Impact case study database

The A83 “Rest and Be Thankful” is a chronic hotspot of UK landslide activity. It is the most at-risk road in Scotland for TS, who are responsible for the safety of road users and the continuity of service through a series of Operating Companies (OCs, currently BEAR Scotland). The most serious human consequences of landslide events are serious injuries and fatalities. However, there are additional issues such as costs associated with clean up, repair, search and rescue, disruption to infrastructure because of road closures and diversions, and impacts on the lives of local people and transport-dependent sectors such as tourism. Furthermore, these can lead to a longer term ‘vulnerability shadow’ being cast over landslide-prone areas, which can create a scarring effect on the local economy.

Analysis by TRL of 4 Scottish landslide events between 2004 and 2007 (including one on the A83) estimated that the direct costs per event ranged from GBP400,000 to GBP1,700,000, while the direct consequential costs ranged between approximately GBP180,000 and GBP1,400,000. Given that these costs will have escalated since their original calculation and do not include indirect consequential costs, the negative consequences of landslide events are substantial. As such, more effective methods for accurate prediction of landslides will have significant benefits for the 4,000 daily users of the A83 as well as the residents and businesses in the 2,800km² area it serves. Working in collaboration with TS and its contractors, the research has had the following 3 key impacts:

(i) Improvements in the monitoring of one of Scotland’s major roads (the A83) at greatest risk from landslides. This has reduced risk of harm to road users and operators.

The Geotechnical Manager TS has summarised our period of impact: ‘ The use of innovative monitoring technologies has provided us with a new understanding of the changes on the slopes in space and time and allowed us to strategically manage the hazards and risks in a better, more informed manner that was not possible before. Specifically, locating new areas of concern prior to failure has allowed direct interventions such as the deployment of landslide survey teams from our Operating Company to assess risk.’ [ IMP1a]. TS further explains that, ‘ The monitoring systems established by Dr Bainbridge and the University of Newcastle team are not only proving their value as a key element to be built into our long-term management strategy for the Rest and Be Thankful corridor, but they have also played an active role in the day-to-day management of the present on-going landslide events’ [ IMP1b].

Impact work began in October 2015 when the Head of Ground Engineering at TRL contacted the team at Newcastle, requesting our expertise based on research from G1 published in PUB1, as they recognised the need ‘… to make some clear decisions on which instruments to keep/maintain and which to effectively abandon with full justification for decisions in either direction. [Your input] would be extremely useful to this process’ [ IMP2]. In December 2015 and January 2016, rainfall during Storm Desmond and Storm Frank triggered landslides that closed the A83 for several days with a landslide hitting a moving vehicle. The monitoring in place along with unique Newcastle-led pre-event data [ G3] allowed for quantification of the landslides and an analysis for TS of future approaches [ PUB2-3]. In the wake of these events, the Newcastle researchers were commissioned to lead a TS-directed SRRB project [ G4] to install novel low-cost seismometers and develop feature tracking time-lapse cameras, building on earlier research findings [ PUB1,3-4], reported in [ PUB5-6].

In October/November 2018 Storms Ali and Callum triggered landslides at the “Rest and Be Thankful” hotspot that closed the A83 and the Old Military Road (a local diversion used to eliminate the maximum possible 60-mile diversion) below it for 9 days. 10 days prior to these events, Newcastle’s team alerted TS to precursory movement on the slope, detected using the developed time-lapse feature tracking research, leading to direct interventions in management of the road. TS state: ‘ This warning allowed us to assess the works in progress at that time for the installation of a further phase of physical mitigation measures, resulting in the rearrangement of the works and traffic management measures to ensure that traffic was not held stationary beneath areas of specific concern on the slope. Landslides then occurred as forecast, closing the road but without harm to road users and operators.’ [ IMP1a].

Continued analyses of time-lapse imagery datasets revealed that the event was a sequence of 13 landslides, each of which could have their timing relative to our measured rainfall quantified and categorised into those resulting from long duration rainfall and those resulting from short intense rainfall. Continued updates were requested by the stakeholders, of which TS said: ‘ In the immediate aftermath of the landslide, this research then provided key information on the sequence of events, volumes, and timings and identified residual areas of instability that we then rapidly communicated to our Operating Companies enabling them to operate more safely and effectively’. [ IMP1a]

Based on the evidence of the efficacy of Newcastle’s approach, TS, after a stakeholder meeting in November 2020 discussing urgent actions for the A83 (disseminated as IMP3), have since funded and maintained 4 deformation-tracking dSLR cameras using Newcastle’s processing methodology and have also adopted the resilient site-wide Wi-Fi, initially funded through G6-7. The operating company, BEAR, routinely request updates on the research team’s live-processed rainfall data in order to make data-informed choices on landslide patrols and road opening/closing. These choices form the basis of daily stakeholder (and press) information releases, including providing updates to TS’s more than 300,000 followers on Twitter [ IMP4]. A Met. Office report commissioned by TS [ IMP5a-b] in the aftermath of Storms Ali and Callum, when reporting on the Newcastle rainfall system for predicting periods of enhanced landslide activity to forecast raised threat levels, concluded that: ‘… the Newcastle gauge is the one utilised most by those on site…’ and ‘…so forecasting values which relate best to this [Newcastle system] would be the most beneficial’ [ IMP5b]. This was taken forward in 2019/20 and our rainfall sensors are now used operationally to determine on-slope rainfall amounts. The deformation tracking/time-lapse camera and rainfall sensor network data are both hosted live where they can be accessed by the Operating Company and their subcontractors to inform their decision-making on a day-to-day basis [ IMP4]. Rainfall data are now also being used in a ‘shadow trial’ to refine the operation of warning lights for road users after evaluating thresholds that trigger the alerts [ PUB6].

