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- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
Automated zone design methods and AZTool software, developed at the University of Southampton, have enabled more efficient and effective collection and publication of official population statistics, which underpin evidence-based policy, planning and decision-making. There are four strands to the impact: (i) implementation of the AZTool team’s methods by UK national statistical organisations to create official statistics for widespread use, (ii) exploitation of the concepts and methods by others, such as public sector organisations and local authorities, to create complementary data products, (iii) uptake and utilisation of these data products to inform policy and decision-making across a range of sectors including national and local government and business, and (iv) use of the team’s methods to plan and manage the collection of official statistics, notably the 2021 Census.
2. Underpinning research
The design of geographical zones in terms of size, shape, characteristics and placement of boundaries plays a huge role in determining their usefulness for the collection and publication of data and for mapping and analysis. The research underpinning this impact case study involves continuing development and application of Martin, Cockings and Harfoot’s innovative automated zone design methods [ 3.1, 3.2] and AZTool software ( https://www.geodata.soton.ac.uk/software/AZTool/), applied to the design of collection and output geographies for official statistics. These methods were used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to design small residential-based geographical zones for the publication of data from the 2001 Census. These areas are called Output Areas (OAs) and Super Output Areas (SOAs), here termed ‘the OA hierarchy’.
From 2008, the team’s research [ 3.3, Grant A] focused on methods for updating the boundaries of OAs and SOAs to simultaneously accommodate population change, maintain confidentiality and minimise boundary changes. The resulting ‘maintained’ zones were used for publication of data about residents and households from the 2011 Census. They provided, for the first time, a stable set of zones across multiple censuses, facilitating analysis through time.
Due to the very different geographical distributions of residents and workers, residential-based zones are inherently less suited to publication and analysis of data about workers and workplaces. As a result, much workplace data collected by UK censuses prior to 2011 was not published by the national statistical organisations due to confidentiality concerns. From 2009, the team enhanced its automated zone design methods and AZTool software to enable design of an entirely new set of zones (termed Workplace Zones (WZs)) for the publication of workplace data [ 3.4, Grant B]. Working collaboratively with ONS, the team researched and established criteria for the design of WZs. They provided leadership on issues such as confidentiality thresholds, target numbers of workers/workplaces per zone, measures for ensuring internal homogeneity and nesting of zones within existing geographical units, to aid integration with other datasets and through time. This research was carried out as Approved Researchers within a secure setting at ONS.
To provide users with further insights into the characteristics of workers and workplaces at the small area level, the team subsequently developed a geodemographic Classification of Workplace Zones (COWZ). This involved synthesising a wide range of census variables about workers and workplaces into a simplified two-tier classification, which captures the key differences and similarities between areas. A prototype version of COWZ for England and Wales was initially developed by the team with ONS (released 2015), and was later followed by a full UK version with ONS, National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) (released 2018) [ 3.5, Grant B]. The team also carried out novel research using census commuting flow data and COWZ to reveal the relationships between small areas of residence and work [ 3.6].
A new, but complementary, research theme since 2013 has seen the AZTool team enhance their automated zoning methods to facilitate the design of workload areas for collection of data in the field, for example by census enumerators or survey interviewers [ Grants B, C]. Whereas previous versions of AZTool involved aggregation of zones based on adjacency, these new methods permit evaluation of connectivity and associated travel costs when designing zones e.g. whether it is possible for an interviewer to travel from one zone to another via a road network and how much this costs in terms of time/distance. These new metrics can be combined with other measures of interviewer workloads such as likely household response rates, difficulty of access, target numbers of addresses per interviewer, compactness of zones and nesting within specified geographical areas.
The research was funded by various awards to the AZTool team from ESRC, ONS and partners, and University of Southampton. Harfoot has been seconded to ONS during 2016-2021, initially funded by an ESRC Impact Acceleration Account award (52 days, 2016-17) and then by ONS (35 days, 2017-18; 52 days 2018-19; 50 days 2019-20; 36 days 2020-2021), reflecting ongoing commitment to the strategic partnership between UoS and ONS.
3. References to the research
3.1 Martin D, Nolan A, Tranmer M (2001) The application of zone design methodology to the 2001 UK Census, Environment and Planning A, 33(11), 1949-1962 https://doi.org/10.1068/a3497
3.2 Cockings S, Harfoot A, Martin D, Hornby D (2013) Getting the foundations right: spatial building blocks for official population statistics, Environment and Planning A, 45(6), 1403-1420 https://doi.org/10.1068/a45276
3.3 Cockings S, Harfoot A, Martin D, Hornby D (2011) Maintaining existing zoning systems using automated zone design techniques: methods for creating the 2011 Census output geographies for England and Wales, Environment and Planning A, 43(10), 2399-2418 https://doi.org/10.1068/a43601
3.4 Martin D, Cockings S, Harfoot A (2013) Development of a geographical framework for census workplace data, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A – Statistics in Society, 176, 585-602 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2012.01054.x
3.5 Cockings S, Martin D, Harfoot A (2020) Developing a national geodemographic classification of Workplace Zones, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 13, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-020-09337-4
3.6 Martin D, Gale C, Cockings S, Harfoot A (2018) Origin-destination geodemographics for analysis of travel to work flows, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 67, 68-79 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2017.09.002
Grants and other evidence of quality of research
Grant A: Cockings S (2008-10) Towards 2011 output geographies: adapting and evaluating automated zone design methods for maintaining the 2001 output geographies, ESRC Award ES/F035373/1 £77,859
Grant B: Cockings S, Martin D, Harfoot A (2009-20) ONS/QIF/DfT funding for OA/SOA/WZ//COWZ/Collection Geographies research and development £335,061 Award numbers PU-10-0141 (until May 2017) and PU-16-0031-6.009 (June 2017-March 2021)
Grant C: Cockings S, Martin D, Harfoot A (2016-17) Automated zone design for collection geographies (Secondment of A Harfoot to ONS), ESRC Impact Acceleration Account £12,835
4. Details of the impact
The impact relates to the publication and collection of official population statistics and has four strands: (i) implementation of the AZTool team’s methods and tools by UK national statistical organisations to create official statistics for widespread use, (ii) exploitation of the team’s concepts and methods by other organisations to create complementary data products, (iii) utilisation of these data products including by central and local government and business, and (iv) use of the team’s methods and tools to plan and manage the workloads of field staff in the collection of official statistics, notably for the 2021 Census.
(i) The team’s methods and tools have been implemented by UK national statistical organisations. ONS previously employed the AZTool software and automated zone design methods to generate a completely new set of 53,578 small areas, called Workplace Zones (WZs), covering England and Wales (released Jan 2013). As a direct result of these more suitable geographical zones, in May 2014 ONS were able to publish 21 detailed tables of demographic and employment data for workers and workplaces in each of the WZs, compared to just four such tables released for Output Areas (OAs) in 2001 due to confidentiality concerns [ 5.1]. Reviewing these outputs in 2019, ONS noted that “One of the successes… was the advent of workplace zones to help provide a more appropriate geography for workplace statistics, where ONS SDC [Statistical Disclosure Control] worked closely with ONS Geography and University of Southampton to address disclosure risk” which “ allowed more to be provided publicly in all areas across the country, and this particularly benefited some of the origin-destination outputs” [ 5.2].
Following positive user feedback for WZs and strong demand for UK-wide statistics, National Records of Scotland (NRS) and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) requested the creation of WZ boundaries for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Produced by ONS in collaboration with the AZTool team, these were published in 2016, together with associated data for WZs in Scotland. Building on the team’s prototype geodemographic classification of workplace zones for England and Wales (COWZ-EW), a full UK version (COWZ-UK) was produced and published by ONS in 2018 [ 5.3].
