Impact case study database

Supporting searches for UK missing persons

In 2016-17, England and Wales police forces recorded 102,404 missing people, a proportion of whom will have been murdered (NCA, 2019 report). In this context, Pringle and Heaton are part of the Search Technologies Research Team (START), a police and academic collaboration that improves police search effectiveness ( 5.1). Pringle has provided expert support to the last three National Search Advisers at the NCA, each seconded from Regional Police for five years, searching for 350 UK missing persons ( 5.2). KAEG has raised police awareness and knowledge through publications in the Police Professional practitioner magazine, and workshop training with UK Police crime scene investigation managers and officers in 2014, 2016 and 2018 ( 5.2). Research findings ( 3.1, 3.4) have informed police search training at the National College of Policing ( 5.2). Evidenced-based research and details concerning geoforensic challenges were also presented at the 2018 House of Lords Forensic Science enquiry ( 5.3).

Pringle’s expertise has informed decisions about the appropriateness of geophysical techniques/equipment for searches, and accurate interpretation of forensic search datasets collected, essential for key decision making and operational success ( 5.2). Since October 2014, KAEG has directly contributed to 16 UK missing persons cases undertaken by the NCA and Police Forces, providing operational advice and conducting geophysical surveys ( 5.4). This has saved UK Forces £141,291.31 of police time ( 5.4). Many cases, with intelligence or witnesses’ reports of bodies buried, were closed with either human remains found, or the absence of human remains confirmed. One involved searching for a missing person in North Wales, where a geophysical survey was undertaken within a rural area and a body discovered and identified ( 3.5).

Supporting searches for international missing persons

Internationally, KAEG has given expert advice on 12 cases, conducting geophysics searches for missing persons in Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Pakistan, Romania, USA, UAE and Vietnam ( 5.4). Search strategies ( 3.5) have located victims killed in natural disasters, genocides and murders ( 5.4). For example, in April 2014, the Cienfuegos family contacted an international geoforensics research team, involving Pringle, requesting help to locate their grandfather’s grave, shot and buried in the Lena mountains, northern Spain, during the civil war. The team conducted GPR surveys of two witness-identified sites, discovering 26 victims buried in a mass grave. Closure was provided for affected communities, including the Cienfuegos family, whose grandfather’s remains were found ( 5.5). The team has also advised Columbian authorities in searching for 240 people killed by a landslide in Mocoa, Colombia, in 2017, and assisted the International Commission on Missing Persons (Colombia Programme) to locate 51,000 missing persons ( 5.4).

Supporting searches for archaeological targets

KAEG expertise has been innovatively applied during Crossrail excavations, discovering a 15^th Century Black Death plague cemetery ( 3.6). This work, filmed for a Channel 4 documentary entitled ‘Return of the Black death: Secret History’ ( 5.6), used multi-technique geophysical detection, characterising the site and evidencing individual burials, challenging medieval testimonies of mass grave burials for plague victims ( 3.6). This was reported in the national and international press, reaching an audience of over 7.5 million, including BBC, Daily Mail, the Sun, the Times, Der Spiegel, and specialist magazines ( 5.7). KAEG also investigated World War II archaeological sites, including allied and axis prisoner of war camp tunnel escapes, and British Resistance Auxiliary Unit bunkers; these were also reported by the BBC and Telegraph ( 5.7).

Supporting legal enforcement to protect the environment

KAEG has supported policing of environmental crimes by conducting geophysics investigations to garner prosecution evidence ( 5.8). Search strategies have been applied in legal cases where waste was illegally buried, and badger setts tampered with.

A Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) environmental statistics report stated that between 2016-2018, 306 illegal waste sites required remediation, costing taxpayers £500,000. In this context, KAEG located two coastal buried waste dumps in Newtownards in 2016. Geoforensic evidence assisted the successful prosecution and determined sentence severity ( 3.4). The guilty defendant had to pay £250,000 clean-up costs, with the fine calculated using waste volumes and submergence under the water, as identified by KAEG. Proof of resultant marine pollution enabled a higher court sentence ( 5.8).

Badger persecution is a UK Wildlife Crime Priority, with 50% of incidents recorded by Scottish Badgers and Badger Trust related to badger sett interference. KAEG has worked with rural and wildlife crime officers (Staffordshire Police) to investigate deliberate badger sett tampering. GPR survey investigations, led by Wisniewski, found five of twelve badger sett tunnel entrances blocked; the resulting scientific report provided important evidence to the Crown Prosecution Service to charge the perpetrator ( 5.9, 5.10).

