The miracle of the markets: Identifying key campaign events in the Scottish independence referendum using betting odds
- Submitting institution
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Swansea University / Prifysgol Abertawe
- Unit of assessment
- 11 - Computer Science and Informatics
- Output identifier
- 31712
- Type
- D - Journal article
- DOI
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10.1016/j.electstud.2017.01.003
- Title of journal
- Electoral Studies
- Article number
- -
- First page
- 39
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- -
- ISSN
- 02613794
- Open access status
- Compliant
- Month of publication
- December
- Year of publication
- 2017
- URL
-
-
- Supplementary information
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-
- Request cross-referral to
- -
- Output has been delayed by COVID-19
- No
- COVID-19 affected output statement
- -
- Forensic science
- No
- Criminology
- No
- Interdisciplinary
- Yes
- Number of additional authors
-
-
- Research group(s)
-
-
- Citation count
- 3
- Proposed double-weighted
- No
- Reserve for an output with double weighting
- No
- Additional information
- Gambling markets have long been viewed as a potential source of crowdsourced forecasting in political science potentially acting as a more granular alternative to polling data. This paper is significant because it tests this assertion against a specific, single, contemporary event in the form of the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum using digital tools to collect the data. Although evaluation reveals that the data did not have a stronger predictive power than polling data, it did demonstrate that polling could detect influential events in the run-up to the election.
- Author contribution statement
- -
- Non-English
- No
- English abstract
- -