Impact case study database

Challenges facing the copper industry

Copper is an essential component of electric motors and power cables. As we transition to a low-carbon economy, demand for copper will grow rapidly, reflecting greater use of electric vehicles, wind turbines and photovoltaic cells. Global demand for copper will increase three-fold by 2050 if a target of ≤2 °C global warming is to be achieved [S1]. The increase in demand cannot be met by recycling alone, thus discovery of new world-class copper ore deposits is critical.

Most near-surface PCDs have already been discovered. The grand challenge for the mining industry is “ locating [world class copper] resources when such deposits occur at depth, potentially buried by post-mineralisation cover. New tools and new understanding are required to reduce exploration cost and risk and to minimise environmental impacts” (Chief geologist - Technical support & technology development, Rio Tinto Exploration) [S2]. To achieve this requires a “ combination of economic geology, geochemistry, igneous petrology and volcanology … to make transformational advances in understanding these complex ore systems” (independent geological consultant) [S3].

Copper exploration is further blighted by many ‘false positives’; sites suspected of containing copper reserves often prove fruitless. A better understanding of where to drill and, thus, where not to drill, will improve the efficiency of exploration strategies and minimise environmental damage caused by drilling.

BHP collaboration

BHP, the world’s largest mining company, approached UoB’s Earth Sciences in 2010 to establish a research collaboration [G1-G4] to address the challenges facing the copper exploration industry. The goal was to develop new perspectives on copper deposit formation by engaging UoB researchers with world-class expertise in the fundamentals of volcanology and igneous petrology. Collaborating with BHP has given UoB researchers access to key datasets and facilitated knowledge exchange to enable improvements to copper exploration on a timescale of years. This working relationship with BHP is ongoing and, in return, BHP has had first-mover advantage on new models, tools and strategies resulting from the research. Moreover, the valuable knowledge co-developed between UoB and BHP stands to benefit the wider mining industry through a RCUK-funded consortium, FAMOS [G5], which runs 2017-22 to develop exploration tools for PCDs with partners from the major copper exploration and mining companies.

The UoB-BHP collaboration has already led to BHP’s commercial adoption of the ‘transcrustal magmatic system’ [R1] and ‘landscape evolution’ [R5, R6] concepts. The UoB-BHP collaboration has already led to BHP’s commercial adoption of the ‘transcrustal magmatic system’ [R1] and ‘landscape evolution’ [R5, R6] concepts. BHP’s VP for Geoscience praises this “ valuable working relationship”, with strong, aligned research interests on Porphyry Copper systems and further comments that new developments in “ the fundamental understanding of the processes of mineralization associated with arc magmas [are valuable] to mineral discovery” [S4]. In his presentation on BHP’s copper strategy at London Metals Exchange Week (an annual meeting for the global metals community) in 2017, a BHP President of Operations announced: “ Knowledge-sharing between our teams at BHP is important, but another valuable part of our exploration strategy is our academic ties. Our partnerships with the likes of Bristol University… has helped us tackle the geoscience issues our explorers face.” [S4].

Application of Bristol PCD’s research has impacted BHP’s exploration pipeline for both hypogene and supergene PCDs through: priority shifts in expenditure profile, reallocation of corporate budgets, decisions not to explore in certain areas and so freeing up budget to explore more promising areas, and new thinking on exploration targets.

Hypogene PCD deposits: Predicting PCD locations and copper fertility evaluation

The transcrustal [R1] and gas-brine models [R2] provide a new conceptual framework to understand the 4-D structure of ore-forming magmatic systems. This has transformed BHP’s thinking for predicting locations in arcs that are most amenable to PCD formation. BHP’s Head of Geoscience Excellence writes [S5]: “ … the interaction with Bristol has caused me to look very differently at the architecture and dynamics of magmatic systems and PCD formation, and how we can build these new perspectives into exploration strategies”.

The benefits of combining this new understanding of PCD formation with detailed studies of rock samples was demonstrated in BHP’s evaluation of the Don Manuel PCD prospect in Chile which began in 2013 [R4]: “ In essence, the University of Bristol research demonstrates that what remains of the Don Manuel system was too hot to host an economic copper porphyry deposit” (VP Copper Exploration, BHP). Further, ‘[this work] has impacted the final [evaluation] stage of the exploration process, where most of the expenses are generated and the decisions of moving forward are taken. This research was key to our decision not to drill further, which we estimate saved BHP approximately 3 to 4 drill holes or approximately $US 5,000,000 [09-2019] .” (VP Copper Exploration, BHP) [S6].

