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Submitting institution
The University of Warwick
Unit of assessment
16 - Economics and Econometrics
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Michael Waterson's government-commissioned report on secondary ticketing (“The Waterson Report”) has shaped the campaigning strategy of music industry professionals seeking to address the issue of secondary ticketing and prompted regulatory reform. The recommendations made in the report have been adopted and acted upon by the government, ultimately improving consumer protection from exploitation by sellers seeking to profit by reselling event tickets at greatly inflated prices. The report has also influenced consumer advice from the music industry to ticket buyers and has set the agenda for policy change on an international scale.

2. Underpinning research

Professor Waterson's established body of research into consumer choice and behaviour [ 3.1, 3.2, 3.3] demonstrates that:

  1. Reluctance on the part of consumers to undertake thorough searches when purchasing products and services reduces competition between suppliers, resulting in poor value for customers. [ 3.1, 3.2]

  2. Consumers are willing to pay considerably more than the list price when a desired product is in short supply. For example, in an empirical study of UK sales of the iPhone 4 on eBay [ 3.3], Waterson found that a highly significant premium over list price was paid in almost all sales over the first six weeks of the phone coming to the UK market – a time when demand for the product outstripped supply in primary retail outlets.

Based on Waterson's expertise, Sajid Javid MP (then Secretary of State for the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS)) directly invited him to lead an investigation into consumer protection measures concerning online secondary ticketing platforms. The research was jointly commissioned by BIS (now BEIS) and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS).

When tickets to recreational events are released onto the primary market, traders can use secondary ticketing platforms to re-sell them at greatly inflated prices. None of the associated profit reaches the organising body or artist, and the practice can undermine attempts to maintain public accessibility of events. However, the existence of a well-functioning secondary event-ticketing market can benefit consumers and performers.

Having taken written and oral evidence from key stakeholders including members of the public, industry representatives, event organisers, Parliamentarians, ticketing agencies and consumer representatives, Waterson wrote the Independent Review of Consumer Protection Measures concerning Online Ticketing Facilities ("The Waterson Report"). [ 3.4]

The report set out the issues surrounding secondary ticketing and considered whether they were satisfactorily addressed by the Consumer Rights Act 2015 (CRA).

The report concluded that the CRA, as a relatively new piece of legislation, required more detailed clarification and a consistent approach to enforcement. It presented a series of recommendations to improve the legislation:

  1. A lead body, such as National Trading Standards, should conduct an investigation into the CRA-compliance of secondary ticketing platforms and their sellers, with specifically allocated funding.

  2. Enforcement action should be taken in respect of breaches of the CRA.

  3. If, within a reasonable time, no progress has been made by secondary sites on compliance and identification of traders, the Government should consider alternative approaches such as licensing those selling beyond a certain volume of tickets.

  4. The primary ticket industry, with Government assistance, should form a project group to examine and standardise how information on primary ticket outlets, previous or forthcoming opportunities to buy for the same event, and pricing information including compulsory charges, is displayed.

  5. If the industry fails to form such a project group, ministers should call a roundtable for the various primary industry participants.

  6. The live event industry should be represented in the Cyber-Security Information Sharing Partnership.

  7. Primary ticket vendors should consider introducing identity technologies to prevent the mass purchase of tickets by individuals using ‘bots’.

  8. An annex to the report provides practical tips for consumers on ticket purchasing and it is recommended this is published by Citizens' Advice and other consumer organisations.

  9. The report concluded that the ticketing industry should continue to develop comprehensive approaches, such as a common standard for confirming the authenticity of tickets.

3. References to the research

3.1 Waterson, M. (2003). "The role of consumers in competition and competition policy."  International Journal of Industrial Organisation, Vol. 21(2), pp. 129-150. doi: 10.1016/S0167-7187(02)00054-1

3.2 Giulietti, M., Waterson, M., and Wildenbeest, M.R. (2014). "Estimation of search frictions in the British electricity market." The Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 62(4), pp. 555-590. doi: 10.1111/joie.12062

3.3 Waterson, M., and Doyle, C. (2012). "Your call: eBay and demand for the iPhone 4." International Journal of the Economics of Business, Vol.19(1), pp. 141-152. doi: 10.1080/13571516.2012.642644

3.4 Waterson, M. (2016). Independent Review of Consumer Protection Measures concerning Online Secondary Ticketing Facilities.

4. Details of the impact

Informing UK policy

Both Sajid Javid MP and Baroness Neville-Rolfe wrote to congratulate Waterson for his work on the report. [ 5.1] In March 2017, the Government issued its formal response to the report, stating its intention to accept all the recommendations. [ 5.2] As a direct result of the report's recommendations, National Trading Standards (NTS) and Trading Standards Scotland commenced investigation of particular individuals who engage in large-scale ticket purchases, with the aim of discouraging others from doing the same. NTS secured an increase in its grant to carry out this work. [ 5.3] Following investigation, two ticket touts were jailed in February 2020 on various counts of fraud relating to secondary ticketing. [ 5.3]

In December 2016, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) launched an investigation into secondary platforms' adherence to CRA legislation (including raids on two companies' offices). [ 5.4]  In November 2017, it began enforcement action against four major secondary ticketing websites suspected of breaching the CRA. [ 5.4] One of the platforms, Viagogo, failed to make necessary changes to how it presents information to its customers. As a result, the CMA initiated legal proceedings against them. In September 2019, following a court order secured by the CMA, Viagogo finally addressed outstanding concerns and court action has now been suspended. [ 5.4] The court order requires that an annual independent review of Viagogo's compliance be carried out until 2023. [ 5.4]

In April 2018, the Government introduced new rules requiring all ticket resellers and secondary platforms to provide consumers with detailed information about tickets, including the location of seats, disclosure of any restrictions and the original price. [ 5.5] For the first time, resellers will also have to supply the Unique Ticket Number to the purchaser if the event organiser specifies one, helping to identify the ticket's seat or standing area location. In addition, three of the main secondary ticketing sites signed formal undertakings committing to ensuring better information is provided about tickets resold through their sites, building on changes they made during the CMA's investigation. [ 5.5] The Advertising Standards Authority also announced a clampdown on misleading pricing practices on secondary websites in March 2018 and banned Viagogo from using the phrase "official site", referring them to Trading Standards. [ 5.5] Furthermore, an amendment to the Digital Economy Act in July 2018 gives the government the power to create a criminal offence of using internet bots for the mass-purchase of event tickets, with offenders subject to unlimited fines. [ 5.5]

In addition, the Waterson Report has shaped wider debate around this issue. It has been cited in 17 Parliamentary debates, including twice by Theresa May in PMQs (19 October 2016 and 1 March 2017). [ 5.6] The House of Commons Library produced a briefing paper on secondary ticketing (February 2017), referring extensively to the report. [ 5.6] Waterson continues to engage with the All-Party Parliamentary Group on ticket abuse, giving a presentation in January 2019.