After the August 2020 landslides, which resulted in the A83 being closed for 125 days, a further stakeholder meeting used our research developments [ IMP3 slides 20/21] and a key outcome was to fund the adoption and extension of this deformation monitoring [ IMP3 slide 25] to inform decision-making as to when to keep the A83 / Old Military Road open, and when to close the road for safety. Our research has developed disaster resilient live data streaming [ G6,7] now adopted by BEAR at the A83 on behalf of TS [ IMP1a,4]. We have been requested to provide training/designs to both BEAR and Geo-Rope in how these systems can be deployed and maintained, resulting in an A83 TS-funded maintenance programme [ IMP4], making ‘Newcastle University research fully operational as part of our decision making to reduce threats to road users’ [ IMP1a]. Our findings have been cited by the Chair of SRRB in Transportation Professional, the magazine of the Chartered Institution of Highways and Transportation (CIHT), with broad reach (in excess of 13,000 members) [ IMP6].

(ii) Adoption of improved monitoring and management strategy for landslide-prone sites by TS for wider Scottish road networks.

This research has effectively driven the development of new integrated and hierarchical networks of sensors [ PUB5], most of which are not conventionally used in monitoring and managing landslide hazard for acute events. The result is that the A83 is the most densely monitored slope in Scotland, at a far lower cost than more conventional systems [ IMP4]. In addition, low level (fixed interval repeat laser scanning/change detection) monitoring has been undertaken at 2 other high hazard sites across Scotland [ IMP1a].

After Storm Callum, TS instigated a Joint Technical Workshop for industry and Government stakeholders (March 2019). At this workshop, and a subsequent SRRB workshop (January 2020), the Newcastle team presented their innovative approaches to the long-term monitoring options at Scottish landslide sites. Following consultation with the key stakeholders after these events, and demonstrating the extended reach of the research impact, TS said that ‘ Following the recent events, new insights from this research have directly changed the future monitoring and management strategy for landslide-prone sites such as the Rest and Be Thankful, and now form a best-practice case for adoption to the wider road network’. [ IMP1a].

(iii) Implementation of the novel landslide monitoring system in Cumbria, alleviating risk to buildings and transport infrastructure.

Extending the reach of our research impact, in April 2018 the Newcastle team was asked by the British Mountaineering Council (BMC) to install their streaming monitoring systems at Castle Rock of Triermain in the Lake District, a popular climbing crag on land owned by United Utilities, which threatened United Utilities infrastructure, a number of houses, and the B3352. Our research on failure prediction was used to word warning signs more appropriately and alert stakeholders to increasing risk [ IMP7]. Final failure occurred in November 2018, with our monitoring cited on BBC news and the BMC website (15,700 reads [ IMP8a-c]), resulting in an invitation to share best practice monitoring in the 2019 Cumberland Geological Society Annual Lecture (Dunning). As a result, the Newcastle team were invited to assess Cumberland County Council (CCC) roads threatened by landslides to deploy our solutions; and by the British Mountaineering Council to deploy at further hazardous climbing sites. 4 sites across Cumbria are due data streaming sensors (COVID-19-delayed from agreed 2020 dates, see IMP7,9 and COVID-19 statement), to be part-funded by CCC [ IMP9].

NU’s research has directly challenged Scottish exceptionalism on racism and Islamophobia by providing substantial qualitative evidence of serious and widespread issues in Scottish society. While its geographic focus is Scotland, its significance means that the research has had reach beyond Scotland to the rest of the UK. The research has (A) changed the understanding of politicians and policymakers; (B) equipped educators with knowledge and skills to address Islamophobia; and (C) enabled journalists to report on Islam and Muslims in a sensitive and well-informed manner.

A. Changing the political discourse

NU’s research has directly contributed to and changed political discourse on racism and Islamophobia by: (i) prompting the establishment in 2017 of the first ever Cross-Party Group (CPG) on Tackling Islamophobia in the Scottish Parliament; (ii) shaping the definition of Islamophobia of the UK All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on British Muslims; and (iii) influencing two House of Lords inquiries. In more detail:

(i) In 2017, Hopkins’ team shared with an experienced elected MSP (Member of the Scottish Parliament) its report about Muslim youth and political participation (culminating in PUB4). This rapidly led to the establishment of Scotland‘s first ever CPG on Tackling Islamophobia. The MSP writes:

Peter [Hopkins] and I have worked together to establish a Cross-Party Group on Tackling Islamophobia; Peter’s research has been key to shaping the agenda of this group. (IMP1)

This CPG has the largest membership of any CPG and is one of the most active in the Scottish Parliament. The issue of Islamophobia was raised through four Parliamentary questions written by Hopkins and submitted through the MSP’s Parliamentary office (IMP1), focusing on Hopkins’ team’s specific findings on Islamophobia: the importance of its omission from key initiatives on race (PUB1); its gendered nature (PUB3); and its vital role in political participation (PUB4). In 2019/20, through the CPG, Hopkins led the first ever Public Inquiry on Islamophobia in Scotland. The inquiry included a survey devised by Hopkins to focus on key issues identified in PUBS1–4. In February 2020, the findings of the Public Inquiry received widespread media coverage in the main Scottish newspapers, BBC Radio Scotland and BBC News Scotland. In 2019, the Public Inquiry was cited at Westminster by the Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), in oral evidence to the Home Affairs Committee Islamophobia Inquiry (IMP2).

