entity on palm oil biofuel use [ E2b,c,d]. Page’s data [ R4] drove the European Parliament Environment Committee (ENVI) to phase out biodiesel from vegetable oils by 2030, with accelerated phasing-out of palm oil biofuel use in Europe by 2021 [ E2e].

Global, sustainable peatland and forest management policies

Transforming paper production practice in IndonesiaPage co-developed the Independent Peatland Expert Working Group (IPEWG) to inform sustainable forest and peatland management by APRIL, one of Indonesia’s largest pulpwood plantation industries [ E3a-h]. Page is an IPEWG member, and further co-developed APRIL’s Peatland Roadmap (2017) [ E3a]. Page’s research [ R1 – R5] provided strategic evidence for responsible peatland operations, including supporting APRIL’s appointment of a peatland Science Team.With inputs from Page and IPEWG, the Science Team undertook research that developed APRIL’s knowledge in three critical peatland science areas: the net flux of greenhouse gases, water-table management and subsidence. This included establishing four eddy covariance flux towers (2017–2020), which measure the land-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide and methane, and provide critical data on their exchange in natural, plantation and mixed-use peatland (2019) [ E3b]. In 2019, IPEWG and the Science Team evaluated the effect of APRIL’s plantation management on peat subsidence, which provided guidance to APRIL on best peatland management and water table regulation practices [ E3c].

Policies to manage peatland drainagePage et al’s research connecting peatland drainage to subsidence, flooding, GHG emissions, and fire risk [ R1, R2, R4, R5] provided substantial evidence for three Wetlands International (WI) peatland management recommendations, supporting the Indonesian government’s 2016 commitment to restore 2 million ha of degraded peatland [ E4a]. Page’s findings on peatland subsidence rates [ R5] and SE Asia’s peat forest losses [ R2] informed WI 2015 (Malaysia) flooding projections and recommendations for sustainable peatland development [ E4a]. Page’s subsidence data [ R5] informed WI 2015 (Indonesia) projections that “within 25, 50 and 100 years, 71%, 83% and 98% of the existing plantation area [will] experience . . . flooding” without immediate action [ E4b]. WI 2016 also used these data [ R5] to identify Indonesia’s existing peatland management system as “unsustainable and irresponsible”, and to demand the phasing out of drainage in most of Indonesia’s peatlands. [ E4c].

Sustainable palm oilPage’s research [ R2, R4, R5] and advisory role with the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) contributed to its Best Management Practice (2016) [ E5a] and Drainability Assessment Guidance (2019) [ E5b], to reduce GHG emissions from oil palm plantations on peatland and mitigate risks of flooding from subsidence.

Congo Basin and global peatland protectionAs Co-I of a GBP3.1M NERC-funded research project [ R6, G3], Page and team discovered a vast area of tropical peatland in the Congo Basin (2018). This peatland occupies 145,500 km²—an area slightly larger than England—and stores 30 billion tonnes of carbon: equivalent to three years’ worth of global GHG emissions. These findings spurred the Brazzaville Agreement (2018) [ E6a] to conserve Congolese peatlands, signed by the governments of Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru, and Indonesia, under the auspices of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [ E6a]. It further motivated the 2018 establishment of the UNEP Global Peatlands Initiative, a cooperation of 28 organisations, including Page/University of Leicester, to promote best practices in peatland management [ E6b-c] .

UK environment and emission policiesPage’s Defra-funded research (2012-2016) on GHG emissions from peatland under intensive agricultural management in eastern England [ G4] informed the recommendation of the UK Parliament Environmental Audit Committee’s report on Soil Health (2016) that the Government should take tougher action to tackle land use practices that degrade peat [ E7a]. The UK government’s reporting to UNFCCC (published by BEIS) used Page’s data [ G4] as evidence for Tier 2 reporting on GHG emissions from agricultural lowland peatlands [ E7b].