Shaping music industry practices

Waterson's report was welcomed by 'a coalition of more than 30 music industry figures' who called on the Government to take forward the recommendations. [ 5.7] The Music Managers Forum (MMF), the largest representative body of music managers in the world, invited Waterson to speak at a 'Live and Ticketing Summit' in September 2016, hosted in collaboration with Songkick (a platform that manages ticket sales for artists) and FanFair Alliance, a group formed by music managers to campaign against online industrial-scale ticket-touting. Following the Summit, MMF and FanFair Alliance created a guide for managers and artists on tackling online ticket-touting. [ 5.8] FanFair Alliance has published two further guides since July 2016 to bring about change in secondary ticketing: advice for consumers on buying tickets online based on the guide in the annex to Waterson's report and advice on how to seek refunds from secondary platforms. [ 5.8] Drawing directly on Waterson's report, FanFair Alliance launched four practical policy recommendations to Government to help curtail the activities of professional online touts. [ 5.8]

The Society of Ticket Agents and Retailers (STAR) is the self-regulatory body for the entertainment ticketing industry in the UK. In 2018, STAR outlined the action it has taken in response to the issues suggested by Waterson for consideration by the primary ticket market. [ 5.9] In response to recommendation 4 of the report, STAR formed a project group of organisations across the live entertainment industry. The discussions, including STAR, CMA, DCMS and BIS, informed the CMA's advice to event organisers regarding ticket resales. [ 5.9] In 2017 STAR also updated the Code of Practice for its members to reflect Waterson's suggestion that booking or service fees should be included in the price shown on the ticket. [ 5.9] Furthermore, soon after the publication of the report, STAR established a relationship with the Cyber Information Sharing Partnership, as recommended by Waterson. [ 5.9]

Influencing wider policy and practice

Waterson has been asked to provide advice on event ticketing to multiple organisations, including government bodies. For example, he produced a report (February-June 2019) for the Irish Competition and Consumer Protection Commission on a merger between key players in the Irish ticketing industry, and in December 2019 he met with the founder of Twickets (the website for fan-to-fan face value ticket resales) to provide advice on expanding their operations. He also provided feedback on the draft of a report by the Face-Value European Alliance for Ticketing which makes recommendations for the future of online ticket resales across the EU (published October 2020).

The government of a Canadian province asked Waterson to conduct an overview of Canadian legislation regarding secondary ticketing and to provide policy advice (March 2017). He has also been in discussion with the US Government Accountability Office, which has since produced a report on consumer protection issues in event ticketing (April 2018) that cites the research. [ 5.10]

In addition, four start-up organisations have been in discussion with Waterson and are working to provide technological solutions to enhance security and transparency in the ticketing industry. One of them, the Aventus Protocol Foundation, invited Waterson onto their Advisory Board. [ 5.11] At their request, Waterson produced a follow-up report in the form of a working paper, discussing the potential role of technology in improving event ticketing. [ 5.11]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

5.1 Letters from Sajid Javid MP and Baroness Neville-Rolfe congratulating Professor Waterson on his report.

5.2  Formal Government Response (March 2017) accepting the report's recommendations in full, allocating funds to National Trading Standards and endorsing CMA action.

5.3  National Trading Standards (NTS) annual report 2016/17 (p. 5) confirming budget increase and enforcement action against large-scale ticket 'power sellers'. Combined with copy of NTS press release confirming two ticket-touts were jailed in February 2020, and article on Complete Music Update website linking this action to the Waterson Report.

5.4 Report of the CMA's investigation, including court action against Viagogo.

5.5 Press releases [Combined PDF]: (a) BEIS news story, February 2018 - New rules introduced to protect consumers against ticket touting; (b) CMA press release, April 2018 - Secondary ticketing sites pledge overhaul; (c) DCMS press release, December 2017 - New legislation to ban ticket tout bots; (d) Advertising Standards Authority news article, March 2018 - Clampdown on misleading pricing practices on secondary websites.

5.6  Transcripts of seventeen Parliamentary debates referencing the Waterson Report, including two PMQs. Combined with House of Commons Briefing paper (no. CBP4715), June 2018.

5.7 MusicWeek article detailing the response from leading music industry figures to the Waterson Report, May 2016.

5.8 FanFair Alliance website outlining policy recommendations to Government following the Waterson Report. Combined with Fan Fair Alliance guide for consumers on buying tickets online. FanFair Alliance reports including: four practical policy recommendations to government based on the Waterson report, advice for artists and managers about combatting online ticket touting report, advice for consumers about buying tickets online and beating the touts report; and advice on how to seek refunds from secondary ticketing platforms [combined PDF].

5.9 Evidence submitted by the Society of Ticket Agents and Retailers (STAR) to the DCMS live music inquiry in 2018, making clear the actions they had taken as a result of the Waterson Report and CMA advice to event organisers regarding ticket resales [combined PDF].

5.10  US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, April 2018 (p. 30 and p.41).

5.11  Announcement of Professor Waterson joining the Aventus Board, July 2017, and Working Paper [combined PDF].

Submitting institution
The University of Warwick
Unit of assessment
16 - Economics and Econometrics
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

With assistance from HMRC, Arun Advani carried out research into the determinants of tax compliance and the long-term revenue effects of tax audits. Following the recommendations arising from the research, the UK Government committed to providing HMRC with the resources to employ 1,300 additional auditors, which is expected to bring in GBP3,900,000,000 of additional revenue over five years. [ Text removed for publication] Advani's work informed the development of the Labour Party's tax policy ahead of the 2019 general election and has attracted interest from tax administrators internationally.

2. Underpinning research

The research focused on two questions:

  1. Among self-assessment income taxpayers, which taxpayers are most likely to be non-compliant (i.e., to underpay taxes)?

  2. When such taxpayers are audited, how and why does their compliance behaviour change?

The analysis was based on evidence from administrative data on all self-assessment taxpayers (around 10,000,000 people per year) from 1997-2012, merging information from tax returns with data generated from the random audit programme conducted by HMRC. HMRC provided access to data through its Datalab.

To examine the first question, Advani investigated which factors predict underpaying taxes, and the amount of underpayment. The research uncovered four new facts about UK compliance behaviour. First, non-compliance is relatively widespread, with just over a third of self-assessment taxpayers underreporting. Second, just 4% of self-assessment taxpayers account for more than 40% of the missing revenue. Third, non-compliance varies with individual characteristics: it is higher among men; those working in hospitality (e.g., bed and breakfast owners) and transport (e.g., cab drivers); and those living in Northern Ireland. Finally, non-compliance is concentrated in particular income sources, notably self-employment income. Incomes that must also be reported by third parties have higher compliance rates. [ 3.1, 3.4]

To examine the second question, Advani compared individuals who were audited with similar individuals who could have been audited in the same year but were not, following their subsequent income declarations over time. The systematic differences in income declarations following audits provide a measure of the additional tax revenue resulting from audits. The research found that people who were audited continue to pay higher taxes not only immediately following the audit (the 'direct' effect of the audit) but for 5 to 8 years after the audit (an 'indirect', dynamic effect), with 60% of the additional revenue triggered by audits coming from these dynamic effects. Accounting for only the immediate effects of audits therefore greatly understates their revenue benefits. [ 3.2, 3.3]

Advani used testable predictions from a theoretical model to discriminate between alternative determinants of post-audit compliance behaviour in the data. The modelling showed that the most likely explanation for the sustained increase in tax payments post audit is that, once non-compliant individuals are audited and HMRC uncovers under-reported income, it becomes difficult for them to hide this income again. Other explanations, such as taxpayers' learning about the cost of an audit or thinking that they are now more likely to be targeted, can be ruled out. [ 3.3]

The research has important implications for clamping down on tax evasion and bringing in additional revenue to fund public services. By showing who is most likely to underpay taxes and how and why the long-term compliance behaviour of individuals changes after being audited, the research indicates where HMRC should focus its resources (i.e., which groups of people to target), and what the return to audits is, and therefore how many audits HMRC should do. The trend over the past fifteen years has been for audits to decline, but the research indicates that more should be done.