Hopkins’ contribution to changing the political discourse directly influenced the wording of the question on religion (Islam) in the next Scottish Population Census (IMP3). He recommended that, to maximise clear demographic information, an option be included to indicate Islamic affiliation in relation to ‘denomination or school’. This was agreed by the National Records of Scotland Census team and is now incorporated into the Census form.

(ii) Extending its reach beyond Scotland, Hopkins’ submission to the UK APPG on British Muslims is cited nine times in its report, Islamophobia Defined (IMP4). This makes points about the risks of not adopting a definition and about ‘ those mistaken for being Muslim’ (PUB2; PUB4). It cites Hopkins’ recommendation to ‘ overtly illustrate the nuances and complexities of Islamophobia’. Further influence is shown by a quote: ‘ Hopkins opposes the idea of the index [proposed to measure the intensity of Islamophobia] because “this runs the risk of particular Islamophobic incidents being regarded as more or less serious than others and potentially therefore more or less worthy of attention”’.

The Leader of the SNP confirmed that the Parliamentary Group of the SNP in Westminster adopted the APPG’s definition, like most parties in Westminster (IMP2). To date at least 22 local authorities (covering a population of almost 12,000,000) and over 30 universities across the UK also adopted it. Hopkins’ research on Islamophobia was cited on 25 April 2019 in First Minister’s Questions (IMP2), when the MSP urged the First Minister to endorse the APPG’s definition. This intervention led to the First Minister and all political parties in Scotland doing so on 26 April 2019 (IMP2).

Locally, the findings of NU’s research directly informed a Local Councillor’s motion that Newcastle City Council adopt the APPG definition of Islamophobia (IMP5; PUBS1–4). Following a public lecture by Hopkins (29 November 2019, attendance of 400), it was unanimously resolved: to adopt the APPG definition; to express support for the Home Affairs Committee Islamophobia inquiry; and to write to all mosques and Islamic community organisations in the City to inform them of the Council’s adoption of the motion. This led to an invitation to Hopkins to serve on the advisory group of Citizens UK and to subsequently inform their report on everyday hate in the UK (IMP5).

As a result of his work creating the CPG and informing the APPG definition, Hopkins also worked with TellMAMA (the leading UK service measuring anti-Muslim prejudice and supporting victims of Islamaphobia) to set up its first advisory group in Scotland. Hopkins also led on setting up its first advisory group in North East England, subsequently publishing a report co-authored with TellMAMA on Islamophobia in the North East (IMP5). Hopkins was also invited to serve as a key panellist on the ongoing North East England Chamber of Commerce Commission into Ethnicity and Discrimination. Four Parliamentary questions written by Hopkins, based on findings from the co-authored report with TellMAMA (IMP5), were addressed by Newcastle North’s MP in Westminster.

(iii) NU’s research on Islamophobia has impacted on UK political affairs. Findings from GRANT2 directly informed and are cited in two House of Lords Committee reports (IMP6):

Citizenship and Civic Engagement Committee report – cites NU’s evidence that:

gender and everyday sexism should be considered as a barrier to the participation of British Muslim women in public life… we also observed a growing confidence in young Muslim women, with a number of participants engaging in politics and taking on publicly prominent roles. There are positive signs, then, that young Muslim women are rejecting and challenging gender prejudices and becoming visibly involved in politics and campaigning. (p.29)

The results of the UK Government’s response to NU’s recommendations on gender and everyday sexism from GRANT2 included: (i) project funding of GBP5,000,000 to increase women’s democratic participation; (iii) a new programme to encourage young women from diverse backgrounds to become leaders; and (iii) a National Statement of Expectations on engagement with marginalised communities (IMP6).

Democracy and Digital Technologies report – refers specifically to Hopkins’ finding that abuse and hate speech deter people from participating in public life:

Professor Peter Hopkins … told us about his research with young Muslims in the UK, which showed that young people engaged with democracy through social media also received racist and Islamophobic abuse. This had the effect of making them feel more marginalised and less inclined to participate. As discussed above the societal harm to democracy is closely linked to the harm these children experience as individuals. (p.39)

The UK Government’s response to this finding indicated that companies are required to have appropriate systems to deal with harmful online content and that the regulator, Ofcom, may take action against those that fail in their duty of care in this respect. It confirmed that the report will inform its response to the Online Harms White Paper Consultation (IMP6).

Equipping educators

NU’s research played a pivotal role in equipping educators to better respond and react to issues relating to racism and Islamophobia by: (i) advising a Scottish Parliament inquiry about prejudice-based bullying; (ii) informing national educational guidance on anti-Muslim prejudice; and (iii) improving anti-racist educational practice. In more detail:

(i) Based on Hopkins’ research, in 2018 the Education Institute for Scotland (EIS) published guidance on challenging anti-Muslim prejudice. This EIS guidance directly cites both PUB4 and a briefing paper written by the GRANT2 team in 2014. It notes specifically that ‘ Muslim members, and members from BME backgrounds, who are sometimes misrecognised as Muslim, are subject to similar prejudice’, citing PUB3 (IMP7). The EIS is the largest Scottish teaching union and has a key role as one of Scotland’s most respected voices in education (almost 55,000 teachers and lecturers in Scotland are members, covering 80% of the entire profession).