In 2017, application of Bristol PCD's understanding of the architecture and dynamics of PCD forming systems [R1, R2] enabled BHP to reinterpret old exploration data and to locate quickly areas with good potential [S7]. BHP’s Head of Exploration in North America writes: “ Thanks to [Bristol PCD’s] work, BHP has refined its North American copper exploration strategy… bringing forward not only areas to explore but, critically, areas to no longer explore” [S7]. Quantifying the value of avoided exploration is difficult, but BHP believe it to be millions of USD, as well as years of exposure to health and safety hazards [S7].

Supergene PCD deposits: Identification of prospective terranes including areas under cover

Bristol PCD’s landscape evolution maps completed in 2017 [R5] have directly influenced BHP’s ability to define areas unlikely to host supergene deposits. “Based on this map, the company was able to avoid specific areas to explore. Reducing the search space allowed BHP to focus on other key areas, not spend unnecessary funds, and time in areas of lesser prospectivity. This work saved the company at least USD5-10 million [09-2019] in drilling fees and associated costs. It has also refined our exploration strategy to focus on areas that are predicted to have experienced the right conditions for [supergene] enrichment.” (VP Copper Exploration, BHP) [S8]. This work has been particularly important in northern Chile where much of the area has been buried beneath volcanic deposits. Further research on volcanic deposits by Bristol PCD, finished in 2016 [R6], demonstrated the importance of using cutting-edge volcanology to detect under-cover targets. “ It is only with [such] regional analyses that BHP is able to keep a competitive edge in their exploration programme.” (VP Copper Exploration, BHP) [S8].

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The Volcanology Group at UoB has a wealth of experience in responding to volcanic emergencies which has established UoB researchers in key leadership roles in collaborative efforts to reduce volcanic risk. The UoB researchers work with the public and private sector, through all phases of the Disaster Risk Reduction cycle, and have conducted knowledge transfer activities in 32 countries, including 19 ODA recipients. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) have hailed UoB’s “‘ research prowess in volcanology and their convening power to engage and co-ordinate the international volcanology community”^5-10. The UK Department for International Development (DFID) state “ the research and datasets produced by … Bristol’s Volcanology Group [are] valuable underpinning resources for our decision-making” ^5-4 and the US Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) state that UoB’s work has “ changed the way in which volcanic hazard and risk is managed on a global basis”^5-5. Further testament to their achievements, the Volcanology Group were awarded the Queen’s Anniversary Prize in 2015 – an institutional award which honoured the outstanding importance and quality of UoB’s work to reduce volcanic risks ( www.queensanniversaryprizes.org.uk).

1. Informing international policy and aid. The Global Assessment of Risk (GAR) is the flagship report of the United Nations on worldwide efforts to reduce disaster risk. The 2015 report (GAR15) was the first to consider volcanic risk and, as co-leader of GVM, UoB co-ordinated scientists from 80 countries in the development of the report. UoB’s scientists led or contributed to all four background papers on Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk^5-1 and UoB’s system of robust indices³-¹ provided the foundation for the report’s 86 Country Hazard and Risk Profiles. GAR15 produced “the conceptual framing and evidence for the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction”³-⁵ which provides UN member states with concrete actions to protect development gains from the risk of disaster and was adopted in 2015. The ability to assess volcanic risk on a global scale for the first time demonstrates how UoB’s research has built the scientific foundation necessary for the UN to signal volcanic hazards as a policy priority to their member states^5-2.

UoB’s risk metrics, developed for GAR15, have been widely adopted to advocate for funding and to inform authorities and decision-making. The insurance brokers Willis Towers Watson (WTW) describe them as “ a breakthrough in providing global volcanic risk metrics, which suit the needs of a variety of end-users, uniting academia, public sector, civil society and the private sector with a common language for risk … allowing for the cross-sector collaboration necessary to strengthen resilience.” The metrics underpin weekly assessments of volcanism for DFID and the European Response Coordination Centre (ERCC)^5-3. DFID^5-4 explain “ We rely on the Bristol data … to allow us to rapidly start deploying resources (including people and aid) to the area affected”. During the 2018 eruption of Fuego, Guatemala, initial humanitarian reports indicated a large response from DFID was required, but “ By using the GAR data… we quickly understood that the number affected was far lower … thus saving man-hours and funds and allowing a more appropriate response”^5-4. The British Geological Survey state that the national risk rankings have been critical in “ drawing attention to volcanic hazard among government departments who in some cases were apparently unaware that such threats existed”^5-3. The volcanic risk component of GAR15 is openly accessible and has reached a wide audience: >46,000 downloads of open-access book chapters^3-1 ( www.cambridge.org/volcano) and >3,900 downloads of risk data from UNOCHA Humanitarian Data Exchange ( https://data.humdata.org/dataset/volcano-population-exposure-index-gvm).