The analysis and write-up of 3.1 was entirely done since Advani joined Warwick (and subsequently written up as 3.4). The analysis described in 3.2 was initiated at the IFS but continued after Advani joined Warwick. 3.2 was later extended and published as 3.3 to include additional underpinning research conducted at Warwick – for example, uncovering, for the first time, that effects on revenues can be attributed to responses by mis-reporters who have predictable income sources.

3. References to the research

3.1 Advani, A. (2017). “Who does and doesn't pay taxes?” IFS Briefing Note No. 218. https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/BN218.pdf

3.2 Advani, A., Elming, W., and Shaw, J. (2017). "The dynamic effects of tax audits ." IFS Working Paper No. W17/24. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies. https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/WP201724.pdf

3.3 Advani, A., Elming, W., and Shaw, J. (2019). “The dynamic effects of tax audits.” Warwick Economics Research Papers Series ( TWERPS) No.1198. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/119640/

3.4 Advani, A. (2020). “Who does and doesn’t pay taxes?” Warwick Economics Research Papers Series ( TWERPS) No.1321. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/147262

Also to appear in Fiscal Studies: The Journal of Applied Public Economics, 2021. doi: 10.1111/1475-5890.12257

4. Details of the impact

Influencing central government resourcing for HMRC

The findings of Advani's research had direct impact on the resourcing of tax audits.

In partnership with The Spectator and New Statesman magazines, Advani organised panel events at the Conservative and Labour Party conferences in autumn 2019 to present his work

to a policymaker audience. Jesse Norman MP (Financial Secretary to the Treasury) was a panellist at the Conservative Party event, enabling Advani to draw his attention to the value of audits for raising income. He also made contact with Tim Leunig (Economic Advisor to the Chancellor) through the event, and subsequently had meetings with Norman, Leunig and other Treasury officials to discuss the implications of his research for HMRC resourcing in the context of the number of audits they should be doing. [ 5.1]

Building on Advani's work, the Treasury asked HMRC to provide costings for an expansion of compliance staff across a range of taxpayer groups. In the spring 2020 budget, the Chancellor committed to providing HMRC with the resources to employ 1,300 additional auditors, which is expected to bring in an average of GBP770,000,000 per year over the next five years (GBP3,900,000,000 in total), or almost GBP600,000 a head. [ 5.1]

Shaping HMRC practices

Advani discussed the research findings with senior members of the HMRC Tax Gaps and Compliance teams. He presented the findings to high-level HMRC staff, including the Permanent Secretary and other senior directors, in December 2017, providing "… sound evidence around different options HMRC could pursue" (Jim Harra, Director General, HMRC Customer Strategy & Tax Design), and offering "new insights about self-assessment taxpayer behaviour and the impact of HMRC's compliance activities [that] will have value both within and outside of HMRC" (Kevin Fletcher, Director, HMRC Knowledge, Intelligence & Analysis Unit). [ 5.2] In March 2020 Advani also discussed the implications of his work with Ruth Stanier, Director General of Customer Strategy and Tax Design at HMRC, having been put in touch directly by Tim Leunig.[ Text removed for publication]

The research is also referenced in the Office for Statistics Regulation's 'Compliance check on HMRC measuring tax gap statistics' as an example of innovative use of HMRC data. It recommends that HMRC publish links between its data and resulting research, specifically mentioning Advani's research, to help promote greater use of its Datalab. [ 5.5]

Informing opposition party policy and third sector campaigning

The research informed the development of the Labour Party's tax policy ahead of the 2019 general election. Following the Labour Party conference event, Advani was contacted by economic advisors to the then Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, [ Text removed for publication].

Later that day, McDonnell gave a speech in Parliament during a debate on tax avoidance and argued the need for increasing the number of targeted audits, referencing the same research findings drawn on in the Fair Tax Programme. [ 5.6]

Tax Justice UK also drew on Advani's work in its Manifesto for Tax Equality, published at the start of the 2019 general election campaign to urge political parties to address tax inequality and avoidance by resourcing HMRC to increase targeted audits. [ 5.8]

Informing international tax practice and wider debate

The influence of the research has had an international reach. Advani presented his work to representatives from the Norwegian Tax Authority in May 2018 and had follow-up discussions with them later in the year, helping to inform their subsequent study to understand the long-term effects of tax audits in Norway. [ 5.9]

Advani has also presented his work to tax administrators from four states in East India (West Bengal, Mizoram, Sikkim, and Assam). He has had email discussions with the New Zealand and Ethiopian tax authorities about learnings that might be relevant for them and spoke to officials from the South African Revenue Service in March 2020 about improving their measures of compliance.

Furthermore, Advani's work was cited by the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab and in the IFS Green Budget 2018 to highlight the value of targeted audits. The latter was subsequently used by the OECD to call for more targeted audits in its UK Economic Survey report. [ 5.10]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

5.1 Supporting Statement email from Tim Leunig, Economic Advisor to the Chancellor, HM Treasury (March 2020).

5.2 Letters from Kevin Fletcher, HMRC Chief Economist (November 2017), and Jim Harra, Second Permanent Secretary of HMRC and Tax Assurance Commissioner (December 2017).

5.3 Supporting Statement email from Economic Advisor (Tax Compliance) at HMRC (September 2020).

5.4 ‘Tackling the tax gap', National Audit Office (NAO) Report - acknowledging Advani's contribution on p.56 (July 2020). Combined with Supporting Statement from NAO Director of HMRC Value for Money (September 2020).

5.5 Letter from Office for Statistics Regulation to HMRC -acknowledging 3.1 in Recommendations 4(e) and 5 (May 2019).

5.6 Citations in the Labour Party's Fair Tax Programme. Combined with transcript of John McDonnell's Parliamentary speech (25th February 2020).

5.7 Testimonial email from John McDonnell MP's office (March 2020).

5.8 A Manifesto for Tax Equality, Tax Justice UK, p. 12, (November 2019).

5.9 Slides from Norwegian Tax Authority presenting results from a Study into the Effects of Tax Audits in Norway and citing Advani's research (March 2019)

5.10  Combined report citations: Increasing accountability and reducing corruption through government audits, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (August 2020); The IFS Green Budget, Institute for Fiscal Studies, p. 189 (October 2018); OECD Economic Surveys UK, OECD, reference to IFS Green Budget, p.54 (October 2020).

Submitting institution
The University of Warwick
Unit of assessment
16 - Economics and Econometrics
Summary impact type
Economic
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Clement Imbert and co-investigators developed and tested applications of nudge theory that are being used by the Belgian Tax Authority to influence changes in taxpayer behaviour. The research has led to permanent changes in the way the tax authority communicates with personal income taxpayers, enabling them to increase tax compliance and make significant cost savings on enforcement measures. Following the success of the intervention, a formal unit within the tax authority has been established to study and apply behavioural insights across other areas of tax collection. Policymakers in Belgium and other European countries are now trialling and implementing behavioural nudges more widely, drawing on findings from the research.

