Impact case study database

Route to Impact

Shortt and Pearce’s impact-related activities were developed and co-designed with, variously, colleagues in NHS Scotland, Scottish Government, and advocacy organisations (ASH-Scotland/Alcohol Focus Scotland) with a view to developing approaches to addressing the over provision of alcohol and tobacco products in Scotland. Through this work, they have had impact in two key areas: influencing key national approaches to addressing alcohol and tobacco harm and influencing the alcohol licensing process and decision-making outcomes.

Influencing national strategies to addressing alcohol and tobacco harm

The research has contributed directly to government-level strategic approaches to addressing the harms of alcohol and tobacco in Scotland. This has been achieved through targeted efforts to raise awareness and understanding of the links between outlet density and mortality and morbidity (drawing on research findings detailed in references 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, and 3.5), including: invitation to provide evidence to the Local Government and Regeneration Parliamentary Committee when discussing the Air Weapons and Licensing (Scotland) Bill (Shortt); presenting research findings to key policymakers in Scottish Government, including invited presentations (Pearce) to the Tobacco Control: Research and Evaluation Sub-Group (Scottish Ministerial Working Group on Tobacco Control); invited members (Pearce & Shortt) of the NHS Scotland Advisory Group, Tobacco Pricing and Availability (in 2018); and engaging directly with MSPs through invitations to speak at meetings of various Cross-Party Groups at the Scottish Parliament (Pearce & Shortt) [5.1].

Impact arising from these activities, building on the research detailed in sections 2 and 3, includes:

1. The evidence presented to the Licensing (Scotland) bill (explicitly drawing on References 3.1 and 3.3) was used by the MSP Labour Mid Scotland and Fife to draft an amendment that would compel the Scottish Government to develop a national register of licensed premises. In the minutes from the discussion in the final debate the MSP quotes Shortt's evidence to the committee and the team's research. As a consequence the Government promised to consult widely on the issues identified in the debate [5.2]. In a supporting letter the MSP states that ‘In my thirteen years in the Scottish Parliament I regarded the alcohol and tobacco mapping project led by Niamh Shortt and colleagues... as one of the most important pieces of hard evidence in helping deliver the Scottish Parliament’s strategic objectives for alcohol and tobacco’ [5.3].

2. The work has received two parliamentary commendations in motions lodged by MSPs and signed by a total of 36 MSPs [5.4]. In one Parliamentary Motion it was recognised that the Scottish Parliament “understands that the map (Reference 3.3) will be a valuable tool for local authorities when granting licences and deciding whether there is an overprovision of alcohol and tobacco outlets; considers that the map also provides the opportunity to empower communities by offering them better evidence of the local picture” [5.4b]. The research has also been cited in at least two Parliamentary sessions, evidencing the impact that the research has had on MSPs and government debate. In one debate, a labour MSP cited the research (References 3.1 and 3.3) stating “Recent research by Niamh Shortt of the University of Edinburgh found not only that those from our most deprived communities are more likely to die due to alcohol, but that they have access to considerably more places to buy alcohol than those in our most affluent areas.... The research was clear: we require radical policies that address inequalities, the social, political and economic drivers of poverty, and alcohol availability. Changes to alcohol licensing, labelling and advertising need to be part of any future strategies on alcohol” demonstrating a shift in the political commitment to addressing the harms of alcohol ubiquitous availability [5.5].

3. The CRESH research findings have been embedded in strategic policy development of the national public health organisation, and the key national-level advocacy organisations in the areas of alcohol and tobacco. Public Health Scotland and the Scottish Government note that the influence of the research is evidenced through: a focus on tobacco availability in the publication of the Scottish Government’s Raising Scotland’s Tobacco Free Generation (2018) (including references to References 3.1 and 3.5 in the Rapid Evidence Review used to support the publication); in setting the strategic priorities of Scotland’s newly formed national public health body (Public Health Scotland); and influencing the content of key elements of the Scottish Government’s strategy documents on addressing the harm of alcohol and tobacco (in particular, addressing availability was identified as a key policy priorities, and this new direction was heavily influenced by the team’s research (particularly References 3.1, 3.4, 3.5 and 3.6) [5.7,5.8]. Public Health Scotland have also noted that “the work has been instrumental in shaping the priorities of Public Health Scotland” and “used as an example of good working practice (impact) by Public Health Scotland” [5.7]. A supporting letter from the Head of Alcohol, Tobacco and Drugs at the Scottish Government, highlights that “The existence of CRESH and this particular work has allowed government to prioritise this aspect of tobacco control for forthcoming legislation.  This would simply not have been possible without CRESH.  It’s important to note that this work has also inspired further research and action being commissioned by Public Health Scotland and CRUK – having seen the added value and potential impact the CRESH work has had and is continuing to have”. [5.8]. This letter references key publications listed above, including 3.6 but is referring to this broad collection of work. The work was also highlighted as an “example of good working practice (impact) by Public Health Scotland” [5.8]. The webmap developed by Shortt and Pearce [3.3] has been influential in shaping policy discussions and the strategic direction of ASH Scotland, Scotland’s national charity addressing tobacco harm. The CEO, states that “The webmap you created has sparked and supported a number of policy discussions... and is a key resource in the larger jigsaw of work addressing tobacco use and related inequalities in Scotland” [5.6] .

Influencing the alcohol licensing process and decision outcomes

The team’s work has been instrumental in affecting decision-making relating to alcohol licensing in Scotland.

1. The CEO of Alcohol Focus Scotland has stated that Pearce and Shortt’s research “has been a crucial component of our work on encouraging controls on where, when and how alcohol is sold” [5.9]. AFS have used the research extensively, as detailed in the letter of support stating that “the research has had significant influence on local licensing stakeholders” [5.9]. (References 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3). This influence is evidenced below.

2. As a regulatory standard, each Licensing Board in Scotland (32 in total) is required to produce overprovision statements every four years. Of those statements published in 2019 at least 13 have specifically cited and used the data developed by Shortt and Pearce, leading to at least 4 Licensing Boards (North Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Stirling and West Dumbartonshire) formally declaring their council to be overprovided [5.9]. When an area is declared overprovided for in terms of alcohol then any further alcohol license applications in the area should normally be refused. Each of these council areas have explicitly related their overprovision decision to the research and data developed by Shortt and Pearce, including [3.1, 3.2 and 3.3]. This means that our work is helping to reshape local environments and lifeworlds with the potential to improve health.