2. Supporting crisis response. UoB’s expertise in volcanic risk and remote monitoring has resulted in urgent requests for assistance from observatories, the UK government (BGS, DFID) and the US Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP)^5-5. Here we select three recent volcanic crises which illustrate some of the ways in which UoB’s research has been used operationally.

Institutional Disaster Response. The 2018 eruption of Fuego, Guatemala, is one of the deadliest eruptions of the 21^st century and is thought to have resulted in up to 3,000 fatalities. UoB’s satellite monitoring expertise and a 20-year collaborative relationship with Guatemala’s national hazards agency, INSIVUMEH, meant UoB was selected to manage the International Disasters Charter response ( https://disasterscharter.org) to the eruption, through which 17 space agencies make satellite data freely available to those affected by disasters. INSIVUMEH state that “ the information was used to manage the crisis by providing up-to-date information of the volcano’s behaviour and also the location of buildings buried beneath the ash deposits”^5-7.

Reducing the impact of evacuations. In 2014, a series of seismic crises at the previously quiescent volcanic complex of Chiles-Cerro Negro, Ecuador, raised concerns of a possible large eruption. The Risk Management Ministry raised the volcanic alert level from Yellow to Orange on 21/10/14, triggering evacuation of about 3,500 families. UoB provided satellite InSAR data and analysis to the observatory (IG-EPN), which was fundamental in the decision to lower the alert level back to Yellow on 26/11/14^5-5,5-6. This meant that “ evacuees could return home, and that disruption and socio-economic losses were minimised by avoiding a prolonged evacuation”^5-6.

Safety of scientists and emergency responders. In 2018, New Zealand’s research and monitoring institute, GNS Science^5-8, used UoB’s volcanic fatality data^3-2 to develop the Volcano Life Risk Estimator (VoLREst), a world-first operational product and a key part of GNS Science’s Health and Safety protocols. GNS state that UoB’s fatality data provided “ key validation of the hazards considered in the VoLREst tool”^5-8. Following the 2019 Whakaari eruption, in which 21 people lost their lives, VoLREst was used to assess safety and aid decision-making in body recovery operations^5-8. In the hours after the eruption, UoB’s fatality data was used to brief Police and Fire and Emergency in support of their eruption response^5-8.

3. Improved monitoring capacity. UoB’s research has been used to advocate for investment in capacity building and monitoring in several countries that the GAR15 identified as having high-risk active volcanoes and limited capabilities. Here we highlight two examples from Latin America and East Africa which demonstrate the ways in which UoB research has supported countries with dramatically different monitoring capabilities.

Latin America: According to GAR15, over 130 million people live within 100km of a volcano in Latin America. Following the 2018 eruption of Fuego, Guatemala, the work of international scientists led by the US Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) and UoB was “ important in allowing Guatemala to secure a $200M loan from the World Bank to quickly mobilize resources in the aftermath of adverse natural events…”^5-5 . Specifically, UoB researchers were “ instrumental in demonstrating the need for improvements in monitoring … using evidence from GAR15 comparing in country monitoring capacity and risk levels”^5-7. Guatemala’s national hazard agency, INSIVUMEH, state that UoB’s ongoing collaboration has enabled “capacity building in both monitoring resources and the training of staff in cutting-edge monitoring techniques, which help us to respond to developing volcanic emergencies in the forecasting of activity and supporting decision-making, preparedness and emergency response”^5-7 . In contrast, Ecuador has a relatively strong ground-based monitoring capacity. UoB’s use of satellite data during the 2014 Chiles-Cerro Negro seismic crisis has inspired the volcano observatory, IG-EPN, to use satellite data for monitoring high-risk, physically inaccessible volcanoes^5-6. IG-EPN state “ The training, workshop and exchanges with Bristol have inspired and helped to develop our processing of satellite data in house rather than rely solely on international collaborations”^5-6.

East Africa: According to GAR15, over 120 million people live within 100km of a volcano in Africa and the Red Sea. UoB’s work has been instrumental in communicating volcanic risk and building capacity within Ethiopian governmental organisations^5-9. Since 2005, UoB have worked with the Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy (IGSSA)^5-9 on a range of NERC-funded projects which IGSSA state have “improved the knowledge of volcanism in Ethiopia and provided evidence and support for our national geohazard monitoring strategy”^5-9. Motivated by UoB’s satellite surveys, the joint deployment of temporary seismic and geodetic networks has enabled IGSSA to develop their own volcano monitoring strategy. Since 2014, IGSSA have expanded Ethiopia’s national network to include two real-time seismic and seven GPS stations specifically designed to monitor volcanoes. Exchange visits have increased capacity through the training of IGSSA staff members^5-9. IGSSA state that “ a major change is an increased awareness of volcanic hazards and risk within the government and disaster risk reduction communities, culminating in the formation of a multi-organisational geohazard focus group”^5-9. This prompted the National Disaster Risk Management Commission to publicly announce in 2019 “ a paradigm shift from managing geohazard crises to managing risks”^5-9. The BGS describe this as “a step-change in the understanding of volcanism and volcanic hazards in the Main Ethiopian Rift, greater awareness within the Ethiopian government and stakeholder groups, and valuable capacity building through instrumentation and training of personnel in satellite monitoring techniques”^5-3 .