KAEG has been involved in informing public debate and the government on fracking-induced seismic activity. KAEG‘s fracking research has been reported in numerous media outlets, with an international reach of >12 million, including reports in the US, Germany and Singapore, and extensive UK coverage by the BBC, Sky, LBC, the Guardian, Daily Express and Financial Times ( 5.1). KAEG expert opinion has been sought by several environmental groups, including Greenpeace ( 5.2), and local community action groups such as ‘Frack Free United’ and ‘Residents Action on Fylde Fracking’ ( 5.1). KAEG has worked with policymakers, raising awareness, informing understanding of geologically vulnerable areas, and how fracking-induced earthquakes are triggered. The research ( 3.2-3.7) has been applied to guidelines and policy regulating the UK fracking industry.

Advising the UK government and developing fracking policy

Over the past decade, KAEG has advised the UK government on how fracking-related earthquakes are caused, high-risk areas where fracking should be avoided, and procedures needed to minimise the risk of fracking-induced earthquakes (see 3.2).

Following fracking-related seismic activity at Preese Hall, Lancashire, the UK government reviewed regulations and, in 2012, introduced a traffic light system ( 5.3). Ed Davey, then Energy Secretary, stated, “This was a key decision – based on the best science available – and after extensive consultation. Indeed, I insisted on consulting on the report itself and its recommendations to promote as much transparency as possible.” ( 5.2). The system put in place a series of checks to monitor seismicity, requiring drilling to stop for 18 hours in the event of tremors >0.5ML, a standard recommended to government in a 2012 report co-authored by Prof. Styles ( 5.2, 5.4). Further recommendations have also been implemented, including the requirement of operators to conduct local geological studies, including mapping faults and fully understand local geology, to assess whether fracking could reactivate existing faults ( 5.5 5.6). The Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) also makes an independent assessment of the likelihood of seismic activity based upon recommended geological studies ( 5.6).

On 22^nd May 2018, Prof. Styles’ report ( 3.2) was launched in the House of Lords in an event hosted by Baroness Lynne Featherstone, who commented, “This report asks some serious questions of the Government and the fracking industry. Ministers must take heed and listen to the growing weight of evidence on fracking and, at the bare minimum, implement a moratorium on fracking in coal mining areas and review fracking across the UK” ( 5.7). On the same day, an Early Day Motion (EDM) on fracking in former coalfield areas was presented to the House of Commons by John Mann, supported by 19 MPs. The EDM draws upon 3.2, highlighting ‘the risk of earthquakes posed by fracking beneath coal-mined areas where mining-induced seismicity has already occurred’ ( 5.8). It calls on ‘the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government’ to adopt Prof. Styles' best-practice recommendation that planning applications for any fracking site include all available, high-resolution, carefully mapped datasets and incorporate these in the ‘National Planning Policy Framework’, and further calls on ‘the Government and local authorities to place a moratorium on fracking-related activities in coalfield areas’ ( 5.8). The report was cited in the House of Commons Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee (2^nd July 2018), in a report titled ‘Planning guidance on fracking 2017–19’ ( 5.9). In this, the committee recommends that the government assesses fracking guidance and responds to its findings that fracking in former coal mining areas could reactivate old or unknown faults ( 5.9).

In August 2019, fracking began at Preston New Road 2 (PNR2), Lancashire, after agreeing a Hydraulic Fracture Plan with fracking operator Cuadrilla ( 5.3). The plan proposed using mitigation measures recommended in 3.3, including the traffic light system, to undertake geological surveys of the area and monitor seismic activity ( 5.3). Fracking commenced at the site on 15^th August; a series of seismic events were recorded including red-light events that resulted in fracking being paused. On 26^th August, the UK’s largest fracking-induced earthquake occurred, measuring 2.9ML, which was widely felt across the region with cosmetic damage to some buildings ( 5.3). Based upon the measures proposed in 3.3, OGA suspended operations. In an interim OGA report in November 2019 ( 5.3), based upon the seismic data and traffic light monitoring system at PNR2, it was concluded that it is not possible with current technology to accurately predict the probability of fracking-associated tremors. Based on this, the government put a moratorium on fracking in England ( 5.4, 5.10). Business and Energy Secretary Andrea Leadsom MP said, “In the UK, we have been led by the best available scientific evidence...after reviewing the OGA’s report into recent seismic activity at Preston New Road, it is clear that we cannot rule out future unacceptable impacts on the local community'' ( 5.10).