(ii) NU’s research directly informed the Scottish Parliament’s Equality and Human Rights Committee inquiry into school bullying (IMP8). Its final report notes the ‘ need for teacher training on prejudice-based bullying and harassment with a focus on the content of that training in order to improve the confidence of teachers’. In June 2018, findings from NU’s research from GRANT2 were included in oral evidence as part of a review for this inquiry. The 2018–19 annual committee report responded to the issue of racist and Islamophobic bullying by noting the need for ‘ preventative and reactive measures against bullying through more support and training… evidence from our draft budget scrutiny showed £4,000,000 has been invested so that schools can collect better data on types of bullying’.

In March 2017 at the University of Edinburgh, more than 120 teachers and educationalists across Scotland participated in training on race equality and Scottish school education. All reported that their knowledge of how to recognise and respond to issues of Islamophobia in their classrooms had improved significantly: ‘ I’m now more equipped to recognise the problems of misrecognition and act to fix them’ (IMP8). The training included insights about Islamophobia and misrecognition drawn directly from GRANT2/PUB3.

The Depute Head of Shawlands Academy (one of Scotland’s most ethnically diverse secondary schools) states that NU’s research ‘ had a direct impact on the management. It didn’t just embolden our anti-racist strategy, it shaped it. It has changed practice, it has informed CPD for staff’. A research protocol co-produced in 2016–17 by Hopkins and a group of 25 ethnic minority Shawlands students has been used since 2016 by Glasgow City Council to regulate all researchers wishing to access pupils in city schools for participation in research. This protocol is regarded by the National Coordinating Centre for Public Engagement as an important resource for supporting quality engagement (IMP9).

Motivated both by participating in GRANT2 and by co-producing the research protocol, in 2017 students from Shawlands were inspired to work with ‘Young Scot’ (a national information and citizenship service for young people) on developing young people’s vision for race equality. This made 22 recommendations and contributed 40 ideas for change to promote race equality. When asked about the impact of NU’s research on pupils, the Depute Head exclaimed: ‘ Phenomenal! Absolutely phenomenal! I think that the whole process had a profound effect upon those young people’ (IMP9).

(iii) Reaching beyond Scotland and utilising NU’s research, a specific case study on Islamophobia features in an animated video produced by Hopkins and used since 2018 by Northumbria Police as a mandatory component of their training for Hate Crime Champions. To date, those who have participated (IMP9) are from school and colleges (more than 5,200 students and 150 staff), local authorities (150 staff) and voluntary sector groups (125 staff), as well as 200 police officers and 40 front-office staff.

C. Changing journalistic practice

NU research changed journalistic practice on reporting on Islam and Muslims. In late 2019, Hopkins and Uzma Mir co-authored Scotland’s first set of media guidelines for reporting on Islam and Muslims. This draws directly on NU research findings on media representation (PUB1), misrecognition (PUB2; PUB3) and political participation (PUB4). The guidelines were adopted by the National Union of Journalists (NUJ) (membership over 38,000). The lead organiser of NUJ’s Scotland office noted that the guidelines are ‘ informed, detailed and take into account the working practices of journalists’ and are thus key to ‘ developing responsible, informed journalism in this area’. Although published only recently, the guidelines have already impacted on and changed the practice of key users. The lead news and feature writer at The Courier newspaper (daily readership 35,000) noted: ‘ these guidelines provide a valuable checklist on ensuring that a piece is accurate and avoids inadvertently offending members of Scottish society’ (IMP10).

Demonstrating the extended reach of NU’s research, these media guidelines have been officially adopted by IMPRESS (Independent Monitor for the Press), the UK regulator of over 150 digital and print publications that reach more than 15,000,000 readers each month (IMP10).

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Working with these key stakeholder groups (politicians, educators and journalists) has not only debunked the notion that Islamophobia is not an issue in Scotland; it has gone much further in addressing the effects of Islamophobia through informing policy and practice both there and across the UK. As the MSP notes (see IMP1):

For too long Islamophobia was seen as an English problem which made it almost impossible to tackle politically and in everyday practice in Scotland. Peter Hopkins’ research has been instrumental in providing the evidence needed to challenge this perspective and address the effects of Islamophobia in the country. This has directly led to the formation of the first ever CPG and the subsequent adoption of a common definition of Islamophobia which means we are now equipped to tackle its effects.