4. Raising public awareness. UoB’s research^3-1 identified significant gaps in public awareness of volcanic hazards, which led the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)'s Challenge Fund Program to fund UoB in leading the VolFilm project ( https://vimeo.com/volfilm; USD200,000). VolFilm has produced 14 educational films on volcanic hazards and impacts in six languages. The Smithsonian Institution’s volcano outreach specialist^5-10, often considered the world’s leading media commentator on volcanology, explains that the films successfully improve people’s understanding: “ I saw a clear reduction in the number of questions I was asked when I shared these films… a testament to how successful they are in relaying important information.. crucial to individuals and communities who need to make critical decisions”^5-10. The films have been viewed in over 90 countries. For example, Nuevo Mundo^5-11, a media group in Guatemala, shared VolFilm’s pyroclastic flow video on Facebook to combat misinformation during the 2018 Fuego eruption. Literacy rates in the area are low and the press and public believed the hazard to be lava rather than pyroclastic flows^5-11. The video effectively explained the impacts of pyroclastic flows and was subsequently viewed ~2 million times with >40,000 shares^5-11. Nuevo Mundo state “ this video helped people help themselves”^5-11, and one viewer commented, “ *This is the information that people living around volcanoes need to know!*”^5-11.

5. New models of financing disaster relief. Financial losses from volcanic eruptions between 1980-2019 totalled about USD12 billion globally. Due to the challenges associated with assessing volcanic risk, only USD1.2 billion were insuredFootnote:

https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters-losses-are-trending-upwards/volcanic-eruptions-the-earths-ring-of-fire.html#111129733 . UoB’s development of volcanic databases and the quantification of global risk in GAR15 has driven the development of novel insurance products. The insurance brokers Willis Towers Watson (WTW) state “Bristol’s work has significantly advanced the potential for volcanic eruption risk modelling and supported the accurate pricing of risk-based insurance policies”^5-2. For example, following the publication of GAR15 and the Sendai Framework, the World Bank funded WTW to explore the feasibility of volcanic parametric insurance^5-2. This insurance is a new product that would provide immediate financing to governments and vulnerable communities during volcanic emergencies. By linking the pay-out to event parameters rather than damage, finance can be released without the need for time-consuming impact assessments. UoB researchers formed part of the WTW-led project consortium and provided the expertise, datasets and risk metrics (e.g. 3.1, 3.2, 3.3) needed to build models for financial decision making. The project developed a Volcanic Risk Financing Roadmap^5-2 and, crucially, led to the development of a World Bank investment case. WTW comment this has significantly advanced “ the potential for parametric insurance policies to be developed by the World Bank and others”^5-2.

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1. The UK Shale Gas Industry: Impacts on regulators and operators

The shale gas (‘fracking’) industry is valued globally at over USD40 billion per year. The British Geological Survey estimates the UK has a resource of 1,200 trillion cubic feet of shale gas, with an economic value of approximately GBP1 trillion, could it be extracted safely. However, fracking remains controversial as a method of resource extraction with high levels of public concern surrounding induced seismicity in particular. BUMPS researchers have worked closely with the regulators of the shale gas industry, the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) and the Environment Agency (EA), to reach significant safety decisions on shale gas development in the UK. The OGA’s Head of Onshore Exploration and Development states UoB’s research “has provided us with significant insight into understanding the risk of induced seismicity and supported our evidence base for the operational and policy decisions” [Evidence a] and the EA’s Principal Scientist notes that the research “ is being used in helping to inform day to day operational and regulatory decisions” [b]. All three major hydraulic fracturing companies in the UK (Third Energy, IGas and Cuadrilla) approached BUMPS to help ensure safe conduct with respect to induced seismicity and the potential for shallow groundwater contamination. IGas state “ The contribution made by BUMPS to the debate was extremely valuable as it took a rigorous and analytical approach” [c].

Presented here is a timeline of key actions and decisions underpinned by BUMPS research, starting with the development of Hydraulic Fracture Plans (HFPs) and culminating in the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy’s (BEIS) decision to impose a moratorium on fracking in 2019.