Legacy mineral exploration techniques and extraction methods require significant resource, time, and cost. Dr David Holwell’s research methodologies [ R1- R7] informed new exploration strategies and mining procedures in Greenland and Zambia, directly and indirectly contributing GVA GBP408,804,900 to four mining and exploration companies in the UK, Greenland, and Africa; and to local economies in Zambia through investment and c. 500 jobs [ E1-E5].

Transforming business strategies worth GBP3,300,000 in GreenlandHolwell’s research methodologies [ R1-R5, R7] changed exploration and mining strategies for two companies: Longland Resources (Longland – now Conico), Greenland. Holwell’s accurate geological predictive geological capability contributed to GBP3,300,000 in economic growth for both companies through leveraged investment, accelerated productivity lead-time through strategic, surface-level exploration, and company mergers [ E1, E2].

The Mineral Systems Approach (MSA) methodology increased the value of the Ryberg exploration project, Greenland, by GBP1,750,000 following their purchase by ASX-listed Conico [ E2]. Holwell’s MSA research in Greenland (2008-2014) [ R1] identified indicators of mineral resources, and pinpointed likely targets within a vast region. Longland Founder/Director and now Conico CEO (TAJ) confirmed that Holwell’s research “ highlighted significant potential for the discovery of a large nickel, copper and palladium deposit, which provided the basis for the decision… to set up the company [and] increase the licence area from 299km² to 3,889km²” [ E1]. Furthermore, the discovery of gold reported in [ R2] is of particular interest to Conico, who are currently exploring the site [ E1].

Holwell’s methodology [ R1] equipped Longland with the research evidence and strategic viability required to raise GBP1,580,000 investment [ E1] for exploration for both copper-palladium, and gold deposits in summer 2020. Longland applied Holwell’s strategic, targeting methods [ R1] to apply electromagnetic geophysical surveys, in order to generate focused targets to reduce drilling time and costs [ E1].

Howell’s “ significant research contributions . . . resulted in [Longland’s] credibility to gain the interest of an acquirer” – CEO Conico [ E1]. In October 2020, Australian ASX-listed company, Conico, merged with Longland, which increased trading share prices by 11.5% by 4 November 2020 [ E2]. This acquisition was “The most significant and tangible measure of the impact [from Holwell’s] research, with the result that Longland has increased its value by GBP1,750,000” [ E1].

Transforming mining and employment in Zambia worth c. USD540,000,000

(c. GBP405,504,900 21 December 2020)

Resurrecting the Munali Nickel MineThe Munali Nickel Mine in Southern Province, Zambia (Munali) was placed on care and maintenance in 2011 by then-operator Albidon, in part due to “ using the wrong geological model, hence the wrong mining method . . . leading to uneconomic operations” [ E5]. The mine was taken over by Consolidated Nickel Mines (CNM), who approached Holwell (2015-present) to help develop their geological and metallurgic understanding [ R2], leading to the Munali Mine Mineralisation Model (MMMM) [ E3]. Holwell’s MMMM and strategic protocols for understanding ore nature and continuity; and ore zone predictability [ R3, R4] improved Munali’s exploration indicators and their core logging, data gathering, mineralisation classification protocol [ E3]. Munali specifically used Howell’s magnetite research [ R7] as an exploration indicator to define their exploration drill targets, and to contribute to better understanding of an orebody’s predictable ‘shoots’ of nickel, copper, cobalt and platinum group elements [ R3, R4, E3]. The former CNM CEO (2013-2020) confirmed that, by applying strategies informed by Holwell's research [ R2- R4], CNM were able to extend the viability of the mine to target Munali’s resources. He stated: “By changing understanding in this way, CNM have been able to redesign the mining operations and brought the mine back into production in 2019”, and exports of nickel and platinum concentrates began in May 2020. [ E4]. He further stated: “With the assistance of Dr Holwell’s research, Munali was able to begin producing nickel and platinum concentrates in April 2020, producing an annual 3,600 [tonnes] rising to 4,800 tonnes per annum of nickel in concentrate, valued, depending on nickel price, [at] USD40,000,000 – 60,000,000 per annum” (04-2020, c. GBP37,546,750 12-2020) [ E4, E5].