CURDS’ research has resulted in improvements to subnational economic development and decentralisation policy to address better the UK’s large spatial economic inequalities and highly centralised governance in 3 connected ways:

1. Improved national level devolution policy for England by defining the aims, criteria, and forms of the decentralisation of powers and resources

CURDS’ research has significantly influenced UK Government perspectives on devolution and has provided new evidence to enable improved evidence-based decision-making and more coherent national policies to address the problems of spatial economic inequalities and over-centralised governance. Between 2014 and 2016, 2 key House of Commons CLG Committee inquiries into the department’s spending and policies drew substantially on CURDS’ research (cited 13 times) (IMP1a, b) to recommend the creation of a clearer framework for devolution. This proposal was acknowledged in the UK Government’s 2016 response in seeking to develop its “broad, enabling framework” to provide a “good basis for the devolution agenda to continue to evolve over time” (IMP1c). Reflecting CURDS’ critique and suggested reforms (PUB1, 2), the new framework developed since 2016 represented a substantial change beyond the UK Government’s ad hoc, bottom-up, and deal-by-deal approach towards greater clarity in the rationale, aims, monitoring, and evaluation of devolution policy. CURDS’ role in this policy change is further evidenced by the UK Government’s adoption of the language of a decentralisation “roadmap” in 2020 – a central recommendation of CURDS’ research – by the Minister for Regional Growth and Local Government (IMP2). The Area Director of the UK Cities and Local Growth Unit responsible for local growth and devolution in England acknowledged “the significant impacts” of CURDS’ research helped “to strengthen and improve the evidence-base and robustness of the rationales for devolution and local growth policy” and “provided the arguments and rationales which have shaped thinking…in formulating the UK Government’s Devolution White Paper” (IMP3). This evidence demonstrates the reach and significance of CURDS’ research in shaping this ‘road map’ which will be published as the UK Government’s forthcoming Devolution White Paper for England (planned publication 2021 – see Mitigation Statement). CURDS’ research has substantially influenced other high-profile initiatives shaping national government policy for subnational economic development and decentralisation. In 2019, CURDS was invited by the Chair of the UK2070 Commission’s independent national inquiry into city and regional inequalities in the UK to provide evidence to inform its proposals for devolution in England. They acknowledged the “substantive impacts” of CURDS’ research (PUB4) in forming its “arguments, discussions and representations to the UK Government in framing the forthcoming White Paper for a clearer road-map for a structured and systematic approach to devolution in England” to progress the UK Government’s ‘levelling up’ agenda to reduce spatial economic inequalities (IMP4).

1. Strengthened subnational governance by clarifying the purpose and roles of Local Enterprise Partnerships in England and enhancing their accountability and performance monitoring

On the basis of his “expertise in the area of English devolution”, Pike was invited to be an Expert Panel Member for the National Audit Office’s (NAO) 2016 LEP study scrutinising public spending for the UK Parliament “ to advise and challenge our work from early conceptual design, to emerging findings and finally draft report” (IMP5). This significant impact is evidenced in the NAO’s 2016 report. It uses issues identified by CURDS’ research in its analysis and recommendations, specifically: assessing the role of LEPs in tackling spatial economic inequalities; strengthening their evaluation; reducing their dependence upon local government; increasing their resources; and enhancing their accountability and transparency (IMP6). Pike’s contributions led to his invitation to provide oral evidence to the House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts’ 2016 inquiry scrutinising value for money in national cities and local growth policy. His inputs directly informed 6 of the final report’s 9 recommendations (IMP7a) that were supported and implemented by the UK Government in strengthening its LEP National Assurance Framework (IMP7b). Pike was then engaged by the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), responsible for ensuring the economy works for people and places across the UK, to advise on their 2018 review of LEPs. Directly taking up key findings from CURDS’ pathbreaking national research, BEIS’ policy changed to clarify LEPs’ purpose and role, streamline their geographies, strengthen their accountability, governance and performance monitoring, and support their capacity building. As a result of these changes, the NAO’s later 2019 study concluded BEIS had improved LEP governance but needed to strengthen further their accountability. The Head of Local Growth Analysis in BEIS acknowledged the impact of CURDS’ “longstanding research expertise”, “noteworthy contribution” and “valuable insights” on subnational economic development and devolution policy informing the review and policy change (IMP8). Putting CURDS’ research into practice to generate wider benefits for LEPs across England, Kempton’s 2019 work directly impacted Greater Lincolnshire LEP’s (GLLEP) strategy making it “ more innovative and more inclusive” to “ensure our strategy will impact on and benefit a wider range of citizens and businesses” (IMP9).

1. Upgraded design and delivery of strategies, policies and evaluations by assessing City and Regional Growth Deals in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland

In England since 2013, CURDS’ pioneering City Deals research directly impacted on the development of the UK Government’s approach to Devolution, City and Regional Growth Deals devolving powers and resources to increase economic development and reduce spatial economic inequalities. Resulting from CURDS’ research, the new deals were upgraded to incorporate clearer strategy and stronger appraisal, monitoring, and evaluation frameworks to improve their delivery and effectiveness. The reach and significance of CURDS’ research impacts extended beyond England to strengthen independent appraisal and evaluation in the deals introduced by the UK and devolved governments since 2014 (IMP10a). From 44 written responses, O’Brien was selected to provide oral evidence to the Scottish Parliament Local Government and Communities Committee which was cited and used in the final report recommendations (IMP10b). As a direct and substantive impact, the deal evaluation frameworks were changed to monitor and assess the potential displacement effects of deals in diverting economic growth and/or job creation between deal and non-deal areas (IMP10b). This change ensured the deals were better focused on maximising their economic development impact and value for public money. In Wales from 2015, CURDS’ research improved the design, development, and implementation of new City and Regional Growth Deals in Cardiff, Swansea and North Wales – covering 3,000,000 people and economies of GBP60,000,000,000 – by providing clearer and stronger rationales for their strengthened accountability, scrutiny, monitoring, and evaluation arrangements (IMP11a). The Wales TUC (Trade Union Congress), representing 48 unions and over 400,000 workers in Wales, confirmed that CURDS’ research ensured that such deal-making was “better understood by decision makers, particularly in local government” (IMP11b). In Northern Ireland from 2019, CURDS’ research helped the design and implementation of two new City Region Deals in Belfast and Derry City and Strabane, covering populations of 1,300,000 and economies of GBP30,000,000,000. Of the 106 participants from the public, private and civic sectors in a workshop on ‘Learning from City Deals’ in Belfast in 2019 organised by CURDS, UK Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) and Belfast City Region Deal, a substantial majority committed to changes to improve their focus, formalise governance structures, and leverage private sector investment (IMP12a). The UK Cities and Local Growth Unit Deputy Director acknowledged “the fresh perspectives” from CURDS’ research had “positively supported the agenda and shaped thinking, in particular in regard to appraisal of business cases, monitoring and evaluation” and helped “equip the local partners with the best knowledge and tools to deliver city and growth deals that will transform their regions” (IMP12b). The Belfast City Region Deal Programme Director stated that the impact of CURDS’ research was “the confidence it gave us to have a city deal that was transformative” (IMP12c).

The research has had most significant impact on the implementation of FVCT’s Sustainable Harvesting Programme through developments in harvester training and practice. This has improved the sustainability of wildflower harvesting across the 75,000ha the programme covers. FVCT and the harvesters it works with have therefore been the primary and intended beneficiaries. The research has had additional impact by creating a social network of harvesters that has facilitated humanitarian relief during the COVID-19 crisis. Extending the reach of impact, the success of developments in harvester training and practice has shaped a wider regional government strategy for the sustainable harvesting of flowers.

A programme of work, largely funded by the ESRC, was developed by the research team in partnership with FVCT between 2013 and 2020 to respond to the challenges of sustainable harvesting identified by the research. This involved an ESRC Knowledge Exchange grant (2013 to 2014) and ESRC Impact Acceleration Account funding (2015 to 2019). The partnership has been significant for FVCT’s continued development as a Global South NGO executing a sustainability agenda in the context of financial pressure and resource constraints. Beneficiaries of impact are: FVCT, the suppliers signed up to the SHP, the harvesters, and the Western Cape government. The programme of work resulted in the production of a first-of-its-kind multi-lingual field guidebook and a version of the guide as a mobile i-fynbos app for guiding and recording harvesting. These tools were co-developed by the research team and FVCT in 2016 and 2018 respectively. The field guidebook has a double function of providing information on species vulnerability and the principles of sustainable picking practices for 41 of the most harvested species and doing so in the most relevant languages to maximise understanding and uptake of the sustainable harvesting principles. The i-Fynbos app uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to record and trace harvesting of wildflowers in accordance with the Sustainable Harvesting Code of Practice. Impacts are as follows:

1. Improvements in harvesters’ understanding of threats to fynbos and the principles of sustainable harvesting, which are now applied in practice.

The ‘Field Guide for the Sustainable Harvesting of Wildflowers’ is written in Afrikaans, English and isi-Xhosa and provides information on fynbos, the threats to fynbos, and FVCT’s Sustainable Harvesting Code of Practice. Since its launch, FVCT has given each harvesting team in the SHP a copy of the guidebook (IMP 1). The guides have changed the nature of training resources by making fynbos vulnerability information and the code of practice more accessible. As FVCT reports, “ The development and publishing of the first field guide for best harvesting practices is a regular tool used for training. The success of training using a person’s first language has resulted in the organisation using this strategy for all our subsequent training materials” (IMP 2).

Between 3 May 2017 and 18 October 2019, 138 harvesters including a mix of Afrikaans, Xhosa, and English speakers across 13 supplying firms, received training from FVCT on threats to fynbos, the importance of fynbos conservation, and the Sustainable Harvesting Code of Practice using the multi-lingual guide (IMP 3).

A training evaluation exercise conducted by the research team with FVCT in February 2020 evidenced improvements in harvesters’ awareness and understanding of the main threats to fynbos, including species vulnerability and the principles of sustainable harvesting that are now being put into practice more rigorously. This evaluation involved face-to-face interviews with 31 harvesters (representing a 22% sample of those trained). The evaluation showed that 100% of the interviewees found that training and materials in their own language was fundamental to understanding and applying sustainable picking practice. All interviewees said that since the training they are now also comfortable understanding the vulnerability of key species and threats to fynbos. Of those not already familiar with the code of practice, all explained that following the training they understood it more clearly, which is improving harvesting and making it more compliant with the Sustainable Harvesting Code of Practice – ‘o ur practices have changed very much since the training’ (harvesting team) (IMP 3).

The evaluation extended to an in-field assessment to demonstrate the improvements to sustainable harvesting practice made by the training. This took place in Vierfontyn, which had been harvested for the species Brunia laevis during November 2019 by a team who had received training in June 2019. Old cuts showed evidence of some non-compliance before the training, but assessment of 3 sample plots using the i-fynbos app to record the findings showed 100% compliance with the Sustainable Harvesting Code of Practice since the training (IMP 3). In terms of significance, this has improved the application of the Sustainable Harvesting Code of Practice and has thereby strengthened the SHP across South Africa’s Overberg region.