Hydraulic Fracture Plans (HFPs) (2017-2019). Hydraulic Fracture Plans (HFPs) describe the actions that an operator will take to minimise the risks of induced seismicity and to ensure that hydraulic fractures do not propagate beyond the target zone where they could potentially pose a risk of groundwater contamination by fluids used in fracking. Produced by operators, HFPs must be approved by both the OGA and EA before operations can commence.

BUMPS researchers worked with both operators and regulators to develop and assess HFPs. For operators, the researchers designed geophysical monitoring arrays using full waveform analysis methods [1], and developed safety protocols that in 2017 formed the basis of Third Energy’s HFP [d], and of operational plans for IGas in 2019 [c]. IGas’ Senior Geophysicist states that IGas “ incorporated the designs developed by the [UoB] group” into their planned microseismic deployment [c], and BUMPS’ “ capability assessments have been factored into [IGas’] well designs” [c]. In particular, BUMPS demonstrated that an existing well would provide sufficient monitoring to meet regulatory requirements, thereby removing the need to drill an additional well [c], which typically costs several million GBP. For Third Energy, one of the first shale gas developers in the UK, BUMPS researchers designed surface and downhole microseismic monitoring arrays for their planned hydraulic fracturing at the KM-8 well in North Yorkshire [d]. These arrays were installed and calibrated in November 2017. BUMPS researchers further designed the decision-making protocols and risk mitigation measures that Third Energy agreed to apply if a larger seismic event were to occur. Third Energy’s HFP for the KM-8 well is lead-authored by a BUMPS researcher, James Verdon, reflecting BUMPS’ involvement in Third Energy’s planning [d]. This was the first HFP to receive regulatory approval from the OGA and EA.

In terms of regulatory assessment of HFPs, the EA had little experience with microseismic monitoring or induced seismicity prior to 2017. Thus, in 2017-18, a BUMPS researcher, Anna Stork, spent 6 months embedded at the EA where she trained over 70 EA staff in geophysical monitoring and provided expertise to ensure appropriate regulation of hydraulic fracturing [b]. The EA’s Principal Scientist states that, as a consequence, EA staff are now “better able to specify information required for regulatory purposes, from industry about their proposals” and “better equipped to deal with questions from the public and freedom of information requests” [b]. Webinar and workshop materials produced by BUMPS are retained in EA’s library of training resources [b].

Implementing the Traffic Light Scheme (October 2018-2019). In 2012, the OGA proposed a Traffic Light Scheme to regulate induced seismicity based on the magnitude of microseismic events; operators must pause and assess activities if a ‘red’ event (over M 0.5) occurs. Since the UK magnitude scale at the time produced systematic errors when applied to microseismicity [3], the British Geological Survey responded by adopting BUMPS’ newly-revised local magnitude scale for all magnitude calculations in the UK in 2018 [3]. This was done in preparation for Cuadrilla’s Preston New Road site - the first hydraulic fracturing operations in 7 years and the first use of the scheme [a].

Distinguishing Natural and Induced Seismicity (2018). In 2018, a sequence of earthquakes with magnitudes up to 3.2 occurred near Newdigate in southeast England. Media reportsFootnote:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk\-england\-44727326 (and some academics) attributed this earthquake sequence to nearby oil drilling activities (by UKOG and Angus Energy). BUMPS researchers were invited by the OGA to join a panel of experts convened to assess the events in October 2018 [e]. This panel judged that the events were natural and, therefore, the OGA took no further regulatory action, allowing operators to continue their activities [a]. The panel also concluded that existing methods for distinguishing between natural and induced seismicity were not fit for purpose. BUMPS researchers therefore created a scheme capable of handling observational uncertainties [5] that the OGA states “ is a significant improvement and the OGA will use this scheme to assess future cases of potential induced seismicity” [a], i.e. where earthquakes occur near an oilfield and it is unclear whether they are induced or natural.

Real-time Forecasting and Mitigation (Q4 2018-Q3 2019). Cuadrilla began operations at the Preston New Road site in 2018, first working on the PNR-1z well in Q4 2018, followed by the PNR-2 well in Q3 2019. The abilities and reputation of the BUMPS group is such that both the regulator (the OGA) and the operator (Cuadrilla) chose to embed BUMPS researchers in their organisations during these activities. Cuadrilla used BUMPS’ event magnitude forecasting capabilities to guide their operational controls on induced seismicity. A paper lead-authored by Cuadrilla’s Senior Geoscientist [f] states that “ this approach was used in real time to make operational decisions during hydraulic fracturing operations”, and that “ this information allowed [Cuadrilla] to adjust its injection program, ensuring that levels of seismicity did not exceed the overall objectives set by the regulator”. For the OGA, BUMPS’ microseismic analysis and interpretation “ inform[ed] decisions made [by the OGA] with respect to restarting operations after a “red” event was detected during operations” [a].