3. Shortt and Pearce’s team have gathered evidence of local stakeholders using the CRESH research to inform licensing boards considering applications for new alcohol licences [5.9]. In at least one licensing board we have direct evidence of an alcohol licence refused based on the research. The Alcohol and Drug Partnership East Ayrshire noted that the objection was based on the CRESH research evidence stating “Wouldn’t have done it without the CRESH data and the alcohol risk environments study” [5.10], referring to [3.2].

4. The research has also been critical in shaping various local alcohol strategies, including the Edinburgh Alcohol Strategy (2017-19) Borders Alcohol and Drugs Partnership Annual Report 2017-18 and The Alcohol Policy Review 2018 Impact on Moray Report [5.9]. According to the CEO of Alcoholic Focus Scotland “CRESH’s work has been influential in AFS’s strategic thinking” [5.9] .

Route to Impact

Impact on Policy. Haszeldine played a pivotal role in advising UK, Scottish and EU governments on CCS and energy and climate policy. He is one of two academics invited onto the Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) council, advising the UK Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Energy Minister (2016-present) [5.1]. He was the sole academic member of the UK Parliamentary Advisory Group on CCS and co-author of its report to the Secretary of State for BEIS (2016) [5.2a]. Scott and Haszeldine both worked extensively with policymakers in the EU Commission and the intergovernmental North Sea Basin Task Force, and Scott was seconded in 2018/19 to the UK Committee on Climate Change to provide expert advice on Net Zero to the UK and devolved Governments. Scott also acted as an expert reviewer to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report on 1.5 °C (2018).

Technical solutions. The UoE CCS group has provided research support to the St Fergus Acorn project (https://theacornproject.uk\), the UK's leading CCS cluster, including via their CO2 SAPLING Transport Infrastructure Project described below. Acorn’s aim is to repurpose oil and gas industry expertise and infrastructure in the North-east of Scotland to the decarbonisation agenda. Haszeldine helped create NECCUS Ltd - uniquely combining industry actors in collaboration for CCS in Scotland to achieve practical construction and operation by 2024.

Impact on practitioners

UK Government industrial strategy . The 2016 report to BEIS drew on learning from [3.1] and [3.2] to inform key recommendations on strategic investment by UK Government into CCS infrastructure. Specifically, this involves separating investment in CO₂ capture and CO₂ transportation and storage, and setting up clusters of actors sharing infrastructure with the common goal of decarbonising industry, producing low-carbon hydrogen and enabling negative emissions as a key part of the lowest cost route to achieving the UK’s decarbonisation targets. “ These features are the basis of all current UK CCS developments -multiple £Bn, and many others worldwide” [5.2b].

The recommendations of the 2016 report to BEIS were “ adopted in practise by successive civil servants and UK Energy Ministers” [5.2b], culminating in the major commitment to invest in a “ new CCS Infrastructure Fund of at least £800 million” to develop CCS clusters and to support the construction of a CCS gas power plant in the March 2020 UK budget [5.3a]. Announcing this investment, the Chancellor Rishi Sunak said “Carbon capture and storage is precisely the kind of exciting technology where Britain can lead the world over the next decade. I can announce today that we will invest at least £800 million to establish two or more new carbon capture and storage clusters by 2030…The new clusters will create up to 6,000 high-skill, high-wage, low-carbon jobs in areas like Teesside, Humberside, Merseyside or St Fergus in Scotland.” [5.3b]. In November 2020 UK CCS funding was increased to GBP 1,000,000,000 in the Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution [5.3c].

European Union CCS policy and investment . Scott and Haszeldine made “ crucial and valuable contributions in shaping EU CCS policy and securing EU funding for CCS planning and development around the North Sea region” [5.4a] by applying their research on North Sea CO₂ storage and CCS projects and infrastructure development [3.1]. This resulted in projects in the UK (see UK Industry below), Netherlands, Belgium and Norway being selected as EU Projects of Common Interest eligible for EU Connecting Europe Facilty infrastructure funding (2017-2019). This has resulted in funds awarded in 2020 of EUR102,000,000 towards CO₂ infrastructure construction (PORTHOS project, Netherlands), plus EUR5,785,000; EUR 3,187,500 and EUR15,371,781 for engineering design of CO₂ infrastructures and shipping facilities linking Belgium, Netherlands, UK and Norway [5.4b] and [5.4c].

Scottish Government CCS policy. The Chief Executive of UK Committee on Climate Change and former Director of Energy and Climate for the Scottish Government writes “ Haszeldine and his team of researchers at Edinburgh University have played a major role in supporting the strategic case for CCS development and deployment in Scotland. Their work on establishing the huge potential of the North Sea’s CO₂ storage resource and the opportunities for the repurposing of oil and gas pipeline infrastructures (and industry skills) to enable lower cost deployment [of which references **[3.1]**- [3.3] are examples] has informed Scottish policymakers in embracing CCS as a crucial component of Scotland’s climate and energy strategy.” [5.5].

UK Industry . The underpinning research and engagement by Haszeldine and the UoE team supported the development of the St Fergus Acorn CCS project, in particular its CO2Sapling Transport Infrastructure Project ( https://pale-blu.com/co2-sapling). Acorn CCS is the UK’s most advanced CCS technology cluster, underpinning delivery of UK and European industry decarbonisation and low carbon hydrogen fuel [5.6a]. Acorn CCS is led by Pale Blue Dot Energy, with funding and support from industry partners Chrysaor, Shell and Total, the UK and Scottish Governments, and the European Union. It is strategically located in the North East of Scotland to repurpose legacy oil and gas pipeline and wells to CO₂ storage, rather than undertake costly decommissioning, as recommended by [3.3]. This ‘upcycling’ or infrastructure reuse enables rapid and cost-effective project delivery saving up to GBP750,000,000 compared with commissioning new pipelines and boreholes. In 2018, Acorn’s CO2Sapling project was awarded funding by the EU as a Project of Common Interest (EUR374,000) [5.6b] with co-funding from the UK (GBP175,000) and Scotland (GBP175,000) [5.6c]. In 2019 Acorn was awarded a further EUR 2,800,000 from the EU [5.6b], GBP4,8000,000 from UK BEIS CCUS Innovation Programme [5.6d], and in 2020 GBP2,700,000 from UK BEIS Hydrogen supply competition [5.6e]. Together these initiatives represent a sustained investment of GBP15,000,000 by Governments in the UK, Scotland, and EU alongside commercial partners.

Integrated action by Government, Industry, and Research practitioners. In November 2019, building out from the Acorn project, Haszeldine and SCCS helped establish the North East Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage ( www.neccus.co.uk) alliance of 33 industries (including Shell, Total, Ineos, SSE, Doosan Babcock), government agencies and research institutions as the delivery vehicle for CCS on UK industry, funded by GBP300,000 from the Scottish Government [5.6a]. In April 2019 NECCUS was awarded GBP100,000 to prepare bids to the UK Government’s Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund [5.6f].