(ii) The reach of this impact has continued to grow, as other organisations have adopted the concepts of OAs/SOAs and WZs/COWZ and produced related data products. UK Travel to Work Areas were built from SOAs by Newcastle University/ONS in 2015 and are used in policy and planning by business, central and local government. For their 2016 Census, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) created WZs and released associated data for the Republic of Ireland [ 5.4]. In 2017, the Greater London Authority (GLA) commissioned a bespoke London Workplace Zones Classification [ 5.5]. GLA summarised the power of these new data, which can be used by organisations across London “to help with economic, transport and other planning and to identify appropriate areas for siting projects” [ 5.5]. The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) aggregated potentially disclosive business-level data from ONS’ Inter-Departmental Business Register to WZs, thus enhancing their National Population Database (NPD). “ The use of WZs has allowed HSE to undertake analysis based on comprehensive and annually updated business data which have been statistically controlled to protect data sensitivity”. This has meant that “ de-sensitised data can be shared with external partners for wider research and analysis. Outside of HSE the data have been used for natural hazard risk assessment, emergency planning, and transport planning” [ 5.6]. WZs and COWZ are embedded within Public Health England’s online Strategic Health Asset Planning and Evaluation (SHAPE) Atlas, used by NHS and Local Authority professionals to plan service delivery in health and social care.
(iii) While the most direct impact relates to the production of official statistics, by far the largest group of beneficiaries are the users of small area statistical data, who now have access to detailed information and mapping on populations both at locations of residence and workplace. Since 2014 ONS has provided an Open Geography Portal service from which users can download OA, SOA and WZ digital boundaries and lookup tables, of which there have been more than 80,000 downloads to date [ 5.1].
The new series of workplace-related data products has provided users with greatly enhanced insights into the distribution and characteristics of workers and workplaces at the small area level and is now underpinning planning and decision-making in a range of sectors. Representative examples from local government and business are included here. The City of London Corporation describes WZs as “a valuable tool for analysing workplace data at a local level and being able to clearly identify the spatial patterns and characteristics of the workforce” [ 5.7] . Hampshire County Council has grouped together WZs to permit new insights into the demographic, socio-economic, occupational and travel-to-work characteristics of workers in local ‘employment centres’ in Hampshire [ 5.8]. Greater London Authority has employed WZs and COWZ-EW to explore changes in the number of employees in WZs in London between 2009 and 2015 and to provide in-depth insights into different types of employment clusters across London at the local level [ 5.9]. Hackney Council based its 2015-2025 Transport Strategy on evidence gained from analysis of its resident and workplace populations [ 5.10]. CACI, a key commercial data provider, has generated a unique segmentation of the UK workforce based on WZs (termed Workforce Acorn) for exploitation by clients in a range of sectors [ 5.11].
New and ongoing impact of the OA hierarchy is evidenced by its adoption as a common non-disclosive geography for data aggregation and sharing between different agencies. A key example is the 2015 and 2019 Indices of Deprivation, constructed by the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government as the official measure of relative deprivation in England, based on the 2011 SOAs. These “ are used by national and local organisations to identify places for prioritising resources and more effective targeting of funding” [ 5.12]
Most recently, ONS and the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) combined the unique workplace and residential perspectives provided by the WZ and SOA geographies to inform national response to the COVID-19 pandemic [ 5.13]: (a) The WZ geography has provided the ideal basis for aggregation of potentially disclosive data on businesses and employees from the Inter-Departmental Business Register, permitting the estimation of industry-related COVID-19 risk. This workplace data has been combined with SOA-level residential characteristics to inform decisions about local lockdowns. (b) The SOA geography has been employed for integration of data from a wide variety of sources (including the Indices of Deprivation and industrial risk) to construct a COVID-19 risk index. These data have been linked to wastewater catchment areas to identify areas at greatest risk. This information has been used to inform targeted sampling to detect virus RNA in wastewater to provide early warnings of outbreaks.
(iv) The team’s most recent enhancements to AZTool enable the design of efficient and effective workload areas for the collection of data in the field. This functionality is now firmly embedded in ONS’ 2021 Census fieldforce management processes and is being explored for use in survey design [ 5.1]. AZTool was used to design Coordinator Areas for managing workloads of field staff for the 2019 Census Rehearsal and Interviewer Areas for the 2019 Census Coverage Survey Rehearsal. These were the precursors to the full 2021 Census and 2021 Census Coverage Survey. The ability of AZTool to rapidly and repeatedly design zones using different criteria was exploited by ONS to evaluate different sample designs and associated cost implications for the 2021 Census Coverage Survey, informing the decision to retain a two-stage sampling method based on OAs and postcodes.
Significance and long-term sustainability of impact. This is evidenced through ONS’ confirmed plans for 2021 Census design. ONS’ user consultations revealed strong demand for OAs, SOAs and WZs, and their associated data products, to be continued as 2021 census outputs. “Engagement with users on the value of the OA and WZ geographies continues to demonstrate a great deal of support for the principles of stability, comparability over time and continuity with outputs from previous censuses” and “the OA hierarchy (OAs, [SOAs] , WZs) for which census outputs will be presented will remain largely unchanged to enable comparability with both 2001 and 2011 Census results” [ 5.14]. These outputs will be produced using the AZTool team’s automated design and maintenance methods, which are now well-established in-house within ONS [ 5.1].
Beyond UK official statistics, the AZTool team has provided expert advice on automated zone design to analysts in a range of sectors, many of whom have employed AZTool for analysis. These include UK local boundary reform, utilities and sports management, cancer surveillance in the US, and design of new census output geographies for South Africa and Costa Rica.
The impact of this research was recognised in 2015 through the Royal Geographical Society’s Back Award to Martin “for influencing policy with respect to the Census and its applications”. One award is made annually for applied or scientific geographical studies which make an outstanding contribution to the development of national or international public policy [ 5.15].
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1 Testimonial from Director of Population and Public Policy Operations, Office for National Statistics
5.2 Spicer K (2019) Statistical Disclosure Control (SDC) for 2021 UK Census. Paper EAP125, UK Statistics Authority, Methodological Assurance Review panel – Census https://uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/about-the-authority/committees/methodological-assurance-review-panel-census/papers/ (see final para, p30-31)
5.3 Office for National Statistics (2018) Classification of Workplace Zones (COWZ-UK) https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/geography/geographicalproducts/areaclassifications/2011workplacebasedareaclassification (see page 17, section 6)
5.4 Testimonial from Census Geography Department, Central Statistics Office, Ireland
5.5 Greater London Authority (2017) ADD2111 Production of a Classification of Workplace Zones https://www.london.gov.uk/decisions/add2111-production-classification-workplace-zones (see section 1.9)
5.6 Testimonial from Head of Science Impact and Quality, Health and Safety Executive
5.7 City of London Corporation (2014) City of London Workforce CENSUS 2011 – Introduction, No longer online - copy in REF document repository (see p. 12, para 1)
5.8 Hampshire County Council (2014) Census 2011 Workplace Zones: Examples of Workplace Population Data https://documents.hants.gov.uk/Economy/ExamplesofWorkplaceZones.pdf (see entire document, but particularly section 3, page 12 onwards, on Employment Centres)
5.9 Greater London Authority (2016) Economic Evidence Base for London 2016 https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/economic_evidence_base_2016.compressed.pdf (see section 2.61, including Maps 2.21 & 2.2, pages 76-77; and Maps B6 & B7, pages 646-647)
5.10 Hackney London Borough Council (2015) Hackney Transport Strategy 2015-2025: Evidence Base Paper 1: Census 2011 Travel to Work Data-Transport Analysis https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tu4p_CGFB29e-nBExceDR72Br-RsTLqE/view (see Section 5: Travel patterns and characteristics of Hackney’s Workplace Population, page 28 onwards)
5.11 Workforce CACI (2015) Acorn product sheet https://www.caci.co.uk/sites/default/files/resources/Workforce_Acorn_product_sheet.pdf
5.12 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2019) The English Indices of Deprivation 2019, Research Report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/833947/IoD2019_Research_Report.pdf [see pages 7-8]
5.13 Testimonial from Deputy Director, Innovation and Partnerships Hub, Joint Biosecurity Centre
5.14 HM Government (2018) Help Shape Our Future: The 2021 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales (2021 Census White Paper) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/765089/Census2021WhitePaper.pdf (see sections 5.36 and 5.37, pages 101-102)
5.15 Royal Geographical Society (with IBG) (2015) Back Award. Citation: David Martin “for influencing policy with respect to the census and its applications” https://www.publishersweekly.com/binary-data/NEWS_BRIEFS/attachment/000/000/192-1.pdf (see page 3)
- Submitting institution
- University of Southampton
- Unit of assessment
- 14 - Geography and Environmental Studies
- Summary impact type
- Political
- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
The University of Southampton’s WorldPop research programme was established in October 2013. Research within the programme led by Tatem, Sorichetta and Utazi (supported by other WorldPop staff) into the improvement of spatial demographic evidence has led to a series of innovations in the construction of consistent and high resolution population maps through integrating census, survey and satellite-based data. The outputs have formed the basis for estimation of populations at risk of disease, and for planning purposes by governments, UN agencies and others around the world. This includes production of new national statistics used by the government, UN and World Bank in Afghanistan, population maps that have formed the basis of polio elimination in Nigeria, the spatial demographic basis for the World Health Organization’s (WHO) malaria burden estimates in Africa, as well as multiple government health information systems and COVID-19 response efforts around the world.