At PNR-1z, BUMPS’ forecasting model [4] had predicted that magnitudes would not exceed M 2. Hence, even though events had reached the precautionary M 0.5 red light threshold on several occasions, the operator was able " to proceed with confidence that the hydraulic stimulation was unlikely to cause reactivation of the larger faults that had been identified” [f], and to be sure that “ the levels of seismicity would not exceed the objectives set by the OGA, and therefore injection could be conducted safely” [f]. As such, Cuadrilla could continue operations without needing to adjust their injection plans, using full injection volumes and pressures for all available stages [f]. For the regulator, BUMPS’ models and interpretations provided the scientific basis to allow the operations to proceed [a]. The largest event magnitude at PNR-1z was M 1.5, a level that can barely be felt at the surface and is far too small to cause damage.

At PNR-2, BUMPS’ analysis showed the onset of interaction between hydraulic fractures and a potentially seismogenic fault, and the forecasting model predicted that magnitudes might exceed M 2.5. A paper co-authored by BUMPS researchers and Cuadrilla’s geologists shows that “ the operator was able to identify the increased rate of seismicity relative to the PNR-1z well and adjusted the injection program to reduce the likelihood of further fault interaction” [f], by increasing the injection fluid viscosity and reducing the injected fluid volumes by two-thirds. Despite these adjustments, seismicity continued, and the largest event magnitude reached M 2.9. This event was widely felt in the towns of Preston and Blackpool and some media reports indicated potential minor damage at nearby propertiesFootnote:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk\-england\-lancashire\-50202033 . Evidently, the operator’s adjustments failed to prevent larger events from occurring, but this example demonstrated that BUMPS’ forecasting model was able to identify that a larger event was likely, and that this information was acted upon by the operator. Following the M 2.9 event, BUMPS’ updated forecasts showed that events with magnitudes larger than M 3 might be expected if operations were to continue. On this basis, the OGA halted all hydraulic fracturing activities at the Preston New Road site [a].

Informing the Moratorium (November 2019). Following the seismicity at the PNR site, the OGA commissioned BUMPS researchers in 2019 to write two reports, on the geomechanical interaction between hydraulic fractures and faults, and on forecasting of magnitudes [g]. These BUMPS’ contributions [g] were two of just four reports used in the subsequent OGA report (published November 2019) which analysed induced seismicity at PNR-1z [h]. On the day of the OGA report’s publication, the UK government announced a moratorium on fracking. BEIS stated that “ Ministers took the decision on the basis of [the] report by the Oil and Gas Authority” [h]. This demonstrates BUMPS’ prominent role in guiding and influencing this highly significant government decision.

2. Impacts beyond hydraulic fracturing: Hinkley Point C construction

BUMPS’ expertise in microseismicity has also brought economic and efficiency benefits for the construction industry, as evidenced by the case of the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station. Previously, the constructors (Kier BAM) had used engineering judgement to assess disturbance at construction sites, meaning that slopes were over-engineered to ensure a safety margin. In 2017, BUMPS provided quantitative assessment methods for Hinkley Point C’s construction which allowed Kier BAM to measure rock disturbance more precisely, thereby reducing the amount of slope-stability engineering used. “[The] results of [BUMPS’] geophysical surveys … culminated in a reduction in the slopes construction programme of circa 4 weeks, saving labour and material costs of approximately £225,000. More significantly, a reduction in the slopes construction programme has the potential to benefit the overall station construction programme.” [Technical Manager, Kier Bam Earthworks Joint Venture] [i]. In addition to direct labour and material savings, the impact of the reduction in construction programme by 4 weeks, given a strike price of GBP92.5/MWh and a generation capacity of 1600MWeFootnote:

https://www.world\-nuclear\-news.org/NP\-Hinkley\-Point\-C\-contract\-terms\-08101401.html , has a value of over GBP100,000,000.

3. Spin-off company and International Impact: Outer Limits Geophysics LLP

BUMPS has a “ strong, international reputation in the use of microseismic monitoring” [Chief Technology Officer, Petoro AS] [j]. Its research, therefore, led to the creation of a profitable consultancy company, Outer Limits Geophysics LLP (OLG), which has global reach and “an annual turnover of £50,000 - £60,000 per year on average” since its inception in 2014. OLG have provided seismic monitoring services in Saskatchewan; acted as expert witnesses for hearings on induced seismicity in Alberta, Canada; performed array design, data analysis and interpretation for a hydraulic fracturing operator in Argentina; designed geophysical arrays for monitoring geomechanical deformation in the North Sea; and monitored for induced seismicity for a hydraulic fracturing operator in the Thrace Basin, Turkey [j]. The lead geophysicists for OLG state “ As a spin-out company from the BUMPS Project at the University of Bristol, our success as a consultancy service is entirely predicated on the high quality and international reputation of the BUMPS group.” [j].