2. Underpinning research

The study of determinants of individual behaviour that go beyond those stressed by standard theories of rational choice has become a prominent area in economics in recent years. One dimension of this research that has received a lot of attention from policymakers is 'nudging'. Nudges are used to influence individuals to take a desired action and can offer low-cost solutions to societal challenges. They often involve subtle changes to language or the use of imagery to prompt action. Research conducted by Dr Clement Imbert, with colleagues at the University of Oxford and London School of Economics, explored how the use of nudges in communication with taxpayers affects their compliance and improves the effectiveness of the tax collection process. The project builds on Imbert's background in conducting field experiments, in collaboration with policymakers that have aimed to improve the effectiveness of public services in India and France.

Tax authorities devote considerable resources to the collection of taxes. Closing the 'tax gap' – with the potential of recouping millions in missing tax revenue – is a key objective for governments. It is also important that taxes are paid on time so that funds are available for public services, especially in times of austerity. Chasing overdue payments creates significant additional administrative and financial burden for authorities.

Effective tax collection requires robust understanding of the drivers of tax compliance and the cost-effectiveness of interventions to improve compliance. Imbert and colleagues carried out four population-wide natural field experiments with the Belgian tax authority over the course of three fiscal years (2014-2016). They tested how a series of sixteen different types of nudges in letters sent to taxpayers affected compliance throughout the tax process, across the entire population subject to self-assessment personal income tax in Belgium.

The tax authority writes to personal income taxpayers to request them to file a tax return and

again to request payment of taxes. Follow-up correspondence is sent if taxpayers are late in filing their tax return or late in paying taxes. The team applied nudges to correspondence sent at each of these four stages of the tax collection process including in the 'Tax on Web' system, an online interface through which people can file taxes.

They tested the effect of simplifying correspondence by shortening letters, reducing information overload, and highlighting action-relevant information using colour or boxes. For a subset of taxpayers, they tested the effect of adding 'deterrence' messages to simplified letters that make explicit the financial penalties of not paying and/or highlight enforcement actions that will be taken. Lastly, they tested 'tax morale' messages that highlight the public value of taxes and/or the social norms attached to paying taxes.

Key findings [ 3.1] include:

• Simplifying communication consistently and substantially increases tax compliance. Simplification makes more people pay taxes on time and makes both late filers and late payers comply more swiftly than they otherwise would.

• Simplified tax filing reminders increased subsequent filing by 8% compared to the standard reminder.

• For late taxpayers, receiving a simplified payment reminder increased the probability of tax payment by as much as 23% in the subsequent 14 days, compared to the standard reminder. After 6 months, the effect equated to nearly EUR 4,000,000 additional revenue (EUR 3,160,000 extra in taxes plus enforcement cost savings of EUR 700,000.)

• Reducing information overload and emphasising action-relevant information are particularly effective in increasing compliance.

• Including deterrence messages in simplified letters has an additional positive effect.

• Communication that includes 'tax morale' messages is not effective – and sometimes even backfires.

• Taxpayers who receive simplified communication one year continue to be more compliant the following year.

• Regardless of the method of cost-benefit analysis used, simplified communication is far more cost-effective than standard enforcement measures (e.g., bailiffs).

The research was initiated through De Neve and Spinnewijn, who had connections with the Belgian tax authority. Imbert, De Neve and Spinnewijn designed and conducted the trial in consultation with Maarten Luts, Nudging & Tax Compliance Project Manager at the tax authority. Imbert analysed and drew conclusions from the data, designed the cost-benefit analysis, and led on writing the paper, with the support of Tsankova, a Warwick PhD student.

3. References to the research

3.1 Imbert, C., De Neve, J.-E., Luts, M., Spinnewijn, J., and Tsankova, T. (2019). “How to improve tax compliance? Evidence from population-wide experiments in Belgium.”  Warwick Economics Research Papers Series (TWERPS) No. 1194. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics.

Also to appear in the Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 129(3), 2021. doi: 10.1086/713096

4. Details of the impact

Improving tax compliance in Belgium

The research was conducted in collaboration with the General Administration of Collection and Debt Recovery within the Belgian Finance Ministry (Federal Public Service (FPS) Finances). Throughout the course of the experiments, the team had regular meetings with senior government officials, including the President of FPS Finance, the Administrator-General for Collection and Debt Recovery and the Administrator-General for Taxation for Individuals.

Following the research, FPS Finance has now permanently adopted simplified communication to taxpayers, using the same simplification techniques tested in the experiments, as well as a deterrence message highlighting the penalties for not paying. [ 5.1]

Simplified letters with deterrence messages are sent to all individuals subject to completing a personal income tax return in Belgium (approximately 2,000,000 people annually), throughout the tax process. This includes letters sent to taxpayers to request them to file a return and again to request payment of taxes, as well as reminders where submissions or payments are late. [ 5.1] Letters are sent in all the main languages spoken in Belgium: French, German and Flemish.

The new approach to tax collection has had a significant ongoing effect on compliance, both in terms of revenue gained and timeliness of payments. It has also led to substantial cost-savings by reducing the need for traditional enforcement methods. Replying to a Parliamentary question about the results of the trial, the Belgian Finance Minister at the time, Johan Van Overtveldt [ 5.2], confirmed that:

  • EUR 4,000,000 additional revenue was collected in 2015 and EUR 3,000,000 in 2016.

  • EUR 30,000,000 was collected more quickly in 2015 (compared to previous years when simplified letters were not used), and EUR 25,000,000 in 2016.

  • EUR 1,000,000 was saved in enforcement costs in 2015, and EUR 1,400,000 was saved in 2016. (This compares to EUR 79,550 for the one-off cost of the simplification intervention.)

The Minister also confirmed that, following the success of the intervention, the use of behavioural insights has been included as an objective in FPS Finance's governance agreement, and a formal unit within the tax authority has been established to study and apply behavioural insights throughout the tax process. [ 5.2]

Referring to the research, he said: "The undeniable positive results of the various experiments that the Federal Public Service (FPS) Finance has carried out in recent years clearly demonstrate the added value of the use of behavioural theories. Small, low-cost interventions can have a big impact on the behaviour of those liable for payment and reporting...The current and future Governance Agreement with FPS Finance refers to the importance of applying nudging and behavioural insights to incentivise taxpayers to fulfil their tax obligations. In this context, a new unit is currently being set up within the General Administration of Collection and Recovery that will specifically deal with Tax Compliance and the role behavioural insights can play in this." [ 5.2, translation from French]

The 'Tax Compliance and Behavioural Insights' unit was established November 2018 and is led by Maarten Luts. It initiates and oversees the use of behaviour nudging methods to enhance the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of all policies targeting tax compliance. For example, all letters sent to debtors are now reviewed in the context of the nudge messages trialled in the research. This includes VAT payment reminders, communication about split payment plans and reminder letters to pay penal fines. [ 5.1]