UK Central and Devolved Government climate change legislation. Scott led the assessment of negative emissions potential for the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) 2019 which provided formal advice on Net Zero emissions to the UK, Scotland and Wales Governments [5.7a]. Informed by UoE work on negative emissions (including [3.4, 3.5, 3.6]) Scott’s “ work made a key contribution to the CCC’s Net Zero advice” [5.5] which was subsequently adopted by UK and Scottish governments passing legislation in 2019 updating their Climate Change Act targets to Net Zero by 2050 [5.7b] and Net Zero by 2045 respectively [5.7c]. The UK Budget 2020 states “ the transition to a net-zero economy by 2050 will require radical changes in every sector” and presents a range of measures to advance Net Zero action including to “ at least double the size of the energy innovation programme” and “ an additional £10 million in 2020-21 to support the design and delivery of net zero policies and programmes” [5.3a]. Furthermore, “ Vivian [Scott’s] work helped identify the importance of Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies - machines that scrub CO₂ from the air - as a permanent and potentially rapidly scalable GGR [Greenhouse Gas Removal – alternative term for negative emissions] approach. This led to the inclusion of a strategic cost discovery scale of DAC deployment in our [CCC] UK Net Zero emissions pathway.” [5.5]. This has been taken up by UK government with the announcement in June 2020 of “ up to £100 million” of funding for Direct Air Capture R&D [5.7d], and in Dec 2020 by a further GBP180,000,000 of funding for Hydrogen, CCS and Negative Emissions Technologies announced by Scottish Government [5.7e].

UN and international climate action. The group’s research outputs, including [3.5] were cited in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (IPCC) on 1.5 °C (2018) [5.8a]. The findings of the 2018 IPCC 1.5 °C Report which provide scientific assessment of the actions required to achieve the UN Paris Agreement, underpins the subsequent strengthening of climate change targets worldwide with many major economies (together around 70% of the world’s economy) following the UK in setting Net Zero emissions targets in 2019 [5.8b].

Informing the Paris Agreement

UoE research on the effect of increasing greenhouse gases on past and future climates and precipitation patterns has made vital contributions to reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since August 2013, with the team’s “ contribution to the IPCC and public policy” judged “substantial and a very good example of innovative and policy relevant research” [5.1]. The IPCC reports directly informed the international climate change negotiations which resulted in the 2015 United Nations Paris Agreement treaty on climate change. The Paris Agreement is the overarching global framework for addressing climate change, with 194 states and the European Union (EU) as signatories in 2015. Of these, 187 states and the EU, representing about 79% of global greenhouse gas emissions, have now ratified or acceded to the Agreement.

Professor Hegerl was a lead author of the IPCC’s Working Group 1 Report on Climate Change 2014 - the Physical Science Basis, published in June 2014 [5.2]. This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change since 2007 when the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released. She was selected for her role based on her scientific output on the causes of climate change. Among the IPCC authors she was selected for the author team of the AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014 [5.2], and led the section on observed emissions and changes in the climate in that report. The AR5 Synthesis Report (approved in the IPCC plenary meeting in October 2014), is the overarching and top-level document of the IPCC 5^th Assessment Report, which “ was the scientific foundation for the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” [5.3]. The Working Group 1 co-chair describes her “ seminal work that has transformed our field… you have pioneered the method to detect fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change combining observations and climate model simulations..this [method] has become one of the central pillars of climate science” [5.3]. Altogether the IPCC 5^th Assessment Report [5.2] contains 18 citations of Professor Hegerl, 2 of Professor Tett, 3 of Dr Polson and 1 of Dr Schurer (allocated to first author listed only to avoid duplication), and the Edinburgh team has provided 3 figures. In particular, an update to [3.2] provided a key figure in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, which was also reproduced in the Technical Summary as figure TFE6.1, and [3.1- 3.6] are all cited in IPCC 5th Assessment Report, or the 1.5 degree special report [5.2].

Professor Hegerl also led the Guidance Paper on attribution of observed climate change and impacts to causes for use across the IPCC’s working groups, which was widely used and cited in the overarching IPCC 5^th Assessment Report. At the approval plenary for the report involving all the United Nations country delegations she presented the keynote presentation on climate sensitivity. This was one of only four key science presentations given to directly communicate the report’s findings to full plenary session of Government representatives [5.2, 5.3]. Professor Tett was selected to be an expert review editor for the 2014 IPCC 5^th Assessment Report, Working Group I. The former Head of Science at the Department of Energy and Climate Change describes the two key issues that the UoE team highlighted – climate sensitivity [3.1,3.2] and event attribution [5.5], as “ key policy issues which affect both the scale and urgency required of the response to climate change internationally… the agreement that was reached to limit the global temperature rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels (and to aim for as close to 1.5C as possible) and achieve net zero emissions in the second part of the 21^st Century, drew directly on this and similar work” [5.1].

Following the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requested advice from the IPCC on the target of limiting climate warming to 1.5 degrees C. The resulting 2018 landmark IPCC special report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C (1.5C Report), arguably one of the most important and influential reports in the IPCC’s history, cited four papers from UoE climate researchers, with findings from [3.5] applied directly in the calculation of the future emissions allowable without exceeding 1.5C warming. The 1.5C report has guided climate change policies across the globe including, via assessment by the UK Committee on Climate Change, the UK Parliament strengthening its climate target in June 2019 by passing legislation requiring the government to reduce the UK's net emissions of greenhouse gases by 100% relative to 1990 levels by 2050. This was described as the ‘ defining decision of this generation in fulfilling our responsibility to the next’ by Prime Minister Theresa May. [5.4].

Contribution to national policymaking

The UoE team’s research identifying human influence in extreme weather events has successfully engaged policymakers in the immediate risks and damages resulting from climate change. Professor Hegerl was on the committee (one of ten) that produced the 2016 US National Academies review on extreme weather event attribution [5.5], which cites 10 of her papers (5 as first author or principal supervisor; incl. **[3.6]**) as well as the IPCC guidance document [5.2]. This report reached the major conclusion that it is now possible to identify the role of climate change in individual extreme events. The report is “ by all metrics, […] among the most impactful contributions of the National Academies in the past decade” and was widely reported and communicated to US agencies and policymakers. It was downloaded more than 27,000 times by October 2020, ranking it as the most downloaded Earth Science report, and in the top 1% of all National Academies’ products. It was also covered by 300 news outlets, with “ multiple mentions by leading outlets including the New York Times, Washington Post, Forbes and CNN”. It was briefed to numerous audiences, including multiple US government agencies, staff from House and Senate committees, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. [5.6]. The report also underpinned the international development of an operational event attribution capability that can rapidly assess the factors contributing to extreme events. This “ enables analyses to be completed quickly after an event, leading to more direct connection to climate change” in media communication about an extreme event. The work was named as one of the top ten breakthrough technologies by the MIT Tech Review in 2020 [5.6]. Professor Hegerl also wrote the section on changes in climate extremes of the Climate Updates report by the Royal Society. This was used to inform policymakers ahead of the 2017 Bonn COP23 on scientific developments in the understanding and prediction of climate change since the 2014 IPCC 5th Assessment Report [5.7].