2. Underpinning research
The global human population is growing by more than 80 million a year, with the vast majority of this growth concentrated in low and middle income countries. Detailed spatial data on population distributions and characteristics are a prerequisite for the accurate measurement of impacts of growth, for planning interventions and monitoring progress towards development goals. While high income countries have extensive mapping resources and expertise at their disposal to create such data, these are either lacking or of poor quality across low income regions, forming a major obstacle to planning of services and intervention targeting.
Southampton’s WorldPop research group, led by Tatem, have been developing methods for improving the spatial demographic evidence base in low and middle income countries since October 2013. The underlying research involves development of spatial statistical algorithms for the integration of more 'traditional' sources of demographic data, such as censuses and household surveys, with newer digital datasets derived from GPS, digital boundaries, satellite imagery and elsewhere. WorldPop’s algorithms produce estimates of population counts, demographics and characteristics per 100x100m or 1x1km grid squares across countries, together with associated metadata and measures of uncertainty. The benefits of such methods and outputs include: (i) a set of flexible open tools that can be adapted to different environments and levels of data availability; (ii) sufficient spatial detail to support targeting of interventions for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals; and (iii) a flexible format to facilitate summarization at different spatial scales and integration with diverse data sets (e.g. locations of health facilities to estimate catchment population sizes).
Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Tatem’s WorldPop team developed and applied random forests-based machine learning approaches for disaggregating census counts or estimates at administrative unit levels (e.g. for enumeration area or ward boundaries) to high resolution 100x100m gridded population counts structured by age and sex classes [e.g. 3.1]. These approaches have been scaled to global extents, producing outputs for the 2000-2020 period in collaboration with Columbia University. Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), methods have been adapted to map births and pregnancies across low and middle income countries [ 3.2].
Where census-based population counts are outdated or inaccurate, WorldPop have developed Bayesian geostatistical methods for the production of gridded population count and age/sex structures through the integration of small area microcensus surveys with geospatial covariate data, in collaboration with various low and middle income country governments [ 3.3, 3.4]. This work has been funded through awards from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) (formerly UK Department for International Development (DfID)) and UNFPA. Additional funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Data2X (a programme promoting data on gender) led to the adaptation of these geostatistical approaches to the high resolution mapping of population characteristics and intervention coverages (e.g. poverty, vaccination coverage, literacy) from GPS-located household survey data and collaboration with governments [ 3.5, 3.6].
3. References to the research
3.1 Sorichetta, A., Hornby, G. M., Stevens, F. R., Gaughan, A. E., Linard, C., & Tatem, A. J. (2015). High-resolution gridded population datasets for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2010, 2015, and 2020. Scientific Data, 2, 150045. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.45
3.2 James, W. H. M., Tejedor Garavito, N., Hanspal, S. E., Sutton, A., Hornby, G., Pezzulo, C., ... Tatem, A. (2018). Gridded birth and pregnancy datasets for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. Scientific Data, 5, [180090]. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.90
3.3 Wardrop, N., Jochem, W., Bird, T., Chamberlain, H., Clarke, D., Kerr, D., Bengtsson, L., Juran, S., Seaman, V. & Tatem, A. (2018). Spatially disaggregated population estimates in the absence of national population and housing census data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) 115 (14) 3529-3537 . https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1715305115
3.4 Leasure, D., Jochem, W., Weber, E., Seaman, V. & Tatem, A.J. (2020). National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty. PNAS 117 (39) 24173-24179 . https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1913050117
3.5 Bosco, C., Alegana, V., Bird, T., Pezzulo, C., Bengtsson, L., Sorichetta, A., Steele, J., Hornby, G., Ruktanonchai, C., Ruktanonchai, N., Wetter, E., & Tatem, A.J. (2017). Exploring the high-resolution mapping of gender-disaggregated development indicators . Journal of the Royal Society Interface 14: 20160825 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0825
3.6 Utazi, C.E., Wagai, j., Pannell, O., Cutts, F.T., Rhoda, D.A., Ferrari, M.J., Dieng, B., Oteri, J., Danovaro-Holliday, M.C., Adeniran, A., & Tatem, A.J. (2020). Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys. Vaccine, 3 38(14): 3062–3071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.02.070
Awards underpinning impact:
This work was underpinned by 40 research awards, including projects totalling more than $20M from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and other awards from the Wellcome Trust, UNFPA, FCDO, UN Foundation, Belgian Science Foundation and World Bank.
4. Details of the impact
The development and implementation of methods for population mapping in the absence of adequate census data has resulted in a range of impacts:
-Service delivery and public health planning in Afghanistan: Collaboration with UNFPA and the government of Afghanistan in 2015-17 produced new spatially detailed population estimates. These were presented by Tatem in Kabul to President Ghani, his cabinet, heads of UN agencies and multiple diplomats and ambassadors in late 2017. WorldPop’s estimates have since been adopted by the UN and many other international organizations in the country and are undergoing cabinet approval to become the new official government population statistics, replacing projections from the last census in 1979 [ 5.1]. The estimates have since been used continuously in planning and implementing polio vaccination in the country by the government and the WHO’s polio eradication initiative, as well as by the government and World Bank in designing new household surveys [ 5.1]. In both cases the modelled estimates have replaced 1979 projections to produce more reliable, precise and efficient approaches.
- Public health and education planning by Nigeria’s government: Similar population modelling in Nigeria has been used to plan polio elimination efforts since 2014, after the 2006 census data proved to be too inaccurate. The switch to the modelled estimates for assessment of needs, planning vaccination strategies and operational implementation contributed to successful delivery of vaccination and the elimination of polio in the country in 2015. Evidence from post-campaign coverage surveys showed that where the modelled estimates were used to plan vaccination in northern Nigeria, no areas were found to have unvaccinated children, compared to the south where children in at least ten of the sampled settlements were found to have been missed [ 5.2]. As the Nigerian National Primary Health Care Development Agency notes [ 5.2] “Outbreaks fell to zero and have stayed there. These innovations did more than help eradicate polio in northern Nigeria”. The data are currently used in the national vaccination tracking system [ 5.3], have fed into the National Surgical, Obstetrics, Anaesthesia & Nursing Plan (NSOANP) for Nigeria, and are used by the Ministry of Education (UBEC) to assess school coverage [ 5.4].