2. Improvements in the monitoring of compliance with the Sustainable Harvesting Code of Practice.

As a result of the research identifying the challenges of data collection on harvesting practices, and in addition to the improvements to sustainable harvesting in practice, FVCT is now also introducing rigorous in-field monitoring and recording the compliance of picking teams. The purpose of this is to evidence sustainable harvesting to domestic and international retailers who need to demonstrate their sustainability credentials to consumers and shareholders. Between July 2017 and January 2018, field data were collected by FVCT on an unprecedented scale covering 25 species and 1,218 plant samples harvested by 9 picking teams in the SHP. The data were analysed in May 2020, showing that all teams sampled received a compliance score of greater than 80%, with more than 50% achieving 87% or higher (IMP 4). This monitoring was conducted using our i-fynbos app, which has become a key capacity-building tool of the SHP, with 80 harvesters receiving training in its use during 2019 (IMP 5).

3. Facilitation of humanitarian relief for harvesters during the COVID-19 crisis through the social network created by the sustainable harvesting training programme.

The harvester training, underpinned by the research, has also created the social network through which FVCT has communicated with harvesters during the COVID-19 crisis. The research team collaborated with FVCT on a telephone survey of harvesters in April and May 2020 to establish the economic effects on livelihoods and to connect those in urgent need with relief. Harvesters across 6 towns and 9 harvesting teams responded with urgent needs. In May, as a result, immediate response was focused on coordinating relief through regional humanitarian organisations and delivering food parcels to 33 families (IMP 6). The survey also highlighted areas of ongoing vulnerability for FVCT to address, including marginalisation of overseas migrant and seasonal workers and those in remote locations with limited access to transport. Meeting urgent needs and identifying broader vulnerabilities of the harvester community are important as the wildflower sector and FVCT cope with the immediate social and economic challenges of the crisis, and as they prepare to recover.

4. The above improvements to the SHP are now underpinning a Western Cape Government strategy for a business-focused Sustainable Flower Harvesting Assurance System integrated into a provincial-wide natural resource products Community of Practice.

In terms of broader reach, the field guide, i-Fynbos app, and multi-lingual harvester training are components of the SHP that are now parts of a strategy for a Western Cape government department business proposal. The Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning identified a need for a wider Sustainable Harvesting Assurance System operating across the Cape province with reach beyond the SHP. It called on industry and conservation organisations to explore this. FVCT collaborated with consultants, Tomorrow Matters Now (TOMA-Now), to conduct a business and public consultation exercise, and TOMA-Now produced a plan on behalf of the Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning based on the findings and recommendations. The plan was published on 15 March 2019 to scale up FVCT’s SHP into a Sustainable Flower Harvesting Assurance System – “The principles of the SHP inform the foundation for the development of a more robust assurance system that is in line with evolving market and supply chain needs, as well as being inclusive of harvesters that operate outside of the scope of the SHP” (page 13) (IMP 7). The proposal is to use and develop our tools and approaches as part of a larger and more business-focused assurance system through a formalised Community of Practice involving the regulator, CapeNature, Cape Flora, and South African retailers, Pick’n’Pay and Woolworths. This Community of Practice and approach will extend beyond the flower sector to incorporate a wider range of natural resource products.

Supporting policy design and analysis in the UK

It is widely recognized that TTWAs are the ‘gold standard’ definition of the UK’s functional economic areas. Functional areas such as LMAs reflect the geography of local economies, and this makes them valued for place-based policy because most of the impact of a policy intervention in a TTWA can be expected to occur within that boundary. TTWAs are an official statistical geography of the ONS, who plan to work with Newcastle when updating TTWAs following the 2021 Census. ONS continues to depend on TTWAs for the publication of a range of official statistics on local economic conditions. These datasets are extensively downloaded by policy-makers and other users, who value TTWAs because they are the only areas that provide a “ statistically consistent geography for the whole country” [IMP1].

The significance of TTWAs for place-based policy interventions is evidenced by government guidance on making the case for public investments. HM Treasury’s Green Book sets out how to appraise policies, programmes and projects, and it specifies the use of TTWAs where local labour market analysis is needed to calculate place-based employment effects [IMP2]. The UK Government’s Head of Geography Profession observes more generally that TTWAs “ are an important part of the tool kit for analysts across the UK seeking to analyse differences in the UK economy between different areas …[including] government users wanting to use a statistical geography that provides a functional economic area” [IMP3].

Changing international organisations’ understanding of, and policy on, defining LMAs

The Newcastle method for defining LMAs, the basis of the 2001-based TTWAs, was recently recognised as ‘best practice’ at an international scale. Until 2020 neither Eurostat nor the OECD had recommended a method of defining LMAs to their member states, who together cover most of the world’s economic activity. However economic development policy-makers in many countries have increasingly queried the ‘default’ use of administrative areas for policy and instead recognized that adopting the use of “functional areas can enhance the analysis of policy challenges, the appropriate design of policy action, and the delivery of positive outcomes for residents” [IMP4 (p.17) ].