The team’s research into extreme events and climate sensitivity has further contributed to international reports (eg Figure 10.11 in the 5^th IPCC Report [5.2] is adapted from [3.3]. Professor Hegerl chaired the scientific review group for the UK Met Office Hadley Centre 2014-2017 (review group member from 2008) [5.1], and was a review group member for the recently released UK climate predictions 2018 (UKCP18) [5.8] which provide quantitative climate change predictions for UK policymakers and stakeholders informing major decisions on climate change adaptation e.g. managing flood risk and rising sea levels.

Routes to Impact: The main route to impact was the ICEF report by Jordan et al. (2011, doi: 10.4401/ag-5350), where Main was one of three principal members of the writing team, and which cites 5 of Main’s papers since 2000, including [3.2] and [3.3]. The ICEF report summarised the state of the art in OEF, and developed protocols for its application in risk assessment and communication. It prompted multi-national developments in public policy and service provision related to earthquake risk reduction that continue to this day. Impact from the research also arises from Main’s role as external reviewer to the operators of the Groningen gas field (NAM) in developing their OEF model and to the Dutch Bureau of Mines (SODM) in regulating hydrocarbon production at Groningen, Netherlands.

Impact on Practitioners and Stakeholders:

Italy: The Italian National Geophysical and Volcanological Institute (INGV) operates a live OEF system based on the principles established in the ICEF report. This provided “ statistically reliable and skilful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence” in central Italy [5.1]. The UK Government assisted the Italian Government in responding to the Norcia-Amatrice sequence via enhanced deployment of UK seismometers one week after the sequence started, led by Margarita Segou of the BGS, with Naylor, McCloskey and Main. The UK Cabinet Office commended our “ contribution to the UK’s positive reputation in this area” and confirmed our “ proactivity was very well received by both the INGV and the Italian Government” [5.2].

New Zealand: The New Zealand Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) has continued to issue operational forecasts of earthquake likelihood using the protocols established by the ICEF report. This includes 5 earthquakes since 2014, notably during the magnitude (M) 7.8 Kaikoura sequence in 2016, which affected the Town of Kaikoura itself, and multiple towns in central New Zealand, including on the capital city of Wellington. The OEF lead of the GNS writes “ *the New Zealand government instituted a one-year mandatory retrofit programme for reinforced masonry in central New Zealand. The details of the programme were heavily guided by OEF information and the government contributed up to 50% of the retrofit cost.*” [5.3]. OEF has been used in New Zealand for: (i) Health and safety assessments for Urban Search and Rescue staff involved in the short-term emergency response; (ii) Assessing the timing and suitability of resettlement or relocation by the Civil Protection agency; (iii) Assessing and managing the financial impact including adjustment of insurance premiums based on anticipated losses (independently estimated at USD705,000,000 - USD3,500,000,000 in the case of the Kaikoura sequence); (iv) Recovery planning, through mandatory retrofitting of vulnerable buildings, and changes in land use planning and building design codes by Local and National Authorities; (v) Public information throughout the sequence. OEF has also been used to guide timeline decisions for large infrastructure projects, and private companies have used OEF for decisions about planning repair of earthquake damage and for cost-benefit analysis for on-going decision making during recovery time. [5.3].

United States : The US Geological Survey (USGS) developed a system that forecasts the probabilities and numbers of aftershocks of different sizes following domestic earthquakes, and applied it during the aftershock sequence of the 2018 Anchorage M7.1 earthquake, the 2019 M6.4-M7.1 Ridgecrest sequence and the 2019-2020 Puerto Rico sequence. There has been wide recognition of OEF by the public, government, media, FEMA (the US Department of Homeland Security - Federal Emergency Management Agency), and others, especially during the Puerto Rico sequence in December 2019. Responding to widespread demands for forecast information, the USGS created a plain-language document that placed the forecast in terms of ‘scenarios’, plus an analysis to estimate the likely duration of the sequence, published on 30 January 2020 and released in English and Spanish, along with an infographic summary. [5.4]. As part of this programme, the USGS received three years of support from USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance to develop a product that has been provided to seismic network operators in several countries (Mexico, Nepal, Myanmar) allowing them to calculate and disseminate aftershock likelihoods. [5.5].

Japan: The ICEF report, and its subsequent approval by the International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth’s Interior influenced the Japanese Cabinet Office decision to suspend deterministic prediction of the Tokai earthquake by the Japanese Meteorological Authority (JMA) in 2018 in favour of an OEF (continuously-updated ‘Extra Earthquake Information’) service for the Nankai trough. If a period of elevated hazard is detected ‘JMA convenes the Nankai Trough Earthquake Assessment Committee for discussions on the expected potential for earthquake occurrence, and issues Earthquake Extra Information to the public via the JMA website and channels such as TV and radio’. [5.6].

Extension to Induced Seismicity : Main’s research has underpinned protocols to quantify hazards and manage risks associated with natural gas extraction in the Netherlands, in turn informing decisions by the Dutch Bureau of Mines (SodM), the Netherlands Government, and the field operators NAM [5.7]. NAM developed and published a model which “ provides operational forecasts consistent with the observed space–time–magnitude distribution of earthquakes induced by gas production from the Groningen field in the Netherlands…This forecast capability allows reliable assessment of alternative control options to better inform future induced seismic risk management decisions” [ [5.8], citing **[3.6]**]. This has resulted in approval of production, subject to significant managed changes in field operations and a reduction in the associated risk to the public [5.7]. In January 2014, the Netherlands Government announced a planned cut in total annual production of natural gas from 53.8 billion cubic metres (bcm) to 40 bcm by 2016, at an estimated cost to Government revenue of EUR1,000,000,000 “ as part of the effort to reduce the danger caused by small but damaging earthquakes” [5.9]. Subsequent cuts, reduced actual production to 24 bcm in October 2016, as confirmed by the Council of State ruling of November 18, 2015. In 2018 production was reduced further to 21.6 bcm of natural gas. [5.9].