-Uptake by UNFPA and for service delivery in Colombia: The Afghanistan and Nigeria work resulted in WorldPop’s modelling approaches being adopted in the UNFPA census strategy in July 2019 [ 5.5], and the establishment of a new $40M programme, GRID3, where the WorldPop group are funded to support governments in sub-Saharan Africa with modelling and capacity strengthening. As of December 2020, this involves active support to 10 governments, covering 55% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa [ 5.6]. Moreover, through partnerships established with UNFPA, additional modelling efforts continue in collaboration with national governments. This includes the government of Colombia, where the national statistics office, DANE, was unable to complete full enumeration in their 2018 census [ 5.1], depriving many regions of the accurate data required for effective governance and resource allocation. The WorldPop group worked with DANE to develop modelling methods to impute population estimates for unenumerated areas. These were released as national statistics in 2019 [ 5.7] . In Colombia and elsewhere, the data saw “ widespread usage within governments for …health system planning, school placement and census planning” [ 5.1; Dr. Juran, UNFPA].
Following production of the high resolution gridded population datasets produced through disaggregation of administrative unit-based census or official estimates, these were made open access through the WorldPop website, and a range of collaborations and uses followed:
- Disaster relief by UNITAR, FAO and via UN humanitarian data hub: From November 2013 to present, WorldPop’s maps have consistently formed the standard dataset for the Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT) of the UN Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) for assessment of populations impacted by disasters and other events (e.g. the 13.5 million people affected by Cyclone IRMA-17 [ 5.8]), where no other detailed population data exist. They provide the numbers used by response and aid agencies to assess needs and scope budgets. The data also form the core population input to the FAO’s geospatial platform [ 5.8], used to plan food security and agricultural operations. From 2017, collaboration with the UN's Humanitarian Data Exchange enabled population total estimates to be produced globally for UN-recognised boundaries. In 2020, the datasets were downloaded 11,883 times by 4,779 individual users to support humanitarian operations such as aid and healthcare delivery, with 155,000 further downloads via the WorldPop web site [ 5.9].
-Training via UNFPA: In April 2016, the population mapping work was presented by Tatem to heads and representatives of all national statistical offices of the world as the keynote talk at the UN’s Commission on Population and Development [ 5.10]. WorldPop delivered training on data use at UNFPA headquarters in New York, via multiple UN regional workshops for heads of statistical offices, and multiple country capacity strengthening sessions, with cohorts of university staff within GRID3 focus countries trained to deliver future training to governments. This has included co-leading with UNFPA sessions on population modelling for over 50 representatives from the UN and governments in the Arab States region in 2018 and a similar number for the West and Central Africa region in 2019. In 2020, more than 500 government, local university and UN staff attended training run through GRID3. Dr. Juran of UNFPA notes ‘the collaborations with WorldPop have helped UNFPA build important new areas to fulfil one of its key missions in supporting population and housing censuses in all low- and middle-income countries’ [ 5.1].
- International health metrics: The datasets are widely used in the health metrics field, forming the denominator used for many African countries in the World Malaria Reports by WHO in 2016-2019 [ 5.11], the ongoing Local Burden of Disease work [ 5.12] and from 2014, UNFPA's State of the World's Midwifery series [ 5.13]. Such metrics are used to set international funding allocations, strategic priorities and for global advocacy, and reliable and consistent denominators at subnational scales are vital for their production.
-Pandemic response: WorldPop datasets have been widely used in COVID-19 pandemic response. This has included use as the demographic basis for the highly publicised Imperial College and IHME COVID transmission models [ 5.14], which led to the implementation of lockdown measures by the UK and US governments in March 2020. Moreover the datasets form the demographic basis of UNFPA’s COVID-19 Vulnerability platform and UN-OCHA’s COVID-19 Map Explorer [ 5.15]. Via Grid3, WorldPop datasets have been used by at least three African governments in their response efforts [ 5.16].
The research’s impact was recognised in 2020 through the Royal Geographical Society’s Back Award to Prof Tatem “ for leading the development of geospatial and demographic data to assist the work of public policy around the globe”. One award is made annually for geographical studies making an outstanding contribution to national or international public policy [ 5.17].
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1 Testimonial from Dr. Sabrina Juran [Regional Technical Adviser, UNFPA], 8th December 2020.
5.2 Web page by the Nigerian National Primary Healthcare Development Agency [NPHDA]: How Nigeria won the fight against polio: https://nphcda.gov.ng/how-nigeria-won-the-fight-against-polio/ ;
5.3 Nigeria national vaccination tracking system, built using population data constructed by WorldPop: http://vts.eocng.org/ [see Data export menu / Population Estimates / ‘release statement’ link];
5.4 Blog by Nigeria NPHDA and UNFPA Nigeria representatives on GRID3 work undertaken by the WorldPop group: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/undataforum/blog/grid3-nigeria-using-geospatial-infrastructure-in-support-of-decision-making/ [e.g. See Figs (a) and (b)]
5.5 UNFPA (2019): UNFPA Strategy for the 2020 Round of Population & Housing Censuses (2015-2024) https://www.unfpa.org/pcm/node/20099 [See p. 29, final para]
5.6 GRID3: https://grid3.org/about-us, showing the 10 countries where active support to governments is ongoing.
5.7 Colombia national statistics director presenting imputation methods for missing census data: https://www.facebook.com/DANEColombia/videos/768209593625605/. Released national statistics: https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/informacion-tecnica/CNPV-2018-Poblacion-Ajustada-por-Cobertura.xls
5.8 Example analysis by UNOSAT/UNITAR using WorldPop data: https://reliefweb.int/report/antigua-and-barbuda/tropical-cyclone-irma-17-population-exposure-analysis-caribbean-4 [p. 2, para 2 of pdf]. FAO’s geospatial platform: https://data.apps.fao.org/ [click explore data/socioeconomic and demographic/human population density]
5.9 HDx: https://data.humdata.org/organization/worldpop. WorldPop Spatial Data Infrastructure site showing dataset download statistics: https://sdi.worldpop.org/wpdata/downloads.
5.10 Prof. Tatem’s keynote at the UN Commission on Population and Development: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/commission/sessions/2016/index.shtml
5.11 The WHO’s 2019 World Malaria report, using WorldPop data as the denominator for burden estimates: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565721 [see data sources for Fig 3.1 on p. 87]
5.12 Local Burden of Disease work ( http://www.healthdata.org/lbd)
5.13 UNFPA State of the World’s Midwifery reports using WorldPop births and pregnancies data: https://www.unfpa.org/sowmy; https://esaro.unfpa.org/en/publications/state-worlds-midwifery-analysis-sexual-reproductive-maternal-newborn-and-adolescent [See page 11; Table 2]
5.14 Use of WorldPop data for the Imperial College COVID model (see ‘Copyright and licensing’): https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim; and the IHME COVID model: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs. (see ‘Where does IHME obtain its data?’).