Influencing wider applications of nudging in policymaking

As the only behavioural insights unit within the federal administration, the Tax Compliance and Behavioural Insights unit acts as a centre of expertise for other administrations within FPS Finance and more widely across federal ministries and regional governments in Belgium. Maarten Luts and colleagues have met directly to share learning from the research with representatives from the ministry for social security, ministry for labour, ministry for policy and support, and the Federal Agency for Administrative Simplification. They have also provided advice to the country's 3 regional governments (Wallonia, Brussels and Flanders) and the City of Antwerp. [ 5.1]

Following the success of the intervention, the federal government is considering how nudge theory can be used more widely in policy. The research was cited in a proposal to apply insights from behavioural science to the Belgian healthcare sector, which was adopted by the Chamber of Representatives in July 2018. The proposal mandates that the federal government test nudges within selected policy areas in the health sector, implement them if successful, and establish a Belgian centre of expertise in behavioural science. [ 5.3]

The research was also cited in an approved proposal to apply behavioural insights widely across Flemish regional policy. It commits the Flemish government to developing a framework for the application of behavioural sciences in policy, trialling behavioural science initiatives in selected policies annually and setting up a Flemish Behavioural Sciences expert team, which has since been established. [ 5.4]

The impact of the research has extended to other countries, in Europe and beyond, that are using learning from the research to inform behavioural interventions in tax compliance activities. Luts has presented the research to authorities in Bulgaria, Ethiopia, Netherlands, Poland, Germany, Macedonia, Serbia and Mali. The tax administration of the Czech Republic is starting behavioural trials to improve compliance, and Luts is one of the experts advising them throughout the process. The trials are testing the simplification nudges and the deterrence and social norm messages from the Belgian experiments and following the same design. [ 5.1]

The project has been featured in briefing documents that highlight best practice in the use of behavioural insights in policy, including from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) [ 5.5] and the Intra-European Organisation of Tax Administrators (IOTA). [ 5.6] The JRC is coordinating a cross-national experiment with several European tax administrations to test the use of nudge messages in tax collection, including the deterrence message nudge tested in the trial. Luts and his team are closely involved in this project, with Belgium providing a leading example of the effective use of nudging. The findings are due to be presented at a conference organised by the European Commission and the OECD Forum on Tax Administration. [ 5.1]

The research was also presented to 27 different countries at the OECD and IOTA conference hosted by Belgium in April 2017. After the conference, Belgium recommended that the OECD form a Community of Interest on Behavioural Insights. This was launched in late 2017 and shares best practice in applying behavioural insights to improve public policy worldwide. Belgium also leads the Tax Debt Management Network within the OECD and has promoted Behavioural Insights on the Network's agenda. [ 5.1]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

5.1 Supporting Statement from Maarten Luts, FPS Finance tax authority (July 2020).

5.2 Transcript of Parliamentary question from Senator Peter van Rompuy and response from Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt. Transcripts in French and Dutch (January 2019).

5.3 Proposal for resolution applying the insights of behavioural sciences to the healthcare sector in Belgium - reference to study on p. 9 (May 2017). Combined with record showing the progress and approval of the proposal in the Chamber of Representatives ("aangenomen" = approved). Transcripts in French and Dutch.

5.4 Proposal to apply behavioural science insights in the Flemish Government - reference to study on p. 5 and p. 8 (July 2016). Combined with record showing the progress and approval of the proposal in the Flemish Government (Transcript in Dutch) and webpage on Flemish Behavioural Insights Team.

5.5 European Commission Joint Research Centre briefing paper: “Behavioural Insights Applied to Policy: Belgium Country Overview” (May 2016).

5.6  Intra-European Organisation of Tax Administrators briefing paper: “Nudging in the context of taxation: How the Belgian FPS Finance use behavioural insights to encourage taxpayers to pay faster” (February 2019).

Submitting institution
The University of Warwick
Unit of assessment
16 - Economics and Econometrics
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Work on economics and well-being by Andrew Oswald and collaborators over the last twenty years has changed how governments and social scientists conceptualise and measure societal progress. Oswald's ideas have brought the concept of well-being into everyday discourse and embedded it as a central aim of policymaking in the UK and beyond. Oswald is regularly called upon by policymakers to advise on incorporating well-being metrics and objectives into policy design and evaluation, including at the UK Treasury, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the European Commission. A study conducted by Oswald, Sgroi and Proto (2015) was the first within Economics to demonstrate a strong relationship between employee well-being and productivity in the workplace. The research attracted extensive media coverage and its findings have been used to improve workplace policies.

2. Underpinning research

Andrew Oswald has been a central contributor to the literature on the economics of happiness and well-being throughout the current REF period. He has developed measures of well-being and explored how happiness is determined by personal circumstances and economic factors. He has demonstrated how levels of well-being are affected by factors relating to physical health, such as obesity and hypertension, as well as increased fruit and vegetable consumption. His work has also shown how happiness fundamentally affects economic outcomes, such as productivity in the workplace.

Through Oswald's research, it has become widely accepted that well-being metrics should play an important role in monitoring trends in quality of life, both for policy and scientific purposes. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the UK recently began collecting annual data on life satisfaction, happiness, worthwhileness of life, and anxiety levels.

Oswald's work has appeared mainly in economics journals but also in journals from science, public health, epidemiology, statistics and psychiatry. Key findings over the REF period include:

  • Oswald and colleagues were the first in the world to develop a method to put a monetary value on the happiness and unhappiness from life events. For example, they calculated that getting married equates to the same amount of happiness, on average, as having an extra GBP70,000 of income per year. They also found evidence that well-being is influenced by comparisons with other people. [ 3.1]

  • Oswald's article in the 2004 Journal of Public Economics showed, among many other statistical results, that mental well-being has failed to improve over many decades of data in the UK and USA. [ 3.2]

  • His work on randomised lottery wins was arguably the first in the world to establish formal causality between income and human happiness. Using longitudinal data, the research found that individuals who had medium-sized lottery wins went on to exhibit significantly better psychological health than those who had small wins or no wins. [ 3.3]

  • Research by Oswald and co-authors was the first to use country panels to estimate how macroeconomic conditions, and social safety nets, affect human happiness. The findings demonstrated that people are happier when inflation and unemployment are low. [ 3.4]

  • Oswald and co-authors were the first to demonstrate the now-famous finding that psychological well-being in developed countries is U-shaped through life, providing longitudinal evidence for a 'midlife crisis'. They found that people's well-being gradually drops until midlife, then slowly rises again until the age of 70. [ 3.5] In a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, Oswald also replicated the human pattern in samples of chimpanzees and orangutans.