Impact on raising public awareness and preparedness: The ICEF report highlighted the critical importance of risk communication during a crisis, and the effective communication of the relevant issues in times of repose, so that practitioners and the general public can act in an informed way during a crisis. Accordingly, the group has also contributed significantly to the public understanding and discussion of earthquake risks through interaction with a range of media outlets in articles or interviews in international media outlets including the Guardian, Scotsman, commentary in Nature, and via Terra Mater’s multiple-award-winning documentary Chasing Quakes on our work in supporting INGV during the Norcia-Amatrice sequence in 2016-17, featuring Main and Naylor, in December 2017 [5.10].

The team’s research has led to impact in 3 main areas, policy, industry and technology:

Policy:

The team’s research has underpinned the development and implementation of national policies to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation [5.1], [5.2], [5.3], [5.4]. UoE biomass mapping contributed to a USD6,555,000 World Bank project [5.4] to develop capabilities and satellite monitoring tools for forest degradation assessment, applicable on a global scale for sustainable forest management and UN REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) schemes, particularly across sub-Saharan Africa and Central/South America. The Mozambique government has used this research to inform and implement national policy, where ‘ these new data sources have been critical to allowing us to monitor carbon stocks and emissions from land use, and this information in turn contributes to our efforts to set ambitious targets as part of the Paris Agreement, and then monitor our progress towards these goals’ [5.1].

The flexibility and accuracy of the methods have supported NGOs working across sub-Saharan Africa, eg Mozambique, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Rwanda [5.1] [5.4]. The team has worked extensively with the Plan Vivo foundation, an Edinburgh-based charity with international scope, which has created a set of requirements for smallholders and communities wishing to manage their land and natural resources more sustainably. Plan Vivo has worked with and supported over 16,000 participating smallholders with over 180,000 ha of land under management in a range of countries, resulting in over 3,500,000 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions reductions [5.2]. The methods developed at Edinburgh ‘ have been instrumental in many community carbon projects generating carbon credits - these cutting-edge methods have been critical for these projects, which would not otherwise have been viable...and.. our collaboration with the University of Edinburgh remains one of our strongest partnerships, which continues to deliver impact through developing an applying innovative approach to carbon mapping, which ultimately benefits thousands of smallholders’ [5.3].

The team have combined biomass data and models to develop new tools to accurately monitor savannas and dry forests, and quantify carbon stock changes and emissions, and build international partnerships to support national agencies reporting and forecasting greenhouse gas budgets required by the UN Paris Climate Agreement [5.4, 5.6]. Brazil has the largest tropical forest biomass and coverage of any country in the world. With a UoE-Brazilian partnership built over 20 years, the team’s ‘ world-leading expertise and insights around regional carbon cycles, carbon flows and integrating these fluxes at a regional level’ has been critical to developing the modelling capacity of the Brazilian agency INPE, helping them to meet their institutional goals for carbon and climate. Resulting analyses from INPE are informing and improving the Brazilian national carbon cycle model, which is ‘ critical to provide a greenhouse gas balance estimate that underpins national reporting’ [5.6] to guide mitigation policies and supports the Brazilian Government Working Group on REDD+, as well as contributing to the scientific basis for the deforestation carbon emissions reference levels [5.4].

Industry :

A UoE collaboration with Ecometrica resulted in the UK Space Agency funding a GBP14,000,000 project to protect and restore 300,000,000 ha of tropical forests [5.3]. This project during 2017-20 led to the development of tools to measure and forecast biomass change and provision of these outputs to customers across the globe; ‘ the products based on University of Edinburgh Research have proven to have great societal value – informing policy and decision making ‘ [5.3]. The team’s research has also been critical to the development of Ecometrica’s Hectares Indicator. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) funding provided by the International Climate Fund (ICF) is a key part of the UK’s commitment under the Copenhagen Accord to support developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change through low carbon growth, reduced deforestation and increased resilience [5.5]. ODA funding for forest related programmes is approximately GBP200,000,000 per year, and to ensure this is used effectively and efficiently, ICF resources report against relevant Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s). The Hectares Indicator is a KPI used by UK government for most forest-related programmes [5.3].

1. Technology: The team developed and delivered the supporting case for the Earth Explorer BIOMASS satellite mission in 2013, after advising the European Space Agency (ESA) on mission development since 2009. The BIOMASS mission will determine the amount of biomass and carbon stored aboveground in tropical forests over five years (2023-8), at 4 ha (0.04 km²) resolution, with repeated mapping every 9 months [5.5]. BIOMASS is the first satellite mission in space for P-band radar, which is uniquely capable of monitoring the densest tropical forests. UoE research provided a ‘critical starting point to the mission design and… the basis of all downstream mission requirements’ [5.5]. UoE research was instrumental in securing the contract from the European Space Agency (ESA) for Airbus to build the satellite in the UK: UoE ‘ support in writing the selection document ..and presentation at the selection committee meeting ..led to BIOMASS being selected as an ESA earth explorer over intense competition’ [5.5]. The mission, selected in 2013, is the first ever ESA forest-specific monitoring mission, with a budget of EUR420,000,000, including a GBP192,000,000 investment in Airbus UK (currently being built, due to launch in 2023) [5.5].

Changes taking place in the Arctic, Antarctic and other glaciated regions are drivers for disruptive global changes, especially sea-level rise, with major ramifications for people living both in polar regions and worldwide. Research conducted by the group has provided key input to climate change decision-making by international policymakers, in particular through key contributions on sea-level rise to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These reports are the formal scientific input to the decision-making processes of international climate change negotiations and agreements. We evidence our research cited in the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in [5.1] while our data and modelling contributions to the IPCC Sixth Assessment (due 2021) are evidenced below in this section (“Informing policy…”)

Improving technology to provide accurate assessment of climate change impacts on ice sheets and glaciers and their contribution to sea-level change

The EU Copernicus Earth Observation programme was established to fulfil the growing need amongst European policymakers to access accurate and timely information services to better manage the environment, understand and mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure civil security. The new cryospheric processing techniques developed at Edinburgh since 2013 [3.1, 3.2, 3.3] have been crucial to developing a new European Space Agency (ESA) EUR300,000,000 satellite mission concept for polar ice and snow topography monitoring within the Copernicus programme. The head of Research and Development at ESA’s Climate Department highlights: “ This objective is possible thanks to the techniques that you have robustly demonstrated and applied during the last 7 years. The project is now entering into its second implementation phase. I am pleased to recognise the direct benefit of your involvement with industry via the two industrial consortiums led by Airbus Defense and Space and by OHB Sweden (with a budget of EUR300,000,000). Doing so, you are ensuring implementation of the latest techniques and that the consortium translate user requirements in to sensor and spacecraft design specifications. In this way, your research will lead to the broadest possible scientific legacy.” [5.2].