5.15 UNFPA’s COVID-19 Vulnerability platform ( https://covid19-map.unfpa.org – click on ‘about’ top right) and UN-OCHA’s COVID-19 Map Explorer ( https://data.humdata.org/visualization/covid19-humanitarian-operations)
5.16 Use of WorldPop data by African governments in COVID-19 response as part of the GRID3 program: Sierra Leone COVID-19 hub (press ‘explore’ under population within 5km of MCHP; then see legend): https://coronavirus-response-moic.hub.arcgis.com/; Zambia: https://grid3.org/news/zambia-partners-with-grid3-to-produce-pop-estimates; Nigeria: https://grid3.org/news/taking-on-covid-19-with-data-nigerias-government-collaborates-with-grid3-on-response-and-prevention
5.17 Royal Geographical Society: 2020 medal and award recipients announced. https://www.rgs.org/geography/news/2020-medal-and-award-recipients-announced/
- Submitting institution
- University of Southampton
- Unit of assessment
- 14 - Geography and Environmental Studies
- Summary impact type
- Societal
- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
Staff at the University of Southampton’s WorldPop research group have used mobile phone network data to produce rich spatio-temporal population mobility metrics that underpinned infectious disease control and disaster relief. There are two main impact strands: (i) quantifying population mobility to target global and regional infectious disease control and elimination strategies (including for malaria, contributing to a 98% fall in cases in northern Namibia, and for COVID-19), and; (ii) mapping displaced populations following major natural disasters, such as the 2015 Nepal earthquake and Hurricane Matthew in Haiti in 2016, to aid swift and effective relief interventions.
2. Underpinning research
In the late 2000’s Tatem was working with the World Health Organization (WHO) and Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) to develop methods and guidelines for countries to assess the feasibility of eliminating malaria. A key issue is the importation of malaria by infected travellers, but at that time no reliable data existed that could quantify such mobility at national scales. Tatem realised that most travellers used a mobile phone, and that the communications and towers they were routed through were being recorded by mobile network operators. Through collaboration with the operators, anonymised mobile data integrated into a disease transmission model enabled estimation of importation rates for the first time (in this first instance to Zanzibar).
Tatem and his WorldPop group have, since 2013, continued to lead in this research area, producing rich records of individual and population level dynamics through space and time, unobtainable through any previous methods, which reveal new insights into human movement patterns. The team has also developed approaches for measuring and accounting for biases in the data to produce population-level insights. In 2014, Tatem oversaw the development of affordable methods for the modelling of population distributions at high spatial resolution from mobile network data, which were then used to capture spatiotemporal population dynamics [ 3.1]. In 2019, Lai developed and tested methods for the use of mobile data in producing national migration statistics [ 3.2]. Population statistics underlie almost all government operations and interventions, but these statistics can be expensive and logistically challenging to collect and update regularly, meaning that many low income countries have to rely on outdated and poor quality data. It is well established that this can lead to challenges in efficient and equitable delivery of health interventions and inaccurate health statistics, resulting in sub-optimal health outcomes and certain populations and regions being left behind, with poor access to care.
The movement of people as carriers of pathogens is critical to disease transmission and spread. Building on Tatem’s work in 2014 using anonymised phone records to identify populations critical in malaria transmission [ 3.3], N. Ruktanonchai developed approaches for mapping population flows and connectivity from these data, based on estimating home locations through frequency of communications and quantifying trips away. In 2016, N. Ruktanonchai then integrated these flows with disease transmission data in mathematical models to map transmission foci and support elimination strategy design in Namibia [ 3.4], through funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and CHAI. Spatial metapopulation models of COVID-19 transmission utilising mobile network data were also built by the team and utilised to examine the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in China [ 3.5] and the effects of coordinating NPIs on COVID-19 dynamics in Europe [ 3.6].
Twenty to thirty million people are displaced every year by natural disasters. During disasters and crises, especially in low income nations, basic information is lacking on the locations of affected people. By measuring residences and typical mobility patterns of mobile users with Call Detail Records (CDRs), then deviations away from these in disaster situations such as earth-quakes and hurricanes, Wilson and Tatem produced rapid, unique and rich insights into the reaction of populations to such events, with application in Nepal, Haiti and Bangladesh [ 3.7, 3.8].
3. References to the research
3.1 Deville, P., Linard, C., Martin, S., Gilbert, M., Stevens, F. R., Gaughan, A. E., ... Tatem, A. J. (2014). Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1408439111
3.2 Lai, S., Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, E., Pezzulo, C., Ruktanonchai, N.W., Sorichetta, A., Steele, J., Li, T., Dooley, C.A. and Tatem A.J. (2019). Exploring the use of mobile phone data for national migration statistics. Nature Palgrave Communications, 5, 34. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0242-9
3.3 Tatem, A. J., Huang, Z., Narib, C., Kumar, U., Kandula, D., P., Deepa K., Smith, D.L., Cohen, J.M., Graupe, B., Uusiku, P. and Lourenco, C. (2014) Integrating rapid risk mapping and mobile phone call record data for strategic malaria elimination planning. Malaria Journal, 13 (52) https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-13-52.
3.4 Ruktanonchai, N. W., DeLeenheer, P., Tatem, A. J., Alegana, V. A., Caughlin, T. T., Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, E., ... Smith, D. L. (2016). Identifying malaria transmission foci for elimination using human mobility data. PLoS Computational Biology, 12(4), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004846
3.5 Lai, S., Ruktanonchai, N.W., Zhou, L., Prosper, O., Luo, W., Floyd, J.R., Wesolowski, A., Santillana, M., Zhang, C., Du, X., Yu, H. & Tatem, A.J. (2020). Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China. Nature, 585, 410–413. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2293-x
3.6 Ruktanonchai, N.W., Floyd, J.R., Lai, S. Ruktanonchai, C.W., Sadilek, A., Rente-Lourenco, P. Ben, X. Carioli, A., Gwinn, J., Steele, J.E., Prosper, O., Schneider, A., Oplinger, A., Eastham, P., Tatem, A.J. (2020). Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe. Science 369 (6510), 1465-1470, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5096
3.7 Lu, X., Wrathall, D., Sundsøy, P., Nadiruzzaman, M., Wetter, E., Iqbal, A., Qureshi T., Tatem, A., Bengtsson, L. (2016). Detecting climate adaptation with mobile network data in Bangladesh: anomalies in communication, mobility and consumption patterns during cyclone Mahasen. Climatic Change, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1753-7
3.8 Wilson R., zu Erbach-Schoenberg E., Albert M., Power D., Tudge S., Gonzalez M., Guthrie S., Chamberlain H., Brooks C., Hughes C., Pitonakova L., Buckee C., Lu X., Wetter E., Tatem A., Bengtsson S. (2016). Rapid and near Real-time Assessments of Population Displacement Using Mobile Phone Data Following Disasters: The 2015 Nepal Earthquake. PLOS Currents Disasters, 8: https://doi/org/10.1371/currents.dis.d073fbece328e4c39087bc086d694b5c.
Funding supporting the research
-Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, $1.5M, 2015-2017, Population demographics and dynamics mapping in Nigeria
-Clinton Health Access Initiative, $500k, 2016-present, Malaria elimination support on population mobility
-Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, $100k, 2016-2017, Mapping poverty using mobile network data.
-Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, $1M, 2019-2020, Seasonal population dynamic mapping.