Munali’s Superintendent of Geological Services stated that Holwell’s research was “of phenomenal importance to our understanding of the Geology of Munali Mine” [ E3]. Munali is now able to give “much needed assurance to investors” by providing “improved mining services, consistent feed to the processing plant [and] better understanding of the variability of the resource model” [ E3]. “Dr Holwell’s work [also potentially] increased the Life of Mine (LOM) of about 20 to 30 percent” [ E3]. The former CNM CEO further stated: “The increased capacity from Holwell’s research directly impacted on jobs at Munali Mine, which now employs more than 400 people with a 99% Zambian workforce” [ E4, E5].

Transformed processing strategies for significant capital savings at KitumbaHolwell’s research [ R6]—which he has applied since 2018 at The Kitumba Copper Project, Kitumba, Zambia, and in partnership with CMI and ZEISS—has changed CMI’s understanding of ore processing techniques, leading to significant economic benefits for CMI [ E4]. This research highlighted a critical misidentification in the mineralogy from previous work on the deposit. The results of the research enabled CMI to design and optimise their mineral processing strategy for the ores to minimise mining costs and maximise revenue from the copper resource. By confirming this feasibility, Holwell’s research reinforced CMI’s plans to develop the project, and changed CMI’s proposed processing technique. CMI’s CEO stated that Holwell’s research showed that “the ore will respond much more favourably to the extraction technique (acid leaching) than previously thought. This change in practice equates to a reduction in the capital costs required to develop the project from c. USD450million to a more financeable USD220million”, saving the company 51% in capital costs worth USD230M (12-2020) [ E4].

Economic impact in a deprived region of Zambia

CMI’s CEO stated: “The increased capacity and production that Holwell’s research enabled at both Munali and Kitumba [ R1- R7] has brought more than USD60million in investment into Zambia, with a further USD220million planned in 2021 from the UK and China” (12-2020) [ E4]. As of December 2020, CMI has brought both direct and indirect employment for c.500 people in the economically deprived Southern and Central provinces region of Zambia. Furthermore, CMI has worked with the Zambian and British governments to bring an additional USD100million (12-2020) in investments into Zambian SMEs as part of its contribution to its sustainable development goals [ E4].

On June 27^th 2019 the UK became the first major economy in the world to make a legislative commitment to achieving net zero GHG emissions by 2050. This builds on the global objectives outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Success in demonstrating these commitments is dependent upon the ability of governments to measure and monitor GHG emissions.

The first dedicated European GHG Mission: MicroCarb

GGRSG research directly affected the UK Space Agency’s decision to invest into the MicroCarb mission. MicroCarb will be the first dedicated European CO₂ satellite, due to launch in 2022. The mission will allow scientists to track the exchange of carbon between the surface and atmosphere, necessary to understand the response of natural carbon pools to climate change and quantify human CO₂ emissions. MicroCarb will also have capability for a ‘City Mapping Mode’ with higher resolution [E1]. MicroCarb represents an important step towards a longer-term operational European monitoring system coordinated by the Copernicus program, and it is demonstrating the UK’s commitment to tackling climate change by integrating UK science and engineering communities [E2].

The results of GGRSGC research have demonstrated the importance of rigorous, scientifically-based algorithms, quality calibration, and capable data processing for successful CO₂ measurements with the accuracy needed for operational monitoring. As stated by the UK Space Agency’s Head of Earth Observation and Climate: “ the scientific work by NCEO [at UoL and Edinburgh] researchers has shown to the UK Space Agency that satellite observations of CO₂ and CH₄ have now reached a sufficiently high level of maturity’ and that ‘based on the scientific work carried out by NCEO, UKSA is now convinced that space based GHG monitoring capability is a high priority for the UK” [E3] . As an immediate step, the UK government (BEIS via the UK Space Agency), made the strategic decision to invest GBP10,000,000 into the MicroCarb mission to ensure the UK was fully involved in CO₂ measuring missions. The long term need for climate security meant it was vital that industry undertook key roles and that investment built on the UK space sector commitment to climate data from space for climate services as a growth area for industry [E3, E4]. As stated in [E3], this “decision to invest in the MicroCarb mission has been a direct result of research carried out by NCEO [at UoL and Edinburgh] as part of the ‘Bilateral Carbon Mission’ Study and the associated business case” . The study has been led by Boesch who also developed substantial parts of the business case submitted by UK Space Agency to the Treasury [E4, E5].