The transport of ash by the wind can result in dispersion over vast areas at heights where aircraft fly. The ash poses a severe hazard to airframes and engines, requiring mitigating restrictions on flight operations. A notable example affecting the UK was the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) which resulted in extended closure of airspace, the cancellation of more than 100,000 flights and an estimated economic loss across all sectors of USD5 billion. The research conducted by UoB has led to safer air travel and demonstrable impacts which benefit the aerospace industry, airlines, airspace management and the military. These impacts continue to mitigate the level of disruption by ash in the UK airspace seen in 2010.

1. Ash-tolerant engines for Rolls-Royce

Triggered by the 2010 crisis, Rolls-Royce approached the UoB researchers in 2011 and instigated a collaborative project (running 2011-2017) aimed at minimising aviation disruption caused by volcanic clouds whist maintaining high safety requirements [ 5.1]. In March 2017, Rolls-Royce published a technical note [ 5.1] which established, for the first time for any engine manufacturer, a dosage up to which their engines can tolerate ash and led to a 2018 UK Civil Aviation Authority Flight Safety Award. In developing this dosage, Rolls-Royce relied on underpinning research carried out by UoB, drawing on the new understanding of how ash affects engines [ 3.1, 3.2, noting publication of 3.1 was delayed at the funder’s request] and observations and modelling of volcanic ash clouds [ 3.3-3.6]. The translation of this UoB research into practice represents a wholly new and very valuable approach that is “ ultimately based around engine exposure dose rather than simply ash concentration. [This] will save the aviation industry, and the wider economy, multiple 10s of £millions annually” through reduced disruption and better maintenance regimes (Engine Environmental Protection, Rolls-Royce) [ 5.1].

Rolls-Royce are the first engine manufacturer in the world to do this and, as a result, they are currently the only engine supplier certified to operate in volcanic ash. Rolls-Royce lease their engines to airlines who can now operate in volcanic ash conditions. Rolls-Royce’s engines are thus a more desirable option: “[which] gives Rolls-Royce a competitive advantage when selling aircraft engines to airlines that operate in regions prone to frequent volcanic eruptions, because no other engine manufacturer has the knowledge and capability to allow their customers to use the approach” (Engine Environmental Protection, Rolls-Royce) [ 5.1]. Improvement in understanding of engine exposure and damage mechanisms enables clear boundaries to be defined in terms of responsibility for ash-related damage, reducing Rolls-Royce’s exposure to the costs of ownership. Rolls-Royce estimate the cost of liabilities to be “ over GBP 2billion”, a cost which “ the Bristol group’s knowledge is being used to help reduce” [ 5.1].

1. Better ash forecasting with PlumeRise and robust ash characterisation

Dispersion forecasts for volcanic ash are reliant on inputs to characterise the eruption conditions and ash properties. The British Geological Survey state “ The fundamental research on volcanic plume dynamics at the University of Bristol has contributed greatly to the international effort to better understand and respond to volcanic ash emergencies” [ 5.3]. The London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) is responsible for managing airspace in N. Europe and the N. Atlantic. Underpinning research using the PlumeRise model [ 3.6] resulted in their decision to invest in developing their own operational plume model. This model has increased the capability of the London VAAC to better initialise volcanic ash cloud dispersion models and uses non-spherical particles and two new particle size distributions as a direct result of research carried out at UoB [ 3.3]. This has enabled improved forecasting of the early stages of ash dispersion when there is incomplete knowledge of the ash particle size distribution [ 5.2, 5.3].

The PlumeRise model has an online interface which is available to users globally and, as of March 2020, 500 unique users have requested over 95,000 model runs. Users, who in total represent eight of the nine VAAC regions, include the London, Darwin and Buenos Aires VAACs and the Icelandic Met Office [ 5.4]. The Darwin VAAC now runs a local version which it uses for monitoring Indonesian airspace, one of the world’s busiest for flights, combined with a high density of active, ash-producing volcanoes and have stated “ The PlumeRise model, web-interface and under-pinning research have contributed significantly to the work of VAAC Darwin and the Bureau of Meteorology, and therefore to the management of the ash hazard to aviation within our area of responsibility and more widely through our connections with the global VAAC network. The PlumeRise model supports our operational responsibilities, helping us to provide informative and science-based advice to the aviation industry‘’ [ 5.4]. The model is used operationally many times each year, including for activity from Krakatau in Indonesia and Ulawun in Papua New Guinea in 2020.