4. Details of the impact
Shaping new infectious disease control and elimination strategies
In Namibia, limited information meant that the government classified its entire northern region as high risk for malaria and focussed on delivering interventions accordingly to the 1.2 million people living there. However, mapping work led by Tatem from 2013 onwards that integrated satellite, survey and mobile network data, highlighted areas of much higher risk within this northern region for precise targeting [ 5.1]. Namibia’s Mobile Telecommunications Ltd provided the Ministry of Health and Tatem’s WorldPop group with anonymous phone records for more than 2 million users – 70% of the country’s total population – between 2010 and 2014. WorldPop analysed the phone records to track call frequencies and locations, and integrated these with surveillance data to map sources and sinks of malaria parasite movements. Nine billion communications were examined to track aggregated movement patterns in regions where malaria is endemic. With support from the Global Fund and CHAI, in Oct-Dec 2013 the Ministry of Health’s National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme used WorldPop’s risk maps to provide insecticide-treated bednets to the most 80,000 at-risk individuals: ** ‘without the maps produced by WorldPop, the program would simply have reverted to standard practice’* [ 5.2]. The work therefore allowed Namibia’s government to more efficiently use limited funds by targeting interventions to the most vulnerable. Through the partnership, Namibia was able to target its distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets and allocation of community health workers to the Omusati, Kavango and Zambezi regions from October 2013. Until 2004, about 600,000 new malaria cases were reported every year. By 2016, cases had fallen 98% to 14,400 per year as the result of several malaria elimination schemes, including this one [ 5.1]. Elsewhere, subsequent human and parasite mobility models based on mobile data have been used since 2016 in Meso-America (e.g. Nicaragua) and southern Africa (e.g. Mozambique) [ 5.3]. They ‘provided an important basis for [CHAI’s] government support’ [ 5.2] via ongoing analyses of malaria importation and the mapping of sources and sinks to guide cross-border strategy .
Following the analysis and use of mobile network data in sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas, multiple major international policy and strategy documents based their recommendations around the WorldPop team’s methods and examples. These include the Aspiration2Action document co-authored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and UN in 2015 [ 5.4], which underpinned multi-billion investments in international malaria strategies, and in October 2018, the WHO Expert Reference Group Manual on Measuring Receptivity and Vulnerability for Malaria Elimination [ 5.5], which guides country governments aiming for malaria elimination. Aspiration2Action noted ‘combining parasite positivity data with modelling of human movement patterns based on census data and mobile phone call data records [CDRs] …enables malaria interventions to be coordinated for maximum impact and efficiency’. Moreover, in 2015 Tatem presented to the Global Fund in Geneva WorldPop’s analysis on southern Africa malaria connectivity, showing how strongly the region is connected by parasite flows and therefore needs to coordinate malaria elimination activities. Following this, the Global Fund provided its first multi-country regional grant to eight countries in southern Africa to accelerate progress towards malaria elimination [ 5.6]. WorldPop’s adaptation of mobile phone-based mobility methods to COVID-19 applications informed public debate over the pandemic. For example in July 2020, BBC’s Panorama used Tatem, N. Ruktanonchai and Lai’s analysis of population mobility in China in their investigation of the pandemic’s origins, and in May 2020 Chinese State Media reported on the work [ 5.7]. Moreover, the China analyses fed into the design of COVID-19 interventions used by the China CDC. Similar analyses undertaken by Tatem, N. Ruktanonchai and Lai for Europe were used in European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control guidelines provided to all European Union member states and the UK [ 5.8].
Supporting disaster relief operations
In disaster situations, displaced populations tend to be those most vulnerable and in need of aid, but obtaining data on their numbers, locations, and trends remains a major challenge in chaotic post-disaster settings. Flowminder [ 5.9] is a non-profit foundation focussed on the use of mobile network data for international development, of which Tatem is a director and in which he has been instrumental in shaping the direction of the organisation. For many years Nepal has been one of the countries with greatest potential for a devastating earthquake. Given this high potential risk, WorldPop/Flowminder and Ncell (the largest mobile operator in Nepal) agreed a collaboration in December 2014 to be able to respond to potential future earthquakes and to support long-term development objectives in Nepal. The anticipatory project was initiated and rapid response capacity set up in Kathmandu, just one week before the major M7.8 Gorkha earthquake (epicentre ~80km NW of Kathmandu) occurred in April 2015, killing 8,964, injuring 21,952 and making 3.5 million more homeless.
Following the initial earthquake, within two days the WorldPop team produced updated population density maps, including gender and age distributions for the whole of Nepal. These data were used by key relief agencies such as the World Food Program [ 5.10] and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) [ 5.11]. The WorldPop/Flowminder team then combined these population data with the Ncell anonymised data from 12 million mobile phones in Nepal, to quantify the earthquake’s impact on population displacement, producing first reports within four days of the initial quake, thereby providing “ vital information for directing strategies and resource allocation” [ 5.11]. These fed into the multi-stakeholder situation reports used by disaster response agencies to guide their delivery of aid to the displaced populations [ 5.10; 5.11]. As highlighted by Kurt Burja of the UN’s World Food Program [ 5.12], "When the first… report came out after the Nepal earthquake, we used it right away in our national assessment of food security. Displaced people are often the most food insecure. Getting national and district level numbers on displaced populations was thus an important component in our assessment of where to focus support after the earthquake. The (WorldPop/Flowminder) analyses were widely read and circulated in the humanitarian community during the Nepal earthquake disaster response operations." Kimberly Lietz of UN OCHA notes “This data is regularly used in producing analysis for Flash Appeals and Humanitarian Needs Overview documents as part of the Humanitarian Programme Cycle” [ 5.11] . The work was awarded the Global Mobile Award for 'Mobile in Emergency or Humanitarian Situations' in February 2016 [ 5.13], cited as “A brilliant example of how the application of big data analysis to mobile technologies can be used to accelerate emergency aid, and provide intelligence to help prepare for future disasters.” Similar analyses for Hurricane Matthew in Haiti in 2016 in partnership with the World Food Program [ 5.10] were used to guide response efforts, enabling assessment of displaced populations in need of food aid and more effective planning of delivery.
In recognition of his pioneering use of mobile data to track population mobility, the Royal Geographical Society presented its 2020 Back Award to Prof Tatem “for leading the development of geospatial and demographic data to assist the work of public policy around the globe” [ 5.14] . This annual award is for outstanding contributions to national or international policy.
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1 Independent reporting of the impact of the mobile data work in Namibia:
a) Case study by Data Impacts, an initiative led by Open Data Watch (an international non-profit organisation): https://dataimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/phone-records-track-malaria.compressed.pdf [see final paragraph];
b) Article by Apolitical (an inter-governmental organisation running a global learning platform for government) on government network site documenting project impacts: https://apolitical.co/solution_article/phone-records-help-namibia-clamp-malaria
5.2 Testimonial letter from Dr Chris Lourenco (formerly of CHAI, now Deputy Director of Malaria Dept., Population Services International), 8 Dec 2020.
5.3 Description by Vodafone (24 April 2020) of its ongoing project with the Mozambican Ministry of Health and CHAI: https://www.vodafone.com/perspectives/blog/world-malaria-day-2020-vodafone-fighting-malaria
5.4 Report and website co-authored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and UN in 2015 including regional population and malaria connectivity work by the WorldPop team: http://endmalaria2040.org/ (see p. 17, Exhibit 3, Acknowledgements, p. 31)
5.5 WHO Expert Group Reference Manual on Measuring Receptivity and Vulnerability for Malaria Elimination: https://www.who.int/malaria/mpac/mpac-april2019-session7-report-erg-malariogenic-potential.pdf?ua=1 [See p. 20 ‘Conclusions’ for WHO expert group’s adoption of mobile network metrics, following Prof. Tatem’s presentation]
5.6 Article in Aidspan, the independent observer of the Global Fund on the southern Africa malaria elimination grant, using WorldPop’s mapping and analysis (see 8. New regional grant has sights set on malaria elimination in Southern Africa, particularly figure on p. 15): http://www.aidspan.org/sites/default/files/gfo/272/English/GFO-Issue-272.docx
5.7 Media coverage of analysis of population mobility in China:
a) China State Television broadcast of Lai et al.’s work, 8 May 2020 (translation supplied): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfG0ib9jr-Q&list=PLfAyWdGHnLdHpH6_RRNLALpGhXPTUZTh2&index=154;
b) BBC Panorama interview with Tatem, first broadcast 27 July 2020 (see interview at 12:49 in video): https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000k4dq;
5.8 Analysis of population mobility in China feeding into COVID-19 policy:
a) China CDC policy paper citing the work of Lai, Tatem and Ruktanonchai: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31278-2 (see p. 65, para 3);
b) European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2020): Considerations relating to social distancing measures in response to COVID-19 – second update: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-social-distancing-measuresg-guide-second-update.pdf (see p. 5, para 2).