  • Oswald and two Warwick colleagues, Daniel Sgroi (at Warwick September 2007 to present) and Eugenio Proto (at Warwick October 2005 to December 2017), demonstrated that happiness makes people more productive in the workplace. The team ran the world's first large-scale randomised controlled trials in this field of research. [ 3.6]

3. References to the research

Key publications over the period 2000-2020 (45 refereed publications) include:

3.1 Clark, A., and Oswald, A. (2002). "A simple statistical method for measuring how life events affect happiness." International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 31(6), pp. 1139-1144. doi: 10.1093/ije/31.6.1139

3.2 Blanchflower, D., and Oswald, A. (2002). “Well-being over time in Britain and the USA.” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 88(7-8), pp. 1359-1386. doi: 10.1016/S0047-2727(02)00168-8

3.3 Gardner, J., and Oswald, A. (2006). "Money and mental wellbeing: A longitudinal study of medium-sized lottery wins." Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 26(1), pp. 49-60. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2006.08.004

3.4 Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R., and Oswald, A. (2001). "Preferences over inflation and unemployment: Evidence from surveys of happiness." American Economic Review, Vol. 91(1), pp. 335-341. doi: 10.1257/aer.91.1.335

3.5 Cheng, T., Powdthavee, N., and Oswald, A. (2017). "Longitudinal evidence for a midlife nadir in human well-being: Results from four data sets." The Economic Journal, Vol. 127(599), pp. 126-142. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12256

3.6 Oswald, A., Proto, E., and Sgroi, D. (2015). "Happiness and productivity." Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 33(4), pp. 789-822. doi: 10.1086/681096

4. Details of the impact

Informing policymaking in the UK

Over the REF period, Oswald was repeatedly consulted by UK civil servants on the measurement of well-being and analysis of well-being data, including a talk on 'Well-being: Research and Policy' at HM Treasury (2013), an invited lecture at the 'Government Economic Service at 50' event (2014), and a talk at the Treasury's 'Teach-In on Well-being' (2017).

Oswald has been working closely with the ONS Quality of Life Team on several recent projects. He advised the ONS (2019-20) on a project with the Cabinet Office (CO) to deliver the first phase of the Well-being Pillar of their Strategic Framework, which aims to improve the design of cross-cutting policy priorities to achieve better outcomes for citizens. Oswald helped the ONS to provide the CO with an accurate picture of UK well-being, ensuring the information they reported was based on relevant academic evidence, including his own research. [ 5.1] Additionally, he has provided advice on different measures of well-being inequality through his role on an ONS advisory group. The ONS has also been liaising regularly with Oswald for advice on improvements to their well-being publications; advice on additional well-being analysis that could be carried out and measurement methodology; and help linking up economic and well-being data. [ 5.1]

Oswald was one of a small number of experts consulted by HM Treasury in preparation of the 2018 Green Book, which provides guidance for civil servants on how to appraise and evaluate policies and programmes, allowing them to advise Ministers on different options. It is a key document that shapes the day-to-day work of government officials and is used or has been replicated internationally. Well-being was a priority area for the update, and for the first time the book states that improving well-being (referred to as social value) is the underlying aim of policy development and evaluation. Omar Idriss (then HM Treasury) led the project to update the book and consulted Oswald for advice on the well-being evidence base and its practical application, based on his research expertise. Idriss notes that this "enabled me to develop a high-quality, evidence-based draft of the various sections on well-being which were included. This was subsequently agreed across government and highlighted to Ministers as a key development." He comments that without Oswald's input, "it would have been challenging to deliver the work which enables government officials conducting appraisal and cost-benefit analysis […] to intelligently include well-being evidence in their work to shape policy development." [ 5.2]

The 2018 Green Book references a DWP and HM Treasury report (Fujiwara D., and Campbell R, (2011). Valuation Techniques for Social Cost-Benefit Analysis: Stated Preference, Revealed Preference and Subjective Well-Being Approaches. A Discussion of the Current Issues) which extensively cites Oswald's work and uses a valuation method first outlined in 3.1. [ 5.3] One of the report's authors, Daniel Fujiwara (a former senior economist in the Cabinet Office who led on the econometric analysis of wellbeing data to input into policymaking), testifies to the impact Oswald's research has had on the way governments evaluate policy: "Over the past 10 years wellbeing analysis and wellbeing valuation have become key methods used by governments across the world to assess policy interventions and Prof. Oswald was one of the first pioneers of these approaches […] I would say that Prof. Oswald's work over the past 20 years has had a major positive impact on how governments make decisions and spend taxpayers' money for the greater good of society. Organisations in both the public and private sector now want to measure the impacts of what they do on people's wellbeing and I feel that Prof. Oswald's pioneering work in wellbeing economics has been a key driver of this change." [ 5.4]  Dr Fujiwara has now established a well-being analysis consultancy (Simetrica), which employs many of the valuation methods that Oswald pioneered to help clients understand their social impact. [ 5.4]

Oswald has also played a leading role on the What Works Wellbeing Centre's advisory panel, which has advised on over sixteen systematic reviews of well-being evidence since 2015 (which have had over 50,000 downloads). [ 5.5] The Centre's work is used across government departments, business and the voluntary sector. Oswald's research is directly cited five times in the Centre's guide for policymakers on how to consider well-being in policy design and analysis. [ 5.5] Following publication of the 2018 Green Book, the Centre posted a blog discussing the significance of policies that incorporate well-being in analysis – for example, local economic strategies that focus on job quality and conditions that allow positive social interactions rather than just GDP and make emotional health in schools a priority alongside attainment. [ 5.5]

International measurement of well-being

Oswald's research has informed work on well-being at the European Commission. In 2019 the European Council adopted conclusions on the 'Economy of Wellbeing', inviting EU member states and the Commission to put people and their wellbeing at the centre of policy and decision-making. In June 2019, Oswald gave a lecture on well-being measurement and research to 100-150 policymakers at the European Commission and had a meeting at the Commission's Policy and Strategy Centre with the Principal Advisor on European Social Policy, Patrick Develtere, and the Head of Social Affairs, Ruby Gropas. Mr Develtere stated that Professor Oswald's work has been "very inspiring for the work we have been doing in the Commission on wellbeing and quality of life…several colleagues from the European institutions, but also from the member states and civil society have been referring to the work of Oswald in the course of the reflections that have been going on […] over the past years." [ 5.6]

Oswald's research is also referenced in the World Happiness Reports 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019 (including 19 references in the 2017 report and a special mention of thanks in the 2015 report). The World Happiness Report is the annual publication of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and ranks countries according to national happiness, based on a range of factors that go beyond income alone. [ 5.7]

Improving well-being and productivity at work

Oswald's work with Sgroi and Proto on happiness and productivity has been presented multiple times to civil servants, consultants and policymakers, including at an event supported by the Social Market Foundation in 2015. Seven of Oswald's papers are cited in the New Economics Foundation's report 'Well-being at work: A review of the literature', which makes recommendations on how organisations can foster employee well-being. [ 5.8]

In 2015-16, Sgroi and Proto had extensive discussions with Aberdeen City Council that laid the foundations for a programme of work to transform the way it operates and boost well-being among its 8,000 employees. Following the discussions, the Council developed a set of behavioural principles focussed on employee happiness: purpose, team working, valuing work and each other, pride and recognition, and collaboration and partnerships. These principles have underpinned tangible programmes of work to increase employee well-being, such as a project to improve interpersonal relationships within the organisation by reducing stigma around mental health issues. Practical steps include training mental health First Aiders, a communications campaign, a mental health week, and yoga and mindfulness courses. Other programmes of work include initiatives to create a sense of belonging and common purpose and to increase employee confidence and engagement. Changes to the working environment include flexible working and finding technological solutions to repetitive tasks so employees can concentrate on higher-value work. [ 5.9]

The research also attracted interest from the United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Happiness and Well-being and Oswald was invited to give a talk to 300 government officials. In 2018, the UAE National Program for Happiness and Well-being launched 'A Guide to Happiness & Well-being in the Workplace' for government entities and other organisations, which cites a briefing paper by Sgroi that is based on 3.6. [ 5.10]

Additional citations and media coverage

Over the impact period, Oswald and colleagues' work has been reported in hundreds of media sources in several languages (including The Daily Telegraph, The Economist, The New York Times, The Sun, Forbes , and The Daily Mail) [ 5.11], changing public understanding of how human progress should be defined and measured.