The team’s new algorithms have also supported the continuing development and applications of the EUR170,000,000 ESA Cryosat satellite mission which monitors ice sheets and sea-ice volume. The CryoSat Mission Manager for ESA states that the team’s algorithms have resulted in “an increase the quantity of observation [of ice change] by two orders of magnitude … which has led to more accurate volume estimates and applications beyond the sole Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets that CryoSat was designed to monitor, e.g. over the ice fields of Patagonia”. The new work has also been used to argue for continuing funding [EUR10,000,000 per annum] of the mission operational exploitation [5.3]. Additionally in 2019, and on the research by the Edinburgh team, ESA launched the EUR400,000 CryoTEMPO programme to provide “ easy to use and hassle free” products on ice-sheet and glacier changes observed by satellites for non-specialist users [5.3].

The team’s activities in satellite remote sensing also led, in 2019, to the formation of a startup company Earthwave, which now employs seven staff and has GBP347,000 annual turnover from clients in the UK and Europe [5.5].

Informing policy through more accurate estimates of the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise.

Much UK national policy on mitigating sea-level rise is informed by the IPCC; in turn, the IPCC is informed by major national programmes such as the GBP2,4000,000 British Antarctic Survey (BAS) numerical-modelling programme that is dedicated towards providing greatly improved predictions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s fate and its contribution to global sea-level rise over the next 200 years. Over the reporting period the BAS programme has been underpinned by geophysical measurements of the shape and condition of Antarctica’s ice-sheet bed acquired and processed into subglacial topographic maps by the UoE-led team [3.4], and numerical-modelling equations and strategies that were developed at Edinburgh [3.6] which have contributed to greatly-reduced uncertainties in BAS’ programme for numerically modelling the ice-sheet’s future. To quote BAS’ Director of Science ‘Our British Antarctic Survey … contributions to IPCC have been underpinned by modelling strategies and equations formulated by Dan and his team at Edinburgh since late 2013’ and ‘Datasets Rob and his team produced… have been crucial in providing underpinning numerical modelling of West Antarctica’s future which has been undertaken to support the upcoming sea-level rise assessments for the IPCC 6^th assessment reports, used as the primary evidence bases for global policymakers in planning sea-level defences’ [5.4] . For example, 18 of the group’s research papers since 2013 were cited in the 2019 IPCC Special Report Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [5.1] in which the Amundsen Sea Sector of West Antarctica and Greenland (a focus of our data gathering and modelling efforts) were highlighted in the Summary for Policymakers as key sources of future sea-level rise.

Prof. Brusatte’s research has transformed our knowledge of the rise and fall of the dinosaurs significantly sufficiently to require a new narrative. Prof. Brusatte’s has presented his work on dinosaur evolution to a broad global audience through publishing, television, and film in a manner that is easily grasped but not ‘dumbed down’. His outreach has reached millions of people globally, changed public perceptions of dinosaurs, and generated significant revenue for the creative industries.

Impact on publishing/economy and commerce

In June 2018 Brusatte published The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs, a popular science book telling the story of dinosaurs from origins to extinction and how scientists study dinosaurs [5.1]. The book articulates Brusatte’s theories of dinosaur evolution, developed in his work from 2013-2018 [3.1-3.6], particularly the new view of dinosaur evolution as gradual and shaped by environmental change. Key chapters in the book linking to Brusatte’s specific research outputs include those on the gradual transition between dinosaurs and birds [3.1-3.2], tyrannosaur evolution from small to large body size and the development of dinosaur intelligence [3.3-3.5], and the sudden extinction of dinosaurs [3.6].

The book has been translated into 20 languages and sold over 284,000 copies, including ca. 60,000 in the UK. These sales figures have seen it reach official bestseller lists (determined solely by sales) in its three major markets ( Sunday Times bestseller in the UK; New York Times bestseller in the USA; Globe & Mail bestseller in Canada) [5.2]. The economic impact of the book is demonstrated through sales earnings estimated at 284,000 copies x GBP15 (average retail price of the various editions), giving a figure of ca. GBP4,260,000.

Many awards demonstrate that it was among the most influential science books of 2018. For example it was named the ‘Science Book of the Year’ by the UK Times, and voted by readers as the ‘Best Science & Technology Book 2018’ on Goodreads.com. It was also named a ‘Best book of the Year’ by outlets including Smithsonian, NPR Science Friday, Popular Mechanics and Science News., and attracted significant media attention in the US, UK and Canada. The book’s agent writes “ with this book, Steve Brusatte’s research, scientific expertise, and field work are not only impacting students (and) the field of paleontology, but (also) the world at large”. [5.2].

Impact on public awareness and engagement:

Significance is supported by overwhelmingly positive reader reviews: on Goodreads the book has a score of 4.14/5 (17,800 reviews, among the highest number of reviews of any science book published over the last few years); on Amazon.com (USA) it has a score of 4.7/5 (1,413 ratings). Many of these reviews explicitly mention that the book reveals a new image of dinosaurs, different from what many people were taught in school. The book also received many positive professional reviews, including the following selection:

“If you ever loved a dinosaur, buy this book. … Brusatte does for dinosaurs what E.O. Wilson did for ants and Carl Sagan for stars.”- Washington Times

“This vivid book reanimates dinosaurs for a new generation.… A fine piece of writing.” - The Times (London)

“*A thrilling study. ... The best book on the subject since [the 1980s]. ... Brusatte writes with the authority of a man who ranks as one of the leading experts in his field.*” - Sunday Times (London)

“[A] Jurassic blockbuster. ... A gripping read in the best traditions of popular science. ... Infectiously ebullient.” - The Observer (London)

“ A masterpiece of science writing.” - Washington Post

“Filled with vivid illustrations, historical accounts, and tales of paleontological expeditions, this book will change the way you think about dinosaurs.” - Gizmodo

“Tells the epic tale of the dinosaurs rise to dominance and extinction, taking us on a thrilling journey back in time.” - National Geographic

[5.2, 5.6].