The investment into MicroCarb has directly contributed to the growth of the space sector in the UK in key priority areas including ground segment, information services and ground calibration. UK companies involved in MicroCarb include world leaders in space systems design Thales Alenia, aerospace technology solutions company GMV UK, global leaders in measurement solutions the National Physical Laboratory and Research and Development company RAL Space [E1]. Thales Alenia, a key partner in project delivery, emphasised the importance of the project, saying that MicroCarb will be “Ultimately helping decision makers to develop the best policies to make the world a better place” [E6].

Driving European climate change commitments

The work of GRSG has resulted in decisions far beyond the immediate collaboration on MicroCarb. ESA was given the go ahead in 2019 by the ESA Council of Ministers, including the UK, to build two operational CO₂ monitoring missions (CO2M) to be launched under the Copernicus Programme [E7]. The UK increased its contribution by an additional £200 million to the ESA Earth Observation programme [E3]. As stated in [E3], ‘this decision was driven by a strong commitment to monitoring climate from space including the future space-based CO₂ monitoring system of the Copernicus program (CO2M) informed by knowledge from the research carried out by NCEO [at UoL and Edinburgh]’.

CO2M provides a unique and independent source of information for policy makers to assess the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at climate change mitigation and to track their impact towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. According to the Head of the Copernicus Unit at the European Commission, CO2M “ is the largest environmental space programme ever designed in Europe to monitor our dynamic Earth. This CO₂ initiative constitutes a significant positive step towards climate change mitigation and will further consolidate Europe’s leading position on the global stage in this policy field of utmost and critical importance for mankind” [E8].

The work carried out by GGRSG and international collaborators has given UK and European governments the confidence to invest in an operational monitoring system [R2, R3, R4]. The cumulative scientific work of GGRSG led by Boesch, has “demonstrated to ESA that satellite observations of CO₂ and CH₄ have reached a sufficiently high level of maturity to be implemented as satellite instrument, as evidenced in many peer-reviewed publications” [E9].

Building on extensive work by Boesch on earlier missions [ E10, E11], Boesch has helped to advance the fundamental methods on CO₂ remote sensing to the level required for CO2M. Through ESA projects, Boesch’s GGRSG team has provided key insights into instrumental and retrieval uncertainties and how they impact the mission performance. As stated by ESA: “ Boesch’s outstanding contributions significantly supported the identification and formulation of specific mission requirements for observing greenhouse gases and the science studies provided ESA with the required detailed justification” [E9].

The decision for CO2M has also had a significant economic impact. The contract for the build of the first two satellites has been signed between ESA and the consortium lead OHB, Germany, with a total contract value of EUR445,000,000 [E12]. UK space industry (Thales Alenia Space) has been contracted to develop payload components worth EUR42,000,000. The design of the spacecraft build by industry is directly dictated by the ESA Mission Requirements Document (MRD) which formulates and justifies the specific mission requirements for CO2M [E13]. The work of GGRSG has significantly contributed to the formulation of the MRD and Boesch, as a member of the international CO2M Mission Advisory Group, drafted, reviewed and endorsed the MRD [E11].

Through direct collaboration with EUMETSAT, the European operational satellite agency for monitoring weather, climate and the environment from space, Boesch’s research has also influenced the design and architecture of the operational CO2M processing ground-segment [E14] that will generate the primary operational data stream of the CO₂ monitoring service.