"Predictive land capability mapping and assessment for Wales under climate change"
- Submitting institution
-
Cranfield University
- Unit of assessment
- 6 - Agriculture, Food and Veterinary Sciences
- Output identifier
- 30752836
- Type
- H - Website content
- Month
- November
- Year
- 2017
- URL
-
https://gov.wales/agricultural-land-classification-predictive-map
- Supplementary information
-
-
- Request cross-referral to
- -
- Output has been delayed by COVID-19
- No
- COVID-19 affected output statement
- -
- Forensic science
- No
- Criminology
- No
- Interdisciplinary
- No
- Number of additional authors
-
0
- Research group(s)
-
-
- Proposed double-weighted
- No
- Reserve for an output with double weighting
- No
- Additional information
- Agricultural Land Classification (ALC) is used to assess the quality of farmland and its suitability for particular uses. It is based on historic observations which are typically not easily accessible and does not reflect changes in future climatic conditions on soil properties. _x000D_
_x000D_
These two factors are addressed in the research performed to produce the new Predictive ALC map for Wales. It combines data at 50 m resolution on (a) soil properties based on soil series information from the National Soil Map; (b) altitude from the Ordnance Survey OSTERRAIN50 maps; (c) agroclimatic parameters from Defra; (d) UKCP18 low, medium and high emission climate scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080. Criteria for grading are chosen based on the long-term physical limitations of agricultural land use, such as climate (temperature, rainfall, frost risk, etc), site (gradient, flood risk, etc) and soil (texture, structure, depth, etc), and interactions between these factors such as soil wetness and erosion. The overall ALC grade is determined by graded criteria with the lowest (most limiting) grade determining the overall ALC grade. _x000D_
_x000D_
Whilst many studies show how crop productivity can shift under climate change, this research additionally accounts for the specific effects of soil and site conditions on agricultural production. It is predicted that climate change results in ALC grades in some areas improve between 2020 and 2050. This was related to an increase the temperature over the growing season. However, by 2080 the climate becomes too dry in some areas and droughtiness is the most limiting factor for ALC grade, assuming the land is not irrigated.
- Author contribution statement
- -
- Non-English
- No
- English abstract
- -