5.9 About Flowminder: https://www.flowminder.org/about-us/
5.10 World Food Programme (2018): Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping: Food security analysis at the World Food Programme. https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000040024/download/ (see p. 3, subsection ‘call detail records’)
5.11 Testimonial letter from Kimberly Lietz, Officer in Charge, Needs and Response Analysis Section, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 8 March 2021.
5.12 https://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/1%20-%20Linus%20Bengtsson.pdf [see p. 23]
5.13 2016 Global Mobile Awards announced: https://www.gsma.com/newsroom/press-release/gsma-announces-winners-of-the-2016-glomo-awards/ Cited quote is from: http://www.mynewsdesk.com/se/handelshogskolan_i_stockholm/pressreleases/sse-researcher-receives-global-mobile-award-for-nepal-earthquake-relief-work-1333291
5.14 Royal Geographical Society: 2020 medal and award recipients announced. https://www.rgs.org/geography/news/2020-medal-and-award-recipients-announced/
- Submitting institution
- University of Southampton
- Unit of assessment
- 14 - Geography and Environmental Studies
- Summary impact type
- Technological
- Is this case study continued from a case study submitted in 2014?
- No
1. Summary of the impact
Research at the University of Southampton has enhanced the European Space Agency (ESA) and European Commission’s (EC) capability to monitor global vegetation from space. Specifically, Southampton’s algorithm underpinned ESA’s development of the only global satellite data product estimating terrestrial chlorophyll content in vegetation in near real-time. Distribution of this data through the ESA and EC’s flagship Copernicus programme has generated major benefits for agricultural and environmental service providers, including timely and targeted response to poor harvests or plant disease outbreaks. Southampton have also developed validation data and protocols that are essential to support quality assurance of satellite-derived vegetation products and ensure their suitability for numerous operational applications, ranging from monitoring biodiversity to drought surveillance.
2. Underpinning research
Chlorophyll content and concentration within a vegetation canopy control the condition and productivity of vegetation. Reliable estimation of vegetation chlorophyll content is vital for those forest and agricultural service providers who monitor crop yields, plant health, seasonality, carbon fluxes and carbon sequestration. Therefore, accurate and near-real-time vegetation chlorophyll content estimation enables timely response to poor harvests or plant disease outbreaks, whilst global chlorophyll content estimates enable improvements in carbon flux modelling and evaluation of vegetation response to climate change.
The European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) satellite sensor was launched in March 2002, aiming primarily at improving our understanding of ocean productivity via measurement of water colour. In 2004, Curran led the development of the algorithm [ 3.1] to exploit MERIS imagery for the estimation of vegetation chlorophyll content. The algorithm uses a specific feature called the ‘red edge’, which is proportional to the vegetation chlorophyll content and can be detected by MERIS. The resultant index, the MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI), can be derived automatically from MERIS imagery and this led to establishment of MTCI as a dedicated ‘land’ product from the MERIS sensor.
MERIS sensor operation ended suddenly in 2012 following unexpected loss of satellite contact, ending generation of the MTCI product. ESA identified a continued need to provide similar quantitative information on vegetation canopy chlorophyll content to the user community through subsequent satellite missions. Based on the foundation of the MTCI algorithm and requirements from many users, Dash led research (Grant B) to develop and validate a second vegetation chlorophyll content product, OTCI [ 3.2] from ESA’s Sentinel-3A optical sensor, launched in 2016. Sentinel-3A is an ocean and land observation satellite that forms part of the European Union’s Copernicus programme, one of the largest and most ambitious space programmes globally. This is the first time the ESA has produced a dedicated operational global vegetation product.
Subsequent research at Southampton and elsewhere demonstrated the superiority of MTCI over alternative satellite-derived products in estimating vegetation chlorophyll content and monitoring vegetation condition. For example, Dash and Ogutu developed a new MTCI-GPP model to estimate terrestrial vegetation primary productivity using estimates of vegetation chlorophyll content derived from the MERIS sensor’s MTCI product [ 3.3]. Further independent research demonstrated the MTCI’s suitability in quantifying vegetation processes such as phenology and productivity. For example, among over 700 papers citing Southampton’s algorithm [ 3.1] is the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, which used MTCI to map forest canopy nitrogen across the Mediterranean region (Loozen et al., 2018).
To be fit for purpose for specific applications, it is essential for satellite-derived products to undergo rigorous validation to assess data accuracy and measurement uncertainty. Through research funded by ESA in 2009 (Grant A), Dash established a new procedure for validation of satellite-derived vegetation chlorophyll content products at various sites [ 3.4]. This procedure is crucial to measuring the accuracy of ESA’s operational vegetation chlorophyll content products, and is delivered to users through the Copernicus programme. Building upon the validation work, Dash, Ogutu and PhD student Luke Brown developed new techniques to analyse time series data and assess the accuracy of satellite-derived land products [ 3.5]. This included: (i) systematic estimation and propagation of uncertainty of in-situ measurements (Grant C) and (ii) establishing for the first time a framework for operational validation of Copernicus land products [ 3.6].
3. References to the research
3.1 Dash, J. and Curran, P. J., 2004, The MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 25, pp-5003-5013. https://doi.org/10.1080/0143116042000274015
3.2 Vuolo, F., Dash, J., Curran, P.J., Lajas, D., & Kwiatkowska, E. (2012). Methodologies and uncertainties in the use of the terrestrial chlorophyll index for the sentinel-3 mission. Remote Sensing, 4, 1112-1133. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs4051112
3.3 Ogutu, B., Dash, J. & Dawson, T.P. (2013). Developing a diagnostic model for estimating terrestrial vegetation gross primary productivity using the photosynthetic quantum yield and Earth Observation data. Global Change Biology, 19, 2878–2892. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12261
3.4 Dash, J., Curran, P., Tallis, M.J., Llewellyn, G., Taylor, G., & Snoeij, P. (2010). Validating the MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI) with ground chlorophyll content data at MERIS spatial resolution. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 31, 5513-5532. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160903376340
3.5 Brown, L.A., Dash, J., Ogutu, B.O. and Richardson, A.D. (2017). On the relationship between continuous measures of canopy greenness derived using near-surface remote sensing and satellite-derived vegetation products . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247, pp.280-292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.08.012
3.6. Brown, L.A., Dash, J., Morris, H.,Pastor-Guzman,J., Lerebourg, C., Lamquin, M., Bai, G., Gobron, N.,Lanconelli, C., and Clerici, M. (2020), Direct validation of global leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) products using the Copernicus Ground Based Observations for Validation (GBOV) dataset, Remote Sensing of Environment, 247, 111935 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111935
Underpinning Funding:
Grant A: 2009-2012, PI Dash, MERIS extended validation and exploratory approach for high resolution optical sensors, ESA, £210,000
Grant B: 2015-2019, UoS PI Dash, Land product calibration and validation for Sentinel 3 Mission performance centre, ESA, £258,000
Grand C: 2017-2021, UoS PI Dash, Ground-based observations for validation (GBOV) of Copernicus global land products, European Commission, £210,000
Reference documenting context to impact – work on MTCI beyond University of Southampton:
Loozen, Y., Rebel, K.T., Karssenberg, D., Wassen, M.J., Sardans, J., Peñuelas, J., De Jong, S.M., 2018. Remote sensing of canopy nitrogen at regional scale in Mediterranean forests using the spaceborne MERIS terrestrial chlorophyll index. Biogeosciences 15, 2723–2742. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2723-2018
4. Details of the impact
Research at the University of Southampton made a key contribution to the European Copernicus programme’s capability to monitor global vegetation by (i) providing near real-time data on global vegetation chlorophyll content that are routinely distributed to users by the ESA, and (ii) establishing an operational validation procedure for vegetation monitoring products. Both of these contributions are vital to meeting the objectives of the Copernicus land monitoring services programme to provide geographical information on the status of vegetation cover to a broad range of users in the field of terrestrial environmental applications, including those in agriculture, food security and forest management.