According to Altmetric, Oswald's work has been cited 39 times in 32 different policy documents during the impact period by organisations including think tanks, the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport, the Department for Work and Pensions, Public Health England, the Scottish Government and the Inter-American Development Bank. [ 5.11]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

5.1 Testimonial email from Silvia Manclossi, Head of Quality of Life Team, Office for National Statistics (February 2020).

5.2 Email from Omar Idriss (now at the Health Foundation) who led the project at HM Treasury to update the Green Book (February 2020).

5.3 DWP and HM Treasury report (Fujiwara D., and Campbell R, (2011). Valuation Techniques for Social Cost-Benefit Analysis: Stated Preference, Revealed Preference and Subjective Well-Being Approaches. A Discussion of the Current Issues.

5.4 Testimonial letter from Daniel Fujiwara, Simetrica (formerly civil service).

5.5 Testimonial letter from Nancy Hey, Director of What Works Wellbeing (February 2020). PDF combined with copy of the Centre's guide for policymakers that cites Oswald ( Well-being in Policy Analysis), and What Works Wellbeing blog: Treasury Green Book and Wellbeing: The Analysis (April 2018).

5.6 Email from Patrick Develtere, Principal Advisor on European Social Policy, European Commission (February 2020).

**5.7 ** World Happiness Reports 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019 [Combined PDF].

5.8  Well-being at Work: A review of the literature, New Economics Foundation (February 2014).

5.9 Email from Aberdeen City Council (December 2019).

**5.10 ** A Guide to Happiness and Productivity in the Workplace, United Arab Emirates National Program for Happiness & Well-being, 2018.

**5.11 ** Altmetric citation reports combined with selected examples of media coverage.

Submitting institution
The University of Warwick
Unit of assessment
16 - Economics and Econometrics
Summary impact type
Societal
Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
No

1. Summary of the impact

Claire Crawford's research on the determinants of participation in higher education (HE) has been central to the debate and policy development on reducing inequalities in HE access and attainment across different socioeconomic backgrounds. Research commissioned by the Office for Fair Access has informed how universities evaluate widening participation activities, ensuring they are more effective in increasing access to HE for disadvantaged students. Work commissioned by the Sutton Trust on the use of contextualised admissions has been widely cited in HE policy discussions and reports and has informed guidance given by HE-sector bodies to make admissions systems more inclusive.

2. Underpinning research

Crawford's established body of work has focused on the role of higher education in social mobility, shedding light on how personal characteristics and family background can determine an individual's chances of accessing and succeeding in higher education. Her findings show, for example, that young people from poorer backgrounds are less likely to attend university than their wealthier peers, and even those who do are less likely to attend the highest-status institutions and achieve the highest-degree class. The research indicates that more can be done by universities to reduce gaps in entry and success by family background. [ 3.1, 3.2]

Based on her expertise in higher education access, the Office for Fair Access (OFFA) commissioned Crawford, Dytham and Naylor in 2016 to investigate how Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in England currently evaluate their widening participation activities, and to provide guidance on best practice evaluation methods. The research, led by Crawford, found that there was confusion about OFFA's stance regarding evaluation, what would constitute a 'good approach' to evaluation and what the minimum requirements were. It identified current practices and challenges in outreach evaluation work and areas where more guidance is needed, leading to the development of proposed standards of evaluation. [ 3.3, 3.4, 3.5]

Crawford, along with co-authors at the University of Durham, was also commissioned by the Sutton Trust to conduct research into the use of 'contextual admissions' among the more selective universities in the UK. Contextual admissions criteria (such as type of school an applicant attended, their socio-economic background, or their personal circumstances) are considered by some HEIs as part of the admissions process. Based on this information, HEIs can reduce grade requirements or give special consideration to students from disadvantaged backgrounds. The research report [ 3.6] offers insights into the difference that greater use of contextual data could make to the numbers of disadvantaged students entering HE, as well as recommendations for practice.

Crawford led on the quantitative elements of the research, which analysed administrative data to understand how widely contextual admissions are used and the effect on students. Findings include:

  • While the gap in university access between disadvantaged students and their more advantaged peers has narrowed in recent years, the gap at the most selective universities remains stubbornly wide.

  • Greater use of contextual admissions could result in a substantial increase in the numbers of low-income students at the UK's most selective universities.

  • There is little evidence that applicants from contextual backgrounds are being admitted to selective universities in large numbers or with substantially lower average grade requirements than those applied to their peers from non-contextual backgrounds.

  • There is little evidence to suggest that universities that practice greater contextualisation see significantly higher dropout rates, lower degree completion rates, or lower degree class results.

3. References to the research

3.1 Crawford, C., Gregg, P., Macmillan, L., Vignoles, A., and Wyness, G. (2016) . “Higher education, career opportunities, and intergenerational inequality.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy , Vol. 32(4), pp. 553-575. doi: 10.1093/oxrep/grw030

3.2 Crawford, C., Dearden, L., Micklewright, J., and Vignoles, A. (2016). Family background and university success: differences in Higher Education access and outcomes in England. Oxford: Oxford University Press. eISBN-13: 9780191003165. doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199689132.001.0001

3.3 Crawford, C., Dytham, S., and Naylor, R. (2017). Improving the Evaluation of Outreach: Interview Report. https://pure.northampton.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/6246046/Crawford_Claire_2017_Improving_the_Evaluation_of_Outreach_Interview_report.pdf

3.4 Crawford, C., Dytham, S., and Naylor, R. (2017). The Evaluation of the Impact of Outreach: Proposed Standards of Evaluation Practice and Associated Guidance. https://pure.northampton.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/6246443/Crawford_Claire_UoN_2017_The_Evaluation_of_the_Impact_of_Outreach.pdf

3.5 Smith, J., and Naylor, R. (2001), “Determinants of individual degree performance: Evidence for the 1993 UK university graduate population from the USR.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 63, pp. 29-60. doi: 10.1111/1468-0084.00208

3.6 Boliver, V., Crawford, C., Powell, M., and Craige, W. (2017). Admissions in Context. The Sutton Trust. https://www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Admissions-in-Context-Final_V2.pdf

4. Details of the impact

Informing outreach evaluation guidance and practice

Every year around GBP1,000,000,000 is invested in outreach work to improve fair access to higher education, but there has been a lack of evaluation activity to understand the impact of this work and ensure value for money. Warwick research on the evaluation of HE outreach activities [ 3.3, 3.4, 3.5] has increased awareness of the importance of evaluation activity and helped to inform a step-change in evaluation practice in the HE sector in recent years.