The Icelandic Met Office have used PlumeRise in their eruption scenario planning exercises and incorporated it into their forecast and response system. During the Bardarbunga eruption in 2014-2015 the model provided daily, high-quality outputs that allowed for rapid assessment of the risks [ 5.5]. The Icelandic Met Office describe PlumeRise as “ an invaluable tool for assessing potential eruption scenarios and initializing ash dispersion models …. At the time of the recent Holuhraun eruption (2014-15), the PlumeRise model was the only accessible plume model that could run with the real atmosphere” and further “ These outputs were shared in the regular meetings between IMO and the Department for Civil Protection, and would have allowed for rapid assessment and dispersion model initiation had an explosive eruption occurred” [ 5.5]. Through formal communications between the Icelandic Met Office and the UK Met Office, these benefits were passed on to the London VAAC. PlumeRise training has been included in the annual International Training Schools on Convective and Volcanic Clouds Detection Monitoring and Modelling since 2015, reaching over 100 early career practitioner professionals from over 20 countries, as well as established research scientists.

1. Safer military operations for NATO

Watson, Phillips and Brooker of UoB were invited by NATO to co-author a technical report, completed in 2018, for NATO and the UK Ministry of Defence that defines NATO’s position on safe military operations in hostile environments (including desert dusts and sea salt, as well as volcanic ash) [ 5.6]. The UoB team led Chapter 3 of the report, which detailed the current state of the art in satellite remote sensing observations (specifically uncertainties), dispersion modelling and data assimilation, based upon previous research [ 3.3-3.6]. At ~400 pages and ~200,000 words the full report is available to over 2,000,000 NATO personnel as a guide for best practice. The report defines research and development priorities on safe operations in contaminated environments for the 28 countries within NATO. The UK’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) state “ The University of Bristol were responsible for one of the key chapters of the AVT-250 final report that set the context for the EP [Environmental Particulate] problem in aviation. This chapter included: a summary of EP characterisation methods, tools and equipment; the impact of meteorology on EP endurance and its dispersion; and guidance on the likelihood of encounter of EP at critical locations of interest to the NATO Nations when operating in other parts of the world and during different times of the year” [ 5.7].

The former Chief Scientist of US Air Mobility Command, who led two research task group (RTG) efforts in which Watson played a pivotal role, states “ The most significant impact has been the creation of a new research effort, with direct lineage to AVT-RTG-250, in The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) collaboration. TTCP is a collaborative S&T forum among Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United States of America, and the United Kingdom. A recent major program start is “Owning the Extreme Environment”, with the audacious goal of safe operations in conditions previously denied to or avoided by operators. The [NATO AVT-]250 study …helped focus and inform the TTCP. I ... can attest that the structure and methodology Dr. Watson and his team originated to characterize, analyze, and forecast environmental threats will provide a foundation for our study” [ 5.8].

1. Minimising airport closure in Guatemala during volcanic eruptions

UoB research is also informing national responses to volcanic eruptions, helping to minimise economic and societal disruption, continuing the work undertaken for the Icelandic ash crisis. Guatemala has some of the world’s most persistently active explosive volcanoes, two of which lie within 40km of the main airport, La Aurora. The UoB researchers ran a workshop in 2017 to disseminate research on managing airspace in proximity to a volcanic ash source with the Guatemalan Civil Aviation Directorate, DGAC. At this workshop, training in the tools developed by UoB [ 3.1-3.6] was given to over 40 air traffic control staff. As a result, DGAC could ensure that La Aurora airport stayed open during the major eruption of Fuego in 2018, except for a period of about 24 hours on the 3^rd and 4^th of June: “ You [UoB] have run several workshops in the last five years, including with SENACYT (the executive secretariat for STEM in Guatemala), INSIVUMEH and DGAC (the Guatemalan civil aviation authority). They cite you as the key leader advising them in policy making around volcanic ash and aviation safety, and because of this INSIVUMEH were able to pass better information about the eruption to the DGAC more quickly during the eruption” [ 5.9] and “ As a result, DGAC was able to manage the eruptions of February, June and November 2018 with greater certainty and that better understanding enabled us to keep the airport open when otherwise we might have closed it” [ 5.10]. As Guatemala’s only international airport, La Aurora airport is an absolutely vital transport hub serving the entire country and was a critical entry point for overseas aid after the disaster.

1. Queens Anniversary Prize 2015

Testament to the UoB research team’s achievements, they were awarded the Queen’s Anniversary Prize in 2015. The award recognised the “ outstanding research into the risks posed by volcanoes to aviation, developing an innovative computer model for predicting ash plume movement and helping to make airspace safer for the public”.