In its 2020 report European harmonised Labour Market Areas: methodology on functional geographies with potential, Eurostat summarised the findings of several years’ co-ordinated cross-national research in numerous countries. The research involved parallel analyses in European countries with contrasting geographical conditions (and/or commuting datasets very different to the UK’s). The conclusion was that the Newcastle method’s 4 adjustable parameters enabled countries beyond the UK to define appropriate LMAs. Using the same method in each country enabled a “harmonised” system of sufficiently comparable LMA definitions to be produced across the continent. The Newcastle method defined LMAs whose boundaries matched the “social and economic reality at which European decisions and projects need to be targeted” [IMP5 (p.8) ].

Also in 2020 the OECD published the report Delineating Functional Areas in All Territories that drew conclusions from research undertaken following calls from several member states. The report states that LMAs “are necessary for collecting and publishing labour market statistics in a coherent and consistent manner” [IMP4 (p.15) ]. The research had assessed various approaches to the definition of LMAs in order to identify one method to recommend. A crucial factor in selecting the recommended method was that it should be relevant to all areas and this militated against those well-established approaches to LMA definitions that focus exclusively on more urbanised areas. A policy using purely urban LMA definitions will clearly leave ‘off the map’ more rural and remote areas.

Whereas urban-centred functional area definitions only take account of commuting flows into larger cities from surrounding areas, with the Newcastle method every flow in every direction is considered in the analysis. The result of this more holistic approach of the Newcastle method is that its definition of LMAs covers a country completely, from metropolitan areas through to remote rural regions. These advantages over urban-centred definitions of LMAs (in which many relevant flows are ignored, and many areas then omitted) are highlighted in the 2019 report by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office documenting their adoption of the Newcastle method to define their national set of LMAs [IMP6 (Figure G1) ] (see below).

The OECD report sees the Newcastle method as a “more comprehensive conceptualisation of functional areas” [IMP4 (p.21) ]. This leads to the report’s recommendation of the method, whose key attribute is consistently defining a set of LMAs that is “based on functional criteria in terms of commuting flows and [that] covers the entire national territory” [IMP4 (p.46) ].This evaluation was based on research that applied the Newcastle method to commuting patterns in numerous European countries as well as Korea and most of North America.

The significance of the way a set of statistical areas is defined lies in the fact that this affects the comparability of those statistics. For example if one area (e.g. Camden) only includes one part of a city while another area (e.g. Carlisle) includes not only the city but much of its surrounding rural area, then comparisons of economic data for the two are not meaningful. National or international policy decisions depend on the analysis of statistics for genuinely comparable areas. It is this policy context that is explicitly stated as the motivation for the reports by Eurostat and the OECD which both recommend the Newcastle method of defining LMAs to their member countries. In setting out this agenda the OECD asserted that “[a] standardised definition of functional areas, as proposed by this report, offers great benefits to policy makers and citizens alike” [IMP4 (p.10) ].

With the widespread definition of harmonised sets of LMAs, more meaningful cross-national analyses at a regional scale become feasible for international organisations such as the OECD and Eurostat. The definition of comparable LMAs in many countries would also fulfil the objective set in 2019 by the United Nations to create “common geographies for the dissemination of statistics” [IMP7 (p.24) ]. Common geographies enable valid comparisons between areas for “decision-making processes within and between countries” (p.vii) and this calls for “uniformly assigned boundaries” (p.24), with the United Nations explicitly citing functional areas there as a geography for which consistently defined boundaries are needed. Eurostat and the OECD recommending the Newcastle method is a key step in this direction.

Earlier non-UK uses of the Newcastle method for statistical and/or policy purposes

The 2020 reports by Eurostat and the OECD were released after several member countries had already used the Newcastle method independently. The earliest demonstration of the Newcastle method’s transferability was provided in Italy when its national statistical institute Istat used it in 2015 to define the Italian LMAs that are called Sistemi Locali. In that report’s Introduction, Eurostat’s Director General argues that these definitions showed that the Newcastle method offers a “transparent, reproducible, consistent and policy-independent bottom-up method of [defining] comparable Labour Market Areas for the EU” [IMP8 (p.13) ].

Policy uses of Sistemi Locali include the 2017 selection of areas for funding under Law 181/89, with hundreds of millions of euros per year targeted at areas hit by industrial crises [IMP9]. More recently the Sistemi Locali have also been used to analyse geographical factors in the uneven impact of the COVID19 pandemic across Italy [IMP10 (section 2.1) ].

Other policy applications of the Newcastle method include its use where no suitable LMAs have been defined by that country’s national statistical institute. In one example, Norway’s regional policy agency commissioned research which drew on the Newcastle method in the 2019 definition of the “BA-regioner” set of LMAs that the agency needed for policy purposes [IMP11]. Another case is the Rural Economic Development Zones (REDZ) policy in Ireland. The government in 2016 allocated several million euros for projects whose spatial framework is a new set of LMAs defined with the Newcastle method solely for this purpose. It is notable that this policy use of functional areas was explicitly welcomed by the government Minister: “[o]ne of the strengths of the REDZ initiative is that it encourages Local Authorities and other stakeholders to work across administrative boundaries in neighbouring counties” [IMP12].

To date the European countries where official statistics are published for LMAs defined with a form of the Newcastle method are Denmark, France, Italy, Switzerland and the UK [IMP13]. Other countries involved in the Eurostat or the OECD analyses of the Newcastle method’s transferability are Spain, Sweden, Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Canada, Estonia, Korea, Mexico, and the USA, while the method was also used for a study of cross-border LMAs that involved Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands [IMP13].