Crawford spoke about the research at the Office for Students (OfS) launch event in February 2018. Writing in a Wonkhe article in March 2018, Chris Millward, Director for Fair Access and Participation at the OfS, said: "One of the key messages from Claire's speech at the launch conference that really struck home with me, was the role that the OfS can play in driving evidence-led practices. So, I will be looking for all providers to improve their use of evidence and evaluation so that we can make sure that investment is being focused on the activities that are most effective." [ 5.1]

Crawford also gave oral evidence to the House of Commons Education Committee's 'Value for money in higher education inquiry' (February 2018). The Committee's report to Government (November 2018) quotes Crawford in saying there is not robust evaluation of HEIs' widening participation work and recommends a rigorous evaluation process. In its response to the report, the Government confirmed that it has asked the OfS to focus on evaluation as a matter of priority, to ensure that spending on access and participation activities by the HE sector is having maximum positive impact. [ 5.2]

Crawford's research has informed advice given to HEIs by the Office for Fair Access (OFFA) and its successor, the OfS, on evaluating outreach. Millward confirms that "The research had a significant impact, producing a set of Evidence Standards, which, for the first time, provided clear guidance on the claims that can be made from evidence produced using different evaluation methods. The publication and the subsequent OFFA guidance led to improvements in evaluation practice." [5.1]

As Millward testifies, a second phase of the work was taken forward by the OfS and the resulting evaluation guidance was a key element in the regulatory requirements published in 2019 to provide guidance to HEIs on preparing their access and participation plans. He said: "Dr Crawford's research played an important role in enabling the OfS to give clear advice about what good evaluation practice looks like and to identify areas where the sector needed to improve." [ 5.1]

Milward also confirms the impact of Crawford's wider body of research into the link between socio-economic background and HE participation [ 3.1, 3.2]. He said: "Dr Crawford's research has influenced access and participation policy for a number of years. Prior to the establishment of the OfS, both HEFCE and OFFA drew on Dr Crawford's research [...] This research was often cited in OFFA access agreement and HEFCE student opportunity funding guidance and highlighted the importance of working with young people from under-represented and disadvantaged backgrounds from an early stage in their educational journey."  [ 5.1]

In addition, Crawford was one of two academic partners who helped to develop the Scottish Toolkit for Fair Access (underpinned by 3.3 and 3.4), commissioned by the Scottish Funding Council on behalf of the Commissioner for Fair Access. The toolkit is one of two pillars of the Scottish Framework for Fair Access, launched in 2019, and provides evidence on the effectiveness of outreach activities, supporting education practitioners to design successful interventions. [ 5.3]

Shaping debate and guidance on the use of contextual admissions

Admissions in Context [ 3.5] has raised awareness of the role that contextual admissions can play in increasing access to HE for students from disadvantaged backgrounds, informing public and policy debate. Following publication of the report, Sir Peter Lampl, Chairman of the Sutton Trust and the Education Endowment Foundation, called for top universities to make contextual admissions a 'central element' of their admissions processes. [ 5.4] The report received widespread media coverage, including The Guardian, The Sun, The Times, BBC News, The Independent, Evening Standard, Irish Times, Buzzfeed, TES, Wonkhe and BBC Radio 4's Today Programme. It was also discussed in a number of comment pieces including in Times Higher Education, the LSE Blog and Advancing Access. [ 5.4]

Crawford drew on the report's findings in her oral evidence to the Education Committee's 'Value for money in higher education' inquiry. The Committee's report to Government cites her evidence and makes a recommendation to support the use of contextualised admissions. [ 5.2] The Government's response to the report acknowledges that contextual admissions have a role to play in widening access to HE. [ 5.2]

Admissions in Context was also cited in the Scottish Commissioner for Fair Access 2017 annual report and feeds into the report's recommendations, including for universities to make bolder use of contextual offers. [ 5.5] In a ministerial statement at Holyrood, then-education minister Shirley Anne Somerville gave her support to the Commissioner's recommendations on contextual admissions. [ 5.5]

A number of sector organisations responded to the report and used it to inform their guidance to universities. Universities Scotland issued a formal response welcoming the report, confirming that Scotland's universities "intend to take bold new steps on the consistency, transparency and promotion of our contextualised admissions" and that "our actions will directly address many of the Sutton Trust's recommendations." [ 5.6] The Medical Schools Council published a report on good practice in contextual admissions in 2018 and endorses the Sutton Trust's recommendation that HEIs make greater use of contextual measures. [ 5.7] The OfS also encourages HE providers to consider the use of contextual data, referencing the report on its webpage on contextual admissions. [ 5.8] Its May 2019 Insight brief calls for more radical use of contextual admissions, citing the report's finding that universities are too conservative when making contextual offers. [ 5.8] In addition, the report is cited in policy briefings published by the Higher Education Policy Institute: the 'Manifesto for the new (OfS) Director of Fair Access and Participation' (May 2018), and Social mobility and elite universities (December 2019). [ 5.9]

The report has been the basis for the Sutton Trust's policy work on contextual admissions, including discussions with the Department for Education, UCAS and the OfS on making Free School Meals data available to universities. The Sutton Trust is also in discussions with its partner universities on whether Sutton Trust summer school participation could be recognised across universities as a marker for contextual admissions. [ 5.10]

Admissions in Context has been central to the debate on contextual admissions and the role they can play in making the HE admissions process more inclusive. As Sir Michael Barber, chair of the OfS, commented, February 2020, on the launch of a major review into the HE admissions system, there is now "widespread recognition that certain aspects of the current admissions system are not working, and may be especially unfair on students from disadvantaged backgrounds". [ 5.11] Ultimately, the OfS and other key organisations in the HE sector are now taking action to reform the system to address these inequalities. The role of contextual admissions for students from disadvantaged backgrounds will be one of the key issues considered. Separately, a 'Fair Admissions' review is also being carried out by Universities UK. [ 5.11]

5. Sources to corroborate the impact

5.1 Supporting Statement letter from Chris Millward, Director for Fair Access and Participation at the Office for Students. Combined with Wonkhe article by Chris Millward (26th June 2020).

5.2  House of Commons Education Committee Report: Value for money in higher education, (November 2018). Combined with Government Response to the Committee's Report, (January 2019).

5.3 Scottish Framework for Fair Access website confirming Crawford's contribution to the development of the Fair Access Toolkit.

5.4 Media Coverage of the Sutton Trust Report (2017).

5.5 Annual Report of the Scottish Commissioner for Fair Access 2017, page 44 and 48. Combined with Official Report of the Meeting of the Scottish Parliament, 6th March 2018 (transcript of Shirley Anne Somerville's ministerial statement supporting the Commissioner's recommendations), page 73 of PDF.

5.6  Universities Scotland Response to Sutton Trust Report (2017).

5.7 Medical Schools Council Report (2018).

5.8 Office for Students webpage on contextual admissions combined with Insight brief (May 2019) on contextual admissions.

5.9 Higher Education Policy Institute briefings: Reaching the parts of Society universities have missed; A manifesto for the new Director of Fair Access and Participation (May 2018) and Social mobility and elite universities (December 2019).

5.10  **Supporting Statement : email from Ruby Nightingale, Communications and Public Affairs Manager at the Sutton Trust (21st February 2020).

5.11 Sir Michael Barber quoted in FE News article ‘Reviewing the admissions system’ (February 2020). Combined with Universities UK press release (July 2019).

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