Impact on filmmaking:

Following publication of the book Brusatte was approached to be the ‘Paleontology Consultant’ for the Jurassic Park movie franchise, and is now chief science advisor for the upcoming film Jurassic World 3, which is currently in production and will premier in June 2022. Thus far, Brusatte has closely worked with the Director/Producer and Production Designer, using his research on dinosaur anatomy [3.3-3.5] and feathered dinosaurs [3.1-3.2] to ensure that the dinosaurs, their sizes, and their skin and feathers are as realistic as possible within the constraints of a blockbuster film franchise [5.3]. The Director/Producer “was blown away by Steve’s modern new perspective on palaeontology; and was determined to have his collaboration on this Jurassic film to make sure we’re presenting the most up to date scientific knowledge on dinosaurs”. The team has also cited Brusatte’s knowledge as “ invaluable to us as we developed script, story and design. Steve has signed off on the scientific accuracy of our dinosaur designs and characteristics during prep, shoot and also into post-production as we focus on franchise and toy lines” [5.3].

Impact on broadcasting:

Brusatte frequently participates in television documentaries. Three television programs in particular have included Brusatte in key roles, which he has used to articulate his theories on dinosaur evolution in engaging with the public.

In 2015 Brusatte was a presenter and scientific consultant for the program T. rex Autopsy, which was broadcast worldwide by the National Geographic Channel, with “ a reach of 440 million homes in 171 countries in 38 languages. It was one of the top 5 rating shows” [5.4]. This program used the novel concept of building a life-sized, scientifically accurate T. rex model (skin, feathers, muscles, bones, internal organs) and then dissecting it, to teach the audience about the biology and evolution of T. rex. Brusatte’s research on tyrannosaurs [3.3-3.5], particularly on their skeletal anatomy [3.3] and large brains and keen senses [3.4], were instrumental in building the model, and was articulated through his presenter role [5.4], with the show’s director highlighting “unique insight that ensured the scientific accuracy of the programme… I am confident we produced the most realistic and scientifically accurate model of not only T. rex, but (also) any dinosaur that has ever appeared on television” [5.4]. The show received positive reviews from critics, with one at Stuff.co.nz [5.5] calling it a “ brilliantly clever presentation…an informative guide to current thinking about dinosaur anatomy, using special effects and a forensic who-dunnit mystery format to catch viewers' attention.”

In 2017 Brusatte appeared in the BBC2 programme The Day the Dinosaurs Died (2017). The documentary told the story of the asteroid impact that killed the dinosaurs. Brusatte was filmed excavating fossils in New Mexico, where he discussed his research that showed that the dinosaurs went extinct abruptly and were rapidly replaced by mammals [3.6] [5.7]. The programme director asked Brusatte to participate “ because of your expertise on the evolution and extinction of the dinosaurs… as demonstrated through your record of scientific publications and popular books. Your role in the programme included critical insight that ensured scientific accuracy and engaging presentation. By working together, we produced what I believe to be the most realistic and up to date look at why dinosaurs died out 66 million years ago, when an asteroid hit the earth” [5.7].

The program was watched by over six million people on BBC2 in the UK and was among the top 120 watched documentaries on British television in 2017 [5.7]. It was later broadcast as a NOVA special on PBS in the USA, and translated into several languages.

In 2018, Brusatte was the chief consultant for the 10-part children’s CBBC series Deadly Dinosaurs. His research on tyrannosaurs [3.3-3.5] and feathered dinosaurs [3.1-3.2] were used to ensure the accuracy of animations and the appropriate use of hands-on experiments to explain aspects of dinosaur evolution, like the strong bite forces of T. rex. The series was nominated for a BAFTA [5.8].

The far-reaching and global impact of the UoE group led by Palmer supported the commitment by UK, European and many international governments to the goals of the 2015 UN Paris Agreement to reduce carbon emissions and limit global warming to “well below 2 degrees”. Methods to measure carbon emissions and sinks are enshrined in international agreements, and countries are encouraged to develop independent sources of information (ie beyond simpler bookkeeping methods based on how much fuel was burned, coupled with a generic emission factor) to monitor the effectiveness of policy measures. For example, the UK includes such independent data as part of their United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change submissions, supported by research described in sections 2 and 3, and the UK was the first major economy in the world to pass laws mandating verifiable net zero GHG emissions by 2050 [5.1].

Impact on UK policy and investment

Based on an extensive study in collaboration with UK industry (funded by the UK Space Agency, UKSA), the team demonstrated that the UK has the technical and scientific capability to contribute to and exploit data from a CO₂ satellite mission [5.1]. This work led to the UKSA endorsing a business case for the development of a space based GHG monitoring capability as a high priority. As an immediate step the UK government invested GBP10,000,000 in 2019 to collaborate with the French Space Agency CNES on the development of the MicroCarb satellite mission. The decision to invest ‘ has been a direct result of research carried out by Professor Palmer and others as part of the ‘Bilateral Carbon Mission’ Study and the associated business case’ [5.1], paving the way to an operational space-based system monitoring UK net zero targets and supporting science and engineering communities and the UK space industry by securing and retaining science and engineering expertise [5.1, 5.2].

Impact on European policy and investment

In 2019 the UK increased its contribution to the ESA’s Earth Observation programme by GBP73,000,000 [5.5]. In addition, ESA was given the go ahead by its Member States (including the UK), to develop an operational CO₂ mission (CO2M) and to launch the first satellite under the auspices of the European Copernicus programme, with the then President-elect of the European Commission directing the Commissioner for the Internal market to “ explore ways in which we can make the most of our assets to deliver on climate objectives, including the use of Copernicus to monitor CO₂ emissions” [5.3, 5.4]. CO2M is one of six high priority missions of the Copernicus programme funded under an envelope of EUR18,000,000,000 [5.5]. These decisions were driven by a strong commitment by the UKSA to monitor climate from space including the future space-based CO₂ monitoring system of the Copernicus program (CO2M) informed by knowledge from the research carried out by the UoE group, including [3.2] and [3.3] [5.1].

The cumulative scientific work led by the team has been influential in confirming the feasibility of CO2M and setting mission requirements [5.6]. The UoE Palmer group work has significantly advanced the use of satellite observations of CO₂ and CH₄ to develop knowledge of carbon cycles ([3.4], [3.5], [3.6]). National and international recognition of the work led to Palmer’s membership of the European Commission CO₂ Task Force in 2016 [5.6] to provide guidance and requirements in expert reports [5.7, 5.8]. The task Force have begun developing an operational European measurement and verification system, including the CO2M satellite data, to ensure the system meets the requirements to infer actionable information on fossil fuel CO₂ emissions to standards described in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Impact on International policy and investment

The cumulative body of UoE research, including [3.1]-[3.6], has directly contributed to long-term monitoring programmes of the global co-ordination Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Atmospheric Composition Virtual Constellation group (AC-VC) in developing an international satellite constellation architecture to monitor global greenhouse gases from space, combining data from existing satellites into create a dedicated virtual satellite constellation [5.5]. The UK GEO/CEOS Office supported Palmer’s membership of the CEOS Carbon working group as UK representative.