ESA used Dash’s algorithm to develop a new vegetation data product, the OLCI Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (OTCI). OTCI is based on the Sentinel-3 satellite’s Ocean and Land Imaging spectrometer (OLCI) instrument, and replaced MTCI after MERIS ceased operation in 2012. User demand for a replacement product, coupled with evidence of the Southampton algorithm’s robustness, led ESA to include the ‘red edge’ detection capability offered by OTCI within the mission requirements document for the Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite programme. Since Sentinel 3 was launched in October 2016, ESA has used OTCI as a near real-time, global data product on vegetation chlorophyll content. Dash’s group authored the user guide and algorithm description [ 5.2]. The OTCI is currently (February 2021) the only near-real time, global operational product estimating terrestrial vegetation chlorophyll content. An operational data product is one that ESA has committed to deliver long-term and in near-real time, guaranteeing users its continued and timely production. It is distributed to users free of charge through the Copernicus programme. As ESA states ‘the unique capability of the OTCI algorithm to exploit the red edge position, thus providing accurate information on very high level of chlorophyll contents which cannot be performed by other sensors, put Europe and the European Space Agency and Copernicus Programme in a unique and leading position for monitoring the state of vegetation all over the world” [ 5.1].
During 2017 alone, 2.44 pebibytes (> 1000 terabytes) of Sentinel 3 OTCI data were downloaded from Copernicus’ dissemination system [ 5.3]. Copernicus programme users have deployed OTCI to monitor and manage terrestrial ecosystems, including estimating forest and crop health. As ESA stated “ The innovative product (OTCI) that was developed by Dash’s team now contributes to an overall observation system that allows us to better understand how our planet is evolving and how it is responding to climate change and at the same time allows us to better understand climate change itself” [ 5.1] .
To ensure the quality of their operational data products meets the expected user requirements, in 2016 the European Commission established a new service called the Ground-Based Observations for Validation (GBOV). Southampton’s research on the ground-based validation of satellite-derived vegetation data products [ 3.3, 3.4] led to Dash’s group writing an Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for the European Commission specifying validation procedures for three other vegetation products – leaf area index, LAI; fraction of vegetation cover, FVC; and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, FAPAR [ 5.4]. Dash’s group led the validation of the vegetation component [ 5.5] and from 2017, conducted one of the largest and most comprehensive ground validation exercises globally, processing ground data across the world to determine the products’ accuracy as part of ESA’s Sentinel-3 Validation Team. In 2017, ESA noted ‘Feedback from the Sentinel-3 Validation Team meeting provided essential information to ESA and EUMETSAT to progress with the evolution and improvement of Sentinel-3's core data products’ [ 5.5]. The validation data are now being routinely used by the European Commission (EC) to ensure the operational products meet user requirements. The EC has noted that they ‘… reproduce well the changes due to drought and wet conditions in Europe, as well as the realism of the temporal variation over specific events around the globe’ [ 5.6]. Since 2017, the EC has delivered these three products – LAI, FVC, FAPAR – through the Copernicus programme to users worldwide. They are used by more than 6,000 organisations and users worldwide for a wide range of applications ranging from monitoring biodiversity to drought surveillance [ 5.7]. For example, the EC’s Joint Research Centre uses Copernicus FAPAR and LAI product as key inputs to the Europe-wide Monitoring Agriculture ResourceS (MARS) crop early warning programme [ 5.8], which supports the Common Agricultural Policy and food security assessments worldwide.
In addition to ensuring the quality of the three satellite-based vegetation products [ 5.4], the Copernicus programme has distributed the ground-based GBOV validation data set produced by Dash’s group since October 2018. The GBOV data are the largest ground data set for in-depth quality assessment of any satellite-derived vegetation product. Since their release in 2019, they have been downloaded by more than 300 users worldwide [ 5.9]. Through such downloads, users have applied Southampton’s ground data to accuracy assessment of other satellite-derived vegetation data products (e.g. those from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor) alongside the data products distributed through the Copernicus programme [ 5.10].
Meanwhile, users have also benefitted significantly from implementing Dash’s chlorophyll algorithms independently of ESA. For example, in 2018 the World Bank reviewed the performance of algorithms for their prediction of crop yields from satellite data and recommend use of MTCI for countrywide maize crop yield estimates in Uganda, noting ‘the superior performance of MTCI is noteworthy’ [p. 17] and ‘The large boost in performance when using MTCI with Sentinel2 therefore more than outweighed any loss in accuracy from using coarser resolution’ [ 5.11].
The MTCI and OTCI algorithms developed at the University of Southampton thus formed the basis for innovative and robust data products for global vegetation monitoring which help the European Commission to deliver part of its flagship Copernicus programme. These data products provide accurate and timely information for users to monitor and manage both crops and our terrestrial biosphere.
5. Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1 Testimonial from Head of Sensor Performance, Products and Algorithms, ESA
5.2 Sentinel-3 OLCI online user guide, ESA: https://earth.esa.int/web/sentinel/user-guides/sentinel-3-olci/product-types/level-2-land
5.3 SERCO (2018): Sentinel 3 Data Access 2017 Annual Report. ESA report COPE-SERCO-RP-17-0186 (see page 30, figure 38 for Sentinel-3 download statistics): https://scihub.copernicus.eu/twiki/pub/SciHubWebPortal/AnnualReport2017/COPE-SERCO-RP-17-0186_-_Sentinel_Data_Access_Annual_Report_2017-Final_v1.4.1.pdf
5.4 Brown L and Dash J (2018): Ground-Based Observations for Validation (GBOV) of Copernicus Global Land Products.Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document - Vegetation Products LP3 (LAI), LP4 (FAPAR), and LP5 (FCOVER). Copernicus Programme https://gbov.acri.fr/public/docs/products/GBOV-ATBD-LP3-LP4-LP5_v1.2-Vegetation.pdf
5.5 ESA: Sentinel-3 Validation Team forge ahead with satellite data, March 2017 (PDF supplied)
5.6 Sanchez-Zapero J., Perez, L, and Fuster, B.: Copernicus Global Land Operations Vegetation and Energy: Scientific Quality Evaluation – LAI, FAPAR, FCOVER Collection. Copernicus programme report no. CGLOPS1_SQE2018_LAI300m_V1 (PDF supplied, see page 14).
5.7 Copernicus global land service – product user statistics: https://land.copernicus.eu/global (see ‘in the picture’, bottom of page)
5.8 Copernicus programme (2019): Copernicus Global Land Service Use Case – Crop monitoring in Europe. https://land.copernicus.eu/global/sites/cgls.vito.be/files/use-cases/CGLOPS_UC_JRC-MARS_I1.00_1.pdf
5.9 Ground-Based Observations for Validation (GBOV) of Copernicus Global Land Products [download statistics]: https://land.copernicus.eu/global/gbov/statistics
5.10 Testimonial from Director of Copernicus land services, EC, on the use of GBOV.
5.11 Lobell, D., Azzari G., Burke, M., Gourlay, S., Jin, Z., Kilic, T., Murray, S. (2018): Eyes in the Sky, Boots on the ground: assessing satellite and ground-based approaches to crop yield measurement and analysis in Uganda. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8374 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/556261522069698373/pdf/WPS8374.pdf