Collaborative work between the UoE researchers and Chinese researchers has recently shown the benefit of a multi-decadal Chinese investment in afforestation using in situ and satellite measurements of CO₂ [3.6]. They showed using a variety of data that China’s forests absorb approximately 1.11 billion tonnes of carbon annually, nearly 50% of Chinese anthropogenic emissions during the same period [5.9], increasing confidence in the Chinese Government that the ongoing afforestation initiative will play a key role in achieving the net-zero emissions target by 2060, announced in 2020 by the Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Administrative Data Enhancements

ADRC-S has developed state-of-the-art ‘administrative data enhancements’ that have led to a wider and more varied range of linked personal administrative data being made more widely available. Secure and private by design, these approaches have made this enhanced provision legally compliant. These innovations have been critical to the development of increased national-level provision of data in Scotland: “To realise the benefit from data requires us to be able to safely and quickly share data, and link different streams of data up. Having a clear legal basis for that is vital, so having [ADRC-S] help shaping a new approach to how we share and link data has been very influential, including for the development of Research Data Scotland, the new major data infrastructure in Scotland.” Chief Statistician, Scottish Government [5.1]

These ‘administrative data enhancements’ have had impact in the UK and internationally, being adopted by national statistical and government agencies, eg the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Stats Canada. Many of the approaches have been widely accepted across the UK, such as SafePODs (since 2015) and eDATASHIELD (since 2014), as well as outside the UK in Europe and America, notably the Synthpop package (since 2014). Collectively these processes have enhanced the capability and capacity for research within and for Government at multi-national level.

Functional anonymization and safe research spaces

The concept of functional anonymisation [3.1, 3.2]** has been used as the core legal justification for releasing data for analysis in Wales, England and Scotland. It is a cornerstone concept for advisory services such as the UK Anonymisation Network [5.2] and the EU ‘datapitch’ [5.3]. It is now a familiar concept for professional bodies: the International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP) have produced a lawyer’s guide to functional anonymization and pseudonymisation more generally [5.4].

‘Embassy safe research spaces’ [3.1] have been developed for national organisations such as the ONS and the Welsh Secure Anonymised Information Databank. The ESRC’s UK Data Service has significantly extended the locations where sensitive data can be accessed, from initially 1 or 2 sites to over 25 locations across the UK (eg Oxford, Exeter, University of Highland and Islands) as SafePODS are rolled out across the country, significantly reducing travel times and increasing accessibility and capacity for a wide range of policy-related research – meaning much more analysis is now possible by the national organisations cited. [5.5].

Making useful sensitive personal datasets more widely available .

The ‘Synthpop’ package considerably simplified the process of producing safe and high utility synthetic versions of otherwise sensitive private data [3.4]. It was made available to practioners in 2014 and has been downloaded 23,259 times across 129 different countries. Synthpop is judged “ Easy to use, fast and high quality” [5.6]. It has influenced professional development internationally, eg for regular short courses delivered to at least 250 participants for the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Germany. The Distinguised Research at IAB argues “ For many years, one of the major obstacles that prevented many statistical agencies and organisations from adopting this innovative data protection method [synthetic data], was the fact that no software tool was available that could help practitioners” and “ This changed with the advent of the synthpop package”, “ It lowers the barrier for statistical agencies …in exploring whether the synthetic data approach would be a feasible strategy” [5.7]. Users of Synthpop include: Institute for Employment Research, Germany; Labor Dynamic Institute, Cornell University; and the Open Source Policy Center, American Enterprise Institute, USA. Synthpop has also enabled creative engagement with data, eg Statistics Canada used it to produce an analytically-rich synthetic data file that was used during external ‘codefest’ events. One such ‘codefest’, run in collaboration with IBM, tested cloud-based tools and international teams produced new visualisation suites for Statistics Canada linked data [5.8]. It is also used in the private sector, the Head of Data Science at synthetic data company Hazy explains “ One of the projects we were inspired by and use in our daily activities is Synthpop developed at University of Edinburgh…The simplicity of Synthpop and the quality of the data generated make it a great resource for industry” [5.9].

Allowing cross country research

The eDATASHIELD approach [3.3] has been used across the UK to allow comparative research previously proscribed by law. This has allowed, for the first time, research across all three of the UK’s Census Longitudinal Studies, for example allowing the Scottish Government’s Glasgow Centre for Population Health in 2016 to better understand ill health in Glasgow through comparison to similar de-industrialising towns in England [5.10].

Building confidence with data controllers and developing a new policy evidence base.

Through our careful legal and technological underpinning research, the centre has built trust and acceptability with the public and Government departments and data controllers. This led to increased data sharing, changing practice, attitudes and standards in the Scottish Government and the data landscape more broadly. The overall impact has fundamentally shifted access and approaches to administrative data, unlocking its significant value and building capacity in this area. The Scottish Government’s Chief Statistician also explains how ADRC-S leadership “ has meant a number of high-profile evidence gaps, such as benefit claimants, veterans or people in the justice system have been or are being filled, but even more so I think the way you have gone about this work is starting to change the relationship between Government policy officials and analysts, and academic experts to be more collaborative” [5.1].

Providing an evidence base for COVID-19 policy.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been paramount for government and health agencies to have detailed information quickly. In order to understand transmission, it was especially important to understand who was living together. The ADRC-S measure of households, enabled by the CHI-UPRN Residential Linkage (CURL) tool meant, for example, Public Health Scotland could provide Scottish Ministers with information on transmission from hospitals to care homes. The Chief Data Officer for the Scottish Government comments that “ *The work you have led in developing tools to enable administrative data research, such as your work on linking medical data to property locations (Unique Property Reference Number) … enables a better understanding of settings, such as care homes or households, in turn enabling vital COVID-19 research and understanding for Government.*” [5.11]

The CURL tool was used to inform the key Scottish government report ‘Discharges from NHS Scotland Hospitals to Care Homes’ [5.12a]. In October 2020 the Cabinet Secretary for Health in Scotland, outlined: “ I commissioned this report because it is right that residents, families, staff, and Parliament, have accurate data and independent analysis on the transfer of patients to care homes and the impact that had in those care homes ...The data from this report gives us a better understanding of the impact of discharges on outbreaks in care homes. We will be taking forward the recommendations that Public Health Scotland make in their report, and we will continue to adapt our guidance and the steps we are taking to protect care home staff and residents in line with the latest data, scientific evidence and clinical advice” [5.12b].